Its that time again. First outlook will just breakdown the NCAA situation by conference. Full pecking order will not start until next week. RPI numbers from 2/20
One bid conferences
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
BIG SKY: North Dakota
BIG SOUTH: UNC Asheville
BIG WEST: UC Irvine
COLONIAL: North Carolina Wilmington
CUSA: Middle Tennessee State
HORIZON: Valparaiso
IVY: Princeton
MAAC: Monmouth
MIDAMERICAN: Akron
MEAC: North Carolina Central
MOUNTAIN WEST: Nevada
NORTHEAST: Mount St Mary's
OHIO VALLEY: Belmont
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SOUTHERN: Furman
SOUTHLAND: New Orleans
SUN BELT: Texas Arlington
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: North Dakota State
WAC: CSU Bakersfield
AMERICAN
Autobid: SMU
In: Cincinnati
ATLANTIC 10
Autobid: Virginia Commonwealth
Bubble
(27) DAYTON 20-5: Flyers can win regular season A10 title, if they can win out in the last 4 which would include a win over VCU who they lost to earlier this season. The overall win total looks great at this point but the concern here is lack of quality wins. With the A10 being very down, Dayton has just one top 50 win in 4 tries and that is over a Vanderbilt team that is on the wrong side of the bubble. Thats going to prevent them from locking in for now. They are a sparkling 11-4 vs top 50 but even there the highlight is just the sweep over Rhode Island. Hard to imagine in such a weak bubble year them not making it when all is said and done
(51) RHODE ISLAND 17-9: That win over Cincy was nice but there is little else here given the weakness of the A10.....1-3 vs top 50 and poor 3-8 vs top 100 and a real bad loss to Fordham. Their only shot at an at large is to sweep the last 4 of LaSalle, VCU, SJU and Davidson. The VCU win would at least keep them in discussion but they would also probably need a trip to the A10 finals.
ACC
Autobid: North Carolina
In: Louisville, Duke, Virginia, Florida State, Notre Dame
Bubble
(35) VIRGINIA TECH 18-8: ACC such a strong league with a plethora of bubbles and the Hokies lead the way based on their wins over Duke, Virginia, and a good non conference win at Michigan. They also went 4-1 against other ACC bubbles. 2-6 vs top 50 may not be all that impressive but 10-7 vs top 100 is quite good and just one blemish is the bad loss to NC State. Still though work to do as 3 fellow bubbles to face in the next 4....all 3 at home: Clemson, Wake and Miami, even taking just one of those and handling BC on the road will probably be enough for them.
(37) WAKE FOREST 15-12: The overall rpi number is strong despite the wobbly overall mark. Much of that lies with the strong SOS of 16 then the actual meat on the Deacons resume. Just 6-9 in the ACC, they will really need to do more to help their case. A pitiful 0-8 vs top 25 and equally woeful 1-9 vs top 50 (Miami). The 5-12 vs top 100 shows two things...on the plus side, no bad losses, the worst being the sweep to Clemson but also shows real trouble. 5 top 100 wins in strong year for the ACC raises red flags. Opportunity in the last 3...Pitt, Louisville and at Va Tech, looks like WF will need those first two to position themselves before the ACC tourney.
(44) MIAMI 18-8: Canes are right there with the Hokies atop the ACC bubble but still might need a little work to do. Just 2-7 vs the top 50 but one of those was a real big one that keeps giving....UNC, throw in wins over Va Tech, Pitt, Clemson and Ga Tech too to push their top 100 mark to 6-8 but their best OOC is only Stanford. Canes get murderers row in their next 4..at Virginia, Duke, at VT, and at FSU. So probably getting one of those will set them up pretty good for an at large bid.
(57) PITTSBURGH 15-12: Panthers at 4-10 in the ACC would appear to be not in good shape. However a closer look says not so fast. The SOS of 7 is quite strong and there are some good wins here...Virginia, FSU, at Maryland and wins over bubbles Marquette and Syracuse. Opportunity is there in the last 4 of Wake, UNC, GT, VT...3 of them on the road and the Panthers will probably need to get 3 of these because anything less would leave them 6-12 in the ACC and that just is way too poor to overcome
(60) CLEMSON 14-12: An even worse overall record than Pitt with the same awful 4-10 league mark yet that 4-9 mark vs top 50 and 9-11 mark vs top 100 leaves the door open for them to work their way forward from the back of the pack. They have not fared well against the tops in league and that shows with the 0-7 mark vs top 25 but nice wins OOC at So Carolina and UNC Wilmington and there 2 wins over Wake and wins over Georgia, Pitt and Ga Tech. They will need to sweep these last 4 but that includes wins at Va Tech and FSU in the first two so we will know their fate soon.
(73) GEORGIA TECH 15-11: Yellowjackets have a lagging rpi number and mediocre record but there is some pretty good flesh on the resume. 3-3 vs top 25 and 4-7 vs top 50 are pretty impressive numbers. Wins over UNC, FSU, and Notre Dame, a strong OOC win at VCU and throw in wins over Clemson and just recently over Cuse. Ga Tech in striking range right now but need to probably take 3 of last 4 and get another road win to help the sagging 2-8 mark. Road games at Cuse and Notre Dame with home games of NC St and Pitt.
