Clemson stats - Last 10 games

[RUChoppin]

Wanted to get a sense of what their rotation/production was over their last 10 games, to try to get a better picture of who has been getting minutes and what we might be able to expect.

Over those 10 games, Clemson has gone 7-3. Wins over Louisville, UNC, Cuse, GTech, @Wake, Miami, and Pitt.... Losses to @Duke, @Cuse, (N) Miami. Overall, their home record this year was 11-1, their away record was 2-5, and their neutral record was 3-1.

Stats (listing 3P% for players with at least 30 attempts)

Aamir Simms, Sr. (F, 6-8, 245)
33.3 min, 15.5 pts (.554 FG, .517 3P), 7.0 rb, 3.2 ast, 0.6 stl, 0.8 blk, 2.5 tov, 2.8 pf

Clyde Trapp, Sr. (G, 6-4, 203)
31.8 min, 6.0 pts (.359 FG, .308 3P), 5.6 rb, 3.8 ast, 0.6 stl, 0.4 blk, 2.5 tov, 1.6 pf

Al-Amir Dawes, So. (G, 6-2, 180)
24.0 min, 10.1 pts (.538 FG, .524 3P), 1.7 rb, 1.7 ast, 0.9 stl, 0.1 lk, 1.6 tov, 0.8 pf

Nick Honor, So. (G, 5-10, 205)
22.7 min, 6.4 pts (.353 FG, .326 3P), 1.4 rb, 2.1 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.1 blk, 0.7 tov, 1.3 pf

Alex Hemenway, So. (G, 6-3, 185)
19.0 min, 5.6 pts (.429 FG, .414 3P), 1.4 rb, 0.8 ast, 0.3 stl, 0.1 blk, 0.8 tov, 1.8 pf

Hunter Tyson, Jr. (F, 6-8, 215)
18.9 min, 8.9 pts (.484 FG, .433 3P), 4.7 rb, 0.3 ast, 0.4 stl, 0.5 blk, 0.7 tov, 2.1 pf

Jonathan Baehre, Sr. (F, 6-10, 214)
13.2 min, 3.8 pts (.444 FG), 2.4 rb, 0.3 ast, 0.0 stl, 0.4 blk, 0.4 tov, 0.9 pf

Chase Hunter
13.1 min, 2.5 pts (.303 FG), 1.1 rb, 1.2 ast, 0.3 stl, 0.1 blk, 0.7 tov, 0.9 pf

Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Fr. (G, 6-8, 215)
9.0 min, 2.8 pts (.438 FG), 2.2 rb, 0.2 ast, 0.1 stl, 0.0 blk, 0.2 tov, 1.0 pf

PJ Hall, Fr. (F, 6-10, 235)
7.9 min, 1.8 pts (.267 FG), 2.0 rb, 0.0 ast, 0.0 stl, 0.0 blk, 0.0 tov, 1.0 pf


So..... what I'm seeing......
1. They've been torching the nets from three. Over the last ten games, they are 87/215 for .405 as a team. That's white hot... led by Simms (15/29), Dawes (22/42). Their two 6-8 forwards (Simms/Tyson) are a combined 28/59... which will test our bigs, having to step out to defend the arc.
2. They do play more of a "true" 6-10 big about half the time, with Baehre and Hall combining for 21.1 minutes
3. They haven't fouled very much, averaging just 14 pf/game
4. Simms lives on the offensive glass with 23 of his 47 boards coming on the offensive side of the ball... by comparison over the last 10, Johnson's had 27 ORB to 58 TRB
5. They have more big bodies than we do (5 guys 6-8 or better in a 9-man rotation, to our 2 in an 8 man rotation)... but our guards are have size on theirs.
6. Their points seem to be driven more from their forwards... 32.8 pts coming from guys 6-8 or better (they have 5 to our 2), and 30.6 from guys 6-4 or under.

