Welcome to the 4th and final week of Bacatology. Championship week is already underway and several schools have already punched their dance ticket. Comments and questions are always welcome. Tips are mandatory! Bare with any small errors or misspellings😉
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 27 at large locks leaving 9 available spots in the field. I am projecting 21 schools competing for those 9 open spots.
1 SEEDS
- GONZAGA*
- ARIZONA*
- BAYLOR
- KANSAS*
2 SEEDS
- AUBURN*
- KENTUCKY
- DUKE*
- VILLANOVA
3 SEEDS
- PURDUE
- TENNESSEE
- WISCONSIN
- TEXAS TECH
4 SEEDS
- ILLINOIS*
- PROVIDENCE*
- UCLA
- CONNECTICUT
5 SEEDS
- ARKANSAS
- TEXAS
- LSU
- ALABAMA
6 SEEDS
- HOUSTON*
- IOWA
- OHIO STATE
- SAINT MARY'S
7 SEEDS
- COLORADO STATE
- MICHIGAN STATE
- MARQUETTE
- MURRAY STATE
8 SEEDS
- BOISE STATE
- SETON HALL
- USC
- IOWA STATE
9 SEEDS
- TCU
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- NORTH CAROLINA
- SAN FRANCISCO
10 SEEDS
- CREIGHTON
- LOYOLA CHICAGO*
(47) DAVIDSON* 24-5: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 3-2, SOS: 136/229
Davidson is currently the projected AQ from the Atlantic 10. The Wildcats dropped a close one at Dayton over the weekend. Only their 5th loss of the season, no real harm in that the Wildcats are still a very viable and likely at large selection from the A10. Light on quality wins the Alabama win on a neutral courts stands out and do have splits with bubble VCU in league play and a win over St Bonnies. Note that two of the losses to like NCAA schools San Fran and New Mexico State. Only one Q3 loss to URI. Yes the fact that 19 of 24 wins are to Q3/4 but the A10 seems to always get that 2nd bid even if undeserved. Cats resume better than the other 2 A10 bubbles if it comes down to that. Davidson though needs to at least make the semis that means avoid a bad loss to the Geo Mason/Fordham winner. Matched with St Bonnies/St Louis in the semis
(31) MICHIGAN 17-13: Q1: 5-9, Q2: 3-3, R/N: 6-8, SOS: 9/26
Wolverines got a huge win at Ohio State yesterday to push that winning percentage up. That is the main issue they have been facing for the past few weeks. Making sure to get 3 to 4 games above 500 as traditionally schools falling below that simply do not get selected for at large bids. More than enough stuff on the resume even before their 5th Quad 1 win yesterday. Wins over Purdue, at Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers and the nifty win over San Diego State. SOS is outstanding on both fronts. They already have a win over bubble Indiana and now face the Hoosiers in their first Big 10 tourney game. A win there and they are in no question. A loss will cause some pause because at 17-14, its back to being just 3 games over 500 and its likely a trip to the first four in the best case scenerio.
11 SEEDS
(35) MEMPHIS 19-9: Q1: 4-3, Q2: 3-4, Q3: 7-2, SOS: 84/71
Tigers completed a season sweep of AAC AQ Houston in rousing fashion yesterday that all which greatly improved their dance chances. It would do them well to avoid a bad loss to UCF/USF in the AAC tourney but they could lock things up if they make the AAC finals which could include a third matchup with SMU. Tigers lost both previous meetings and there are some sketchy losses to the likes of East Carolina and Georgia in Q3 and Tulane and Ole Miss in Q4. Still the sweep over Houston who is 5 in the NET sort of negates the bad. Metrics solid. They have that win non conference over Alabama as well. Committee has always rewarded the AAC with a 2nd or3rd so keep that in mind.
