BACATOLOGY: 2/27 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS... 3/1 Update***Rutgers projected 8 seed***

[GimmeSomeMore]

Jerry Palm had us an 11 today. Ouch

Palm is awful. But, I'd sign up for TCU, Tennessee and UC Irvine in our mini bracket!

 

[kcg88]

On March 1 last year there were 18 teams listed in at least one bracket that were not included in the Bracket Matrix composite field of 68. **

This year there are 6.

It's undeniably a much smaller bubble and smaller means weaker. The thing is Michigan and UNC are obviously talented, and nobody wants to draw Penn State because if their shooting gets hot you're gonna lose. So it's strong from the standpoint that teams that end up in Dayton could actually end up doing well, but it's weak from a resume standpoint.

** (Fun-ish fact, Rutgers is the only team of those 18 that wound up getting into the field as an at large. Xavier, Wake Forest and SMU fell out while Rutgers, ACC tournament winner Virginia Tech, and A-10 tournament winner Richmond went in. VaTech was listed on 5 brackets but they lost their finale to Clemson and would not have gotten in as an at-large)

I'm down a rabbit hole now. Here are the first 7 out (VaTech was #8) as of March 1 last year and how they did from that date forward:

BYU (46 brackets) - Beat Loyola Marymount, lost to San Francisco in the WCC tournament

VCU (37 brackets) - Beat St. Bonaventure, lost to Saint Louis, then lost to Richmond in the A-10 tournament

Rutgers (30 brackets) - Beat Indiana, beat Penn State, lost to Iowa in the B10 tournament

Florida (12 brackets) - Beat Vanderbilt, lost to Kentucky, lost in OT to Texas A&M in the SEC tournament

Oregon (10 brackets) - Lost at Washington, lost at Washington State, beat Oregon State then lot to Colorado in the P12 tournament

UAB (10 brackets) - Won the C-USA tournament, replaced North Texas as the autobid

Dayton (5 brackets) - Beat Richmond, beat Davidson, then beat UMass before losing to Richmond in the A-10 tournament. First Team Out.

Of interest, Texas A&M who many had IN by the end and who ended up as the Fourth Team Out was not listed on a single bracket as of March 1. They won at Alabama, beat Mississippi State, and then beat Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas before losing to Tennessee in the SEC title game. Still feel like they got screwed last year.

Oklahoma, who ended up as the Second Team Out, was listed on just one bracket on March 1. They beat West Virginia and Kansas State to close the season then upset Baylor in the Big 12 tournament before losing by a point to Texas Tech.

 

[GimmeSomeMore]

3/1 updated bracket

SOUTH REGION – Louisville		MIDWEST REGION – Kansas City
Birmingham		Birmingham
1) Alabama		1) Houston
16) Alcorn State-FDU		16) Texas A&M Corpus Christi
8) Rutgers		8) Illinois
9) Providence		9) Arkansas
Orlando		Orlando
5) Saint Mary's		5) Xavier
12) VCU		12) Southern Mississippi
4) Indiana		4) TCU
13) Toledo		13) Utah Valley State
Greensboro		Greensboro
6) Iowa		6) Kentucky
11) Nevada		11) Wisconsin-North Carolina St
3) Tennessee		3) Kansas State
14) Furman		14) Colgate
Des Moines		Denver
7) Missouri		7) Duke
10) Boise State		10) Mississippi State
2) Baylor		2) Texas
15) Kennesaw State		15) Vermont
WEST REGION – Las Vegas		EAST REGION – New York
Des Moines		Columbus
1) Kansas		1) Purdue
16) UNC Asheville		16) Howard-Morehead State
8) Texas A&M		8) Iowa State
9) Pittsburgh		9) Florida Atlantic
Albany		Albany
5) Miami		5) Creighton
12) Oral Roberts		12) Bradley
4) Connecticut		4) Virginia
13) Iona		13) Hofstra
Sacramento		Columbus
6) San Diego State		6) Northwestern
11) USC-Michigan		11) Memphis
3) Gonzaga		3) Marquette
14) UC Irvine		14) Yale
Denver		Sacramento
7) Maryland		7) Michigan State
10) West Virginia		10) Auburn
2) Arizona		2) UCLA
15) Eastern Washington		15) Youngstown State

