Clemson stats - Last 10 games

[RUChoppin]

So, was just watching through sections of the Miami vs. Clemson game from 2/27/21. 2020-21 College Basketball: Miami vs. Clemson (Full Game) - YouTube

Simms was their 5 on defense when he was on the floor, and would take the biggest guy on the other team to defend (usually Nysier Brooks, 7-0/240). Even when Baehre (6-10) was on the floor with him, Simms was the one defending Brooks in the paint while Baehre was defending on the wing. Clemson's other 6-10 player didn't see the floor in this game at all.

Offensively, basically no one on Clemson was playing in the post. Simms was setting up at the top for screens, then popping out for looks from the arc. Baehre also set up outside the arc in the corner most times. Simms would occasionally flash into the paint, or set up for a pass on the block - but he does not look much like a back-to-the-basket type that Johnson thrives in defending. He was also definitely rolling toward the rim from the arc on Clemson's three point attempts, hunting for offensive rebounds.

 

[RURahh]

Cliff was 50% from 3 his last game.
Wonder if the Clemson board is sweating that statistic

 

[AshCatchEm]

If the refs are even a hair better than the god awful big ten refs then myles is going to murder clemson

 

[RUChoppin]

Been watching a bit of the Clemson v. UNC game from 2/2/21, where UNC actually had some more productive bigs this season (Armando Bacot, 6-10/240, avg 12.2 pts/8.0 rb). 2020-21 College Basketball: North Carolina vs. Clemson (Full Game) - YouTube

Again, Simms mostly guarded the 5 spot, but UNC a several points had multiple 6-10 guys in the game at a time, and Baehre would have to guard one in the post. Saw a bit of Hall (the other 6-10 player besides Baehre), and he's much more of a traditional center who tries to post up on offense and defends bigs going back-to-the-basket.

Defensively, it looks like Simms tries to always front his man in the paint to deny him entry passes, and he does a good job at it. Might have some lob and alley oop opportunities over him to Johnson if he can be pushed a bit away from therim first.

Offensively, Simms spends the vast majority of the time above the FT line extended, setting screen after screen after screen and looking to draw the opposing big away from the rim. He'd frequently pop out behind the arc looking for a straight away three, but he'd largely just spend his time ping-ponging at the top setting screens to free up their shooters. Definitely opportunity for Johnson to hedge high, but need to make sure Simms doesn't then roll to the basket.

One thing Simms did really effectively, though (and Baehre would do, too) is just try to get the opposing bigs out of the paint. They set up outside offensively, but defensively work to push bigs away from the rim -to let the guards have more opportunities for rebounds.

Really feels like Hall is the only "true" big on the team looking to battle in the post, while the rest are more tall SFs or stretch PFs who spend most of their time >15 feet from the basket.

 

[RUChoppin]

From watching sections of those two games, it looks like they'll probably try to put Simms on Johnson (giving up some height/weight) and Baehre/Tyson on Harper (having a height advantage at the 4).

Was mostly watching the post play, but looks like Honor and Dawes are their quicker perimeter defenders, and will probably draw Young as their assignment.

 

[zebnatto]

No excuses for letting Honor go HAM on us again. We have the tape on him.

I think the cover has to be JY.

 

[hiwater]

Look at it from the flip side. Clemson will face several wing guys like McConnell, Harper, and Mathis who can pressure the less agile big players and bully the smaller defenders. Let's see how Clemson's small guards handle Young's pressure and high energy. I can see Geo feasting on the smaller guards by shooting over them or bullying them by driving over, around, and through them. Mulcahy will get into the paint either for his shot (layup) or set up Myles with an easy basket. Clemson can't afford to put a small guard on Mulcahy. It comes down to which team can impose their will and force the other team to adjust. If Rutgers speeds the game up, then all those big frontcourt guys become less effective.

Agree with a lot of what you wrote except the Mulchahy part. He is timid with putting up his shot and looks to pass to a fault when he drives to the hoop. He needs to put the ball up when he takes his man down low. He just has been hesitant to do that until after he's made a couple of bad play.