(77) SYRACUSE 16-12: Orange find themselves in a similar spot as they did last year. Some real questionable losses...3 of them this year...all against former BE schools SJU, BC, and UConn really really hurt much like they did last year. But the Orange got rewarded last year on who they beat as well and you cannot dismiss the 5-6 mark vs top 50 and 7-9 mark vs top 100. Wins over FSU, Virginia, Monmouth, Miami and Wake are very good. It is likely though that Cuse will need another big win to offset the bad losses...Duke at home provided that opportunity but if not a road win at Louisville will do the trick. Still lots to be sorted out in a crowded ACC bubble picture where things will not get sorted out until the end of the ACC tourney and where the conference could get as many as 10 this year
BIG EAST
Autobid: Villanova
In: Xavier, Creighton, Butler
Bubble
(46) SETON HALL 16-10: Pirates kept themselves alive with that home win over Creighton but failed to get that feather in their cap win they need in the loss to Nova. Still if they can finish out strong, this resume is willing. The OOC stuff is strong with wins over South Carolina and California. In league not so much as they split with Marquette and Providence but did beat Georgetown. 3-6 vs top 50 and 6-9 vs top 100 put them right near the last 4 in line. Thinking is they will need a win either at home vs Xavier or at Butler in addition to beating De Paul and Georgetown to feel secure heading into the BE tourney, otherwise they might need a run to the finals.
(61) GEORGETOWN 14-13: The overall mark is atrocious but unpeeling this onion sees 3 top 25 wins on the resume and a SOS of 6. Bigtime OOC win over Oregon and in league wins over Creighton and at Butler. Lets also not forget at win at Cuse. 3-9 vs top 50 and 6-13 vs top 100. Note no loss outside the top 100 but just alot of them, they got swept by PC, split with Marquette, and lost the only game thus far with SHU. They need to win the last 4 and the first 3 are doable....De Paul, at SJU, at SHU, and of course Nova......and that last one would be good enough to probably put them in but lose that that will be 14 losses and another loss in the BE tourney would be 15 and no chance the committee gives a bid to a 15 loss team.
(67) PROVIDENCE 16-11: Some nice things on this resume....3-7 vs top 100 and a strong 8-8 vs top 100. Those wins are solid enough....Butler, Xavier, and SHU..and they did sweep Gtown too. Issue here is that the Friars have too many questionable or bad losses.....at 205 BC and at 226 De Paul, these are two losses that doom them unless they can win out and then pull a run to the BE finals. Starts with a road trip to Creighton, lose that and you can probably stick a fork in them, win and live to see another day with 3 very winnable games to close the year vs Marquette, De Paul and SJU.
(72) MARQUETTE 16-10: Overall rpi number is lower than other BE bubbles due to schedule strength only of 70. However 3 top 25 wins and 5-5 vs top 50 perhaps makes them the most impressive of the Big East bubbles. That win over Villanova never stops giving but wins over Creighton and Xavier shows that this team is worthy. Split with Gtown and SHU but lost the only game with PC thus far. OOC the wins over Vandy and Georgia are nice consider those schools also sit on the bubble. Would seem to be best positioned among these bubbles where a split in the last 4 of SJU/at PC/at Xavier/Creighton would probably be enough to land a bid this year.
BIG 12
Autobid: Kansas
In: Baylor, West Virginia
Bubble
(28) OKLAHOMA STATE 16-9: Cowboys heating up down the stretch winners of 8 of 9 and starting to look very close to locking in. Wins at WVU and at TCU to go along with the non conference win at Wichita State really buoy this resume. Throw in another win over TCU, and wins over bubbles Geo Tech and Arkansas and the 7-8 top 100 mark, the SOS of 13 and 8-5 road/neutral mark look strong. The last 4 are brutal....at KSU, Tex Tech, at ISU, and Kansas but it would take a total collapse for them to miss out at this point
(43) IOWA STATE 17-9: Lots of good things on the Cyclones' resume as well as they are very close too to locking in. That win at Kansas is overflowing with goodness. Add in wins at Oklahoma State, a sweep of Kansas State, and looking better by the day OOC win over Minnesota for good measure. 7-7 vs top 100 and a 9-5 B12 league mark are more strong points. They probably only need one of a tough last 4...at TTech, Baylor, OSU, and at WVU
(54) TCU 16-10: Horned Frogs bobbling right along the last 2 in last 2 out line right now and have to credit Jaimie Dixon for their unexpected resurgence. The overall weakness of the bubble really helps them along with the strength of the Big 12. SOS of 33 very good so while the 2-8 mark vs top 50 and 5-10 vs top 100 leave alot to be desired they do stack up okay with those schools around the bubble mendoza line. OOC they have a good won over Illinois State, In league the best win is Iowa State but also did win at Kansas State. Note two losses to OSU and they just have not had that big standout win against the top 3 in the league that they can hang their hat on. On the flip side no loss outside the top 100. Final 4 will likely decide which direction they head....at Kansas, WVU, KSU, and at Oklahoma
(55) KANSAS STATE 17-10: Cats have 3 strong wins in a murky 3-8 vs top 50 mark....Baylor, WVU, and OSU. Beating two of the top 3 in this league are going to go along way to offset the fact that KSU is just 4-10 vs top 100. There is no OOC win of signficance and their conference mark is just 6-8. Going to need to probably get 2 or 3 of the last 4 with OSU, OU, TCU, and Tex Tech coming up. Big 12 will get 6 but the 7th school is going to have to earn it.
