For lesser conferences absolutely but unfair to regular season winners.
And as Brad has said, for Power Conferences, they know the seedings by Friday. Just a money grab. Pointless.
BACATOLOGY: 2/27 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS... 3/1 Update***Rutgers projected 8 seed***
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
And as Brad has said, for Power Conferences, they know the seedings by Friday. Just a money grab. Pointless.
Mississippi State survives
Seton Hall loses officially done
Wake done
Clemson 99% done
San Diego State leading at Boise
Texas Tech fighting for their lives at Kansas hanging in
Arkansas getting blown out at Tennessee
Seton Hall loses officially done
Wake done
Clemson 99% done
San Diego State leading at Boise
Texas Tech fighting for their lives at Kansas hanging in
Arkansas getting blown out at Tennessee
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Still think we need to win Thursday at Minnesota... but as you said, beating NW again could alleviate the damage there. Lose both and I think the committee says that THIS current Rutgers team is not the team that built that resume. I think that will be the case if disaster strikes and then the usual upsets occur in the *AQ* games.
The deciding factor will be HOW MANY B1G TEN teams can make a case. The reason is that while the Big Ten rep can wheel and deal in a general sense.. he/she cannot be in the room when Big Ten teams are discussed. And who does that leave in the room? Why.. all the interested parties from other conferences who will throw around the memory of how poorly the Big Ten did last year's tourney DESPITE all the hype of how good and deep they were. Eliminating any Big Ten team by highlighting the negatives will likely happen. Same could be true for other conferences. And the Big Ten has made enemies with the PAC.. so I expect some shenanigans.. conference-politics shenanigans.
The deciding factor will be HOW MANY B1G TEN teams can make a case. The reason is that while the Big Ten rep can wheel and deal in a general sense.. he/she cannot be in the room when Big Ten teams are discussed. And who does that leave in the room? Why.. all the interested parties from other conferences who will throw around the memory of how poorly the Big Ten did last year's tourney DESPITE all the hype of how good and deep they were. Eliminating any Big Ten team by highlighting the negatives will likely happen. Same could be true for other conferences. And the Big Ten has made enemies with the PAC.. so I expect some shenanigans.. conference-politics shenanigans.
thats going to be a tough way for Texas Tech to lose on that crazy scramble play if they cant comeback
A&M holds off Ole Miss
Kansas going to win. Texas Tech is likely going to need to win the Big 12 tourney... their overall Q1/2 is going to fall to 5-14. I suppose they can win vs Okie State and make the Big 12 finals and we can reevaluate.
Kansas going to win. Texas Tech is likely going to need to win the Big 12 tourney... their overall Q1/2 is going to fall to 5-14. I suppose they can win vs Okie State and make the Big 12 finals and we can reevaluate.
A few days back, I actually heard some ESPN'er suggest that EVERY BIG 12 team can get in.
they dont talk conferences...any play from prior year is disregarded. Big 10 will get 9 I think, the question is can they get 10.
You do good work on this. But we shall see. Never underestimate self-interest and backroom deal-making. The Big Ten will not use its political capital on Rutgers behalf... to help Michigan get in.. sure. OSU if there was a case.. sure.
Absolutely right. If they can shaft RU, they will take great pride in it. Don't drop last two conference games.
with that Arkansas big loss at Tennessee, here is a preview for tomorrow: Rutgers will move up to the last 8 seed
Lol. Good one ! I’m also trying to figure out what to do on off day between games in Des Moines? Maybe go cow tipping ?
nothing is set but those other locations include Orlando, Greensboro Denver,,,,the latter is almost certainly a 2 with Arizona
There will be a handful of bid stealers. Occurs every year. Its why you want to avoid that 11/12 line.
Checked on costs Philadelphia to De Moines is a little over $500 round trip All flights have one stop and total time of 6 hrs +
They have done this at home and exactly just 2 times on the road all year. Against RU at the RAC and tonite against Indiana . Otherwise play pedestrian on the road and shoot terribly. Not tonite. Indiana was playing good to great defense lately but they looked like they were in quicksand compared to Iowa. At least we made a comeback and got it to 6 when they got the airball rebound and kick out 3 and then Murray with the conversion with 1 on the shot clock preventing a 1 possession game with 2 minutes to go. Indiana had nothing , really weak and got called out by Woodson tonight.