Also, Baker pulls up for that short jumper most of the time even when he gets edged past his defender. He could has got all the way to the block for one of his sweeping layups in each of the last 3 games and he settled for the short step back jumper instead. The last play in the second half of the Minny game was a perfect example. He had the edge and Johnson had walled off underneath, but he pulled up instead. He would have had a layup or forced the defender to foul him if he kept his drive. Either way we would have won in regulation time.

 

[rufeelinit]

First off a note of thanks to Choppin for all of his data and analysis in this thread. I will be referring to this several times before Friday night as it is a bit much for me to consume in one reading. Honestly, while I think a I know a decent amount about bball, some of these advanced stats have me questioning how much I do know.

It would seem to me that if MJ is not covering Simms the assignment would likely go to RH however I have seen too many times were we get caught in off ball switches and Paul winds up covering the four. This guy seems like he would be too big for Paul unless he is going to play more of a perimeter game in which case I am still not sure I would want Paul to be the guy.

Given their lack of a true 5, MJ seems to be the key on both ends. He needs to finish when getting the ball inside. If I am Clemson I would be playing a lot of zone defense and making RU beat me from the outside. Our 27% shooting from 3 over the last ten surely caught their eye. This will make it more difficult MJ to operate as they will double when he gets it in the low post.

I don't think we tend to hunt size advantage match ups on offense. Again if Clemson plays zone these will be more difficult to exploit. But if they play man, who amongst our wings has shown the ability to operate in the post? Ron and Paul are the only ones that come to mind and I am not sure Ron is going to have a size advantage.

Like just about every game we need to rebound on both ends. We should not get out rebounded unless we don't put forth the effort. Pike needs to emphasize that this needs to be a team effort. Seems like Simms and Dawes are the guys to stay close to around the 3pt line and I like the idea of trying work through screens rather than having MJ do so much hedging that far from the basket.

I continue to see this as a 50/50 game and one we can certainly win if we step up our all around play.

 

[RUChoppin]

First off a note of thanks to Choppin for all of his data and analysis in this thread. I will be referring to this several times before Friday night as it is a bit much for me to consume in one reading. Honestly, while I think a I know a decent amount about bball, some of these advanced stats have me questioning how much I do know.

It would seem to me that if MJ is not covering Simms the assignment would likely go to RH however I have seen too many times were we get caught in off ball switches and Paul winds up covering the four. This guy seems like he would be too big for Paul unless he is going to play more of a perimeter game in which case I am still not sure I would want Paul to be the guy.

Given their lack of a true 5, MJ seems to be the key on both ends. He needs to finish when getting the ball inside. If I am Clemson I would be playing a lot of zone defense and making RU beat me from the outside. Our 27% shooting from 3 over the last ten surely caught their eye. This will make it more difficult MJ to operate as they will double when he gets it in the low post.

I don't think we tend to hunt size advantage match ups on offense. Again if Clemson plays zone these will be more difficult to exploit. But if they play man, who amongst our wings has shown the ability to operate in the post? Ron and Paul are the only ones that come to mind and I am not sure Ron is going to have a size advantage.

Like just about every game we need to rebound on both ends. We should not get out rebounded unless we don't put forth the effort. Pike needs to emphasize that this needs to be a team effort. Seems like Simms and Dawes are the guys to stay close to around the 3pt line and I like the idea of trying work through screens rather than having MJ do so much hedging that far from the basket.

I continue to see this as a 50/50 game and one we can certainly win if we step up our all around play.

Couple things...

1. Johnson guarding Simms will take him far away from the basket. In fact, Johnson guarding anyone on Clemson will tend to take him far away from the basket, as it doesn't look like their primary offense is keeping anyone down on the blocks at all. They often have 4 guys camped outside the arc, and Simms ping-ponging above the foul line setting screens to get them open. That will limit Johnson's defensive effectiveness as a blocker, and as a rebounder.

Simms will curl into the paint, too, either to try to get a shot in the paint (a 3-4 footer, or maneuvering around his defender for a layup - and he's good at both) or on a shot to grab an offensive rebound. Since he's usually starting from up top, it can be hard to both a) block him away from the rim, and b) stay home on him for threes.