Some initial questions
1. Myles Johnson.... how well we he be able to chase a smaller and more mobile Simms, especially as he tries to stretch out beyond the arc and take Johnson away from the basket? How well will we be able to get Johnson the ball inside to take advantage of size mismatches and possibly get Simms in foul trouble?
2. Ron Harper.... how well will he be able to guard the bigger Simms when Clemson has a center in the game?
3. Paul Mulcahy.... he's defensively a tweener, and there aren't any tweens on this team. There are small guards (where he sometimes struggles with fast guards with lateral quickness) and big forwards (he doesn't have the weight to body them). There aren't guys on Clemson in that 6-5 to 6-7/200-225 range

EDIT: Somehow missed Chase Hunter

 

[RUtix4me]

One question is will they need to put a true big in to handle Myles. If we can get it down to him low and score, they may need to counter with a a true big And take away a 3pt shooter.

 

[koko2315]

One question is will they need to put a true big in to handle Myles. If we can get it down to him low and score, they may need to counter with a a true big And take away a 3pt shooter.

Agreed i think we need to force the action to the paint on the offensive side of the ball

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Wanted to get a sense of what their rotation/production was over their last 10 games, to try to get a better picture of who has been getting minutes and what we might be able to expect.

Over those 10 games, Clemson has gone 7-3. Wins over Louisville, UNC, Cuse, GTech, @Wake, Miami, and Pitt.... Losses to @Duke, @Cuse, (N) Miami. Overall, their home record this year was 11-1, their away record was 2-5, and their neutral record was 3-1.

Stats (listing 3P% for players with at least 30 attempts)

Aamir Simms, Sr. (F, 6-8, 245)
33.3 min, 15.5 pts (.554 FG, .517 3P), 7.0 rb, 3.2 ast, 0.6 stl, 0.8 blk, 2.5 tov, 2.8 pf

Clyde Trapp, Sr. (G, 6-4, 203)
31.8 min, 6.0 pts (.359 FG, .308 3P), 5.6 rb, 3.8 ast, 0.6 stl, 0.4 blk, 2.5 tov, 1.6 pf

Al-Amir Dawes, So. (G, 6-2, 180)
24.0 min, 10.1 pts (.538 FG, .524 3P), 1.7 rb, 1.7 ast, 0.9 stl, 0.1 lk, 1.6 tov, 0.8 pf

Nick Honor, So. (G, 5-10, 205)
22.7 min, 6.4 pts (.353 FG, .326 3P), 1.4 rb, 2.1 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.1 blk, 0.7 tov, 1.3 pf

Alex Hemenway, So. (G, 6-3, 185)
19.0 min, 5.6 pts (.429 FG, .414 3P), 1.4 rb, 0.8 ast, 0.3 stl, 0.1 blk, 0.8 tov, 1.8 pf

Hunter Tyson, Jr. (F, 6-8, 215)
18.9 min, 8.9 pts (.484 FG, .433 3P), 4.7 rb, 0.3 ast, 0.4 stl, 0.5 blk, 0.7 tov, 2.1 pf

Jonathan Baehre, Sr. (F, 6-10, 214)
13.2 min, 3.8 pts (.444 FG), 2.4 rb, 0.3 ast, 0.0 stl, 0.4 blk, 0.4 tov, 0.9 pf

Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Fr. (G, 6-8, 215)
9.0 min, 2.8 pts (.438 FG), 2.2 rb, 0.2 ast, 0.1 stl, 0.0 blk, 0.2 tov, 1.0 pf

PJ Hall, Fr. (F, 6-10, 235)
7.9 min, 1.8 pts (.267 FG), 2.0 rb, 0.0 ast, 0.0 stl, 0.0 blk, 0.0 tov, 1.0 pf


So..... what I'm seeing......
1. They've been torching the nets from three. Over the last ten games, they are 87/215 for .405 as a team. That's white hot... led by Simms (15/29), Dawes (22/42). Their two 6-8 forwards (Simms/Tyson) are a combined 28/59... which will test our bigs, having to step out to defend the arc.
2. They do play more of a "true" 6-10 big about half the time, with Baehre and Hall combining for 21.1 minutes
3. They haven't fouled very much, averaging just 13 pf/game
4. Simms lives on the offensive glass with 23 of his 47 boards coming on the offensive side of the ball... by comparison over the last 10, Johnson's had 27 ORB to 58 TRB
5. They have more big bodies than we do (5 guys 6-8 or better in a 9-man rotation, to our 2 in an 8 man rotation)... but our guards are have size on theirs.
6. Their points seem to be driven more from their forwards... 32.8 pts coming from guys 6-8 or better (they have 5 to our 2), and 28.1 from guys 6-4 or under.

