Okay folks, here is the 2nd week update
Here are the 32 projected autobids
AMERICA EAST: VERMONT
AMERICAN: HOUSTON
ATLANTIC 10: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
ACC: VIRGINIA
ATLANTIC SUN: LIPSCOMB
BIG 12: TEXAS TECH
BIG EAST: VILLANOVA
BIG SKY: MONTANA
BIG SOUTH: CAMPBELL
BIG TEN: PURDUE
BIG WEST: UC IRVINE
COLONIAL: HOFSTRA
CONFERENCE USA: OLD DOMINION
HORIZON: WRIGHT STATE
IVY: YALE
MAAC: IONA
MID AMERICAN: BUFFALO
MEAC: NORFOLK STATE
MISSOURI VALLEY: LOYOLA CHICAGO
MOUNTAIN WEST: NEVADA
NORTHEAST: SAINT FRANCIS
OHIO VALLEY: BELMONT
PACIFIC 12: WASHINGTON
PATRIOT: COLGATE
SEC: TENNESSEE
SOUTHERN: WOFFORD
SOUTHLAND: SAM HOUSTON STATE
SWAC: PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
SUMMIT: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
SUN BELT: GEORGIA SOUTHERN
WEST COAST: GONZAGA
WAC: NEW MEXICO STATE
There are 23 schools I have projected as at large locks: CINCINNATI, NORTH CAROLINA, DUKE, VIRGINIA TECH, FLORIDA STATE, LOUISVILLE, SYRACUSE, KANSAS STATE, KANSAS, BAYLOR, IOWA STATE, MARQUETTE, SAINT JOHN'S, MICHIGAN, MICHIGAN STATE, MARYLAND, WISCONSIN, IOWA, KENTUCKY, LOUISIANA STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, AUBURN, MISSISSIPPI
That takes care of 55 of the 68 available bids. There are about 22 schools competing for 13 bids.
Here is the pecking order....
IN
1.. (41) OKLAHOMA 18-11: Sooners have a solid enough resume in a weak bubble year. 3-9 in Q1 is so so but 6-2 vs Q2 is solid. Look at the wins...Wofford, Florida, and Creighton OOC and TCU 2x, Texas in league. The SOS is helpful at 23. The sticking point is what happens if they drop the last two vs Kansas and Kansas State and finish 6-12 in Big 12 play. The Big 12 may be the top rated conference but no at large bid has ever been given out to a school that finished 6 games below 500. Conference record is not a criteria but do not let them fool you on this one. That said this is a year of first, we are likely to see our first 15 loss school, multiple teams with 13 and 14 losses getting bids, and multiple teams getting in with conference marks 4 games under 500. Sooners can make it easy..beat Kansas tonight and they dance. If they lose both they will likely need to maybe reach the Big 12 finals to shore up the resume.
2. (43) OHIO STATE 18-11: Buckeyes got a need quality win by beating Iowa last week albeit its quad 2 actually but they are fighting the headwinds now that Kaleb Wesson has been suspended. With his return timing unclear, the Buckeyes have to make their final push without him and if their first attempt without him in the lineup is any indication they may be in trouble. OSU was emasculated at Purdue by 35 and it was not even that close. They face a must win at bottom feeder Northwestern before hosting Wisconsin. If they get by Northwestern, due to the weakness of the bubble they might not have to win at Wisconsin. Obviously beating Wisconsin will lock them in. They still have a decent profile 4-8 vs Q1 with wins over Cincinnati, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, and improving Creighton. A solid SOS and only one loss outside in Q3 to Illinois. Its up to them to make it easy or make it hard.
3. (29) CENTRAL FLORIDA 22-6: Golden Knights notched a feather in their cap win by topping AAC leader Houston. And further opportunity abounds for Q1 wins in the final 2 vs Cincy and at Temple. A win in either especially the former is likely enough to move them to lock status. The question is do they need more if they lose both. Houston was their first Q1 win....1-3 but they are a strong 6-2 in Q2. Solid wins vs Alabama, Temple, and Memphis. There is just one bad loss to Fla Atlantic on the resume. SOS fairly solid at 48. This seems like a team peaking at the right time and playing their way in while others are playing their way out. A legit shot at winning the whole AAC tourney anyhow
4. (30) UTAH STATE 23-6: The Aggies are now co leaders in the MWC race after that rousing win over Nevada. It was the win they simply needed to raise their profile several notches in the pecking order. However like most schools residing in the non power 6 conferences, they fight the perception battle and the lack of beef when it comes to Q1 and Q2 wins. Only 2-2 vs Q1 with the other win a good neutral site win over St Mary's. Just 2-3 vs Q2 shows losses to ASU, SDst, and BYU while the wins just Fresno St and UC Irvine. Note a Q3 loss to Fresno State and there still is the problem of 12 of their 23 wins coming in Q4. While the SOS is 100, the non conference SOS of 21 shows that they did go out and schedule fairly tough. The weakness of the bubble certainly helps them. MWC is a high mid major, sharing the regular season title will count for something and Nevada is dancing either way. Would do themselves well to take care of Colorado St in the regular season and finale and reach the MWC tourney finals to lock them in.
