Bo melton tweet -Good News

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

Thats rich I quote you directly and I have a reading comprehension problem. Got it.

Vegas I understand recruiting. I know that 2-3 teams from each conference have a legitimate shot at a national level recruiting class. And those 2-3 teams are dynamic depending on year and coaching turnover. 95% of the top 15-35 level recruiting classes are made up of the recruits we are talking about in this thread. Including the 2 names I mentioned earlier on your team that you disrespected with the participation trophy comment.

If you can recruit consistently from the top 30 kids in your state/region and round them out with some top tier talent you have yourself a good recruiting class.

Exactly. You quoted me saying, "But in terms of winning games, he's not very important" in reference to an imaginary recruit ranked 27th in his state, in an effort to make the point that when you consider the correlation between recruiting and winning, said player hardly counts as a recruiting victory for a head coach.

And from that, you claimed I said it's "not worth recruiting kids beyond the top 10." C'mon, man. Step up your quoting/context game.

That said, let's take a look at your numbers here. Your first fatal flaw is putting classes ranked 15th and 35th in the same discussion. There is a world of difference there.

Notre Dame, Stanford, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Penn State ranked 15-20 in the 247 Composite for the 2016 cycle. Between them they brought in 54 four- and five-star recruits. The teams ranked 30-35 (Pitt, Cal, Wisconsin, Duke, Kentucky and Houston)? 17. World of difference.

As far as these level of classes being 95% comprised of lower-rated recruits: Wrong again. Let's keep the barometer low and count any player ranked 20th or worse in his state a "lower-rated" kid. Those same five programs that finished 15-20 last year had a total of 54 kids that would qualify. Out of 130 total commits. That's only about 40% of the makeup of their collective classes. By comparison, the programs ranked 30-35 had 92 players in total who were 20th or worse in their state, or about 65%.

And you need to keep in mind that when you're talking about programs that recruit nationally like a Notre Dame, or those like A&M, Oklahoma, Cal and Houston who largely target talent-rich states like Florida, California and Texas, that the 25th or 30th best kid in those states is still pretty damn good compared with that same level of player in a smaller state like New Jersey.

So, once again, Ash has been an improvement from Flood on the recruiting trail. But not a major one, at least yet. Time will tell, of course, but unless Ash can convince more, yes, top-10 kids to stay home, and also pick his spots in PA, the DMV and nationally, RU will struggle nine seasons out of 10 to reach bowl eligibility. Many people on this board, when watching Flood struggle to recruit, convinced themselves that so many lower-ranked kids were "diamonds in the rough." Of course, most of them weren't. Don't repeat that. Most kids who aren't in that upper tier as recruits won't be as college players.

 

[shields]

Right now I just want to get a good quarterback in here. And Flood who was a disaster and one of the kids he should have recruited was jason Cabinda who I saw play in high school.

 

[kupuna133]

Exactly. You quoted me saying, "But in terms of winning games, he's not very important" in reference to an imaginary recruit ranked 27th in his state, in an effort to make the point that when you consider the correlation between recruiting and winning, said player hardly counts as a recruiting victory for a head coach.

And from that, you claimed I said it's "not worth recruiting kids beyond the top 10." C'mon, man. Step up your quoting/context game.

That said, let's take a look at your numbers here. Your first fatal flaw is putting classes ranked 15th and 35th in the same discussion. There is a world of difference there.

Notre Dame, Stanford, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Penn State ranked 15-20 in the 247 Composite for the 2016 cycle. Between them they brought in 54 four- and five-star recruits. The teams ranked 30-35 (Pitt, Cal, Wisconsin, Duke, Kentucky and Houston)? 17. World of difference.

As far as these level of classes being 95% comprised of lower-rated recruits: Wrong again. Let's keep the barometer low and count any player ranked 20th or worse in his state a "lower-rated" kid. Those same five programs that finished 15-20 last year had a total of 54 kids that would qualify. Out of 130 total commits. That's only about 40% of the makeup of their collective classes. By comparison, the programs ranked 30-35 had 92 players in total who were 20th or worse in their state, or about 65%.

And you need to keep in mind that when you're talking about programs that recruit nationally like a Notre Dame, or those like A&M, Oklahoma, Cal and Houston who largely target talent-rich states like Florida, California and Texas, that the 25th or 30th best kid in those states is still pretty damn good compared with that same level of player in a smaller state like New Jersey.

So, once again, Ash has been an improvement from Flood on the recruiting trail. But a major one, at least yet. Time will tell, of course, but unless Ash can convince more, yes, top-10 kids to stay home, and also pick his spots in PA, the DMV and nationally, RU will struggle nine seasons out of 10 to reach bowl eligibility.