(88) TEXAS TECH 17-10: Just 5-9 in league, the Red Raiders hopes are on life support unless they really coming up big down the stretch. Opportunity is there with games vs Iowa State, Okie State, and Kansas State but they might need all 3. If they can get those there is a nice base of wins to work with....again 2 big league wins over Baylor and WVU and they do have wins over bubbles TCU/KSU. The OOC stuff just is not there, a SOS of 113 usually will not cut with no OOC wins of significance. Oh and that road/neutral mark of 2-8 is quite hideous.
BIG 10
Autobid: Purdue
In: Wisconsin, Maryland
Bubble
(22) MINNESOTA 20-7: Gophers notched their 5th straight victory last night in a bubble matchup with Michigan. That now makes 10-7 vs top 100 rpi which is among the tops of the bubble schools. 5-5 vs top 50 includes big league wins at Purdue and Northwestern. Sneaky good wins OOC over Arkansas, Vandy, Texas Alrington and Vandy. SOS is a very strong 16. Road/neutral fine enough at 5-4. Looks like all systems go for Minny who might just need one more in the last 4 for good measure.
(38) NORTHWESTERN 20-7: It finally looks like it is going to happen, Northwestern's first trip to the NCAA in history. The injury to Lindsey seemed to put them on the skids for awhile but that win at Wisconsin could have saved the season and helped bolster a solid but yet unspectular resume. OOC wins over Wake and Dayton but in league besides Wisky, only at MSU of note. The Indiana win is middling win at this point. 3-6 vs top 50 but the 8-7 vs top 100 mark is the strength here. SOS sags a little at 79 but after the rally against Rutgers, the Cats are probably 1-2 more wins away including the Big 10 tourney to punching their ticket. Road trips to Indiana/Illinois are followed by opportunities for quality wins at home vs Michigan and Purdue.
(41) MICHIGAN STATE 16-11: Pretty unfamiliar territory for Izzo's bunch to find themselves this far down on the last 8 in line vicinity this deep into the season. Just been that kind of season for the Spartans who have never gained traction and now must deal with the loss of Eron Harris who was avg almost 11ppg. Sparty will have to finish strong which may mean winning at either Maryland or home to Wisconsin and they probably need to win at Illinois and Nebby at home. A split of those 4 might require a deep Big 10 tourney run. There are some positives here as the top 50 and 100 marks are solid enough...4-6 vs top 50 and 8-10 vs top 100. OOC there was the win over Wichita State but while MSU played a tough OOC schedule reflected in the SOS of 15 they came up O fer against the top programs. Their best wins and these wins are looking better are the two over Minnesota and they also have wins over Northwestern and Michigan.
(53) MICHIGAN 17-10: Like MSU, Wolverines are right around that bubble line need a couple of more wins at least to secure themselves. 3-7 vs top 50 and 9-9 vs top 100 lands them on the right side of the bubble for now. Non conference win over SMU is a real good one and got a big in league win over Wisconsin. They split with MSU, swept fellow bubble Indiana and also have a win over another bubble Marquette. Losses to Big 10 foes Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State are not bad per se but they have prevented UM from locking in. Last 4 shows three of them on the road...RU, Northwestern, Nebraska with Purdue at home..that is a pretty tough schedule but a split might be enough to do it in a year where there figure to be very few bid stealers.
(63) ILLINOIS 14-12: Hard to imagine that the Illini would still be in consideration and it might be a pretty big longshot given the poor overall mark and the 5-9 league mark. However the last 4 are certainly winnable for them and would give them 3 top 100 wins to add to the 5-12 mark...starting with Northwestern at home, Nebby/RU on the road, and MSU at home. If they can get all of them, then they will have moved themselves into serious discussion.They have a solid win over VCU and did beat Northwestern and Michigan but its just been a year where they have not yet won games in bunches that will lead them to a NCAA run and time is running out.
(90) INDIANA 15-12: Hoosier's overall record, rpi number, and nitty gritty profile have all spiraled downward in the last few weeks. IU has lost 6 of its last 7 and all 6 of those losses to NCAA likely or bubble teams. At just 5-9 in the Big 10, Indiana is a team playing itself out of the NCAA tourney. Such a shame though because you look at the non conference wins and go wow! UNC and Kansas those are two powerhouse wins which make the cup runneth over. Unfortunely since then with just a win over Michigan State to add to that, they sit at 3-8 vs top 50 and 6-11 vs top 100, clearly behind in a crowded Big 10 bubble field and a Big 10 that is looked upon as somewhat down. The road/neutral mark of 2-8 is poor and that loss to Indiana Fort Wayne was pretty terrible. While its true that injuries have hurt them, its been moreso the chemistry and they will need to find the tonic in the last 4. If they can take down the likes of Northwestern and beat OSU/Iowa on the road they can at least keep themselves in contention even without beating Purdue, if they win all 4 then they just might have played their way back into the dance.
MISSOURI VALLEY
Autobid: Wichita State
Bubble
(35) ILLINOIS STATE 21-5: Likely headed to a co-MVC title with Wichita State. Overall strong record and rpi mark but beneath the surface there is not much here. Just a win over Wichita State among the top 50 and just 2-3 vs top 100, the other win being New Mexico. The SOS is a poor 150 and 16 of their 21 wins come to plus 150 schools. That bad loss to 238 Murray State may prove costly. Going to be hard to justfy an at large bid with anything less than winning out and then losing a close one to WSU in MVC finals. They certainly are capable of winning the MVC tourney, WSU is better suited to get an at large should they fail to win the MVC tourney.
