BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 2/14 UPDATE 2/19 ON PAGE 17
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Sorry, you're wrong on this one. 18-12/12-8 and we're a lock even with a loss in the tourney. 18-12 means at least one more Q1 win - no way we're not in with that resume.
You've changed your mind? If I recall correctly, we were in agreement the other day that 18-12/12-8 was a lock for RU and now you're saying 60/40? Or am I misremembering?
18-13 with our schedule we are not a lock. You have to circle back and look at OOC SOS.
You pick.
my point is losing to Lafayette and beating Purdue should be the same as beating Lafayette and losing to Purdue
No, I don't. I'm normally the math guy and I'm telling you the math simply doesn't work here. This one is going to be decided by humans who will look at our incredible record in Q1 games and those games will get us in if we win 2 more in the regular season, which will include another Q1 win. Extreme outliers break systems that still rely on human created assumptions, which are simply flawed in outlier situations like this.
Because it’s never worked this way in the history of tournament selection. At the end of the day, it’s always been about - who did you beat? As long as you don’t accumulate too many losses (especially really bad ones) along the way.
Just to play a little devil’s advocate to demonstrate - I’ll trade you the @ Wisconsin and Purdue wins back for Michigan and Iowa instead. Let’s keep the DePaul loss too instead of taking the Illinois loss at home.
That would put Rutgers at 8-7 in conference - again - same 16-9 record - with wins @ Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan State. No Q4 losses. The home loss to Maryland would be the only Q3 loss. We’d pick up an additional road win at UMass. This body of work would be close to lock status with a PSU win and one more.
It's because the system would be putting more emphasis on who you lose to instead of who you beat. In my opinion the latter is more important. Emphasis in sports is on who wins not who loses.
Bengals went to the Super Bowl because they beat the teams they HAD to beat. Nobody cares that they lost to two terrible teams:the Jets and Bears.
This is the essence of my OP in another thread regarding a new way to calculate NET scores based solely on wins.
In NFL it is just a record. That is my point. A record SOS adjusted should be compared to another here.
This. At the end of the day, who you beat matters because it demonstrates whether you can compete with the best. Who you lose to becomes important to justify a high loss count. With the Lafayette loss, we were never going to have a shot with 15 losses. 14 doubtful too. 13 moves into the territory of acceptable.
Who you beat >>> who you lost to
The NCAA tournament is filled with Q1 teams. There are no Lafayettes.
Show me you can beat the best teams if you want an NCAA at large bid when it comes to the bubble
The NCAA tournament is filled with Q1 teams. There are no Lafayettes.
Show me you can beat the best teams if you want an NCAA at large bid when it comes to the bubble
I still say our resume is such an outlier it leaves so much room for your personal bias vs more normal resumes they have seen over and over and ate more easily compared to the rest of the field
The Q1 wins will be dwarfing the rest of the bubble if it comes down to it and give us the nod
The Q1 wins will be dwarfing the rest of the bubble if it comes down to it and give us the nod
Id like that big 10 tourney win to be safe. If the wins are only PSU and at Indiana and then we bow out with a bad loss to someone we are 18-13..again 60/40
Wouldn't it be nice to win the next three so everyone could relax? Although there would still be SOMEONE saying we would be out if we lost the final three (counting the tournament game).
Bracketmatrix has been updated, we're now in 62 of 119 brackets, averaging an 11 seed.
If you just look at the brackets that were updated today, we're in 45 of 68, again averaging an 11 seed.
If you just look at the brackets that were updated today, we're in 45 of 68, again averaging an 11 seed.
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We'd all like as many wins as possible, but I just can't imagine 12-8 in the regular season with 7 Q1 wins (Indiana on the road would be Q1) not being in the tourney. Hopefully we get 5-6 more wins and a 5/6 seed...
I'm still looking for a share of the B1G title. Not greedy, happy to share.
I disagree... Beating the good teams should count more than losing to the bad ones.
Take a team that plays Lafayette level teams 20 times and beats them 20/20 vs a team that ours or even one that goes 500 against the big ten, who are you wagering on in a head to head match up?
