That time again. First outlook will just breakdown the NCAA situation by conference. Full pecking order will not start until next week. RPI numbers from 2/21
One bid conferences
AMERICA EAST: Stony Brook
ATLANTIC SUN: North Florida
BIG SKY: Weber State
BIG SOUTH: Winthrop
BIG WEST: Hawaii
COLONIAL: North Carolina Wilmington
CUSA: Alabama-Birmingham
HORIZON: Valparaiso
IVY: Princeton
MAAC: Monmouth
MIDAMERICAN: Akron
MEAC: Hampton
MVC: Wichita State
MWC: San Diego State
NORTHEAST: Wagner
OHIO VALLEY: Belmont
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SOUTHERN: Chattanooga
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F Austin
SUN BELT: Arkansas Little Rock
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: Indiana Purdue Forth Worth
WAC: New Mexico State
Stony Brook, Princeton, Monmouth, San Diego State, Wichita State, and Arkansas Little Rock will be considered as at large schools if they do not win their conference tournaments
AAC
Autobid: Temple
BUBBLE
(38) CONNECTICUT 19-8: Even with the weekend loss to Cincy, the Huskies seem to have done enough as long as they can avoid any major slip ups. Of course a win at SMU would help bolster just that 3-2 mark vs top 50 rpi but overall the resume is solid. 7-8 vs top 100 rpi, SOS of 40. They won at Texas and beat bubbles Michigan and Ohio State. In league their best wins are Tulsa and SMU and lost their only matchup with Cincy. Getting swept by Temple hurt their AAC standing but overall when your worst loss is Gonzaga at rpi 68, things are looking good
(45) TULSA 18-9: Got big wins over Cincy and SMU in the past 10 days to vault them near the bubble. Just 2-5 vs top 50 and 6-8 vs top 100 they simply are going to have to keep winning. Hurricanes have some nice things on the resume, the win over Wichita State and a SOS of 36, Its just that they will need more and that means taking care of league leading Temple and then making a run probably to the AAC finals. In a AAC bubble battle with Cincy/Temple/UConn, Tulsa comes in 4th and this league isn't getting 4 bids.
(56) CINCINNATI 20-8: SOS seems to be the biggest issue here. Rated at 100 with a non conference SOS of 179, 14 of Cincy's 20 wins have come to 150 plus rated RPI schools and even one bad loss to Memphis outside the 150. How much is that going to be weigh against the good. Cincy swept UConn, beat A10 bubbles GW and VCU and split with Tulsa. However then you have the loss to bubble Butler and getting swept by Temple. the 5-4 vs top 50 and 6-7 vs top 100 are solid enough but I think Cincy may find itself hovering around the last 4 in/last 4 out line regardless of whether they beat SMU in the season finale
ATLANTIC 10
Autobid: Virginia Commonwealth
IN: Dayton
BUBBLE
(28) SAINT JOSEPH'S 22-5: Hawks fell out of first with a surprising loss to Davidson over the weekend. Its not a bad loss per se as Davidson is 59 in the rpi but they aren't a NCAA team and with a crowded A10 bubble picture, the Hawks blew a chance at getting some separation. Still the overall record and rpi are strengths. A SOS of 28, wins over Princeton and Temple, in league wins over GW and Dayton. They will get another crack at St Bona in their last 4, their only shot at picking another quality win to boost the 3-4 vs top 50 and 4-5 vs to top 100 before the A10 tourney. If they get that one and avoid losing to the dregs of the league they will be locked and loaded. If not then they have a bit of work to do in the A10 tourney.
(34) SAINT BONAVENTURE 18-7: Bonnies recovered from a resume killing loss to La Salle by simply going into Dayton and winning. That makes two marquee road wins over the top 2 in the A10 as they knocked SJU off last month. That alone keeps them in the game however besides the win over GW, their next best win is Ohio. 3-2 vs top 50 and 5-5 vs top 100. Unfortunately for them their last 4 provides only one more opportunity at a quality win..another meeting with St Joes. Bonnies need to win that plus take care of business. Thinking here is that they will need a very deep A10 run to land in the field.
(43) GEORGE WASHINGTON 20-7: Colonials in a tough spot because they went 0-3 vs the top 3 in the A10 and the problem is they only faced them once and are suffering from the unbalanced scheduling in the A10. In league they play they boast a win at VCU which isn't as impressive as in the Shaka Smart years. They get another crack at VCU in the next 4 but like SBU, its their only opportunity to pick up a quality win. OOC they do have that really impressive win over Virginia and another good one over NCAA likely Seton Hall but still that only puts them at 3-3 vs top 50 and just 4 top 100 wins. Two costly losses to De Paul and St Louis stick out. Another needing a strong run in the A10 tourney.
ACC
Autobid: North Carolina
IN: Virginia, Miami, Duke, Notre Dame
BUBBLE
(35) PITTSBURGH 18-7: Big win for the Panthers yesterday at the Carrier Dome to complete a season sweep of the Orange. Unfortunately Pitt has just one top 50 win over Notre Dame and their biggest non conference win is Davidson so they might do themselves well to pick up a quality win this week when Duke and Louisville visit the Pete. The 7-7 mark vs top 100 is going to keep them around no matter what and its true there is no loss outside the rpi top 100 but much like last year this resume is rather bland.
