Blue Ribbon CBB Preview Extremely Low On RU This Season

[NewJerseyHawk]

I don't need to read Blue Ribbon, ESPN or anything else to know that the B1G provides top competition from Top to Bottom. The leagues best player (Dawson Garcia) might be on one of the rosters that lost the most via the portal (Minnesota).

When you have a player that is well known leave via the portal, that program is immediately going to be downgraded as we leave the spring. That is what happened to RU with Cliff leaving for Alabama......it can be said that the same thing happened to Seton Hall, with Kadary Richmond leaving for St Johns.

The sports media is for the most part lazy and have short attention spans. St John's getting Richmond immediately props them up, because he is a known quantity. The media never takes into account any sort of adjustment period, new system, new coaches, new style of play....

The portal is how schools are judged, which is why Blue Ribbon mentions Derkack and ignores everything else that was done.....Derkack was a popular name in the portal and averaged 17PPG.....because his name was associated with other Power 5 programs in recruiting, his name will be mentioned before Acuff, who essentially had a much less publicized recruiting cycle. Acuff averaged more PPG in a tougher league (MAC) than Derkack (Northeast).

Once you add in 3 new schools with known coaches like Mick Cronin (UCLA) Musselman (USC) and Dana Altman (Oregon), those coaches are held in higher regard than Pike. Whether that's fair or not, it is the reality of their resumes. Mix in Purdue, Indiana Ohio State, Dusty May fresh off a Final Four at FIU and now at Michigan and someone has to be picked 14th through 18th.

This is a publicity based sport......and when in doubt, pick the school with the more known fanbase or the coaches that just have been to a NCAA Sweet 16 recently. There's never going to be a time where RU, Penn State, Nebraska, Minnesota or Washington are going to be picked higher than a UCLA, Indiana, Ohio State or Michigan in a preseason ranking unless it is 1000% clearly obvious that the Blue blood program has literally no players.

If a Blue blood recruits name brand players, they're going to be picked higher, plain and simple. The good news is the RAC is still here and the program has rebuilt its bench, rebounding and defense should be fine.

I maintain what I posted a couple of weeks ago, there should be 5 to 6 teams tied at 10-10 in the conference and it's a league that should get 10 to 11 NCAA bids.

 

[Caliknight]

Imo the West Coast teams are going to struggle. That's a TON of travel for them. And especially at USC, UCLA, and Washington there will be a lot of visiting fans in their buildings night in night out for all the West Coast alums.

Having Washington 10th is pretty wild.

Travel is overrated. These guys are highly trained athletes traveling on charter planes. It can’t get any easier.

 

[fatsam98]

Travel is overrated. These guys are highly trained athletes traveling on charter planes. It can’t get any easier.

I was thinking more in terms of jet lag. Going east sucks

 

[Caliknight]

I was thinking more in terms of jet lag. Going east sucks

It's not ideal from a sleeping standpoint but playing is going to be harder for eastern teams coming out West. Tip offs will be at 10:30PM on their internal clocks.

 

[RUPete]

I think we will be a bubble team/double digit seed. Hoping for better. But really just get in the tournament and anything can happen.

What people are discounting is say Ace or Dylan get an injury, even a minor one. They may shut it down and focus on the draft.

True. Kyrie barely played at Duke.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I think travel and freshman walls and playing too many minutes is UNDERRATED

Especially freshman

 

[RUPete]

I think travel and freshman walls and playing too many minutes is UNDERRATED

Especially freshman

Normally, I would agree with you, but Ace and Dylan maintained a pretty aggressive tournament/travel schedule last year.

 

[NickRU714]

Normally, I would agree with you, but Ace and Dylan maintained a pretty aggressive tournament/travel schedule last year.

This is somewhat my thought as well.
When was the last time they only played 2 games in a week for months on end.

Weren’t they playing 2-3 games in some weekends up until they got on campus?

 

[RUPete]

This is somewhat my thought as well.
When was the last time they only played 2 games in a week for months on end.

Weren’t they playing 2-3 games in some weekends up until they got on campus?

Didn't he even go to Hungary last year or was that two years ago?

 

[Degaz-RU]

This is somewhat my thought as well.
When was the last time they only played 2 games in a week for months on end.

Weren’t they playing 2-3 games in some weekends up until they got on campus?

