Here is the updated NCAA bubble picture 2/29 and first pecking order of the season
Projected Auto Bids
AMERICA EAST: Stony Brook
AMERICAN: Temple
ACC: North Carolina
ATLANTIC SUN: North Florida
ATLANTIC TEN: Virginia Commonwealth
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: Weber State
BIG SOUTH: High Point
BIG 10: Indiana
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG WEST: Hawaii
COLONIAL: Hofstra
CUSA: Alabama-Birmingham
HORIZON: Valparaiso
IVY: Princeton
MAAC: Monmouth
MIDAMERICAN: Akron
MEAC: Hampton
MVC: Wichita State
MWC: San Diego State
NORTHEAST: Wagner
OHIO VALLEY: Belmont
PAC 12: Oregon
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SEC: Texas A&M
SOUTHERN: Chattanooga
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F Austin
SUN BELT: Arkansas Little Rock
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: Indiana Purdue Forth Worth
WAC: New Mexico State
WCC: St Mary's
Projected At Large Locks: Miami, Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Dayton, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, Xavier, Seton Hall, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Utah, Arizona, California.
32 autobids, 21 at large locks = 53 bids accounted for...there are 24 schools competing for 15 bids. Here is the pecking order.....
IN
1. (23) TEXAS TECH 18-10: Red Raiders look good to go, just going to play it conservative and hold off locking them until they get one more win most likely at home vs Kansas State or the bubble plays itself out. No harm done in a loss to Kansas which snapped their 5 game win streak but boosted their SOS to #1 in the country. Looks like they have all the required wins to feel safe....Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas, Iowa State and sneaky good OOC wins over Hawaii, Ark-Little Rock, and San Diego St. 6 wins vs the rpi top 50 is the most you will find on the bubble. Send them in.
2. (36) SOUTH CAROLINA 22-6: Gamecocks are not quite a lock just yet because of a sudden penchant for bad losses. Saturday's loss to Mississippi State was their third loss to a plus 100 rpi school in the past 5 weeks. Still there is so much good here...a 5-2 mark vs top 50 and 8-3 vs top 100 with wins over Tulsa, Vandy, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Florida. The SEC has two locks but 5 bubble teams battling it out for probably 3 spots. SC has some separation from the others but cannot afford anymore trip ups. A home tilt against Georgia and at Arkansas remain and wins in both lock them. Are they safe with a split? Probably but lose both and they are in serious trouble.
3. (37) PITTSBURGH 19-8: Panthers' backs were up against the wall following a tough home loss to Louisville, but they responded with a resounding win over Duke that finally gave them another quality win to go along with their Notre Dame victory. Yes Pitt is only 2-6 vs the rpi top 50 which is rather unimpressive but the feeling is that they have done enough if you toss in the sweep over Syracuse and the 9-7 ACC mark. As long they can avoid the slip up at Virginia Tech or at Georgia Tech they should be fine. 7-6 vs top 100 and a SOS of 34 are better than most on this list.
4. (51) SYRACUSE 19-10: Orange have some really nice wins on this resume....at Duke, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and St Bonaventure get them to 4-7 vs top 50 and throw in a handy win over fellow bubble UConn as they are 7-7 vs top 100. Boeheim's suspension figures to be factored in and that's when Cuse dropped that hideous game to St Johns and another shaky one to Georgetown. Those two blemishes figure to be overlooked as long as Cuse can find a way to win one more going forward. They finish with two toughies...at UNC and at longshot bubble Fla State so that win may not come until ACC tourney time but the Orange would do themselves well to beat the Seminoles
5. (29) COLORADO 20-9: Following a disasterous week against the LA schools, the Buffaloes bounced back with a key win over Arizona which pushed their mark to 4-7 vs top 50 and 9-9 vs top 100. Wins over Oregon, Cal, Oreg St, and BYU as well. They have no bad losses outside the top 100 and that helps an otherwise solid yet unspectular resume. The Pac 10 bubble field is sorting itself out and Colorado can make it academic with a win at Utah. If not one win the Pac 12 tourney should not, if not they risk floating to the last 4 in/last 4 out grouping.