5. (47) MINNESOTA 18-11: Gophers can play their win into the field with a win at home tonight vs Purdue or a win at Maryland....but they can also play their way onto the last in/last out line if they lose both which will require them to pick up some Big 10 tourney wins. There is some good here..wins at Wisconsin, Indiana and Iowa in league and over Washington OOC. That 2-8 mark would really be buoyed by one in their final two. 7-3 mark vs Q2 is excellent. No loss outside Q2 and SOS is solid enough at 55. Not an overwhelming profile but in a year of a pathetic bubble, it probably will be good enough. Up to them.
6. (33) TEXAS 16-14: Longhorns are now in official danger territory. Just one NCAA school has ever been selected as an at large team with more than 14 losses. That was Alabama lasy year. Longhorns very well will be the second but they MUST beat TCU on Saturday. A loss there and it will not matter that they have a great overall NET, it will not matter if they are 5-9 vs Q1 and 4-13 vs Q2, it will not matter that they have tremendous wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma all likely NCAA tourney teams, it will not matter that the SOS is 6. I will say it here the Longhorns will not get a bid with 16 losses even if they make the Big 12 tourney finals. How costly is that loss to Radford now..wow. Its quite simple...beat TCU and they are in no question, lose and they must win the Big 12 tourney.
7. (53) ALABAMA 17-12: Crimson Tide had LSU on the ropes over the weekend but couldn't pull out what would have been a win that locked up a bid. Still they have an opportunity for another helpful Q1 win as Auburn visits tonight. That could be enough to move them near lock status. Bama is 2-8 in Q1 action but remember that win was over Kentucky, that is a huge feather in their cap that goes along way. The other wins of Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Liberty, Murray State are solid as well. Note they lost at home to fellow bubble Florida. That bad loss to Georgia State is a drag on the overall NET ranking and is one they really would want back. SOS is very good at 21. The question becomes if they lose 2, they will need to pick up quality wins and likely make the SEC finals to dance.
8. (35) FLORIDA 17-12: Gators picked the wrong time to throw in a clunker losing to bottom feeding Georgia now giving them 2 Q3 losses (So Car the other). 3-9 vs Q1 and 5-2 vs Q2. Again a huge win at LSU but how much mileage can they get out of that win. Their other wins of note are Alabama and Ole Miss. Their best win OOC of Butler does not look as good anymore. They lost to bubbles Oklahoma and TCU. Well the Gators are fortunate to have opportunity to play their way into the field with their finish of LSU and at Kentucky. Win either and they locked in, lose both and like Alabama will need a run to the SEC finals to earn that bid.
9. (68) ARIZONA STATE 20-9: Sun Devils have such a maddening resume, so much good yet striking warts. 3-3 vs Q1 and 7-2 vs Q2. 10 wins vs those two groups is very strong among the schools in this list. Wins over Kansas and neutral site wins over Mississippi State and Utah State and don't forget a win over Pac 12 leading Washington which oddly enough is now just a Q2 win. Such is life in the horrific Pac 12 this year where league wins do not mean all that much. But those 4 wins should easily be enough to make the tournament except the issue is the 2 losses in Q3 and even more problematic the 2 losses in Q4. Losing to Arizona (Q3) really isnt that bad. Losing at Vanderbilt and two hideous losses at home to Princeton and Washington State are quite the drag on the NET ranking. If the Sun Devils make it, they will have the highest NET ranking of any school selected. They must must win at Arizona to make thing easier for themselves otherwise they will have to probably make the Pac 12 tourney finals to secure a bid. Pac 12 is not getting three bids this year so must be weary of a bid stealer. In reality the Sun Devils can easily win the Pac 12 tourney and make it automatic.
