That, yes. Small sample sizes, but we have 3 seasons at the current distance from both players. While I'd love them to outperform what they've done the last 3 years, I'm not really expecting too much more there.
Cam Spencer Scouting Report
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I said not many and I was also thinking guards/SF. I’ve been watching college hoops for 35 years and it certainly seems more common to develop a new weapon in the NBA than within college timeframe, probably for the reason you identified. Big men sometimes do have more transformative skills development.
So, there’s a chance? I think it would be amazing if RHJ comes back with Caleb. Potential final 4 team!
( I couldn’t find the Jim Carry IMG)
Didn’t you say you expect Hyatt’s efficiency to improve (because it was better later in the season) and that he’ll score more?
I don’t expect either of them to magically become great shooters next season but of the two of them Caleb’s the one whose shooting numbers actually improved in the second part of the season. Hyatt’s efficiency improved because he stopped taking a lot of shots which resulted in a larger percentage of his attempts being put backs. We didn’t want more from him, I get that. The point is, he’s done nothing to show that with more intentional usage he’s capable of scoring more efficiently (other than hit those 2 threes vs Penn State).
I’d love to think it’s like being a 15 seed playing a 2 seed. But I think it’s more like being stuck in the 16 slot.
That's a small sample size, too, and has to be taken with a massive grain of salt. But the second half of this season was a bit more in line with what we saw of him in the prior to seasons at LSU - though, looking more closely there, he didn't have a ton of shots in either year.
Overall, his career eFG% is .426... a bit higher than the .399 he had this season, but still not great.
Qualitatively, he really did seem like he was overthinking things in the first half of the season, though - pressing on offense and not sure where to be on defense. Those issues settled a bit toward the end of the year, so my hope is that he comes into next season in a better place.
Then again, we thought a healthy McConnell was going to come in strong this season, and he started 5/30 from the field, so ymmv.
At LSU he was not efficient as a frosh, only as a sophomore. He scored 4 ppg and your probably right - it was probsbly similar to his second half of 2021-22. A bunch of put backs. My point is that if you up his best year from 16 minutes to 24, Maybe he averages another half a put back a game? He’d probably have to improve his shooting to maintain that efficiency and average more than 5-6 points. You can’t just double him from 4 to 8 unless we expect a drop off in efficiency from this year which would likely land him on the bench.
Yes, exactly.
Caleb is 60/213 for his career. Even a true 33.33333% shooter will do this badly or worse by pure chance ~6% of the time. For a true 31% shooter that number rises to almost 21%. If you gave me over/under 28.2% (his career %) on Caleb's threes next season I would pound the over.
I'll take the under on Reiber shooting 58.3% from 3 this year please.....and over on Cliff 16.7%.
Not touching Paul at 34.7 OR Hyatt at 27.1
Agreed. We’re focusing on 3s here, but shifting to other efficiency metrics, I’d also take the over on Caleb shooting better than 66.7% from charity (considering he shot 79.3% over his first 3 season).
I understand the “Caleb is what he is” perspective on offense to an extent (he’s not going to suddenly become a 3 point gunner) but everyone also forgets that in his frosh season (the only year he wasn’t playing alongside other dribble penetration guys who were the first option Geo or JY - he relieved Geo that year) his FT attempt rate was really good. He attempted 53 FTs in only 16 mpg (last year he took 54 FTs in 29 mpg). I think there’s real potential to see his FT attempts get a nice bump and if he hits them at a rate more in line with his first few seasons that could be huge for us.
McConnell had a real rough start to the season shooting the ball from every level. Over the first 6 games, he was 8/37 FG (.216) [8/27 2P (.296), 0/10 3P (.000)] and 4/10 (.400)from the FT line. Don't know if it was mental or physical, but he just had a hard time getting the ball to go through the hoop at the start of the season
From the Clemson game through the end of the year, he went 79/182 FG (.434) [63/133 2P (.474), 16/49 3P (.327)] and 32/44 (.727) from the line.
Hopefully next season doesn't start with the same sort of yips.
As far as threes, though, his hit rate at the current arc distance is 40/158 (.253).... but about of a third of that was in 2020-21 when he was dealing with back problems and shot 10/49 (.204).
And during his bout with the Yips. It feels like there’s reasonable potential for all of the following to happen:
1) he shoots close to 80% from charity (did so 3 out of 4 seasons)
2) he doesn’t go through another bout with the Yips. I’ve never seen anything like that before in basketball - it was literally like a competent QB who suddenly couldn’t complete a pass. It could happen again I suppose, but the extent of it was just so bizarre in the first place.
3) he goes to the FT line at a rate more in line with a blend of his first 2 seasons (I do think there’s a correlation there to the number of natural ball handlers he was playing with. As a frosh, he didn’t play much with Geo - so typically he was the only one who could handle to save his life on that team. Last year he played with both Geo and Paul. As a sophomore and junior he played with JY, Geo and/or Paul. In landing Spencer and not Hammond, Caleb won’t handle as much as he did as a frosh but it will be more than the past 2 seasons. I think he could draw more fouls as a result.
If just those things happen - even if the “at this point Caleb is who he is” position still holds (those folks aren’t wrong) Caleb still ups his scoring to around 10 ppg. None of these 3 things factor in an improvement in shooting which I’m sure he’ll work on in the off-season (I’m taking the bear position - sticking with - his shooting is what it is. That’s of course not a given).
It’s pretty simple. If Hyatt only attempts 1-2 3s a game his percentages will improve. I’d be shocked if he transformed into a successful high volume 3 point shooter. The minute he starts taking 4+ threes a game his percentages will go down and he’ll eventually find a seat on the pine.