PAC 12
Autobid: Arizona
In: Oregon, UCLA
Bubble
(31) USC 21-6: Trojans have a gaudy mark and a solid rpi and the Pac 12 has received its props this year albeit its more of a top heavy league than anything. Nothing really spectacular on this resume....just 2-5 vs top 50 and 5-6 vs top 100...5 top 100 wins? Seems pretty weak but in this particular year it should not harm the Trojans barring a complete collapse. Nice OOC win over SMU and there is the win over cross town rival UCLA but there isn't a win over another likely participant. On the plus side no loss to a team outside the top 100 and 5 of the losses are to schools 39 or better. A trip to the Arizona schools awaits followed by hosting the Washington schools, not expecting a win vs Arizona but as long as they win 2 of the other 3 they will surely be dancing.
(39) CALIFORNIA 19-8: The Bears numbers are even worse than USC's so they need to be a little more concerned. Their only top 50 win was at USC...just 1-6 vs top 50 and a troubling 4-8 vs top 100. The best OOC win was just Princeton. Yet on the plus side, no loss to a team outside the top 100 and the SOS of 34 is a plus. In a typical year, Cal would be most bubblicious especially with the usual amount of bubble teams from the Pac 12 but this year they land several spots higher because of the warts of other bubble teams and that the Pac 12 is highly thought of at the top. The final 4 starts with hosting Oregon, a win which would end the discussion and vault them in but failing to get that one, they will get 3 bottom Pac 12 types....OSU, at Utah, and at Colorado so it means they might want to add a quality win at some point in the Pac 12 tourney to feel on the safe side.
SEC
Autobid: Florida
In: Kentucky
(30) SOUTH CAROLINA 19-7: Remember what happened to the Cocks last year? Well it might be happening again. After racing out to a flashy mark and logging alot of top 100 wins but yet none of quality, SC tanked down the end of the stretch last year. This year once again top 100 mark is very very good....11-6...3-4 vs top 50...certainly the win over Florida is the big one here. Non conference they have some real nice ones over Monmouth, Michigan and Syracuse. They have done okay winning some and losing some against the 4 fellow SEC bubbles but remember this is a pretty weak conference as you move toward the bottom. So while SC is in for now, the next game is at Florida, tough game to win and then easier games against Tennessee, Miss St, and Ole Miss. If they do not want to go through what they went through last year they would just be better off winning all 3.
(33) ARKANSAS 20-7: Razorbacks have some nice rpi stuff but again unpeeling their onion sees it is in need of some more beef. 4-5 vs top 50 and 9-5 vs top 100 seem willing. Tex Arlington is a sneaky good OOC win but the best in league win was just So Carolina. Wins at Tennessee and Vanderbilt certainly are good to have yet unspectacular. Its the fact that all 3 of these were road wins to push the road/neutral mark to 7-4 which will help Arky the most. Note the bad loss to 247 Missouri and another bad one to Mississippi State. Those are the kind of things that the committee can point to as to why a school gets snubbed. The SEC is probably projected for four school and Arky does have a better profile than some of the SEC distant bubbles but need to finish strong. Will not add much to their quality win total unless they can win at Florida so they will need to win the games they should vs Tex A&M, Auburn and Georgia
(48) VANDERBILT 14-13: The overall mark is hideous..yes...but a case could be made if the Commodores can pull off some wins down the stretch...they get Kentucky on the road and travel to Florida....easier said then done but there is some willingness in their nitty gritty. 4-7 vs top 50 and 9-12 vs top 100...the latter speaks to the fine SOS of 3 in the country. They have a good OOC win over Iowa State and a bigtime win at Florida, add in a win at Arky and over SC and you can see that they are team capable of competing in the NCAA tourney. Problem is a couple losses really hurt them...the loss to 247 Missouri is an absolute killer but you also see losses to mediocre SEC schools like Alabama and Ole Miss. A team that could be dangerous to face in the always topsy turvy SEC tourney but they might just have to win it all.
(49) TENNESSEE 14-12: Another SEC school who scheduled strong...SOS of 9, built up the top 100 win total....8-11 but just could not come up with the big wins OOC losing to Gonzaga, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Oregon. Now they did beat Kentucky in league so its a big win right there and they do have wins over bubbles Georgia Tech, Kansas State and at Vandy. Only one loss outside the top 100 and that to Miss St but when the record is that poor, every loss becomes magnified. They can move closer to the bubble line if they can win out their next 4 which is doable....Vandy, at SC, at LSU and Bama, it would give them 3 more top 100 wins and one more top 50 win and while they probably would still need to get a quality win somewhere in the SEC tourney at least there is some hope.
(52) GEORGIA 14-12: seems like the beat goes on in the SEC, another school scheduling strong...SOS of 12 but just too many losses. Georgia's numbers are a notch below the other SEC schools...2-7 vs top 50 and just 6-11 vs top 100. Their best wins OOC are UNC Asheville and Georgia Tech and the only league wins of note are Vandy and Tennessee. That will not cut it. Bulldogs went 0-6 vs the top 3 schools in the SEC. Only hope now is to sweep their last 4 and then make a run to the SEC finals...good luck.
