Here we go....week 2 of BACATOLOGY and actually moved Illinois from lock status back onto the bubble
ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Alabama, Duke*, Florida
TWO SEEDS: Houston*, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Michigan State*
THREE SEEDS: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Arizona, Iowa State
FOUR SEEDS: Texas Tech, Purdue, St John’s*, Michigan
FIVE SEEDS: Missouri, Marquette, Maryland, Mississippi State
SIX SEEDS: Kansas, Mississippi, Clemson, Oregon
SEVEN SEEDS: UCLA, Louisville, Saint Mary's*, Memphis*
EIGHT SEEDS: Creighton, New Mexico*, Illinois, Connecticut
NINE SEEDS: Utah State, BYU, West Virginia, Nebraska
TEN SEEDS: Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Baylor, San Diego State
ELEVEN SEEDS: VCU*, Vanderbilt, Arkansas/Wake Forest, Texas/Indiana
TWELVE SEEDS: UC San Diego*, Drake*, Yale*, McNeese State*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: Akron*, High Point*, Lipscomb*, Utah Valley State*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: Jacksonville State*, Chatanooga*, James Madison*, Towson*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Central Connecticut State*, Montana*, Bryant*, Robert Morris*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Norfolk State*, SE Missouri*, Marist*/Southern*, Omaha*/American*
LAST 4 IN: WAKE FOREST, INDIANA, TEXAS, ARKANSAS
FIRST 4 OUT: OHIO STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, SMU, BOISE STATE
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES
SEC: 13
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
31 AQs indictate by asterik *
37 at large bids. I am locking in schools all the way down to the Creighton on the 8 seed line.
That takes cares of 22 at larges leaving only 15 open and 33 schools competing for them
IN
(23) ILLINOIS 17-11: The Illini seemingly a lock for months and even at one point on the 4/5 line have struggled mightily the last 6 weeks dropping 7 of their last 11 and adding just 1 Q1 win during that time. That 43 point loss to Duke at MSG was ugly and it came on the heels of a 21 point loss to Wisconsin which came on the heels of a 14 point home loss to Michigan State. Illinois can do this the easy way or the hard way. Very simple. Beat Iowa and they are locked in and will finish no worse than 18-13. Record aside the metrics are pretty impressive here. Beyond the strong overall NET at 23, they are 6-10 in Q1 with wins over Wisconsin, at Oregon, UCLA and Missouri/Arkansas OOC plus an additional win over suddenly in the field Indiana. That gives them a strong 6 wins vs teams projected in plus an additonal win over first out Ohio State. 5-1 in Q2 makes for a stong 11-11 in Q1/2. That home loss to USC could move to Q3 soon. The SOS is awesome at 6 overall and 20 non conference. The SOR/WAB at 38/33 are very favorable. The Illini have done more than enough on paper to make the field. The fly in the ointment is what happens if they lose to Iowa and then lose at Michigan and lose to Purdue. They would then sit at 17-14 and a poor 11-14 in Q1/2/3 games. Would the sheer strength of their wins and weakness at the cut line of the bubble overcome a potential 17-15 or 18-15 mark. Michigan at 17-14 made the tourney a few years back with similar strong schedule strength. Would not to put themselves in a spot where they fall into the last 4 in and then put themselves at the mercy of potential bid stealers.
(37) CONNECTICUT 18-9: While its very unlikely the Huskies are close to being worried about making the field, they will still have to take care of business to get a lock from me. 5-5 in Quad 1 highlighted by wins over Gonzaga/Baylor/Texas in non conference play and 2 key road wins at Marquette and Creighton. Quad 2 shows wins over bubbles Xavier and Nova. The Quad 3 loss vs Seton Hall is pretty reprehensible but will not matter unless the Huskies lose to the Pirates in the season finales. With 4 games left, one in each quad, UConn is one win away from locking in even with their WAB a wobbly 42. Currently slated on the 8/9 line, that could be a nightmare for one of one seeds.
(33) UTAH STATE 23-4: Aggies look in very good shape right now following a Q2 home win over San Diego State completing a sweep of the Aztecs. 3-1 in Q1 a bit thin but that includes a key win over WCC AQ St Mary's. A fine 7-3 in Q2 puts theirQ1/2 at a strong 10-4. Besides the SDSt win there are wins over Boise/Col State and also decent mid major North Texas and a loss to Big West AQ San Diego. Yes just 3 wins vs the field is light and they did go 0-2 vs league leading New Mexico. Still no bad losses and a guady 23-4 mark. The SOR/WAB at 29/28 indicate all systems are a go. Probably can feel safe just by beating Air Force in the finale but would help their seeding if they can win one or both of tricky road trip to Boise and Col State before that.
(29) BYU 19-8: Cougars have had a very productive 2 weeks picking up 3 Quad 1 victories to soar into the field well above the bubble fray. Now 4-7 in Q1 with wins over Baylor, Kansas at WVU and their biggest on Saturday a high level Q1 road win at Arizona. BYU has done alot to overcome the Q1 road losses to Big 12 bubblers like Cincy, Utah, TCU. In Quad 2 they are 4-1 with wins over Cincy and UCF. No bad losses and 13-8 in Q1/2/3. Very very solid profile right now. The SOS OOC just 299 and best win there is only NC State but thats really the only negative. SOR/WAB at 32/35 scream yes. A tricky last 4 will determine seeding where 1 win locks them in...at ASU/WVU/at ISU/Utah.
(48) WEST VIRGINIA: 16-11: Some really good stuff here. 4 high level Q1 wins: Iowa State, Arizona, Gonzaga and Kansas. Additionally a sweep over Cincy completes the 5-9 Q1 mark and 8-11 Q1/2. 3-0 in Q3 evens things out at 11-11 and note no real bad losses.. However with 3 losses in their last 4 are starting to move toward that murky territory where they want to be 18-13 and not 17-14 when the regular season ends. That will mean a 2-2 finish. Tricky end with home games with TCU and UCF sandwiched around trips to the Utah schools. The SOR/WAB at 40/37 is good enough for now but WVU would do themselves well to finish strong and not find out what could go wrong.
(54) NEBRASKA 17-10: The Huskers loss at Penn State was just a Q2 but it was a bad loss in the sense Nebby had their clocks cleaned vs a team that had lost 11 of 12. Licking their wounds they come back home for 3 of 4. Nebby still has a fairly strong profile. 5-8 in Q1 with road wins at Oregon/Creighton. Additional Q1 home wins over UCLA/Illinois and in Q2 the wins over bubblicious Indiana and Ohio State. 4-2 in Q2 and note the Rutgers loss has moved out of Q3 for now. 11-10 vs Q1/2/3 keeps them above the rest of the real bubble fray. he SOR/WAB at 42/40 could indicate some troubles if the Huskers do not get at least a split of their last 4. Very doable stretch with Michigan tonight followed by Minnesota, at Ohio State and finishing with Iowa.