Some initial questions
1. Myles Johnson.... how well we he be able to chase a smaller and more mobile Simms, especially as he tries to stretch out beyond the arc and take Johnson away from the basket? How well will we be able to get Johnson the ball inside to take advantage of size mismatches and possibly get Simms in foul trouble?
2. Ron Harper.... how well will he be able to guard the bigger Simms when Clemson has a center in the game?
3. Paul Mulcahy.... he's defensively a tweener, and there aren't any tweens on this team. There are small guards (where he sometimes struggles with fast guards with lateral quickness) and big forwards (he doesn't have the weight to body them). There aren't guys on Clemson in that 6-5 to 6-7/200-225 range

Look at it from the flip side. Clemson will face several wing guys like McConnell, Harper, and Mathis who can pressure the less agile big players and bully the smaller defenders. Let's see how Clemson's small guards handle Young's pressure and high energy. I can see Geo feasting on the smaller guards by shooting over them or bullying them by driving over, around, and through them. Mulcahy will get into the paint either for his shot (layup) or set up Myles with an easy basket. Clemson can't afford to put a small guard on Mulcahy. It comes down to which team can impose their will and force the other team to adjust. If Rutgers speeds the game up, then all those big frontcourt guys become less effective.

 

[koko2315]

Look at it from the flip side. Clemson will face several wing guys like McConnell, Harper, and Mathis who can pressure the less agile big players and bully the smaller defenders. Let's see how Clemson's small guards handle Young's pressure and high energy. I can see Geo feasting on the smaller guards by shooting over them or bullying them by driving over, around, and through them. Mulcahy will get into the paint either for his shot (layup) or set up Myles with an easy basket. Clemson can't afford to put a small guard on Mulcahy. It comes down to which team can impose their will and force the other team to adjust. If Rutgers speeds the game up, then all those big frontcourt guys become less effective.

Bingo...would love to see RHJ taking it to the tin against the slower Clemson guys

 

[RUChoppin]

Look at it from the flip side. Clemson will face several wing guys like McConnell, Harper, and Mathis who can pressure the less agile big players and bully the smaller defenders. Let's see how Clemson's small guards handle Young's pressure and high energy. I can see Geo feasting on the smaller guards by shooting over them or bullying them by driving over, around, and through them. Mulcahy will get into the paint either for his shot (layup) or set up Myles with an easy basket. Clemson can't afford to put a small guard on Mulcahy. It comes down to which team can impose their will and force the other team to adjust. If Rutgers speeds the game up, then all those big frontcourt guys become less effective.

We aren't going to face many "less agile big players" - their primary bigs seem very agile and athletic, as they're more stretch fours than true PFs/Cs. Definitely going to need to have our guards leverage their size on offense - either by bullying smaller defenders, or elevating over them for jumpers - and if we can force Simms to cover Harper, that would leave Johnson open against a guy he's going to have a lot of height/weight over.

Or, as said earlier, they'll have to play more minutes for their less effective 6-10 players, keeping scorers off the floor.

Going to come down to who can dictate, and who has to be reactive - as you say, imposing their will.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

We aren't going to face many "less agile big players" - their primary bigs seem very agile and athletic, as they're more stretch fours than true PFs/Cs. Definitely going to need to have our guards leverage their size on offense - either by bullying smaller defenders, or elevating over them for jumpers - and if we can force Simms to cover Harper, that would leave Johnson open against a guy he's going to have a lot of height/weight over.

Or, as said earlier, they'll have to play more minutes for their less effective 6-10 players, keeping scorers off the floor.

Going to come down to who can dictate, and who has to be reactive - as you say, imposing their will.

I've only seen Clemson twice this year and from what I saw was the frontcourt bigs don't like to play outside of the paint. They may be athletic, but they prefer to play closer to the basket. Also, I think they will be more concerned with Myles' length than anything else. If they can't establish the pick & roll against Myles and co., then it's going to be a long night.