LAST 4 BYES: NEVADA, MEMPHIS, MISSISSIPPI STATE, AUBURN
LAST 4 IN: USC, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, WISCONSIN

FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA STATE, UTAH STATE, PENN STATE
NEXT 6 OUT: CHARLESTON, NEW MEXICO, CLEMSON, OKLAHOMA STATE, OREGON, TEXAS TECH


Rutgers moves up a spot in seeding to 8.
Iowa jumps to a 6 seed.
NC State spirals to the last 4 in.
Iowa State is readjusted and now falls to a 8 seed.
Boise State is now above the last 8 in
Not much of a bubble this year.

If we win the next four [trip to conference final], I see us where Iowa/NW is - and would love either of those 6 spots.

 

[G- RUnit]

I think the most interesting development is NC State fighting UNC for a bid.

 

[rubigtimenow]

Jerry Palm had us an 11 today. Ouch

He had us out last year, right? He’s a tool when it comes to projecting RU.

 

[G- RUnit]

Palm is awful. But, I'd sign up for TCU, Tennessee and UC Irvine in our mini bracket!

I’d hate that. Two of the better teams in the entire country especially if TCU player is healthy.

 

[GRU23]

One positive about the fact we’re likely an 8 or 9 seed is I’m not all too blown away by the 1 seeds. Alabama would probably be the worst team we could face. The others are possibly beatable, even if not likely

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

3/1 updated bracket

SOUTH REGION – Louisville		MIDWEST REGION – Kansas City
Birmingham		Birmingham
1) Alabama		1) Houston
16) Alcorn State-FDU		16) Texas A&M Corpus Christi
8) Rutgers		8) Illinois
9) Providence		9) Arkansas
Orlando		Orlando
5) Saint Mary's		5) Xavier
12) VCU		12) Southern Mississippi
4) Indiana		4) TCU
13) Toledo		13) Utah Valley State
Greensboro		Greensboro
6) Iowa		6) Kentucky
11) Nevada		11) Wisconsin-North Carolina St
3) Tennessee		3) Kansas State
14) Furman		14) Colgate
Des Moines		Denver
7) Missouri		7) Duke
10) Boise State		10) Mississippi State
2) Baylor		2) Texas
15) Kennesaw State		15) Vermont
WEST REGION – Las Vegas		EAST REGION – New York
Des Moines		Columbus
1) Kansas		1) Purdue
16) UNC Asheville		16) Howard-Morehead State
8) Texas A&M		8) Iowa State
9) Pittsburgh		9) Florida Atlantic
Albany		Albany
5) Miami		5) Creighton
12) Oral Roberts		12) Bradley
4) Connecticut		4) Virginia
13) Iona		13) Hofstra
Sacramento		Columbus
6) San Diego State		6) Northwestern
11) USC-Michigan		11) Memphis
3) Gonzaga		3) Marquette
14) UC Irvine		14) Yale
Denver		Sacramento
7) Maryland		7) Michigan State
10) West Virginia		10) Auburn
2) Arizona		2) UCLA
15) Eastern Washington		15) Youngstown State

LAST 4 BYES: NEVADA, MEMPHIS, MISSISSIPPI STATE, AUBURN
LAST 4 IN: USC, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, WISCONSIN

FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA STATE, UTAH STATE, PENN STATE
NEXT 6 OUT: CHARLESTON, NEW MEXICO, CLEMSON, OKLAHOMA STATE, OREGON, TEXAS TECH


Rutgers moves up a spot in seeding to 8.
Iowa jumps to a 6 seed.
NC State spirals to the last 4 in.
Iowa State is readjusted and now falls to a 8 seed.
Boise State is now above the last 8 in
Not much of a bubble this year.

Looks very good overall.

I’m even less convinced though on the explanations given for Creighton’s 5 seed, with such a drop to Iowa State (which I don’t necessarily disagree with). Based on bodies of work - how can 12 loss Iowa State(only one more) possibly slot in 3 whole seed lines below 11 loss Creighton?