AD Mark Coyle
Alma mater Drake University (played football)
Florida State University
Administrative career (AD unless noted)
2001-2005 Minnesota (associate AD)
2006–2011 Kentucky (deputy AD)
2011–2015 Boise State
2015–2016 Syracuse
2016–present Minnesota
But remember, he is one guy.. and won't even be in the room. How is the Big Ten rep chosen? Sometimes he/she comes from the conference and sometimes a member school.
12 people... 11 of which will decide teh fate of any Big Ten school. 5 members come from the power 5... the majority is not power 5. And when a power 5 school is discussed.. it may come down to 7 non-power-5 members dominating the 4 power-5 members. But I suspect there will be other considerations going on... like Mark Coyle may have a fondness for Kentucky when Kentucky is discussed.. etc.. even though hs is Big Ten rep. Perhaps these non-P5-members have ties to P5 conferences and schools... it is likely.
NCAA Tournament Selection Committee
The 2022-2023 Selection Committee (the year the term is up is in parenthesis):CHRIS REYNOLDS (2023) – Bradley Vice President for Intercollegiate Athletics (Chairman)
BERNADETTE MCGLADE (2023) – Atlantic 10 Commissioner
CHARLES MCCLELLAND (2024) – SWAC Commissioner (Vice-Chairman)
JAMIE POLLARD (2024) – Iowa State Athletic Director
BUBBA CUNNINGHAM (2025) – North Carolina Athletic Director
MARK COYLE (2026) – Minnesota Athletic Director
DAVE HEEKE (2026) – Arizona Athletic Director
GREG BYRNE (2026) – Alabama Athletic Director
KEITH GILL (2026) – Sun Belt Commissioner
BARRY COLLIER (2026) – Butler Athletic Director
MARTIN NEWTON (2027) – Samford Athletic Director
TOM WISTRCILL (2027) – Big Sky Commisisoner
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I suspect Iowa had quite teh shot-in-the-arm with that historic comeback. Each made three probably built confidence.. especially after losing that game would have meant the opposite.. a 3-game skid and they were nearly blown out at home. That was miracle and I expect it paid dividends at Indiana. Heck.. I think that comeback inspired a lot of teams.. maybe even Rutgers vs PSU.
Villanova(16-14) 2-8, 3-4, 5-12, Q3 7-2, 12-14
W over UConn,(17-14) 3-8, 3-4, 6-12, 7-2, 13-14
Nova seems to be locked into the 6 seed looking at the standings,
11 seed G'Town gives them a Q4, seeds 1-5 are all Q1s on a neutral court, DePaul, Butler Q3s, Seton Hall, 97 St John's Q2 today. Going 2-1 vs Q1s or Q2 only after Georgetown
(20-15) 5-9, 3-4, 8-13, 7-2, 15-15
Or 4-8, 4-4, 8-13, 7-2, 15-15
Would still be out of First Four unless the bubble gets even weaker, not stronger in conference tournaments, in the next 2 weeks.
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TT needs an autobid. Green’s universal theory that 16-16 in B12 should equal 18-14 in the BIG is simply not true. Putting all other arguments aside, he forgets B12 teams play 2 fewer conference games.
When you talk about weak OOC, TT is the one team that possibly did worse with OOC scheduling than RU and they played 2 extra cupcakes so that more than offsets a team like RU getting Minny and Nebraska.
They are just 5-12 in q1/2. Their only wins of note are Xavier and Creighton. With losses to Penn and Portland in Q3 and Q2 losses to Temple and Butler
I suppose they can get consideration but note Texas A&M with a better resume didnt make it despite their late surge in SEC tournament and Va Tech was not going to be selected if they lost in the ACC finals
Considered but 15 losses probably too much
The bubble is getting very small.
These teams are either true locks or I feel really, really good about them making it. Seed listing from Bracket Matrix... everyone on the 8 line or higher is a stone cold lock.