How far away are we from Iowa and MSU leaving Q1?
both schedules are tough the rest of the way.
both schedules are tough the rest of the way.
We also have Michigan hovering at 31 though and beating us would give them a boost in the scenerio described.
Our actual results scream for them to take Geo’s absence from those 5 games (not the last 8 minutes of Lafayette - the other games he missed completely) into consideration. Nobody could really say at this point - we surely would’ve lost Illinois and SHU anyway. And then there was UMass. Removing Geo’s 34-35 minutes from the rotation is a very big deal on both sides. The drop off in perimeter subs is massive.
One more thing: I would hope that the Committee would take into consideration the fact that RU is the first unranked school to beat 4 straight top 25 foes, ever, in the history of the entire planet! And they were really all top 16 - and we won 2 of those games quite decisively, with a third on the road, going away. They also know that keeping out a 12-8 RU would unleash a firestorm of criticism of the process and I don't think they want that - plus, c'mon, the eye test just matters and I would think humans in a room wouldn't mind sending a message that sometimes we need humans in a room deciding things, not computers running flawed algorithms that incorporate flawed assumptions made by humans.
Reposting from Page 10 for today:
Bubble Chaos Rooting Guide
If you need a breather you better take it tonight, with only one bubble-adjacent game and even then it's not a big one. Saturday's gonna be a whopper. I've sorted by start time so you can follow along all day.
(FRIDAY) Richmond (36%) at VCU- The Rams are still hanging onto the very fringes of the bubble, appearing on 11/115 brackets as of Wednesday. They have a potential argument as an injury special case, with PG Ace Baldwin hurt for four of their losses. They have some nice road wins and if they can pump up their Q2 win total over these next four games they'll have a shot.
(12:00) TCU at Baylor (88%) - We start with an easy (to explain) one on Saturday. A massive road win at Baylor doesn't lock TCU up but it'd be quite the feather in their cap. No feathers!
(1:00) Dayton at St. Joseph's (32%) - It surprises to me to see Dayton on as many brackets as they are (15 as of Wednesday). The good news for Rutgers fans is that Dayton's start to the season was even worse than RU's. The Flyers have an astonishing three Q4 losses, so if it came down to Rutgers vs. Dayton for a bid then the Scarlet Knights' loss to Lafayette would not be a big data point (as opposed to if it's Rutgers vs. some team with zero Q4 losses). Dayton's been blowing teams out and their upcoming stretch of @ St. Joe's, vs. UMass, @ La Salle isn't terribly difficult. But it would be nice if one of those three teams was able to throw the brakes on the Flyers' ascent.
(1:00) Notre Dame at Wake Forest - Take your pick. Notre Dame a projected 11 seed, Wake Forest a projected 10. Losing this game isn't going to be the reason either team misses the tournament, they'd also have to lose one (or two) to someone they're not supposed to after this. Wake Forest's rated higher in the NET but their resume is easier to punch holes in. Notre Dame owns a win over Kentucky which is massive. Wake Forest's only win over a tournament team right now is @ UNC and as we'll get to they might not be a projected tournament team by the time the day is through. If Wake Forest loses at home to Notre Dame and then drops one at Clemson or (especially) at home to Louisville or NC State, watch out. So I guess I've talked myself into rooting for Notre Dame here, but it's pretty low stakes so I'm not gonna assign the percentage so it stays out of my expected wins calculation.
(2:00) Oklahoma at Iowa State (58%) - This is a juicy one where a case can be made to root for Oklahoma, but the Cyclones have a decidedly better resume. Oklahoma is probably the better team (KenPom has them 12 spots higher) but heartbreaking 2-point losses to Kansas and Texas in their last two games dropped them to 14-12 and into the danger zone. Their final three are winnable by Big 12 standards (OkSt, WVU, KSU, two of those at home) but they've got @ Iowa State and @ Texas Tech to deal with first. It's likely they need to split those road games.