You had explained that Creighton beat a trio of great NET teams (UConn, Xavier and Arkansas) and not as bad losses as RU. That makes sense I guess compared to RU. But now look at Iowa State - no bad losses and wins blowing Creighton’s out of the water. On a relative basis, that would be a major screw job to Iowa State if it’s really true that recent performance isn’t supposed to count more.

 

[gregkoko]

One positive about the fact we’re likely an 8 or 9 seed is I’m not all too blown away by the 1 seeds. Alabama would probably be the worst team we could face. The others are possibly beatable, even if not likely

Kansas is scary good. Don't they have the most Q1 wins all time in a single season at this point?

 

[mikemarc1]

I know it’s only one game but the way they absolutely dismantled Illinois in a big rivalry game makes me leery of playing them.

They’re also probably saying about us: “I know it’s only one game, but they way they went into west Lafayette and took down undefeated #1 Purdue makes me leery of playing them”.

 

[G- RUnit]

One positive about the fact we’re likely an 8 or 9 seed is I’m not all too blown away by the 1 seeds. Alabama would probably be the worst team we could face. The others are possibly beatable, even if not likely

Alabama in Birmingham might be the most difficult game for anybody all tourney unless Houston gets to Houston. UConn in the Garden. We can’t get Purdue… or highly unlikely. Wouldn’t mind Houston.

 

[G- RUnit]

Looks very good overall.

I’m even less convinced though on the explanations given for Creighton’s 5 seed, with such a drop to Iowa State (which I don’t necessarily disagree with). Based on bodies of work - how can 12 loss Iowa State(only one more) possibly slot in 3 whole seed lines below 11 loss Creighton?

You had explained that Creighton beat a trio of great NET teams (UConn, Xavier and Arkansas) and not as bad losses as RU. That makes sense I guess compared to RU. But now look at Iowa State - no bad losses and wins blowing Creighton’s out of the water. On a relative basis, that would be a major screw job to Iowa State if it’s really true that recent performance isn’t supposed to count more.

But even though they say that, you know it does.

 

[ClassOf02]

Alabama in Birmingham might be the most difficult game for anybody all tourney unless Houston gets to Houston. UConn in the Garden. We can’t get Purdue… or highly unlikely. Wouldn’t mind Houston.

Same thought. A first round matchup against Providence would be interesting, but man playing Bama in Birmingham sounds brutal. I’d love to see us play ourselves into a 7 seed or fall back to a 10 (as weird as that sounds).

 

[bac2therac]

Looks very good overall.

I’m even less convinced though on the explanations given for Creighton’s 5 seed, with such a drop to Iowa State (which I don’t necessarily disagree with). Based on bodies of work - how can 12 loss Iowa State(only one more) possibly slot in 3 whole seed lines below 11 loss Creighton?

You had explained that Creighton beat a trio of great NET teams (UConn, Xavier and Arkansas) and not as bad losses as RU. That makes sense I guess compared to RU. But now look at Iowa State - no bad losses and wins blowing Creighton’s out of the water. On a relative basis, that would be a major screw job to Iowa State if it’s really true that recent performance isn’t supposed to count more.

Creighton is my last 5. They are there because someone had to go there and with the San Diego State loss I was not going to bump the Aztecs to 5. It is very close from the last 5 all the way down to the 2nd 8 which is Iowa State. Not as much as you think seperating these so do not get worked over it.

the injury thing which isnt a big factor WILL be in play for Creighton when it comes to analyzing their profile. Their NET is at 15 compared to ISU 27. With respect to Iowa State. The Cyclones are now just 11-12 in Q1/2/3 games. Thats what you would see from bubble schools. Creighton is 14-11 in that area. Non conference sos is decidedly to Creighton and Iowa State for now just a tad ahead overall. I realize that Iowa State has those high end wins and 8 Q1 wins but now they are down to just 6 wins vs the field. Yes I am going to penalize them and lets see if they can move themselves back up again because I assure a 17-14 or 18-14 Iowa State is not going to be listed in the top 6 seeds

After this weekend given the schedule, Creighton will be 20-11 and Iowa State will be 17-13 after they lose at Baylor.

There is no screw job for a school that will have then lost 9 of 11

we will see how it goes with Creighton, yeah im not that big a fan of their profile and they can slip to a 7 but to me them being as a next considered in the ncaa reveal makes me believe the committee thinks highly of them. Iowa State was a 3 and havent won since.

