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Current Substitution Rotation - Deserves Its Own Thread

lion1983

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I posted this in another thread, in response to Harper and Bailey both being out of the line-up at the same time for a couple of minutes against SHU. I felt it deserved its own thread.

Feel free to correct my understanding of how the rotation has been employed as laid out below: I won't swear to being spot-on, though I think I am pretty close.

Also, which people will do anyway, feel free to pile on with comments about what the substitution rotation SHOULD be.

The way it appears to be working out, the rotation of Harper and Bailey happens in stages in each half:

Stage 1: Starting line-up, both in together for about 4-6 minutes.

Stage 2: BAILEY gets the 1st rest, it looks like, for several minutes.

Stage 3: Bailey returns and Harper hits the bench for a rest Usually Bailey and another player come in at the same time - the other player being a guard to replace Harper ... i.e. Bailey does not sub for Harper directly).

Stage 4: Harper returns to the game, while Bailey stays in the game. This then remains the same for the rest of the half (both 1st and 2nd half).

There are times when Harper and/or Bailey, other than foul trouble, may get a quick rest, not at the same time, 1 minute before a scheduled TV time out, if there is a stoppage - or if Pikiell has plenty of time outs left he will often call a timeout at the 6 or 5 minute mark of the 2nd half after an RU make, and give one of these 2 stars a quick break.

In regards the overall rotation, it has varied over the course of the 1st 11 games. The last 2 games, with Davis starting, without going back and checking exactly, it FEELS like the rotation works something like this (I could be wrong, but think I am close):

1) Starters: Harper, Bailey, Williams, Ogbole, Davis.

2) Sommerville is generally the 1st man off the bench, replacing Ogbole - sometimes as early as the 17:30 mark of each half - a little later if Ogbole is visibly doing well - but NEVER later than the 16 minute mark, I don't think.

3) If Sommerville enters later, Derkack enters with him, for Williams, Davis or Harper, Williams and/or Davis rested first, I think ... but sometimes Derkack is a separate entry from Sommerville...

4) Hayes seems to be next in line, to rest Bailey. Martini may also come in around this time, in situational substitution for Sommerville.

5) Bailey returns, along with either Acuff or Williams, while Harper rests - and someone else of course must depart (Hayes or Derkack),

6) Harper returns - but Davis does NOT, unless there is a perceived need for defensive focus.

There are various differing iterations in the 2nd half, in particular, depending on what Pikiell sees as defensive versus offensive needs, foul situations, and match-ups. For example, against Penn State, after their 2 bigs got foul trouble and PSU went small ball, Pikiell responded with an RU version of small ball: Bailey at the "5", Derkack, Williams, Harper and either Davis or Hayes (defense/offense).
 
At some point I would like to see a big rotation with both Somerville and Ogbole…also a small rotation with neither Somerville and Ogbole, which I think we saw once Ohio State game at the very end. But Rotations need to improve. Pike needs to see what the game flow is and react not have such a scripted rotation.
RU closed the last 5-7 minutes of the Penn State game with a "small ball" 5: Bailey, Derkack, Harper, Williams and alternating Davis and Hayes for defense/offense.

Teams like Indiana and Maryland will be an interesting challenge: Those 2 (and a couple of others) START 2 bigs. Indiana starts Ballo at the 5 and Reneau at the 4; Maryland starts Reese at the 5 and Queen at the 4. I am not sure how Bailey can defend against Reneau or Queen - Bailey is not a "4" at all, not defensively - he is a pure WF, a "3". This is where Martini was SUPPOSED to come into play, as a "4." But he has so far shown himself to be almost completely useless defensively against any offensive post player of any skill.

So far, the Martini "miss" by Pikiell is proving to be the most costly to the team, roster construction - and Martini was clearly Pikiell's 1st choice portal transfer. Not every portal transfer will work out in this era - some "miss" rate is to be expected. But if Martini does not improve what he contributes ASAP, that will be a huge miss ... and Grant will have to step up as a post defender in Big Ten play. Because RU WILL need a post defender besides Ogbole, and Sommerville - at times to play alongside one of those 2 ... or Sommerville may have to play some "4" with Ogbole.
 
RU closed the last 5-7 minutes of the Penn State game with a "small ball" 5: Bailey, Derkack, Harper, Williams and alternating Davis and Hayes for defense/offense.

Teams like Indiana and Maryland will be an interesting challenge: Those 2 (and a couple of others) START 2 bigs. Indiana starts Ballo at the 5 and Reneau at the 4; Maryland starts Reese at the 5 and Queen at the 4. I am not sure how Bailey can defend against Reneau or Queen - Bailey is not a "4" at all, not defensively - he is a pure WF, a "3". This is where Martini was SUPPOSED to come into play, as a "4." But he has so far shown himself to be almost completely useless defensively against any offensive post player of any skill.

