I think one of the reasons why Rutgers fans always underestimate the team is because you only look at it from Rutgers perspective. Football is a game of matchups and if you don't consider what the other team has you can't get a clear picture. When I look at some people responses they have no clue what the other team has coming back or what issues they have, so how could you really say Rutgers it's only going to win X amount of games with partial information.
I actually tend to slightly overestimate the team most years... and adjust much closer to reality after the first 3 games or so. I'm expecting to do the same this year.
Optimistically, all of our question marks get answered positively. Until proven otherwise, I go in fairly optimistically.
Still, though, we have a lot of questions this year.
Coaching changes are always disruptive (and we're hoping this one is too, but in a good way). Veteran players will be learning new techniques, terminology, routines, plays, etc... for all their snaps and past success, they haven't yet taken a snap in the new offense/defense that Ash is putting on the field. Their gameday experience will help them, but not as much as a veteran in a program that has had a more consistent style/staff over the prior few years. The hope is that all the changes will click very quickly, and that they race up the learning curve... but one has to expect some miscommunications, misunderstandings, and guys not hitting their marks... which should improve as the year wears on.
Beyond that, I don't think we've ever replaced the entire LB corps in one season. The DL looks stout, the secondary has some young talent but questions at depth. Overall, Ash is a defensive guy, so I'd expect a lot of focus to be put on defense... but there's still a lot of uncertainty there. Not that we're going to be bad there, just we have less of an idea of what we've got than in prior years.
On offense, we're changing the entire offensive philosophy. Guys were recruited to, and played in, a pro-style offense... and that's been the identify of Rutgers, in some shape or form, for over a decade. I can't expect the shift to a power spread is going to be like flipping a switch. The OLine has experience, but experience in a different offense - and they'll need to learn/understand the blocking schemes for Mehringer's playbook.
We don't know who our QB is, or who will be best able to run what Mehringer wants to run. It's clear that the guys on the roster on Ash's first day are not the style of QB that we're looking for going forward, just based on who's been recruited so far. That tells me that if one of them wins the job, Mehringer will be adapting his playbook to suit their strengths... and not really running the style of offense he really wants to ultimately install here. Again, just a lot of uncertainty.
I think we've got a lot of talent at WR, but not a lot of proven playmakers... and Mehringer has shown at prior stops (though we have a very limited window to look through, given how early it is in his career) that he likes to spread the ball around to a lot of guys. There is going to be a lot more opportunity for the younger guys on the roster to see the field, but we don't yet know what they'll look like - especially learning all the new routes/formations that Mehringer is bringing in.
At the end of the day, I have no idea how "good" we're going to be next year - there are a ton of open questions. More open questions, I think, than our opponents. It's great, though, that they too are dealing with a lot of question marks this year - but that gives me even less of an idea of how we'll do against them, other than having more of a shot at being competitive/winning than we would if they didn't have those questions.
The unknown is exciting... and I'm heading out to Seattle to watch us kick off the season. I'm certainly hoping for 6 or more wins and a bowl in Ash's first year, but I really have no idea what to expect (other than a new team, with a new look and new prospects, with a bright future).