 

[RUChoppin]

Looking at their primary 8-man rotation (all averaging 13+ min/g over the last 10):

Nick Honor (G, 5-10, 205)
Al-Amir Dawes (G, 6-2, 180)
Alex Hemenway (G, 6-3, 185)
Chase Hunter (G, 6-3, 204)
Clyde Trapp (G, 6-4, 203)
Hunter Tyson (F, 6-8, 215)
Simms (F, 6-8, 245)
Jonathan Baehre (F, 6-10, 214)

vs. our 8-man rotation (averaging 15+ min in conference play)

Jacob Young (G, 6-2, 185)
Geo Baker (G, 6-4, 195)
Montez Mathis (G, 6-4, 210)
Paul Mulcahy (G, 6-6, 210)
Ron Harper (G, 6-6, 245)
Caleb McConnell (G, 6-7, 195)
Cliff Omoruyi (C, 6-11, 240)
Myles Johnson (C, 6-11, 255)

I think we have size overall.... only mismatches seem to be we'll have more overall size in the post, while they'll have more range. Question's going to come down to how to best defend Simms.... Johnson, Harper, or a combination approach with switches/doubles.

Edit: Added in Chase Hunter, somehow missed him before.

 

[RUChoppin]

I've only seen Clemson twice this year and from what I saw was the frontcourt bigs don't like to play outside of the paint. They may be athletic, but they prefer to play closer to the basket. Also, I think they will be more concerned with Myles' length than anything else. If they can't establish the pick & roll against Myles and co., then it's going to be a long night.

For guys who don't like to play outside the paint, they're killing it from deep. Simms is averaging 2.9 3PA/g over the last 10 (.517) and Tyson is averaging 3.0 (.433). Their two more traditional bigs (6-10 guys) hang in the paint and don't generally shoot from outside (though they do pull the trigger occasionally.... Baehre is 2/9 the last 10 games)... but they are only in the game about half the time.

 

[fluoxetine]

Looking at Torvik, Clemson seems to basically be us but with even slower tempo and slightly worse offense. We could win 40-39.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

For guys who don't like to play outside the paint, they're killing it from deep. Simms is averaging 2.9 3PA/g over the last 10 (.517) and Tyson is averaging 3.0 (.433). Their two more traditional bigs (6-10 guys) hang in the paint and don't generally shoot from outside (though they do pull the trigger occasionally.... Baehre is 2/9 the last 10 games)... but they are only in the game about half the time.

You can pressure Clemson's ballhandlers. I think our defensive pressure can disrupt the flow of their offense, impacting their ability to shoot three consistently. I think our backcourt and wings need to be physical to take advantage of Clemson's lack of size there.

 

[RUich]

We need to stop getting so many fouls. I would like to see us drive to the paint a lot more. Maybe pick up some fouls instead of getting them. Stop with so many shots from the 3, we are not good at it.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

I see Young being key to the success of Rutgers' offense. I think Young can get into the paint at will against Clemson's guards. Also, Baker's mid-range game should thrive against the small guards. I say let Harper work from the outside in. This will allow Myles to establish his size advantage against Clemson in one-on-one situations. If Mathis can recapture his early-season defense, he can be a problem for Clemson's guards. For short periods of the game, a backcourt of Young and Mathis can wreck Clemson's ability to operate a smooth half-court offense. Also, Rutgers should speed up the game because Clemson doesn't like to run. They are not built for that.

 

[RUfromSoCal?]

ACC is soft

 

[RUBlackout]

Harper on tyson

CM on Simms

MJ on Baehre

If they keep Baehre out than I would move to a zone with Myles or CO in the middle. Take away their 3pt shooting and keep our size in the middle.
I would co stw toy look to get Myles down on the block on offense. They are going to be forced to double team him and this will open up many shots for us.

 

[RUforJERSEY]

Wanted to get a sense of what their rotation/production was over their last 10 games, to try to get a better picture of who has been getting minutes and what we might be able to expect.

Over those 10 games, Clemson has gone 7-3. Wins over Louisville, UNC, Cuse, GTech, @Wake, Miami, and Pitt.... Losses to @Duke, @Cuse, (N) Miami. Overall, their home record this year was 11-1, their away record was 2-5, and their neutral record was 3-1.