6. (26) SAINT JOSEPH'S 24-5: Hawks of course are a legit contender to win the A-10 tourney but they have the strongest case of the 3 A10 bubbles. 2-4 vs top 50 and 5-5 vs top 100 is solid for a midmajor. Besides the gaudy overall mark, the Hawks boast wins over Princeton, Dayton, GW, and at Temple. A look at the 5 losses sees the worst is just 65 rated Davidson and the others are Nova, Fla, VCU, and St Bonnies. Hawks face a tough matchup at St Bonaventure and a loss there would mean they would be swept by the Bonnies. They should be able to sustain a loss there but it would also mean they can't slip up in the finale vs Duquense and might need one win in the A10 tourney. A win over the Bonnies and you can safely place them in the dance.
7. (57) MICHIGAN 19-10: Wolverines poor mark vs rpi top 100 at just 3-10 is really dogging them. 3 wins vs top 100 is atrocious for a bubble team. Yet the 3 wins were all top 50 and they are real good ones...Maryland, Purdue, and Texas. Note that the losses are to bubbles UConn and Ohio State. To their credit there are no losses outside the rpi top 100. There are things on their resume that gives the committee reason to leave them out if they so wish. Their failure to pick up a much needed quality win at Wisconsin means that beating Iowa becomes extremely important. Beating Iowa would lock them, another loss and a Big 10 tourney win becomes mandatory or they leave their fate up to the bubble or schools like Ohio State that could make a run and take their spot.
8. (44) PROVIDENCE 20-9: Friars resume keeps looking weaker and weaker as we head to Selection Sunday. PC sustained another loss to Seton Hall who now with the Xavier win is at lock status. They've lost 5 of 7 and their marks against top 50 rpi are down to just 2-6 vs top 50 and 6-6 vs top 100 and have a hideous loss to De Paul. Yes the win over Villanova keeps giving and Arizona was a solid non conference but besides that its just the sweep over Butler that sticks out. However its those two wins that at least give them the edge over the Bulldogs heading forward. The good news for PC is that their last two games are Creighton and SJU and very winnable, the bad news is neither of those games give them a chance to move the needle. Still if they can win those games they at least tread water on the good side of the bubble but the thinking is that they need one Big East tourney win to feel secure.
9. (53) CONNECTICUT 20-9: The Huskies continue to underachieve in the AAC and Sunday's home loss to Houston dropped them to 6th place in the league standings. Sure the AAC tourney is wide open and the Huskies are going to have to have a solid tournament performance given 5 AAC bubbles schools all very close to one another resume wise. The conference will get 3 perhaps 4 if they are lucky. Its not good that UConn was swept by both Temple and Cincinnati plus suffered a loss to bubbles Cuse and Gonzaga. At just 3-2 vs top 50 and 6-9 vs top 100, a win at SMU might be mandatory at this juncture to keep them in the field. Yes they won at Texas and beat Michigan and did beat SMU earlier those are great wins but that AAC mark is troublesome.
10. (39) SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 19-10: Losers of 5 of 6, the Trojans have basically undone all the good they built up on the resume. That 10-10 mark vs top 100 is the best you will find here but that might be skewed by the Pac 12's strange manipulation this year of the rpi. A closer look sees the Trojans are just 3-6 vs the top 50 with wins over Colorado, Arizona, and Wichita State. They did beat Yale but split with Monmouth. That 4-9 road/neutral mark doesn't do any favors for them. Given their recent collapse we need to see more quality wins here. They get their shot with home games against the Oregon schools...and OSU beat them already this year. USC might not have to win both but beating OSU is probably mandatory at this point to keep them and they better have a nice run in the Pac 12 tourney.
11. (48) VANDERBILT 18-11: The Commodores had the best week ever. Wins at Florida and over Kentucky shot them lock a rocket onto the good side of the bubble Now 10-6 in the SEC, Vandy completed a key season sweep over Florida and note a win over Alabama in their only meeting as well as a win over Texas A&M. While their best OOC is only Stony Brook the 5-7 mark vs top 50 is solid as is the 7-9 mark vs top 100. The wins this week help neutralize those bad losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State. Vandy has a big road trip to Texas A&M where a win could secure a bid before the SEC tourney. Before that is a must win vs Tennessee. Have to keep finishing strong to stay on this good side of the bubble with Florida and Bama lurking right behind them.