10. (63) SETON HALL 16-12: Pirates look like a team running on fumes. At this point they do not pass the eye test. Fortunately for them their actual profile is pretty solid, they stocked their tank with non conference wins over Kentucky and at Maryland and that is keeping them on the good side of the bubble for now. 4-7 vs Q1 and 6-3 vs Q2 shows 10 wins again a big plus as like with ASU very high among this pecking order. The Creighton sweep now is looking better as is the win at Xavier and they also have a win (split) with St John's. The issue though is the final 2. Opportunity with 2 Q1 home games against Villanova and Marquette. Pirates can lock in with a win in either but they do not seem like a team that has a push left in them. If they lose both, that is 14 losses and they only way they can resuscitate their hopes for a bid is with a trip to the Big East tourney finals. They are going to really be kicking themselves for that home loss to St Louis which is one of their two Q2 losses.
11. (31) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20-9: Wolfpack have the classic profile that I have seen be left out of the tourney when maybe a few weeks ago they seemed like a lock. There just is something lacking here. The best win is Auburn, their best conference win is Syracuse and their only other win vs an above 500 school is bubble Clemson. Penn State is Q1 win for now but not sure that an earlier season win over the Nittany Lions counts as a quality win. 20 wins and a 8-8 ACC mark which quite possibly could go to 22-9 and 10-8 by beating BC and Ga Tech to finish the year seem to be willing enough. Digging deeper though, NC State benefitted from the unbalanced ACC schedule. They only got 7 games against the top 6 in league and proceeded to lose them all. 10 of their wins come from Q4 and their SOS numbers are downright hideous....208 overall and 353 non conference which is next to last in all of D1..wow. Advice to them is to keep winning. Win those last 2 and pick up ONE quality win in the ACC tourney.
12. (54) TCU 18-12: Horned Frogs are in some trouble now. Down to 6-11 in the Big 12, as mentioned earlier with Oklahoma, no school has ever been selected with a conference mark 6 games under 500 and unlike the Sooners, TCU does not have as much beef on the resume to overcome it plus their NET ranking continues to sink. To make matters worse they close out the season on the road versus a Texas team who will be desperate to avoid their 15th loss. Big swoon of late, losing 6 of 7 and 8 of 11, they are not passing the eye test right now. Their profile is riding now on a sweep of Iowa State in that 2-8 Q1 mark and a OOC win over Florida plus wins over Texas and Baylor. Not all that bad collectively when you consider the SOS of 25 but can it sustain another loss. The Texas game really is for all the marbles that may not lock the Frogs in but will put them a few notches up in this pecking order. Note a loss to bubble Lipscomb should the selection committee want to lean on a midmajor for a last bid. Just not sure this is a team that will win other game before selection sunday and that will deflate their at large hopes.
13. (57) TEMPLE 21-8: Owls wobbly here as the last team in. Remember there are quite a few schools projected as conference representatives from one bid leagues (Buffalo, Wofford, Gonzaga, Washington, VCU and maybe even New Mexico State) that if they do not win those conference tourneys are going to be getting at large bids. They really are living off of one big win over Houston and with UCF's win over the Cougars, the Owls can no longer claim to be the only team to take Houston down. 1-6 vs Q1 and 5-1 vs Q2, wins vs the likes of Memphis and USF do not really move the needle. The Q3 loss to Penn hurts and the SOS at 88/non conference 218 is not so hot. Still a Q1 opportunity ahead that they MUST win vs fellow bubble UCF as well as taking care of business at UConn. Win those and the Owls at least maintain their spot heading into the AAC tourney where they might just have to beat Houston in the semis to put on their dancing shoes in Fran Dunphy's swan song.
OUT
14. (39) CLEMSON 17-12: Tigers missed a prime opportunity to make their case but suffered a tough two point defeat to North Carolina over the weekend. The 1-10 mark vs Q1 is a huge issue. How many times do the Tigers get to prove that they cannot beat good teams? They are living off a lone home win over Virginia Tech and a OOC Quad 2 win over Lipscomb. A 5-12 overall mark vs Q1 and Q2 simply is not good enough even in such a weak bubble year and in a normal year they would not be anywhere near the last 4 out line. To their favor they have no bad losses and the SOS is a very solid 32. If they can stack up a needed win over Cuse to finish the season along with what looks like to be a bubble elimination game with NCState in the ACC first round AND take down #1 seed Virginia they dance. I doubt they can do that.
15. (54) INDIANA 15-14: Hoosiers are going to be he most talked about and most controversial bubble team...or not. See the Hoosiers are following a thread the needle path after losing 12 of 13 games just recently. Still somewhat zombie bubble status, the Hoosiers rose from the dead by not only beating Wisconsin but by beating Michigan State a 2nd time this season. Now with 6 Quad 1 wins, more than any team on this entire bubble breakdown. Strong OOC wins over Louisville and Marquette along with the SOS of 28 now really come into play. Its simple..get enough wins to improve the overall record to 17-14 and conference mark to 8-12, get the overall NET up a few spots and that is where the meat on the resume works for them. Not sure if they would even have to win a Big 10 tourney game although they would do themselves well to win one or two. The Hoosiers though are down to all or nothing right now. A loss at Illinois will effectively end their at large hopes....or a home loss to Rutgers. If Texas is not getting in with 16 losses, neither is Indiana. Their only remedy would be to win the Big 10 tourney. Going to be fascinating to watch...or not.
