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BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 3/7......NEW UPDATE 3/12 1PM PAGE 37

For Michigan to get in will be one of historically worst winning percentages. NET isn’t overcoming it. If they get in, it’s a play in game despite BAC’s protests. I can see a Football game. Michigan v Florida, Michigan v Oklahoma if CBS and NCAA want ratings.
 
Can’t see Xavier in. Miami struggled. ND and Michigan lose and we dropped. Absurd.
 
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I think this has gone from a really soft bubble a few days ago to potentially a bunch of teams
getting screwed big time. There may be lots of ‘Spainin’ to do Sunday night, Lucy.
 
UCLA up 12 nearing halftime. Still got USC-Washington to come but that's looking better than it was earlier.
 
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I think this has gone from a really soft bubble a few days ago to potentially a bunch of teams
getting screwed big time. There may be lots of ‘Spainin’ to do Sunday night, Lucy.
Almost everyone that won today needs to win again tomorrow. Using Lunardi as a baseline, only Indiana went from OUT to IN today (and the team they leapt, SMU, plays tomorrow while Indiana plays Illinois so that can easily flip back)
 
Texas Tech blowing the doors of Iowa State (27-11)... good. They are much more likely to handle Oklahoma tomorrow. Of course we've seen a crazy Big 12 comeback already today.
 
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For Michigan to get in will be one of historically worst winning percentages. NET isn’t overcoming it. If they get in, it’s a play in game despite BAC’s protests. I can see a Football game. Michigan v Florida, Michigan v Oklahoma if CBS and NCAA want ratings.


right now I have Michigan in the play in game
 
Almost everyone that won today needs to win again tomorrow. Using Lunardi as a baseline, only Indiana went from OUT to IN today (and the team they leapt, SMU, plays tomorrow while Indiana plays Illinois so that can easily flip back)


Looking at his newest update, he probably flips us to last 4 in if we lose tomorrow. Palm meanwhile has both Indiana and Michigan out and RU last in, if RU loses he flips one back in and puts us out. Of course its meaningless because all the bracketologists due a deep scrub the last day and make alot of changes
 
Yuck, didn't see Tulsa beat Wichita State. Easy game for SMU tomorrow, though it's all downside (a win doesn't change anything). Key game for them will be the semifinal against Memphis.
 
Looking at his newest update, he probably flips us to last 4 in if we lose tomorrow. Palm meanwhile has both Indiana and Michigan out and RU last in, if RU loses he flips one back in and puts us out. Of course its meaningless because all the bracketologists due a deep scrub the last day and make alot of changes
Agreed... Definitely feels like there is a lot of overreaction to some of these individual results. Need to take a breathe and analyze the resumes in their entirety once the dust settles.

Let's say we lose tomorrow, SMU beats Tulsa but then loses to Memphis. There's no way in hell they should jump us.
 
Yuck, didn't see Tulsa beat Wichita State. Easy game for SMU tomorrow, though it's all downside (a win doesn't change anything). Key game for them will be the semifinal against Memphis.


never know, they beat them 2x, but first win was just by 5. SMU is pretty similar resume and win wise to Wyoming, ND, Wake, Va Tech....but strangely all of the guys who have them in the field now seemingly ignore that they have a quad 4 loss to Loyola Marymount not sure why and they also have a Q3 loss to Missouri
 
reality says you are right yet its all about that pesky net, not really worried about the Lafayette loss actually, its just one loss and other schools have bad losses.....

thing could go either way...we are freaking out over nothing and RU is actually well thought of because its 8-5 vs the field, and RU ends up a 10 seed or the top 11 and the commish says that they discussed Rutgers and they were safely placed in the field based on who they beat

or the NET is used as the excuse to keep RU out as the commish says Rutgers was highly debated but at the end of the day we were troubled by their metrics..blah blah blah
 
For Michigan to get in will be one of historically worst winning percentages. NET isn’t overcoming it. If they get in, it’s a play in game despite BAC’s protests. I can see a Football game. Michigan v Florida, Michigan v Oklahoma if CBS and NCAA want ratings.

No its not about NET, but schedule strength..

Michigan played by far the toughest schedule of anyone close to the bubble.

I’ve followed this closely for years and the one message which has always stuck is the committee rewards teams that schedule tough and punishes teams that don’t.

I think UM will make it because if they don’t, the message is W-L matters (UM has plenty of Q1 wins), which means schedule cream puffs.

I will be very surprised if UM isn’t in.
 
Reminder that the Committee is human and watches games... Sure metrics are important but it's not everything

 
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last year was covid so things were different

history of schools who have received NCAA at large bids without being at least 4 games over .500

’88—LSU 16-13
’90—Kansas St 17-14
’91—Villanova 16-14
’01—Georgia 16-14

The better question is what is the history of teams that finished three games over .500 with a top five SOS that didn’t get in?

Again, I’ll point this out. Michigan would have finished four games over if the Fort Wayne game wasn’t canceled.

I have a hard time the committee ultimately punishes UM because it didn’t reschedule the Fort Wayne game (heck if it matters so much to be four games over, why doesn’t UM just play a buy game on short notice over the weekend?. Someone would take the check).
 
The better question is what is the history of teams that finished three games over .500 with a top five SOS that didn’t get in?

Again, I’ll point this out. Michigan would have finished four games over if the Fort Wayne game wasn’t canceled.

I have a hard time the committee ultimately punishes UM because it didn’t reschedule the Fort Wayne game (heck if it matters so much to be four games over, why doesn’t UM just play a buy game on short notice over the weekend?. Someone would take the check).
There's actually a rule against scheduling a game after a conference tournament. BYU looked into that option after their tournament.
 
Rhode Island gagged it away against Richmond which is good because the Spiders are better and they'll advance to face VCU (also a rivalry game). URI led by 14 at one point. Now down 4 and Richmond ball with about a minute left.
 
I think unless Indiana wins tomorrow (which is doubtful) we are ahead of both of them win or lose
 
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Alright Richmond wins it. Give 'em hell tomorrow, Spiders.

UCLA, TTU, and UNC all up double digits. Hold those leads and give me USC over Washington. I'm going to get some sleep.
 
No its not about NET, but schedule strength..

Michigan played by far the toughest schedule of anyone close to the bubble.

I’ve followed this closely for years and the one message which has always stuck is the committee rewards teams that schedule tough and punishes teams that don’t.

I think UM will make it because if they don’t, the message is W-L matters (UM has plenty of Q1 wins), which means schedule cream puffs.

I will be very surprised if UM isn’t in.

14 losses...only 4 schools in history have got in being less than 4 games above 500 do not count the covid year
 
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