WEST COAST
Autobid: Gonzaga
In: St Mary's
LAST 4 IN: ILLINOIS STATE, MARQUETTE, GEORGIA TECH, SETON HALL
LAST 4 OUT: TCU, CLEMSON, INDIANA, PITTSBURGH
One bid conferences
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
BIG SKY: North Dakota
BIG SOUTH: UNC Asheville
BIG WEST: UC Irvine
COLONIAL: North Carolina Wilmington
CUSA: Middle Tennessee State
HORIZON: Valparaiso
IVY: Princeton
MAAC: Monmouth
MIDAMERICAN: Akron
MEAC: North Carolina Central
MOUNTAIN WEST: Nevada
NORTHEAST: Mount St Mary's
OHIO VALLEY: Belmont
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SOUTHERN: Furman
SOUTHLAND: New Orleans
SUN BELT: Texas Arlington
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: North Dakota State
WAC: CSU Bakersfield
AMERICAN
Autobid: SMU
In: Cincinnati
ATLANTIC 10
Autobid: Virginia Commonwealth
Bubble
(27) DAYTON 20-5: Flyers can win regular season A10 title, if they can win out in the last 4 which would include a win over VCU who they lost to earlier this season. The overall win total looks great at this point but the concern here is lack of quality wins. With the A10 being very down, Dayton has just one top 50 win in 4 tries and that is over a Vanderbilt team that is on the wrong side of the bubble. Thats going to prevent them from locking in for now. They are a sparkling 11-4 vs top 50 but even there the highlight is just the sweep over Rhode Island. Hard to imagine in such a weak bubble year them not making it when all is said and done
(51) RHODE ISLAND 17-9: That win over Cincy was nice but there is little else here given the weakness of the A10.....1-3 vs top 50 and poor 3-8 vs top 100 and a real bad loss to Fordham. Their only shot at an at large is to sweep the last 4 of LaSalle, VCU, SJU and Davidson. The VCU win would at least keep them in discussion but they would also probably need a trip to the A10 finals.
ACC
Autobid: North Carolina
In: Louisville, Duke, Virginia, Florida State, Notre Dame
Bubble
(35) VIRGINIA TECH 18-8: ACC such a strong league with a plethora of bubbles and the Hokies lead the way based on their wins over Duke, Virginia, and a good non conference win at Michigan. They also went 4-1 against other ACC bubbles. 2-6 vs top 50 may not be all that impressive but 10-7 vs top 100 is quite good and just one blemish is the bad loss to NC State. Still though work to do as 3 fellow bubbles to face in the next 4....all 3 at home: Clemson, Wake and Miami, even taking just one of those and handling BC on the road will probably be enough for them.
(37) WAKE FOREST 15-12: The overall rpi number is strong despite the wobbly overall mark. Much of that lies with the strong SOS of 16 then the actual meat on the Deacons resume. Just 6-9 in the ACC, they will really need to do more to help their case. A pitiful 0-8 vs top 25 and equally woeful 1-9 vs top 50 (Miami). The 5-12 vs top 100 shows two things...on the plus side, no bad losses, the worst being the sweep to Clemson but also shows real trouble. 5 top 100 wins in strong year for the ACC raises red flags. Opportunity in the last 3...Pitt, Louisville and at Va Tech, looks like WF will need those first two to position themselves before the ACC tourney.
(44) MIAMI 18-8: Canes are right there with the Hokies atop the ACC bubble but still might need a little work to do. Just 2-7 vs the top 50 but one of those was a real big one that keeps giving....UNC, throw in wins over Va Tech, Pitt, Clemson and Ga Tech too to push their top 100 mark to 6-8 but their best OOC is only Stanford. Canes get murderers row in their next 4..at Virginia, Duke, at VT, and at FSU. So probably getting one of those will set them up pretty good for an at large bid.
(57) PITTSBURGH 15-12: Panthers at 4-10 in the ACC would appear to be not in good shape. However a closer look says not so fast. The SOS of 7 is quite strong and there are some good wins here...Virginia, FSU, at Maryland and wins over bubbles Marquette and Syracuse. Opportunity is there in the last 4 of Wake, UNC, GT, VT...3 of them on the road and the Panthers will probably need to get 3 of these because anything less would leave them 6-12 in the ACC and that just is way too poor to overcome
(60) CLEMSON 14-12: An even worse overall record than Pitt with the same awful 4-10 league mark yet that 4-9 mark vs top 50 and 9-11 mark vs top 100 leaves the door open for them to work their way forward from the back of the pack. They have not fared well against the tops in league and that shows with the 0-7 mark vs top 25 but nice wins OOC at So Carolina and UNC Wilmington and there 2 wins over Wake and wins over Georgia, Pitt and Ga Tech. They will need to sweep these last 4 but that includes wins at Va Tech and FSU in the first two so we will know their fate soon.
(73) GEORGIA TECH 15-11: Yellowjackets have a lagging rpi number and mediocre record but there is some pretty good flesh on the resume. 3-3 vs top 25 and 4-7 vs top 50 are pretty impressive numbers. Wins over UNC, FSU, and Notre Dame, a strong OOC win at VCU and throw in wins over Clemson and just recently over Cuse. Ga Tech in striking range right now but need to probably take 3 of last 4 and get another road win to help the sagging 2-8 mark. Road games at Cuse and Notre Dame with home games of NC St and Pitt.