Stats (listing 3P% for players with at least 30 attempts)

Aamir Simms, Sr. (F, 6-8, 245)
33.3 min, 15.5 pts (.554 FG, .517 3P), 7.0 rb, 3.2 ast, 0.6 stl, 0.8 blk, 2.5 tov, 2.8 pf

Clyde Trapp, Sr. (G, 6-4, 203)
31.8 min, 6.0 pts (.359 FG, .308 3P), 5.6 rb, 3.8 ast, 0.6 stl, 0.4 blk, 2.5 tov, 1.6 pf

Al-Amir Dawes, So. (G, 6-2, 180)
24.0 min, 10.1 pts (.538 FG, .524 3P), 1.7 rb, 1.7 ast, 0.9 stl, 0.1 lk, 1.6 tov, 0.8 pf

Nick Honor, So. (G, 5-10, 205)
22.7 min, 6.4 pts (.353 FG, .326 3P), 1.4 rb, 2.1 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.1 blk, 0.7 tov, 1.3 pf

Alex Hemenway, So. (G, 6-3, 185)
19.0 min, 5.6 pts (.429 FG, .414 3P), 1.4 rb, 0.8 ast, 0.3 stl, 0.1 blk, 0.8 tov, 1.8 pf

Hunter Tyson, Jr. (F, 6-8, 215)
18.9 min, 8.9 pts (.484 FG, .433 3P), 4.7 rb, 0.3 ast, 0.4 stl, 0.5 blk, 0.7 tov, 2.1 pf

Jonathan Baehre, Sr. (F, 6-10, 214)
13.2 min, 3.8 pts (.444 FG), 2.4 rb, 0.3 ast, 0.0 stl, 0.4 blk, 0.4 tov, 0.9 pf

Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Fr. (G, 6-8, 215)
9.0 min, 2.8 pts (.438 FG), 2.2 rb, 0.2 ast, 0.1 stl, 0.0 blk, 0.2 tov, 1.0 pf

PJ Hall, Fr. (F, 6-10, 235)
7.9 min, 1.8 pts (.267 FG), 2.0 rb, 0.0 ast, 0.0 stl, 0.0 blk, 0.0 tov, 1.0 pf


So..... what I'm seeing......
1. They've been torching the nets from three. Over the last ten games, they are 87/215 for .405 as a team. That's white hot... led by Simms (15/29), Dawes (22/42). Their two 6-8 forwards (Simms/Tyson) are a combined 28/59... which will test our bigs, having to step out to defend the arc.
2. They do play more of a "true" 6-10 big about half the time, with Baehre and Hall combining for 21.1 minutes
3. They haven't fouled very much, averaging just 13 pf/game
4. Simms lives on the offensive glass with 23 of his 47 boards coming on the offensive side of the ball... by comparison over the last 10, Johnson's had 27 ORB to 58 TRB
5. They have more big bodies than we do (5 guys 6-8 or better in a 9-man rotation, to our 2 in an 8 man rotation)... but our guards are have size on theirs.
6. Their points seem to be driven more from their forwards... 32.8 pts coming from guys 6-8 or better (they have 5 to our 2), and 28.1 from guys 6-4 or under.

Some initial questions
1. Myles Johnson.... how well we he be able to chase a smaller and more mobile Simms, especially as he tries to stretch out beyond the arc and take Johnson away from the basket? How well will we be able to get Johnson the ball inside to take advantage of size mismatches and possibly get Simms in foul trouble?
2. Ron Harper.... how well will he be able to guard the bigger Simms when Clemson has a center in the game?
3. Paul Mulcahy.... he's defensively a tweener, and there aren't any tweens on this team. There are small guards (where he sometimes struggles with fast guards with lateral quickness) and big forwards (he doesn't have the weight to body them). There aren't guys on Clemson in that 6-5 to 6-7/200-225 range

You did an excellent job here. This is much better and far more thorough than the preview that the mods usually do for every game on the Round Table. Thanks for your addition.

 

[LOU-RU85]

My guess is that our D will be the best they have seen all year. That will help us.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

I know fans are skeptical on Mathis but this is a game tailor made for Mathis on both ends. You definitely want to get out and run on misses before Clemson gets their defense set up and there's really no reason he can't get to the hoop against Clemson.

Young, Geo and Mulcahy need to avoid turning it over and wasting possessions. As long as RU gets shot attempts (even some quick ones in transition), it will speed Clemson up a bit.

