BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 3/7......NEW UPDATE 3/12 1PM PAGE 37

[bac2therac]

3/11 update

1 SEEDS

• GONZAGA*
• ARIZONA*
• KANSAS*
• AUBURN*

2 SEEDS

• BAYLOR
• KENTUCKY
• DUKE*
• VILLANOVA

3 SEEDS

• PURDUE
• TENNESSEE
• TEXAS TECH
• WISCONSIN

4 SEEDS

• ILLINOIS*
• PROVIDENCE*
• UCLA
• CONNECTICUT

5 SEEDS

• ARKANSAS
• IOWA
• HOUSTON*
• TEXAS

6 SEEDS

• ALABAMA
• COLORADO STATE
• SAINT MARY'S
• OHIO STATE

7 SEEDS

• LSU
• USC
• MICHIGAN STATE
• TCU

8 SEEDS

• MURRAY STATE
• BOISE STATE
• MARQUETTE
• SETON HALL

9 SEEDS

• IOWA STATE
• SAN DIEGO STATE
• NORTH CAROLINA
• CREIGHTON

10 SEEDS

• LOYOLA CHICAGO*
• MEMPHIS
• DAVIDSON*
• RUTGERS

11 SEEDS

• INDIANA
• SAN FRANCISCO
• MIAMI
• WYOMING

12 SEEDS

• NORTH TEXAS*
• SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
• NOTRE DAME/SMU
• XAVIER/MICHIGAN

13 SEEDS

• CHATTANOOGA*
• TOLEDO*
• NEW MEXICO STATE*
• VERMONT"

14 SEEDS

• PRINCETON*
• MONTANA STATE*
• COLGATE*
• LONG BEACH STATE*

15 SEEDS

• SAINT PETER'S*
• LONGWOOD*
• DELAWARE*
• WRIGHT STATE*

16 SEEDS

• JACKSONVILLE STATE*
• GEORGIA STATE*
• BRYANT*/ALCORN STATE*
• NORFOLK STATE*/NICHOLLS STATE*

FINAL 4 BYES

INDIANA
SAN FRANCISCO
MIAMI
WYOMING (last bye)


LAST 4 IN

SMU
MICHIGAN
XAVIER
NOTRE DAME


LAST 4 OUT

VIRGINIA TECH
BYU
OKLAHOMA
WAKE FOREST


NEXT FOUR OUT

VCU
TEXAS A&M
DAYTON
COLORADO



So I basically did a new scrub this morning and big changes. Moving Baylor down to a 2 for now. Other notable changes are Colorado State up to a 6 and TCU up to a 7. SHU pretty much remains locked in that 8/9 seeding. I have moved Rutgers up to the lowest 10....for now. If they lose to Iowa, obviously that will change, if they beat Iowa not sure that RU can move up much without another win. RU is not insulated from the first four at all. Lots of bubble action today. I broke my own rule yesterday putting up a rash update after the noon games. Put VCU in even though I didnt want to and after crunching numbers this morning and comparing resumes to the bubble. Not only have I moved them back out but I also moved them to 5th team out for now. I have moved SMU in the field for now. It is extremely close from that whole last group 4 in to 7th team out Dayton. I cannot remember a year were there are basically 11 schools all within a cat's whisker of each other. Trying to guess which way the committee goes this year will take a yeomans job for sure. Of course some of this will become easier after today given that SMU, Va Tech, OK, VCU, Dayton and A&M play today.

 

[bac2therac]

Oklahoma will move into the field with a win today over Texas Tech

Do not assume Indiana is safe just because they are on the last bye list now

Do not assume RU cannot fall to the first four or even out in the field with some brackets. You will see some weigh RU wins 8-5 vs field which is by far trumping everyone around the bubble vs some will simply be numbers nerds. We have no idea what the committee will do. Only we do know from past history they value quality wins. We also know that its difficult to get into the tourney with bad metrics. However there have not been many schools like RU with bad metrics and great wins. So we are likely an outlier and the committee is not stupid . However we also know that leaving red flags on your resume gives the committee justification to leave you out.

 

[bac2therac]

If the unthinkable were to happen, IU wins today, we lose badly and PSU wins the B1G and steals a bid, are we out in that scenario?

take your pick of Rutgers or Michigan

 

[bac2therac]

Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State playing terrible not helping the cause pointing to quality wins.

they have not been any more terrible than other power 6 ncaa caliber schools.

 

[Big boy stan]

Again, I’ll point this out. Michigan would have finished four games over if the Fort Wayne game wasn’t canceled.

So by this logic, RU would be a NET 30 right now if the Lafayette game had been cancelled. No way you can just make a tourney determination based on an assumption that Michigan wins that anyway.

