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BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 3/7......NEW UPDATE 3/12 1PM PAGE 37

You have them mixed up with South Dakota. They were 72 in the NET and moved up to 64 today. You root for them to win to avoid being a bid stealer. Bracketology 101. A long shot yes but possible
His point is if South Dakota State takes a loss it will be a bad loss and kill their at-large chance. There's no chance the Summit sends two teams. South Dakota State has no wins over tournament teams and a Q4 loss to Idaho. The reason Murray State could've stolen a bid from a tiny conference is because they beat a tournament team (Memphis), have no Q4 losses, and have two fewer losses overall than SDSU.
 
I think the bracket on ESPN.com still isn't updated. It's been like this for weeks, his Twitter updates take a day or two to be reflected on ESPN. It's pretty insane actually, they're a a shell of their former selves
 
I think the bracket on ESPN.com still isn't updated. It's been like this for weeks, his Twitter updates take a day or two to be reflected on ESPN. It's pretty insane actually, they're a a shell of their former selves
I take it back, it is updated because it has teams like Northern Kentucky in there. I'm lost too
 
I think the bracket on ESPN.com still isn't updated. It's been like this for weeks, his Twitter updates take a day or two to be reflected on ESPN. It's pretty insane actually, they're a a shell of their former selves
The ESPN bracket says "Updated 3/8 at 7:00 AM"
 
Lunardi normally updates Monday and Friday. My guess is he's only updating automatic qualifier conference tourney winners each day
That would make sense, but his bracket (if it were updated yesterday) still doesn't match the seed list he put out on Twitter yesterday morning.
 
Lunardi normally updates Monday and Friday. My guess is he's only updating automatic qualifier conference tourney winners each day
I guess the point here is he updated his seeds on Twitter yesterday and had us as an 11.

Now today the ESPN website "updated" and we're a first four team again.

Sloppy job by them
 
I don't know if it's a weirder bubble than usual but it sure feels like a weird bubble. Rutgers is obviously a unique situation. Wake Forest is a unique situation. I listened to the CBS podcast about the ACC tournament and you could hear Norlander equivocating in real time as he looked as their resume. The Athletic's bubble watch guy has them as "should be in" (whereas Miami and Notre Dame are under "work to do") while Palm at CBS has Wake Forest out entirely right now.

I did get a kick out of Parrish calling Virginia Tech this year's "computer trickers."
 
I don't know if it's a weirder bubble than usual but it sure feels like a weird bubble. Rutgers is obviously a unique situation. Wake Forest is a unique situation. I listened to the CBS podcast about the ACC tournament and you could hear Norlander equivocating in real time as he looked as their resume. The Athletic's bubble watch guy has them as "should be in" (whereas Miami and Notre Dame are under "work to do") while Palm at CBS has Wake Forest out entirely right now.

I did get a kick out of Parrish calling Virginia Tech this year's "computer trickers."
What’s unique about Wake? Every year there’s a bunch of teams from crap conferences who win a ton of games and beat no one. They’re basically San Francisco
 
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What’s unique about Wake? Every year there’s a bunch of teams from crap conferences who win a ton of games and beat no one. They’re basically San Francisco
I think it’s unique in that the ACC is so down and the bracketologists don’t know what to do.
Don’t think there are truly unstoppable teams either.
 
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His point is if South Dakota State takes a loss it will be a bad loss and kill their at-large chance. There's no chance the Summit sends two teams. South Dakota State has no wins over tournament teams and a Q4 loss to Idaho. The reason Murray State could've stolen a bid from a tiny conference is because they beat a tournament team (Memphis), have no Q4 losses, and have two fewer losses overall than SDSU.
I get that point but the committee will look at a 29-5 team that ran through their conference with an 18-0 record and lose to the second place team who has 24 wins in the championship game . Plus they are projected as a 12 seed not a 13-15 seed. Yes , they are not Murray State but they are closer than one would think after reviewing them. I bet they are discussed.
 
I get that point but the committee will look at a 29-5 team that ran through their conference with an 18-0 record and lose to the second place team who has 24 wins in the championship game . Plus they are projected as a 12 seed not a 13-15 seed. Yes , they are not Murray State but they are closer than one would think after reviewing them. I bet they are discussed.
2015 Murray State went 16-0 in the OVC. Their only losses were to Houston (#214), Xavier (#21), Portland (#134), and Valaparaiso (#64). They lost by a point to Belmont in the OVC tournament. They were not even considered for an at-large selection.

2004 Austin Peay went 16-0 in the OVC but had 8 losses overall (none were bad, but still) so they weren't considered.

The only counter-example I can find is back in 2005 when Pacific went 18-0 in the Big West and lost to Utah State in the conference tournament. Both teams got in... but Utah State was rated #21 in KenPom, so that's nothing like South Dakota State losing to North Dakota State this year.

Most teams that run the table also win the conference tournament. There'd be no precedent (at least not in the last 20 years) for South Dakota State to earn an at large.
 
