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BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 3/7......NEW UPDATE 3/12 1PM PAGE 37

I guess we should be happy with our season if we lose today. This is so f#cking dumb with the bracketology. The line keeps moving.

F#ck a loss to Lafayette, we are 8-5 versus the projected field, 9-9 in Q1/2 and even better in the "super quad" reviews. Play in one of the top Conf in all of CBB. Have been told for weeks that we pass the eye test. Been told for weeks that no one wants to play us. Why have conf at all then if they are meaningless.

I mean WTF else can be done, besides win.
 
Maybe a threshold? Iowa st is 7-12!!! AND THEYRE AN 8 SEED!!!

We have all lost the plot here.
Don't get hung up on conference record. Their overall record against power conference teams (counting Memphis here) is 11-12. Four of those losses were to Baylor and Kansas who are competing for 1 seeds.
 
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If we lose today, the Lafayette loss doesn't keep us out, it's scheduling 6 Q4 games against dreck and not winning either @ Northwestern or @ Minnesota.

6-5, 3-4, 4-2, 5-1, we win one of those 2 and schedule one Q3 over a Q4.

6-5, 4-3, 5-2, 4-1, Q1/2 10-8, Q123 15-10
We are solidly in as a 8 or 9 seed even with the Lafayette loss.
 
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3/10 update


1 SEEDS
  • GONZAGA*
  • ARIZONA*
  • BAYLOR
  • KANSAS*

2 SEEDS
  • AUBURN*
  • KENTUCKY
  • DUKE*
  • VILLANOVA

3 SEEDS
  • PURDUE
  • TENNESSEE
  • WISCONSIN
  • TEXAS TECH

4 SEEDS
  • ILLINOIS*
  • PROVIDENCE*
  • UCLA
  • CONNECTICUT

5 SEEDS
  • ARKANSAS
  • TEXAS
  • LSU
  • ALABAMA

6 SEEDS
  • HOUSTON*
  • IOWA
  • SAINT MARY'S
  • OHIO STATE

7 SEEDS
  • COLORADO STATE
  • MICHIGAN STATE
  • MARQUETTE
  • MURRAY STATE

8 SEEDS
  • BOISE STATE
  • SETON HALL
  • USC
  • IOWA STATE

9 SEEDS
  • TCU
  • SAN DIEGO STATE
  • NORTH CAROLINA
  • CREIGHTON

10 SEEDS
  • LOYOLA CHICAGO*
  • SAN FRANCISCO
  • DAVIDSON*
  • MICHIGAN

11 SEEDS
  • MEMPHIS
  • NOTRE DAME
  • RUTGERS
  • MIAMI
12 SEEDS
  • NORTH TEXAS*
  • SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
  • WYOMING/VCU
  • XAVIER/INDIANA
13 SEEDS
  • CHATTANOOGA*
  • TOLEDO*
  • NEW MEXICO STATE*
  • VERMONT"
14 SEEDS
  • PRINCETON*
  • MONTANA STATE*
  • COLGATE*
  • LONG BEACH STATE*
15 SEEDS
  • SAINT PETER'S*
  • LONGWOOD*
  • DELAWARE*
  • WRIGHT STATE*

16 SEEDS
  • JACKSONVILLE STATE*
  • GEORGIA STATE*
  • BRYANT*/ALCORN STATE*
  • NORFOLK STATE*/NICHOLLS STATE*


FINAL 4 BYES

MEMPHIS
NOTRE DAME
RUTGERS
MIAMI (last bye)


LAST 4 IN

VCU
INDIANA
XAVIER
WYOMING


LAST 4 OUT

BYU
SMU
WAKE FOREST
OKLAHOMA


NEXT FOUR OUT

FLORIDA
VIRGINIA TECH
VIRGINIA
DAYTON



ON THE FRINGES

TEXAS A&M
OREGON
SAINT BONAVENTURE
COLORADO



So some movements after yesterday's wild day. Wake Forest moves out of the field for now replaced by VCU. Xavier drops but only one spot on the last 4 in line. Virginia Tech takes a a big leap forward on the next four out list. Rutgers moves up a placement on the last byes grouping. Reason being with Wake no projected out of the field, Miami lost two win vs the field and now drops to just 3-2 in that grouping, Adjusted St Mary's and Ohio State along the 6 line to avoid a RU/OSU matchup in first round. Rutgers is projected to play St Mary's at the moment.