(10) GONZAGA 21-8: Zags are scandalous with an overall NET of 10 but simply without the resume to back it up. Just 2-6 in Quad 1 games. Those wins are over projected 10 seeds Baylor and San Diego State in non conference play. They were swept by the Gaels of St Marys. 4-2 in Q2 does show a win over last 2 in Indiana. Losses in league play to Oregon State and Santa Clara are unsual for the Zags. 15 of their 21 wins are comiing from Q3/4. Even the SOR/WAB raise the alarm at 51/48. The Zags are no sure thing especially since their last 2 are a 2 tricky Q1 road games at Santa Clara who they lost to at home and at San Francisco. What if they lose both...that would drop them to just 2-8 in Q1 and 6-10 in Q2. That scenario likely bounces them from the field.
a
(51) OKLAHOMA 17-10: Sooners stopped the bleeding of 5 losses in a row and improved on that hideous 3-10 conference mark by picking up a much needed Q1 home win over Mississippi State. That win goes a long way to stabilizing their profile which has some really nice stuff on it. Now 5-8 in Q1 with 4 high level wins over Arizona, Michigan, Louisville OOC that is about as fine as you will find from any school anywhere. Throw in the additional win at Arkansas, the Miss State win and the previous home win over Vandy, the Sooners now have an impressive 6 wins vs the field. 10-10 in Q1/2/3. SOR/WAB of 39/34 is very willing. There is one bad loss to LSU. Conference records do not matter. OU has major wins here. Its likely they will need to just one in the last 4 to secure a spot. Certainly a tough stretch though.. KY/at Ole Miss/Mizzou/at Texas.
(30) BAYLOR 15-11: The Bears find themselves sinking to just 4 games above 500 needing to maybe go 2-2 the rest of the way to feel safe. Bears are 5-9 in Q1 but only one high level win vs St Johns. Additional quality wins over Kansas, bubble Arkansas and in Q2 WVU give them 4 wins vs the field. 3-2 in Q2 puts them at 8-11 but they still are sub 500 at 10-11 in Q1/2/3 so they really need to go 2-2 or better. SOS is 4/12 so that is an asset and SOR/WAB looks good for now at 37/36. Its a tricky finish with a trip to Cincy/TCU with home games vs Ok State and a coveted one vs Houston.
(49) SAN DIEGO STATE 17-7: Aztecs for some reason do not have that good of an overall net despite some pretty solid stuff overall on the profile. For starters the non conference sos is 7 and that due to the Vegas tourney where they went 2-1 with a feather in their cap win over Houston plus Creighton and losing to Oregon. They lost to Gonzaga but have a sneaky good win over Big West AQ UC San Diego. Its MWC league play where they havent shined as bright going 0-3 vs New Mex/Utah State and a bad Q3 loss to UNLV. They did sweep fellow bubble Boise and split with Colorado State. 4-5 in Q1 and 3-1 in Q2 makes for a passable 7-6 Q1/2. New Mexico at home up next and that is the kind of win that could lock them in as long they avoid landmines in their last 3 which includes a dangerous trip to UNLV.
(43) VANDERBILT 18-9: Vandy got a big Q1 home win over Ole Miss Saturday and this is a nice little resume. Yes just 3-8 vs Q1 but those wins include 2 high level Kentucky and Tennessee to go along with Ole Miss. In Q2 they are 4-1 with a win over Texas plus a neutral site win over TCU. SOR/WAB at 34/32 is very very encouraging. What I like about their resume vs other SEC bubble is that its clean AND their record of 18-9 is avoidng the bulky loss total. Yes I am aware some of that is because of an atrocious sos of 321 non conference. That I do not like and I do not like they are just 2-6 on the road with those wins to bad teams like LSU and Va Tech. Down the stretch if they can pick up a Q1/2 road win they should be looking good. Still likely a split of their last 4 likely gets them in. Last 4 is at A&M/Mizzou/Arky/at Ga
(40) ARKANSAS 16-11: It is starting to come together for Calipari's crew. The win over Missouri Saturday was their 4 Q1 win...all of them high level. Now 4-9 with additional wins at Kentucky, Texas and neutral court over Michigan. Yes there is still work to be done as they are just 1-2 in Q2 that leave them 5-11 in Q1/2 and that sole win over Georgia is losing its cache by the day. They do get to 9-11 in Q1/2/3 and further in Q3 there is a win over ASun AQ Lipscomb but they will have to close that gap in the last 4 to remain in the field. Texas/at SC/at Vandy/MSU remain so plenty of opportunity and getting that Q1 at home vs MSU is going to be the key one. The SOR of 47/43 has them right on the edge right now.
(38) TEXAS 16-11: Longhorns are in a precarious spot. Losing at South Carolina is just a Q2 but the Cocks were 0-13 in SEC play coming into that game. Its a bad loss period. Texas currently has 4 wins vs the field. How much can they squeeze out of very good home wins over Kentucky, Missouri and Texas A&M. There is a road win at Oklahoma that completes the 4-8 Q1 mark. Yet they are just 3-3 in Q2 for a 7-11 mark in Q1/2 and only 2-0 in Q3 to put them at 9-11. Their best OOC win is just St Joes and they lost to bubble Ohio State. That non conference sos of 290 is terrible. SOR/WAB at 52/45 is quite wobbly right now. Horns going to have to get 2 wins down the stretch all against tough teams jockeying for position....at Arky/Ga/at MSU/OK.
(56) INDIANA 16-11: Nothing screams a soft and weak bubble more than the Hoosiers landing in the field after rallying to beat Purdue. Make no mistakes its a great win and it adds to another great win at Michigan State. Yet beyond that the Hoosiers have not accomplished much. Their next best win of Ohio State is now projected out of the field. Just 4-11 in Q1 and Penn State win there does not move any needles. They are 3-0 in Q2 but that just shows wins over medicority like Rutgers, USC and Providence. It does get them to 7-11 in Q1/2 and they do get to 11-11 in Q1/2/3 which is better than pretty much all of the bubble out. Yet do not discount no loss outside Q1 right now and its a big plus. The SOR/WAB is a bit cloudy at 50/47. Hoosiers who havent even clinched a Big 10 tourney spot still need to do more to remain in the field. Its a very doable schedule at PSU/at Wash/at Oreg/OSU. The last game in particular could be for all the marbles as a Big 10 bubble buster play in game.
(63) WAKE FOREST 19-8: Wake in my field is why I do not want NCAA tourney expansion. This is painful and troublesome to fill this last spot. Resume wise the Deacons are not deserving yet you almost think a 4th ACC school will be slotted as they usual are. Wake has the ever slight advantage right now over UNC and SMU. At 63 they have the worst NET of any at large. Just 2-6 in Quad 1 which includes just one win vs a projected NCAA team in Michigan. There is an additonal win over SMU. Note the loss to bubble Xavier. Q2 is better at 5-1 showing wins over UNC, Pitt, Stanford and Minny. Hardly bid worthy right. Now they are 6-1 in Q3 ( a bad loss home loss to Florida State) which puts them at 13-8 in Q1/2/3 and those kind of numbers usually get strong consideration from the ACC. The SOS of 59/50 are workable and even the SOR/WAB of 33/39 surprisingly indicate a yes. Yes its an ACC thing going on and Bubba from UNC is going to make sure at least 4 get in. In the end it may not be Wake but rest assured the ACC is going to get that 4th hell or high water and dont forget there is history of ACC tourney bid stealers.