Greene will respond that high school players don't expend the same energy in AAU games because they don't really play defense.

There might be a kernel of truth to that, but playing 5 games in two days is still pretty taxing.

 

[superfan01]

Only thing more silly, wrong and clueless then a CBB article is a @knightfan7 post.

 

[knightfan7]

Only thing more silly, wrong and clueless then a CBB article is a @knightfan7 post.

Are you the A-Hole with multiple handles?

 

[superfan01]

Are you the A-Hole with multiple handles?

huh. What are you talking about? You have an epic whiff in your post and then attack others. Take responsibility and show some class for once.
I have been posting on this board while you were in diapers, son.

 

[knightfan7]

huh. What are you talking about? You have an epic whiff in your post and then attack others. Take responsibility and show some class for once.

And you're a loser with nothing else in your life so you attack other members to make yourself feel better..

Sad existence there guy

 

[RUPete]

And you're a loser with nothing else in your life so you attack other members to make yourself feel better..

Sad existence there guy

Ignore him. He went after me with multiple handles with some weird Michael Kay - Francesa attack. He’s unbalanced to say the least.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Normally, I would agree with you, but Ace and Dylan maintained a pretty aggressive tournament/travel schedule last year.

no where near what they will go through this year.

There was no defense played and no pressure to win.

 

[RUPete]

no where near what they will go through this year.

There was no defense played and no pressure to win.

Knew it! Volume was still there. You worry way too much.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Knew it! Volume was still there. You worry way too much.

Volume was on 2 or 3. It will be turned up!

We need to stay ahead comfortably of NCAA at large pace so Pike can put it on cruise control from late Jan to late Feb.

 

[wheezer]

If the national media doesn't project RU as a Sweet 16 type of team, are some of you still holding Pike to that type of year?

I get pulled in both directions
Yes, they have the talent to go a long way, but the main talent is two freshmen....
Who will be going up against seasoned and big, players in the big ten

How far above the competition can they play, if at all?
How many games can be lost by freshman jitters or mistakes....or none of those?

We shall see

 

[RUich]

As excited as I am to get this season rolling, you have to think that anyone outside of our fan base should be a bit wondering just how a virtually reconstructed team will do. Hopefully, they will click quickly and be able to control the teams they will be playing.

 

[RUGiddy777]

 

[Morrischiano]

Didn't Dylan and Ace get rated as the best freshman duo in the BIG. ? Also the supporting cast up to 10 players are the best we have had in the last 10 years or maybe ever.

Teams need time to jell. We literally only have 3 returning players and only one who played significant minutes. That is the biggest season risk for us. It might take all of Nov , Dec and January for this team to coalesce. Unfortunately, the schedule is a real grinder after only 5 games in November.

 

[NickRU714]

If the national media doesn't project RU as a Sweet 16 type of team, are some of you still holding Pike to that type of year?

When the national media doesn't project as a S16 team - it seems people call them clueless and don't understand basketball.

But then when we are projected as a S16 team it seems people are quick to play it down and not want to hold HC Pike to that standard.

Kinda of trying to have it both ways.
Honestly, very similar to the football team where it seems many want to be recognized for a higher expectation but don't want the criticism if that expectation isn't met.

 

[Degaz-RU]

Teams need time to jell. We literally only have 3 returning players and only one who played significant minutes. That is the biggest season risk for us. It might take all of Nov , Dec and January for this team to coalesce. Unfortunately, the schedule is a real grinder after only 5 games in November.

This is the way of the world in CBB now, so most teams will be going through the acclimation/gelling process early on, not just Rutgers. Granted, 9 new players and only 3 returnees is probably more extreme than most teams, but I think that the roster "construction" is so good this year -- with clearly defined roles for everyone -- that it will be easier for the team to gel.

 

[RUGiddy777]

This is the way of the world in CBB now, so most teams will be going through the acclimation/gelling process early on, not just Rutgers. Granted, 9 new players and only 3 returnees is probably more extreme than most teams, but I think that the roster "construction" is so good this year -- with clearly defined roles for everyone -- that it will be easier for the team to gel.

I think having the most talented PG in the nation will also help.

 

[Westcoast]

I was thinking more in terms of jet lag. Going east sucks

3 Hr jet lag is pretty much meaningless - I've never experienced jet lag over such a small time differential.

 

[RUInsanity]

When the national media doesn't project as a S16 team - it seems people call them clueless and don't understand basketball.

