BACATOLOGY: 2/27 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS... 3/1 Update***Rutgers projected 8 seed***

[Morrischiano]

Once we fell below 6 seed projections, I’ve kinda lost interest in the projections because now we’re looking at playing 1 or 2 seeds if we manage to win a first round game.
We’d essentially need to win the BiG tournament to get back there.

All I care about at this point is for a beat down v Minnesota.

 

[bac2therac]

Once we fell below 6 seed projections, I’ve kinda lost interest in the projections because now we’re looking at playing 1 or 2 seeds if we manage to win a first round game.
We’d essentially need to win the BiG tournament to get back there.

All I care about at this point is for a beat down v Minnesota.

yes we would have to have an extraordinary Big 10 tourney to get to 6 or even 5 should we win it.

we could still back down to an 11 so that would have us vs 6/3

 

[Morrischiano]

Also, I’m very happy that we knocked PSU out of the tournament .

 

[bac2therac]

I know it’s only one game but the way they absolutely dismantled Illinois in a big rivalry game makes me leery of playing them.

yeah but they really have not translated that early season stuff to the SEC and a couple of times threw up complete no shows

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I know it doesnt work this way, but to me it should be brutally simple....

RU vs. Iowa

Each team is 18-11
Iowa has the tougher schedule
End of story

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Also, I’m very happy that we knocked PSU out of the tournament .

They aren't in the morgue

 

[kcg88]

Morning update

LAST 4 BYES: MEMPHIS, NEVADA, WEST VIRGINIA, AUBURN
LAST 4 IN: USC, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN, BOISE STATE

FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA STATE, UTAH STATE, PENN STATE
NEXT 4 OUT: CLEMSON, CHARLESTON, NEW MEXICO, OKLAHOMA STATE

Why so far apart on Michigan and Oklahoma State?

Michigan: 3-10 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 8-1 Q3/Q4 (Q4 loss)
Oklahoma State: 5-11 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 8-1 Q3/Q4 (Q3 loss)

Best wins for Michigan: at Northwestern, vs. Northwestern, at Rutgers, neutral vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Michigan State
Best wins for Okie State: at Iowa State, vs. Iowa State, vs. West Virginia, vs. TCU

Oklahoma State has one more loss but the CMU loss should honestly count double.

 

[bac2therac]

the record is a huge thing for me

16-14 vs 17-12

Michigan has 6 wins EDIT make that a whopping 7 vs teams in the field plus at least has one non conference win of note...you are forgetting their 35 point win over Maryland
Okie State has 4 wins vs the field

13-11 vs 11-14 in first 3 Quads

quite frankly Michigan wins are trending better at this point given what we are seeing with Iowa State.

In the end its not that huge a disparity but the win/loss is a stickler for me

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

Have to agree. At some point wins matter.

 

[G- RUnit]

At least one of the Big 12 bubble teams lost tonight. Would've been nice to get two.

That Nevada loss is going to crush their NET too that was 30 today. That's good for us, we should pass

I know it doesnt work this way, but to me it should be brutally simple....

RU vs. Iowa

Each team is 18-11
Iowa has the tougher schedule
End of story

Kenpom has identical SOS and RU far better NET. Strength of schedule is not the tie breaker at all. In that scenario RU gets the nod.

Best case for Iowa is that they beat us twice.

 

[G- RUnit]

They aren't in the morgue

One foot in the grave.

 

[bac2therac]

Have to agree. At some point wins matter.

there is bias with Oklahoma State and Michigan. This is exactly why I hate brackets coming out in January where Okie State comfortably moves back in and then is slow to drop when lose 5 in a row. Michigan comes from nowhere annexing a shitload of wins including an upper tier Q1 win at Rutgers and yet does not get the credit they should get because they were 500 a couple of weeks ago and because the whole world fell in love with the preseason narrative that the Big 12 deserves all its teams in

Iowa State is REELING and are being propped up by a great start to the year both ooc and in league, its not the same team

 

[bac2therac]

Iowa beat RU 2x and has 9 wins vs the field, its pretty hard to diss them...almost every school has a bad loss somewhere and if you only have one its almost always overlooked.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Kenpom has identical SOS and RU far better NET. Strength of schedule is not the tie breaker at all. In that scenario RU gets the nod.

Best case for Iowa is that they beat us twice.

I see kenpom has RU at 49TH and Iowa at 22nd

 

[G- RUnit]

yes we would have to have an extraordinary Big 10 tourney to get to 6 or even 5 should we win it.

we could still back down to an 11 so that would have us vs 6/3

Weirdly I wonder if we are in a great spot. If we go on a winning streak we get to a 6 or 7 seed?
If we stink the bed, we drop to a 10, 11 or even 12?
Would they send us to the play in games two years in a row?
I know it’s awesome to make the tourney but just hate and want to avoid the dreaded 8-9 game.
God that OSU game has really hurt us.