I would give Simms all the shots he wants, single covered and stay with shooters on the 3 point line.....if Simms burns us for 28 to 30, so be it.....they thrive on hoping your defense can't stop Simms and then you start hedging and leaving your responsibility on your guy....that's why they shoot so many 3s.....they also run a LOT of the same high screen and roll with Dawes and Honor, where Simms is the screen and pop guy.....if Myles is the guy guarding Simms that far away, he has to make a decision to hard double and try and get back to Simms or we need to let Young handle the guards over and under screens....(you cannot go "under" screens against their guards, they will immediately launch).....it is a fight through screens and make them pass the ball to Simms....if he takes 25 shots, he cannot crash the boards on offense.

It should be a speed (Clemson guards) vs length and height (RU guards).....Mathis owns the key on both ends with Caleb and Mulcahy....use their length in passing lanes and get deflections, push and get in transition.....transition 3s for Geo and RHJ should be there all game long.

 

[RUChoppin]

Doing the same breakdown for Rutgers over the last 10 games:

Geo Baker
33.2 min, 10.3 pts, 3.6 rb, 3.4 ast, 1.3 stl, 0.6 blk, 1.8 tov, 2.8 pf

Ron Harper, Jr
30.2 min, 12.5 pts, 5.5 rb, 1.1 ast, 0.5 stl, 0.6 blk, 1.6 tov, 2.1 pf

Jacob Young
29.2 min, 14.0 pts, 1.6 rb, 2.9 ast, 1.8 stl, 0.1 blk, 2.9 tov, 2.1 pf

Paul Mulcahy
25.3 min, 5.7 pts, 2.3 rb, 1.9 ast, 0.4 stl, 0.3 blk, 1.9 tov, 1.9 pf

Myles Johnson
24.7 min, 8.2 pts, 8.5 rb, 0.7 ast, 0.6 stl, 2.7 blk, 1.0 tov, 2.4 pf

Caleb McConnell
24.6 min, 5.4 pts, 4.7 rb, 1.7 ast, 1.6 stl, 0.3 blk, 0.9 tov, 2.1 pf

Montez Mathis
14.7 min, 4.8 pts, 1.6 rb, 0.2 ast, 0.4 stl, 0.1 blk, 0.7 tov, 2.4 pf

Cliff Omoruyi
14.2 min, 3.6 pts, 3.5 rb, 0.1 ast, 0.2 stl, 0.9 blk, 0.1 tov, 1.8 pf

 

[RUChoppin]

Some totals over the last 10 games for both teams:

Rutgers:
251/578 FG (.434)
54/200 3P (.270)
104/146 FT (.712)
319 rb (72 Off, 247 Def)
123 ast
68 stl
56 blk
111 tov
181 pf
660 pts

Clemson
225/505 FG (.446)
90/233 3P (.386)
87/109 FT (.798)
288 rb (61 Off, 227 Def)
138 ast
43 stl
29 blk
104 tov
140 pf
627 pts

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Some totals over the last 10 games for both teams:

Rutgers:
251/578 FG (.434)
54/200 3P (.270)
104/146 FT (.712)
319 rb (72 Off, 247 Def)
123 ast
68 stl
56 blk
111 tov
181 pf
660 pts

Clemson
225/505 FG (.446)
90/233 3P (.386)
87/109 FT (.798)
288 rb (61 Off, 227 Def)
138 ast
43 stl
29 blk
104 tov
140 pf
627 pts

Stats are similar, but the competition is the difference. I think the level of intensity Rutgers faced over the course of a season will help Rutgers overcome Clemson.

 

[RUChoppin]

So, breaking that down a bit more...

We've attempted 57.8 fga/g to their 50.5 fga/g, so we definitely get more shots up than they do.

But they've shot 23.3 3pa/g to our 20.0 3pa.g.... which means about 46.1% of their attempts are from the arc, while only about 34.6% of ours are.

We've rebounded 22.0% of our missed shots, and they've managed 21.8%... which is nearly identical.

They shoot well at the line, but don't get there very often (10.9 fta/g to our 14.6 fta/g). They're last in the ACC in FTA/g at 12.9 in conference play... which makes sense given how often they're putting up shots from behind the arc.
By comparison, their conference opponents have averaged 16.1 fta/g, while ours have averaged 14.2 fta/g.... so they manage to foul shooters more often than we do, even though we commit more fouls per game than they do (17.9 vs. 15.5)

 

[RUChoppin]

Another angle to look at is performance outside the comfort of a home arena.....