(9) Missouri
(9) Rutgers
(9) Florida Atlantic
(10) Pittsburgh
(11) West Virginia
(11) Boise State
I consider these teams to be autobid or bust at this point:
Oregon - They're the closest to being included below, but we saw with Texas A&M last year how hard it is to rise up from a run in the conference tournament. A hypothetical loss in the Pac-12 championship game would be their 14th, and that's a lot to overcome with only one premier win (home vs. Arizona)
New Mexico - Reluctantly included. I suppose there's an argument for them to be in the section below but again, hard to regain a foothold in the conference tournament. If some nutty stuff happens like Memphis losing to SMU, Nevada losing to UNLV, etc starts happening I'm willing to revisit their chances with a strong MWC tournament run, but for now they're here.
Texas Tech - Too many losses, nothing in the non-conference.
Clemson - Just not enough meat on the bone to overcome the flaws on the resume.
Here is the true bubble as I see it. 13 teams for 8 spots:
(9) NC State - Their season is in the books as the odd ACC team without a dance partner for the weekend. They're just 2-6 in Q1 and other teams in this area are much healthier in that department. Wisconsin is 6-6, USC is 4-4, Nevada is 4-5, Arizona State is 4-2. That's their issue. They're almost certainly safe if they win a game in the ACC tournament, but that's the same spot Wake Forest was in last year and they lost to Boston College.
(10) Nevada - This is a car that's out of gas and they're just trying to push it past the finish line. They needed to come back to beat Fresno State and then followed that up with a loss at Wyoming. They close the season out with a home against UNLV. Win that and they're fine. Lose that and it's another Q3 loss for the register and then if Utah State (currently #30) drops out of Q1 range... the resume could look noticeably worse pretty soon.
(10) Auburn - Just 2-8 in Q1 and they've got a pair of really tough ones left, at Alabama and vs. Tennessee. Granted the Vols have been dishing out Q1 wins to all who need them and they might be without their starting PG. But there's a decent chance Auburn enters the SEC tournament at 2-10 in Q1 plus a Q3 loss... really at that point the resume would not be so different from Michigan's. The Wolverines are 3-10 in Q1 with a Q4 loss. Losing to Central Michigan at home is way way worse than losing at Georgia, but Michigan's wins are better. Auburn won on a neutral vs. Northwestern, Michigan won at Northwestern. Auburn beat Arkansas at home, Michigan beat Maryland at home (call that one a wash). Michigan won at Rutgers, Auburn has no road win like that in the tank.
(10) Memphis - They're really lucky the A&M win has aged this well because there's not a whole lot else going on here. They've dodged enough bullets that a win at SMU is enough to get it done. A win over Houston would obviously lock them up but I'm thinking it's likely not necessary. Now if they take a bad loss in the AAC tournament we could revisit.
(11) USC - They're up to 4-4 in Q1 but only the UCLA win is all that impressive. The others are at Arizona State, at Utah, at Colorado. The neutral site loss to Wisconsin could end up being a big deal if those two are vying for a final spot. They probably just need to win one of their final two (Arizona, Arizona State, both at home) to punch their ticket, although if they only beat ASU they're still in the Dayton mix.
(11) Wisconsin - The team that won't go away thanks to six Q1 wins. The perfect example of a team doing it with zero style points. Pretty much all of their good work happened before the calendar flipped. Their only Q1 wins since December 12 are at Ohio State and at Penn State, neither of which is gonna pop any eyeballs. But there's also home wins over Iowa and Michigan in that span. Their issue is a mounting loss total. They could go into the Big Ten tournament at 17-13 and if they drop to 17-14 that's really the danger zone. On the other hand Purdue is struggling right now so the Badgers can make all their problems go away with a win tomorrow.
(11) Arizona State - They saved their season with the buzzer beater but the work is not done. The 4-2 Q1 record is great but the 4-6 Q2 record is not, and there's that pesky Q4 loss. Working in their favor is a neutral site win over Michigan... Wolverines are 9-11 in the first two quadrants with a Q4 loss, Sun Devils are 8-8 with a Q4 loss... Like USC they've got two big games left (at UCLA, at USC) so they could be 4-4 in Q1 in a heartbeat. Of course, win one of those and they're likely safe at 5-3 in Q1.
(11) Mississippi State - Crisis averted at home against South Carolina. Now they've got to go play at Vanderbilt to close out the season, the type of spot where you get no credit for winning but a loss is damaging. It's the difference between 9-9 and 8-10 in the first two quadrants (plus there's a Q3 loss) which could easily be the make-or-break factor.
