BAC'S NCAA BUBBLE PECKING ORDER: 3/11/19

[bac2therac]

Wichita had a prime opportunity to knock off Cincy but could not get it done late

Looks like Utah State going to to take xare of Aztecs

Buffalo up big early on Bowling Green

Bid stealers being repelled. Lets see what happens with Oregon

 

[gordel1]

Wichita had a prime opportunity to knock off Cincy but could not get it done late

Looks like Utah State going to to take xare of Aztecs

Buffalo up big early on Bowling Green

Bid stealers being repelled. Lets see what happens with Oregon

Indeed and Utah St winning the MWC tourney also enhances ASU OOC neutral court win over them too so important to keep that in mind. This was the game ASU really needed it benefits them 2 fold. Bowling Green put up a valiant effort but Buffalo too much. Teams on the bubble rejoice only 1 bid max overall will be stolen if Oregon wins tonight.

 

[bac2therac]

well would could have been interesting is looking less interesting no bid stealers with just one to go..Oregon in the Pac 12.

Close to solidifying my field...the only question for me is between a power conference school vs a low mid major for that last spot. Hard to figure out where the NCAA will go with this one.

 

[gordel1]

well would could have been interesting is looking less interesting no bid stealers with just one to go..Oregon in the Pac 12.

Close to solidifying my field...the only question for me is between a power conference school vs a low mid major for that last spot. Hard to figure out where the NCAA will go with this one.

Not really if that is your criteria, the NCAA almost always favors the power conference school especially if your other school is a low mid major.

 

[DHajekRC84]

well would could have been interesting is looking less interesting no bid stealers with just one to go..Oregon in the Pac 12.

Close to solidifying my field...the only question for me is between a power conference school vs a low mid major for that last spot. Hard to figure out where the NCAA will go with this one.

Still waiting to hear your logic for why the acc should get 3 teams in. As 1 seeds. Thanks.

 

[bac2therac]

Because they deserve it. Will get 2 could go either way on the third

 

[bac2therac]

Not really if that is your criteria, the NCAA almost always favors the power conference school especially if your other school is a low mid major.

Not always

 

[bac2therac]

Looks like Oregon is going to crush Washington

The Huskies have not beaten one damn tourney team except for Oregon who is only going because they won the Pac12 Tourney. They will get a bid but really do not deserve it

Another bid stolen. Goodbye NC State/Belmont/Temple

 

[Night Man]

Terrible bubble getting its due

 

[gordel1]

Bid could have been St. Johns that went out the window. I think the last 4 are TCU, Temple, Belmont, Ohio State. How much with the commitee weigh the Wesson suspension?

Last 4 Byes I have Oklahoma, Florida, Washington (losing by 20 dropped them significantly) and ASU.

 

[Doctor Worm]

Since the expansion to 68, has there ever been a strong bubble?

 

[TDIrish27]

Looks like Oregon is going to crush Washington

The Huskies have not beaten one damn tourney team except for Oregon who is only going because they won the Pac12 Tourney. They will get a bid but really do not deserve it

Another bid stolen. Goodbye NC State/Belmont/Temple

They won their conference and regardless of the mediocrity of it this year the Pac 12 is a Power 5.

Are you honestly going to make a case for Indiana who won 40 % of their conference games getting a bid over them ?

 

[bac2therac]

They won their conference and regardless of the mediocrity of it this year the Pac 12 is a Power 5.

Are you honestly going to make a case for Indiana who won 40 % of their conference games getting a bid over them ?

Not Indiana..maybe Temple

 

[bac2therac]

Bid could have been St. Johns that went out the window. I think the last 4 are TCU, Temple, Belmont, Ohio State. How much with the commitee weigh the Wesson suspension?

Last 4 Byes I have Oklahoma, Florida, Washington (losing by 20 dropped them significantly) and ASU.

As i went to bed last night...jerry palm had Arizona State as last team in and said Oregon may have taken their spot


Lunardi has ASU in play in game vs St Johns

Numbers crunching this morning and my full field sometime after 3pm

 

[blockm2]

As i went to bed last night...jerry palm had Arizona State as last team in and said Oregon may have taken their spot


Lunardi has ASU in play in game vs St Johns

Numbers crunching this morning and my full field sometime after 3pm

There should be no way the P12 gets 3 teams in. That would be criminal for how bad that league is.

 

[bac2therac]

Agree but its likely to happen

Although USC last year finished 2nd and had 22 wins was left out....surprisingly Washington has a similar resume

 

[G- RUnit]

Sadly I also think Pac 12 will get 3 in. St. John’s v ASU play in game? (Edit: Oops didn’t see Lunardi comment above. It does make sense).

First half of Oregon v Washington was as bad basketball in a championship game that I have ever seen. And it wasn’t a defensive struggle it was just awful hoops. Oregon did look okay 2nd half.

I’d be worried if I were Temple but Fran is a well liked coach and a good story so hope NCAA doesn’t screw them.

Hope for Belmont but now doubt any other midmajors. Shame for Lipscomb and UNCG. Hell even UMBC. Hope to be surprised.

If Texas is in, system is a farce.