12. (49) ALABAMA 17-11: Unfortunately for the Tide, last weeks game at Kentucky represented their last shot at picking up another quality win before the SEC tourney. Bama lost by 25 and they didn't look too good in a win over Auburn over the weekend. Its mandatory they win out by taking care of Arkansas and winning at Georgia. With two bad losses already to Auburn and Miss St, they can't sustain another on their resume. 5-7 vs top 50 is solid..they did some nice things beating Notre Dame, Florida, So Carolina, A&M,and Wichita State but they are just 6-9 vs top 100 and just 8-8 in the SEC. May need to reach at least the SEC semis to hold on to this spot here and hope Florida continues to implode.
13. (45) FLORIDA 17-12: Gators fortunes appear to fading and they face a must win vs Kentucky this week. Just 2-9 vs top 50...yes those are two very good wins, St Joes and WVU but that's not going to cut it when you have 12 losses and possibly staring down as many as 14 heading into selection sunday. Losers of 3 in a row and 5 of 7, the Vandy loss hurt but its the loss to reeling LSU that should have them worried as should the 0-6 mark vs the top 5 in the SEC. In fairness the SOS is 10 and there is just one loss outside the rpi top 100.This is a school heading quickly out of the field barring a miraculous turn around in the SEC tournament.
14. (52) CINCINNATI 21-8: Bearcats staying afloat in a crowded AAC bubble field and its going to be this week that decides their fate. A tricky road game at surging Houston and a home game with NCAA banned SMU provide opportunity along with danger. Must must must win them both at this point. The SOS of 101 and the fact that 15 of their 21 wins are coming from plus 150 rpi school is a major problem for the Bearcats. Just 2-4 vs top 50 rpi doesn't cut it...VCU and Tulsa. Digging deeper the sweep over UConn, GW and Houston make for an okay 6-7 mark vs top 100.They were swept by Temple, split with Tulsa, and lost to Butler. Going to need some more beef on this resume for sure.
15. (28) OREGON STATE 16-10: Could the Beavers' long NCAA drought be over? Not quite yet, still work to do. OSU has a trip to USC/UCLA this week and a road sweep would be enough. While the 16-10 mark seems middling, the overall rpi number has improved considerably buoyed by a SOS of 6. 6-7 vs top 50 and 9-10 vs top 100 appear more than enough. Wins over Tulsa, Oregon, Cal, USC, Utah, and Colorado but note all at home. The 5-7 road mark is the only blemish and with the road games this week the Beavers must step it up.
OUT
16. (54) BUTLER 19-9: Bulldogs stayed alive by escaping Georgetown with a win and now face a must win situation against Seton Hall at home this week. Butler already owns a win over The Hall and a second would give them a much needed quality win to keep them alive going into the Big East tourney. Just 2-7 vs rpi top 50 with the other win over Purude, they simply need more to vault them. Wins over Temple and at Cincy do help but still the mark vs top 100 is just 5-8. Just 8-8 in the Big East and a middling SOS of 88, even with a win over SHU they may need a trip to the Big East finals
17. (66) GONZAGA 22-7: Zags in some trouble as an at large so they might just have to win the WCC tourney. They do not have a top 50 rpi win going 0-5 losing to the likes of SMU, Arizona, and Texas A&M and getting swept by St Marys. Dawgs played the usual tough non conference slate but only have wins over UConn and Washington to show for it. Not sure if that's enough this season. The worst loss is to BYU a team they also beat so there are no real bad losses here but not sure how the selection committee can award a bid over to a school who has a bubble team to count on as its best win. They wont even be in consideration if they don't beat Portland to close the season then make the WCC finals.
18. (42) TULSA 19-10: Just as the Golden Hurricane were playing their way into the field, it all came crashing down with a bad loss at Memphis yesterday. That makes two bad losses to go along with an early season loss to Oral Roberts. In a crowded American bubble field, its those kind of losses that give pause to the selection committee. Tulsa owns a big win over SMU but split with all the 4 bubbles in league...Temple, Cincy, UConn, and Houston...the big OOC win was Wichita State. 2-4 vs top 50 is rather meh, while the 7-8 vs top 100 is okay and the SOS is a solid 39..an advantage over Cincy but unlike UConn and Cincy, Tulsa does not get another shot at a top 50 win as they finish with USF. A trip to the AAC finals seems necessary.