(52) SYRACUSE 18-10: The Boeheim suspension will play a factor here for sure and its stunning that the suspension will help not hurt as their poor performance without him which included a hideous loss to St Johns and a lost to Georgetown. Still Cuse has some nice things on this resume...5-7 vs top 50/7-9 vs top 100. They beat St Bonaventure, UConn and Texas A&M out of the conference. Its league play with just the win at Duke which is sketchy as they floundered against UNC, Miami, Louisville, Virginia, and note getting swept by Pitt. The last 3 are going to be very important...NC State is a must win as is the FSU road game...but the biggie is UNC at home. Win that and they are in lock stock and barrel. Lose that or any of those other 2 and they will need a deep ACC run to feel secure.
(70) GEORGIA TECH 15-12: Saturday's win over Notre Dame keeps the Yellowjackets slim hopes alive but they simply need to win out which would include wins over Louisville and at Pitt and then probably make the ACC semis. They will need all that to overcome the poor overall mark, just 3-7 vs top 50 and 5-10 vs top 100, and the poor 4-7 road/neutral mark...and lets not mention the 5-9 ACC mark. The SOS if 14 and is nice they beat Virgina and VCU but that's the best we can say right now.
(72) FLORIDA STATE 16-11: Another ACC bubble in serious trouble. Just 6-9 in the ACC, FSU matches GT with the UVA and VCU wins but adds in a win at Florida. Still that puts them at just 3-6 vs top 50...7-10 vs top 100. Note losses to Cuse and Ga Tech in their only meetings. The last 3 make or break them...at Duke, Notre Dame, and Cuse. Win all 3 and punch their ticket. Win 2 and they have a legit shot with some quality ACC tourney wins. Win 1 or none and they will have to win the ACC tourney
(99) CLEMSON 16-11: Despite the poor overall rpi, there are some nice things here. Wins over Miami, Louisville, Duke and Pitt. Also beat Cuse, Ga Tech, and FSU. In league 9-6 is very solid. Unfortunately the Tigers didn't schedule all that tough OOC with a SOS of 107 and their best win there was Wofford. Two really bad losses to UMass and Minnesota stuck out like sore thumbs as does the 3-8 road mark, if not for that stuff they could feel pretty good about themselves. Now the Tigers must win the last 3 including a home matchup with Virginia...if they do that it will be 12-6 in ACC and add to the 4-5 vs top 50 and 7-8 vs top 100 and I think they have a very strong case to be on the right side of the bubble before the ACC tourney.
BIG EAST
Autobid: Villanova
IN: Xavier
BUBBLE
(37) PROVIDENCE 19-8: Friars seem to be in a freefall with 4 losses in their last 5 including a damaging one to De Paul. Its going to come down to whether they can right the ship in the stretch. Next up is a matchup at SHU a school who beat the Friars earlier and then a reasonable finish with home games to Creighton and De Paul followed by a road tilt at St Johns. Anything less than 3-1 will put them smack on the bubble heading into what figures to be an unpredictable Big East tournament. That win over Nova who could be a #1 seed is a gift that will keep giving and the win over Arizona is another impressive one. . 8-5 vs top 100 includes a sweep over fellow bubble Butler and the other nitty gritty like road/neutral 8-4 and SOS of 46 are all solid enough. This is a school that should get in
(41) SETON HALL 19-7: Pirates averted what could have been a disasterous loss at St Johns. A home game with Providence followed by another with Xavier are two opportunities for SHU to punch their dance ticket. A win in either of those two or at Butler should be enough. However they also cannot afford to go 0-3 either in these games. A paltry 1-4 vs top 50 that over Providence, the top 100 mark is better at 7-7 including wins over Wichita State, Georgia, Ole Miss and Creighton. They don't have a loss outside the top 100 (Long Beach St at 97 is their worst. Will the Pirates finally avoided their usual late season collapse under Willard?
(59) BUTLER 18-9: Bulldogs simply do not have a large margin of error to go dancing. The biggest thing that sticks out here is the 0-6 mark vs Nova, Xavier, and PC. Butler is in desperate need of another quality win in league. They only have that win at SHU and they will have to beat them again down the stretch while also avoiding slipups to Marquette and at Georgetown. OOC they put together some nice stuff..wins over Purdue, Temple and Cincy but the 2-7 vs top 50 and 6-8 vs top 50 is wobbly. Going to be tough for the Big East to get 5 bids unless the conference tourney offers some surprises.
(83) CREIGHTON 17-10: I suppose we can keep the Bluejays here but realistically they need to win out which would include wins at Xavier and at Providence and then a trip to the BE finals. Not likely. They do have wins over Xavier, Butler and SHU but their biggest non conferernce win is only 160 Nebraska and have a really bad loss to Loyola Chicago. 2-6 vs top 50 and 4-9 vs top 100 does not cut it at this point.
BIG 12
Autobid: Kansas
IN: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor Texas
BUBBLE
(25) TEXAS TECH 17-10: Red Raiders making a big push after a woeful January start. Big wins over Baylor, Iowa State and the feather in their cap win over Oklahoma last week has buoyed their profile dramatically. TTU has now notched 6 top 50 wins and are 7-8 vs top 100. They have sneaky good non conference wins over NCAA likelies South Dakota State, Hawaii, and Arkansas Little Rock. The SOS is a sterling #2. Tech looks good to go if they can hold serve at home vs the likes of TCU and KSU, it wont matter what they do in road trips to Kansas and WVU
BIG 10
Autobid: Maryland
IN: Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana,
BUBBLE
(21) PURDUE 21-7: the thinking here is the Boilermakers are good to go. Just keeping them here as a precaution if they drop those tricky last 3..Maryland, at Nebby and Wisky. Seem to have all the required wins..OOC there is Florida and at Pitt, in league they beat Michigan State, at Wisky, Michigan, and Ohio State. Just a lone bad loss at Illinois. 4-4 vs top 50 and 7-6 vs top 100 with a SOS of 41...the top resume among all schools mentioned this NCAA analysis.