There would be no justification the committee could make for taking a team 2-4 in Q1/2, without a quad 1 win and the biggest wins were Washington State and SF Austin, plus a Quad 4 loss to Idaho and a 254/109 SOS. 25 of 27 wins to Q3/4. Jackrabbits will win tonight thought the previous 2 games with No Dakota State were just 4 point wins. SDState can legit knock off a 5 seed in the tourney though.

I guess some remote chance they do it, They wouldnt fall below 75 anyhow with a loss...see Towson last night so there really isnt going to be some adavantage to having them lose so RU can move up. RU is a quality win for schools, the committee knows this, the quad system does not change that
 
South Dakota St has 0.000000000% chance if getting in at large.
They lost Q1s @ Alabama by 16, @ Missouri St by 12, Q1 0-2
They won Q2 Neutral vs 58 Washington St, not an NCAA team. Q2 2-0
Won Q2 @ SF Austin NET #111, best Q3 vs 97 Bradley.
Again zero point zero zero % chance if getting an at large.
 
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2015 Murray State went 16-0 in the OVC. Their only losses were to Houston (#214), Xavier (#21), Portland (#134), and Valaparaiso (#64). They lost by a point to Belmont in the OVC tournament. They were not even considered for an at-large selection.

2004 Austin Peay went 16-0 in the OVC but had 8 losses overall (none were bad, but still) so they weren't considered.

The only counter-example I can find is back in 2005 when Pacific went 18-0 in the Big West and lost to Utah State in the conference tournament. Both teams got in... but Utah State was rated #21 in KenPom, so that's nothing like South Dakota State losing to North Dakota State this year.

Most teams that run the table also win the conference tournament. There'd be no precedent (at least not in the last 20 years) for South Dakota State to earn an at large.
Except that Oral Roberts made a run out of the Summit last year and we’re a pretty good team that finished 3rd this year and got beat surprisingly by 20 against North Dakota state. That league’s perception is better than the OVC. You guys are saying zero chance and although I agree it would be highly unlikely , I do believe the committee will discuss South Dakota State if they lose a heartbreaker tonight. Yeah less than 10% chance but doubt it is zero especially since they get votes in the rankings and could be seeded as high as a 12. Murray State was usually a 13,14 or 15. This year Murray state will be a 12 or even higher so there is a mid major person leading the Committee. We can disagree but doubt they will be immediately dismissed.
 
Except that Oral Roberts made a run out of the Summit last year and we’re a pretty good team that finished 3rd this year and got beat surprisingly by 20 against North Dakota state. That league’s perception is better than the OVC. You guys are saying zero chance and although I agree it would be highly unlikely , I do believe the committee will discuss South Dakota State if they lose a heartbreaker tonight. Yeah less than 10% chance but doubt it is zero especially since they get votes in the rankings and could be seeded as high as a 12. Murray State was usually a 13,14 or 15. This year Murray state will be a 12 or even higher so there is a mid major person leading the Committee. We can disagree but doubt they will be immediately dismissed.
Last year's tournament is literally meaningless to the committee. And I would argue the OVC's perception is better because they had three top-125 teams (Murray, Belmont, Morehead). The Summit has just the one.

They're on the 12 line right now in Bracket Matrix but that's without the additional Q3 loss that would have to happen to make put them in the at-large picture. I'm more worried about North Texas and the CUSA, and I'm not even really that worried about that league stealing a bid.
 
Last year's tournament is literally meaningless to the committee. And I would argue the OVC's perception is better because they had three top-125 teams (Murray, Belmont, Morehead). The Summit has just the one.

They're on the 12 line right now in Bracket Matrix but that's without the additional Q3 loss that would have to happen to make put them in the at-large picture. I'm more worried about North Texas and the CUSA, and I'm not even really that worried about that league stealing a bid.
I agree about North Texas but my point is I do not want anyone stealing a bid. So let’s root for South Dakota State and North Texas to win their tourneys and no sleeper out of the Power 6 gets hot and wins 3-4 in a row.
 
There would be no justification the committee could make for taking a team 2-4 in Q1/2, without a quad 1 win and the biggest wins were Washington State and SF Austin, plus a Quad 4 loss to Idaho and a 254/109 SOS. 25 of 27 wins to Q3/4. Jackrabbits will win tonight thought the previous 2 games with No Dakota State were just 4 point wins. SDState can legit knock off a 5 seed in the tourney though.

I guess some remote chance they do it, They wouldnt fall below 75 anyhow with a loss...see Towson last night so there really isnt going to be some adavantage to having them lose so RU can move up. RU is a quality win for schools, the committee knows this, the quad system does not change that
Check out the upward move for SDSU from yesterday. They were 73 before beating the 192 team. I think the would fall considerably with a loss.
 
If South Dakota loses and has a similar NET drop to Towson, they land in the 72-75 range. That by itself might not put us ahead of them, but it puts them in easier striking distance. With a win on Friday (especially if it is over Iowa) and a close lose or better Saturday, it is reasonable we could jump to around 70.