Big time bubble games today....

Indiana vs Michigan...enormous bubble game for both schools. Indiana is almost assuredly out with a loss. A win does not lock them in as they may need another one. Michigan losing this game would end their season at 17-14 and thus they become vulnerable just 3 games over .500.

Florida vs Texas A&M....bubble elimination game. Loser totally out. Winner still a shot but probably need a trip to SEC finals

Boston College vs Miami....huge game for Miami. Hurricanes cannot afford a 4th Q3 loss. This is the type of loss that could bounce them out. Their profile got dinged a bit because Wake lost.

Marquette vs Creighton....Bluejays are a lock but even while seeded as a 9, their sagging NET of 66 could be used in seeding so a loss here and movement of those they are ahead could move them closer to the first four games

Oregon vs Colorado....bid stealer elimination game. Neither has at large chances and both would need to win the Pac 12 and steal a bid

UNLV vs Wyoming.....another big game, do Cowboys lock in with a win? not necessarily but if they lose it they easily could find themselves out of the field

Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame....Muddled ACC bubble picture, Va Tech buoyed by a great net is inching closer but needs to keep winning to get in, a win here is probably not enough Irish have some cushion but a loss here could put them in first four and depending on other results there is a small chance they get bounced all together.

Oklahoma vs Baylor....Sooners become a serious threat with a win here. A loss and they are clearly done.

Virginia vs North Carolina.....Virginia longshot hopes rest with making ACC finals so eliminated with a loss. Tar Heels are locked in
Bac, Colorado with 22 wins in PAC a no?
 
I guess we should be happy with our season if we lose today. This is so f#cking dumb with the bracketology. The line keeps moving.

F#ck a loss to Lafayette, we are 8-5 versus the projected field, 9-9 in Q1/2 and even better in the "super quad" reviews. Play in one of the top Conf in all of CBB. Have been told for weeks that we pass the eye test. Been told for weeks that no one wants to play us. Why have conf at all then if they are meaningless.

I mean WTF else can be done, besides win.
If we don't get in, the season is not a success regardless of the methodology used. 68 teams get in and not being one of them will be very tough to rationalize. Let's hope they find a way this afternoon. Going to be very difficult.
 
If we lose today, the Lafayette loss doesn't keep us out, it's scheduling 6 Q4 games against dreck and not winning either @ Northwestern or @ Minnesota.

6-5, 3-4, 4-2, 5-1, we win one of those 2 and schedule one Q3 over a Q4.

6-5, 4-3, 5-2, 4-1, Q1/2 10-8, Q123 15-10
We are solidly in as a 7 or 8 seed even with the Lafayette loss.
Sure - but then, you could also blame it on the Geo injury.

There’s a reason none of our bench players average more than 13 mpg and Geo plays 34 mpg - defense and ball handling. There’s a significant drop off when he’s not playing.
 
Non conference is 1/3 the season. IsU gained 4 wins over teams in in the field while Rutgers was losing to the likes of Lafayette and UMass and De Paul. Lets face it...RU also lost to the likes of Minnesota and Northwestern
 
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Sure - but then, you could also blame it on the Geo injury.

There’s a reason none of our bench players average more than 13 mpg and Geo plays 34 mpg - defense and ball handling. There’s a significant drop off when he’s not playing.

He played most of the Lafayette game and was like 1-7 or 1-8 fg
 
Bracket Dave has Rutgers a 10 seed and insulated as the 9th team from out..wow. not even in the last byes

 
Bracket Dave has Rutgers a 10 seed and insulated as the 9th team from out..wow. not even in the last byes

Is he good historically?
 
He played most of the Lafayette game and was like 1-7 or 1-8 fg
Yes - I get that that’s how the committee will look at it.