19. (34) SAINT BONAVENTURE 20-7: If not for a costly loss to La Salle, the Bonnies would be riding a nine game win streak and be tied for first in the A10. Certainly winning 8 of 9 isn't so bad but its the unthinkable loss to 232 rated La Salle that is keeping them out of the NCAA tourney. SBU also has a bad loss to Duquense and with just a 2-2 mark vs rpi top 50 and a SOS of 87, at this stage the Bonnies need to prove themselves beyond the strong overall rpi at 34. Wins at Dayton and at SJU are very good but their best non conference win was Ohio. They lost to bubble Syracuse and that Siena win might be considered a bad loss. Next up is St Joe's at home and win there is mandatory and would keep them in the running and provided a strong A10 tourney..perhaps having to make the final they could sneak in as one of the last at larges.
20. (56) GEORGE WASHINGTON 21-8: The Colonials had a chance to make a statement by beating VCU over the weekend but came up short and now clearly are in big trouble. This is a team that has huge non conference wins over Virginia and Seton Hall but unfortunately even with the win at VCU failed to do enough in league to put themselves in a good position heading into the A10 tourney. Somewhat penalized by the unbalanced A10 schedule, they only got Dayton, St Joes, and St Bonnies once and lost them all. 3-4 vs top 50 but just 4-5 vs the top 100. The big red flag are the bad losses Richmond, at De Paul and at St Louis. That's just too many for a school that wasn't able to garner enough quality league wins. Going to need a run to the finals of the A10 to have a serious shot.
21. (73) OHIO STATE 19-11: Buckeyes are not a serious bubble team just yet but the win over Iowa pulled them off life support at least for a few days. Next up will be a trip to Michigan State where they face a must win situation or they will just have to win the Big 10 tourney to get in. Yes the Iowa win was nice but the nitty gritty here is ugly. Just 2-7 vs the top 50 with the other win Kentucky, the Buckeyes are just 3-8 vs the top 100 with Michigan being the other win. A whopping 16 of their 19 wins vs plus rpi 100 and 7 of those to plus 200. There are bad losses to Texas Arlington, Memphis and La Tech. Yet could OSU be the first Big 10 school to miss the tournament despite going 11-7? Will the Michigan State win even be enough? Probably not..still would need another quality win to add to it. Longshot for sure.
22. (78) HOUSTON 21-8: Cougars float onto the bubble list after an unlikely win at UConn. Cougars split against Tulsa/Temple/UConn and but their best win is SMU. They are behind the other AAC bubbles as some bad losses to Rhody, Grand Canyone and USF really smart, but they get Cincy at home this week in a win that could put them in a better spot heading into the AAC tourney. 5-6 vs rpi 100 going to need a few more there...Can they get in if they make the finals, it would mean leapfrogging another AAC bubble but Cougars have beaten these teams before, they are a viable contender to win the tourney.
23. (85) LOUISIANA STATE 17-12: I hesitate to bring LSU back from the dead after their loss to Arkansas, which marked their 6th loss to a plus 100 rpi school BUT lets keep them alive as a walking dead zombie after their surprise win over Florida. Those 6 losses are virtually impossible to overcome but LSU still has a game at Kentucky left which could add to their win total which at 5-5 vs top 50 and 7-6 vs top 100 isn't all that shabby. They already own wins over Kentucky, Florida, A&M and road wins at Vandy and Bama. So suppose they win at Kentucky, beat Missouri, get a couple of more quality wins to make the SEC final...then maybe just maybe they can do the impossible. However one single loss before the SEC finals and they are done..finished,,kaput.
24. (72) GEORGIA TECH 17-12: The Yellowjackets flickering hopes rest on winning at Louisville and then beating Pitt at home. It would get them 9-9 in the ACC and help out the sagging 3-7 vs top 50 and 4-10 vs top 100 mark. Wins over VCU, Notre Dame and Virginia just not enough but with the above two, they would certainly be worth a look in the very small bubble this year. Losses to the likes of Clemson, Va Tech, and E Tennessee State were missteps that if reversed might have them closing to the last in spot.