16. (72) GEORGETOWN 18-11: Hoyas kept themselves in play in a suddenly crowded Big East bubble picture by notching a win over Seton Hall which only actually qualifies as a Q2 win. The cache of the Big East is really down this year. So the win over league leading Villanova is not as juicy and the wins over St John's and Butler in Q3 are less impressive than one would think. 3-6 vs Q1 but a better 6-3 vs Q2. The OOC win over Liberty is good but that is their best OOC win on a weak non conference slate which included two Q3 losses...SMU and Loyola Marymount. Its likely those two losses playing on the overall poor NET ranking but will also likely be sticking points for the selection committee making it easy to pass on the Hoyas. A road trip to De Paul and at Marquette remain..both must wins and the latter while a Q1 win is not going to be enough to vault them in, they will likely need a trip to the Big East finals.
17. (49) CREIGHTON 15-13: Bluejays basically came out of nowhere after losing 9 of 12 midway through the season. That win over Marquette puts them here and gives them their third Quad 1 win....the others though are vs teams on the wrong side of the bubble in Clemson and Georgetown. Still 3-10 vs Q1 shows a lot of losses. Note they were swept by bubble SHU but swept Gtown and the split with Xav/Butler. Conversely the 6-3 mark vs Q2 shows they are 9-13 vs the two quads with no bad losses and an excellent SOS of 11. Bluejays at least has a profile is willing if they can take care of business vs Providence ad De Paul both at home and then make a run to the Big East finals. Opportunity is there.
18. (44) FURMAN 21-6: The Paladins may have the best case to make for an at large from among the mid majors. Southern Conference boasting powerful league leading Wofford and actually Furman sits third in league behind UNC Greensboro. Their case relies basically on the win at Big East leader Villanova in the non conference slate. That win may have been enough last year to get them in but not so sure this year. Beyond that they lost to Wofford twice and that hurts that they could not pick up a win vs them and as the third seed in the conference tourney will not get them until the final. Splitting with UNC Greensboro and E Tenn State does not move the needle. 1-5 vs Q1 and 3-0 in Q2. Its hard to overlook that 15 wins come from Q4. Their absolute only shot would be to make sure they get to the Southern tourney finals and play a close game with Wofford in a loss. If they are going to do that, they might as well win it and send two from the Southern conference.
19. (38) SAINT MARY'S (20-11): Gaels on the board because the NET has them so good at 38 but realistically all hopes vanished with the loss to Gonzaga. Only 1-6 vs Q1 and 2-2 vs Q2. Just too many losses and the wins are not there. New Mexico State is a good program and likely going to the NCAA but that win is not getting St Mary's in the dance. Schduled strong..its 53 but lost all the challenges...LSU, Miss St, Utah St. Go out and win the Westcoast tourney.
20. (50) MURRAY STATE 23-4: Tied for first with Belmont for Ohio Valley regular season title but lost the tiebreaker so enter the tourney as the 2 seed. Lost to Belmont in their only meeting and the Racers show two close losses to probable NCAA schools Auburn and Alabama. Not bad at all. However despite the sheer strong win total and only 4 losses, it might be that 4th loss to a still barely Quad 2 loss to Jacksonville State that does them. When you see that 19 of their wins came from Q4 and their best win was Austin Peay, you realize that this team has zero shot at an at large but they legit can win the conference tourney. If they do that is when we will consider Belmont on this list and their case is much stronger and they may have a serious chance of a bid.
21. (59) BUTLER 16-14/(70) XAVIER 16-14: Going to combine these two schools who just met tonight and Butler won the game which knocked Xavier back down while at least kept a flickering light for Butler. Ultimately the key thing to look at is both schools have 14 losses. Remember only one school has ever received an at large bid with 15 losses and I would say Texas with 16 losses would get in over either any of these schools with 15 losses. Butler has some nice non conference wins over Ole Miss and Florida and Xavier has that win over Villanova. Just too much to overcome here and either school would seem to have a legit shot at winning the wide open Big East tourney and get the automatic bid.