(50) NOTRE DAME 21-9: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 2-2, SOS: 74/27
When 15-5 and a 2 seed in the ACC tourney lands you on the last 8 in line, it speaks to just how far the ACC has fallen in stature. There just are not the opportunities to pick up quality wins in league play and while the Irish have navigated the league better then most unlike some others like UNC and Miami they do not have a win over Duke on the resume. They do have a early season win over Kentucky. Its a big win but just how far will that carry them. Just 2-6 in Q1 and that 2nd is over distant bubble Va Tech. 4-8 combined in Q1/2 is pretty weak for a bubble school. The additional wins over Miami and UNC are good but not enough to move them out of the danger zone. The loss last week to Florida State was just a Q2 but its a worse loss than that for a school that already has a bad loss to BC. A plus they do have over most of the schools on the bubble is a better non conference SOS which does tend to impress the committee. Irish get winner of Clemson/NC State-Va Tech in their ACC quarter final game. While they could sustain a loss there as far as remaining in the field, that could put them on the dangerous last 4 in line and vulnerable to bid stealers.
(59) MIAMI 22-9: Q1: 4-1, Q2: 5-5, Q3: 9-3, SOS: 75/142
Hurricanes potentially saved their season with their miracle rally at the Carrier Dome avoiding a bad loss to Syracuse. Alot of slip ups with 3 Q3 losses plus some other sketchy results....2 losses to both UVA and FSU and a loss to UCF is mainly the reason their metrics sag with that 59 NET. Still they have some really good wins here led by the feather in their cap win at Duke. They swept Wake, beat UNC and a nice win over CUSA AQ North Texas gives the Canes 5 wins over tourney teams and the 9-6 Q1/2 mark stands out vs the other ACC bubbles. Seeded 4th in the ACC tourney they will match up with possibly Wake or BC/Pitt. While they should be able to absorb a loss to bubble Wake, not sure they could take a bad loss to a Pitt type.
(76) RUTGERS 18-12: Q1: 6-5, Q2: 3-4, Q3: 4-2, Q4: 5-1, road: 4-9, SOS: 36/293
Scarlet Knights answered the call by winning their bubble match up at Indiana and then holding on and averting a disastrous loss at home to Penn State. The most scandalous resume of all bubble teams and perhaps in history shows 7 wins over schools in the field...8 if you want to count Indiana..that is 8-5 folks, that is extremely good. Wins over the top 3 schools in league..Illinois, Purdue and at Wisconsin highlight the dance card. Yet Rutgers has lost to 7 schools not in the field, that is the most among the bubble schools projected win. The hideous loss to Lafayette is one that continues to stain the resume and pull the NET down. Add in another bad loss to UMass and several losses to Big 10 lessers and you see why this resume presents trouble for the committee to evaluate and to seed. There are other issues here that are negative like the non conference SOS of 293 and not having a quality road mark. Incredibly, RU with is fine 12-8 Big 10 league mark got the tiebreak and is the 4th seed in the Big 10 tourney. For committee purposes none of that is considered, however what is important to note is it means that RU likely do not take a bad loss the rest of the year. Its likely their quarterfinal matchup will be Iowa. Of course a win there and RU is locked and likely avoiding Dayton and the First Four. A loss to me makes no difference. For Rutgers, its comes down to how the committee evaluates Rutgers, wins and losses no longer matter. You either like Rutgers and think they are a NCAA team or you do not. You either value metrics like some numbers nerd or you watch the team play. And yes the committee watches these games rather than just regurgitating stats about how predictive metrics say Rutgers is not a tourney team. Where RU could take its ding is that a loss to Iowa could send them to the first 4. I would find it highly unlikely that a loss to Iowa sends them out of the field given some of the drek around the bubble and lack of quality wins by A10/AAC schools. We will get our answer on how much the NET ranking really matters.
12 SEEDS
(43) NORTH TEXAS* 21-5: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 5-2, Q3: 5-2, SOS: 146/67
North Texas is the projected AQ from the CUSA. The Quad 3 loss to UTEP which is their 2nd joining Buffalo was pretty deadly to their at large chances. Just a win over UAB which split the series with them will not be enough. I suppose if they do get to the CUSA finals and lose to UAB they will be on the board for consideration but its a longshot at this point.
(36) XAVIER 18-12: Q1: 5-9, Q2: 4-2, R/N: 5-7, SOS: 29/142
Musketeers stock continues to fall even as they averted a bad loss to Georgetown over the weekend. They have the 5 quad 1 wins and the solid 9-11 mark vs Q1/2. Wins over UConn, Ohio State, Marquette and Creighton 2x, that is 5 wins vs teams in the field but overall its 5-10. Their profile is taking on alot of losses even if they do not have bad ones. Key for them is to win that first round Big East tourney game vs Butler. Its a basic win and in/lose and out. However unless they pull a win over Providence in the quarters they will probably still be stuck near the last 4 in line which will send them to Dayton.