Now who has a reading comprehension problem. Outside of the true national programs 95% of the rosters are made up of the in state/regional top 35 players we are talking about in this thread. Hopefully more heavily waited to the higher end with a couple elite talent recruits sprinkled in. No one outside of you said lower level recruits.

Regarding your earlier top 10 comment...Going back to Ash, you lose me with your charge that one of his goals is to keep half of the state's top 20 at home. Because it isn't. If he keeps the players ranked 11-20, the blowouts will continue. Your words not mine.

You have the reading comprehension problem and your narrative changes from post to post.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

Now who has a reading comprehension problem. Outside of the true national programs 95% of the rosters are made up of the in state/regional top 35 players we are talking about in this thread. Hopefully more heavily waited to the higher end with a couple elite talent recruits sprinkled in. No one outside of you said lower level recruits.

Regarding your earlier top 10 comment...Going back to Ash, you lose me with your charge that one of his goals is to keep half of the state's top 20 at home. Because it isn't. If he keeps the players ranked 11-20, the blowouts will continue. Your words not mine.

You have the reading comprehension problem and your narrative changes from post to post.

At this point I think you have to be trolling me.

Keep striking out more often than you hit home runs with New Jersey's best players and see where that gets you. Good luck.

 

[waveslider]

Bennet Jackson was an explosive collegiate player who made an impact in the NFL. If you don't know who he is you're not a big football fan, especially a local fan.

Big impact in the NFL? Really he was on the giants practice squad.

 

[kupuna133]

At this point I think you have to be trolling me.

Keep striking out more often than you hit home runs with New Jersey's best players and see where that gets you. Good luck.

I am on my board and I am trolling you! That's a good one.

I am not sure how you deducted that from what was written but I guess reading comprehension and remembering what you post are not your strong suits.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

Big impact in the NFL? Really he was on the giants practice squad.

I corrected this back on p. 1.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

I am on my board and I am trolling you! That's a good one.

I am not sure how you deducted that from what was written but I guess reading comprehension and remembering what you post are not your strong suits.

Dude, let me know how I've forgotten what I've posted. My point throughout our entire back and forth is that Ash is not going to succeed if he doesn't bring in top-level recruits, and that recruits ranked, say, 27th in their state are not the type of kid, in general, to lead to many wins by your favorite college team.

Any other questions? I'll try to answer them as clearly and directly as possible for you.

Just do me one solid, since you're big on quotes. Let me know how saying a kid ranked, hypothetically, 27th in the state is not a big recruiting get equates to saying coaches shouldn't bother with kids outside of the top 10. Humor me.

 

[waveslider]

Fcuk Bennet Jackson. Another Nj hater.

 

[waveslider]

Don't forget Fogg. I know he's not NJ but still very highly rated, and at a huge position of need. Plus we have Mitchell coming in next year.

Fogg is NJ, was born in Neptune/ Asbury park. Mom moved to Maryland because of work.

 

[kupuna133]

Dude, let me know how I've forgotten what I've posted. My point throughout our entire back and forth is that Ash is not going to succeed if he doesn't bring in top-level recruits, and that recruits ranked, say, 27th in their state are not the type of kid, in general, to lead to many wins by your favorite college team.

Any other questions? I'll try to answer them as clearly and directly as possible for you.

Just do me one solid, since you're big on quotes. Let me know how saying a kid ranked, hypothetically, 27th in the state is not a big recruiting get equates to saying coaches shouldn't bother with kids outside of the top 10. Humor me.

That has not been your narrative. Your narrative was to come here and put down our recruits. When you said 27th recruit I showed you what a 27th ranked recruit looked like on your own almighty Penn State. Making it reality vs "hypothetical" you changed that narrative. When I pointed out what recruiting classes look like outside of the true top 15 "national recruiting" classes you selectively chose stats of lesser recruits to fit your narrative. Just go away..

Dude, let me know how I've forgotten what I've posted. My point throughout our entire back and forth is that Ash is not going to succeed if he doesn't bring in top-level recruits, and that recruits ranked, say, 27th in their state are not the type of kid, in general, to lead to many wins by your favorite college team.

Any other questions? I'll try to answer them as clearly and directly as possible for you.

Just do me one solid, since you're big on quotes. Let me know how saying a kid ranked, hypothetically, 27th in the state is not a big recruiting get equates to saying coaches shouldn't bother with kids outside of the top 10. Humor me.

I have no questions for you. Why would I ask you question? When asking you questions directly you change the narrative. Your quotes become hypothetical when challenged.

 

[waveslider]

Hmm, since bennet jackshit is out of football I wonder where he lives? Probobly NJ . I think he should move to South Bend.

 

[BlockR]

is Melton enrolling early like Clark?

 

[RUChoppin]

So, once again, Ash has been an improvement from Flood on the recruiting trail. But not a major one, at least yet.