OUT
(34) OHIO STATE 15-13: The Buckeyes have now dropped under the Mendoza line which says you have to be more than 2 games above 500 to get an at large. No its not set in stone but ignoring the wacky shortened covid year in 2021, the last 2 games above .500 school to get an at large was Georgia in 2001 at 16-14 with a sick ass schedule. Also working against them is that its historically very rare (although not impossible) to make the field with 15 losses. Its been done not in the last 5 years but within the last 10 years by Alabama. Florida and Vandy. One thing to note going forward is the impact that conference consolidation could play in the "old rules" when it comes to amount of losses and games above .500 and its likely to be put the test this season with several schools. As for the Buckeyes, they still have a strong Quad 1 mark of 5-9 with wins over Kentucky OOC, a win at Purdue, and Maryland. All 3 of them high level Q1 wins you will not find on the bubble out list. Their is an additional key neutral site win over bubble in Texas giving OSU 4 wins vs schools projected in the field. The Q2 mark isnt that great at 3-4 showing losses to bubble Indiana but more egregious losses to Minnesota and a 21 point home loss to Northwestern. Those are 2 losses if they didnt have they would be almost locks to be in the field at 17-11 but here they are. Its just 8-13 vs Q1/2, no bad losses but Q1/2/3 is just 9-13 and that is a big big red flag...historically no bueno. The SOR/WAB down to 55/52 is alarming. 3 games left...at USC, Nebraska and at Indiana in which could be a bubble play in/play out game. Win all 3 and they are dancing, win 2 of 3 and at 17-14 this will be the test of whether the committee will give a nod to the unwiedly conferences with 18 schools. Certainly will make my job harder playing a guessing game.
(45) NORTH CAROLINA 17-11: Could it be once again the Tar Heels NCAA hopes rest with knocking off bitter rival Duke in the season finale. That win would be worth about 2 wins for a resume screaming out for help. The 1-10 Quad 1 mark is brutal no doubt. Heels scheduled strong at #5 OOC but lost all but one vs UCLA. Losses to Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Michigan State, Kansas yikes...did they really need to schedule all that. To make matters worse UNC also went 0-5 in the ACC Q1 games losing all of them on the road even to lesser like Pitt and Wake. Quad 2 does seem like a bright spot at 5-0 with wins over bubble out SMU, Pitt and Dayton. 6-1 in Q3 does get that Q1/2/3 up to 12-11 but that one Q3 home loss to Stanford spoils a clean resume. SOR/WAB are borderline right at the cut at 44/46. Before Duke they will have to take down Q2 road FSU and bottom feeder Q3 at Va Tech and Q4 Miami. Get to 21-11 with that 2nd Q1 win and 8-10 in Q1/2 and 15-11 in Q1/2/3 is probably going to land them in the field.
(39) SMU 20-7: 20 wins in the ACC and a solid 39 NET does not matter much anymore. Such is the dilemma the Mustangs find themselves in the ACC where it is tough to find Q1 and Q2 opportunities. SMU at 0-5 in Q1 and that should be but may not be a non starter. They missed their last chance at one by losing at home to Clemson. SMU is now 0-5 vs the top 5 schools in the ACC somehow only getting each of those just once. With just Q2 roads vs also rans and Q3s left, there is virtually nothing SMU can do to gain a quality win. They just need to win their last 4 and get to 24-7 and 7-2 in Q2 and 12-0 iin Q3 to put them at 19-7 in Q1/2/3 and hope that the astonishing Quad 3 work is enough to give them a look. Have seen profiles like this before get in so I would not read too much in the 0-5 Q1 stuff vs the 19-7 potential in Q1/2/3 especially from the ACC with Bubba sitting on the committee and I know UNC will be one of the bubbles along with Wake they will be compared to. Does a school whose best win is Pitt deserve to be in the tournament?
(46) BOISE STATE 18-8: Broncs are coming on although its very likely that to get in they will have to bump out one of the other MVC bubbles as I just do not think the conference has the cache it had in other seasons. There is some good stuff here. Non conference wins over Clemson and St Mary's highlight the just okay 3-5 Q1 mark. 3-1 in Q2 shows the recent quality win over MWC AQ New Mexico. 6-6 is not too bad for those 2 quadrants but 2 losses is Q3 may be one too many. The neutral site loss to Wash State isnt so bad and not far from Q2 but that awful loss to BC could prove poisonous. The NET is decent at 46 but the SOR/WAB do not back it up as both are at 58. The big bounty awaits with an upper level Q2 home game looming with Utah State. A win there plus winning out the last 3 against 2 bottom feeders and a Q2 home game with Colorado State could have the Boise prospects looking brighter.
(53) XAVIER 18-10: Muskateers continue to be the little engine that could taking care of business and avoiding landmines. Winners of 4 straight there is nothing that impressive about their resume but there is something to be said for being clean. A bad 1-9 in Q1 with just a win at Marquette there plus a loss to bubble TCU. The Q2 mark is 5-1 and shows wins over UConn and Wake and they did split with Nova. Their 11-10 mark in Q1/2/3 keeps them in the discussion as a legit 5th option from the Big East. Probably would want that Gtown road loss back. Their path lies with scoring a Q2 home win over Creighton and then taking care of Q2 road Butler and Q3 Providence. Do that and at 21-10, I cannot guarantee they will float theor way into the field but they will certainly be in strong consideration just in or just out either way.
(41) GEORGIA 16-11: With each day, the Bulldogs resume continues to droop and fade. UGA has now dropped 9 of their last 11, a 6 week stretch with no Q1/2 wins. Their Q1 mark sits at a frightening 2-11 led by a home win over Kentucky and a neutral site OOC win over St Johns. Sure those are very good wins but beyond that there is just a home win over Oklahoma in Q2 vs schools projected in the field. The Q1/2 mark is an unacceptable 5-11. The best thing you can say is there are no bad losses, in fact no losses outside Quad 1. Non conference sos of 244 does not help nor the 1-7 road mark that sticks out like a sore thumb. The SOR/WAB is hanging in there at 48/44 but it is clear that Georgia is solid step or two behind the other 4 SEC bubbles projected just in the field. Their try at Auburn wasnt bad but it was still a loss and now can they pick up at least one Q1 win and 2 Q2s in their last 4...Fla, at Texas, at SC and Vandy. Short of that I see them headed to Vegas for the Crown Consolation.
(74) TCU 15-12: Horned Frogs have no margin for error after falling at Cincy over the weekend. 4-8 in Q1, 6-12 in Q1/2 and 10-12 in Q1/2/3 put them in play. Their resume is sneaky good despite their poor overall NET. 4 wins vs the field over Texas Tech, at Baylor, BYU and WVU. There is an important OOC win over bubble Xavier. Yet also a bunch of losses to distant bubbles like Santa Clara, UCF, and Colorado State. TCU will have to sweep their last 4...not impossible with 2 Q1 games one at home to Baylor and at WVU with Q3 games at Colorado and home to Kansas State. The path is there but can they take it.