(48) WYOMING 23-7: Q1: 4-4, Q2: 5-1, SOS: 96/176
Cowboys are another school heading in the wrong direction after each bracket update. 2 losses last week, the loss to San Diego State did not hurt but the one at UNLV did and Wyoming was very fortunate to avert another loss on Saturday surviving Fresno State in overtime. A loss there would have sent them out of the field. Another loss to UNLV in the Mountain West quarters could send them very close to that last in/last out line. Despite the gaudy win total and what appears to be a great 9-6 mark vs Q1/2, they are living off of just two home wins over Boise State and Colorado State. Now those are very fine wins but short of adding another one in the MWC tourney, its not all that strong of resume to present to the resume especially if they do lose to UNLV. Two Q3 losses to Stanford and New Mexico starting to loom large too.
(39) WAKE FOREST 23-8: Q1: 1-4, Q2: 5-3, SOS: 99/338
The Wake profile continues to look worse after each time I scrub the seed list. Some of these numbers are what you would expect from a midpack AAC or A10 school not from the AAC. The win over North Carolina does look better now that Heels have solidified their at large bid but the Deacons only have that win over Notre Dame to add to it. Just 2-5 vs teams in the field that really shows how poor their schedule is. The committee is going to take a look at that 338 non conference SOS and shake their head. Eerily similar to NC State from a few years. back who looked good all year long with its 20 plus win total and got left out. At least there is just one Q3 loss to Louisville so its fairly clean and if stays that way Wake should be able to stay in the field. That means avoiding a bad loss in the ACC tourney to the winner of Pitt/BC. Best thing for them to do would be to win that quarterfinal matchup with bubble Miami to move themselves out of the first four games and flip the Hurricanes in that spot.
(44) INDIANA 18-12: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 3-4, R/N: 3-8, SOS: 45/315
As many times I have tried, I just cannot seem to push the Hoosiers out of my field. The loss at home to Rutgers was the difference from feeling good heading into the Big 10 tourney to now likely needing 2 wins meaning wins over Michigan and top seed Illinois. Its highly likely that a loss to Michigan will end their realistic at large hopes. They gave it a good shot at Purdue but failed and the win over Purdue back in January is the highlight of a resume just needing more oomph. There is that non conference win over Notre Dame but other than just a win over Ohio State. The 6-11 mark vs Q1/2 is traditionally no bueno at this spot on the bubble. Other red flags are the poor road mark and the poor non conference schedule strength. A plus is they have avoided anything bad and yes that Q3 loss to Rutgers isnt a bad loss. Here for now but likely gone by Friday.
13 SEEDS
- CHATTANOOGA*
- TOLEDO*
- IONA*
- NEW MEXICO STATE*
14 SEEDS
- VERMONT*
- PRINCETON*
- MONTANA STATE*
- TOWSON*
15 SEEDS
- COLGATE
- LONGWOOD
- LONG BEACH STATE
- CLEVELAND STATE
16 SEEDS
- JACKSONVILLE*
- GEORGIA STATE*
- NORFOLK STATE*/BRYANT*
- NICHOLLS STATE*/ALCORN STATE*
BUBBLE OUT
(55) BYU 20-10: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 3-3, Q4: 10-1, SOS: 104/66
BYU wes no match for San Francisco in the WCC quarters ending their regular season. That is the worst part for them. Even as they sit as last team out, there a whole bunch of bubble schools and bid stealers waiting to play their way into the field. Their real hope is to try and back into the field which sometimes happens but its not where you want to be. Cougars seemed to limp down the stretch of the WCC taking on really bad Q4 loss to Pacific which might be the difference maker given the net has fallen to 55. Some good wins here over San Diego State, Saint Marys and San Francisco. Unfortunately the Oregon win isnt mattering much now. Its still a solid profile but 10 losses as a 4th school from the WCC is going to work against them given the A10 and AAC look to also add additional teams to the field.