Flood's recruiting classes:
2013 - 44th (1 4*, dismissed from team prior to 2015 season)
2014 - 58th
2015 - 54th (1 4*, transferred by Dec 2015)
2016 - 78th (mostly Flood guys, Ash hired <2 months before signing day)

In four seasons, 2 players ranked better than 3 stars. One didn't last a full season, and one was dismissed heading into his junior year.

Right now, Ash already has 3 four-star players committed for next year, with the potential for a couple more. In one season, that's more than we had under Flood's entire tenure. If we can come in 35th? That's a big step up over the last four seasons with Ash's first full recruiting class.

Just looking at NJ recruiting:
2013 - 1 Top 10, 5 Top 25
2014 - 0 Top 10, 5 Top 25
2015 - 0 Top 10, 3 Top 25
2016 - 0 Top 10, 3 Top 25

2017 (so far) - 2 Top 10, 6 Top 25... with a decent shot at a few others in the Top 10 (Bell, Hand, Bolds), and a few more in the Top 11-25. We already have twice as many Top 10 NJ players than the past four seasons combined, and may end up with more Top 25 players than the last three seasons combined.

I'd say Ash has made a solid step in the right direction for his first year building relationships in the state. If he can take the 2018 class into the Top 25, we could really start to see some significant improvement in 2018 and beyond.

 

[WhiteBus]

Wow NJ top ten! where would they be rated in Florida?

Top 5

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

Flood's recruiting classes:
2013 - 44th (1 4*, dismissed from team prior to 2015 season)
2014 - 58th
2015 - 54th (1 4*, transferred by Dec 2015)
2016 - 78th (mostly Flood guys, Ash hired 2 months before signing day)

In four seasons, 2 players ranked better than 3 stars. One didn't last a full season, and one was dismissed heading into his junior year.

Right now, Ash already has 3 four-star players committed for next year, with the potential for a couple more. In one season, that's more than we had under Flood's entire tenure. If we can come in 35th? That's a big step up over the last four seasons with Ash's first full recruiting class.

Just looking at NJ recruiting:
2013 - 1 Top 10, 5 Top 25
2014 - 0 Top 10, 5 Top 25
2015 - 0 Top 10, 3 Top 25
2016 - 0 Top 10, 3 Top 25

2017 (so far) - 2 Top 10, 6 Top 25... with a decent shot at a few others in the Top 10 (Bell, Hand, Bolds), and a few more in the Top 11-25. We already have twice as many Top 10 NJ players than the past four seasons combined, and may end up with more Top 25 players than the last three seasons combined.

I'd say Ash has made a solid step in the right direction for his first year building relationships in the state. If he can take the 2018 class into the Top 25, we could really start to see some significant improvement in 2018 and beyond.

Data from the 247 Composite:

The average Flood class finished 55th in the country, with 1 four-star recruit, and an average player rating of 81.46. This Ash class is currently 27th in the country, with 2 four-star recruits, and an average player rating of 84.52.

It's unquestionably a step up from the players Flood brought in, but given that I expect RU's class to finish up closer to 40th nationally than 25th come Signing Day, I maintain that Ash hasn't made quite the leap people here believe.

That doesn't mean it can't happen moving forward.

 

[RUChoppin]

Data from the 247 Composite:

The average Flood class finished 55th in the country, with 1 four-star recruit, and an average player rating of 81.46. This Ash class is currently 27th in the country, with 2 four-star recruits, and an average player rating of 84.52.

It's unquestionably a step up from the players Flood brought in, but given that I expect RU's class to finish up closer to 40th nationally than 25th come Signing Day, I maintain that Ash hasn't made quite the leap people here believe.

That doesn't mean it can't happen moving forward.

Want to use 247? Sure.

2012 - 24th (1 five star, 4 four star.... Schiano's last class)

2013 - 50th (1 four star, dismissed 2015)
2014 - 53rd (0 four star... says there is one in the team ranking, but not in that year's commit list)
2015 - 56th (1 four star, transferred out 2015)
2016 - 61st (1 four star, transfer from Michigan brought in by Ash)

2017 - 27th (so far) (2 four stars. Crystal ball has four-star Bell at 63% RU)

If Bell does commit to RU, that'll be 4 four-star players that Ash has brought in since he got here.... twice as many as the prior staff over four years.

Even if we shake out closer to 40th, that's a 20-plus-rank jump in a single year that reversed the steady backward slide of the prior four years.

If Ash and staff can manage to land all of Bell, Martin, Bolds, and Hand.... it would be a great first class, definitely something to build on going into 2018.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

Want to use 247? Sure.