With that game - I see it more simply - we played like sh-t. Yet we lost a buzzer beater and the chance of Lafeyette getting that last shot off would’ve been much lower if Geo was on the floor in place of Hyatt or Jones (not sure who was in). PSU called this to light. Unfortunately, our bench defenders stink - and they were worse pre-season.

There is no way in hell UMass hits all those threes to make that comeback with Geo defending the perimeter.
 
I guess we should be happy with our season if we lose today. This is so f#cking dumb with the bracketology. The line keeps moving.

F#ck a loss to Lafayette, we are 8-5 versus the projected field, 9-9 in Q1/2 and even better in the "super quad" reviews. Play in one of the top Conf in all of CBB. Have been told for weeks that we pass the eye test. Been told for weeks that no one wants to play us. Why have conf at all then if they are meaningless.

I mean WTF else can be done, besides win.

I don't see how the committee ignores 8-5 vs the field.
 
Rutgers is in 108 of 133 brackets today. Remember its usually a day behind on results so I see Michigan still in 130 of 133 and Indiana not in the field
 
Yes one of the best.

But so is Brad Wachtel who is factoring in metrics much more

Two camps on bracketology..usually its a blend. The Net isnt the end all be all. Neither is treating RU as not a good win because they are in q3 and treating Vanderbilt as a good win because they are a q1 now
 
Rutgers is in 108 of 133 brackets today. Remember its usually a day behind on results so I see Michigan still in 130 of 133 and Indiana not in the field

Rutgers in my view is a lock
Lose bad today 12 seed
Lose today less than 10 or so an 11 seed
Win today at worse a 10

NET will kill seed
However their Q 1 and 2 record is so good it guarantees a bid
 
Bracket Dave has Rutgers a 10 seed and insulated as the 9th team from out..wow. not even in the last byes

This will change drastically today win or lose
 
Two camps on bracketology..usually its a blend. The Net isnt the end all be all. Neither is treating RU as not a good win because they are in q3 and treating Vanderbilt as a good win because they are a q1 now
Yeah just pointing out that two respected bracketologists are thinking about us very differently. I'll settle in the middle as an 11 seed!
 
This is so f#cking dumb with the bracketology. The line keeps moving.

But that's what bracketology is.... how the line moves day to day. The "if the season ended today" approach isn't really predictive, because the season isn't ending today.... there are games left to be played.

Bracketology is like the score in a game.... it changes minute to minute. It can look bad if one team goes on a run, or look good if you go on a run... but all that really matters is the score at the end, and knowing the score with 1 minute left in a 1-2 possession game (the bubble) isn't a great indicator of what the final score will be.
 
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If the unthinkable were to happen, IU wins today, we lose badly and PSU wins the B1G and steals a bid, are we out in that scenario?
 
Rutgers in my view is a lock
Lose bad today 12 seed
Lose today less than 10 or so an 11 seed
Win today at worse a 10

NET will kill seed
However their Q 1 and 2 record is so good it guarantees a bid
There’s also the other school of thought.
You are going to reward teams that had a very good year, a 5 or 6 seed and your reward is a game against Rutgers. Lots of NET proponents might have second thoughts.
Saw ESPN ranked our strength of schedule as #31.
 
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Rutgers is in 108 of 133 brackets today. Remember its usually a day behind on results so I see Michigan still in 130 of 133 and Indiana not in the field
He did an AM update yesterday - we'll see if we get a refresh before noon today
 
Bracket Dave has Rutgers a 10 seed and insulated as the 9th team from out..wow. not even in the last byes

Bc we've been locked in. All these fringe bubble teams winning, but were still significantly behind us
 
There’s also the other school of thought.
You are going to reward teams that had a very good year, a 5 or 6 seed and your reward is a game against Rutgers. Lots of NET proponents might have second thoughts.
Saw ESPN ranked our strength of schedule as #31.
Whatever higher seed plays us in the tournament is getting screwed big time. No one wants to see us as their matchup when they reveal the bracket
 
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