BACATOLOGY: 2/27 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS... 3/1 Update***Rutgers projected 8 seed***
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Wow down 8...wyoming is 7-20. Its a horrific loss. In a normal year it would knock them out. This year the MW can do no wrong gaming the NET
Nevada has to move onto the last 4 in with that loss right? OK Sttate prolly on the wrong side now for sure
Nevada probably 5th team in but ill go over it in the morning when new Net comes out
Yeah seen that too but never bought into it
RU is the 2nd 9th seed on the Matrix tonight
Explain how ISU is a 5. They in a free fall and may be 8-10 in conf and playing in play in game. weird how bias helps some teams not others.
WVU rallies and completes the season sweep over the spiraling Cyclones who are down to 17-12. Id love to see them spiral to 17-14. Baylor up next
Prolly drop a seed line to 6 but we will see
WVU now 17-13 may eek above last 4 but may stay there. It will be close. Beat Kansas State and they are stone cold lock
Prolly drop a seed line to 6 but we will see
WVU now 17-13 may eek above last 4 but may stay there. It will be close. Beat Kansas State and they are stone cold lock
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At least one of the Big 12 bubble teams lost tonight. Would've been nice to get two.
That Nevada loss is going to crush their NET too that was 30 today. That's good for us, we should pass them.
That Nevada loss is going to crush their NET too that was 30 today. That's good for us, we should pass them.
They have a ridiculous amount of great Q1 wins. 6..alot of high end: Kansas, Baylor, Texas. Yet now at end of day just 6 wins vs schools in field
8-10 in Q1
Jeez, I know better than to latch onto a single factor of a team's resume, but a 6-11 record in conference for West Virginia is a tremendous wart.
I'm still trying to figure out where in the USA Des Moines is? LOL. Is it in France?
Best of Luck,
Groz
The confrence toutnmwnts are gojng to sort out the last 4-6 teams in and out ….going to need the extra data to sort it out
Just a quick hit by the eye ball test …and who seems like they call ball a little better out of the group but I think
In
Michgan
North Carolina
West Virginia
USC
Out
Oklahoma state
Wisconsin
Penn state
Clemson
Wild card
Arizona state
Just a quick hit by the eye ball test …and who seems like they call ball a little better out of the group but I think
In
Michgan
North Carolina
West Virginia
USC
Out
Oklahoma state
Wisconsin
Penn state
Clemson
Wild card
Arizona state
So explain. They are a lock at 18-14 yet we aren’t. Why? Because we would have lost a few games to high q3 teams? Seems silly. When comparing the two.
They have better wins. Any loss they have in next 2 are Q1. Rutgers has the potential to lose a borderline Q3/4 game. Big difference and yes we have 3 Q3s already
Ru has wins at a one seed and border 3/4 seed
Iowa State has wins over a 1, 2 wins over 2s and a win over a 3
Des Moines is a nice easy 14 hour drive, while Birmingham is even easier at 12 hours. Probably have to fly to get to Sacramento, lol.
Is there a bracket with the sites already signed to seeds? I didn't think that was decided yet.
Big 12 is reaping the benefits of such a dominant OOC record with 7 teams in the top 30. Average teams in conference are still rated high.
6 Kansas(12-4) Q1 15-5, 3-0, 18-5 (6-1)
17 Kansas St(10-6) Q1 9-6, 3-1, 12-7 (2-1)
10 Texas (11-5) Q1 10-7, 3-0, 13-7 (2-2)
12 Baylor(11-6) Q1 10-8, now 11-8, 4-0, 15-8 (4-2)
22 TCU(8-8) Q1 6-9, 5-0, 11-9 (3-1)
23 Iowa St(8-9) Q1 8-9, now 8-10, 2-2, 10-12 (2-3)
26 WVU(6-11) Q1 4-12, now 5-12, 5-1, 10-13 (4-2)
46 Okla St(7-10) Q1 5-10, mow 5-11, 3-2, 8-13 (1-3)
54 Texas Tech(5-11) Q1 5-11, 0-2, 5-13 (0-2)
65 Oklahoma(4-12) Q1 5-11, 3-4, 8-15 (4-3)
17 out of 20 are Q1 85% of the games, 3 out of 20 combinations are considered Q2s, home vs OSU, TT, and vs OU. It overinflates the wins and losses when it comes to seeding. You can see the teams that actually have good wins outside the conference.