(44) CINCINNATI 16-11: Bearcats are hanging around but do not see how they can overome their abominable 1-19 Quad 1 mark. There is just a home win over BYU and its their only win vs a school projected in the field. Q2 is strong at 8-2 to push their overall Q1/2 to 9-11 and that is likely why their NET is solid at 44. There are good not great wins here over bubbles Xavier and TCU and distant bubbles Dayton, UCF and Utah plus a loss to bubble Nova. No bad losses per se but its not like the non conference sos at 272 and the sor/wab at 56/59 really back up that overall NET mark. Cincy can make their mark in the last 2 weeks with a home Q1 game vs Baylor, a high end Q1 road game at Houston, a low end Q2 road game at OK State and a Q3 home game vs KSU. If if and its a big if the Cats can win 3 of 4, they will certainly be in consideration but if they really want to vault into the field, its almost mandatory to get that win at Houston too.
(62) COLORADO STATE 18-9: I suppose the Rams deserve some consideration at this point. At 12-4 in the MWC, they actually are in 3rd ahead of fellow bubbles San Diego State and Boise State. Truthfully their Q1 stuff is abhorrent at 1-5 with a low end road win at Nevada the highlight. In Quad 2, they are 5-3 with some interesting wins over San Diego State, Boise State and their best OOC win TCU. That loss to UC Riverside in Q3 is quite costly. Yet there is a path for them with a home game with Utah State and a trip to Boise, 2 Quad 1 wins there could put them very close to the cut line as long as they also take care of business vs San Jose State and at Air Force. Interested to see what happens here.
(61) SAN FRANCISCO 21-7: Tough sell trying to make a case for the Dons. The best you can say is they have not lost outside Q2. 1-5 in Q1 and 2-2 in Q2 for 3-7 does not inspire confidence with 17 of 21 wins fromQ3/4 including a whopping 12 from Quad 4. Highlighting the resume is the Quad 1 home win over projected WCC St Mary's. In Q2 there are additional quality home wins over bubbles Boise and Santa Clara (who they split with). A loss to Bradley thrown in there and Washington State thrown in there. The Dons will fiinish with a Q2 road game at Oregon State and then a home finale with NET darling Gonzaga where a win will boost their metrics signficantly. Will that really be enough? I do not think so.
(50) VILLANOVA 16-12: If only the Wildcats did not suffer that gruesome Q4 home loss to Columbia...or 2 Q3 losses to Virginia/Georgetown. That is the kind of stuff that just torpedoes any realistic hope of Nova making an at large case. There are some solid wins here...St Johns, Creighton, UConn and two over bubbles Cincy and Xavier but 2-6 in Q1 and 6-9 in Q1/2 is pretty middling and its not enough to overcome 3 bad losses. Their 2-7 road mark does not help either and blowing that huge lead at UConn was a missed opportunity. Just 1 Q2 road game left at Butler and 2 Q3s Gtown/at SHU and these games will do absolutely nothing for their profile.
(55) PITTSBURGH 16-11: Panthers loss at Notre Dame over the weekend counts as a Q2 loss but make no mistake its a bad loss for a school with a bad resume to begin with. Just not much flesh here. A woeful 1-8 in Q1 with that sole win over Ohio State a team no longer projected in the field. 3-2 in Q2 gets them to just 4-10 in Q1/2 and there is a win over WVU, their only win vs a school projected in the field and North Carolina. There is a Q3 loss at Virginia but that Q3 mark gets them to 10-11 in Q1/2/3 but truth be told, there are 3 better options from the ACC ahead of them. Pitt is in an impossible spot with just a Q2 road game vs NC State and Q1 road game at Louisville that can bolster their resume and that simply will not be enough.
(76) DAYTON 17-9: Flyers can only extract so much from the OOC wins over Marquette and fading Connecticut. Good wins but they are not THAT good given Dayton has really failed to follow up in the rest of their non conference or in league play. Losses to bubbles UNC, Cincy and 0-2 vs VCU/Geo Mason. Just 8-6 in a mediocre league with their best win being a road Q2 win at St Louis. 2-3 in Q1 and 4-8 in Q1/2 just does not cut it and there is a really bad Q3 loss to UMass. 13 of 17 wins coming from Q3/4 says alot. They have a Q2 road game at URI that will not move the needle much and close the season at VCU which will be a Q1 opportunity but this resume is a hard sell.
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(52) SANTA CLARA 19-10: The Broncs have some nice things here but the 3 Q3 losses ruin everything. 2-4 in Q1 with wins at Gonzaga and projected Southland AQ Mc Neese State. 4-3 in in Q2 to bring the mark to 6-7 Q1/2 isnt bad and show wins over bubble TCU and split with San Francisco. It is likely just one or two too mainly Q3 losses...the home loss to Stanford isnt that bad but throw in a loss to North Dakota State and worst of all Loyola Marymount and you see the problem here. Not a clean profile like Gonzaga or San Fran or Indiana or the SEC bubbles. There is another crack at Gonzaga to go so that will help I suppose but looks like they are headed to the NIT.
(65) GEORGE MASON 20-6: The Patriots lost at VCU and dropped out of first in the A10. Despite their gaudy mark in league play at 12-2 and 20-6 overall, its just tough to find anything here to make an at large case for. 0-3 in Q1 with losses to Duke, Marquette, and VCU. The Q2 mark is okay at 5-1 but are road wins at Dayton, St Bonnies, Davidson, GW, and St Louis tourney worthy. Looming large are two bad losses..one in Q3 to East Carolina but an inexcusable Q4 home loss to Central Michigan. Only Q3s and 4s left on the schedule so they just better go out and win the A10 tourney.
(73) UTAH 15-12: Utes realistic chances likely went down the crapper with their loss at UCF. 2 good wins over Kansas and BYU just are not enough. The win at bubbles TCU and home to Cincy are nice but they need much more. 3-9 in Q1 and an embarrassig 4-12 in Q2...add in the Q3 and that only gets them to 7-12. They will need a sweep of their last 4 to stay in contention which means winning at Arizona and BYU and holding serve at home vs ASU and WVU. I do not see it.
(67) UC IRVINE 22-5: Anteaters dropped a home game to Cal St Northridge last week, their 3rd Q3 loss and that effectively has ended any at large hopes. While their counterparts UC San Diego will be an attractive at large selection if it comes down to it, Irvine just lacks any beef and the 3 Q3 losses is a non starter given just 1-0 in Q1 over UC San Diego and 2-2 in Q2. 19 wins coming from Q3/4 and only one Q2 road game remains. Will be a legit contender though to win the Big West touney and nab the AQ.
(78) UCF 14-13: Have to be at least a game over 500 to be on my bubble consideration list and the Knights barely qualify here after a low end Q2 home win over Utah. Its a longshot at best but their path rests through 2 Q1 road games at TCU/WVU and 2 Q3 home games vs Kan State and Ok State, if they can get all 4 I suppose they will receive some consideration. There are some good wins here at Texas Tech and a occ home win over Texas A&M. However they are just 3-9 in Q1 and a hideous 5-13 in Q1/2 with a win over bubble TCU thrown in there. 9-13 in Q1/2/3. No margin of error but even then likely not enough.
ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Alabama, Duke*, Florida
TWO SEEDS: Houston*, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Michigan State*
THREE SEEDS: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Arizona, Iowa State
FOUR SEEDS: Texas Tech, Purdue, St John’s*, Michigan
FIVE SEEDS: Missouri, Marquette, Maryland, Mississippi State
SIX SEEDS: Kansas, Mississippi, Clemson, Oregon
SEVEN SEEDS: UCLA, Louisville, Saint Mary's*, Memphis*
EIGHT SEEDS: Creighton, New Mexico*, Illinois, Connecticut
NINE SEEDS: Utah State, BYU, West Virginia, Nebraska
TEN SEEDS: Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Baylor, San Diego State
ELEVEN SEEDS: VCU*, Vanderbilt, Arkansas/Wake Forest, Texas/Indiana
TWELVE SEEDS: UC San Diego*, Drake*, Yale*, McNeese State*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: Akron*, High Point*, Lipscomb*, Utah Valley State*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: Jacksonville State*, Chatanooga*, James Madison*, Towson*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Central Connecticut State*, Montana*, Bryant*, Robert Morris*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Norfolk State*, SE Missouri*, Marist*/Southern*, Omaha*/American*
LAST 4 IN: WAKE FOREST, INDIANA, TEXAS, ARKANSAS
FIRST 4 OUT: OHIO STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, SMU, BOISE STATE
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES
SEC: 13
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
31 AQs indictate by asterik *
37 at large bids. I am locking in schools all the way down to the Creighton on the 8 seed line.
That takes cares of 22 at larges leaving only 15 open and 33 schools competing for them
IN
(23) ILLINOIS 17-11: The Illini seemingly a lock for months and even at one point on the 4/5 line have struggled mightily the last 6 weeks dropping 7 of their last 11 and adding just 1 Q1 win during that time. That 43 point loss to Duke at MSG was ugly and it came on the heels of a 21 point loss to Wisconsin which came on the heels of a 14 point home loss to Michigan State. Illinois can do this the easy way or the hard way. Very simple. Beat Iowa and they are locked in and will finish no worse than 18-13. Record aside the metrics are pretty impressive here. Beyond the strong overall NET at 23, they are 6-10 in Q1 with wins over Wisconsin, at Oregon, UCLA and Missouri/Arkansas OOC plus an additional win over suddenly in the field Indiana. That gives them a strong 6 wins vs teams projected in plus an additonal win over first out Ohio State. 5-1 in Q2 makes for a stong 11-11 in Q1/2. That home loss to USC could move to Q3 soon. The SOS is awesome at 6 overall and 20 non conference. The SOR/WAB at 38/33 are very favorable. The Illini have done more than enough on paper to make the field. The fly in the ointment is what happens if they lose to Iowa and then lose at Michigan and lose to Purdue. They would then sit at 17-14 and a poor 11-14 in Q1/2/3 games. Would the sheer strength of their wins and weakness at the cut line of the bubble overcome a potential 17-15 or 18-15 mark. Michigan at 17-14 made the tourney a few years back with similar strong schedule strength. Would not to put themselves in a spot where they fall into the last 4 in and then put themselves at the mercy of potential bid stealers.
(37) CONNECTICUT 18-9: While its very unlikely the Huskies are close to being worried about making the field, they will still have to take care of business to get a lock from me. 5-5 in Quad 1 highlighted by wins over Gonzaga/Baylor/Texas in non conference play and 2 key road wins at Marquette and Creighton. Quad 2 shows wins over bubbles Xavier and Nova. The Quad 3 loss vs Seton Hall is pretty reprehensible but will not matter unless the Huskies lose to the Pirates in the season finales. With 4 games left, one in each quad, UConn is one win away from locking in even with their WAB a wobbly 42. Currently slated on the 8/9 line, that could be a nightmare for one of one seeds.
(33) UTAH STATE 23-4: Aggies look in very good shape right now following a Q2 home win over San Diego State completing a sweep of the Aztecs. 3-1 in Q1 a bit thin but that includes a key win over WCC AQ St Mary's. A fine 7-3 in Q2 puts theirQ1/2 at a strong 10-4. Besides the SDSt win there are wins over Boise/Col State and also decent mid major North Texas and a loss to Big West AQ San Diego. Yes just 3 wins vs the field is light and they did go 0-2 vs league leading New Mexico. Still no bad losses and a guady 23-4 mark. The SOR/WAB at 29/28 indicate all systems are a go. Probably can feel safe just by beating Air Force in the finale but would help their seeding if they can win one or both of tricky road trip to Boise and Col State before that.
(29) BYU 19-8: Cougars have had a very productive 2 weeks picking up 3 Quad 1 victories to soar into the field well above the bubble fray. Now 4-7 in Q1 with wins over Baylor, Kansas at WVU and their biggest on Saturday a high level Q1 road win at Arizona. BYU has done alot to overcome the Q1 road losses to Big 12 bubblers like Cincy, Utah, TCU. In Quad 2 they are 4-1 with wins over Cincy and UCF. No bad losses and 13-8 in Q1/2/3. Very very solid profile right now. The SOS OOC just 299 and best win there is only NC State but thats really the only negative. SOR/WAB at 32/35 scream yes. A tricky last 4 will determine seeding where 1 win locks them in...at ASU/WVU/at ISU/Utah.
(48) WEST VIRGINIA: 16-11: Some really good stuff here. 4 high level Q1 wins: Iowa State, Arizona, Gonzaga and Kansas. Additionally a sweep over Cincy completes the 5-9 Q1 mark and 8-11 Q1/2. 3-0 in Q3 evens things out at 11-11 and note no real bad losses.. However with 3 losses in their last 4 are starting to move toward that murky territory where they want to be 18-13 and not 17-14 when the regular season ends. That will mean a 2-2 finish. Tricky end with home games with TCU and UCF sandwiched around trips to the Utah schools. The SOR/WAB at 40/37 is good enough for now but WVU would do themselves well to finish strong and not find out what could go wrong.
(54) NEBRASKA 17-10: The Huskers loss at Penn State was just a Q2 but it was a bad loss in the sense Nebby had their clocks cleaned vs a team that had lost 11 of 12. Licking their wounds they come back home for 3 of 4. Nebby still has a fairly strong profile. 5-8 in Q1 with road wins at Oregon/Creighton. Additional Q1 home wins over UCLA/Illinois and in Q2 the wins over bubblicious Indiana and Ohio State. 4-2 in Q2 and note the Rutgers loss has moved out of Q3 for now. 11-10 vs Q1/2/3 keeps them above the rest of the real bubble fray. he SOR/WAB at 42/40 could indicate some troubles if the Huskers do not get at least a split of their last 4. Very doable stretch with Michigan tonight followed by Minnesota, at Ohio State and finishing with Iowa.