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES
PAC 12: 7
BIG 10: 7
ACC: 7
BIG 12: 7
SEC: 6
BIG EAST: 4
AAC: 3
A10: 3
LAST 4 IN: OREGON STATE, CINCINNATI, FLORIDA, ALABAMA
LAST 4 OUT: BUTLER, GONZAGA, TULSA, SAINT BONAVENTURE
Projected Auto Bids
AMERICA EAST: Stony Brook
AMERICAN: Temple
ACC: North Carolina
ATLANTIC SUN: North Florida
ATLANTIC TEN: Virginia Commonwealth
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: Weber State
BIG SOUTH: High Point
BIG 10: Indiana
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG WEST: Hawaii
COLONIAL: Hofstra
CUSA: Alabama-Birmingham
HORIZON: Valparaiso
IVY: Princeton
MAAC: Monmouth
MIDAMERICAN: Akron
MEAC: Hampton
MVC: Wichita State
MWC: San Diego State
NORTHEAST: Wagner
OHIO VALLEY: Belmont
PAC 12: Oregon
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SEC: Texas A&M
SOUTHERN: Chattanooga
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F Austin
SUN BELT: Arkansas Little Rock
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: Indiana Purdue Forth Worth
WAC: New Mexico State
WCC: St Mary's
Projected At Large Locks: Miami, Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Dayton, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, Xavier, Seton Hall, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Utah, Arizona, California.
32 autobids, 21 at large locks = 53 bids accounted for...there are 24 schools competing for 15 bids. Here is the pecking order.....
IN
1. (23) TEXAS TECH 18-10: Red Raiders look good to go, just going to play it conservative and hold off locking them until they get one more win most likely at home vs Kansas State or the bubble plays itself out. No harm done in a loss to Kansas which snapped their 5 game win streak but boosted their SOS to #1 in the country. Looks like they have all the required wins to feel safe....Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas, Iowa State and sneaky good OOC wins over Hawaii, Ark-Little Rock, and San Diego St. 6 wins vs the rpi top 50 is the most you will find on the bubble. Send them in.
2. (36) SOUTH CAROLINA 22-6: Gamecocks are not quite a lock just yet because of a sudden penchant for bad losses. Saturday's loss to Mississippi State was their third loss to a plus 100 rpi school in the past 5 weeks. Still there is so much good here...a 5-2 mark vs top 50 and 8-3 vs top 100 with wins over Tulsa, Vandy, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Florida. The SEC has two locks but 5 bubble teams battling it out for probably 3 spots. SC has some separation from the others but cannot afford anymore trip ups. A home tilt against Georgia and at Arkansas remain and wins in both lock them. Are they safe with a split? Probably but lose both and they are in serious trouble.
3. (37) PITTSBURGH 19-8: Panthers' backs were up against the wall following a tough home loss to Louisville, but they responded with a resounding win over Duke that finally gave them another quality win to go along with their Notre Dame victory. Yes Pitt is only 2-6 vs the rpi top 50 which is rather unimpressive but the feeling is that they have done enough if you toss in the sweep over Syracuse and the 9-7 ACC mark. As long they can avoid the slip up at Virginia Tech or at Georgia Tech they should be fine. 7-6 vs top 100 and a SOS of 34 are better than most on this list.
4. (51) SYRACUSE 19-10: Orange have some really nice wins on this resume....at Duke, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, and St Bonaventure get them to 4-7 vs top 50 and throw in a handy win over fellow bubble UConn as they are 7-7 vs top 100. Boeheim's suspension figures to be factored in and that's when Cuse dropped that hideous game to St Johns and another shaky one to Georgetown. Those two blemishes figure to be overlooked as long as Cuse can find a way to win one more going forward. They finish with two toughies...at UNC and at longshot bubble Fla State so that win may not come until ACC tourney time but the Orange would do themselves well to beat the Seminoles
5. (29) COLORADO 20-9: Following a disasterous week against the LA schools, the Buffaloes bounced back with a key win over Arizona which pushed their mark to 4-7 vs top 50 and 9-9 vs top 100. Wins over Oregon, Cal, Oreg St, and BYU as well. They have no bad losses outside the top 100 and that helps an otherwise solid yet unspectular resume. The Pac 10 bubble field is sorting itself out and Colorado can make it academic with a win at Utah. If not one win the Pac 12 tourney should not, if not they risk floating to the last 4 in/last 4 out grouping.
