Bac's First NCAA tourney analysis
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
SHU is in now
Baylor has now moved out of my last 4 in to the last 4 out line after their loss to TCU
Baylor has now moved out of my last 4 in to the last 4 out line after their loss to TCU
I guess you are saying that by your eye test they've been better than everybody else thinks they are? Why do you think they've been better? Because they've kinda sucked for years. I mean since UCLA went to the Final Four in 2008, only one Pac 12 school has made it to a Final Four (Oregon last season). The last time a Pac 12 school appeared in the title game was 2001.
What seedings and rankings are you talking about? Who has 32 sweet 16s and how does that compare over what time frame?
You don’t seem to have any specific point to make.
Creighton got a huge win over Villanova...not sure if totally locks them in but I would bet they are in very good shape right now after that win.
ASU just lost to Oregon State. They have Cal and Stanford at home. @bac2therac Do you think they need to win one or both?
Providence doesn't pass the eye test for me. YTD Results and other criteria may prove otherwise but to me they're an NIT team.
I take bac over all those clowns any day, but I admire how lunardi parlayed one perfect prediction into a 2nd career.
I don’t see how bad teams winning conference games against bad conference opponents makes them good. Oregon lost to UConn and Boise State in OOC play and their signature win was over Fresno State. Beating a bit of a reeling Arizona team playing without their best guard and head coach at home isn’t that impressive considering Arizona isn’t that great even when at full strength.
I’d say a fairer take is look how crappy they are when their supposed best team lost to a bad Oregon team that isn’t even near the bubble. The most comparable Big Ten team in quality is Indiana.
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Boise is pretty good. Another western team that gets shafted like Gonzaga and St. Mary's. Lets get another .500 league team!! Woo hoo!
Boise’s schedule is hot trash. Their best win of the season by KenPom rank is Loyola Chicago. They have some really bad losses to go with the total lack of good wins. But yeah, let’s grt some more teams with good records against nobody.
recapping last night
Louisville potentially saved their season by winning at Va Tech, they still need more though. Va Tech even with the loss is looking good to go.
Miami averted upset vs BC and is pretty much a lock at this point
Syracuse falls to Duke, another opportunity gone for the Orange to play themselves back in the field
St Bonaventure got a needed win at VCU
TCU improved their case by downing Baylor, meanwhile Baylor is some trouble now, I have moved them to the last 4 out line...need to win those last 2 games.
Oklahoma stopped the bleeding by ousting Kansas State. KSU missed a chance maybe to lock in but still look pretty good
Texas ended any longshot OSU hopes while the Longhorns avoided torpedoing their own hopes. Still work to do for them as they sit in the last 4 in group
Creighton got a feather in their cap win by beating Nova. Jays were sagging and now seems stabilized but i wouldnt quite lock them in yet
Seton Hall is in following their win at St Johns
Providence stays on the right side of the bubble by beating Gtown
Marquette's loss to De Paul probably fatal to their longshot NCAA hopes
Maryland done after losing to Michigan
Pac 12 is a mess right now
Arizona losing to Oregon is going to drop the profile of the league overall...
meanwhile 6 schools on the bubble...most very mediocre...going to have to wait until the last 2 conference games and Pac 12 tourney to sort things out
ASU has moved from near lock to last 8 in line...horrific loss to Oregon State
Oregon's win over Arizona at least puts them in the conversation albeit in the further regions
Utah loses to USC which really is a win they needed, meanwhile the Trojans leap into my field of 68 replacing knocking out Baylor
Washington wins at Cal but continues to hover on the last 4 in/last 4 out placement
St Marys moves to 27-4..I think its safe for me to think they are a lock even though they dont really have a strong profile OOC
Florida got a huge win over Auburn to stop their bleeding. Not a lock yet with so many SEC bubble schools but this helps alot given their strong OOC numbers
Georgia tops LSU in a battle of bubble schools. LSU needed to take care of business down the stretch and I think this is a loss that kills them barring a SEC final run...Georgia real longshot probably has to do the same
Mississippi State continues to slowly make a case by moving to 22-8 with win over SC..more to do though
Texas A&M moves a step closer to feeling good about their hopes by winning at Vandy
Arkansas wins at Alabama. I think the Hogs have locked in now. Bama meanwhile continues to sag and have moved into that dangerous last 8 line
Kentucky wallops Missouri. If there was any doubt about the Wildcats, that has been taken care of. They are locked in. Missouri still in best shape of SEC bubbles but still not a certainty
Louisville potentially saved their season by winning at Va Tech, they still need more though. Va Tech even with the loss is looking good to go.
Miami averted upset vs BC and is pretty much a lock at this point
Syracuse falls to Duke, another opportunity gone for the Orange to play themselves back in the field
St Bonaventure got a needed win at VCU
TCU improved their case by downing Baylor, meanwhile Baylor is some trouble now, I have moved them to the last 4 out line...need to win those last 2 games.
