BACATOLOGY 3/11: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Party is over for on the Mainline. NIT home games at DuPont Pavilion
He will get one more year
Only one school ever with 15 losses and that Vandy team had #1 SOS
Big east isnt getting 7
Florida survives
Colorado up by a fg over Utah at half
New Mexico up 7 over Boise in 1st half ready to add to bubble mayhem
Colorado up by a fg over Utah at half
New Mexico up 7 over Boise in 1st half ready to add to bubble mayhem
I agree but if they had lost to 0-20 in conference play DePaul in the opener I wonder if he survives that .
Don't know how Sr John's is considered ahead of Pc. St John's has 3 win over teams in the field right now. Four if you count us. With Villanova now out that takes a lot of starch out of their resume. PC has six wins over teams in field if you count St John's. Also Utah falling off a cliff hurts them also.
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Is it just me or do all the b1g teams just seem slow.
That team had some great guard play. Great guard play and heart. Martumelli really did a good job with that group.
And with the pac defunct the t mobile center has an opening.
Has been that way seemingly forever. Generally physical, big and slow. I think the style of play in the B1G hurts these teams in the NCAA tournament. I wish the league would go to 18 games, or even 16, to allow more inter league completion later in the season but it won’t happen. It’s kind of amazing that the B1G hasn’t won the tournament since the 2000 Michigan State team. Although I think Illinois could do well on the tournament, the only legit shot at a title this year is Purdue, who has choked the last two seasons and you can’t get much bigger or slower than Purdue.
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The sub 500 mark in q123..10-12 will be 10-13 with next loss...3 games under 500
None of these schools including St Johns PC and SHU are locks
Do you think the wins by st John's or PC matter a great deal or was their fate already determined by the committee prior to the conf tourneys. If the committee is not counting tournament wins all that much then these teams were either in or out prior to the start if the week.
I don't think it's whether they win or lose in the tournament. It's adding that one more q1/q2 win or loss to the resumes which push teams one way or the other.
definitely something to consider...every year bracketologists and tv pundits put too much emphasis on conference tourney performance for selection and seeding. Its an easy trap to fall into and everyone is guilty including me. Yet everyone forgets the next year and the committee last year showed it that field was likely locked up mostly before Friday
Now this year is different, the bubble is much stronger. There were a large grouping of teams very close and early tourney action definitely is considered in those cases. The striking thing is the bubble is winning and usually it does not happen. Its making it very difficult to seperate the schools St Johns win over Seton Hall was only a win vs a team barely in the field. Providence got a win over a 3 seed. Virginia went to overtime to beat mediocrity yet they may already be baked into the field. Providence may have been determined to be out of the field and remember there is an injury there despite yesterdays win.
I think St Johns would do themselves well to beat UConn. Ditto for Providence over Marquette. Is it too late, maybe, but its better to be playing than not.
bubble or seeding impact games today.....
Michigan State/Purdue.....Sparty seems safe but seeding could be all over the place
East Carolina/South Florida.....Bulls are projected AAC AQ but their at large chances are slim so another at large spot could potentially open
Mississippi State/Tennessee.....MSU is not safe, tough to expect them to win today but crucial to pass the eye test.
Wisconsin/Northwestern.....Badgers still have potential to get a 5 though 6 seems more appropriate. Wildcats seem destined for 8-9 line
St John's/Connecticut.....Redmen would make it academic with a win, without it though Ricky will be sweating through his white suit
Ohio State/Illinois.....zombie resume and again I just think they were too far back in the pack entering conference tourney play to make a difference
Pittsburgh/North Carolina.....Panthers hit the committee checkbox for quality road wins but giving a bid with that 344 OOC SOS would be historic, need to win today
Texas A&M/Kentucky.....this morning woke up with 5 Q3 losses and not being helped by the rest of the bubble winning. Aggies need to win today.