6. (26) SAINT JOSEPH'S 24-5: Hawks of course are a legit contender to win the A-10 tourney but they have the strongest case of the 3 A10 bubbles. 2-4 vs top 50 and 5-5 vs top 100 is solid for a midmajor. Besides the gaudy overall mark, the Hawks boast wins over Princeton, Dayton, GW, and at Temple. A look at the 5 losses sees the worst is just 65 rated Davidson and the others are Nova, Fla, VCU, and St Bonnies. Hawks face a tough matchup at St Bonaventure and a loss there would mean they would be swept by the Bonnies. They should be able to sustain a loss there but it would also mean they can't slip up in the finale vs Duquense and might need one win in the A10 tourney. A win over the Bonnies and you can safely place them in the dance.
7. (57) MICHIGAN 19-10: Wolverines poor mark vs rpi top 100 at just 3-10 is really dogging them. 3 wins vs top 100 is atrocious for a bubble team. Yet the 3 wins were all top 50 and they are real good ones...Maryland, Purdue, and Texas. Note that the losses are to bubbles UConn and Ohio State. To their credit there are no losses outside the rpi top 100. There are things on their resume that gives the committee reason to leave them out if they so wish. Their failure to pick up a much needed quality win at Wisconsin means that beating Iowa becomes extremely important. Beating Iowa would lock them, another loss and a Big 10 tourney win becomes mandatory or they leave their fate up to the bubble or schools like Ohio State that could make a run and take their spot.
8. (44) PROVIDENCE 20-9: Friars resume keeps looking weaker and weaker as we head to Selection Sunday. PC sustained another loss to Seton Hall who now with the Xavier win is at lock status. They've lost 5 of 7 and their marks against top 50 rpi are down to just 2-6 vs top 50 and 6-6 vs top 100 and have a hideous loss to De Paul. Yes the win over Villanova keeps giving and Arizona was a solid non conference but besides that its just the sweep over Butler that sticks out. However its those two wins that at least give them the edge over the Bulldogs heading forward. The good news for PC is that their last two games are Creighton and SJU and very winnable, the bad news is neither of those games give them a chance to move the needle. Still if they can win those games they at least tread water on the good side of the bubble but the thinking is that they need one Big East tourney win to feel secure.
9. (53) CONNECTICUT 20-9: The Huskies continue to underachieve in the AAC and Sunday's home loss to Houston dropped them to 6th place in the league standings. Sure the AAC tourney is wide open and the Huskies are going to have to have a solid tournament performance given 5 AAC bubbles schools all very close to one another resume wise. The conference will get 3 perhaps 4 if they are lucky. Its not good that UConn was swept by both Temple and Cincinnati plus suffered a loss to bubbles Cuse and Gonzaga. At just 3-2 vs top 50 and 6-9 vs top 100, a win at SMU might be mandatory at this juncture to keep them in the field. Yes they won at Texas and beat Michigan and did beat SMU earlier those are great wins but that AAC mark is troublesome.
10. (39) SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 19-10: Losers of 5 of 6, the Trojans have basically undone all the good they built up on the resume. That 10-10 mark vs top 100 is the best you will find here but that might be skewed by the Pac 12's strange manipulation this year of the rpi. A closer look sees the Trojans are just 3-6 vs the top 50 with wins over Colorado, Arizona, and Wichita State. They did beat Yale but split with Monmouth. That 4-9 road/neutral mark doesn't do any favors for them. Given their recent collapse we need to see more quality wins here. They get their shot with home games against the Oregon schools...and OSU beat them already this year. USC might not have to win both but beating OSU is probably mandatory at this point to keep them and they better have a nice run in the Pac 12 tourney.
11. (48) VANDERBILT 18-11: The Commodores had the best week ever. Wins at Florida and over Kentucky shot them lock a rocket onto the good side of the bubble Now 10-6 in the SEC, Vandy completed a key season sweep over Florida and note a win over Alabama in their only meeting as well as a win over Texas A&M. While their best OOC is only Stony Brook the 5-7 mark vs top 50 is solid as is the 7-9 mark vs top 100. The wins this week help neutralize those bad losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State. Vandy has a big road trip to Texas A&M where a win could secure a bid before the SEC tourney. Before that is a must win vs Tennessee. Have to keep finishing strong to stay on this good side of the bubble with Florida and Bama lurking right behind them.
