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BACATOLOGY 3/11: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

downthestairs said:
I didn't realize Oklahoma literally had no non-Q1 losses.

Makes me agree with Clemson's coach. I think NET itself isn't supposed to be used to analyze a team (to do so would be tantamount to rewarding shooting percentage and margin of victory), but it can easily be gamed on the conference level.

If a conference basically collectively decides to all schedule light and beat up on teams, then every win or loss is a Q1 or Q2 win lol. Although I can't really tell how much more the Big 12 does or can do this relative to other power conferences.

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well 2 of oklahomas Q1 wins are to central florida and cincinnati...two teams that are mediocre...cincy with the inflated net number with a weak ooc schedule

yes there are schools gaming the system and the big 12 certainly did this in concert with one another
 
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barring a historic collapse, Mississippi State is going to dance...up 38-19 over Tennessee wow.....Tennessee will lose their #1 overall seed to UNC
 
Refs to the rescue for Purdue. Think Izzo might lose it.

2 point game!
 
bac2therac said:
yep and I think the reason we were souring on big 10 was those were second round games...all the other leagues were in quarterfinal action last night, big 10 should be a good watch today
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Good point. On that note I'm not mad that only the top 14 make it next year
 
Looks like MSU will beat Tennessee and in.
We really did have a good OOC.

Tennessee no longer a one?
UNC or Arizona?
 
Top seed Sam Houston is out in Conference USA falling to UTEP in a semifinal matchup, Western Kentucky is now the projected AQ
 
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Mississippi State locks it up with a rousing 73-56 romp over Tennessee

where they sit is up for grabs but 8/9 line likely....Tennessee now loses their one seed to North Carolina
 
update

LAST FOUR BYES: MICHIGAN STATE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, OKLAHOMA, SETON HALL

LAST FOUR IN: TEXAS A&M, PROVIDENCE, COLORADO, VIRGINIA

FIRST FOUR OUT: PITTSBURGH, NEW MEXICO, SAINT JOHNS, INDIANA STATE

NEXT FOUR OUT: OHIO STATE, WAKE FOREST, VILLANOVA, KANSAS STATE

SOME CONSIDERATION: IOWA, CINCINNATI, UTAH, OREGON, MEMPHIS, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, VIRGINIA TECH, RICHMOND
 
AJ Storr and Boo Buie show right now. Each have almost 30 points
 
bac2therac said:
Seton Hall may be a 10 right now but when the dust settles they are very very likely to be in the first four games because of the NET which will ding seeding. I will not even say SHU is a lock yet, I have seen a couple of guys bump them out today. What if Providence and St Johns both win today. I dont think all 7 are making it. SHU certainly has those great wins but the flaws reside with their non conference stuff which shows Missouri as their best win and even a Q3 loss to RU. Some say the committee might say well they beat UConn when a couple of guys were hurt for UConn, I do not think that but some are trying to diminish it. Everyone locked them in after the Nova win but the Nova win has lost almost all its luster today.

I dont like Oklahomas resume....4-12 vs Q1 to me shows that they lose alot...they have no loss outside Q1 though so that itself is noteworthy. I do not like they have only 2 wins vs teams in field...3 if you include PC, Their strength of record is 32 and that sways me that they are going to get in. Very good results based number and they have an overall sos of 18. Probably just enough to make it
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A lot of people jumped St. John's over Seton Hall after yesterday's game. Perhaps for seeding solely based on NET, but in terms of overall resume for getting in SJU would have to beat UConn today to make that a reality, no?
 
STLPirate12 said:
A lot of people jumped St. John's over Seton Hall after yesterday's game. Perhaps for seeding solely based on NET, but in terms of overall resume for getting in SJU would have to beat UConn today to make that a reality, no?
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yeah I was guilty at first but then after comparing all the teams after the new metrics came in, St Johns really doesnt fair that great..no disrespect to shu but sju only beat a team ranked 61 in the NET...that shouldnt move the needle that many spots

i think they could get in without beating UConn but if they truly deserve it then they will go out and win
 
everyone wrote Wisconsin off but here they are after stabilizing themselves....now looking a 6, outside shot at 5....here is the thing...possibly 11 are Drake and Princeton and or the play in games.
 
bac2therac said:
yeah I was guilty at first but then after comparing all the teams after the new metrics came in, St Johns really doesnt fair that great..no disrespect to shu but sju only beat a team ranked 61 in the NET...that shouldnt move the needle that many spots

i think they could get in without beating UConn but if they truly deserve it then they will go out and win
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I agree they could get in without beating UConn, I was just having trouble grasping the predictions that had St. John's in and Seton Hall out.

Perhaps St. John's is more likely to avoid Dayton if they both get in because the NET is so much better, though I obviously wouldn't love that scenario. Reality is that the Hall tanked it's own NET by it's propensity for getting blown out. I believe it's something like 6 losses by 18+ points. When they're on their game they can play with a lot of teams, but when they're off...woof. They don't even give themselves a chance.
 
The hoop is screwed up again in Fort Worth. Happened yesterday as well after a dunk.

Makes me really miss the AAC
 
STLPirate12 said:
I agree they could get in without beating UConn, I was just having trouble grasping the predictions that had St. John's in and Seton Hall out.

Perhaps St. John's is more likely to avoid Dayton if they both get in because the NET is so much better, though I obviously wouldn't love that scenario. Reality is that the Hall tanked it's own NET by it's propensity for getting blown out. I believe it's something like 6 losses by 18+ points. When they're on their game they can play with a lot of teams, but when they're off...woof. They don't even give themselves a chance.
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too many people who never did bracketology the past 6 weeks all of sudden saying this team is a lock and repeating themselves without realizing nothing happens in a vacuum..heard it yesterday with St Johns is in, Providence is in, New Mexico is in, Pitt is in. Wake should still be in blecch garbage espn analysts
 
bac2therac said:
too many people who never did bracketology the past 6 weeks all of sudden saying this team is a lock and repeating themselves without realizing nothing happens in a vacuum..heard it yesterday with St Johns is in, Providence is in, New Mexico is in, Pitt is in. Wake should still be in blecch garbage espn analysts
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bac2therac said:
big Providence fan tonight...i dont see all 3 of these Big East teams getting in. Bubble too strong for that and Providence would clearly be in with a win..lets hope uconn wins 100-40
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Great game early. My first time rooting for Cam all year 😬
 
just when i put South Carolina up to a 5 seed they go and lose by 29 to Auburn

Tigers might just sneak in as 3 vs Kansas with the possibility of injuries hanging over the Jayhawks
 
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