(2:00) Auburn (69%) at Florida - The Gators 1-point loss to A&M knocked them out of the field, but they have a chance to get a premier win and claw their way back. They can afford at most one more loss (as long it's to Auburn or Kentucky) so this won't be their last appearance in these rundowns, but man oh man it's gonna be a tough road for them if they can't get this one.
(2:00) Kansas State at Oklahoma State (63%) - Gonna be a broken record on this, but with Oklahoma State ineligible for the tournament we want them to beat as many Big 12 bubble teams as possible. They have games left with Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Iowa State. Everyone on the bubble is a HUGE Oklahoma State fan down the stretch. Kansas State has won four of five but they're playing from behind compared to the rest of the Big 12 because they didn't do anything in the non-conference. It's still too early to cross anyone in this conference out even with a loss but with a road trip to Lawrence looming, K-State needs this one. They're currently pretty far out of the field (10th out as of Wednesday), this would be a bad one to lose.
(2:30) Iowa at Ohio State (64%) - I've mentioned this in various posts but Iowa's resume is starting to get some hard second looks. They have a shiny NET number so for now none of the big mainstream bracket guys will raise the issue, but Iowa is 0-6 in Q1 games and Michigan is knocking on the door of making that 0-7 (Wolverines are 31, need to be top 30). If North Carolina is on the stone bubble with their resume (0-7, 4-0, 7-1, 7-0 across the four quadrants) then I don't understand why Iowa is so safely in with theirs (0-6, 5-2, 4-0, 8-0) when the difference is one Q3 loss vs. two Q2 losses. Now, Iowa has many many more chances at improving their Q1 record than UNC. This game and home for Michigan State are their next two and they're both Q1. If they drop these and Michigan climbs into the top 30 we could be talking about an 0-9 Q1 record.
(3:30) Saint Louis (43%) at Davidson - A two-bid A-10 is still in play, but Davidson is by far the best candidate to have an at-large case. Maybe, maybe Davidson could stomach a loss here and stay above the cut line but their win total is wildly inflated with 16 Q3/Q4 games. Good on them for going 16-0 in those matchups, but a Q2 loss here drops them to 2-4 in such games. Of note, SLU is rated higher in KenPom but they'd need to win out to get in the at-large conversation again. Getting swept last weekend by the Bonnies hurt them a lot.
(4:00) North Carolina at Virginia Tech (68%) - The Tar Heels blasted themselves in the foot with a shotgun on Wednesday, and BracketMatrix hasn't yet updated to include their Q3 home loss. If they're still in the field then it's Last 4 In at the moment. They badly need to get on the Q1 ledger (0-7 right now) and this is their best chance. At Duke in Coach K's last home game? Yeah, that's not happening. So they'd better get it done here, or pray Syracuse climbs into the top 75. On the other side Virginia Tech has won six straight to give their fans a faint glimmer of hope. For bubble purposes, if they somehow do get in it's likely to come at the expense of UNC or Miami. If they win here, for instance, the ACC would be down to four projected bids when everyone updates -- UNC and VT would both likely be out and need to play their way in. So right now that's the best outcome for the rest of the bubble.
(4:00) North Texas at UAB - I don't think either team can lose this game and still have an at-large case. I don't even know which team the CUSA offices would be rooting for to maximize their shot at 2 bids this year. Just listing it here because it does involve two teams right in the mix and should be a great under-the-radar game.
(5:00) Virginia (35%) at Miami FL - Close to a take-your-pick special. If Miami wins, Virginia is totally done even if they get the season sweep of Duke. But I'm going to root for the Cavs here to put a dent on Miami's resume. Of all the ACC bubble teams, Miami has the toughest road left (not saying much considering that conference is garbage). But they have to go at Pittsburgh (ask UNC how the Panthers are playing lately), home for Virginia Tech (still top 30 in KenPom), and at Syracuse. So the best outcome is for Virginia to win here and then lose to Duke on Wednesday, and then to root against Miami in their remaining games.