12. (49) ALABAMA 17-11: Unfortunately for the Tide, last weeks game at Kentucky represented their last shot at picking up another quality win before the SEC tourney. Bama lost by 25 and they didn't look too good in a win over Auburn over the weekend. Its mandatory they win out by taking care of Arkansas and winning at Georgia. With two bad losses already to Auburn and Miss St, they can't sustain another on their resume. 5-7 vs top 50 is solid..they did some nice things beating Notre Dame, Florida, So Carolina, A&M,and Wichita State but they are just 6-9 vs top 100 and just 8-8 in the SEC. May need to reach at least the SEC semis to hold on to this spot here and hope Florida continues to implode.
13. (45) FLORIDA 17-12: Gators fortunes appear to fading and they face a must win vs Kentucky this week. Just 2-9 vs top 50...yes those are two very good wins, St Joes and WVU but that's not going to cut it when you have 12 losses and possibly staring down as many as 14 heading into selection sunday. Losers of 3 in a row and 5 of 7, the Vandy loss hurt but its the loss to reeling LSU that should have them worried as should the 0-6 mark vs the top 5 in the SEC. In fairness the SOS is 10 and there is just one loss outside the rpi top 100.This is a school heading quickly out of the field barring a miraculous turn around in the SEC tournament.
14. (52) CINCINNATI 21-8: Bearcats staying afloat in a crowded AAC bubble field and its going to be this week that decides their fate. A tricky road game at surging Houston and a home game with NCAA banned SMU provide opportunity along with danger. Must must must win them both at this point. The SOS of 101 and the fact that 15 of their 21 wins are coming from plus 150 rpi school is a major problem for the Bearcats. Just 2-4 vs top 50 rpi doesn't cut it...VCU and Tulsa. Digging deeper the sweep over UConn, GW and Houston make for an okay 6-7 mark vs top 100.They were swept by Temple, split with Tulsa, and lost to Butler. Going to need some more beef on this resume for sure.
15. (28) OREGON STATE 16-10: Could the Beavers' long NCAA drought be over? Not quite yet, still work to do. OSU has a trip to USC/UCLA this week and a road sweep would be enough. While the 16-10 mark seems middling, the overall rpi number has improved considerably buoyed by a SOS of 6. 6-7 vs top 50 and 9-10 vs top 100 appear more than enough. Wins over Tulsa, Oregon, Cal, USC, Utah, and Colorado but note all at home. The 5-7 road mark is the only blemish and with the road games this week the Beavers must step it up.
OUT
16. (54) BUTLER 19-9: Bulldogs stayed alive by escaping Georgetown with a win and now face a must win situation against Seton Hall at home this week. Butler already owns a win over The Hall and a second would give them a much needed quality win to keep them alive going into the Big East tourney. Just 2-7 vs rpi top 50 with the other win over Purude, they simply need more to vault them. Wins over Temple and at Cincy do help but still the mark vs top 100 is just 5-8. Just 8-8 in the Big East and a middling SOS of 88, even with a win over SHU they may need a trip to the Big East finals
17. (66) GONZAGA 22-7: Zags in some trouble as an at large so they might just have to win the WCC tourney. They do not have a top 50 rpi win going 0-5 losing to the likes of SMU, Arizona, and Texas A&M and getting swept by St Marys. Dawgs played the usual tough non conference slate but only have wins over UConn and Washington to show for it. Not sure if that's enough this season. The worst loss is to BYU a team they also beat so there are no real bad losses here but not sure how the selection committee can award a bid over to a school who has a bubble team to count on as its best win. They wont even be in consideration if they don't beat Portland to close the season then make the WCC finals.
18. (42) TULSA 19-10: Just as the Golden Hurricane were playing their way into the field, it all came crashing down with a bad loss at Memphis yesterday. That makes two bad losses to go along with an early season loss to Oral Roberts. In a crowded American bubble field, its those kind of losses that give pause to the selection committee. Tulsa owns a big win over SMU but split with all the 4 bubbles in league...Temple, Cincy, UConn, and Houston...the big OOC win was Wichita State. 2-4 vs top 50 is rather meh, while the 7-8 vs top 100 is okay and the SOS is a solid 39..an advantage over Cincy but unlike UConn and Cincy, Tulsa does not get another shot at a top 50 win as they finish with USF. A trip to the AAC finals seems necessary.