North Texas/FAU.....Owls are safe but seeding could fall if they do not reach the AAC finals
Providence/Marquette.....Friars are just 10-12 in Q1/2/3 so despite the big win last night, I would recommend they win tonight
Oregon/Arizona.....bid stealer Ducks have little at large chance so they need to win this one
Indiana/Nebraska.....Huskers are safe but a loss could put them closer to those last 4 games
North Carolina State.....potential bid stealer Wolfpack even with the win over Duke have no at large hope while UVA wobbles along but its resume hits certain things the committee covets but a win here would lock them in
Colorado/Washington State....with only one win vs the field, Buffs would do themselves well to win this one. Wa State needs this to keep hopes of a 6 seed and avoid 8/9
Colorado State/New Mexico.....amazing NET at 23 and another quad 1 win would make it very difficult for the committee to leave out.
Michigan State/Purdue.....Sparty seems safe but seeding could be all over the place
East Carolina/South Florida.....Bulls are projected AAC AQ but their at large chances are slim so another at large spot could potentially open
Mississippi State/Tennessee.....MSU is not safe, tough to expect them to win today but crucial to pass the eye test.
Wisconsin/Northwestern.....Badgers still have potential to get a 5 though 6 seems more appropriate. Wildcats seem destined for 8-9 line
St John's/Connecticut.....Redmen would make it academic with a win, without it though Ricky will be sweating through his white suit
Ohio State/Illinois.....zombie resume and again I just think they were too far back in the pack entering conference tourney play to make a difference
Pittsburgh/North Carolina.....Panthers hit the committee checkbox for quality road wins but giving a bid with that 344 OOC SOS would be historic, need to win today
Texas A&M/Kentucky.....this morning woke up with 5 Q3 losses and not being helped by the rest of the bubble winning. Aggies need to win today.
North Texas/FAU.....Owls are safe but seeding could fall if they do not reach the AAC finals
Providence/Marquette.....Friars are just 10-12 in Q1/2/3 so despite the big win last night, I would recommend they win tonight
Oregon/Arizona.....bid stealer Ducks have little at large chance so they need to win this one
Indiana/Nebraska.....Huskers are safe but a loss could put them closer to those last 4 games
North Carolina State.....potential bid stealer Wolfpack even with the win over Duke have no at large hope while UVA wobbles along but its resume hits certain things the committee covets but a win here would lock them in
Colorado/Washington State....with only one win vs the field, Buffs would do themselves well to win this one. Wa State needs this to keep hopes of a 6 seed and avoid 8/9
Colorado State/New Mexico.....amazing NET at 23 and another quad 1 win would make it very difficult for the committee to leave out.
I am trying to work on my last team in heading into today and its incredibly difficult
TEXAS A&M
PITT
PROVIDENCE
NEW MEXIC0
SAINT JOHNS
all 5 schools have major flaw that seems different from each other and strengths that are different from each other
A&M has 5 Q3 losses but 12-8 in Q1 is better than just about any school not a top 3 seed
Pitt has non conference sos of 344 but has 5 road wins in Q1/2
Providence is just 10-12 in Q1/2/3 and unless they win today will be 3 games below 500 in that catagory but has 6 Q1 wins and 6 wins vs teams in the field
New Mexico has a SOR of 63, a Q4 loss, just one quality road win but possibly 7 wins vs the field and a net of 23
Saint John's is a fine 10-11 in Q1/2 and is clearly passing an eye test but perhaps only 2 wins vs the field
TEXAS A&M
PITT
PROVIDENCE
NEW MEXIC0
SAINT JOHNS
all 5 schools have major flaw that seems different from each other and strengths that are different from each other
A&M has 5 Q3 losses but 12-8 in Q1 is better than just about any school not a top 3 seed
Pitt has non conference sos of 344 but has 5 road wins in Q1/2
Providence is just 10-12 in Q1/2/3 and unless they win today will be 3 games below 500 in that catagory but has 6 Q1 wins and 6 wins vs teams in the field