He's really got a nice looking game, and I'd love to have someone with his size/skillset on our team.

2. Offense in the post will be difficult other than with Johnson/Omoruyi, because their forwards all have height/length on anyone else who'd be setting up in the post. I think there's opportunity for lobs and alley oops, because we can get more height above the rim than they can - and they won't be swatted away like when we tried that against Cockburn. Both Johnson/Omoruyi will need to be active on the offensive glass and hunting for quick-hitters - either lobs over Simms or jump balls at the rim for dunks.

From the limited sections of games I saw, they tend to try to push centers away from the rim on defense - which also takes their bigs away from defensive positions under the basket. That should open up lanes to get to the rim - Young should be able to beat his guard defender off the dribble, Mathis won't really have the trees in front of him he's so used to running into, and Harper should be a touch quicker than the bigs that will likely be assigned to him (but they'll have height/reach on him).

As cubuffsdog said above.... it will come down to who dictates, and we'll each want to play our game rather than being reactive.

 

[LOU-RU85]

This game is no slam dunk. It will be close. There are match-up problems on both sides. If we don’t play good 3pt defense and leave open shots, we will lose. They shoot a lot of 3’s. Defense will win this game not offense.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Do they play mostly man?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I am not in love with us matching up based on the descriptions.....HOWEVER, it doesn't sound like it would be as devastating as normal if Myles were to get in to foul trouble.

It also sounds like this could be a game where the differential in value of Cliff relative to Myles shrinks a bit. Perhaps Cliff's athleticism can shine with a few back screen and some attempts at easy hoops.

I do think a key in this game is going to be getting OREB and 2nd chance points. The recipe here is Cliff and Myles going pedal to the medal. I'd favor more of a 24 to 16 minutes allocation.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

When CM is in the game he will guard Simms.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

At 6’8” that is a big ask for Caleb. But I guess who else on the roster would it be?

the question will always be who else is on the floor for Clemson. If he is the biggest or the “5” than it is our “5”

 

[RUBlackout]

As I said...CM will cover Simms with his length and up in your face defense. Simms is not a post player and more perimeter so this should be the right move. Additionally, you will wat to play more of a zone type of defense here for their outside shooting and keeping Myles/CO in the paint more often than not.
You could also keep someone like CM or even a Mathis(gives up height but still aggressive D) on Simms in a matchup zone.

On offense we need to take advantage of our height down low and just feed the monster as much as we can as they will be forced to play their 6'10" guys more often and will take away a shooter on their end.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

At 6’8” that is a big ask for Caleb. But I guess who else on the roster would it be?

the question will always be who else is on the floor for Clemson. If he is the biggest or the “5” than it is our “5”

Caleb is 6-7. Simms is 6-8. It’s close. In my opinion, we will probably need a strong defensive game from Caleb. RHJ and PM just aren’t fast enough to keep up with Simms and the other guards aren’t big enough. Tez will foul out in 5 minutes if you put him on Simms. We also can’t afford for MJ to pick up fouls. The biggest concern for us (outside of them having a career night from 3) is locking down on the defensive glass. That and secondary players. Seems like random guys tend to have big games against us. Lots of possibilities there with Clemson. They run pretty deep.

 

[RUChoppin]

Caleb is 6-7. Simms is 6-8. It’s close. In my opinion, we will probably need a strong defensive game from Caleb. RHJ and PM just aren’t fast enough to keep up with Simms and the other guards aren’t big enough. Tez will foul out in 5 minutes if you put him on Simms. We also can’t afford for MJ to pick up fouls. The biggest concern for us (outside of them having a career night from 3) is locking down on the defensive glass. That and secondary players. Seems like random guys tend to have big games against us. Lots of possibilities there with Clemson. They run pretty deep.

Caleb is 6-7 vs. Simms 6-8, yes... but he's also 195 to Simms 245. Simms is not generally a back to the basket player, but he does have post game and moves - and he'd be able to bully McConnell with his weight. Simms is a pretty complete player.