 

[bac2therac]

Bc we've been locked in. All these fringe bubble teams winning, but were still significantly behind us

with Rutgers its either you value the wins or you value the NET. Its not like beating Iowa improves the resume dramatically, yes its a great quality win but RU is already 8-5 vs the field, if you didnt like them at 8-5 is 9-5 going to make you ignore the NET if you were clinging to it anyway....listen to aholes like Norlander who say they are not even in if they beat Iowa...thats just bullshit talk. The NET probably is going to still be no better than 68/70 with a win over Iowa...those who cling to metrics will still remain negative about RU

 

[bac2therac]

I believe he was coming off a covid/flu thing and that was first game back and was not up to strength-- that what I was told

that was the SHU game. For Lafayette he injured himself with about 8 minutes to play. RU will get no sympathy for that game at home. UMass perhaps

 

[bac2therac]

Palm has Texas A&M as his last team in🤓

 

[kcg88]

Palm has Texas A&M as his last team in🤓

For some reason he's super enamored with Florida (still on his Next Four Out) so I guess he thought A&M's win over them was the best thing since sliced bread.

 

[Zak57]

Palm = 🤡

 

[goru7]

I agree but as a RU fan I am steeling myself for the worst possible outcome.😎

Stop and grow a pair. We are 8-5 against the current field , 6-5 Quad 1 and the top half of Quad 1 and top half of Quad 2. We are like Bracketville Dave and others Lunardi , DeCourcey and our own BAC says between a 9 and an 11. The bubble is full of horrendous teams. We are a very good team . Your worst case scenario hypothetically is just so over the top.

 

[Big boy stan]

if you didnt like them at 8-5 is 9-5 going to make you ignore the NET if you were clinging to it anyway

Unless Iowa pulls a Northwestern on us, I dont see our NET moving that much in a loss. Even a competitive loss will match the expectations and may even move Iowa up a bit, which offsets the downward pressure.

So if our NET stays the same then the NET biased members opinions probably dont change regardless of todays result. On the other hand, the downside of a loss becomes more important for the other members that are looking at Q1 and super Q1 record.

 

[bac2therac]

For some reason he's super enamored with Florida (still on his Next Four Out) so I guess he thought A&M's win over them was the best thing since sliced bread.

remember CBS big contract with SEC. Ditto for the AAC. See it with Lunardi and ACC/Big 12, its just that slight bias before selection sunday where they put their real prediction up

I do agree that A&M is getting closer but how can you them over Indiana. I get why he does not have Michigan in but Indiana has better wins than A&M without the bad losses

 

[goru7]

with Rutgers its either you value the wins or you value the NET. Its not like beating Iowa improves the resume dramatically, yes its a great quality win but RU is already 8-5 vs the field, if you didnt like them at 8-5 is 9-5 going to make you ignore the NET if you were clinging to it anyway....listen to aholes like Norlander who say they are not even in if they beat Iowa...thats just bullshit talk. The NET probably is going to still be no better than 68/70 with a win over Iowa...those who cling to metrics will still remain negative about RU

Except that Iowa is a solid 15 in the Net. They are not a 35-50 team . Iowa ‘s perception is one of the hottest teams on the country coming off an historic day. Rutgers wins today and we have as good a chance as they do , the NET should go up 20 on a neutral floor. Nebraska went up 10-20 with road wins at Ohio State and Wisconsin and Iowa is 15. It is a neutral so not as great a leap as road win but still likely 15 point jump.

 

[cicero grimes]

Stop and grow a pair. We are 8-5 against the current field , 6-5 Quad 1 and the top half of Quad 1 and top half of Quad 2. We are like Bracketville Dave and others Lunardi , DeCourcey and our own BAC says between a 9 and an 11. The bubble is full of horrendous teams. We are a very good team . Your worst case scenario hypothetically is just so over the top.

Actually BAC replied that in my scenario, either us or UM is out. As a Rutgers fan you have to prepare for the worst because it frequently occurs.

 

[RUChoppin]

that was the SHU game. For Lafayette he injured himself with about 8 minutes to play. RU will get no sympathy for that game at home. UMass perhaps

We were in a dogfight for most of that game. Our largest lead was 6 points with 0:57 left in the first half, but went into halftime only up 1. We then trailed for most of the second half (13:05... and tied for another 2:50), going behind by as many as 7.

If Harper hadn't sagged off his man into the lane with 2 seconds left, we might have escaped - but we put ourselves in the position to lose throughout the game. We went 4/26 from 3P, 12/30 from 2P, and 15/23 at the FT line.

 

[bac2therac]

Except that Iowa is a solid 15 in the Net. They are not a 35-50 team . Iowa ‘s perception is one of the hottest teams on the country coming off an historic day. Rutgers wins today and we have as good a chance as they do , the NET should go up 20 on a neutral floor. Nebraska went up 10-20 with road wins at Ohio State and Wisconsin and Iowa is 15. It is a neutral so not as great a leap as road win but still likely 15 point jump.

the net will not go up 20 unless RU wins by 30...it will be a nice move up but not enormous

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

they have not been any more terrible than other power 6 ncaa caliber schools.

i'll be honest havent really focused much outside B1G. Saw UNC a few times now and........