6 Kansas(12-4) Q1 15-5, 3-0, 18-5 (6-1)
17 Kansas St(10-6) Q1 9-6, 3-1, 12-7 (2-1)
10 Texas (11-5) Q1 10-7, 3-0, 13-7 (2-2)
12 Baylor(11-6) Q1 10-8, now 11-8, 4-0, 15-8 (4-2)
22 TCU(8-8) Q1 6-9, 5-0, 11-9 (3-1)
23 Iowa St(8-9) Q1 8-9, now 8-10, 2-2, 10-12 (2-3)
26 WVU(6-11) Q1 4-12, now 5-12, 5-1, 10-13 (4-2)
46 Okla St(7-10) Q1 5-10, mow 5-11, 3-2, 8-13 (1-3)
54 Texas Tech(5-11) Q1 5-11, 0-2, 5-13 (0-2)
65 Oklahoma(4-12) Q1 5-11, 3-4, 8-15 (4-3)
17 out of 20 are Q1 85% of the games, 3 out of 20 combinations are considered Q2s, home vs OSU, TT, and vs OU. It overinflates the wins and losses when it comes to seeding. You can see the teams that actually have good wins outside the conference.
No but the probable 1 seeds will be at the following sites (closest to each school):
Kansas: Des Moines
UCLA: Sacramento
Houston: Birmingham
Alabama: Birmingham
Purdue: Columbus
As an 8 or 9 seed, we'll be in the same 4-team pod as a 1 seed (and therefore at the same first-weekend site as them).
Columbus won't happen because they won't want to have a potential 2nd round Purdue-Rutgers rematch.
WVU would be close to lock at 18-14 because it would mean they beat KState in their season finale and there are no bad losses to pick up in their conference tourney.
If they lose the K-State game I think they might need 2 more in their tourney. 19 wins if 15 losses… BAC?
I spent some work related time in Des Moines but honestly don't remember anything notable about the city.
A Purdue-RU matchup unlikely but theoretically possible by the rules since they played only once during the season per ncaa website. Happened a few years ago with Michigan St/Minnesota in 2nd round
Tough call...18-15 might be enough. They possibly could get Iowa State in the opening game in in the big 12 tourney
WVU net is 23. Its likely to stay in the top 30 unless they lost the next 2 by some unlikely blowouts. More convinced that 18-15 get them in
In a scenario of WVU vs Utah State who should you take. WVU is 5 -12 in Q1 and 10-13 in Q1/2. Utah State is is 0-4 in Q1 and 6-5 in Q1/2
In a scenario of WVU vs Utah State who should you take. WVU is 5 -12 in Q1 and 10-13 in Q1/2. Utah State is is 0-4 in Q1 and 6-5 in Q1/2
West Virginia fairly easily. Utah State's profile is so thin. No Q1 wins. Best road win is Colorado State.
I believe there's a typo or careless error. In the Pittsburgh summary, BAC wrote "Then you get to the Q1 loss to Florida State..."
Bracket Matrix (updated before last night's games)
LAST 8 IN: Pittsburgh, Boise State, Memphis, USC, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin
FIRST 6 OUT: Arizona State, North Carolina, Utah State, Michigan, Clemson, Penn State
In light of last night's results (and a handful of straggler brackets not accounting for the weekend games yet) I think Nevada slides down to Last 8 In, West Virginia rises above Memphis, Arizona State enters the field, Oklahoma State drops out, and Michigan rises to the second team out.
At the moment my First 5 Out would be Oklahoma State, Michigan, North Carolina, Utah State, Clemson. Not sure anyone else is all that close unless you want to throw Charleston in.
LAST 8 IN: Pittsburgh, Boise State, Memphis, USC, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin
FIRST 6 OUT: Arizona State, North Carolina, Utah State, Michigan, Clemson, Penn State
In light of last night's results (and a handful of straggler brackets not accounting for the weekend games yet) I think Nevada slides down to Last 8 In, West Virginia rises above Memphis, Arizona State enters the field, Oklahoma State drops out, and Michigan rises to the second team out.
At the moment my First 5 Out would be Oklahoma State, Michigan, North Carolina, Utah State, Clemson. Not sure anyone else is all that close unless you want to throw Charleston in.