2012 - 24th (1 five star, 4 four star.... Schiano's last class)

2013 - 50th (1 four star, dismissed 2015)
2014 - 53rd (0 four star... says there is one in the team ranking, but not in that year's commit list)
2015 - 56th (1 four star, transferred out 2015)
2016 - 61st (1 four star, transfer from Michigan brought in by Ash)

2017 - 27th (so far) (2 four stars. Crystal ball has four-star Bell at 63% RU)

If Bell does commit to RU, that'll be 4 four-star players that Ash has brought in since he got here.... twice as many as the prior staff over four years.

Even if we shake out closer to 40th, that's a 20-plus-rank jump in a single year that reversed the steady backward slide of the prior four years.

If Ash and staff can manage to land all of Bell, Martin, Bolds, and Hand.... it would be a great first class, definitely something to build on going into 2018.

If you compare the 2017 class to only the 2016 class, when Flood really went in the toilet, then Ash has made a much larger jump. I was under the impression we were comparing him to Flood in general, and as of now the average player rating of 84.52 in Ash classes, while clearly better than Flood's 81.46 average, is not quite the miraculous turnaround I think Ash gets credit for from many here. And considering it's far down the list nationally, IMO you guys have given Ash a little too much credit in general, because you're viewing his performance compared with Flood's.

Again, he has things headed in the right direction. IF you guys end up with a couple of other four-star recruits, that changes things. IF Taylor and two or three other current verbals don't bolt, that will be helpful. It's too early to really judge the class as a whole, though I certainly concede this cycle has a chance to be MUCH better than the Flood days. I just don't see a gigantic leap as of October 11.

 

[ScarletNut]

Exactly. You quoted me saying, "But in terms of winning games, he's not very important" in reference to an imaginary recruit ranked 27th in his state, in an effort to make the point that when you consider the correlation between recruiting and winning, said player hardly counts as a recruiting victory for a head coach.

And from that, you claimed I said it's "not worth recruiting kids beyond the top 10." C'mon, man. Step up your quoting/context game.

That said, let's take a look at your numbers here. Your first fatal flaw is putting classes ranked 15th and 35th in the same discussion. There is a world of difference there.

Notre Dame, Stanford, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Penn State ranked 15-20 in the 247 Composite for the 2016 cycle. Between them they brought in 54 four- and five-star recruits. The teams ranked 30-35 (Pitt, Cal, Wisconsin, Duke, Kentucky and Houston)? 17. World of difference.

As far as these level of classes being 95% comprised of lower-rated recruits: Wrong again. Let's keep the barometer low and count any player ranked 20th or worse in his state a "lower-rated" kid. Those same five programs that finished 15-20 last year had a total of 54 kids that would qualify. Out of 130 total commits. That's only about 40% of the makeup of their collective classes. By comparison, the programs ranked 30-35 had 92 players in total who were 20th or worse in their state, or about 65%.

And you need to keep in mind that when you're talking about programs that recruit nationally like a Notre Dame, or those like A&M, Oklahoma, Cal and Houston who largely target talent-rich states like Florida, California and Texas, that the 25th or 30th best kid in those states is still pretty damn good compared with that same level of player in a smaller state like New Jersey.

So, once again, Ash has been an improvement from Flood on the recruiting trail. But not a major one, at least yet. Time will tell, of course, but unless Ash can convince more, yes, top-10 kids to stay home, and also pick his spots in PA, the DMV and nationally, RU will struggle nine seasons out of 10 to reach bowl eligibility. Many people on this board, when watching Flood struggle to recruit, convinced themselves that so many lower-ranked kids were "diamonds in the rough." Of course, most of them weren't. Don't repeat that. Most kids who aren't in that upper tier as recruits won't be as college players.

Great post Cheesesteak! Thanks for taking the time to analyze the data. I always appreciate posts that are backed with facts.

 

[kupuna133]

Great post Cheesesteak! Thanks for taking the time to analyze the data. I always appreciate posts that are backed with facts.

What facts? When challenged on his numbers he made them hypothetical. When choosing data he distorted it to fit his narrative. Those are not facts.

 

[RUChoppin]

If you compare the 2017 class to only the 2016 class, when Flood really went in the toilet, then Ash has made a much larger jump. I was under the impression we were comparing him to Flood in general, and as of now the average player rating of 84.52 in Ash classes, while clearly better than Flood's 81.46 average, is not quite the miraculous turnaround I think Ash gets credit for from many here.

Again, he has things headed in the right direction. IF you guys end up with a couple of other four-star recruits, that changes things. IF Taylor and two or three other current verbals don't bolt, that will be helpful. It's too early to really judge the class as a whole, though I certainly concede this cycle has a chance to be MUCH better than the Flood days. I just don't see a gigantic leap as of October 11.