(77) SYRACUSE 16-12: Orange find themselves in a similar spot as they did last year. Some real questionable losses...3 of them this year...all against former BE schools SJU, BC, and UConn really really hurt much like they did last year. But the Orange got rewarded last year on who they beat as well and you cannot dismiss the 5-6 mark vs top 50 and 7-9 mark vs top 100. Wins over FSU, Virginia, Monmouth, Miami and Wake are very good. It is likely though that Cuse will need another big win to offset the bad losses...Duke at home provided that opportunity but if not a road win at Louisville will do the trick. Still lots to be sorted out in a crowded ACC bubble picture where things will not get sorted out until the end of the ACC tourney and where the conference could get as many as 10 this year
BIG EAST
Autobid: Villanova
In: Xavier, Creighton, Butler
Bubble
(46) SETON HALL 16-10: Pirates kept themselves alive with that home win over Creighton but failed to get that feather in their cap win they need in the loss to Nova. Still if they can finish out strong, this resume is willing. The OOC stuff is strong with wins over South Carolina and California. In league not so much as they split with Marquette and Providence but did beat Georgetown. 3-6 vs top 50 and 6-9 vs top 100 put them right near the last 4 in line. Thinking is they will need a win either at home vs Xavier or at Butler in addition to beating De Paul and Georgetown to feel secure heading into the BE tourney, otherwise they might need a run to the finals.
(61) GEORGETOWN 14-13: The overall mark is atrocious but unpeeling this onion sees 3 top 25 wins on the resume and a SOS of 6. Bigtime OOC win over Oregon and in league wins over Creighton and at Butler. Lets also not forget at win at Cuse. 3-9 vs top 50 and 6-13 vs top 100. Note no loss outside the top 100 but just alot of them, they got swept by PC, split with Marquette, and lost the only game thus far with SHU. They need to win the last 4 and the first 3 are doable....De Paul, at SJU, at SHU, and of course Nova......and that last one would be good enough to probably put them in but lose that that will be 14 losses and another loss in the BE tourney would be 15 and no chance the committee gives a bid to a 15 loss team.
(67) PROVIDENCE 16-11: Some nice things on this resume....3-7 vs top 100 and a strong 8-8 vs top 100. Those wins are solid enough....Butler, Xavier, and SHU..and they did sweep Gtown too. Issue here is that the Friars have too many questionable or bad losses.....at 205 BC and at 226 De Paul, these are two losses that doom them unless they can win out and then pull a run to the BE finals. Starts with a road trip to Creighton, lose that and you can probably stick a fork in them, win and live to see another day with 3 very winnable games to close the year vs Marquette, De Paul and SJU.
(72) MARQUETTE 16-10: Overall rpi number is lower than other BE bubbles due to schedule strength only of 70. However 3 top 25 wins and 5-5 vs top 50 perhaps makes them the most impressive of the Big East bubbles. That win over Villanova never stops giving but wins over Creighton and Xavier shows that this team is worthy. Split with Gtown and SHU but lost the only game with PC thus far. OOC the wins over Vandy and Georgia are nice consider those schools also sit on the bubble. Would seem to be best positioned among these bubbles where a split in the last 4 of SJU/at PC/at Xavier/Creighton would probably be enough to land a bid this year.
BIG 12
Autobid: Kansas
In: Baylor, West Virginia
Bubble
(28) OKLAHOMA STATE 16-9: Cowboys heating up down the stretch winners of 8 of 9 and starting to look very close to locking in. Wins at WVU and at TCU to go along with the non conference win at Wichita State really buoy this resume. Throw in another win over TCU, and wins over bubbles Geo Tech and Arkansas and the 7-8 top 100 mark, the SOS of 13 and 8-5 road/neutral mark look strong. The last 4 are brutal....at KSU, Tex Tech, at ISU, and Kansas but it would take a total collapse for them to miss out at this point
(43) IOWA STATE 17-9: Lots of good things on the Cyclones' resume as well as they are very close too to locking in. That win at Kansas is overflowing with goodness. Add in wins at Oklahoma State, a sweep of Kansas State, and looking better by the day OOC win over Minnesota for good measure. 7-7 vs top 100 and a 9-5 B12 league mark are more strong points. They probably only need one of a tough last 4...at TTech, Baylor, OSU, and at WVU
(54) TCU 16-10: Horned Frogs bobbling right along the last 2 in last 2 out line right now and have to credit Jaimie Dixon for their unexpected resurgence. The overall weakness of the bubble really helps them along with the strength of the Big 12. SOS of 33 very good so while the 2-8 mark vs top 50 and 5-10 vs top 100 leave alot to be desired they do stack up okay with those schools around the bubble mendoza line. OOC they have a good won over Illinois State, In league the best win is Iowa State but also did win at Kansas State. Note two losses to OSU and they just have not had that big standout win against the top 3 in the league that they can hang their hat on. On the flip side no loss outside the top 100. Final 4 will likely decide which direction they head....at Kansas, WVU, KSU, and at Oklahoma
(55) KANSAS STATE 17-10: Cats have 3 strong wins in a murky 3-8 vs top 50 mark....Baylor, WVU, and OSU. Beating two of the top 3 in this league are going to go along way to offset the fact that KSU is just 4-10 vs top 100. There is no OOC win of signficance and their conference mark is just 6-8. Going to need to probably get 2 or 3 of the last 4 with OSU, OU, TCU, and Tex Tech coming up. Big 12 will get 6 but the 7th school is going to have to earn it.