Chooseday Bubble Viewing Guide... It's a light day here because of how few teams are on the bubble. There are some pretty good games otherwise (Iowa at Indiana, Arkansas at Tennessee)
(7:00) Clemson (30%) at Virginia - Tigers need a win, while the Hoos badly need to right their ship. Clemson is almost certainly cooked with a loss here. Just not enough good stuff to cancel out the bad losses.
(9:00) San Diego State at Boise State (55%) - The Broncos would probably not be here if they'd beaten San Jose State, but now they've suddenly got two loseable games to end the year (home against SDSU, at Utah State) and could quickly find themselves in Dayton if not worse.
(9:00) Texas Tech (17%) at Kansas - Wanna make the tournament after starting 0-8 in the Big 12? Go beat Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse, which would be the best or second best win of any team all year (Temple winning at Houston might be the best)
(9:00) South Carolina at Mississippi State (92%) - Yeah, don't lose this one.
(10:30) Fresno State at New Mexico (86%) - New Mexico is probably not even a bubble team anymore but whatever.
Bonus: The Horizon League tournament gets underway today with Detroit hosting Purdue Fort Wayne. Antoine Davis on Detroit is 63 points shy of the career scoring record held by Pete Maravich. The Titans are 13-18 and will not be selected for any kind of postseason tournament, so if he's going to break the mark they need to win tonight to advance in the Horizon bracket. Since February 1, Davis has scored at least 27 points in every game, topping 40 twice.
Other conference tournaments: The Atlantic Sun continues with #1 seed (and #42 at KenPom) Liberty hosting Bellarmine. And the Sun Belt and Patriot League tournaments also get started but it's the bottom four teams in action for both.
(7:00) Clemson (30%) at Virginia - Tigers need a win, while the Hoos badly need to right their ship. Clemson is almost certainly cooked with a loss here. Just not enough good stuff to cancel out the bad losses.
(9:00) San Diego State at Boise State (55%) - The Broncos would probably not be here if they'd beaten San Jose State, but now they've suddenly got two loseable games to end the year (home against SDSU, at Utah State) and could quickly find themselves in Dayton if not worse.
(9:00) Texas Tech (17%) at Kansas - Wanna make the tournament after starting 0-8 in the Big 12? Go beat Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse, which would be the best or second best win of any team all year (Temple winning at Houston might be the best)
(9:00) South Carolina at Mississippi State (92%) - Yeah, don't lose this one.
(10:30) Fresno State at New Mexico (86%) - New Mexico is probably not even a bubble team anymore but whatever.
Bonus: The Horizon League tournament gets underway today with Detroit hosting Purdue Fort Wayne. Antoine Davis on Detroit is 63 points shy of the career scoring record held by Pete Maravich. The Titans are 13-18 and will not be selected for any kind of postseason tournament, so if he's going to break the mark they need to win tonight to advance in the Horizon bracket. Since February 1, Davis has scored at least 27 points in every game, topping 40 twice.
Other conference tournaments: The Atlantic Sun continues with #1 seed (and #42 at KenPom) Liberty hosting Bellarmine. And the Sun Belt and Patriot League tournaments also get started but it's the bottom four teams in action for both.
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Morning update
LAST 4 BYES: MEMPHIS, NEVADA, WEST VIRGINIA, AUBURN
LAST 4 IN: USC, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN, BOISE STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA STATE, UTAH STATE, PENN STATE
NEXT 4 OUT: CLEMSON, CHARLESTON, NEW MEXICO, OKLAHOMA STATE
LAST 4 BYES: MEMPHIS, NEVADA, WEST VIRGINIA, AUBURN
LAST 4 IN: USC, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN, BOISE STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA STATE, UTAH STATE, PENN STATE
NEXT 4 OUT: CLEMSON, CHARLESTON, NEW MEXICO, OKLAHOMA STATE
Lunardi's bracket this morning also has us as a 9 seed in Des Moines (vs Mizzou).
I wonder if ESPN would want to see Detroit in the CBI so they can televise the record breaking basket.
oh of all opponents I would go with them
Missouri is tough to seed. I have them 6. They are anywhere from 6 to 10 I think in the matrix. Their wins and having no bad losses are great, somehow their metrics holding back their NET. Tough to know if the committee will value their wins or ding them in seeding for their net
thats where the overall net is wacky..you have wvu at 23 and there is no way they get seeded better than 10 or so.
I know it’s only one game but the way they absolutely dismantled Illinois in a big rivalry game makes me leery of playing them.