Colorado and Oregon are 74 and 75. If Oregon does not lose to an awful Oregon State team, which would torpedo what is left of their NET, they play in the PAC-12 quarterfinals. Loser of that one should drop below us with a good outing on Friday.

If DePaul beats St John's (net 72) in round 1 tomorrow, that gets us past them.
 
Except that Oral Roberts made a run out of the Summit last year and we’re a pretty good team that finished 3rd this year and got beat surprisingly by 20 against North Dakota state. That league’s perception is better than the OVC. You guys are saying zero chance and although I agree it would be highly unlikely , I do believe the committee will discuss South Dakota State if they lose a heartbreaker tonight. Yeah less than 10% chance but doubt it is zero especially since they get votes in the rankings and could be seeded as high as a 12. Murray State was usually a 13,14 or 15. This year Murray state will be a 12 or even higher so there is a mid major person leading the Committee. We can disagree but doubt they will be immediately dismissed.


the fact is they are a 12 seed but I would never put them higher basically means they are not getting an at large bid. if they were showing up as 10s in some brackets then you can say wait maybe we need to look closer. Remember North Texas probably will not make it either if they dont win the CUSA and they play in a way better conference and have a net 20 spots better
 
Just when I start to think I have an understanding of NET, I see Dayton in the 50's when they have those awful loses on their resume.
 
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So is the fact that Rutgers has such a poor net affect the other BIG1G schools Net ranking especially to the teams we beat?
 
Oregon without their best player for the P12 tournament. That conference makes me a little nervous because with only 3 tournament teams they're guaranteed to have a potential bid thief in the semifinals.

 
Oregon without their best player for the P12 tournament. That conference makes me a little nervous because with only 3 tournament teams they're guaranteed to have a potential bid thief in the semifinals.

Good point but not really concerned. That team will likely be Colorado and thankfully Arizona’s phenomenal and should take care of them after inexplicably losing to them to end the year.

Could see Washington getting past USC, but also beating UCLA and Zona will be a tall task.
 
The BC result over Pitt should get BC near 160. Louisville #138/GA Tech #161 should be interesting, not sure ACC want Louisville above 135 over GA Tech over 160, NC St #148 / Clemson #85 not sure which is better either NC St above 135 or Clemson above 75.

Pac 12 20-21 was Oregon St 12 seed, bid stealer.
18-19 was Oregon 12 seed, bid stealer.
Wouldn't shock me if Arizona St or Washington bid steals this year.
Pac 12 has learned to work the.system, for March Madness money.
 
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Maybe I'm missing something but why does it benefit us to move up to 75 (other than any upward movement is obviously a good thing?)

Not sure us being a Q1 game for other B1G teams helps us?
 
Maybe I'm missing something but why does it benefit us to move up to 75 (other than any upward movement is obviously a good thing?)

Not sure us being a Q1 game for other B1G teams helps us?


the committee isnt looking at Rutgers and saying its bad loss for Indiana or it doesnt help Michgan, they look beyond numbers its all on the team sheet
 
Maybe I'm missing something but why does it benefit us to move up to 75 (other than any upward movement is obviously a good thing?)

Not sure us being a Q1 game for other B1G teams helps us?
I don’t think 75 specifically matters for Rutgers. I just want it to improve. Listening to that CBS BIG tourney preview podcast definitely made me more nervous. Parrish and Norlander started the podcast by saying we’d get in no matter what and changed their position when they looked at our computer numbers. Said the committee would really struggle with it.

There’s no transparency so we don’t know the gap between our NET and any of the teams immediately ahead of us. For all we know Clemson’s win could push us up a spot or two.
 
Couple of ones to watch today:

Nebraska vs. Northwestern to see who faces Iowa.

Boston College vs. Wake Forest would be a really bad loss for the Deacons. But BC is terrible so I don't think that'll happen.

Butler vs. Xavier would be a Q3 loss for Xavier, and this one has a better chance of happening. But Butler is ranked just about equally to BC so (shrug)

Clemson vs. Virginia Tech... Hokies need AT LEAST two wins in the tournament to get onto the fringes of the bubble. They just lost at Clemson this past weekend.

Potential (still longshots for now) bid thieves Oregon, Arizona State, Virginia, St. John's, Washington State are in action.
 
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How many places did Lafayette cost us? There is no way of exactly tracking because it was before the NET was released. 70.2, 84.4, -14.2.

322 St. Francis(NY) won @ 133 St Peters(15-11) 71-69, Dec 8
St Peters 244 to 294(-50), St. Francis 343 to 325, 82.0, 106.6, -24.6

319 C.Michigan won @ 129 Kent St 72-69, Dec 29
C.Mich 341 to 330, Kent St 160 to 218(-58), 88.9, 106.6, -17.7

Kansas City won at home vs Omaha 64-61, OEff 72.5 DEff 87.2 -14.7, Jan 10
KC dropped -18, 201 to 219.

A win over Lafayette is probably the difference between NET #76 and #46-36, the committee probably knows it too.
 
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