Clemson had 11 games outside their home venue (5-6), and we had 12 (5-7)

Some selected stats from away/neutral games:
Clemson
Team: 58.5 ppg, 64.6 opp ppg
Simms, 28.2 min, 13.9 pts, 5.5 rb, 2.6 ast, 2.7 tov, 3.2 pf
Trapp, 27.7 min, 6.5 pts, 4.3 rb, 2.5 ast, 1.8 tov
Dawes, 27.0 min, 7.7 pts, 3.3 rb
Honor, 22.5 min, 7.2 pts, 3.0 ast, 1.3 tov
Baehre, 17.8 min, 4.7 pts, 2.8 rb
Hemenway, 16.0 min, 4.7 pts, 1.0 rb
Tyson, 14.7 min, 5.8 pts, 4.9 rb
Hunter, 14.6 min, 3.7 pts, 1.5 rb
Hall, 10.6 min, 3.8 pts, 1.7 rb

Rutgers
Team: 64.9 ppg, 70.1 opp ppg
Baker, 35.4 min, 12.6 pts, 3.0 rb, 4.2 ast, 2.2 tov
Harper, 32.8 min, 15.8 pts, 6.6 rb
Young, 31.8 min, 14.8 pts, 1.8 rb, 3.8 ast, 3.0 tov, 1.4 stl
Mulcahy, 28.6 min, 5.8 pts, 2.0 rb, 3.2 ast, 1.2 tov
Johnson, 27.8 min, 8.8 pts, 11.6 rb, 2.4 blk, 3.4 pf
McConnell, 24.0 min, 5.3 pts, 4.0 rb, 1.3 ast, 1.0 tov, 1.8 stl
Mathis, 15.0 min, 4.4 pts, 2.2 rb
Omoruyi, 14.0 min, 3.6 pts, 3.2 rb

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

My guess is that our D will be the best they have seen all year. That will help us.

Alabama is 2 in the country on defense per Kem Pom. So no.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Looking at their primary 8-man rotation (all averaging 13+ min/g over the last 10):

Nick Honor (G, 5-10, 205)
Al-Amir Dawes (G, 6-2, 180)
Alex Hemenway (G, 6-3, 185)
Chase Hunter (G, 6-3, 204)
Clyde Trapp (G, 6-4, 203)
Hunter Tyson (F, 6-8, 215)
Simms (F, 6-8, 245)
Jonathan Baehre (F, 6-10, 214)

vs. our 8-man rotation (averaging 15+ min in conference play)

Jacob Young (G, 6-2, 185)
Geo Baker (G, 6-4, 195)
Montez Mathis (G, 6-4, 210)
Paul Mulcahy (G, 6-6, 210)
Ron Harper (G, 6-6, 245)
Caleb McConnell (G, 6-7, 195)
Cliff Omoruyi (C, 6-11, 240)
Myles Johnson (C, 6-11, 255)

I think we have size overall.... only mismatches seem to be we'll have more overall size in the post, while they'll have more range. Question's going to come down to how to best defend Simms.... Johnson, Harper, or a combination approach with switches/doubles.

Edit: Added in Chase Hunter, somehow missed him before.

One note on this - Clemson typically uses 11 players. No one on their squad averages more than 30 minutes a game and only three players even average 20 minutes a game.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Efficiency stats for each team:

2020-2021 NCAA BB Games: Scarlet Knights Tigers Efficiency Stats -

Betting analysis for the 2020-2021 NCAA Basketball season matchup between Rutgers and Clemson. Includes ats, over/under and straight up odds analysis.

www.teamrankings.com

All the stats say to me this is going to be close game.

 

[RUChoppin]

One note on this - Clemson typically uses 11 players. No one on their squad averages more than 30 minutes a game and only three players even average 20 minutes a game.

They've tightened up their rotation a bit toward the end of the season (per above). Simms and Trapp have both been averaging 30-plus, and their primary rotation seems to be down to 8 guys, with two others getting 8-9 min a game.