 

[kcg88]

there is bias with Oklahoma State and Michigan. This is exactly why I hate brackets coming out in January where Okie State comfortably moves back in and then is slow to drop when lose 5 in a row. Michigan comes from nowhere annexing a shitload of wins including an upper tier Q1 win at Rutgers and yet does not get the credit they should get because they were 500 a couple of weeks ago and because the whole world fell in love with the preseason narrative that the Big 12 deserves all its teams in

Iowa State is REELING and are being propped up by a great start to the year both ooc and in league, its not the same team

I do agree with this larger point. Iowa State should not be on the 6 line still.

 

[G- RUnit]

I see kenpom has RU at 49TH and Iowa at 22nd

You are correct. Read it wrong. Still the NET though.

 

[G- RUnit]

Iowa beat RU 2x and has 9 wins vs the field, its pretty hard to diss them...almost every school has a bad loss somewhere and if you only have one its almost always.

Not dissing them at all. When they are hot they are as good as anybody and as we saw last weekend, they can be Jekyll and Hyde in the same game. Still the NET for what it’s worth….

 

[kcg88]

The Mock Selection committee made up of some quality bracketologists will have their first live stream on Thursday night. I believe they'll be doing a full field selection. Always good for great discussion. Unfortunately at the exact same time as the Minnesota game, but maybe catch it once it's archived.

 

[bac2therac]

I do agree with this larger point. Iowa State should not be on the 6 line still.

unfortunately since I think they were a 3 on the ncaa reveal, they value what they did and that reveal was less than 2 weeks ago. I would put them at 6 now but feel another loss should but wont put them in 8 territory...although remember what happened to them last season being put as a 11.

 

[bac2therac]

The Mock Selection committee made up of some quality bracketologists will have their first live stream on Thursday night. I believe they'll be doing a full field selection. Always good for great discussion. Unfortunately at the exact same time as the Minnesota game, but maybe catch it once it's archived.

View embedded media

yep they do a great job, followed them last season..and its always interesting to watch how each bracketologists approaches things just slightly different. In general I find myself more aligned with Bracketville Dave than any other guy. Some others love the metrics alot...

this guy isnt part of that committee but that guy Haslemetrics on the matrix had us out last week...lmfao because of his computer based system.

 

[bac2therac]

Weirdly I wonder if we are in a great spot. If we go on a winning streak we get to a 6 or 7 seed?
If we stink the bed, we drop to a 10, 11 or even 12?
Would they send us to the play in games two years in a row?
I know it’s awesome to make the tourney but just hate and want to avoid the dreaded 8-9 game.
God that OSU game has really hurt us.

I think as long as we beat Minnesota and dont lose by 20 plus in either of the last 2 games we should avoid Dayton

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You are correct. Read it wrong. Still the NET though.

Columbia 40
Sacred heart 38
Rider 30
CC St 34
Bucknell 35
Coppin 33

That is +210 in 6 games or 35 per game

IF we win those 6 games by 20 I'll bet our NET is on par with Iowa

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Last year in our 6 weak games

+3
+13
+14
-2
16
31
+75 or 12.5 per game

That is essentially your net difference from last year

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

To me.....it was brutally obvious watching the OOC games that Pike was totally playing to the NET. I think there was a spread deep in his mind that he wanted to hit. We kept full court pressure up and our starters in way more than necessary if you are trying to just win games

And I don’t blame him

 

[Mr Magoo]

To me.....it was brutally obvious watching the OOC games that Pike was totally playing to the NET. I think there was a spread deep in his mind that he wanted to hit. We kept full court pressure up and our starters in way more than necessary if you are trying to just win games

No question, and it’s yet another reason why I hate the NET and our cupcake OOC schedule.

 

[Skull83]

To me.....it was brutally obvious watching the OOC games that Pike was totally playing to the NET. I think there was a spread deep in his mind that he wanted to hit. We kept full court pressure up and our starters in way more than necessary if you are trying to just win games

And I don’t blame him

Seems like a prudent strategy given the way the system works.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

There seems to be a major MWC bias too. The ACC sucks but I’m just not seeing what makes an 8 loss Nevada a tournament team over an 8 loss Clemson? Nevada has 3 home wins over an overrated SDS team, Boise and Utah State. Wins @ Pitt, @ NC State, Duke, NC State, and Penn State is way better on a whole.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

No question, and it’s yet another reason why I hate the NET and our cupcake OOC schedule.

I am agnostic regarding the schedule and love the NET provided it is only used as a tool for evaluating SOS.

What if we had Michigan's schedule....
11-16 Pitt (N)
11-17 ASU (N)
11-20 Ohio
11-29 VA
12-4 Kent (N)
12-21 UNC (N)

Given how we started (because of injuries) we could easily be sitting at 16-13 with that OOC schedule. Right now we are 18-11 and pretty firmly in the tournament. I am going to say for RU 2022-23 our schedule worked out fine.