(49 SMU 22-7: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 3-3, Q3: 9-1, Q4: 8-1. SOS: 104/289
Mustangs case rests on sweeping now projected in the field Memphis and beating Houston but overall their resume remains unimpressive. Double digit losses to Oregon, Cincinnati, and Wichita stick out. SMU narrowly avoided bad losses this week to Cincy and Tulsa and do not look to be passing any eye tests right now. There is a Q3 loss to Missouri but a really bad Q4 loss to Loyola Marymount. Their non conference sos raises more concerns. Just because they swept Memphis does not mean they have an edge over the Tigers in the pecking order. Thats not how it works when Memphis has better wins and better profile overall. SMU has a shot to play their way back in the field by getting to the AAC finals which includes beating Memphis a third time but I also wouldnt be surprised if they didnt make it past Wichita/Tulsa in the quarters.
(51) VCU 21-8: Q1: 2-3 Q2: 4-4, SOS: 94/65
Whether the Rams can push themselves in the field as the 2nd from the A10 is going to rest with how far they can go in the A10 tourney. A trip to the finals vs Davidson is probably the path, However I do not see 3 going from the A10 so if their opponent is not Davidson they will need to win that game and get the AQ. If they end up in the semis losing to Dayton just not sure this profile justifies a bid. Metric guys love this team but reality says they have just one win vs a tourney team over Davidson and just two wins over top 75 NET schools. There is a 30 point loss to Dayton, a 20 point loss to St Bonnies and a Q3 loss to Wagner. Yes the committee likes to throw unspectacular profiles like this from the A10 a bone but VCU needs work to do to earn it this year.
(42) OKLAHOMA 17-14: Q1: 3-11, Q2: 6-2, R/N: 6-9, SOS: 6/144
Each season there is a school that becomes a walking zombie and the Sooners fit the bill this year. After early season success, the Sooners went into a deep swoon that sunk their record to 500. Now with 3 straight wins, OU has at least positioned themselves back to where you can can envision a path to landing a NCAA at large bid. As mentioned the big issue is the overall loss total. Right now they are just 9-14 in the first 3 Quads. With 14 losses already next loss is 15, Schools do not get at large bids with 15 losses. OU could but they would have to start by beating Baylor in the Big 12 quarters and then beating Texas Tech in the semis. Getting those 2 Q1 wins would be enough to boost that poor 3-11 Q1 mark and give them 11 Q1/2 overall. Right now the best wins are Texas Tech, Arkansas and Iowa State so adding Baylor and Texas Tech again would more than double their quality wins. Just beating Baylor will not be enough, need them both. Longshot but desperate teams do desperate things.
(54) FLORIDA 19-12: Q1: 2-9, Q2: 4-2, Q4: 7-1, SOS: 43/214
Gators could not beat Kentucky in the regular season finale and now really are up against it. Gators just do not have the wins to get in. Yes there is Auburn and Ohio State are great but they are not backed up by anything else. 2-9 in Q1 is dreadful as is 6-11 vs Q1/2. Losses to bubbles Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Bad losses in Q2 to Ole Miss and Maryland and then a Q4 loss to Texas Southern. Profile is screaming NIT. Their path is beating Texas A&M in first round, knocking off Auburn and then knocking off Arky/LSU in the semis...that would give them 3 more Q1 wins and a trip to the SEC finals and that would be playing their way in. Anything less than that will not work for them.
(52) DAYTON 22-9: Q1: 2-2, Q2: 6-3, Q3: 5-1, Q4: 9-3, SOS: 118/134
That one bad week in November is keeping Dayton out of the field. 3 Quad 4 losses at home to the likes of Lipscomb, UMass Lowell, and Austin Peay did the Flyers resume in early on. Yet an amazing turnaround since and only that awful Q3 loss to La Salle kept them from winning the A10 title. The win over the weekend over AQ Davidson proved that Dayton might even be the favorite heading into the A10 tournament. Whether a trip to the finals can be enough to get them in is a big question. Yes some power conference school can overcome some bad losses but how can a A10 school legitimately overcome 4 bad losses. When push comes to shove I cannot see it. There is a lot of good here. The win over Kansas is worth 3 wins, throw in a 30 point win over VCU and another quality win over Miami. My pick to take the A10 AQ.