But then when we are projected as a S16 team it seems people are quick to play it down and not want to hold HC Pike to that standard.

Kinda of trying to have it both ways.
Honestly, very similar to the football team where it seems many want to be recognized for a higher expectation but don't want the criticism if that expectation isn't met.

I dunno, think it's a mixed bag. Some fans are continually negative and some positive....either way they tend to selectively cling or denigrate the media narratives.

Personally, I would like to see the background commentary/analysis on their projections. Without that, it's just a list.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

3 Hr jet lag is pretty much meaningless - I've never experienced jet lag over such a small time differential.

But did you play a sporting event shortly after arriving?

 

[Knight Owl]

On the other hand #25 in ESPN WTE Top 25:

25. Rutgers Scarlet Knights​

Previous ranking: 25


Are Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper ready to carry Rutgers? This is going to be the most anticipated season in Rutgers men's basketball history. The Scarlet Knights are bringing in Bailey and Harper, two of the top three picks in ESPN's most recent 2025 NBA mock draft. And Steve Pikiell is going to rely on both heavily from day one. He has surrounded them with veteran transfers, but Rutgers' success this season will be determined by how quickly its two star freshmen can produce.

Projected starting lineup

Dylan Harper (No. 4 in ESPN 100)
Jeremiah Williams (12.2 PPG)
Jordan Derkack (17.0 PPG at Merrimack)
Ace Bailey (No. 2 in ESPN 100)
Zach Martini (8.4 PPG at Princeton)

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...-way-too-early-top-25-rankings-2024-25-season

I could see Zach starting at the “5” and then sliding over to the “4” when Ogbole comes in. Lathan is certainly the X factor and he will determine how many minutes Zach and Ogbole play. Otherwise Zach has to play over 20 mpg split between the 5 and 4 IMHO.

 

[RUChoppin]

But did you play a sporting event shortly after arriving?

Is think the situations with most impact would be flying east for a noon game and flying west for a 8pm game.

 

[lion1983]

I could see Zach starting at the “5” and then sliding over to the “4” when Ogbole comes in. Lathan is certainly the X factor and he will determine how many minutes Zach and Ogbole play. Otherwise Zach has to play over 20 mpg split between the 5 and 4 IMHO.

I would be very surprised if the season does not start with Ogbole as the starter at the 5, Martini at the 4. That does not mean Ogbole is on the court at the end of the game, nor for more than 15 minutes per game.

I also suspect Martini plays more than 20 mpg in any case - perhaps 25 mpg (20 at the 4 and 5 at the 5?) - no evidence, just my opinion.

I do agree that Sommerville (and Ogbole, too) is a big X factor: How many minutes can Sommerville productively play, and/or has Ogbole actually improved enough to productively play 15 mpg - or even more.

As I have posted before, and until proven otherwise in real games, I suspect Pikiell will want one of Martini OR Hayes on the court at nearly all times - that 3-point shooting, if as good as we hope (i.e. 38% to 40% or better) will be important to open up the lanes for everyone else (i.e. Harper, Bailey, Williams, Acuff ... even Derkack) ... the 2 3-point shooters on the court at the same time may happen from time to time, but both on the court at the same time DOES sacrifice some defense, maybe more than the RU staf may desire. Of course, at the end of the game, if scoring is needed, I could see a line-up of Harper, Bailey, Williams, Martini and Hayes.

 

[Knight Owl]

I would be very surprised if the season does not start with Ogbole as the starter at the 5, Martini at the 4. That does not mean Ogbole is on the court at the end of the game, nor for more than 15 minutes per game.

I also suspect Martini plays more than 20 mpg in any case - perhaps 25 mpg (20 at the 4 and 5 at the 5?) - no evidence, just my opinion.

I do agree that Sommerville (and Ogbole, too) is a big X factor: How many minutes can Sommerville productively play, and/or has Ogbole actually improved enough to productively play 15 mpg - or even more.