(44) WISCONSIN 17-10: Comeback with over Ilinois keeps their late surge for a NCAA bid on track. Badgers have now won 8 of their last 9 negating a poor start to the year which saw losses to the likes of Milwaukee and Western Illinois. Those losses look like they will be overlooked now as long as Wisky can maybe split the last 4 of at Iowa/Mich/at Minn/at Purdue. 4-5 vs top 50 and 8-6 vs top 100 are very good. The big conference wins were at Maryland, Indiana, Michigan State, while OOC extremely solid with wins over VCU, Syracuse and Temple. Oh and the SOS its 5.
(55) MICHIGAN 18-9: Upset bid at Maryland fell short, no shame in that effort but Wolverines still in searching for one or two more quality wins to beef up those middling rpi numbers. Just 3-8 vs top 50 and 4-9 now vs top 100. A good OOC win over Texas and that big win earlier over Maryland but only the Purdue win to go along with that. Note losses to fellow bubbles Ohio State and UConn but its not like they have any bad losses, in fact the loss to OSU rpi 75 is their worst of the season. Last 3 provides an opportunity for them to lock in...Northwestern, at Wisky, and Iowa. Win 2 of those 3 and they are safely in. Win one or less and its work to do in the Big 10 tourney especially if that win isn't Iowa.
(75) OHIO STATE 18-10: The overall mark and the 10-5 conference mark make it seem like the Buckeyes are in good shape. However unpeeling the onion tells another story. Buckeyes are in big trouble. Just one lone top 50 win over Kentucky on a neutral court and they are just 2-7 vs rpi top 100. Those numbers do not get it done. In league OSU has just beaten Michigan and have lost to Indiana and Maryland by 25+. To go along with it are nasty plus 100 losses to Texas Arlington and Louisiana Tech. The road/neutral mark is a shaky 5-6. Well the good news is opportunity awaits. Two games vs Michigan State with a home game vs Iowa sandwiched in the middle. If they can pull out two of these I would say they would have pulled themselves onto the right side of the bubble but its going to take two and not just one. Other than that they will have to make a run very deep maybe to the finals of the Big 10 tourney to muscle their way in this year.
PAC 12
Autobid: Oregon
IN: Utah, Arizona
BUBBLE
(20) CALIFORNIA 19-8: Some sort of RPI phenomena in the Pac 12 this year which has landed 7 schools in the top 40 and 11 in the top 100 which has seemed to inflate everyones rpi nitty gritty. So with that being said that's why for right now we keep Cal on the bubble but firmly in. Just want to see one more quality win in the next 3 which includes UCLA and USC at home and Arizona on the road. Cal is a whopping 11-7 vs rpi top 100 and 5-6 vs top 50. They beat the biggies in league Arizona, Utah, and Oregon all at home. Lets note Cal's struggles on the road just 3-8. OOC the best wins are St Mary's and Davidson. So its going to be interesting to see how the selection committee stacks the many Pac 12 bubble teams against the rest of the country. Cal is by far the best of the bunch
(24) USC 19-8: A little cause for concern for the Trojans as losses in 3 of their last 4 has kept them from locking in. Last night it was a home loss to Utah which would have given them their best win this season. USC is just riding the Colorado and Arizona wins in league as their best. Two nice OOC wins in Wichita State and Monmouth but note they also lost to Monmouth but there is also a sneaky good win over Yale. Again the inflated rpi stuff brings their top 100 to 10-8 which should make them safe but its a tricky last 4. At Stanford and Cal and then the Oregon schools at home. A split should keep things looking solid heading into the Pac 12 tourney.
(33) OREGON STATE 14-10: The overall mark plus the 6-8 league mark are the biggest red flags right now. Beavers simply need to keep winning...preferably sweeping the Washington schools at home and then taking down at least one if not both of USC/UCLA on the road. Its a tough road but even with the solid rpi and SOS of 4, this league isn't getting sub 500 schools in the tourney this year.6-6 vs top 50 and 8-10 vs top 100 needs more. Their best OOC win is Tulsa and best overall is league leading Oregon. Just 1-6 on the road in the Pac 12 stands out, 5-7 overall road/neutral. Going to have to make hay in the Pac 12 tourney.
(36) COLORADO 18-9: Buffs face an almost must win situation hosting Arizona this week and it would do them well to pick off Utah on the road next week. Just not enough here right now to land them in the field. 3-7 vs top 50 and 7-9 vs top 100. Best wins are Oregon and Cal and a win over BYU is solid but not exactly what the selection committee is looking for when looking at whether you have big non conference wins. Bears are yet another Pac 12 school struggling on the road at just 5-8. Lotta work to do.
(66) UCLA 15-12: I hesitate to include the Bruins given their overall mark and 6-8 league mark but lets keep them here because a strong finish which would include a win over the Oregon schools and maybe a Cal is going to bolster the resume. Right now they sit at 4-8 vs top 50 and 8-10 vs top 100. There are some good things here...SOS of 15, wins over Kentucky, Arizona, Gonzaga...you would think a school with those kinds of quality wins would be a lock..well those wins while still good aren't as good as they normally are. Plus the Bruins have some bad losses which hurt them....Washington State and Wake and then we get to another bad road mark at 4-8.