 

[bac2therac]

Same thought. A first round matchup against Providence would be interesting, but man playing Bama in Birmingham sounds brutal. I’d love to see us play ourselves into a 7 seed or fall back to a 10 (as weird as that sounds).

lose to Northwestern and first big 10 tourney game and that could happen

 

[ceranm]

3/1 updated bracket

SOUTH REGION – Louisville		MIDWEST REGION – Kansas City
Birmingham		Birmingham
1) Alabama		1) Houston
16) Alcorn State-FDU		16) Texas A&M Corpus Christi
8) Rutgers		8) Illinois
9) Providence		9) Arkansas
Orlando		Orlando
5) Saint Mary's		5) Xavier
12) VCU		12) Southern Mississippi
4) Indiana		4) TCU
13) Toledo		13) Utah Valley State
Greensboro		Greensboro
6) Iowa		6) Kentucky
11) Nevada		11) Wisconsin-North Carolina St
3) Tennessee		3) Kansas State
14) Furman		14) Colgate
Des Moines		Denver
7) Missouri		7) Duke
10) Boise State		10) Mississippi State
2) Baylor		2) Texas
15) Kennesaw State		15) Vermont
WEST REGION – Las Vegas		EAST REGION – New York
Des Moines		Columbus
1) Kansas		1) Purdue
16) UNC Asheville		16) Howard-Morehead State
8) Texas A&M		8) Iowa State
9) Pittsburgh		9) Florida Atlantic
Albany		Albany
5) Miami		5) Creighton
12) Oral Roberts		12) Bradley
4) Connecticut		4) Virginia
13) Iona		13) Hofstra
Sacramento		Columbus
6) San Diego State		6) Northwestern
11) USC-Michigan		11) Memphis
3) Gonzaga		3) Marquette
14) UC Irvine		14) Yale
Denver		Sacramento
7) Maryland		7) Michigan State
10) West Virginia		10) Auburn
2) Arizona		2) UCLA
15) Eastern Washington		15) Youngstown State

LAST 4 BYES: NEVADA, MEMPHIS, MISSISSIPPI STATE, AUBURN
LAST 4 IN: USC, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, WISCONSIN

FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA STATE, UTAH STATE, PENN STATE
NEXT 6 OUT: CHARLESTON, NEW MEXICO, CLEMSON, OKLAHOMA STATE, OREGON, TEXAS TECH


Rutgers moves up a spot in seeding to 8.
Iowa jumps to a 6 seed.
NC State spirals to the last 4 in.
Iowa State is readjusted and now falls to a 8 seed.
Boise State is now above the last 8 in
Not much of a bubble this year.

Sorry if this has been asked and answered, but if Rutgers loses to Minnesota but beats NW and loses first Big Ten Game, do you consider them a lock?

 

[GimmeSomeMore]

I’d hate that. Two of the better teams in the entire country especially if TCU player is healthy.

Tennessee can't score consistently [which is who we thrive against] and likely lost their PG last night for the year.
TCU has lost 7 of 9

 

[GRU23]

Kansas is scary good. Don't they have the most Q1 wins all time in a single season at this point?

It’s a great team. But they’re certainly beatable and defending champions have not fared to well in recent memory. They’re also not overwhelmingly talented or athletic, which are the things I’d be most concerned with in the teams we face.

 

[bac2therac]

I think the most interesting development is NC State fighting UNC for a bid.

quite possibly but both could get it. Nc State will get a dreg like fsu in the 2nd round of acc tourney..if they lose thats when they will be knocked out. probably okay if they lose but their next matchup would be vs Miami or Virginia.

if UNC beats Duke, I think they have a better resume than Nc State so would move ahead of them in the pecking order

 

[bac2therac]

It’s a great team. But they’re certainly beatable and defending champions have not fared to well in recent memory. They’re also not overwhelmingly talented or athletic, which are the things I’d be most concerned with in the teams we face.

they looked mediocre last night vs Texas Tech at home

 

[G- RUnit]

Tennessee can't score consistently [which is who we thrive against] and likely lost their PG last night for the year.
TCU has lost 7 of 9

I did not know that! TY!!!
TCU was in same boat with injured player who just came back!
That does help who gets in Tennessee bracket. ;-)

 

[koko2315]

Jerry Palm had us an 11 today. Ouch

F that guy

 

[G- RUnit]

F that guy

As long as not a play in game…. Not exactly bummed about that. Roll the dice….