 

[kcg88]

yep they do a great job, followed them last season..and its always interesting to watch how each bracketologists approaches things just slightly different. In general I find myself more aligned with Bracketville Dave than any other guy. Some others love the metrics alot...

this guy isnt part of that committee but that guy Haslemetrics on the matrix had us out last week...lmfao because of his computer based system.

There are a handful of power rating websites that submit their ratings as a bracket. I don't understand why the Bracket Matrix guy includes it. If you're not purporting to measure a team's resume (and are instead measuring a team's overall quality) why are you even a part of it?

One thing I want to do if I have time is to identify these and remove them, and then weight the seedings by date so that more recent ones carry more weight and older ones are discounted.

 

[UofMbasketball]

Why so far apart on Michigan and Oklahoma State?

Michigan: 3-10 Q1, 6-1 Q2, 8-1 Q3/Q4 (Q4 loss)
Oklahoma State: 5-11 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 8-1 Q3/Q4 (Q3 loss)

Best wins for Michigan: at Northwestern, vs. Northwestern, at Rutgers, neutral vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Michigan State
Best wins for Okie State: at Iowa State, vs. Iowa State, vs. West Virginia, vs. TCU

Oklahoma State has one more loss but the CMU loss should honestly count double.

For what it's worth Michigan has 2 games (home vs MSU (NET 32) and Neutral vs Pitt (Net 52) that are each 2 spots away from going to Q1

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I am agnostic regarding the schedule and love the NET provided it is only used as a tool for evaluating SOS.

What if we had Michigan's schedule....
11-16 Pitt (N)
11-17 ASU (N)
11-20 Ohio
11-29 VA
12-4 Kent (N)
12-21 UNC (N)

Given how we started (because of injuries) we could easily be sitting at 16-13 with that OOC schedule. Right now we are 18-11 and pretty firmly in the tournament. I am going to say for RU 2022-23 our schedule worked out fine.

It’s a horrible tool this year for evaluating MWC teams strength of schedules… Not all Q3 games are created equal. SDSU’s schedule is loaded up on home games against UMass Lowell types.

 

[bac2therac]

There seems to be a major MWC bias too. The ACC sucks but I’m just not seeing what makes an 8 loss Nevada a tournament team over an 8 loss Clemson? Nevada has 3 home wins over an overrated SDS team, Boise and Utah State. Wins @ Pitt, @ NC State, Duke, NC State, and Penn State is way better on a whole.

Its by getting alot of Q3 wins...see Utah St and San Diego St

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

What bothers me about how selection is done….

How a team does (W or L only) against 100-200 ranked teams shows me something about how good a team is. In the current system those games really have little impact. It is all about the good teams you beat.

As I say 1000 times winning at Purdue and losing N against Temple should be no different than beating Temple and losing at Purdue.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Its by getting alot of Q3 wins...see Utah St and San Diego St

Yes, that’s why the NETs look that way, but the question is how much will the committee value the straight up computer numbers. History says performance against the field is usually the more important metric when deciding between teams with similar loss counts. For both seeding and selection.

 

[bac2therac]

What bothers me about how selection is done….

How a team does (W or L only) against 100-200 ranked teams shows me something about how good a team is. In the current system those games really have little impact. It is all about the good teams you beat.

As I say 1000 times winning at Purdue and losing N against Temple should be no different than beating Temple and losing at Purdue.

Good wins always trump bad losses

Winning at Virginia Tech or Florida is Q1 and thats just bullcrap

Pac 12 and MW padding resumes with Q2 road wins against drek

 

[bac2therac]

Yes, that’s why the NETs look that way, but the question is how much will the committee value the straight up computer numbers. History says performance against the field is usually the more important metric when deciding between teams with similar loss counts. For both seeding and selection.

Just when you think you figured out what the committee values they throw you a curveball...see Notre Dame last year

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

What bothers me about how selection is done….

How a team does (W or L only) against 100-200 ranked teams shows me something about how good a team is. In the current system those games really have little impact. It is all about the good teams you beat.

As I say 1000 times winning at Purdue and losing N against Temple should be no different than beating Temple and losing at Purdue.

That’s not really true - overall loss count is always a huge factor that’s heavily weighted in combination with wins over teams that make the field.

If you play a ton of these games you reference at home like SDSU did and your loss count will be lower. I think your point overvalues how much harder it truly is to beat Quinnipac vs Rider vs Bucknell on your home floor as a halfway decent major conference team. The talent gap is huge.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Just when you think you figured out what the committee values they throw you a curveball...see Notre Dame last year

Last year’s Notre Dame team would still fit that mold quite a bit better than Nevada. 10 loss team with wins over 2 seed, 8 seed and @ 10 seed. 2 wins over the top half of the bracket plus a road win over a 10 seed is a lot better than what Nevada has right now. Cleaner loss profile too. Nevada can be no better than a 9 loss at large team so similar total loss count.

 

[bac2therac]

Nc state has a mountain west profile