The question is, if CM is on Simms (or if Harper is), who does Johnson guard? He could conceivably sag far off of the PF (Baehre/Prosper/Tyson) to stay close to the paint. I worry if we go to a zone that they'll be 5/4 on the perimeter, and someone will always be open with good ball movement.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Caleb is 6-7 vs. Simms 6-8, yes... but he's also 195 to Simms 245. Simms is not generally a back to the basket player, but he does have post game and moves - and he'd be able to bully McConnell with his weight. Simms is a pretty complete player.

The question is, if CM is on Simms (or if Harper is), who does Johnson guard? He could conceivably sag far off of the PF (Baehre/Prosper/Tyson) to stay close to the paint. I worry if we go to a zone that they'll be 5/4 on the perimeter, and someone will always be open with good ball movement.

They present problems for us when they are on offense, but we present problems when we're on offense.

What we need to do to control the game in our favor:
If we push the ball, that's a problem for them as they want a halfcourt slow pace game.

I would post up Mathis against Clemson's guards to force Clemson to decide which personnel they go with during the game.

Clemson will have problems finding someone to guard Harper if he pulls his guy away from the basket. That creates several issues for Clemson. Myles becomes a big threat in the post, and Harper can drive by his guy.
They have no one to stop Myles in the post unless they double, which would leave someone open.

Geo should have no problem getting his shot off (mid-range game).

With no shot-blocker in the middle for Clemson, Young should be able to drive the lane for an easy shot or assist.

I think the keys to our success begin with Young and Mathis pressuring Clemson guards up the court. One, it shortens the time they have to operate their halfcourt offense. Two, I don't find Clemson's guards to be great ballhandlers.

I would not be surprised to see Clemson play some zone since everyone knows we're not a great shooting team from 3pt land. If that's the case, Mulcahy at the FT line against the zone becomes important to Rutgers' ability to attack it as they did against Syracuse.

I think Pike should mix his defense similar to what he did against Syracuse. Remember, Rutgers is good at starting in a zone and switching to man halfway through the possession. Every time they did that, it confused the opposing team into bad shots or turnovers.

 

[RUChoppin]

They present problems for us when they are on offense, but we present problems when we're on offense.

What we need to do to control the game in our favor:
If we push the ball, that's a problem for them as they want a halfcourt slow pace game.

I would post up Mathis against Clemson's guards to force Clemson to decide which personnel they go with during the game.

Clemson will have problems finding someone to guard Harper if he pulls his guy away from the basket. That creates several issues for Clemson. Myles becomes a big threat in the post, and Harper can drive by his guy.
They have no one to stop Myles in the post unless they double, which would leave someone open.

Geo should have no problem getting his shot off (mid-range game).

With no shot-blocker in the middle for Clemson, Young should be able to drive the lane for an easy shot or assist.

I think the keys to our success begin with Young and Mathis pressuring Clemson guards up the court. One, it shortens the time they have to operate their halfcourt offense. Two, I don't find Clemson's guards to be great ballhandlers.

I would not be surprised to see Clemson play some zone since everyone knows we're not a great shooting team from 3pt land. If that's the case, Mulcahy at the FT line against the zone becomes important to Rutgers' ability to attack it as they did against Syracuse.

I think Pike should mix his defense similar to what he did against Syracuse. Remember, Rutgers is good at starting in a zone and switching to man halfway through the possession. Every time they did that, it confused the opposing team into bad shots or turnovers.

My guess is that their starting defense on Johnson will be Simms fronting him, and the guards working hard to deny entry passes. Simms has good footwork and is crafty around the basket, but as long as Johnson is able to stay in the paint he'll have a big advantage on getting rebounds - and should be able to go up top for lobs over Simms for dunks or caught passes deep under the basket. As you say, there aren't really shot blockers on their team, so our penetrating guards should be able to break down their man and only have Simms to beat as secondary help - which would also leave Johnson open for passes or putbacks.

They have good defensive "per game" numbers, but largely because they slow the pace to a crawl and reduce the overall number of possessions - kind of like CViv's approach of years past, make it a grind and force the other team to be efficient.