 

[G- RUnit]

I did not know about Tennessee starting point guard getting hurt.

Thanks GimmeSomeMore!

What does that do for their seeding?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Creighton is my last 5. They are there because someone had to go there and with the San Diego State loss I was not going to bump the Aztecs to 5. It is very close from the last 5 all the way down to the 2nd 8 which is Iowa State. Not as much as you think seperating these so do not get worked over it.

the injury thing which isnt a big factor WILL be in play for Creighton when it comes to analyzing their profile. Their NET is at 15 compared to ISU 27. With respect to Iowa State. The Cyclones are now just 11-12 in Q1/2/3 games. Thats what you would see from bubble schools. Creighton is 14-11 in that area. Non conference sos is decidedly to Creighton and Iowa State for now just a tad ahead overall. I realize that Iowa State has those high end wins and 8 Q1 wins but now they are down to just 6 wins vs the field. Yes I am going to penalize them and lets see if they can move themselves back up again because I assure a 17-14 or 18-14 Iowa State is not going to be listed in the top 6 seeds

After this weekend given the schedule, Creighton will be 20-11 and Iowa State will be 17-13 after they lose at Baylor.

There is no screw job for a school that will have then lost 9 of 11

we will see how it goes with Creighton, yeah im not that big a fan of their profile and they can slip to a 7 but to me them being as a next considered in the ncaa reveal makes me believe the committee thinks highly of them. Iowa State was a 3 and havent won since.

Thanks. Mostly makes sense but one thing to point out.

You say Iowa State only has 6 wins vs. the field, but Creighton actually only has 4 wins against the field and two of them were against teams that will likely be in the lower half of the bracket. None of them are true road games and the two games against 5ish seeds were at home. I understand the NET says Creighton is a better team, but the resume just doesn’t seem to match the profile of a 5 seed - not with 11 losses playing in a conference with teams like Georgetown, DePaul, Butler and SJU.

Also, UNC still might end up getting in so that would make 7 for Iowa State.

No idea who I would put in front of them though. I agree that SDSU is overrated so they def wouldn’t be my pick either. Of your 6 seeds - Kentucky maybe? They are short on quality wins too but have 2 less losses than Creighton despite playing Gonzaga, UCLA, Kansas and Michigan State in non-conference.

 

[kcg88]

Bauertology has Rutgers as the top #9

Bauertology: 3/1/23

This. Is. March. The greatest month of the year. The time of year when thousands of college basketball games played over the past four months deliver the payoff. Conference tournaments. Selection S…

bauertology.com

 

[bac2therac]

Sorry if this has been asked and answered, but if Rutgers loses to Minnesota but beats NW and loses first Big Ten Game, do you consider them a lock?

Yes but still could wind up in Dayton

 

[BigEastPhil]

Would take Birmingham any day over Des Moines regardless of it being a dump and probably harassed by Bama fans.

 

[Scangg]

Rutgers vs Providence would be an interesting 8/9 matchup if Teng hasn't committed yet since those are the top 2 schools in his recruitment with a decision supposedly coming soon

 

[G- RUnit]

Would take Birmingham any day over Des Moines regardless of it being a dump and probably harassed by Bama fans.

Went there for Birmingham Bowl. Although it’s dumpy it was fun.

 

[fluoxetine]

Still think we need to win Thursday at Minnesota... but as you said, beating NW again could alleviate the damage there. Lose both and I think the committee says that THIS current Rutgers team is not the team that built that resume. I think that will be the case if disaster strikes and then the usual upsets occur in the *AQ* games.

The deciding factor will be HOW MANY B1G TEN teams can make a case. The reason is that while the Big Ten rep can wheel and deal in a general sense.. he/she cannot be in the room when Big Ten teams are discussed. And who does that leave in the room? Why.. all the interested parties from other conferences who will throw around the memory of how poorly the Big Ten did last year's tourney DESPITE all the hype of how good and deep they were. Eliminating any Big Ten team by highlighting the negatives will likely happen. Same could be true for other conferences. And the Big Ten has made enemies with the PAC.. so I expect some shenanigans.. conference-politics shenanigans.