SEC
Autobid: Kentucky
IN: Texas A&M
BUBBLE
(31) SOUTH CAROLINA 21-5: Despite the gaudy win total, the Cocks are no lock yet. Several losses the past few weeks to the likes of Georgia, Tennessee and just recent a hideous loss to Missouri have taken some luster off a strong 14-0 start to the season. They stopped the bleeding with a win over Florida on Saturday which pushed their rpi mark vs top 50 to 4-2 and 9-3 vs top 100. Those numbers are really good. SC has wins over Tulsa, Bama, and Texas A&M as well as a bunch of bubbles like LSU, Vandy and Clemson. Unfortunately the final 4 games do not provide any opportunity for anymore quality wins so its all about them navigating them without slipping up. They could afford maybe one but not two.
(32) FLORIDA 17-10: Gators have played the 9th toughest schedule and it got them wins over the likes of WVU and St Joe's. However its in the SEC where they failed to pick up wins against the top 4 in league losing them all . They do get another crack at home this weekend to Kentucky so that's the kind of win that can vault them in the tourney safely. Otherwise they just need to keep winning against bubbles Vandy and LSU and at least make the SEC semis. The 2-7 mark vs top 50 not good and 7-9 is a bit better as a lot of those come from the likes of the tail end SEC bubbles such as Georgia and Ole Miss. The Gators have to deal with the seemingly endless number of SEC bubble teams so it would behoove them to get some separation from them
(42) ALABAMA 16-10: After putting together such a solid resume that rates above Fla, its a shame that the Tide had to suffer such a disturbing home loss to Mississippi State on Saturday. That loss make its 2 bad losses against SEC dreck and those are the kind of things that they need to avoid in their final 4. They may not have to win at Kentucky but they would do themselves well to sweep the final 3 of Auburn, Arky and at Georgia. No real quality wins there unless they pull the Kentucky shocker but at 4-5 vs the top 50 and 7-8 vs top 100, the Tide would appear to have enough flesh on the resume as long as they avoid any more bad losses. Wins over Wichita State and Notre Dame OOC and A&M, SC and Florida in league are all very solid wins for them.
(62) VANDERBILT 16-11: Commodores were also another victim of Mississippi State last week, a crushing loss that along with Arkansas gives them 2 bad losses this year. Unlike with Bama though they find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble. Just 3-7 vs top 50 and 5-9 vs top 100 is going to need a lot more. Best OOC win was Stony Brook as Vandy went 0-4 OOC against the top 25 rpi. In league wins over Florida, A&M, and Bama at least keep them in the discussion. Its make or break in the final 4 games and there is plenty of opportunity....at Fla, Kentucky, Tennessee and at A&M. Find 3 wins in that group and they will bounce into the field. A split or less and it means fighting it out with the whole bunch in the always unpredictable SEC tournament.
(82) GEORGIA 14-11 and (85) MISSISSIPPI 17-10: bubble hopes on life support. Both need to win out the regular season to move themselves even into the serious discussion
(87) LOUISIANA STATE 16-11: The most talked about school on the bubble this year for many reason. One Ben Simmons, two they are tanking down the stretch and three an injury to Hornsby which might make any discussion about them moot. Tigers have dropped 3 of 4 but none hurt worse than a blowout loss to bottom feeding Tennesse. For LSU its the 4th loss outside the rpi top 100 and even two other losses to Houston and NC State are the kind you want on the resume. Last year LSU was able to overcome those numbers and while this year there are schools like Wisconsin who had some bad losses, those are negated by big wins. LSU doesn't have any non conference wins of note as their best is 138 ranked Oral Roberts. Wins in league over Kentucky, Bama, TexasA&M are good but not enough. Just 3-5 vs top 50 and 6-7 vs top 100, note the awful 3-8 road mark. LSU is in must win mode the rest of the regular sweep meaning they must beat Florida at home and beat Kentucky on the road while also avoiding more bad losses, other than that they most likely need to reach the SEC championship game to get back into the discussion
WCC
Autobid: St Mary's
BUBBLE
(68) GONZAGA 20-7: Dawgs find themselves in unfamiliar territory as their non conference schedule resume just does not have the meat that we are used to seeing from them. There is the win over UConn and Washington as well but they dropped close games to Tex A&M, Arizona, UCLA, and SMU. To their credit all 7 of their losses including the two losses to St Marys and the loss to BYU have all been single digits. First and foremost will be no slip ups the last two..so taking care of business at San Diego and then going to Provo and taking down a desperate BYU. At least would give them another top 100 win which sits at a paltry 2-7 right now. A trip to the WCC finals seems mandatory at this point. The committee may say past history does not matter but when it comes to Gonzaga it does.