(88) TEXAS TECH 17-10: Just 5-9 in league, the Red Raiders hopes are on life support unless they really coming up big down the stretch. Opportunity is there with games vs Iowa State, Okie State, and Kansas State but they might need all 3. If they can get those there is a nice base of wins to work with....again 2 big league wins over Baylor and WVU and they do have wins over bubbles TCU/KSU. The OOC stuff just is not there, a SOS of 113 usually will not cut with no OOC wins of significance. Oh and that road/neutral mark of 2-8 is quite hideous.
BIG 10
Autobid: Purdue
In: Wisconsin, Maryland
Bubble
(22) MINNESOTA 20-7: Gophers notched their 5th straight victory last night in a bubble matchup with Michigan. That now makes 10-7 vs top 100 rpi which is among the tops of the bubble schools. 5-5 vs top 50 includes big league wins at Purdue and Northwestern. Sneaky good wins OOC over Arkansas, Vandy, Texas Alrington and Vandy. SOS is a very strong 16. Road/neutral fine enough at 5-4. Looks like all systems go for Minny who might just need one more in the last 4 for good measure.
(38) NORTHWESTERN 20-7: It finally looks like it is going to happen, Northwestern's first trip to the NCAA in history. The injury to Lindsey seemed to put them on the skids for awhile but that win at Wisconsin could have saved the season and helped bolster a solid but yet unspectular resume. OOC wins over Wake and Dayton but in league besides Wisky, only at MSU of note. The Indiana win is middling win at this point. 3-6 vs top 50 but the 8-7 vs top 100 mark is the strength here. SOS sags a little at 79 but after the rally against Rutgers, the Cats are probably 1-2 more wins away including the Big 10 tourney to punching their ticket. Road trips to Indiana/Illinois are followed by opportunities for quality wins at home vs Michigan and Purdue.
(41) MICHIGAN STATE 16-11: Pretty unfamiliar territory for Izzo's bunch to find themselves this far down on the last 8 in line vicinity this deep into the season. Just been that kind of season for the Spartans who have never gained traction and now must deal with the loss of Eron Harris who was avg almost 11ppg. Sparty will have to finish strong which may mean winning at either Maryland or home to Wisconsin and they probably need to win at Illinois and Nebby at home. A split of those 4 might require a deep Big 10 tourney run. There are some positives here as the top 50 and 100 marks are solid enough...4-6 vs top 50 and 8-10 vs top 100. OOC there was the win over Wichita State but while MSU played a tough OOC schedule reflected in the SOS of 15 they came up O fer against the top programs. Their best wins and these wins are looking better are the two over Minnesota and they also have wins over Northwestern and Michigan.
(53) MICHIGAN 17-10: Like MSU, Wolverines are right around that bubble line need a couple of more wins at least to secure themselves. 3-7 vs top 50 and 9-9 vs top 100 lands them on the right side of the bubble for now. Non conference win over SMU is a real good one and got a big in league win over Wisconsin. They split with MSU, swept fellow bubble Indiana and also have a win over another bubble Marquette. Losses to Big 10 foes Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State are not bad per se but they have prevented UM from locking in. Last 4 shows three of them on the road...RU, Northwestern, Nebraska with Purdue at home..that is a pretty tough schedule but a split might be enough to do it in a year where there figure to be very few bid stealers.
(63) ILLINOIS 14-12: Hard to imagine that the Illini would still be in consideration and it might be a pretty big longshot given the poor overall mark and the 5-9 league mark. However the last 4 are certainly winnable for them and would give them 3 top 100 wins to add to the 5-12 mark...starting with Northwestern at home, Nebby/RU on the road, and MSU at home. If they can get all of them, then they will have moved themselves into serious discussion.They have a solid win over VCU and did beat Northwestern and Michigan but its just been a year where they have not yet won games in bunches that will lead them to a NCAA run and time is running out.
(90) INDIANA 15-12: Hoosier's overall record, rpi number, and nitty gritty profile have all spiraled downward in the last few weeks. IU has lost 6 of its last 7 and all 6 of those losses to NCAA likely or bubble teams. At just 5-9 in the Big 10, Indiana is a team playing itself out of the NCAA tourney. Such a shame though because you look at the non conference wins and go wow! UNC and Kansas those are two powerhouse wins which make the cup runneth over. Unfortunely since then with just a win over Michigan State to add to that, they sit at 3-8 vs top 50 and 6-11 vs top 100, clearly behind in a crowded Big 10 bubble field and a Big 10 that is looked upon as somewhat down. The road/neutral mark of 2-8 is poor and that loss to Indiana Fort Wayne was pretty terrible. While its true that injuries have hurt them, its been moreso the chemistry and they will need to find the tonic in the last 4. If they can take down the likes of Northwestern and beat OSU/Iowa on the road they can at least keep themselves in contention even without beating Purdue, if they win all 4 then they just might have played their way back into the dance.
MISSOURI VALLEY
Autobid: Wichita State
Bubble
(35) ILLINOIS STATE 21-5: Likely headed to a co-MVC title with Wichita State. Overall strong record and rpi mark but beneath the surface there is not much here. Just a win over Wichita State among the top 50 and just 2-3 vs top 100, the other win being New Mexico. The SOS is a poor 150 and 16 of their 21 wins come to plus 150 schools. That bad loss to 238 Murray State may prove costly. Going to be hard to justfy an at large bid with anything less than winning out and then losing a close one to WSU in MVC finals. They certainly are capable of winning the MVC tourney, WSU is better suited to get an at large should they fail to win the MVC tourney.