North Carolina - Now we're into the territory where teams can't simply tread water, they need to get stuff done. A Q1 loss is not a huge issue for a team like Memphis or Auburn at this point but if UNC loses at home to Duke (which is Q1) there's just simply not enough there to justify including the Tar Heels. They'd be 1-9 in Q1 and the 1 is barely hanging in there (Virginia at #29). If UNC wins that and Mississippi State loses at Vanderbilt and Arizona State loses their two games and Nevada loses to UNLV... there's a path.
Michigan - Yet another team with a two Q1 games remaining (along with Auburn, Arizona State, and heck I'll include USC as their head to head with ASU might as well be Q1 given the stakes) as they're at Illinois and Indiana. The obvious question: is a split enough? That'd get them to 4-11 in Q1 but their neutral site win over Pitt (#53) and their home win over Michigan State (#31) are tantalizingly lose to Q1. Say those two flip, well now suddenly they're 6-11 in Q1. But wait, there's more. Maybe Virginia falls out, now they're 6-10 in Q1 (and still 4-2 in Q2)... That's not amazing but it's a whole lot more appetizing than the current 3-11 mark. And yes, I'm reducing this to quadrants for simplicity's sake, the committee will understand a Q2 neutral win over Pittsburgh is a lot more impressive than a Q2 home win over UCF. What we do know is there's no shot at an at large without at least one win in the next two.
Utah State - Grand opening, grand closing. Utah State had a Q1 win for about a day before Nevada lost and fell back to Q2. Utah State themselves are still #30 in the NET but there's zero Q1 wins plus a Q3 and a Q4 loss... and the Q3 loss is the worst possible Q3 loss (loss to #200 SMU... if they slip to #201 it's back to Q4). On the other hand if they add a win against Boise State that'll take care of the Q1 problem and there are also wins over Bradley, Oral Roberts, and a split with fellow bubbler Nevada. I think at best we're talking about them as one of the last two teams in the field.
Penn State - Gotta have the last two at Northwestern and vs Maryland, I think. If they got those they'd be 5-7 in Q1, 4-5 in Q2... man, that still doesn't feel like enough, does it? Then again we're talking about Michigan having a shot if they get to 10-12 in the first two quadrants, and the Nittany Lions don't have an awful loss like they do. If they only split they'd be 4-8 in Q1, 4-5 in Q2 and 8-13 definitely not gonna get it done.
Oklahoma State - Fairly close to life support. They play at Texas Tech in a battle of 16-14 teams... the reason Oklahoma State is on here and Texas Tech is autobid or bust is that this is a Q1 game for the Cowboys on the road and a Q2 game for Tech at home. They need a win in Lubbock and at least one more in the Big 12 tournament.
And lastly, two complete wildcards if they lose their conference tournament:
Oral Roberts
Charleston
I'm not fully discounting the committee including them as an at-large in a year where there are so few viable mid-majors. Oral Roberts is 27-4 and ran the table in the Summit League. They own a win over Liberty and their losses are to St. Mary's, Houston, Utah State, and New Mexico. Any loss in the Summit League tournament is a bad loss, but I'm not fully ruling them out.
Charleston doesn't have any wins as good as Liberty (their best is Virginia Tech) and they've lost to Hofstra and Drexel. So their case is weaker than ORU's but 4 losses is hard to ignore especially if the bubble really gets ugly.
These teams are either true locks or I feel really, really good about them making it. Seed listing from Bracket Matrix... everyone on the 8 line or higher is a stone cold lock.
(9) Missouri
(9) Rutgers
(9) Florida Atlantic
(10) Pittsburgh
(11) West Virginia
(11) Boise State
I consider these teams to be autobid or bust at this point:
Oregon - They're the closest to being included below, but we saw with Texas A&M last year how hard it is to rise up from a run in the conference tournament. A hypothetical loss in the Pac-12 championship game would be their 14th, and that's a lot to overcome with only one premier win (home vs. Arizona)
New Mexico - Reluctantly included. I suppose there's an argument for them to be in the section below but again, hard to regain a foothold in the conference tournament. If some nutty stuff happens like Memphis losing to SMU, Nevada losing to UNLV, etc starts happening I'm willing to revisit their chances with a strong MWC tournament run, but for now they're here.