(10) GONZAGA 21-8: Zags are scandalous with an overall NET of 10 but simply without the resume to back it up. Just 2-6 in Quad 1 games. Those wins are over projected 10 seeds Baylor and San Diego State in non conference play. They were swept by the Gaels of St Marys. 4-2 in Q2 does show a win over last 2 in Indiana. Losses in league play to Oregon State and Santa Clara are unsual for the Zags. 15 of their 21 wins are comiing from Q3/4. Even the SOR/WAB raise the alarm at 51/48. The Zags are no sure thing especially since their last 2 are a 2 tricky Q1 road games at Santa Clara who they lost to at home and at San Francisco. What if they lose both...that would drop them to just 2-8 in Q1 and 6-10 in Q2. That scenario likely bounces them from the field.
a
(51) OKLAHOMA 17-10: Sooners stopped the bleeding of 5 losses in a row and improved on that hideous 3-10 conference mark by picking up a much needed Q1 home win over Mississippi State. That win goes a long way to stabilizing their profile which has some really nice stuff on it. Now 5-8 in Q1 with 4 high level wins over Arizona, Michigan, Louisville OOC that is about as fine as you will find from any school anywhere. Throw in the additional win at Arkansas, the Miss State win and the previous home win over Vandy, the Sooners now have an impressive 6 wins vs the field. 10-10 in Q1/2/3. SOR/WAB of 39/34 is very willing. There is one bad loss to LSU. Conference records do not matter. OU has major wins here. Its likely they will need to just one in the last 4 to secure a spot. Certainly a tough stretch though.. KY/at Ole Miss/Mizzou/at Texas.
(30) BAYLOR 15-11: The Bears find themselves sinking to just 4 games above 500 needing to maybe go 2-2 the rest of the way to feel safe. Bears are 5-9 in Q1 but only one high level win vs St Johns. Additional quality wins over Kansas, bubble Arkansas and in Q2 WVU give them 4 wins vs the field. 3-2 in Q2 puts them at 8-11 but they still are sub 500 at 10-11 in Q1/2/3 so they really need to go 2-2 or better. SOS is 4/12 so that is an asset and SOR/WAB looks good for now at 37/36. Its a tricky finish with a trip to Cincy/TCU with home games vs Ok State and a coveted one vs Houston.
(49) SAN DIEGO STATE 17-7: Aztecs for some reason do not have that good of an overall net despite some pretty solid stuff overall on the profile. For starters the non conference sos is 7 and that due to the Vegas tourney where they went 2-1 with a feather in their cap win over Houston plus Creighton and losing to Oregon. They lost to Gonzaga but have a sneaky good win over Big West AQ UC San Diego. Its MWC league play where they havent shined as bright going 0-3 vs New Mex/Utah State and a bad Q3 loss to UNLV. They did sweep fellow bubble Boise and split with Colorado State. 4-5 in Q1 and 3-1 in Q2 makes for a passable 7-6 Q1/2. New Mexico at home up next and that is the kind of win that could lock them in as long they avoid landmines in their last 3 which includes a dangerous trip to UNLV.
(43) VANDERBILT 18-9: Vandy got a big Q1 home win over Ole Miss Saturday and this is a nice little resume. Yes just 3-8 vs Q1 but those wins include 2 high level Kentucky and Tennessee to go along with Ole Miss. In Q2 they are 4-1 with a win over Texas plus a neutral site win over TCU. SOR/WAB at 34/32 is very very encouraging. What I like about their resume vs other SEC bubble is that its clean AND their record of 18-9 is avoidng the bulky loss total. Yes I am aware some of that is because of an atrocious sos of 321 non conference. That I do not like and I do not like they are just 2-6 on the road with those wins to bad teams like LSU and Va Tech. Down the stretch if they can pick up a Q1/2 road win they should be looking good. Still likely a split of their last 4 likely gets them in. Last 4 is at A&M/Mizzou/Arky/at Ga
(40) ARKANSAS 16-11: It is starting to come together for Calipari's crew. The win over Missouri Saturday was their 4 Q1 win...all of them high level. Now 4-9 with additional wins at Kentucky, Texas and neutral court over Michigan. Yes there is still work to be done as they are just 1-2 in Q2 that leave them 5-11 in Q1/2 and that sole win over Georgia is losing its cache by the day. They do get to 9-11 in Q1/2/3 and further in Q3 there is a win over ASun AQ Lipscomb but they will have to close that gap in the last 4 to remain in the field. Texas/at SC/at Vandy/MSU remain so plenty of opportunity and getting that Q1 at home vs MSU is going to be the key one. The SOR of 47/43 has them right on the edge right now.
(38) TEXAS 16-11: Longhorns are in a precarious spot. Losing at South Carolina is just a Q2 but the Cocks were 0-13 in SEC play coming into that game. Its a bad loss period. Texas currently has 4 wins vs the field. How much can they squeeze out of very good home wins over Kentucky, Missouri and Texas A&M. There is a road win at Oklahoma that completes the 4-8 Q1 mark. Yet they are just 3-3 in Q2 for a 7-11 mark in Q1/2 and only 2-0 in Q3 to put them at 9-11. Their best OOC win is just St Joes and they lost to bubble Ohio State. That non conference sos of 290 is terrible. SOR/WAB at 52/45 is quite wobbly right now. Horns going to have to get 2 wins down the stretch all against tough teams jockeying for position....at Arky/Ga/at MSU/OK.
(56) INDIANA 16-11: Nothing screams a soft and weak bubble more than the Hoosiers landing in the field after rallying to beat Purdue. Make no mistakes its a great win and it adds to another great win at Michigan State. Yet beyond that the Hoosiers have not accomplished much. Their next best win of Ohio State is now projected out of the field. Just 4-11 in Q1 and Penn State win there does not move any needles. They are 3-0 in Q2 but that just shows wins over medicority like Rutgers, USC and Providence. It does get them to 7-11 in Q1/2 and they do get to 11-11 in Q1/2/3 which is better than pretty much all of the bubble out. Yet do not discount no loss outside Q1 right now and its a big plus. The SOR/WAB is a bit cloudy at 50/47. Hoosiers who havent even clinched a Big 10 tourney spot still need to do more to remain in the field. Its a very doable schedule at PSU/at Wash/at Oreg/OSU. The last game in particular could be for all the marbles as a Big 10 bubble buster play in game.
(63) WAKE FOREST 19-8: Wake in my field is why I do not want NCAA tourney expansion. This is painful and troublesome to fill this last spot. Resume wise the Deacons are not deserving yet you almost think a 4th ACC school will be slotted as they usual are. Wake has the ever slight advantage right now over UNC and SMU. At 63 they have the worst NET of any at large. Just 2-6 in Quad 1 which includes just one win vs a projected NCAA team in Michigan. There is an additonal win over SMU. Note the loss to bubble Xavier. Q2 is better at 5-1 showing wins over UNC, Pitt, Stanford and Minny. Hardly bid worthy right. Now they are 6-1 in Q3 ( a bad loss home loss to Florida State) which puts them at 13-8 in Q1/2/3 and those kind of numbers usually get strong consideration from the ACC. The SOS of 59/50 are workable and even the SOR/WAB of 33/39 surprisingly indicate a yes. Yes its an ACC thing going on and Bubba from UNC is going to make sure at least 4 get in. In the end it may not be Wake but rest assured the ACC is going to get that 4th hell or high water and dont forget there is history of ACC tourney bid stealers.