LAST 4 IN: SETON HALL, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, TCU, TEMPLE
LAST 4 OUT: CLEMSON, INDIANA, GEORGETOWN, CREIGHTON
Here are the 32 projected autobids
AMERICA EAST: VERMONT
AMERICAN: HOUSTON
ATLANTIC 10: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
ACC: VIRGINIA
ATLANTIC SUN: LIPSCOMB
BIG 12: TEXAS TECH
BIG EAST: VILLANOVA
BIG SKY: MONTANA
BIG SOUTH: CAMPBELL
BIG TEN: PURDUE
BIG WEST: UC IRVINE
COLONIAL: HOFSTRA
CONFERENCE USA: OLD DOMINION
HORIZON: WRIGHT STATE
IVY: YALE
MAAC: IONA
MID AMERICAN: BUFFALO
MEAC: NORFOLK STATE
MISSOURI VALLEY: LOYOLA CHICAGO
MOUNTAIN WEST: NEVADA
NORTHEAST: SAINT FRANCIS
OHIO VALLEY: BELMONT
PACIFIC 12: WASHINGTON
PATRIOT: COLGATE
SEC: TENNESSEE
SOUTHERN: WOFFORD
SOUTHLAND: SAM HOUSTON STATE
SWAC: PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
SUMMIT: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
SUN BELT: GEORGIA SOUTHERN
WEST COAST: GONZAGA
WAC: NEW MEXICO STATE
There are 23 schools I have projected as at large locks: CINCINNATI, NORTH CAROLINA, DUKE, VIRGINIA TECH, FLORIDA STATE, LOUISVILLE, SYRACUSE, KANSAS STATE, KANSAS, BAYLOR, IOWA STATE, MARQUETTE, SAINT JOHN'S, MICHIGAN, MICHIGAN STATE, MARYLAND, WISCONSIN, IOWA, KENTUCKY, LOUISIANA STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, AUBURN, MISSISSIPPI
That takes care of 55 of the 68 available bids. There are about 22 schools competing for 13 bids.
Here is the pecking order....
IN
1.. (41) OKLAHOMA 18-11: Sooners have a solid enough resume in a weak bubble year. 3-9 in Q1 is so so but 6-2 vs Q2 is solid. Look at the wins...Wofford, Florida, and Creighton OOC and TCU 2x, Texas in league. The SOS is helpful at 23. The sticking point is what happens if they drop the last two vs Kansas and Kansas State and finish 6-12 in Big 12 play. The Big 12 may be the top rated conference but no at large bid has ever been given out to a school that finished 6 games below 500. Conference record is not a criteria but do not let them fool you on this one. That said this is a year of first, we are likely to see our first 15 loss school, multiple teams with 13 and 14 losses getting bids, and multiple teams getting in with conference marks 4 games under 500. Sooners can make it easy..beat Kansas tonight and they dance. If they lose both they will likely need to maybe reach the Big 12 finals to shore up the resume.
2. (43) OHIO STATE 18-11: Buckeyes got a need quality win by beating Iowa last week albeit its quad 2 actually but they are fighting the headwinds now that Kaleb Wesson has been suspended. With his return timing unclear, the Buckeyes have to make their final push without him and if their first attempt without him in the lineup is any indication they may be in trouble. OSU was emasculated at Purdue by 35 and it was not even that close. They face a must win at bottom feeder Northwestern before hosting Wisconsin. If they get by Northwestern, due to the weakness of the bubble they might not have to win at Wisconsin. Obviously beating Wisconsin will lock them in. They still have a decent profile 4-8 vs Q1 with wins over Cincinnati, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, and improving Creighton. A solid SOS and only one loss outside in Q3 to Illinois. Its up to them to make it easy or make it hard.
3. (29) CENTRAL FLORIDA 22-6: Golden Knights notched a feather in their cap win by topping AAC leader Houston. And further opportunity abounds for Q1 wins in the final 2 vs Cincy and at Temple. A win in either especially the former is likely enough to move them to lock status. The question is do they need more if they lose both. Houston was their first Q1 win....1-3 but they are a strong 6-2 in Q2. Solid wins vs Alabama, Temple, and Memphis. There is just one bad loss to Fla Atlantic on the resume. SOS fairly solid at 48. This seems like a team peaking at the right time and playing their way in while others are playing their way out. A legit shot at winning the whole AAC tourney anyhow
4. (30) UTAH STATE 23-6: The Aggies are now co leaders in the MWC race after that rousing win over Nevada. It was the win they simply needed to raise their profile several notches in the pecking order. However like most schools residing in the non power 6 conferences, they fight the perception battle and the lack of beef when it comes to Q1 and Q2 wins. Only 2-2 vs Q1 with the other win a good neutral site win over St Mary's. Just 2-3 vs Q2 shows losses to ASU, SDst, and BYU while the wins just Fresno St and UC Irvine. Note a Q3 loss to Fresno State and there still is the problem of 12 of their 23 wins coming in Q4. While the SOS is 100, the non conference SOS of 21 shows that they did go out and schedule fairly tough. The weakness of the bubble certainly helps them. MWC is a high mid major, sharing the regular season title will count for something and Nevada is dancing either way. Would do themselves well to take care of Colorado St in the regular season and finale and reach the MWC tourney finals to lock them in.