 

[LOU-RU85]

Alabama is 2 in the country on defense per Kem Pom. So no.

We are what 18? Not far off but we certainly will be the best they have faced in a while.

 

[RUChoppin]

Alabama is 2 in the country on defense per Kem Pom. So no.

That's interesting - not sure exactly how their formula works.

As far as the sports-reference.com site, we allowed 68.2 ppg (166th nationally) vs. the 4th hardest SOS, while Alabama allowed 69.4 ppg (112th nationally) vs. the 25th hardest SOS.

 

[RUChoppin]

Efficiency stats for each team:

2020-2021 NCAA BB Games: Scarlet Knights Tigers Efficiency Stats -

Betting analysis for the 2020-2021 NCAA Basketball season matchup between Rutgers and Clemson. Includes ats, over/under and straight up odds analysis.

www.teamrankings.com

All the stats say to me this is going to be close game.

Wow... razor thin in a lot of areas.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

That's interesting - not sure exactly how their formula works.

As far as the sports-reference.com site, we allowed 68.2 ppg (166th nationally) vs. the 4th hardest SOS, while Alabama allowed 69.4 ppg (112th nationally) vs. the 25th hardest SOS.

I think one needs to look at the efficiency stats to do an apples-apples comparison.

 

[RUChoppin]

I think one needs to look at the efficiency stats to do an apples-apples comparison.

Per teamrankings.com, looks like Alabama's defensive efficiency is 18th nationally at .905 (vs. the #23 SOS) and Rutgers is 102nd nationally at .969 (vs. the #8 SOS).

Kenpom's number is "how they'd fare against an average DI offense"... which appears to blend defensive efficiency with SOS, but I'm not sure how they did that

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

1st thing I looked for was blocked shots. It doesnt appear they have a shot blocker. I think that is very significant.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Looking at Torvik, Clemson seems to basically be us but with even slower tempo and slightly worse offense. We could win 40-39.

Their tempo is off the charts slow.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Who guards Simms? Who ever it is has to be engaged and ready to keep him off the offensive glass. I really don't know who on our roster that is. Harper is probably the guy, but that makes me very nervous.

 

[RUChoppin]

Who guards Simms? Who ever it is has to be engaged and ready to keep him off the offensive glass. I really don't know who on our roster that is. Harper is probably the guy, but that makes me very nervous.

The challenge is going to be what lineup they put on the floor.

When they're running with Tyson/Simms at their 4/5, then there isn't a true center for Johnson to cover, so Johnson (or Omoruyi) would need to cover 6-8/245 Simms.... with Harper on 6-8/215 Tyson.

When they're running with Simms/Baehre or Simms/Hall at their 4/5, then Johnson would be on Baehre/Hall and Harper (6-6/245) would need to be on Simms (6-8/245). If Harper's not on the floor, it'd probably have to fall to McConnell (6-7/195) or Mulcahy (6-6/210)... which wouldn't be good.

Is this the game we see Johnson/Omoruyi on the floor together?

 

[Joey Bags]

No excuses for letting Honor go HAM on us again. We have the tape on him.

 

[RUChoppin]

No excuses for letting Honor go HAM on us again. We have the tape on him.

That game, our guard minutes went to:
37 Baker, Sophomore
29 Kiss, RS Sophomore
25 Mathis, Freshman (1st career start, on the wing, over Thiam)
18 Thiam, Sophomore (recovering from flu, didn't practice all week)
3 McConnell, Freshman

From reviewing the game thread, seemed like Baker was getting beaten by Honor, especially off the dribble. We were out of position and lunging to defend his threes, even though all of our defenders had him by several inches. Calls for Mathis to switch onto him.

Baker's definitely improved his defense since then, but I'd assume Young will be the one drawing the assignment on Honor for most of the game.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If Illinois is the guide.....
Pike puts Cliff in when Georgi is the center.

If there was ever a time if there wasn’t a true center in the game I could see that be the time Myles gets his rest.

 

[DirtyRU]

Throw Caleb on Simms as much as possible IMHO. He's long, legit 6'7", a solid defender and a decent rebounder. He's giving up an inch and def. some weight/strength, but he may be able to hang some. Him and Ron should get the bulk. Problem is when they go small ball, does Myles "have to" be on Simms?