OUT
(34) OHIO STATE 15-13: The Buckeyes have now dropped under the Mendoza line which says you have to be more than 2 games above 500 to get an at large. No its not set in stone but ignoring the wacky shortened covid year in 2021, the last 2 games above .500 school to get an at large was Georgia in 2001 at 16-14 with a sick ass schedule. Also working against them is that its historically very rare (although not impossible) to make the field with 15 losses. Its been done not in the last 5 years but within the last 10 years by Alabama. Florida and Vandy. One thing to note going forward is the impact that conference consolidation could play in the "old rules" when it comes to amount of losses and games above .500 and its likely to be put the test this season with several schools. As for the Buckeyes, they still have a strong Quad 1 mark of 5-9 with wins over Kentucky OOC, a win at Purdue, and Maryland. All 3 of them high level Q1 wins you will not find on the bubble out list. Their is an additional key neutral site win over bubble in Texas giving OSU 4 wins vs schools projected in the field. The Q2 mark isnt that great at 3-4 showing losses to bubble Indiana but more egregious losses to Minnesota and a 21 point home loss to Northwestern. Those are 2 losses if they didnt have they would be almost locks to be in the field at 17-11 but here they are. Its just 8-13 vs Q1/2, no bad losses but Q1/2/3 is just 9-13 and that is a big big red flag...historically no bueno. The SOR/WAB down to 55/52 is alarming. 3 games left...at USC, Nebraska and at Indiana in which could be a bubble play in/play out game. Win all 3 and they are dancing, win 2 of 3 and at 17-14 this will be the test of whether the committee will give a nod to the unwiedly conferences with 18 schools. Certainly will make my job harder playing a guessing game.
(45) NORTH CAROLINA 17-11: Could it be once again the Tar Heels NCAA hopes rest with knocking off bitter rival Duke in the season finale. That win would be worth about 2 wins for a resume screaming out for help. The 1-10 Quad 1 mark is brutal no doubt. Heels scheduled strong at #5 OOC but lost all but one vs UCLA. Losses to Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Michigan State, Kansas yikes...did they really need to schedule all that. To make matters worse UNC also went 0-5 in the ACC Q1 games losing all of them on the road even to lesser like Pitt and Wake. Quad 2 does seem like a bright spot at 5-0 with wins over bubble out SMU, Pitt and Dayton. 6-1 in Q3 does get that Q1/2/3 up to 12-11 but that one Q3 home loss to Stanford spoils a clean resume. SOR/WAB are borderline right at the cut at 44/46. Before Duke they will have to take down Q2 road FSU and bottom feeder Q3 at Va Tech and Q4 Miami. Get to 21-11 with that 2nd Q1 win and 8-10 in Q1/2 and 15-11 in Q1/2/3 is probably going to land them in the field.
(39) SMU 20-7: 20 wins in the ACC and a solid 39 NET does not matter much anymore. Such is the dilemma the Mustangs find themselves in the ACC where it is tough to find Q1 and Q2 opportunities. SMU at 0-5 in Q1 and that should be but may not be a non starter. They missed their last chance at one by losing at home to Clemson. SMU is now 0-5 vs the top 5 schools in the ACC somehow only getting each of those just once. With just Q2 roads vs also rans and Q3s left, there is virtually nothing SMU can do to gain a quality win. They just need to win their last 4 and get to 24-7 and 7-2 in Q2 and 12-0 iin Q3 to put them at 19-7 in Q1/2/3 and hope that the astonishing Quad 3 work is enough to give them a look. Have seen profiles like this before get in so I would not read too much in the 0-5 Q1 stuff vs the 19-7 potential in Q1/2/3 especially from the ACC with Bubba sitting on the committee and I know UNC will be one of the bubbles along with Wake they will be compared to. Does a school whose best win is Pitt deserve to be in the tournament?
(46) BOISE STATE 18-8: Broncs are coming on although its very likely that to get in they will have to bump out one of the other MVC bubbles as I just do not think the conference has the cache it had in other seasons. There is some good stuff here. Non conference wins over Clemson and St Mary's highlight the just okay 3-5 Q1 mark. 3-1 in Q2 shows the recent quality win over MWC AQ New Mexico. 6-6 is not too bad for those 2 quadrants but 2 losses is Q3 may be one too many. The neutral site loss to Wash State isnt so bad and not far from Q2 but that awful loss to BC could prove poisonous. The NET is decent at 46 but the SOR/WAB do not back it up as both are at 58. The big bounty awaits with an upper level Q2 home game looming with Utah State. A win there plus winning out the last 3 against 2 bottom feeders and a Q2 home game with Colorado State could have the Boise prospects looking brighter.
(53) XAVIER 18-10: Muskateers continue to be the little engine that could taking care of business and avoiding landmines. Winners of 4 straight there is nothing that impressive about their resume but there is something to be said for being clean. A bad 1-9 in Q1 with just a win at Marquette there plus a loss to bubble TCU. The Q2 mark is 5-1 and shows wins over UConn and Wake and they did split with Nova. Their 11-10 mark in Q1/2/3 keeps them in the discussion as a legit 5th option from the Big East. Probably would want that Gtown road loss back. Their path lies with scoring a Q2 home win over Creighton and then taking care of Q2 road Butler and Q3 Providence. Do that and at 21-10, I cannot guarantee they will float theor way into the field but they will certainly be in strong consideration just in or just out either way.
(41) GEORGIA 16-11: With each day, the Bulldogs resume continues to droop and fade. UGA has now dropped 9 of their last 11, a 6 week stretch with no Q1/2 wins. Their Q1 mark sits at a frightening 2-11 led by a home win over Kentucky and a neutral site OOC win over St Johns. Sure those are very good wins but beyond that there is just a home win over Oklahoma in Q2 vs schools projected in the field. The Q1/2 mark is an unacceptable 5-11. The best thing you can say is there are no bad losses, in fact no losses outside Quad 1. Non conference sos of 244 does not help nor the 1-7 road mark that sticks out like a sore thumb. The SOR/WAB is hanging in there at 48/44 but it is clear that Georgia is solid step or two behind the other 4 SEC bubbles projected just in the field. Their try at Auburn wasnt bad but it was still a loss and now can they pick up at least one Q1 win and 2 Q2s in their last 4...Fla, at Texas, at SC and Vandy. Short of that I see them headed to Vegas for the Crown Consolation.
(74) TCU 15-12: Horned Frogs have no margin for error after falling at Cincy over the weekend. 4-8 in Q1, 6-12 in Q1/2 and 10-12 in Q1/2/3 put them in play. Their resume is sneaky good despite their poor overall NET. 4 wins vs the field over Texas Tech, at Baylor, BYU and WVU. There is an important OOC win over bubble Xavier. Yet also a bunch of losses to distant bubbles like Santa Clara, UCF, and Colorado State. TCU will have to sweep their last 4...not impossible with 2 Q1 games one at home to Baylor and at WVU with Q3 games at Colorado and home to Kansas State. The path is there but can they take it.