5. (47) MINNESOTA 18-11: Gophers can play their win into the field with a win at home tonight vs Purdue or a win at Maryland....but they can also play their way onto the last in/last out line if they lose both which will require them to pick up some Big 10 tourney wins. There is some good here..wins at Wisconsin, Indiana and Iowa in league and over Washington OOC. That 2-8 mark would really be buoyed by one in their final two. 7-3 mark vs Q2 is excellent. No loss outside Q2 and SOS is solid enough at 55. Not an overwhelming profile but in a year of a pathetic bubble, it probably will be good enough. Up to them.
6. (33) TEXAS 16-14: Longhorns are now in official danger territory. Just one NCAA school has ever been selected as an at large team with more than 14 losses. That was Alabama lasy year. Longhorns very well will be the second but they MUST beat TCU on Saturday. A loss there and it will not matter that they have a great overall NET, it will not matter if they are 5-9 vs Q1 and 4-13 vs Q2, it will not matter that they have tremendous wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma all likely NCAA tourney teams, it will not matter that the SOS is 6. I will say it here the Longhorns will not get a bid with 16 losses even if they make the Big 12 tourney finals. How costly is that loss to Radford now..wow. Its quite simple...beat TCU and they are in no question, lose and they must win the Big 12 tourney.
7. (53) ALABAMA 17-12: Crimson Tide had LSU on the ropes over the weekend but couldn't pull out what would have been a win that locked up a bid. Still they have an opportunity for another helpful Q1 win as Auburn visits tonight. That could be enough to move them near lock status. Bama is 2-8 in Q1 action but remember that win was over Kentucky, that is a huge feather in their cap that goes along way. The other wins of Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Liberty, Murray State are solid as well. Note they lost at home to fellow bubble Florida. That bad loss to Georgia State is a drag on the overall NET ranking and is one they really would want back. SOS is very good at 21. The question becomes if they lose 2, they will need to pick up quality wins and likely make the SEC finals to dance.
8. (35) FLORIDA 17-12: Gators picked the wrong time to throw in a clunker losing to bottom feeding Georgia now giving them 2 Q3 losses (So Car the other). 3-9 vs Q1 and 5-2 vs Q2. Again a huge win at LSU but how much mileage can they get out of that win. Their other wins of note are Alabama and Ole Miss. Their best win OOC of Butler does not look as good anymore. They lost to bubbles Oklahoma and TCU. Well the Gators are fortunate to have opportunity to play their way into the field with their finish of LSU and at Kentucky. Win either and they locked in, lose both and like Alabama will need a run to the SEC finals to earn that bid.
9. (68) ARIZONA STATE 20-9: Sun Devils have such a maddening resume, so much good yet striking warts. 3-3 vs Q1 and 7-2 vs Q2. 10 wins vs those two groups is very strong among the schools in this list. Wins over Kansas and neutral site wins over Mississippi State and Utah State and don't forget a win over Pac 12 leading Washington which oddly enough is now just a Q2 win. Such is life in the horrific Pac 12 this year where league wins do not mean all that much. But those 4 wins should easily be enough to make the tournament except the issue is the 2 losses in Q3 and even more problematic the 2 losses in Q4. Losing to Arizona (Q3) really isnt that bad. Losing at Vanderbilt and two hideous losses at home to Princeton and Washington State are quite the drag on the NET ranking. If the Sun Devils make it, they will have the highest NET ranking of any school selected. They must must win at Arizona to make thing easier for themselves otherwise they will have to probably make the Pac 12 tourney finals to secure a bid. Pac 12 is not getting three bids this year so must be weary of a bid stealer. In reality the Sun Devils can easily win the Pac 12 tourney and make it automatic.