(73) BRIGHAM YOUNG 20-8: Cougars always seem to find themselves here in the bubble discussion but this is the one year that they are the longest of longshots. 0-2 vs top 50 and 3-4 vs top 100. The best wins are Gonzaga fighting for their lives themselves and St Marys....you have to go to Belmont to find their biggest OOC win. Plus there are bad losses to Pepperdine, Portland, Harvard. Its just doesn't look like it will happen for them this year. I suppose they can beat Gonzaga and then beat them again and hope a close loss in the WCC finals might get them a look but at that point why not just win the whole WCC tourney
Note that schools like VCU, Temple, and St Marys will receive at large consideration if they don't win their conference tournaments
LAST 4 IN: GEORGE WASHINGTON, BUTLER, GONZAGA, SETON HALL
LAST 4 OUT: COLORADO, TULSA, SAINT BONAVENTURE, FLORIDA STATE
One bid conferences
AMERICA EAST: Stony Brook
ATLANTIC SUN: North Florida
BIG SKY: Weber State
BIG SOUTH: Winthrop
BIG WEST: Hawaii
COLONIAL: North Carolina Wilmington
CUSA: Alabama-Birmingham
HORIZON: Valparaiso
IVY: Princeton
MAAC: Monmouth
MIDAMERICAN: Akron
MEAC: Hampton
MVC: Wichita State
MWC: San Diego State
NORTHEAST: Wagner
OHIO VALLEY: Belmont
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SOUTHERN: Chattanooga
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F Austin
SUN BELT: Arkansas Little Rock
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: Indiana Purdue Forth Worth
WAC: New Mexico State
Stony Brook, Princeton, Monmouth, San Diego State, Wichita State, and Arkansas Little Rock will be considered as at large schools if they do not win their conference tournaments
AAC
Autobid: Temple
BUBBLE
(38) CONNECTICUT 19-8: Even with the weekend loss to Cincy, the Huskies seem to have done enough as long as they can avoid any major slip ups. Of course a win at SMU would help bolster just that 3-2 mark vs top 50 rpi but overall the resume is solid. 7-8 vs top 100 rpi, SOS of 40. They won at Texas and beat bubbles Michigan and Ohio State. In league their best wins are Tulsa and SMU and lost their only matchup with Cincy. Getting swept by Temple hurt their AAC standing but overall when your worst loss is Gonzaga at rpi 68, things are looking good
(45) TULSA 18-9: Got big wins over Cincy and SMU in the past 10 days to vault them near the bubble. Just 2-5 vs top 50 and 6-8 vs top 100 they simply are going to have to keep winning. Hurricanes have some nice things on the resume, the win over Wichita State and a SOS of 36, Its just that they will need more and that means taking care of league leading Temple and then making a run probably to the AAC finals. In a AAC bubble battle with Cincy/Temple/UConn, Tulsa comes in 4th and this league isn't getting 4 bids.
(56) CINCINNATI 20-8: SOS seems to be the biggest issue here. Rated at 100 with a non conference SOS of 179, 14 of Cincy's 20 wins have come to 150 plus rated RPI schools and even one bad loss to Memphis outside the 150. How much is that going to be weigh against the good. Cincy swept UConn, beat A10 bubbles GW and VCU and split with Tulsa. However then you have the loss to bubble Butler and getting swept by Temple. the 5-4 vs top 50 and 6-7 vs top 100 are solid enough but I think Cincy may find itself hovering around the last 4 in/last 4 out line regardless of whether they beat SMU in the season finale
ATLANTIC 10
Autobid: Virginia Commonwealth
IN: Dayton
BUBBLE
(28) SAINT JOSEPH'S 22-5: Hawks fell out of first with a surprising loss to Davidson over the weekend. Its not a bad loss per se as Davidson is 59 in the rpi but they aren't a NCAA team and with a crowded A10 bubble picture, the Hawks blew a chance at getting some separation. Still the overall record and rpi are strengths. A SOS of 28, wins over Princeton and Temple, in league wins over GW and Dayton. They will get another crack at St Bona in their last 4, their only shot at picking another quality win to boost the 3-4 vs top 50 and 4-5 vs to top 100 before the A10 tourney. If they get that one and avoid losing to the dregs of the league they will be locked and loaded. If not then they have a bit of work to do in the A10 tourney.
(34) SAINT BONAVENTURE 18-7: Bonnies recovered from a resume killing loss to La Salle by simply going into Dayton and winning. That makes two marquee road wins over the top 2 in the A10 as they knocked SJU off last month. That alone keeps them in the game however besides the win over GW, their next best win is Ohio. 3-2 vs top 50 and 5-5 vs top 100. Unfortunately for them their last 4 provides only one more opportunity at a quality win..another meeting with St Joes. Bonnies need to win that plus take care of business. Thinking here is that they will need a very deep A10 run to land in the field.
(43) GEORGE WASHINGTON 20-7: Colonials in a tough spot because they went 0-3 vs the top 3 in the A10 and the problem is they only faced them once and are suffering from the unbalanced scheduling in the A10. In league they play they boast a win at VCU which isn't as impressive as in the Shaka Smart years. They get another crack at VCU in the next 4 but like SBU, its their only opportunity to pick up a quality win. OOC they do have that really impressive win over Virginia and another good one over NCAA likely Seton Hall but still that only puts them at 3-3 vs top 50 and just 4 top 100 wins. Two costly losses to De Paul and St Louis stick out. Another needing a strong run in the A10 tourney.
ACC
Autobid: North Carolina
IN: Virginia, Miami, Duke, Notre Dame
BUBBLE
(35) PITTSBURGH 18-7: Big win for the Panthers yesterday at the Carrier Dome to complete a season sweep of the Orange. Unfortunately Pitt has just one top 50 win over Notre Dame and their biggest non conference win is Davidson so they might do themselves well to pick up a quality win this week when Duke and Louisville visit the Pete. The 7-7 mark vs top 100 is going to keep them around no matter what and its true there is no loss outside the rpi top 100 but much like last year this resume is rather bland.