Flood's classes were on a downward slide. And the 247 ranking for 2016 includes Ahmir Mitchell, who wasn't actually part of that recruiting class but signed in September of this year as a transfer from Michigan. If you notice, the Rivals ranking doesn't include Mitchell and has us ranked 78th in 2016 (compared to 247's 61st including him)... also, 4 of the top 6 players in the 2016 class (per 247) were brought in by Ash.

Compared to where recruiting would have been this year if Flood had stayed, we are in a far, far better place. Just pulling out of the nose dive and gaining some altitude is a great first step... pulling in the best class since 2012 would be another. Then we see if he can build on it and pull in an even better class in 2018.

And it is definitely still early. We've got a lot of time yet before signing day, and a lot can change. If Ash can keep the guys we currently have and pick up a few of the guys 247 has as Rutgers leans (or 50/50s), it will be a very good first full recruiting class to build off of.

 

[AntiG]

Want to use 247? Sure.

2012 - 24th (1 five star, 4 four star.... Schiano's last class)

2013 - 50th (1 four star, dismissed 2015)
2014 - 53rd (0 four star... says there is one in the team ranking, but not in that year's commit list)
2015 - 56th (1 four star, transferred out 2015)
2016 - 61st (1 four star, transfer from Michigan brought in by Ash)

2017 - 27th (so far) (2 four stars. Crystal ball has four-star Bell at 63% RU)

If Bell does commit to RU, that'll be 4 four-star players that Ash has brought in since he got here.... twice as many as the prior staff over four years.

Even if we shake out closer to 40th, that's a 20-plus-rank jump in a single year that reversed the steady backward slide of the prior four years.

If Ash and staff can manage to land all of Bell, Martin, Bolds, and Hand.... it would be a great first class, definitely something to build on going into 2018.

The way Lewis and Taylor are getting talked about, both could potentially end up 4 star as well.

Clark said he is trying hard to recruit Wade-Perry over here (though I doubt he'd pass up a scholarship to Stanford).

 

[ScarletNut]

What facts? When challenged on his numbers he made them hypothetical. When choosing data he distorted it to fit his narrative. Those are not facts.

The post I quoted was fact and I checked the data to confirm. Stars do matter, especially when recruited in significant numbers. An occasional 4 star here and there will have a higher likelihood of flaming out than a class full of 4 and 5 stars. Not saying we could ever have a class full of 4 and 5 star recruits, but a 4 star with 1 P5 offer is suspect. A 3 star with 10+ P5 offers gets me more excited. The committable offers are the most important data point IMO, followed by the star ranking. If they both jive, even better.

 

[demauroj]

I realize we are in the era of "everybody gets a trophy," but c'mon, if you're not winning among the elite recruits, you're not winning on the field. I'm sure the 27th-ranked kid is loved dearly by his friends and family, and would be welcomed by the alumni at any school he commits to. But in terms of winning games, he's not very important.

Last I checked A Football roster has 85 players.
Also last I check we are talking about the 25th bast player at ALL positions, not the 25th Player a his poisition.

If you can 1/3 or more of your class can be from the top 30 and 30% of the top ten of more in your state, espiecially NJ, then you are going to be fine.
In fact you would likely be in the top 25 in recruiting annually with 1/3 of the top 30 from NJ. Schiano proved that with his last class ( this RS senior Class).

 

[kupuna133]

The post I quoted was fact and I checked the data to confirm. Stars do matter, especially when recruited in significant numbers. An occasional 4 star here and there will have a higher likelihood of flaming out than a class full of 4 and 5 stars. Not saying we could ever have a class full of 4 and 5 star recruits, but a 4 star with 1 P5 offer is suspect. A 3 star with 10+ P5 offers gets me more excited. The committable offers are the most important data point IMO, followed by the star ranking. If they both jive, even better.

Absolutely stars matter. That was never the argument. The argument was that to be successful you have to keep home grown talent home. If you could keep 50% of the top 35 in your region at home and round them out you will have a successful product. He took that to mean RU will only keep the bottom half at home.

When he was shown what his hypothetical #27 NJ talent looked like he changed the narrative. (his PSU team has 2 long term starters that were #23 and #26 on their roster right now)
When he was told that Ash's goal was to keep 50% of the top 20 at home he took that to mean that RU will only keep the 11-20 at home and the results on the field will not change.

 

[RUsojo]

Dude, let me know how I've forgotten what I've posted. My point throughout our entire back and forth is that Ash is not going to succeed if he doesn't bring in top-level recruits, and that recruits ranked, say, 27th in their state are not the type of kid, in general, to lead to many wins by your favorite college team.

Any other questions? I'll try to answer them as clearly and directly as possible for you.

Just do me one solid, since you're big on quotes. Let me know how saying a kid ranked, hypothetically, 27th in the state is not a big recruiting get equates to saying coaches shouldn't bother with kids outside of the top 10. Humor me.