Texas Tech - Too many losses, nothing in the non-conference.
Clemson - Just not enough meat on the bone to overcome the flaws on the resume.
Here is the true bubble as I see it. 13 teams for 8 spots:
(9) NC State - Their season is in the books as the odd ACC team without a dance partner for the weekend. They're just 2-6 in Q1 and other teams in this area are much healthier in that department. Wisconsin is 6-6, USC is 4-4, Nevada is 4-5, Arizona State is 4-2. That's their issue. They're almost certainly safe if they win a game in the ACC tournament, but that's the same spot Wake Forest was in last year and they lost to Boston College.
(10) Nevada - This is a car that's out of gas and they're just trying to push it past the finish line. They needed to come back to beat Fresno State and then followed that up with a loss at Wyoming. They close the season out with a home against UNLV. Win that and they're fine. Lose that and it's another Q3 loss for the register and then if Utah State (currently #30) drops out of Q1 range... the resume could look noticeably worse pretty soon.
(10) Auburn - Just 2-8 in Q1 and they've got a pair of really tough ones left, at Alabama and vs. Tennessee. Granted the Vols have been dishing out Q1 wins to all who need them and they might be without their starting PG. But there's a decent chance Auburn enters the SEC tournament at 2-10 in Q1 plus a Q3 loss... really at that point the resume would not be so different from Michigan's. The Wolverines are 3-10 in Q1 with a Q4 loss. Losing to Central Michigan at home is way way worse than losing at Georgia, but Michigan's wins are better. Auburn won on a neutral vs. Northwestern, Michigan won at Northwestern. Auburn beat Arkansas at home, Michigan beat Maryland at home (call that one a wash). Michigan won at Rutgers, Auburn has no road win like that in the tank.
(10) Memphis - They're really lucky the A&M win has aged this well because there's not a whole lot else going on here. They've dodged enough bullets that a win at SMU is enough to get it done. A win over Houston would obviously lock them up but I'm thinking it's likely not necessary. Now if they take a bad loss in the AAC tournament we could revisit.
(11) USC - They're up to 4-4 in Q1 but only the UCLA win is all that impressive. The others are at Arizona State, at Utah, at Colorado. The neutral site loss to Wisconsin could end up being a big deal if those two are vying for a final spot. They probably just need to win one of their final two (Arizona, Arizona State, both at home) to punch their ticket, although if they only beat ASU they're still in the Dayton mix.
(11) Wisconsin - The team that won't go away thanks to six Q1 wins. The perfect example of a team doing it with zero style points. Pretty much all of their good work happened before the calendar flipped. Their only Q1 wins since December 12 are at Ohio State and at Penn State, neither of which is gonna pop any eyeballs. But there's also home wins over Iowa and Michigan in that span. Their issue is a mounting loss total. They could go into the Big Ten tournament at 17-13 and if they drop to 17-14 that's really the danger zone. On the other hand Purdue is struggling right now so the Badgers can make all their problems go away with a win tomorrow.
(11) Arizona State - They saved their season with the buzzer beater but the work is not done. The 4-2 Q1 record is great but the 4-6 Q2 record is not, and there's that pesky Q4 loss. Working in their favor is a neutral site win over Michigan... Wolverines are 9-11 in the first two quadrants with a Q4 loss, Sun Devils are 8-8 with a Q4 loss... Like USC they've got two big games left (at UCLA, at USC) so they could be 4-4 in Q1 in a heartbeat. Of course, win one of those and they're likely safe at 5-3 in Q1.
(11) Mississippi State - Crisis averted at home against South Carolina. Now they've got to go play at Vanderbilt to close out the season, the type of spot where you get no credit for winning but a loss is damaging. It's the difference between 9-9 and 8-10 in the first two quadrants (plus there's a Q3 loss) which could easily be the make-or-break factor.
North Carolina - Now we're into the territory where teams can't simply tread water, they need to get stuff done. A Q1 loss is not a huge issue for a team like Memphis or Auburn at this point but if UNC loses at home to Duke (which is Q1) there's just simply not enough there to justify including the Tar Heels. They'd be 1-9 in Q1 and the 1 is barely hanging in there (Virginia at #29). If UNC wins that and Mississippi State loses at Vanderbilt and Arizona State loses their two games and Nevada loses to UNLV... there's a path.