(52) SYRACUSE 18-10: The Boeheim suspension will play a factor here for sure and its stunning that the suspension will help not hurt as their poor performance without him which included a hideous loss to St Johns and a lost to Georgetown. Still Cuse has some nice things on this resume...5-7 vs top 50/7-9 vs top 100. They beat St Bonaventure, UConn and Texas A&M out of the conference. Its league play with just the win at Duke which is sketchy as they floundered against UNC, Miami, Louisville, Virginia, and note getting swept by Pitt. The last 3 are going to be very important...NC State is a must win as is the FSU road game...but the biggie is UNC at home. Win that and they are in lock stock and barrel. Lose that or any of those other 2 and they will need a deep ACC run to feel secure.
(70) GEORGIA TECH 15-12: Saturday's win over Notre Dame keeps the Yellowjackets slim hopes alive but they simply need to win out which would include wins over Louisville and at Pitt and then probably make the ACC semis. They will need all that to overcome the poor overall mark, just 3-7 vs top 50 and 5-10 vs top 100, and the poor 4-7 road/neutral mark...and lets not mention the 5-9 ACC mark. The SOS if 14 and is nice they beat Virgina and VCU but that's the best we can say right now.
(72) FLORIDA STATE 16-11: Another ACC bubble in serious trouble. Just 6-9 in the ACC, FSU matches GT with the UVA and VCU wins but adds in a win at Florida. Still that puts them at just 3-6 vs top 50...7-10 vs top 100. Note losses to Cuse and Ga Tech in their only meetings. The last 3 make or break them...at Duke, Notre Dame, and Cuse. Win all 3 and punch their ticket. Win 2 and they have a legit shot with some quality ACC tourney wins. Win 1 or none and they will have to win the ACC tourney
(99) CLEMSON 16-11: Despite the poor overall rpi, there are some nice things here. Wins over Miami, Louisville, Duke and Pitt. Also beat Cuse, Ga Tech, and FSU. In league 9-6 is very solid. Unfortunately the Tigers didn't schedule all that tough OOC with a SOS of 107 and their best win there was Wofford. Two really bad losses to UMass and Minnesota stuck out like sore thumbs as does the 3-8 road mark, if not for that stuff they could feel pretty good about themselves. Now the Tigers must win the last 3 including a home matchup with Virginia...if they do that it will be 12-6 in ACC and add to the 4-5 vs top 50 and 7-8 vs top 100 and I think they have a very strong case to be on the right side of the bubble before the ACC tourney.
BIG EAST
Autobid: Villanova
IN: Xavier
BUBBLE
(37) PROVIDENCE 19-8: Friars seem to be in a freefall with 4 losses in their last 5 including a damaging one to De Paul. Its going to come down to whether they can right the ship in the stretch. Next up is a matchup at SHU a school who beat the Friars earlier and then a reasonable finish with home games to Creighton and De Paul followed by a road tilt at St Johns. Anything less than 3-1 will put them smack on the bubble heading into what figures to be an unpredictable Big East tournament. That win over Nova who could be a #1 seed is a gift that will keep giving and the win over Arizona is another impressive one. . 8-5 vs top 100 includes a sweep over fellow bubble Butler and the other nitty gritty like road/neutral 8-4 and SOS of 46 are all solid enough. This is a school that should get in
(41) SETON HALL 19-7: Pirates averted what could have been a disasterous loss at St Johns. A home game with Providence followed by another with Xavier are two opportunities for SHU to punch their dance ticket. A win in either of those two or at Butler should be enough. However they also cannot afford to go 0-3 either in these games. A paltry 1-4 vs top 50 that over Providence, the top 100 mark is better at 7-7 including wins over Wichita State, Georgia, Ole Miss and Creighton. They don't have a loss outside the top 100 (Long Beach St at 97 is their worst. Will the Pirates finally avoided their usual late season collapse under Willard?
(59) BUTLER 18-9: Bulldogs simply do not have a large margin of error to go dancing. The biggest thing that sticks out here is the 0-6 mark vs Nova, Xavier, and PC. Butler is in desperate need of another quality win in league. They only have that win at SHU and they will have to beat them again down the stretch while also avoiding slipups to Marquette and at Georgetown. OOC they put together some nice stuff..wins over Purdue, Temple and Cincy but the 2-7 vs top 50 and 6-8 vs top 50 is wobbly. Going to be tough for the Big East to get 5 bids unless the conference tourney offers some surprises.
(83) CREIGHTON 17-10: I suppose we can keep the Bluejays here but realistically they need to win out which would include wins at Xavier and at Providence and then a trip to the BE finals. Not likely. They do have wins over Xavier, Butler and SHU but their biggest non conferernce win is only 160 Nebraska and have a really bad loss to Loyola Chicago. 2-6 vs top 50 and 4-9 vs top 100 does not cut it at this point.
BIG 12
Autobid: Kansas
IN: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor Texas
BUBBLE
(25) TEXAS TECH 17-10: Red Raiders making a big push after a woeful January start. Big wins over Baylor, Iowa State and the feather in their cap win over Oklahoma last week has buoyed their profile dramatically. TTU has now notched 6 top 50 wins and are 7-8 vs top 100. They have sneaky good non conference wins over NCAA likelies South Dakota State, Hawaii, and Arkansas Little Rock. The SOS is a sterling #2. Tech looks good to go if they can hold serve at home vs the likes of TCU and KSU, it wont matter what they do in road trips to Kansas and WVU
BIG 10
Autobid: Maryland
IN: Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana,
BUBBLE
(21) PURDUE 21-7: the thinking here is the Boilermakers are good to go. Just keeping them here as a precaution if they drop those tricky last 3..Maryland, at Nebby and Wisky. Seem to have all the required wins..OOC there is Florida and at Pitt, in league they beat Michigan State, at Wisky, Michigan, and Ohio State. Just a lone bad loss at Illinois. 4-4 vs top 50 and 7-6 vs top 100 with a SOS of 41...the top resume among all schools mentioned this NCAA analysis.