We should have opportunities for open shots - the question, as always, will be hitting them.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Actually - thinking more about it, Pike might go with a big guarding Simms with Caleb or Mathis coming in on the help at points in the game. That’s also a possibility. I just really hope he doesn’t start the game this way with PM or RHJ in that role. This would be a mistake. Neither of them have done well with this recently

 

[rufeelinit]

They present problems for us when they are on offense, but we present problems when we're on offense.

What we need to do to control the game in our favor:
If we push the ball, that's a problem for them as they want a halfcourt slow pace game.

I would post up Mathis against Clemson's guards to force Clemson to decide which personnel they go with during the game.

Clemson will have problems finding someone to guard Harper if he pulls his guy away from the basket. That creates several issues for Clemson. Myles becomes a big threat in the post, and Harper can drive by his guy.
They have no one to stop Myles in the post unless they double, which would leave someone open.

Geo should have no problem getting his shot off (mid-range game).

With no shot-blocker in the middle for Clemson, Young should be able to drive the lane for an easy shot or assist.

I think the keys to our success begin with Young and Mathis pressuring Clemson guards up the court. One, it shortens the time they have to operate their halfcourt offense. Two, I don't find Clemson's guards to be great ballhandlers.

I would not be surprised to see Clemson play some zone since everyone knows we're not a great shooting team from 3pt land. If that's the case, Mulcahy at the FT line against the zone becomes important to Rutgers' ability to attack it as they did against Syracuse.

I think Pike should mix his defense similar to what he did against Syracuse. Remember, Rutgers is good at starting in a zone and switching to man halfway through the possession. Every time they did that, it confused the opposing team into bad shots or turnovers.

While there maybe post up opportunities for some of our wings in this matchup, I will again ask, can you point to a particular player or game where one of our wings have had success posting up? I just can't recall a situation where we have exploited that in the past. You mention Montez, but have we seen him do that successfully? I am thinking of players other than MJ. Even RH doesn't post up much, but recently has been putting it on the floor and taking it to the rim.

 

[G- RUnit]

Think the most interesting stat about Clemson is that they are the 7th luckiest team in the nation per Kenpom.

Bodes well.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Myles guards Simms if he is the 5. Not even a debate.

 

[RUfromSoCal?]

ACC is soft

 

[cubuffsdoug]

While there maybe post up opportunities for some of our wings in this matchup, I will again ask, can you point to a particular player or game where one of our wings have had success posting up? I just can't recall a situation where we have exploited that in the past. You mention Montez, but have we seen him do that successfully? I am thinking of players other than MJ. Even RH doesn't post up much, but recently has been putting it on the floor and taking it to the rim.

The players I've mentioned have done it in the past against non-conference opponents with smaller guards. Play inside the B1G doesn't allow for it since everyone has guards of similar size as Rutgers. That's why you can't recall seeing it.

 

[RUChoppin]

Myles guards Simms if he is the 5. Not even a debate.

Agree, but it will be a challenge for him. It will draw him away from the basket and put him a risky positions for fouls on the perimeter. He has to play smart.

 

[RUChoppin]

Just for fun, comparing Johnson's performance to some other teams where Johnson ended up matched up against a guy in the 6-8/6-9 range.

@Maryland: 25 min, 10 pts, 13 rb, 3 blk, 4 pf
@Ohio St: 15 min, 2 pts, 2 rb, 0 blk, 5 pf
@Mich St: 29 min, 2 pts, 7 rb, 3 blk, 2 pf
vs. Ohio St: 25 min, 8 pts, 8 rb, 1 blk, 3 pf
@Penn St: 22 min, 14 pts, 7 rb, 2 blk, 2 pf
@Indiana: 27 min, 8 pts, 8 rb, 5 blk, 3 pf
vs. Maryland: 24 min, 2 pts, 8 rb, 0 blk, 2 pf
vs. Indiana: 27 min, 10 pts, 10 rb, 7 blk, 3 pf
@Nebraska: 22 min, 2 pts, 4 rb, 4 blk, 1 pf
@Minnesota: 31 min, 9 pts, 15 rb, 0 blk, 3 pf
(n) Indiana: 30 min, 10 pts, 13 rb, 3 blk, 3 pf

Note: Game @MSU had only 2 min from their 6-11 center Bingham, but game vs. MSU had 19 min, so I didn't include it. Game vs. MN had Robbins, but game @MN did not.