Is this opposite day?

 

[RutgersDom]

Looks very good overall.

I’m even less convinced though on the explanations given for Creighton’s 5 seed, with such a drop to Iowa State (which I don’t necessarily disagree with). Based on bodies of work - how can 12 loss Iowa State(only one more) possibly slot in 3 whole seed lines below 11 loss Creighton?

You had explained that Creighton beat a trio of great NET teams (UConn, Xavier and Arkansas) and not as bad losses as RU. That makes sense I guess compared to RU. But now look at Iowa State - no bad losses and wins blowing Creighton’s out of the water. On a relative basis, that would be a major screw job to Iowa State if it’s really true that recent performance isn’t supposed to count more.

BAC are your seeds (NOT team projections) & cities 100% accurate or is that a projection as well? I'm trying to understand if the seeds and cities are already determined...

 

[bac2therac]

no the seeds/locations not determined....its there to set a bracket although i am determining the most likeliest spots for the seeds lines

for example, both Houston and Alabama are going to wind up in Birmingham.

UConn as a 4 is going to go to Albany

 

[Salvi's Headband]

As long as not a play in game…. Not exactly bummed about that. Roll the dice….

True it's arguably better than a 9.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

no the seeds/locations not determined....its there to set a bracket although i am determining the most likeliest spots for the seeds lines

for example, both Houston and Alabama are going to wind up in Birmingham.

UConn as a 4 is going to go to Albany

I’m not understanding why it’s being said that our odds at Albany are lower than anyone elses? If UConn goes there as a 4 - why couldn’t we be there as an 8 or a 9? It could even be them and Xavier sent there
in separate pods couldn’t it? Columbus is already out for us.

Also - isn’t there a chance Marquette gets sent there too in the other pod. They could be a 2 or a 3 and then we could get sent there as a 6, 7, 10 or 11. Right?

 

[bac2therac]

I’m not understanding why it’s being said that our odds at Albany are lower than anyone elses? If UConn goes there as a 4 - why couldn’t we be there as an 8 or a 9? It could even be them and Xavier sent there
in separate pods couldn’t it? Columbus is already out for us.

Also - isn’t there a chance Marquette gets sent there too in the other pod. They could be a 2 or a 3 and then we could get sent there as a 6, 7, 10 or 11. Right?

because the 1s are not going to Albany......Houston to Birmingham, Alabama to Birmingham, Kansas to De Moines, Purdue to Columbus

if Marquette is a 2 they are going to be protected and go closest to where they are so thats either Des Moines or Columbus

UConn could be a 3 very easily..there could be two 3s and they both might wind up in Albany...RU extremely unlikely as a 6 but yes could be an 11

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

because the 1s are not going to Albany......Houston to Birmingham, Alabama to Birmingham, Kansas to De Moines, Purdue to Columbus

if Marquette is a 2 they are going to be protected and go closest to where they are so thats either Des Moines or Columbus

UConn could be a 3 very easily..there could be two 3s and they both might wind up in Albany...RU extremely unlikely as a 6 but yes could be an 11

I see. So basically our only chance would be to win a couple games in the conference tourney and somehow move up to a 6 or barely sneak into the field as an 11.

 

[mikemarc1]

I see. So basically our only chance would be to win a couple games in the conference tourney and somehow move up to a 6 or barely sneak into the field as an 11.

Or, miraculously…UCONN somehow gets a 2 seed. And we are a 7 or 10 seed.

 

[bac2therac]

Or, miraculously…UCONN somehow gets a 2 seed. And we are a 7 or 10 seed.

its unlikely but not totally out of the question

 

[bac2therac]

I see. So basically our only chance would be to win a couple games in the conference tourney and somehow move up to a 6 or barely sneak into the field as an 11.

the 3 Q3 losses are what is killer right now when our profile is paired with Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana, Northwestern, and Maryland . Our seeding is going to get dinged because of those losses so we would need to beat NW and then probably make the finals to get a 6 seed