(6:00) Utah State (33%) at Boise State - Boise State is currently very safely in the field but the back end of their schedule is sneakily tricky. They can absorb a few losses but can they get in losing 4 of 5? It's quite unlikely that they DO lose 4 of 5, but the first step to losing 4 is losing 1 so let's go. Utah State was rated in the 30s by the computers a week and a half ago but they're down to #52 in KenPom and have no viable at-large path left.
(6:00) Drake (21%) at Loyola Chicago - Loyola is currently on the 9 line and is the only shot at a 2-bid MVC. Ideally they just win the conference tournament, but if they can take a Q2 loss here then the at-large picture is worth monitoring for them.
(8:00) Kansas (71%) at West Virginia - The Mountaineers desperately need a big win like this to reverse their slide. They've lost 9 of their last 10 and have fallen far from the pack. But... all six of their remaining games are Q1 so they have a chance to salvage what's currently a 2-10 Q1 record. A loss to Kansas doesn't kill them for good but it'd be time to call the ambulance.
(10:00) Oregon at Arizona (94%) - Please, Wildcats, do not give this Oregon team a lifeline.
(10:00) BYU at St. Mary's (73%) - BYU is right on the razor edge of the bubble. Lunardi has him as his last team in. A win over SMC would be massive for them, making them a near-lock (as long as they don't fumble the ball against LMU and Pepperdine to close the year). There's no shame in dropping a Q1 road game like this, but as I mentioned in the recap I like San Francisco's resume more than BYU's (and San Francisco's NET is higher). If they lose this, they'll be sweating on Selection Sunday unless they do something big in the WCC tournament. SMC is safely in, so there's nothing to be gained by them losing. Coming off games with Gonzaga and San Francisco (the latter of which likely sealed their bid), and with Gonzaga looming again next Saturday, there should be a big motivation edge in favor of BYU.
(10:00) San Diego State at Fresno State (55%) - This is a big big one to end the night on. Fresno is a good team with almost no path to the tournament, so that's exactly who we want a team currently projected at Last 4 In to be facing. When the margins are that thin, any loss (even a Q1 road loss, as this would be) is a welcome sight. SDSU would get penalized more for losing this than we would for losing at Purdue, for instance.
EXPECTED WINS: 9.03 in 17 games. Can't complain with 9-8. We're happy with 10-7 or better, or if it's the right 9-8 (or even 8-9). It's really bad if Oregon or TCU gets a top 5 road win. It's bad if BYU, West Virginia or Iowa gets a big ranked win. We'd really like San Diego State, BYU, and North Carolina to lose as they're all in the fielld but closest to the cut line at the moment. Those are the biggest ones I think.
On the fringes... not included in the calculation above:
DePaul (17%) at Seton Hall - SHU has the respect of being above the bubble by enough to not get included. A home loss here though and welcome to the main show. That'd drop them to 6-9 in the Big East. I suspect they'll win and be fine, though.
Georgia Tech (36%) at Pittsburgh - If possible, we'd like the Panthers to move back to Q4 so that if it came down to Rutgers vs. UNC for a bid each team would have a Q4 loss (nevermind that losing to Lafayette remains way worse).
Florida State (8%) at Duke - FSU has no path to the tournament, so all a win does is weaken Duke and the ACC as a whole.
Murray State at Tennessee Martin (6%) - As you can see we're really getting to the dregs. Murray State's an at large team as long as they don't lose one of these Q4 games, and even then they might be.
Duquesne (9%) at St. Bonaventure - The Bonnies probably don't get there even if they win out all the way to A-10 title game before losing, but why risk it?
Air Force (6%) at Wyoming - Not happening.
SIU Edwardsville (3%) at Belmont - DEFINITELY not happening.
Bubble Chaos Rooting Guide
If you need a breather you better take it tonight, with only one bubble-adjacent game and even then it's not a big one. Saturday's gonna be a whopper. I've sorted by start time so you can follow along all day.
(FRIDAY) Richmond (36%) at VCU- The Rams are still hanging onto the very fringes of the bubble, appearing on 11/115 brackets as of Wednesday. They have a potential argument as an injury special case, with PG Ace Baldwin hurt for four of their losses. They have some nice road wins and if they can pump up their Q2 win total over these next four games they'll have a shot.