(44) CINCINNATI 16-11: Bearcats are hanging around but do not see how they can overome their abominable 1-19 Quad 1 mark. There is just a home win over BYU and its their only win vs a school projected in the field. Q2 is strong at 8-2 to push their overall Q1/2 to 9-11 and that is likely why their NET is solid at 44. There are good not great wins here over bubbles Xavier and TCU and distant bubbles Dayton, UCF and Utah plus a loss to bubble Nova. No bad losses per se but its not like the non conference sos at 272 and the sor/wab at 56/59 really back up that overall NET mark. Cincy can make their mark in the last 2 weeks with a home Q1 game vs Baylor, a high end Q1 road game at Houston, a low end Q2 road game at OK State and a Q3 home game vs KSU. If if and its a big if the Cats can win 3 of 4, they will certainly be in consideration but if they really want to vault into the field, its almost mandatory to get that win at Houston too.
(62) COLORADO STATE 18-9: I suppose the Rams deserve some consideration at this point. At 12-4 in the MWC, they actually are in 3rd ahead of fellow bubbles San Diego State and Boise State. Truthfully their Q1 stuff is abhorrent at 1-5 with a low end road win at Nevada the highlight. In Quad 2, they are 5-3 with some interesting wins over San Diego State, Boise State and their best OOC win TCU. That loss to UC Riverside in Q3 is quite costly. Yet there is a path for them with a home game with Utah State and a trip to Boise, 2 Quad 1 wins there could put them very close to the cut line as long as they also take care of business vs San Jose State and at Air Force. Interested to see what happens here.
(61) SAN FRANCISCO 21-7: Tough sell trying to make a case for the Dons. The best you can say is they have not lost outside Q2. 1-5 in Q1 and 2-2 in Q2 for 3-7 does not inspire confidence with 17 of 21 wins fromQ3/4 including a whopping 12 from Quad 4. Highlighting the resume is the Quad 1 home win over projected WCC St Mary's. In Q2 there are additional quality home wins over bubbles Boise and Santa Clara (who they split with). A loss to Bradley thrown in there and Washington State thrown in there. The Dons will fiinish with a Q2 road game at Oregon State and then a home finale with NET darling Gonzaga where a win will boost their metrics signficantly. Will that really be enough? I do not think so.
(50) VILLANOVA 16-12: If only the Wildcats did not suffer that gruesome Q4 home loss to Columbia...or 2 Q3 losses to Virginia/Georgetown. That is the kind of stuff that just torpedoes any realistic hope of Nova making an at large case. There are some solid wins here...St Johns, Creighton, UConn and two over bubbles Cincy and Xavier but 2-6 in Q1 and 6-9 in Q1/2 is pretty middling and its not enough to overcome 3 bad losses. Their 2-7 road mark does not help either and blowing that huge lead at UConn was a missed opportunity. Just 1 Q2 road game left at Butler and 2 Q3s Gtown/at SHU and these games will do absolutely nothing for their profile.
(55) PITTSBURGH 16-11: Panthers loss at Notre Dame over the weekend counts as a Q2 loss but make no mistake its a bad loss for a school with a bad resume to begin with. Just not much flesh here. A woeful 1-8 in Q1 with that sole win over Ohio State a team no longer projected in the field. 3-2 in Q2 gets them to just 4-10 in Q1/2 and there is a win over WVU, their only win vs a school projected in the field and North Carolina. There is a Q3 loss at Virginia but that Q3 mark gets them to 10-11 in Q1/2/3 but truth be told, there are 3 better options from the ACC ahead of them. Pitt is in an impossible spot with just a Q2 road game vs NC State and Q1 road game at Louisville that can bolster their resume and that simply will not be enough.
(76) DAYTON 17-9: Flyers can only extract so much from the OOC wins over Marquette and fading Connecticut. Good wins but they are not THAT good given Dayton has really failed to follow up in the rest of their non conference or in league play. Losses to bubbles UNC, Cincy and 0-2 vs VCU/Geo Mason. Just 8-6 in a mediocre league with their best win being a road Q2 win at St Louis. 2-3 in Q1 and 4-8 in Q1/2 just does not cut it and there is a really bad Q3 loss to UMass. 13 of 17 wins coming from Q3/4 says alot. They have a Q2 road game at URI that will not move the needle much and close the season at VCU which will be a Q1 opportunity but this resume is a hard sell.
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(52) SANTA CLARA 19-10: The Broncs have some nice things here but the 3 Q3 losses ruin everything. 2-4 in Q1 with wins at Gonzaga and projected Southland AQ Mc Neese State. 4-3 in in Q2 to bring the mark to 6-7 Q1/2 isnt bad and show wins over bubble TCU and split with San Francisco. It is likely just one or two too mainly Q3 losses...the home loss to Stanford isnt that bad but throw in a loss to North Dakota State and worst of all Loyola Marymount and you see the problem here. Not a clean profile like Gonzaga or San Fran or Indiana or the SEC bubbles. There is another crack at Gonzaga to go so that will help I suppose but looks like they are headed to the NIT.
(65) GEORGE MASON 20-6: The Patriots lost at VCU and dropped out of first in the A10. Despite their gaudy mark in league play at 12-2 and 20-6 overall, its just tough to find anything here to make an at large case for. 0-3 in Q1 with losses to Duke, Marquette, and VCU. The Q2 mark is okay at 5-1 but are road wins at Dayton, St Bonnies, Davidson, GW, and St Louis tourney worthy. Looming large are two bad losses..one in Q3 to East Carolina but an inexcusable Q4 home loss to Central Michigan. Only Q3s and 4s left on the schedule so they just better go out and win the A10 tourney.
(73) UTAH 15-12: Utes realistic chances likely went down the crapper with their loss at UCF. 2 good wins over Kansas and BYU just are not enough. The win at bubbles TCU and home to Cincy are nice but they need much more. 3-9 in Q1 and an embarrassig 4-12 in Q2...add in the Q3 and that only gets them to 7-12. They will need a sweep of their last 4 to stay in contention which means winning at Arizona and BYU and holding serve at home vs ASU and WVU. I do not see it.
(67) UC IRVINE 22-5: Anteaters dropped a home game to Cal St Northridge last week, their 3rd Q3 loss and that effectively has ended any at large hopes. While their counterparts UC San Diego will be an attractive at large selection if it comes down to it, Irvine just lacks any beef and the 3 Q3 losses is a non starter given just 1-0 in Q1 over UC San Diego and 2-2 in Q2. 19 wins coming from Q3/4 and only one Q2 road game remains. Will be a legit contender though to win the Big West touney and nab the AQ.
(78) UCF 14-13: Have to be at least a game over 500 to be on my bubble consideration list and the Knights barely qualify here after a low end Q2 home win over Utah. Its a longshot at best but their path rests through 2 Q1 road games at TCU/WVU and 2 Q3 home games vs Kan State and Ok State, if they can get all 4 I suppose they will receive some consideration. There are some good wins here at Texas Tech and a occ home win over Texas A&M. However they are just 3-9 in Q1 and a hideous 5-13 in Q1/2 with a win over bubble TCU thrown in there. 9-13 in Q1/2/3. No margin of error but even then likely not enough.