19. (34) SAINT BONAVENTURE 20-7: If not for a costly loss to La Salle, the Bonnies would be riding a nine game win streak and be tied for first in the A10. Certainly winning 8 of 9 isn't so bad but its the unthinkable loss to 232 rated La Salle that is keeping them out of the NCAA tourney. SBU also has a bad loss to Duquense and with just a 2-2 mark vs rpi top 50 and a SOS of 87, at this stage the Bonnies need to prove themselves beyond the strong overall rpi at 34. Wins at Dayton and at SJU are very good but their best non conference win was Ohio. They lost to bubble Syracuse and that Siena win might be considered a bad loss. Next up is St Joe's at home and win there is mandatory and would keep them in the running and provided a strong A10 tourney..perhaps having to make the final they could sneak in as one of the last at larges.
20. (56) GEORGE WASHINGTON 21-8: The Colonials had a chance to make a statement by beating VCU over the weekend but came up short and now clearly are in big trouble. This is a team that has huge non conference wins over Virginia and Seton Hall but unfortunately even with the win at VCU failed to do enough in league to put themselves in a good position heading into the A10 tourney. Somewhat penalized by the unbalanced A10 schedule, they only got Dayton, St Joes, and St Bonnies once and lost them all. 3-4 vs top 50 but just 4-5 vs the top 100. The big red flag are the bad losses Richmond, at De Paul and at St Louis. That's just too many for a school that wasn't able to garner enough quality league wins. Going to need a run to the finals of the A10 to have a serious shot.
21. (73) OHIO STATE 19-11: Buckeyes are not a serious bubble team just yet but the win over Iowa pulled them off life support at least for a few days. Next up will be a trip to Michigan State where they face a must win situation or they will just have to win the Big 10 tourney to get in. Yes the Iowa win was nice but the nitty gritty here is ugly. Just 2-7 vs the top 50 with the other win Kentucky, the Buckeyes are just 3-8 vs the top 100 with Michigan being the other win. A whopping 16 of their 19 wins vs plus rpi 100 and 7 of those to plus 200. There are bad losses to Texas Arlington, Memphis and La Tech. Yet could OSU be the first Big 10 school to miss the tournament despite going 11-7? Will the Michigan State win even be enough? Probably not..still would need another quality win to add to it. Longshot for sure.
22. (78) HOUSTON 21-8: Cougars float onto the bubble list after an unlikely win at UConn. Cougars split against Tulsa/Temple/UConn and but their best win is SMU. They are behind the other AAC bubbles as some bad losses to Rhody, Grand Canyone and USF really smart, but they get Cincy at home this week in a win that could put them in a better spot heading into the AAC tourney. 5-6 vs rpi 100 going to need a few more there...Can they get in if they make the finals, it would mean leapfrogging another AAC bubble but Cougars have beaten these teams before, they are a viable contender to win the tourney.
23. (85) LOUISIANA STATE 17-12: I hesitate to bring LSU back from the dead after their loss to Arkansas, which marked their 6th loss to a plus 100 rpi school BUT lets keep them alive as a walking dead zombie after their surprise win over Florida. Those 6 losses are virtually impossible to overcome but LSU still has a game at Kentucky left which could add to their win total which at 5-5 vs top 50 and 7-6 vs top 100 isn't all that shabby. They already own wins over Kentucky, Florida, A&M and road wins at Vandy and Bama. So suppose they win at Kentucky, beat Missouri, get a couple of more quality wins to make the SEC final...then maybe just maybe they can do the impossible. However one single loss before the SEC finals and they are done..finished,,kaput.
24. (72) GEORGIA TECH 17-12: The Yellowjackets flickering hopes rest on winning at Louisville and then beating Pitt at home. It would get them 9-9 in the ACC and help out the sagging 3-7 vs top 50 and 4-10 vs top 100 mark. Wins over VCU, Notre Dame and Virginia just not enough but with the above two, they would certainly be worth a look in the very small bubble this year. Losses to the likes of Clemson, Va Tech, and E Tennessee State were missteps that if reversed might have them closing to the last in spot.
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES
PAC 12: 7
BIG 10: 7
ACC: 7
BIG 12: 7
SEC: 6
BIG EAST: 4
AAC: 3
A10: 3
LAST 4 IN: OREGON STATE, CINCINNATI, FLORIDA, ALABAMA
LAST 4 OUT: BUTLER, GONZAGA, TULSA, SAINT BONAVENTURE