10. (63) SETON HALL 16-12: Pirates look like a team running on fumes. At this point they do not pass the eye test. Fortunately for them their actual profile is pretty solid, they stocked their tank with non conference wins over Kentucky and at Maryland and that is keeping them on the good side of the bubble for now. 4-7 vs Q1 and 6-3 vs Q2 shows 10 wins again a big plus as like with ASU very high among this pecking order. The Creighton sweep now is looking better as is the win at Xavier and they also have a win (split) with St John's. The issue though is the final 2. Opportunity with 2 Q1 home games against Villanova and Marquette. Pirates can lock in with a win in either but they do not seem like a team that has a push left in them. If they lose both, that is 14 losses and they only way they can resuscitate their hopes for a bid is with a trip to the Big East tourney finals. They are going to really be kicking themselves for that home loss to St Louis which is one of their two Q2 losses.
11. (31) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20-9: Wolfpack have the classic profile that I have seen be left out of the tourney when maybe a few weeks ago they seemed like a lock. There just is something lacking here. The best win is Auburn, their best conference win is Syracuse and their only other win vs an above 500 school is bubble Clemson. Penn State is Q1 win for now but not sure that an earlier season win over the Nittany Lions counts as a quality win. 20 wins and a 8-8 ACC mark which quite possibly could go to 22-9 and 10-8 by beating BC and Ga Tech to finish the year seem to be willing enough. Digging deeper though, NC State benefitted from the unbalanced ACC schedule. They only got 7 games against the top 6 in league and proceeded to lose them all. 10 of their wins come from Q4 and their SOS numbers are downright hideous....208 overall and 353 non conference which is next to last in all of D1..wow. Advice to them is to keep winning. Win those last 2 and pick up ONE quality win in the ACC tourney.
12. (54) TCU 18-12: Horned Frogs are in some trouble now. Down to 6-11 in the Big 12, as mentioned earlier with Oklahoma, no school has ever been selected with a conference mark 6 games under 500 and unlike the Sooners, TCU does not have as much beef on the resume to overcome it plus their NET ranking continues to sink. To make matters worse they close out the season on the road versus a Texas team who will be desperate to avoid their 15th loss. Big swoon of late, losing 6 of 7 and 8 of 11, they are not passing the eye test right now. Their profile is riding now on a sweep of Iowa State in that 2-8 Q1 mark and a OOC win over Florida plus wins over Texas and Baylor. Not all that bad collectively when you consider the SOS of 25 but can it sustain another loss. The Texas game really is for all the marbles that may not lock the Frogs in but will put them a few notches up in this pecking order. Note a loss to bubble Lipscomb should the selection committee want to lean on a midmajor for a last bid. Just not sure this is a team that will win other game before selection sunday and that will deflate their at large hopes.
13. (57) TEMPLE 21-8: Owls wobbly here as the last team in. Remember there are quite a few schools projected as conference representatives from one bid leagues (Buffalo, Wofford, Gonzaga, Washington, VCU and maybe even New Mexico State) that if they do not win those conference tourneys are going to be getting at large bids. They really are living off of one big win over Houston and with UCF's win over the Cougars, the Owls can no longer claim to be the only team to take Houston down. 1-6 vs Q1 and 5-1 vs Q2, wins vs the likes of Memphis and USF do not really move the needle. The Q3 loss to Penn hurts and the SOS at 88/non conference 218 is not so hot. Still a Q1 opportunity ahead that they MUST win vs fellow bubble UCF as well as taking care of business at UConn. Win those and the Owls at least maintain their spot heading into the AAC tourney where they might just have to beat Houston in the semis to put on their dancing shoes in Fran Dunphy's swan song.
OUT
14. (39) CLEMSON 17-12: Tigers missed a prime opportunity to make their case but suffered a tough two point defeat to North Carolina over the weekend. The 1-10 mark vs Q1 is a huge issue. How many times do the Tigers get to prove that they cannot beat good teams? They are living off a lone home win over Virginia Tech and a OOC Quad 2 win over Lipscomb. A 5-12 overall mark vs Q1 and Q2 simply is not good enough even in such a weak bubble year and in a normal year they would not be anywhere near the last 4 out line. To their favor they have no bad losses and the SOS is a very solid 32. If they can stack up a needed win over Cuse to finish the season along with what looks like to be a bubble elimination game with NCState in the ACC first round AND take down #1 seed Virginia they dance. I doubt they can do that.
15. (54) INDIANA 15-14: Hoosiers are going to be he most talked about and most controversial bubble team...or not. See the Hoosiers are following a thread the needle path after losing 12 of 13 games just recently. Still somewhat zombie bubble status, the Hoosiers rose from the dead by not only beating Wisconsin but by beating Michigan State a 2nd time this season. Now with 6 Quad 1 wins, more than any team on this entire bubble breakdown. Strong OOC wins over Louisville and Marquette along with the SOS of 28 now really come into play. Its simple..get enough wins to improve the overall record to 17-14 and conference mark to 8-12, get the overall NET up a few spots and that is where the meat on the resume works for them. Not sure if they would even have to win a Big 10 tourney game although they would do themselves well to win one or two. The Hoosiers though are down to all or nothing right now. A loss at Illinois will effectively end their at large hopes....or a home loss to Rutgers. If Texas is not getting in with 16 losses, neither is Indiana. Their only remedy would be to win the Big 10 tourney. Going to be fascinating to watch...or not.