Averages: 25.2 min, 7.0 pts, 8.6 rb, 2.5 blk, 2.8 pf

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Agree, but it will be a challenge for him. It will draw him away from the basket and put him a risky positions for fouls on the perimeter. He has to play smart.

The problem with that is the importance of help defense to bail out MJ and the lacking quality of it with the starting line up lately. Nobody over 6-3 on the roster understands the concept of it well except CM and Tez (except Tez fouls often when he comes in on the help). PM is dreadful with this and RHJ isn’t good with it either. Neither is good on the rotations and they just don’t make good decisions on when to leave their man to contest when MJ gets beat or loses his man on the back door.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Agree, but it will be a challenge for him. It will draw him away from the basket and put him a risky positions for fouls on the perimeter. He has to play smart.

They wouldn't be the 1st and hopefully wont be the last!!!!! that does this,

 

[Night Man]

I say we put Herve on Simms

 

[DirtyRU]

Simms is flatout gonna be a major problem for us. We have nobody to defend him and they run everything through him. It's a problem folks. I initially thought Caleb before watching tape on Clemson, but nah... Simms is too strong, he'll bully him. IDC if he's not much of a paint player... he would be against Caleb. It's gonna have to be a combo of Myles, Cliff and Duke (if the other two get in foul trouble) and it is what it is.

Let's also not sleep on their guards. Honor we know can ball, but Dawes, Trapp, Chase Hunter... these guys can all play. Enough of this weak ACC talk. That is BS. These guys are ballers plain and simple.

This matchup is concerning. That said, as stated above, no doubt we also present matchup problems for them. Ron could be a major problem for them as I don't see anyone on their roster who matches up well with him. Jacob and Geo could certainly get theirs. And "IF" Myles somehow survives enough to actually play for an extended period of time, if he gets low-post position on Simms, Simms ain't stopping him, so that's exploitable when it's there.

We need gutsy D and effort on the boards, we also need Clemson to not torch us from three, and we need to get some steals and force some turnovers, which we typically can do.

 

[Rutgers25]

Harper has to be a willing

Simms is flatout gonna be a major problem for us. We have nobody to defend him and they run everything through him. It's a problem folks. I initially thought Caleb before watching tape on Clemson, but nah... Simms is too strong, he'll bully him. IDC if he's not much of a paint player... he would be against Caleb. It's gonna have to be a combo of Myles, Cliff and Duke (if the other two get in foul trouble) and it is what it is.

Let's also not sleep on their guards. Honor we know can ball, but Dawes, Trapp, Chase Hunter... these guys can all play. Enough of this weak ACC talk. That is BS. These guys are ballers plain and simple.

This matchup is concerning. That said, as stated above, no doubt we also present matchup problems for them. Ron could be a major problem for them as I don't see anyone on their roster who matches up well with him. Jacob and Geo could certainly get theirs. And "IF" Myles somehow survives enough to actually play for an extended period of time, if he gets low-post position on Simms, Simms ain't stopping him, so that's exploitable when it's there.

We need gutsy D and effort on the boards, we also need Clemson to not torch us from three, and we need to get some steals and force some turnovers, which we typically can do.

Good post. We’ve really struggled against active 4s. Even mediocre guys like Johnson on Minnesota torched us. Ron is really going to have to stick his nose in there and rebound and defend. This feels like a game that Myles could be out of sorts.

Need Geo to be aggressive on O.

 

[DirtyRU]

BTW, Prosper, Hall and Kidd, all frosh, Hunter a soph, and Simms a senior... all five of these guys were 4-star prospects per Rivals, with a few of them being top 100 guys. The rest of the roster is 3-star guys. This team has talent, plain and simple. We need to bring it.