 

[gordel1]

What do you think of Bracket Matrix? It was just updated this morning. Has last 4 of TCU, ASU, Ohio St and St Johns. These 4 teams right now seem to be the general consensus on the last 4 in as this is the average between all the brackets + Lunardi.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Because they deserve it. Will get 2 could go either way on the third

ok, I guess you think I'm trying to be a smart ass here. I was really interested in your insight based on the usual analysis. no worries. Just making sure you knew my ask was legit.

 

[shields]

Arizona State to their credit did beat Kansas and Miss State. And like someone wrote also beat Utah State who won their tourney. St.john's versus ASU would probably be right matchup.

 

[gordel1]

Also worth noting that the head of the committee is the Stanford AD so there may be some PAC 12 preferred conversations in that room.

 

[bac2therac]

If ASU doesn't make it its because they have 4 losses in Q3 and Q4

So if they are left out that is why. Losses to Princeton and Washington State

Wins in league? Washington and 1-2 vs Oregon

If St Johns does not make it will be because if SOS out of conference at 218

The wins over Nova and 2x Marquette are better than anyone around the bubble except Indiana

 

[bac2therac]

Also worth noting that the head of the committee is the Stanford AD so there may be some PAC 12 preferred conversations in that room.

There are like 6 mid major conference ADs as well so it could work the other way

 

[bac2therac]

ok, I guess you think I'm trying to be a smart ass here. I was really interested in your insight based on the usual analysis. no worries. Just making sure you knew my ask was legit.

There isnt a conspiracy here. The numbers support it. Although a case can be made for Tennessee and that may happen.

 

[T2Kplus10]

If ASU doesn't make it its because they have 4 losses in Q3 and Q4

So if they are left out that is why. Losses to Princeton and Washington State

Wins in league? Washington and 1-2 vs Oregon

If St Johns does not make it will be because if SOS out of conference at 218

The wins over Nova and 2x Marquette are better than anyone around the bubble except Indiana

Nova is the only BE team that deserves a bid, the conference was truly awful this year.

 

[shields]

Seton Hall beat Kentucky and Maryland, that is wrong. Think Marquette is overrated, Indiana crushed them.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Seton Hall beat Kentucky and Maryland, that is wrong.

And lost 13 other games, mostly to mediocre teams.

 

[bac2therac]

Note in 2012 Washington was 21-10/14-4 in the Pac12 and regular season Pac 12 champs and did not receive at an large bid. Very similar profile.

I actually could see a scenerio where they dont get a bid...maybe 10% chance

 

[bac2therac]

SOS schedule is 218? That is horrible. I could see RU going 9-11 and having that SOS and being left out.

Not if they had 20 wins plus by having 3 wins vs top 2 schools in league

 

[shields]

Beating Wagner, Maryland eastern Shore , and Sacred heart. Beating Cal who won 8 games and G-Tech who is horrible. Lost to DePaul twice. Forgot Mount St.mary's. Below .500 in the conference.

 

[bac2therac]

The ncaa will either reward or snub the little guys. Belmont has the best shot.

A real travesty would be NC State getting in with a non conference sos of 353

 

[TDIrish27]

Nova is the only BE team that deserves a bid, the conference was truly awful this year.

Wow

 

[King of S]

Nova is the only BE team that deserves a bid, the conference was truly awful this year.

Not sure what your watching. Marquette, SHU well deserved bids.

 

[rubaseball78]

Looks like Oregon is going to crush Washington

The Huskies have not beaten one damn tourney team except for Oregon who is only going because they won the Pac12 Tourney. They will get a bid but really do not deserve it

Another bid stolen. Goodbye NC State/Belmont/Temple

If they win the tourney, then they deserve it.

 

[gordel1]

Note in 2012 Washington was 21-10/14-4 in the Pac12 and regular season Pac 12 champs and did not receive at an large bid. Very similar profile.

I actually could see a scenerio where they dont get a bid...maybe 10% chance

They were just talking about Washington on ESPN and raise really good points about them. They absolutely do not have a better resume than ASU. The only team Washington beat in the field was Oregon. So going into last night they had not beaten a time in the field. ASU on the other hand beat Washington, Oregon, Utah State, Kansas, Mississippi State, and won at Georgia. Washington really struggled at the end of the year and lost to Cal probably the worst major conference team last year. ASU played very well at the end of the year on the other hand almost beat Oregon in the tournament in OT and Washington gets crushed by 20.

 

[bac2therac]

winning at Georgia means zero. ASU has 4 bad losses, that is alot...2 of them in Q4

Washington won the Pac 12 regular season and that is their biggest strength but their sos numbers are surprisingly strong..they lost all those big games though.

I do think the ASU resume is overall better than Washington. I wouldnt mind if the Huskies were left out.

To me I finally narrowed my field down...interesting for a change I am lock step with Lunardi and Palm which does not always happen. The wildcards are how does the selection committee weigh overall NET (if so welcome to the bracket NC State, say goodbye St John's) and how will they consider mid majors who may deserve a bid (if so say hello Belmont, say goodbye Arizona State)

one team that looks like they will slip in...Temple really doesnt deserve it but they beat Houston and thats why they are more than likely going to dance.