Meh... either way he will shoot better than 27%
It's a low bar. It's hard to get any rhythm playing so little and then trying to force it to make something happen like he did last year. He will feel more comfortable this season and it will show
I said this about Paul, but I think it is true from most of the team, they deferred heavily to Ron and Geo. I think Caleb could be a pleasant surprise next year, he is crafty.
We’ll see. I’m not saying no way but there’s no prior history of success from him with increased usage. It seems like throughout his career, the more he’s used the less efficient he’s become.
So much discussion about our starters Paul , Caleb and Cliff and I think Caleb is coming back and will be better than ever on the offensive end and you almost cannot get better defensively. Adding Cam Spencer , finally a 3 pointer specialist plus a heady real good basketball player was a great get for Pike and the staff.
However., so much unknown going into next year . No one would have thought Kenan Murray and Johnnie Davis would go from 7-8 points per game to over 20+ in their sophomore years and lottery picks. I mention them because we do not know what Mag, Reiber and Hyatt will be next year. All 3 have a chance to break out and replace some of the scoring we are losing with Ron and Geo . Then you have Simpson and Woolfolk as freshman. I expect Simpson to give us something maybe 4-5 off the bench. Woolfolk is a typical Pike backup with a big body that can bang with the BiG 10 centers and can use some fouls. Plus he was a football player so he is obviously very athletic, and love me some football player that also can hoop. Tough as nails. I do not know who said he was thought to be redshirting but I do not see it , nor want it, and I do not think we need another big in the portal. We could use another rebounder doing all the hustle plays and getting on the offensive and defensive glass to help Cliff. If there is a grad transfer or any transfer out there that can do that , Pike should go get him.
Now I have left out Miller and Oscar. I think Miller gives us another tough guard defensive player but not expecting a ton on offense but hopefully he gets better than last year. Other than occasional 3 from Oscar , I am suprised he has not left. Pike believes in his players , and played Oscar more than I thought was warranted last year , so maybe Oscar gives us a little more from distance , rebounds a hell of a lot better , but I am not holding my breath.
Ideally either the bruiser rebounder 4 or a wing scorer , who can break down a defense would and should be the next portal get. Pike is riding with Mag, Reiber and Hyatt to replace Ron, and expecting them to develop and become impact players. Time will tell. Defensively with Caleb , Mag, Cliff and Miller we will be fine defensively so fretting over Paul or Cam’s defense is just silly.
Offensively , Cliff will hopefully become a pick and pop 3 point shooter and not just a dunker . He also has to perfect his drop step and low post moves. He grew tremendously from freshman to sophomore year but expecting even more growth this year. If he does , we have a chance to be very good again.
However., so much unknown going into next year . No one would have thought Kenan Murray and Johnnie Davis would go from 7-8 points per game to over 20+ in their sophomore years and lottery picks. I mention them because we do not know what Mag, Reiber and Hyatt will be next year. All 3 have a chance to break out and replace some of the scoring we are losing with Ron and Geo . Then you have Simpson and Woolfolk as freshman. I expect Simpson to give us something maybe 4-5 off the bench. Woolfolk is a typical Pike backup with a big body that can bang with the BiG 10 centers and can use some fouls. Plus he was a football player so he is obviously very athletic, and love me some football player that also can hoop. Tough as nails. I do not know who said he was thought to be redshirting but I do not see it , nor want it, and I do not think we need another big in the portal. We could use another rebounder doing all the hustle plays and getting on the offensive and defensive glass to help Cliff. If there is a grad transfer or any transfer out there that can do that , Pike should go get him.
Now I have left out Miller and Oscar. I think Miller gives us another tough guard defensive player but not expecting a ton on offense but hopefully he gets better than last year. Other than occasional 3 from Oscar , I am suprised he has not left. Pike believes in his players , and played Oscar more than I thought was warranted last year , so maybe Oscar gives us a little more from distance , rebounds a hell of a lot better , but I am not holding my breath.
Ideally either the bruiser rebounder 4 or a wing scorer , who can break down a defense would and should be the next portal get. Pike is riding with Mag, Reiber and Hyatt to replace Ron, and expecting them to develop and become impact players. Time will tell. Defensively with Caleb , Mag, Cliff and Miller we will be fine defensively so fretting over Paul or Cam’s defense is just silly.
Offensively , Cliff will hopefully become a pick and pop 3 point shooter and not just a dunker . He also has to perfect his drop step and low post moves. He grew tremendously from freshman to sophomore year but expecting even more growth this year. If he does , we have a chance to be very good again.
The social media team tagged and @'d the wrong Cam Spencer in their welcome post on Instagram. Was very confused to see that we had added a pear-shaped baller with a Jew-fro.
(I know this stuff shouldn't matter, but come on guys, let's make a better first impression on the digital front.)
(I know this stuff shouldn't matter, but come on guys, let's make a better first impression on the digital front.)
What if I set the over/under at 17% BUT you knew he was only going to take 6 3s again next year?
The breakeven point on this (or any over/under that lies between 1 and 2 makes out of 6) requires him to actually be a 26.445% shooter. For example, if you believed he was a 25% shooter and you knew he would only take 6 attempts, then the odds would be:
0 makes 17.8% (under)
1 make 35.6% (under)
2 makes 29.7% (over)
3 makes 13.2% (over)
4 makes 3.3% (over)
5 makes 0.4% (over)
6 makes 0.02% (over)
Under wins 53.4%
0 makes 17.8% (under)
1 make 35.6% (under)
2 makes 29.7% (over)
3 makes 13.2% (over)
4 makes 3.3% (over)
5 makes 0.4% (over)
6 makes 0.02% (over)
Under wins 53.4%
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