As I have posted before, and until proven otherwise in real games, I suspect Pikiell will want one of Martini OR Hayes on the court at nearly all times - that 3-point shooting, if as good as we hope (i.e. 38% to 40% or better) will be important to open up the lanes for everyone else (i.e. Harper, Bailey, Williams, Acuff ... even Derkack) ... the 2 3-point shooters on the court at the same time may happen from time to time, but both on the court at the same time DOES sacrifice some defense, maybe more than the RU staf may desire. Of course, at the end of the game, if scoring is needed, I could see a line-up of Harper, Bailey, Williams, Martini and Hayes.

I think the D and rebounding of Ogbole will get him more than 15 minutes per game even if he’s not scoring efficiently. Seems like a poor rebounding team overall unless Ace takes it upon himself to be a top rebounder. The big guards should help in the rebounding area as well.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Greene will respond that high school players don't expend the same energy in AAU games because they don't really play defense.

There might be a kernel of truth to that, but playing 5 games in two days is still pretty taxing.

Ha Ha Ha...

You are right.

Those AAU 5 games in 2 days in somewhere in between playing real games and playing 7 hours of pick up basketball. I chose closer to pick up basketball.

As I have said countless times in broken record fashion
1. I have concerns about playing offense after expending energy on D 15 seconds before. I expect a hit to 3 pt fg%
2. I have concerns about long term with too many minutes, freshman wall, etc.

#1, to me, is the bigger issue by far. These guys may have #2 only as a small impact based on things said above.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Is think the situations with most impact would be flying east for a noon game and flying west for a 8pm game.

If we have
Tuesday home
Saturday west coast
Wednesday home
Sunday east coast

The bolded are the games where the impact is more apt to happen

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I think the D and rebounding of Ogbole will get him more than 15 minutes per game even if he’s not scoring efficiently. Seems like a poor rebounding team overall unless Ace takes it upon himself to be a top rebounder. The big guards should help in the rebounding area as well.

I really hope so. I am thinking the biggest impact current unknown factor is ogobole. If he is 20+ minutes playable I am very confident things will all work out else where based on the quantity of bodies.

 

[Degaz-RU]

Ha Ha Ha...

You are right.

Those AAU 5 games in 2 days in somewhere in between playing real games and playing 7 hours of pick up basketball. I chose closer to pick up basketball.

As I have said countless times in broken record fashion
1. I have concerns about playing offense after expending energy on D 15 seconds before. I expect a hit to 3 pt fg%
2. I have concerns about long term with too many minutes, freshman wall, etc.

#1, to me, is the bigger issue by far. These guys may have #2 only as a small impact based on things said above.

If you had any tech savvy, you'd hack into those biometric devices the players wear during the games so that you could see their heart rates.

Just bustin on you.

 

[mikeyo]

I mean its going to be a crazy Big Ten. We arguably have the most upside out of any team, but it does rely on the freshmen being good for us to be good. It would be nice if we didn't have to be so reliant, but if they are good, which I think at the very least Dylan has the chance to be special in college, the team should be fine. I will say its very weird how Illinois is insanely high when they're arguably just as reliant on lower rated freshmen and has as much of an unproven frontcourt as we do.

We'll see if they were worth the money. How the money is allocated is going to be how programs are judged from now on. Just like professional sports

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If you had any tech savvy, you'd hack into those biometric devices the players wear during the games so that you could see their heart rates.

Just bustin on you.

Worse is I would have hijacked Gavin's to make his heart rate 172 so the staff would hook him after 1 possession.

In all seriousness those devices are very useful. I am sure they look at the data from both a short and long term perspective. Early in the season they get a good baseline.

 

[Scarlet Craig]

Let me just say that even thinking more conservatively about this year, I don't see this happening, but Blue Ribbon's college hoops preview is picking Rutgers to finish 15th in the 18-team Big Ten...If an implosion like that happens with these two freshmen, it would be very surprising/ugly.

College Basketball Publication Predicts Purdue's Place in 2024-25 Big Ten Standings

Matt Painter has led Purdue to back-to-back regular season Big Ten titles. Will the Boilers win it again? A college basketball publication made its prediction.

www.si.com

Blue Ribbon? More like BOO Ribbon.

Thanks folks, I'm here all week.

 

[robjknight]

Las Vegas will change their opinions. Even Katz thinks that Harper as a freshman may be the best guard in the league. He has size, strength, maturity and skills. His maturity makes him equal to being a Junior. If you watched Harper, Bailey and Flagg in some of the National tournament games, they stood out as superior to all the other good
High school seniors in the country.