Can I ask, what coach in the nation will succeed if he doesn't bring in top level recruits? Your point in your "back and forth" is to explain something that is universal throughout college football. I think people don't understand why you are going out of your way to make this universal point on our board by way condescension.

Can I also ask, how do you define succeed? Can you admit that different programs have different short term expectations?

Penn St is 15-20 and not near succeeding. Neither is Notre Dame. Neither is Texas. Standford lost to Washington worse than we did. Texas AM is doing well and Oklahoma isn't bad either. Those are your examples. Not such a great "percentage".

Make your point on the Penn St board. Franklin won't succeed until he starts recruiting way better than he is now. Or until he learns how to coach.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

Can I ask, what coach in the nation will succeed if he doesn't bring in top level recruits? Your point in your "back and forth" is to explain something that is universal throughout college football. I think people don't understand why you are going out of your way to make this universal point on our board by way condescension.

We all know Ash has improved recruiting at RU. The debate is by how much. Some here think it's been a drastic improvement; I think less so. Someone mentioned one of his goals is to keep half of the top 20 in New Jersey. I pointed out that is far too vague, as players 11-20 aren't going to be the ones that allow you to compete against Ohio State and Michigan, let alone challenge in the B1G East. The goal is to keep the Peppers, Singletons, and Wimbushes at home. Also, it's fun to talk about football.

Can I also ask, how do you define succeed? Can you admit that different programs have different short term expectations?

I've made clear that expectations differ from one program to another. Long term, however, the goal is the same everywhere: to compete for titles. Whether that's national, conference or division, everyone ultimately has to compete for them or they get fired. The short-term factor is essentially how long a given school will give a coach to get to that level. Therein lies why Ash, while off to a good start, has to take a substantial step forward. If you think his job is safe through a three-year process of getting back to .500, and then for another decade going 7-5 each season, then RU might as well get out of the major college football business.

Franklin won't succeed until he starts recruiting way better than he is now. Or until he learns how to coach.

"Success" at Penn State right now, as in this season, is to get to 8-4 or 9-3 and keep the positive momentum heading into the off-season and recruiting the 2018 cycle, which is loaded in our region. For Franklin to reach that long-term success I talked about above, yes, he has to get our classes from that 15-20 range into the top 10. As our roster becomes more balanced - currently 77 kids with freshman or sophomore eligibility - and we have the depth necessary to avoid running walk-on linebackers from the wrestling team out there against Michigan, that'll help also.

 

[ScarletNut]

Absolutely stars matter. That was never the argument. The argument was that to be successful you have to keep home grown talent home. If you could keep 50% of the top 35 in your region at home and round them out you will have a successful product. He took that to mean RU will only keep the bottom half at home.

When he was shown what his hypothetical #27 NJ talent looked like he changed the narrative. (his PSU team has 2 long term starters that were #23 and #26 on their roster right now)
When he was told that Ash's goal was to keep 50% of the top 20 at home he took that to mean that RU will only keep the 11-20 at home and the results on the field will not change.

No doubt its important to keep home grown talent in state. The geography of NJ, more than anything else IMO, makes that very difficult to do. Many kids want to go away from home. Rutgers is 60-90 minutes from almost every corner of the state. you can live away from "home" in many states while still living in that state, hours away (TX, Cal, PA, etc). Whoever posted that we should get 30% of the top 20 in state is a reasonable number. RU will have to haul in kids from Ohio, Md, FL to get to the next level. Win and they will come from anywhere, maybe even improving our chances with instate kids.

 

[kupuna133]

No doubt its important to keep home grown talent in state. The geography of NJ, more than anything else IMO, makes that very difficult to do. Many kids want to go away from home. Rutgers is 60-90 minutes from almost every corner of the state. you can live away from "home" in many states while still living in that state, hours away (TX, Cal, PA, etc). Whoever posted that we should get 30% of the top 20 in state is a reasonable number. RU will have to haul in kids from Ohio, Md, FL to get to the next level. Win and they will come from anywhere, maybe even improving our chances with instate kids.

I agree. There is a difference between recruiting nationally and getting national level recruits. Which was also a point made earlier in this thread. Realistically there are 10-15 schools that can pull in national level recruits on a regular basis and those 10-15 are dynamic. That is where the top 15-35 quote he used came from. That is why I and others said focus on home (Nj/NY/PA/Md) and round out the class with specifics from the areas you mentioned. We are in agreement.

 

[MikeRU09]

key is finish out the season competitive...maintain this class...show improvement next year...having 2 top 20 classes to refuel the roster would by a giant leap in the right direction.