16. (72) GEORGETOWN 18-11: Hoyas kept themselves in play in a suddenly crowded Big East bubble picture by notching a win over Seton Hall which only actually qualifies as a Q2 win. The cache of the Big East is really down this year. So the win over league leading Villanova is not as juicy and the wins over St John's and Butler in Q3 are less impressive than one would think. 3-6 vs Q1 but a better 6-3 vs Q2. The OOC win over Liberty is good but that is their best OOC win on a weak non conference slate which included two Q3 losses...SMU and Loyola Marymount. Its likely those two losses playing on the overall poor NET ranking but will also likely be sticking points for the selection committee making it easy to pass on the Hoyas. A road trip to De Paul and at Marquette remain..both must wins and the latter while a Q1 win is not going to be enough to vault them in, they will likely need a trip to the Big East finals.
17. (49) CREIGHTON 15-13: Bluejays basically came out of nowhere after losing 9 of 12 midway through the season. That win over Marquette puts them here and gives them their third Quad 1 win....the others though are vs teams on the wrong side of the bubble in Clemson and Georgetown. Still 3-10 vs Q1 shows a lot of losses. Note they were swept by bubble SHU but swept Gtown and the split with Xav/Butler. Conversely the 6-3 mark vs Q2 shows they are 9-13 vs the two quads with no bad losses and an excellent SOS of 11. Bluejays at least has a profile is willing if they can take care of business vs Providence ad De Paul both at home and then make a run to the Big East finals. Opportunity is there.
18. (44) FURMAN 21-6: The Paladins may have the best case to make for an at large from among the mid majors. Southern Conference boasting powerful league leading Wofford and actually Furman sits third in league behind UNC Greensboro. Their case relies basically on the win at Big East leader Villanova in the non conference slate. That win may have been enough last year to get them in but not so sure this year. Beyond that they lost to Wofford twice and that hurts that they could not pick up a win vs them and as the third seed in the conference tourney will not get them until the final. Splitting with UNC Greensboro and E Tenn State does not move the needle. 1-5 vs Q1 and 3-0 in Q2. Its hard to overlook that 15 wins come from Q4. Their absolute only shot would be to make sure they get to the Southern tourney finals and play a close game with Wofford in a loss. If they are going to do that, they might as well win it and send two from the Southern conference.
19. (38) SAINT MARY'S (20-11): Gaels on the board because the NET has them so good at 38 but realistically all hopes vanished with the loss to Gonzaga. Only 1-6 vs Q1 and 2-2 vs Q2. Just too many losses and the wins are not there. New Mexico State is a good program and likely going to the NCAA but that win is not getting St Mary's in the dance. Schduled strong..its 53 but lost all the challenges...LSU, Miss St, Utah St. Go out and win the Westcoast tourney.
20. (50) MURRAY STATE 23-4: Tied for first with Belmont for Ohio Valley regular season title but lost the tiebreaker so enter the tourney as the 2 seed. Lost to Belmont in their only meeting and the Racers show two close losses to probable NCAA schools Auburn and Alabama. Not bad at all. However despite the sheer strong win total and only 4 losses, it might be that 4th loss to a still barely Quad 2 loss to Jacksonville State that does them. When you see that 19 of their wins came from Q4 and their best win was Austin Peay, you realize that this team has zero shot at an at large but they legit can win the conference tourney. If they do that is when we will consider Belmont on this list and their case is much stronger and they may have a serious chance of a bid.
21. (59) BUTLER 16-14/(70) XAVIER 16-14: Going to combine these two schools who just met tonight and Butler won the game which knocked Xavier back down while at least kept a flickering light for Butler. Ultimately the key thing to look at is both schools have 14 losses. Remember only one school has ever received an at large bid with 15 losses and I would say Texas with 16 losses would get in over either any of these schools with 15 losses. Butler has some nice non conference wins over Ole Miss and Florida and Xavier has that win over Villanova. Just too much to overcome here and either school would seem to have a legit shot at winning the wide open Big East tourney and get the automatic bid.
LAST 4 IN: SETON HALL, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, TCU, TEMPLE
LAST 4 OUT: CLEMSON, INDIANA, GEORGETOWN, CREIGHTON
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