(12:00) TCU at Baylor (88%) - We start with an easy (to explain) one on Saturday. A massive road win at Baylor doesn't lock TCU up but it'd be quite the feather in their cap. No feathers!
(1:00) Dayton at St. Joseph's (32%) - It surprises to me to see Dayton on as many brackets as they are (15 as of Wednesday). The good news for Rutgers fans is that Dayton's start to the season was even worse than RU's. The Flyers have an astonishing three Q4 losses, so if it came down to Rutgers vs. Dayton for a bid then the Scarlet Knights' loss to Lafayette would not be a big data point (as opposed to if it's Rutgers vs. some team with zero Q4 losses). Dayton's been blowing teams out and their upcoming stretch of @ St. Joe's, vs. UMass, @ La Salle isn't terribly difficult. But it would be nice if one of those three teams was able to throw the brakes on the Flyers' ascent.
(1:00) Notre Dame at Wake Forest - Take your pick. Notre Dame a projected 11 seed, Wake Forest a projected 10. Losing this game isn't going to be the reason either team misses the tournament, they'd also have to lose one (or two) to someone they're not supposed to after this. Wake Forest's rated higher in the NET but their resume is easier to punch holes in. Notre Dame owns a win over Kentucky which is massive. Wake Forest's only win over a tournament team right now is @ UNC and as we'll get to they might not be a projected tournament team by the time the day is through. If Wake Forest loses at home to Notre Dame and then drops one at Clemson or (especially) at home to Louisville or NC State, watch out. So I guess I've talked myself into rooting for Notre Dame here, but it's pretty low stakes so I'm not gonna assign the percentage so it stays out of my expected wins calculation.
(2:00) Oklahoma at Iowa State (58%) - This is a juicy one where a case can be made to root for Oklahoma, but the Cyclones have a decidedly better resume. Oklahoma is probably the better team (KenPom has them 12 spots higher) but heartbreaking 2-point losses to Kansas and Texas in their last two games dropped them to 14-12 and into the danger zone. Their final three are winnable by Big 12 standards (OkSt, WVU, KSU, two of those at home) but they've got @ Iowa State and @ Texas Tech to deal with first. It's likely they need to split those road games.
(2:00) Auburn (69%) at Florida - The Gators 1-point loss to A&M knocked them out of the field, but they have a chance to get a premier win and claw their way back. They can afford at most one more loss (as long it's to Auburn or Kentucky) so this won't be their last appearance in these rundowns, but man oh man it's gonna be a tough road for them if they can't get this one.
(2:00) Kansas State at Oklahoma State (63%) - Gonna be a broken record on this, but with Oklahoma State ineligible for the tournament we want them to beat as many Big 12 bubble teams as possible. They have games left with Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Iowa State. Everyone on the bubble is a HUGE Oklahoma State fan down the stretch. Kansas State has won four of five but they're playing from behind compared to the rest of the Big 12 because they didn't do anything in the non-conference. It's still too early to cross anyone in this conference out even with a loss but with a road trip to Lawrence looming, K-State needs this one. They're currently pretty far out of the field (10th out as of Wednesday), this would be a bad one to lose.
(2:30) Iowa at Ohio State (64%) - I've mentioned this in various posts but Iowa's resume is starting to get some hard second looks. They have a shiny NET number so for now none of the big mainstream bracket guys will raise the issue, but Iowa is 0-6 in Q1 games and Michigan is knocking on the door of making that 0-7 (Wolverines are 31, need to be top 30). If North Carolina is on the stone bubble with their resume (0-7, 4-0, 7-1, 7-0 across the four quadrants) then I don't understand why Iowa is so safely in with theirs (0-6, 5-2, 4-0, 8-0) when the difference is one Q3 loss vs. two Q2 losses. Now, Iowa has many many more chances at improving their Q1 record than UNC. This game and home for Michigan State are their next two and they're both Q1. If they drop these and Michigan climbs into the top 30 we could be talking about an 0-9 Q1 record.