Michigan - Yet another team with a two Q1 games remaining (along with Auburn, Arizona State, and heck I'll include USC as their head to head with ASU might as well be Q1 given the stakes) as they're at Illinois and Indiana. The obvious question: is a split enough? That'd get them to 4-11 in Q1 but their neutral site win over Pitt (#53) and their home win over Michigan State (#31) are tantalizingly lose to Q1. Say those two flip, well now suddenly they're 6-11 in Q1. But wait, there's more. Maybe Virginia falls out, now they're 6-10 in Q1 (and still 4-2 in Q2)... That's not amazing but it's a whole lot more appetizing than the current 3-11 mark. And yes, I'm reducing this to quadrants for simplicity's sake, the committee will understand a Q2 neutral win over Pittsburgh is a lot more impressive than a Q2 home win over UCF. What we do know is there's no shot at an at large without at least one win in the next two.
Utah State - Grand opening, grand closing. Utah State had a Q1 win for about a day before Nevada lost and fell back to Q2. Utah State themselves are still #30 in the NET but there's zero Q1 wins plus a Q3 and a Q4 loss... and the Q3 loss is the worst possible Q3 loss (loss to #200 SMU... if they slip to #201 it's back to Q4). On the other hand if they add a win against Boise State that'll take care of the Q1 problem and there are also wins over Bradley, Oral Roberts, and a split with fellow bubbler Nevada. I think at best we're talking about them as one of the last two teams in the field.
Penn State - Gotta have the last two at Northwestern and vs Maryland, I think. If they got those they'd be 5-7 in Q1, 4-5 in Q2... man, that still doesn't feel like enough, does it? Then again we're talking about Michigan having a shot if they get to 10-12 in the first two quadrants, and the Nittany Lions don't have an awful loss like they do. If they only split they'd be 4-8 in Q1, 4-5 in Q2 and 8-13 definitely not gonna get it done.
Oklahoma State - Fairly close to life support. They play at Texas Tech in a battle of 16-14 teams... the reason Oklahoma State is on here and Texas Tech is autobid or bust is that this is a Q1 game for the Cowboys on the road and a Q2 game for Tech at home. They need a win in Lubbock and at least one more in the Big 12 tournament.
And lastly, two complete wildcards if they lose their conference tournament:
Oral Roberts
Charleston
I'm not fully discounting the committee including them as an at-large in a year where there are so few viable mid-majors. Oral Roberts is 27-4 and ran the table in the Summit League. They own a win over Liberty and their losses are to St. Mary's, Houston, Utah State, and New Mexico. Any loss in the Summit League tournament is a bad loss, but I'm not fully ruling them out.
Charleston doesn't have any wins as good as Liberty (their best is Virginia Tech) and they've lost to Hofstra and Drexel. So their case is weaker than ORU's but 4 losses is hard to ignore especially if the bubble really gets ugly.
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Holy shit. didn't know you guys had a Basketball Jones this deep. Great work.
agree with pretty much everything. It really is a sucky bubble this year...alot of parity but its almost all between the power conference schools and its consolidating the field among those schools. Midmajors just do not have the cache.
I would throw Oregon on this list...yes its flickering but at 16-13 and 52 in NET they are 3-7 Q1, 8-11 Q1/2...wins over Arizona, USC, Nevada. If they win last two at home vs Cal/Stan and head into Pac 12 tourney at 18-13, they look to be either the 5 or 4 seed...looks like matchup with ASU and then UCLA...get those and lose in finals.....20-14 but now 5-8 in Q1 and 10-12 in Q1/2...will be under consideration but again the Texas A&M example from last year says probably not
with how bad the bubble is with the bloat around the cut line, I really do think a school like Oral Roberts and even Charleston will be a thrown a bone this year and placed in the first four as opposed to a school like Wisconsin or USC or Auburn
Aside from the obvious bubble-bursting conference tourneys, do we think the bubble also gets stronger at the very end of the year due to desperate teams overperforming?
Are we often saying “weak bubble” in mid-Feb, then by Selection Sunday we’re like “It’s actually a normal bubble”?
Are we often saying “weak bubble” in mid-Feb, then by Selection Sunday we’re like “It’s actually a normal bubble”?