(77) VIRGINA 18-12: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 4-1, Q3: 4-4, Q4: 7-1, SOS: 60/130
Since its Duke and everyone else, the Cavs have to at least feel they can make a run at things in the ACC tourney. UVA already has a win over Duke so there's that. What will they need to overcome those 5 bad losses, 4 in Quad 3? Well probably a trip to the finals puts them in range and that means taking care of GaTech/UL, then beating UNC, then beat ND/Va Tech. Not impossible but are the Cavaliers capable of putting things together when they have not all season long. Up and down they have wins over Providence and Miami 2x but losses to James Madison and Navy.
(56) TEXAS A&M 19-11: Q1: 3-8, Q2: 3-1, Q3: 5-2, SOS: 173/42
Aggies still hanging around after reeling off 4 straight none more important than the Q1 win at Alabama. Still going to be a tough slog and those Q3 losses to Missouri and So Carolina might be the difference from them being close to the cut line and where they are here. The Bama win was their 3rd quality win joining Arkansas and Notre Dame. Up to 6-9 vs Q1/2 which is still lacklaster but opportunity awaits in the SEC tourney. Another matchup with Florida who they already beat and then Auburn, then Arky/LSU and all of a sudden they are in the SEC finals and probably dancing. Easier said then done but its always interesting watching a desperate bubble make a run.
(37) VIRGINIA TECH 19-12: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 4-5, Q3: 8-2, SOS: 83/131
Don't let them tell you NET matters because the fact is it does not matter in the case of the Hokies. Despite a NET of 37, Va Tech is just on the fringes of the bubble where a trip to the ACC finals might not even be enough. Currently the biggest wins are Miami and Notre Dame. Wins vs Notre Dame and UNC in the ACC could get them close but we shall see. It certainly would help their woeful Q1 mark of 1-5 , 5-10 in Q1/2. The sos is particularly bad overall which goes to how bad the ACC is. 2 bad Losses to NCState and BC are egregious. Note losses to bubbles Xavier, Dayton, and Memphis that should say it all in a head to head .
(84) SAINT BONAVENTURE 20-8: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 3-3, SOS: 101/92
Bonnies have some nice wins non conference over Marquette and Boise State and also over fellow bubble A10 but at the of the day they are in an impossible spot on the fringes of the bubble. Not the worst numbers for high mid major in the Q1/2 at 6-7. Their resume looks better than VCU its just 30 points lower in the NET and the Bonnies do not have Rutgers wins either. The metrics hate them though, the NET is 84 and there are blowout losses to Dayton, VCU, and Va Tech. The loss to Northern Iowa isnt that bad but it is still a Q3 loss on a profile that needs to hit all check marks. They get St Louis and then Davidson in the A10 so winning those two at least helps their case. How close can they expect to get to the cut line though is another question. Would be better off to just win the whole thing.
(74) OREGON 17-13: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 3-6, Q3: 4-2, R/N: 5-8, SOS: 49/28
What could have been for Oregon is all gone now. After a slow start they seemingly righted the ship with wins at USC and UCLA and when they knocked off the Bruins for a 2nd time, it looked like Oregon was going to be able to shore that resume up by taking care of business down the stretch. They lost a heartbreaker to USC and then got swept by the Washington schools. At this point even getting to the Pac 12 finals, which means beating Colorado and Arizona isnt enough. Maybe for consideration but just too many bad losses and too many losses overall. There is a nice win over bubble SMU here but there was a 32 point loss to BYU.
(75) COLORADO 20-10: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 4-3, Q3: 6-2, SOS: 82/330
Buffaloes are another Pac 12 school with no chance at an large. They are only here because they beat Arizona a few weeks back and have amassed 20 wins largely because of a weak Pac 12 and a pathetic out of conference schedule. They are 1-5 vs teams in the field and I couldnt find a quality non conference win...maybe Montana State.BA
FINAL 4 BYES
MEMPHIS
NOTRE DAME
MIAMI
RUTGERS (last bye)
LAST 4 IN
INDIANA
WAKE FOREST
WYOMING
XAVIER
LAST 4 OUT
BYU
SMU
VCU
OKLAHOMA
NEXT FOUR OUT
FLORIDA
DAYTON
VIRGINIA
TEXAS A&M
ON THE FRINGES
VIRGINIA TECH
SAINT BONAVENTURE
OREGON
COLORADO
Not a fan of #11 Rutgers getting #6 seed St Mary's in the opening round but this is where we are.....winner to face the winner of #3 Texas Tech/#14 Towson