(3:30) Saint Louis (43%) at Davidson - A two-bid A-10 is still in play, but Davidson is by far the best candidate to have an at-large case. Maybe, maybe Davidson could stomach a loss here and stay above the cut line but their win total is wildly inflated with 16 Q3/Q4 games. Good on them for going 16-0 in those matchups, but a Q2 loss here drops them to 2-4 in such games. Of note, SLU is rated higher in KenPom but they'd need to win out to get in the at-large conversation again. Getting swept last weekend by the Bonnies hurt them a lot.
(4:00) North Carolina at Virginia Tech (68%) - The Tar Heels blasted themselves in the foot with a shotgun on Wednesday, and BracketMatrix hasn't yet updated to include their Q3 home loss. If they're still in the field then it's Last 4 In at the moment. They badly need to get on the Q1 ledger (0-7 right now) and this is their best chance. At Duke in Coach K's last home game? Yeah, that's not happening. So they'd better get it done here, or pray Syracuse climbs into the top 75. On the other side Virginia Tech has won six straight to give their fans a faint glimmer of hope. For bubble purposes, if they somehow do get in it's likely to come at the expense of UNC or Miami. If they win here, for instance, the ACC would be down to four projected bids when everyone updates -- UNC and VT would both likely be out and need to play their way in. So right now that's the best outcome for the rest of the bubble.
(4:00) North Texas at UAB - I don't think either team can lose this game and still have an at-large case. I don't even know which team the CUSA offices would be rooting for to maximize their shot at 2 bids this year. Just listing it here because it does involve two teams right in the mix and should be a great under-the-radar game.
(5:00) Virginia (35%) at Miami FL - Close to a take-your-pick special. If Miami wins, Virginia is totally done even if they get the season sweep of Duke. But I'm going to root for the Cavs here to put a dent on Miami's resume. Of all the ACC bubble teams, Miami has the toughest road left (not saying much considering that conference is garbage). But they have to go at Pittsburgh (ask UNC how the Panthers are playing lately), home for Virginia Tech (still top 30 in KenPom), and at Syracuse. So the best outcome is for Virginia to win here and then lose to Duke on Wednesday, and then to root against Miami in their remaining games.
(6:00) Utah State (33%) at Boise State - Boise State is currently very safely in the field but the back end of their schedule is sneakily tricky. They can absorb a few losses but can they get in losing 4 of 5? It's quite unlikely that they DO lose 4 of 5, but the first step to losing 4 is losing 1 so let's go. Utah State was rated in the 30s by the computers a week and a half ago but they're down to #52 in KenPom and have no viable at-large path left.
(6:00) Drake (21%) at Loyola Chicago - Loyola is currently on the 9 line and is the only shot at a 2-bid MVC. Ideally they just win the conference tournament, but if they can take a Q2 loss here then the at-large picture is worth monitoring for them.
(8:00) Kansas (71%) at West Virginia - The Mountaineers desperately need a big win like this to reverse their slide. They've lost 9 of their last 10 and have fallen far from the pack. But... all six of their remaining games are Q1 so they have a chance to salvage what's currently a 2-10 Q1 record. A loss to Kansas doesn't kill them for good but it'd be time to call the ambulance.
(10:00) Oregon at Arizona (94%) - Please, Wildcats, do not give this Oregon team a lifeline.
(10:00) BYU at St. Mary's (73%) - BYU is right on the razor edge of the bubble. Lunardi has him as his last team in. A win over SMC would be massive for them, making them a near-lock (as long as they don't fumble the ball against LMU and Pepperdine to close the year). There's no shame in dropping a Q1 road game like this, but as I mentioned in the recap I like San Francisco's resume more than BYU's (and San Francisco's NET is higher). If they lose this, they'll be sweating on Selection Sunday unless they do something big in the WCC tournament. SMC is safely in, so there's nothing to be gained by them losing. Coming off games with Gonzaga and San Francisco (the latter of which likely sealed their bid), and with Gonzaga looming again next Saturday, there should be a big motivation edge in favor of BYU.