3/1 updated bracket
LAST 4 BYES: NEVADA, MEMPHIS, MISSISSIPPI STATE, AUBURN
LAST 4 IN: USC, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, WISCONSIN
FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA STATE, UTAH STATE, PENN STATE
NEXT 6 OUT: CHARLESTON, NEW MEXICO, CLEMSON, OKLAHOMA STATE, OREGON, TEXAS TECH
Rutgers moves up a spot in seeding to 8.
Iowa jumps to a 6 seed.
NC State spirals to the last 4 in.
Iowa State is readjusted and now falls to a 8 seed.
Boise State is now above the last 8 in
Not much of a bubble this year.
| SOUTH REGION – Louisville | MIDWEST REGION – Kansas City | |
| Birmingham | Birmingham | |
| 1) Alabama | 1) Houston | |
| 16) Alcorn State-FDU | 16) Texas A&M Corpus Christi | |
| 8) Rutgers | 8) Illinois | |
| 9) Providence | 9) Arkansas | |
| Orlando | Orlando | |
| 5) Saint Mary's | 5) Xavier | |
| 12) VCU | 12) Southern Mississippi | |
| 4) Indiana | 4) TCU | |
| 13) Toledo | 13) Utah Valley State | |
| Greensboro | Greensboro | |
| 6) Iowa | 6) Kentucky | |
| 11) Nevada | 11) Wisconsin-North Carolina St | |
| 3) Tennessee | 3) Kansas State | |
| 14) Furman | 14) Colgate | |
| Des Moines | Denver | |
| 7) Missouri | 7) Duke | |
| 10) Boise State | 10) Mississippi State | |
| 2) Baylor | 2) Texas | |
| 15) Kennesaw State | 15) Vermont | |
| WEST REGION – Las Vegas | EAST REGION – New York | |
| Des Moines | Columbus | |
| 1) Kansas | 1) Purdue | |
| 16) UNC Asheville | 16) Howard-Morehead State | |
| 8) Texas A&M | 8) Iowa State | |
| 9) Pittsburgh | 9) Florida Atlantic | |
| Albany | Albany | |
| 5) Miami | 5) Creighton | |
| 12) Oral Roberts | 12) Bradley | |
| 4) Connecticut | 4) Virginia | |
| 13) Iona | 13) Hofstra | |
| Sacramento | Columbus | |
| 6) San Diego State | 6) Northwestern | |
| 11) USC-Michigan | 11) Memphis | |
| 3) Gonzaga | 3) Marquette | |
| 14) UC Irvine | 14) Yale | |
| Denver | Sacramento | |
| 7) Maryland | 7) Michigan State | |
| 10) West Virginia | 10) Auburn | |
| 2) Arizona | 2) UCLA | |
| 15) Eastern Washington | 15) Youngstown State |
LAST 4 BYES: NEVADA, MEMPHIS, MISSISSIPPI STATE, AUBURN
LAST 4 IN: USC, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, WISCONSIN
FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA STATE, UTAH STATE, PENN STATE
NEXT 6 OUT: CHARLESTON, NEW MEXICO, CLEMSON, OKLAHOMA STATE, OREGON, TEXAS TECH
Rutgers moves up a spot in seeding to 8.
Iowa jumps to a 6 seed.
NC State spirals to the last 4 in.
Iowa State is readjusted and now falls to a 8 seed.
Boise State is now above the last 8 in
Not much of a bubble this year.
On March 1 last year there were 18 teams listed in at least one bracket that were not included in the Bracket Matrix composite field of 68. **
This year there are 6.
It's undeniably a much smaller bubble and smaller means weaker. The thing is Michigan and UNC are obviously talented, and nobody wants to draw Penn State because if their shooting gets hot you're gonna lose. So it's strong from the standpoint that teams that end up in Dayton could actually end up doing well, but it's weak from a resume standpoint.
** (Fun-ish fact, Rutgers is the only team of those 18 that wound up getting into the field as an at large. Xavier, Wake Forest and SMU fell out while Rutgers, ACC tournament winner Virginia Tech, and A-10 tournament winner Richmond went in. VaTech was listed on 5 brackets but they lost their finale to Clemson and would not have gotten in as an at-large)
im not sure where they will come from this year. I mean Va Tech and Wake will not get in even if they reach their conference finals
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