Oklahoma stopped the bleeding by ousting Kansas State. KSU missed a chance maybe to lock in but still look pretty good
Texas ended any longshot OSU hopes while the Longhorns avoided torpedoing their own hopes. Still work to do for them as they sit in the last 4 in group
Creighton got a feather in their cap win by beating Nova. Jays were sagging and now seems stabilized but i wouldnt quite lock them in yet
Seton Hall is in following their win at St Johns
Providence stays on the right side of the bubble by beating Gtown
Marquette's loss to De Paul probably fatal to their longshot NCAA hopes
Maryland done after losing to Michigan
Pac 12 is a mess right now
Arizona losing to Oregon is going to drop the profile of the league overall...
meanwhile 6 schools on the bubble...most very mediocre...going to have to wait until the last 2 conference games and Pac 12 tourney to sort things out
ASU has moved from near lock to last 8 in line...horrific loss to Oregon State
Oregon's win over Arizona at least puts them in the conversation albeit in the further regions
Utah loses to USC which really is a win they needed, meanwhile the Trojans leap into my field of 68 replacing knocking out Baylor
Washington wins at Cal but continues to hover on the last 4 in/last 4 out placement
St Marys moves to 27-4..I think its safe for me to think they are a lock even though they dont really have a strong profile OOC
Florida got a huge win over Auburn to stop their bleeding. Not a lock yet with so many SEC bubble schools but this helps alot given their strong OOC numbers
Georgia tops LSU in a battle of bubble schools. LSU needed to take care of business down the stretch and I think this is a loss that kills them barring a SEC final run...Georgia real longshot probably has to do the same
Mississippi State continues to slowly make a case by moving to 22-8 with win over SC..more to do though
Texas A&M moves a step closer to feeling good about their hopes by winning at Vandy
Arkansas wins at Alabama. I think the Hogs have locked in now. Bama meanwhile continues to sag and have moved into that dangerous last 8 line
Kentucky wallops Missouri. If there was any doubt about the Wildcats, that has been taken care of. They are locked in. Missouri still in best shape of SEC bubbles but still not a certainty
Bama still has good numbers..as does PC...both I think have to play their way out rather than having to play their way in.
they will need to win both because of the uncertainty and now 6 Pac 12 bubbles and there is not alot of differentiation between them. ASU leads the pack because of non conference stuff..wins over Kansas and Xavier but really important for them not to play their way out.
Still its body of work..wins over Kansas, Xavier and Kansas St on neutral or road sites are big plus for them
I'll assume you've never actually watched them play a game since they have one victory this season against a KenPom top 100 opponent and that took their opponent shooting 2/19 behind the arc to accomplish. But they do have 4 really bad losses to go with it, so cheers to them for that!
Opposite of my perspective of Providence, a squad that passes the eye test for me is Nebraska. It's going to be tough for them given their lack of quality wins etc but I hope they can make it in.
despite those wins and also a nice win over Wichita State and a great SOS of 9...they have 4 quadrant 3 losses...losing to awful schools like La Salle and George Washington are big blemishes that if they didnt happen would significantly improve the Owls chances...if they dont win their conference they have 13 losses..thats alot from a conference like AAC which is not going to get 4. I suppose if they win at UConn and Tulsa and then make the AAC finals, they deserve a look but nothing less than that..its not a criteria but geez they are only 8-8 in league
it was a big win today...hard to discount 13-5 in the Big 10..even in a down year. Only 1-3 vs Quadrant 3..Michigan is top 30 now and their only others win of note are Maryland..and third best win Wisconsin..are you kidding me...that atrocious non conference sos of 277 is killing them. Still they pass the eye test and score in all the intangbiles not on the team sheet. Is beating Michigan and then losing to Michigan State in a close game enough? They are not far from being in considering the entire Pac 12 is imploding right now.
For Nebraska, they need to beat Michigan in the Big 10 Tourney and then it battles Michigan State. Another thing about Nebraska is that they are full of transfers and hence started the season out slow but since learning how to play together - they are good. Copeland; Palmer; Watson; Roby etc
I agree with that G----definitely skewed against Non Power 5 schools-----essentially makes all of them 1 bid leagues and the Non Power 5 schools won't play them OOC.
The Play In Round to my way of thinking would be much more enjoyable if I saw a 25-5 Conference Champ in it instead of a 19-12 Power 5 school
Just my opinion.
The Play In Round to my way of thinking would be much more enjoyable if I saw a 25-5 Conference Champ in it instead of a 19-12 Power 5 school
Just my opinion.
you keep saying this but it actually helps the smaller conferences and midmajors....winning at a school like UCF is a quadrant 1 win..thats absurd..they are giving a win over them more credence than beating Florida State on your home court.
thats not true
first of all there are very few if any midmajors even competing for bids...only one is Boise State
low and mid majors can pick up quad 2 wins by winning on the road agains rpi 76-135 schools and pick up quad 1 wins by winning on the road to 31-75
St. Mary’s
Boise
ODU
WKU
Murray State / Belmont
All teams deserving of Bubble consideration.
The issue is also if the Vermont’s, Loyola Chicago’s, Louisiana Lafayette’s lose their conference tourney they never get the second bid.
All deserve to be in conversation.
Already bad mouthing the quadrants.
Power Conference are going to have more quadrant opportunities.
Still using RPI.
Throwing a bone but really aren’t.
Boise
ODU
WKU
Murray State / Belmont
All teams deserving of Bubble consideration.
The issue is also if the Vermont’s, Loyola Chicago’s, Louisiana Lafayette’s lose their conference tourney they never get the second bid.
All deserve to be in conversation.
Already bad mouthing the quadrants.
Power Conference are going to have more quadrant opportunities.
Still using RPI.
Throwing a bone but really aren’t.
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Would any of those teams be in any conversation if they played in any of the top conferences?
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