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

BART rankings since Feb 4
2 Iowa
18 RU
24 Ill
28 Mich
34 Purdue
36 Wisc
38 OSU

66 IU
79 MD
83 MSU
86 Neb
91 NW
93 PSU
151 MIN

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Stop and grow a pair. We are 8-5 against the current field , 6-5 Quad 1 and the top half of Quad 1 and top half of Quad 2. We are like Bracketville Dave and others Lunardi , DeCourcey and our own BAC says between a 9 and an 11. The bubble is full of horrendous teams. We are a very good team . Your worst case scenario hypothetically is just so over the top.

If you can't see why a fan should be nervous with a loss today......grow a pair? what does that supposed to mean.

If the probability of RU making the tournament is 90% with a loss to Iowa I think it is rational a fan to be nervous.

 

[hbr1103]

If you can't see why a fan should be nervous with a loss today......grow a pair? what does that supposed to mean.

If the probability of RU making the tournament is 90% with a loss to Iowa I think it is rational a fan to be nervous.

RU is a lock
Nothing to be nervous about

 

[bac2therac]

If you can't see why a fan should be nervous with a loss today......grow a pair? what does that supposed to mean.

If the probability of RU making the tournament is 90% with a loss to Iowa I think it is rational a fan to be nervous.

a loss today and everyone should be nervous...even with a 75-80% chance of making it, it still means rapid heartbeats as the names are called at 6PM...imagine not being called in the first 3 regions and waiting until the very last brackets are revealed for the 6/11s

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

the net will not go up 20 unless RU wins by 30...it will be a nice move up but not enormous

No but 80 is a real possibility with a loss. There are other teams right behind that could still pick up wins to jump us.

An Iowa win vs loss could be the difference between say a NET 68 vs. NET 80 finish. On paper those numbers look pretty different.

 

[hbr1103]

No but 80 is a real possibility with a loss. There are other teams right behind that could still pick up wins to jump us.

An Iowa win vs loss could be the difference between say a NET 68 vs. NET 80 finish. On paper those numbers look pretty different.

A close loss to Iowa and NET improve
BAC all along it was said 12 wins locks it up

 

[fatsam98]

FFS Auburn

 

[Mbash93]

AM winning right now not good for bubble teams

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

RU is a lock
Nothing to be nervous about

Is Indiana a lock?

Who has a better record
What is SOS comparison?

 

[King of S]

Rutgers in my view is a lock
Lose bad today 12 seed
Lose today less than 10 or so an 11 seed
Win today at worse a 10

NET will kill seed
However their Q 1 and 2 record is so good it guarantees a bid

Lose today and off to Dayton.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

a loss today and everyone should be nervous...even with a 75-80% chance of making it, it still means rapid heartbeats as the names are called at 6PM...imagine not being called in the first 3 regions and waiting until the very last brackets are revealed for the 6/11s

exactly.....am I less of a man because I am nervous.

We all know Rutgers is a much better team than most/all on the bubble. November and December happened.

 

[bac2therac]

AM winning right now not good for bubble teams

a win by A&M puts them close but still think they would need an additional win tomorrow. They would have a very similar resume to Indiana but with two bad losses which Indiana does not have.

 

[IL Lusciato]

Illinois sucking wind.

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

a win by A&M puts them close but still think they would need an additional win tomorrow. They would have a very similar resume to Indiana but with two bad losses which Indiana does not have.

A&M only gets in if they 1) win the SEC (doubtful) or 2) at least get to the SEC CG…also doubtful. That bad stretch made them NIT material

 

[bac2therac]

Indiana punch punch dance dance

this is how you do it

 

[UofMbasketball]

As a Michigan fan today and yesterday has been painful. Seems like everything that can go wrong is going wrong. If Indiana and TAMU, I think both of us are out with a loss (RU and UM).

Also, can anyone help me. Every time I make 2 comments in a day, I get hit with a "insufficient privilege to comment" message. Is there something I'm doing wrong? I don't know where to ask so help would be appreciated.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

A close loss to Iowa and NET improve
BAC all along it was said 12 wins locks it up

We were talking in general about how our NET could be viewed and 2 schools of thought. That’s with respect to getting into the field and also the play in game. All I’m saying is the NET likely ends in a materially different place with a win vs a loss. So does SOS as we play an extra Q1 game.

 

[Mbash93]

Indiana punch punch dance dance

this is how you do it

Is Indy going to screw us here?

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Auburn first half shooting: 6-37 (3-20 from deep). Smith is 3-7, and three guys hit one FG each. Amazingly bad.

 

[fatsam98]

North Texas down 15-10 to LaTech 3 minutes to go in the half. Sounds like quite the game

 

[kcg88]

JFC Auburn

 

[bac2therac]

Lets go Illini!