(44) WISCONSIN 17-10: Comeback with over Ilinois keeps their late surge for a NCAA bid on track. Badgers have now won 8 of their last 9 negating a poor start to the year which saw losses to the likes of Milwaukee and Western Illinois. Those losses look like they will be overlooked now as long as Wisky can maybe split the last 4 of at Iowa/Mich/at Minn/at Purdue. 4-5 vs top 50 and 8-6 vs top 100 are very good. The big conference wins were at Maryland, Indiana, Michigan State, while OOC extremely solid with wins over VCU, Syracuse and Temple. Oh and the SOS its 5.
(55) MICHIGAN 18-9: Upset bid at Maryland fell short, no shame in that effort but Wolverines still in searching for one or two more quality wins to beef up those middling rpi numbers. Just 3-8 vs top 50 and 4-9 now vs top 100. A good OOC win over Texas and that big win earlier over Maryland but only the Purdue win to go along with that. Note losses to fellow bubbles Ohio State and UConn but its not like they have any bad losses, in fact the loss to OSU rpi 75 is their worst of the season. Last 3 provides an opportunity for them to lock in...Northwestern, at Wisky, and Iowa. Win 2 of those 3 and they are safely in. Win one or less and its work to do in the Big 10 tourney especially if that win isn't Iowa.
(75) OHIO STATE 18-10: The overall mark and the 10-5 conference mark make it seem like the Buckeyes are in good shape. However unpeeling the onion tells another story. Buckeyes are in big trouble. Just one lone top 50 win over Kentucky on a neutral court and they are just 2-7 vs rpi top 100. Those numbers do not get it done. In league OSU has just beaten Michigan and have lost to Indiana and Maryland by 25+. To go along with it are nasty plus 100 losses to Texas Arlington and Louisiana Tech. The road/neutral mark is a shaky 5-6. Well the good news is opportunity awaits. Two games vs Michigan State with a home game vs Iowa sandwiched in the middle. If they can pull out two of these I would say they would have pulled themselves onto the right side of the bubble but its going to take two and not just one. Other than that they will have to make a run very deep maybe to the finals of the Big 10 tourney to muscle their way in this year.
PAC 12
Autobid: Oregon
IN: Utah, Arizona
BUBBLE
(20) CALIFORNIA 19-8: Some sort of RPI phenomena in the Pac 12 this year which has landed 7 schools in the top 40 and 11 in the top 100 which has seemed to inflate everyones rpi nitty gritty. So with that being said that's why for right now we keep Cal on the bubble but firmly in. Just want to see one more quality win in the next 3 which includes UCLA and USC at home and Arizona on the road. Cal is a whopping 11-7 vs rpi top 100 and 5-6 vs top 50. They beat the biggies in league Arizona, Utah, and Oregon all at home. Lets note Cal's struggles on the road just 3-8. OOC the best wins are St Mary's and Davidson. So its going to be interesting to see how the selection committee stacks the many Pac 12 bubble teams against the rest of the country. Cal is by far the best of the bunch
(24) USC 19-8: A little cause for concern for the Trojans as losses in 3 of their last 4 has kept them from locking in. Last night it was a home loss to Utah which would have given them their best win this season. USC is just riding the Colorado and Arizona wins in league as their best. Two nice OOC wins in Wichita State and Monmouth but note they also lost to Monmouth but there is also a sneaky good win over Yale. Again the inflated rpi stuff brings their top 100 to 10-8 which should make them safe but its a tricky last 4. At Stanford and Cal and then the Oregon schools at home. A split should keep things looking solid heading into the Pac 12 tourney.
(33) OREGON STATE 14-10: The overall mark plus the 6-8 league mark are the biggest red flags right now. Beavers simply need to keep winning...preferably sweeping the Washington schools at home and then taking down at least one if not both of USC/UCLA on the road. Its a tough road but even with the solid rpi and SOS of 4, this league isn't getting sub 500 schools in the tourney this year.6-6 vs top 50 and 8-10 vs top 100 needs more. Their best OOC win is Tulsa and best overall is league leading Oregon. Just 1-6 on the road in the Pac 12 stands out, 5-7 overall road/neutral. Going to have to make hay in the Pac 12 tourney.
(36) COLORADO 18-9: Buffs face an almost must win situation hosting Arizona this week and it would do them well to pick off Utah on the road next week. Just not enough here right now to land them in the field. 3-7 vs top 50 and 7-9 vs top 100. Best wins are Oregon and Cal and a win over BYU is solid but not exactly what the selection committee is looking for when looking at whether you have big non conference wins. Bears are yet another Pac 12 school struggling on the road at just 5-8. Lotta work to do.
(66) UCLA 15-12: I hesitate to include the Bruins given their overall mark and 6-8 league mark but lets keep them here because a strong finish which would include a win over the Oregon schools and maybe a Cal is going to bolster the resume. Right now they sit at 4-8 vs top 50 and 8-10 vs top 100. There are some good things here...SOS of 15, wins over Kentucky, Arizona, Gonzaga...you would think a school with those kinds of quality wins would be a lock..well those wins while still good aren't as good as they normally are. Plus the Bruins have some bad losses which hurt them....Washington State and Wake and then we get to another bad road mark at 4-8.