(10:00) San Diego State at Fresno State (55%) - This is a big big one to end the night on. Fresno is a good team with almost no path to the tournament, so that's exactly who we want a team currently projected at Last 4 In to be facing. When the margins are that thin, any loss (even a Q1 road loss, as this would be) is a welcome sight. SDSU would get penalized more for losing this than we would for losing at Purdue, for instance.
EXPECTED WINS: 9.03 in 17 games. Can't complain with 9-8. We're happy with 10-7 or better, or if it's the right 9-8 (or even 8-9). It's really bad if Oregon or TCU gets a top 5 road win. It's bad if BYU, West Virginia or Iowa gets a big ranked win. We'd really like San Diego State, BYU, and North Carolina to lose as they're all in the fielld but closest to the cut line at the moment. Those are the biggest ones I think.
On the fringes... not included in the calculation above:
DePaul (17%) at Seton Hall - SHU has the respect of being above the bubble by enough to not get included. A home loss here though and welcome to the main show. That'd drop them to 6-9 in the Big East. I suspect they'll win and be fine, though.
Georgia Tech (36%) at Pittsburgh - If possible, we'd like the Panthers to move back to Q4 so that if it came down to Rutgers vs. UNC for a bid each team would have a Q4 loss (nevermind that losing to Lafayette remains way worse).
Florida State (8%) at Duke - FSU has no path to the tournament, so all a win does is weaken Duke and the ACC as a whole.
Murray State at Tennessee Martin (6%) - As you can see we're really getting to the dregs. Murray State's an at large team as long as they don't lose one of these Q4 games, and even then they might be.
Duquesne (9%) at St. Bonaventure - The Bonnies probably don't get there even if they win out all the way to A-10 title game before losing, but why risk it?
Air Force (6%) at Wyoming - Not happening.
SIU Edwardsville (3%) at Belmont - DEFINITELY not happening.
Ohio St(16-6) is one of the top 5seeds but only Q1 4-5 0.444, Q2 4-1, Q1/2/3 12 wins. Wisconsin Q1 8-4, Q1/2 12-5 ahead of 8-5, Alabama(17-9) Q1 7-5, Q2 12-7, all 26 games Q1/2/3, Texas Tech Q1 6-6, Q2 5-0, 11-6 vs 8-6, UCLA only 3-3 Q1, Q2 5-2, 8-5 vs 8-6, and Q1/2/3 15 wins vs 12 wins, just feels ahead.
*Deep diving more, Texas Tech has no Q3s games and 9 Q4 wins and 2-5 Road. Xavier could be in the 16, Q1 5-6, Q2 4-1, win over Ohio St, and 13 Q1/2/3, road 4-3, but has a Q3 loss. I guess Providence could be a 3 seed,
Providence, they lost their 3rd recently, KP is 45, analytics don't love them. They have the Q1/2/3 numbers, Road 6-1, reads 3seed, 4 seed but something feels off. They would be a team that gets a 3 or 4 and gets upset by a strong 13,14 seed.
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they don't have an official mechanism but it is what BAC referred to as the "eye" test.
Terrible losses are always going to be terrible losses, but it's much better to have them in Nov/Dec than Feb/March.
has us ahead of Iowa Indiana Michigan which makes sense to me.
Yep good to see Dave very close to my thinking..rutgers 11th team in right now
Final prediction
1 line Gonzaga Arizona Auburn Kansas
2 line Baylor Kentucky Purdue Tennessee
3 line Wisconsin Duke Villanova Providence
4 line Texas Tech LSU UCLA Illinois
and no not in order or maybe it is, who knows?
It does make for some good matchups if teams are in brackets.
1 line Gonzaga Arizona Auburn Kansas
2 line Baylor Kentucky Purdue Tennessee
3 line Wisconsin Duke Villanova Providence
4 line Texas Tech LSU UCLA Illinois
and no not in order or maybe it is, who knows?
It does make for some good matchups if teams are in brackets.
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