PAC 12
Autobid: Arizona
In: Oregon, UCLA
Bubble
(31) USC 21-6: Trojans have a gaudy mark and a solid rpi and the Pac 12 has received its props this year albeit its more of a top heavy league than anything. Nothing really spectacular on this resume....just 2-5 vs top 50 and 5-6 vs top 100...5 top 100 wins? Seems pretty weak but in this particular year it should not harm the Trojans barring a complete collapse. Nice OOC win over SMU and there is the win over cross town rival UCLA but there isn't a win over another likely participant. On the plus side no loss to a team outside the top 100 and 5 of the losses are to schools 39 or better. A trip to the Arizona schools awaits followed by hosting the Washington schools, not expecting a win vs Arizona but as long as they win 2 of the other 3 they will surely be dancing.
(39) CALIFORNIA 19-8: The Bears numbers are even worse than USC's so they need to be a little more concerned. Their only top 50 win was at USC...just 1-6 vs top 50 and a troubling 4-8 vs top 100. The best OOC win was just Princeton. Yet on the plus side, no loss to a team outside the top 100 and the SOS of 34 is a plus. In a typical year, Cal would be most bubblicious especially with the usual amount of bubble teams from the Pac 12 but this year they land several spots higher because of the warts of other bubble teams and that the Pac 12 is highly thought of at the top. The final 4 starts with hosting Oregon, a win which would end the discussion and vault them in but failing to get that one, they will get 3 bottom Pac 12 types....OSU, at Utah, and at Colorado so it means they might want to add a quality win at some point in the Pac 12 tourney to feel on the safe side.
SEC
Autobid: Florida
In: Kentucky
(30) SOUTH CAROLINA 19-7: Remember what happened to the Cocks last year? Well it might be happening again. After racing out to a flashy mark and logging alot of top 100 wins but yet none of quality, SC tanked down the end of the stretch last year. This year once again top 100 mark is very very good....11-6...3-4 vs top 50...certainly the win over Florida is the big one here. Non conference they have some real nice ones over Monmouth, Michigan and Syracuse. They have done okay winning some and losing some against the 4 fellow SEC bubbles but remember this is a pretty weak conference as you move toward the bottom. So while SC is in for now, the next game is at Florida, tough game to win and then easier games against Tennessee, Miss St, and Ole Miss. If they do not want to go through what they went through last year they would just be better off winning all 3.
(33) ARKANSAS 20-7: Razorbacks have some nice rpi stuff but again unpeeling their onion sees it is in need of some more beef. 4-5 vs top 50 and 9-5 vs top 100 seem willing. Tex Arlington is a sneaky good OOC win but the best in league win was just So Carolina. Wins at Tennessee and Vanderbilt certainly are good to have yet unspectacular. Its the fact that all 3 of these were road wins to push the road/neutral mark to 7-4 which will help Arky the most. Note the bad loss to 247 Missouri and another bad one to Mississippi State. Those are the kind of things that the committee can point to as to why a school gets snubbed. The SEC is probably projected for four school and Arky does have a better profile than some of the SEC distant bubbles but need to finish strong. Will not add much to their quality win total unless they can win at Florida so they will need to win the games they should vs Tex A&M, Auburn and Georgia
(48) VANDERBILT 14-13: The overall mark is hideous..yes...but a case could be made if the Commodores can pull off some wins down the stretch...they get Kentucky on the road and travel to Florida....easier said then done but there is some willingness in their nitty gritty. 4-7 vs top 50 and 9-12 vs top 100...the latter speaks to the fine SOS of 3 in the country. They have a good OOC win over Iowa State and a bigtime win at Florida, add in a win at Arky and over SC and you can see that they are team capable of competing in the NCAA tourney. Problem is a couple losses really hurt them...the loss to 247 Missouri is an absolute killer but you also see losses to mediocre SEC schools like Alabama and Ole Miss. A team that could be dangerous to face in the always topsy turvy SEC tourney but they might just have to win it all.
(49) TENNESSEE 14-12: Another SEC school who scheduled strong...SOS of 9, built up the top 100 win total....8-11 but just could not come up with the big wins OOC losing to Gonzaga, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Oregon. Now they did beat Kentucky in league so its a big win right there and they do have wins over bubbles Georgia Tech, Kansas State and at Vandy. Only one loss outside the top 100 and that to Miss St but when the record is that poor, every loss becomes magnified. They can move closer to the bubble line if they can win out their next 4 which is doable....Vandy, at SC, at LSU and Bama, it would give them 3 more top 100 wins and one more top 50 win and while they probably would still need to get a quality win somewhere in the SEC tourney at least there is some hope.
(52) GEORGIA 14-12: seems like the beat goes on in the SEC, another school scheduling strong...SOS of 12 but just too many losses. Georgia's numbers are a notch below the other SEC schools...2-7 vs top 50 and just 6-11 vs top 100. Their best wins OOC are UNC Asheville and Georgia Tech and the only league wins of note are Vandy and Tennessee. That will not cut it. Bulldogs went 0-6 vs the top 3 schools in the SEC. Only hope now is to sweep their last 4 and then make a run to the SEC finals...good luck.
WEST COAST
Autobid: Gonzaga
In: St Mary's
LAST 4 IN: ILLINOIS STATE, MARQUETTE, GEORGIA TECH, SETON HALL
LAST 4 OUT: TCU, CLEMSON, INDIANA, PITTSBURGH
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