SEC
Autobid: Kentucky
IN: Texas A&M
BUBBLE
(31) SOUTH CAROLINA 21-5: Despite the gaudy win total, the Cocks are no lock yet. Several losses the past few weeks to the likes of Georgia, Tennessee and just recent a hideous loss to Missouri have taken some luster off a strong 14-0 start to the season. They stopped the bleeding with a win over Florida on Saturday which pushed their rpi mark vs top 50 to 4-2 and 9-3 vs top 100. Those numbers are really good. SC has wins over Tulsa, Bama, and Texas A&M as well as a bunch of bubbles like LSU, Vandy and Clemson. Unfortunately the final 4 games do not provide any opportunity for anymore quality wins so its all about them navigating them without slipping up. They could afford maybe one but not two.
(32) FLORIDA 17-10: Gators have played the 9th toughest schedule and it got them wins over the likes of WVU and St Joe's. However its in the SEC where they failed to pick up wins against the top 4 in league losing them all . They do get another crack at home this weekend to Kentucky so that's the kind of win that can vault them in the tourney safely. Otherwise they just need to keep winning against bubbles Vandy and LSU and at least make the SEC semis. The 2-7 mark vs top 50 not good and 7-9 is a bit better as a lot of those come from the likes of the tail end SEC bubbles such as Georgia and Ole Miss. The Gators have to deal with the seemingly endless number of SEC bubble teams so it would behoove them to get some separation from them
(42) ALABAMA 16-10: After putting together such a solid resume that rates above Fla, its a shame that the Tide had to suffer such a disturbing home loss to Mississippi State on Saturday. That loss make its 2 bad losses against SEC dreck and those are the kind of things that they need to avoid in their final 4. They may not have to win at Kentucky but they would do themselves well to sweep the final 3 of Auburn, Arky and at Georgia. No real quality wins there unless they pull the Kentucky shocker but at 4-5 vs the top 50 and 7-8 vs top 100, the Tide would appear to have enough flesh on the resume as long as they avoid any more bad losses. Wins over Wichita State and Notre Dame OOC and A&M, SC and Florida in league are all very solid wins for them.
(62) VANDERBILT 16-11: Commodores were also another victim of Mississippi State last week, a crushing loss that along with Arkansas gives them 2 bad losses this year. Unlike with Bama though they find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble. Just 3-7 vs top 50 and 5-9 vs top 100 is going to need a lot more. Best OOC win was Stony Brook as Vandy went 0-4 OOC against the top 25 rpi. In league wins over Florida, A&M, and Bama at least keep them in the discussion. Its make or break in the final 4 games and there is plenty of opportunity....at Fla, Kentucky, Tennessee and at A&M. Find 3 wins in that group and they will bounce into the field. A split or less and it means fighting it out with the whole bunch in the always unpredictable SEC tournament.
(82) GEORGIA 14-11 and (85) MISSISSIPPI 17-10: bubble hopes on life support. Both need to win out the regular season to move themselves even into the serious discussion
(87) LOUISIANA STATE 16-11: The most talked about school on the bubble this year for many reason. One Ben Simmons, two they are tanking down the stretch and three an injury to Hornsby which might make any discussion about them moot. Tigers have dropped 3 of 4 but none hurt worse than a blowout loss to bottom feeding Tennesse. For LSU its the 4th loss outside the rpi top 100 and even two other losses to Houston and NC State are the kind you want on the resume. Last year LSU was able to overcome those numbers and while this year there are schools like Wisconsin who had some bad losses, those are negated by big wins. LSU doesn't have any non conference wins of note as their best is 138 ranked Oral Roberts. Wins in league over Kentucky, Bama, TexasA&M are good but not enough. Just 3-5 vs top 50 and 6-7 vs top 100, note the awful 3-8 road mark. LSU is in must win mode the rest of the regular sweep meaning they must beat Florida at home and beat Kentucky on the road while also avoiding more bad losses, other than that they most likely need to reach the SEC championship game to get back into the discussion
WCC
Autobid: St Mary's
BUBBLE
(68) GONZAGA 20-7: Dawgs find themselves in unfamiliar territory as their non conference schedule resume just does not have the meat that we are used to seeing from them. There is the win over UConn and Washington as well but they dropped close games to Tex A&M, Arizona, UCLA, and SMU. To their credit all 7 of their losses including the two losses to St Marys and the loss to BYU have all been single digits. First and foremost will be no slip ups the last two..so taking care of business at San Diego and then going to Provo and taking down a desperate BYU. At least would give them another top 100 win which sits at a paltry 2-7 right now. A trip to the WCC finals seems mandatory at this point. The committee may say past history does not matter but when it comes to Gonzaga it does.
(73) BRIGHAM YOUNG 20-8: Cougars always seem to find themselves here in the bubble discussion but this is the one year that they are the longest of longshots. 0-2 vs top 50 and 3-4 vs top 100. The best wins are Gonzaga fighting for their lives themselves and St Marys....you have to go to Belmont to find their biggest OOC win. Plus there are bad losses to Pepperdine, Portland, Harvard. Its just doesn't look like it will happen for them this year. I suppose they can beat Gonzaga and then beat them again and hope a close loss in the WCC finals might get them a look but at that point why not just win the whole WCC tourney
Note that schools like VCU, Temple, and St Marys will receive at large consideration if they don't win their conference tournaments
LAST 4 IN: GEORGE WASHINGTON, BUTLER, GONZAGA, SETON HALL
LAST 4 OUT: COLORADO, TULSA, SAINT BONAVENTURE, FLORIDA STATE
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