New Mexico has a SOR of 63, a Q4 loss, just one quality road win but possibly 7 wins vs the field and a net of 23
Saint John's is a fine 10-11 in Q1/2 and is clearly passing an eye test but perhaps only 2 wins vs the field
Lets go with this for now......some teams look good when compared to one team but when you compare in groups things can be different
LAST FOUR BYES: MICHIGAN STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, OKLAHOMA, SETON HALL
LAST FOUR IN: TEXAS A&M, PROVIDENCE, COLORADO, VIRGINIA
FIRST FOUR OUT: PITTSBURGH, NEW MEXICO, SAINT JOHNS, INDIANA STATE
NEXT FOUR OUT: OHIO STATE, WAKE FOREST, VILLANOVA, KANSAS STATE
SOME CONSIDERATION: IOWA, CINCINNATI, UTAH, OREGON, MEMPHIS, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, VIRGINIA TECH, RICHMOND
LAST FOUR BYES: MICHIGAN STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, OKLAHOMA, SETON HALL
LAST FOUR IN: TEXAS A&M, PROVIDENCE, COLORADO, VIRGINIA
FIRST FOUR OUT: PITTSBURGH, NEW MEXICO, SAINT JOHNS, INDIANA STATE
NEXT FOUR OUT: OHIO STATE, WAKE FOREST, VILLANOVA, KANSAS STATE
SOME CONSIDERATION: IOWA, CINCINNATI, UTAH, OREGON, MEMPHIS, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, VIRGINIA TECH, RICHMOND
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I am less confident on them than yesterday
they had a good win yesterday over Seton Hall but bottom line was it was over a team currently seeded 10th. New Mexico got a win over a 8 seed in Boise State. Providence got a win over a 3 seed in Creighton.
plus a closer look at Pitt is showing that road mark is very very good and the selection committee LOVES that
tough balance because its clear St Johns passes the eye test compared to Virginia but will that influence anything, that isnt criteria and the Johnnies fall short in a few resume catagories
Providence get the edge for now but one more loss puts them at 10-13 so they could be bounced tomorrow.
Both need to win today.
Hey Bac, it feels like a lot of recent brackets have dropped the Hall but kept Oklahoma safely in. What do you think accounts for this divergence? Could people be overestimating Oklahoma's chances to stay in?
Seton Hall may be a 10 right now but when the dust settles they are very very likely to be in the first four games because of the NET which will ding seeding. I will not even say SHU is a lock yet, I have seen a couple of guys bump them out today. What if Providence and St Johns both win today. I dont think all 7 are making it. SHU certainly has those great wins but the flaws reside with their non conference stuff which shows Missouri as their best win and even a Q3 loss to RU. Some say the committee might say well they beat UConn when a couple of guys were hurt for UConn, I do not think that but some are trying to diminish it. Everyone locked them in after the Nova win but the Nova win has lost almost all its luster today.
I dont like Oklahomas resume....4-12 vs Q1 to me shows that they lose alot...they have no loss outside Q1 though so that itself is noteworthy. I do not like they have only 2 wins vs teams in field...3 if you include PC, Their strength of record is 32 and that sways me that they are going to get in. Very good results based number and they have an overall sos of 18. Probably just enough to make it
I dont like Oklahomas resume....4-12 vs Q1 to me shows that they lose alot...they have no loss outside Q1 though so that itself is noteworthy. I do not like they have only 2 wins vs teams in field...3 if you include PC, Their strength of record is 32 and that sways me that they are going to get in. Very good results based number and they have an overall sos of 18. Probably just enough to make it
I didn't realize Oklahoma literally had no non-Q1 losses.
Makes me agree with Clemson's coach. I think NET itself isn't supposed to be used to analyze a team (to do so would be tantamount to rewarding shooting percentage and margin of victory), but it can easily be gamed on the conference level.
If a conference basically collectively decides to all schedule light and beat up on teams, then every win or loss is a Q1 or Q2 win lol. Although I can't really tell how much more the Big 12 does or can do this relative to other power conferences.