 

[DanceAppreciationTA]

Chances with Bolds, Hansard, Singelton, Bell, Hand, & Perry are very, very slim at this point...we'll also find out in the next week or so if Taylor is a goner

Next 6 games are very critical to recruiting...otherwise we'll end up around 45

 

[OriginalKnight]

Chances with Bolds, Hansard, Singelton, Bell, Hand, & Perry are very, very slim at this point...we'll also find out in the next week or so if Taylor is a goner

Next 6 games are very critical to recruiting...otherwise we'll end up around 45

How do you know this?

 

[RUChoppin]

Chances with Bolds, Hansard, Singelton, Bell, Hand, & Perry are very, very slim at this point...we'll also find out in the next week or so if Taylor is a goner

Next 6 games are very critical to recruiting...otherwise we'll end up around 45

As of the 247 Crystal Ball right now, Rutgers-leaning or 50/50 guys at .8400 or better:

Hand - 100% RU
Martin - 100% RU
Miller - 66% RU
Bell - 63% RU
Bolds - 50% RU
Meeks - 50% RU

Others mentioned:

Singleton - 92% Michigan (RU not on the board right now)
Perry - 90% Stanford (RU not on the board right now)
Hansard - UF commitment 8/26

 

[drewbagel423]

The way Lewis and Taylor are getting talked about, both could potentially end up 4 star as well.

Clark said he is trying hard to recruit Wade-Perry over here (though I doubt he'd pass up a scholarship to Stanford).

Chances with Bolds, Hansard, Singelton, Bell, Hand, & Perry are very, very slim at this point...we'll also find out in the next week or so if Taylor is a goner

Next 6 games are very critical to recruiting...otherwise we'll end up around 45

Isn't Taylor visiting Wisky next Monday? Don't have a good feeling about that one.

 

[DanceAppreciationTA]

As of the 247 Crystal Ball right now, Rutgers-leaning or 50/50 guys at .8400 or better:

Hand - 100% RU
Martin - 100% RU
Miller - 66% RU
Bell - 63% RU
Bolds - 50% RU
Meeks - 50% RU

Others mentioned:

Singleton - 92% Michigan (RU not on the board right now)
Perry - 90% Stanford (RU not on the board right now)
Hansard - UF commitment 8/26

The issue I have with Crystal Balls is that recruiting is so fluid...so some of those CBs are from April or even August...I just think at this point...our chances are much smaller than 50% for the ones I listed...I did forget about Romello who seems likely to end up here.

 

[RUsojo]

We all know Ash has improved recruiting at RU. The debate is by how much. Some here think it's been a drastic improvement; I think less so. Someone mentioned one of his goals is to keep half of the top 20 in New Jersey. I pointed out that is far too vague, as players 11-20 aren't going to be the ones that allow you to compete against Ohio State and Michigan, let alone challenge in the B1G East. The goal is to keep the Peppers, Singletons, and Wimbushes at home. Also, it's fun to talk about football.



I've made clear that expectations differ from one program to another. Long term, however, the goal is the same everywhere: to compete for titles. Whether that's national, conference or division, everyone ultimately has to compete for them or they get fired. The short-term factor is essentially how long a given school will give a coach to get to that level. Therein lies why Ash, while off to a good start, has to take a substantial step forward. If you think his job is safe through a three-year process of getting back to .500, and then for another decade going 7-5 each season, then RU might as well get out of the major college football business.



"Success" at Penn State right now, as in this season, is to get to 8-4 or 9-3 and keep the positive momentum heading into the off-season and recruiting the 2018 cycle, which is loaded in our region. For Franklin to reach that long-term success I talked about above, yes, he has to get our classes from that 15-20 range into the top 10. As our roster becomes more balanced - currently 77 kids with freshman or sophomore eligibility - and we have the depth necessary to avoid running walk-on linebackers from the wrestling team out there against Michigan, that'll help also.

You're precluding Ash won't take the "next step" when the only evidence on record in recruiting proves he took the first step. You're saying that first step is small. That's your opinion and it's fine. But considering where we were in recruiting and the roster at hand many would argue that first step is big.

If Ash gets back to .500 in year 3 that would be a success given our OOC, 9 conference games, and current roster - 4 conference wins are probably needed. I'm not going to address your decade 7-5 record hyperbole because no one is expecting that it's just some hypothetical you created that has no standing.

8-4 with Penn States schedule is not a successful season right now in my opinion. Especially considering your OOC schedule.

Talking about competing with Ohio st and Michigan is fine and good but the reality is no team in our conference will be on their level; not Rutgers, not Penn St, not anybody. We will all look back on the Urban and Harbaugh tenures when they finish at their respective places and see that. There is nothing wrong with that because there are maybe 5 teams in the country that will be.

 

[RUChoppin]

The issue I have with Crystal Balls is that recruiting is so fluid...so some of those CBs are from April or even August...I just think at this point...our chances are much smaller than 50% for the ones I listed...I did forget about Romello who seems likely to end up here.

Well, Hansard has already committed to UF, so I'd agree that our ship with him has likely sailed.
Singleton and Perry don't have us on their radar at all right now, so our chances with them are also next to nonexistent.

As for the others, who knows. You're right that the crystal ball stuff is fairly stale at this point, though. I don't know if losing (even losing big) is a huge detractor, though, when the sales pitch is more about how they can come help right the ship... but 17 year olds aren't exactly predictable, so who knows.

At this point, time will tell.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

You're precluding Ash won't take the "next step" when the only evidence on record in recruiting proves he took the first step. You're saying that first step is small. That's your opinion and it's fine. But considering where we were in recruiting and the roster at hand many would argue that first step is big.

If Ash gets back to .500 in year 3 that would be a success given our OOC, 9 conference games, and current roster - 4 conference wins are probably needed. I'm not going to address your decade 7-5 record hyperbole because no one is expecting that it's just some hypothetical you created that has no standing.

8-4 with Penn States schedule is not a successful season right now in my opinion. Especially considering your OOC schedule.

Talking about competing with Ohio st and Michigan is fine and good but the reality is no team in our conference will be on their level; not Rutgers, not Penn St, not anybody. We will all look back on the Urban and Harbaugh tenures when they finish at their respective places and see that. There is nothing wrong with that because there are maybe 5 teams in the country that will be.

I never said Ash won't take the next step. In fact, if you go through my posts you'll see I say many times that my opinion can change based on how this class finishes. And of course none of us can tell the future. Some people here and I just disagree on how much an improvement he's been over Flood right now. And that's fine.

Regarding the team's on-field performance under Ash, I'm in complete agreement that he needs at least three years to make any substantial progress given how bad things got under Flood over the last year or two. I guess the tie-in to this recruiting talk is, what's the bar for "success" for Ash at RU in three, five or seven years time? Because recruiting will have a large impact on whether he reaches that level of success. If the goal is to become Northwestern, Ash's recruiting in the 2017 cycle is sufficient. If the goal is to become a contender for the B1G on a semi-regular basis, it is not and will need to take a major step forward. Essentially that's the point I've been trying to make this entire thread, that you guys are going overboard with your praise for him because he's being compared against such a low base: the Flood era.

We can agree to disagree on whether 8-4 and a top-25 recruiting class represents success for PSU this year. When you consider the youth and lack of depth on this team, along with a new offensive scheme and a still-developing OL, I don't see anything wrong with that finish. Should it play out that way, you're most likely talking about losses to UM, OSU, a Pitt team PSU would have beat if not for a dropped pass and would beat if they played again, and someone else. Hardly the end of the world given the roster challenges our program still faces. It would set the table nicely for next season and should allow momentum to continue, or pick up, heading into the 2018 cycle.

I also disagree that no one can get to the level of Ohio State and Michigan while Meyer and Harbaugh are coaching. Many can't, but some can. Obviously, that's a tall mountain to climb, but it's not impossible.

 

[sct1111]

Wisconsin's recruiting rankings are typically in the mid 30s. They are also consistently in the 2nd tier of the conference just after OSU and Michigan. There is no reason Rutgers cannot do the same. Will they? I don't know but it's certainly possible.

Here are Wisconsin's rankings according to 247

2016: 32
2015: 40
2014: 33
2013: 38
2012: 65

These classes currently make up the 10th ranked team in the nation.

The current class Ash has will probably end up somewhere around the ranking of these classes. If he can continue to recruit like this and maybe even better, then Rutgers can be a solid team.

* I just look at Louisville's rankings as well for these years and they never had a class ranked higher than 32. Baylor also doesn't exactly kill it with recruiting either.

I always thought Wisconsin and Louisville should be model programs for RU.

 

[Cheesesteak Vegas]

Wisconsin's recruiting rankings are typically in the mid 30s. They are also consistently in the 2nd tier of the conference just after OSU and Michigan. There is no reason Rutgers cannot do the same. Will they? I don't know but it's certainly possible.

Here are Wisconsin's rankings according to 247

2016: 32
2015: 40
2014: 33
2013: 38
2012: 65

These classes currently make up the 10th ranked team in the nation.

The current class Ash has will probably end up somewhere around the ranking of these classes. If he can continue to recruit like this and maybe even better, then Rutgers can be a solid team.

* I just look at Louisville's rankings as well for these years and they never had a class ranked higher than 32.

I always thought Wisconsin and Louisville should be model programs for RU.

It's certainly not impossible. But it's important to note that programs like Wisconsin are the exception to the rule in terms of the recruiting-to-winning ratio.