So far, the Martini "miss" by Pikiell is proving to be the most costly to the team, roster construction - and Martini was clearly Pikiell's 1st choice portal transfer. Not every portal transfer will work out in this era - some "miss" rate is to be expected. But if Martini does not improve what he contributes ASAP, that will be a huge miss ... and Grant will have to step up as a post defender in Big Ten play. Because RU WILL need a post defender besides Ogbole, and Sommerville - at times to play alongside one of those 2 ... or Sommerville may have to play some "4" with Ogbole.
Most of this makes sense but Lathan cannot play the 4 on D. Not against BIG competition. Hes not fast enough.
 
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Most of this makes sense but Lathan cannot play the 4 on D. Not against BIG competition. Hes not fast enough.
While I generally agree, what do you do against Maryland and Indiana? Reese/Queen and Ballo/Reneau are really 2 "5"s starting... Each pair are 90% post players. Can Bailey guard either Queen, Reese, Reneau or Ballo in the low post? I don't think he is physically strong enough... And will get fouls or be worn down.

On the other hand, can Reneau or Queen/Reese cover Bailey?

Now I am less concerned about Michigan and their 2 bigs because Goldin is more of a stretch 4 than a post up player.
 
While I generally agree, what do you do against Maryland and Indiana? Reese/Queen and Ballo/Reneau are really 2 "5"s starting... Each pair are 90% post players. Can Bailey guard either Queen, Reese, Reneau or Ballo in the low post? I don't think he is physically strong enough... And will get fouls or be worn down.

On the other hand, can Reneau or Queen/Reese cover Bailey?

Now I am less concerned about Michigan and their 2 bigs because Goldin is more of a stretch 4 than a post up player.
Those 2 games are horrible matchups for this lineup. Bulk and height is not our strong suit. Martini too slow afoot for either, Jordan to small.. Bailey will have to do it and he’s gonna probably get pushed around … a lot. That will surely affect his offensive game.
 
While I generally agree, what do you do against Maryland and Indiana? Reese/Queen and Ballo/Reneau are really 2 "5"s starting... Each pair are 90% post players. Can Bailey guard either Queen, Reese, Reneau or Ballo in the low post? I don't think he is physically strong enough... And will get fouls or be worn down.

On the other hand, can Reneau or Queen/Reese cover Bailey?

Now I am less concerned about Michigan and their 2 bigs because Goldin is more of a stretch 4 than a post up player.
Might be a Martini game (gulp), but yes I have Bailey try and guard one of them. You have the matchup problem on the other end. Fouls and being worn down are huge potential issues. I also think a very good way of stopping a team that tries to get it inside is have your guards try and play tight defense and push the offense a few feet back from where they want to operate.
 
So far, the Martini "miss" by Pikiell is proving to be the most costly to the team, roster construction - and Martini was clearly Pikiell's 1st choice portal transfer. Not every portal transfer will work out in this era - some "miss" rate is to be expected. But if Martini does not improve what he contributes ASAP, that will be a huge miss ... and Grant will have to step up as a post defender in Big Ten play. Because RU WILL need a post defender besides Ogbole, and Sommerville - at times to play alongside one of those 2 ... or Sommerville may have to play some "4" with Ogbole.
I think if Grant doesn't develop soon it could end up the miss just as big is not having a wing that can defend.

Worth being said "2s" are a dime a dozen where as "3/4s" are low in supply. Not many 6'7''+ people roaming the earth.
 
I think if Grant doesn't develop soon it could end up the miss just as big is not having a wing that can defend.

Worth being said "2s" are a dime a dozen where as "3/4s" are low in supply. Not many 6'7''+ people roaming the earth.
Well ... IMO Derkack is a WF who can defend, and is 6'6". When RU got him and I looked at his tape, it was clear to me he was not really a 2G or PG (too many turnovers), but a WF in skillset ... I figured at the time he'd be Bailey's back-up at WF. Dortch is supposedly a WF, and is at least 6'9", but I am certain at this stage he will almost certainly redshirt. Grant's redshirt has been burned, so he might as well play if Pikiell can find a use for him ... 6'7" "3 and D" guy, at 3 and 4 ... more athletic than Martini, much less experienced of course (not that experience has helped Martini perform so far).

Remember, Hayes was NOT RU's first choice. RU had been pursuing a 6'5" to 6'6" "3 and D" guy who had been 1st team Defense in his conference, from a different team out West, from a mid-major conference ... I remember he was not a great 3-point shooter, maybe 28%-30%, but as I said was a 1st Team All Defense in his conference. Can't remember his name, though. [EDIT: Jaden Jones, from Long Beach St, went to Oklahoma - has not yet played, I think a back injury - so would not have helped, so far, eh? 38% 3-point shooter as a Senior, 32% as a Junior, 37% as a Soph, 44% as a frosh, 37% career 3-point shooter ... averaged 1.5 steals per game over 4 years, 0.8 blocked shots per game - at 6'5"]

And TWO years ago, RU was hot after Zach Hicks of Temple (now at PSU) - a perfect fit as a pure "3 and D" 6'7" player - but missed.
 
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I think of Dercack as 6'3'', but i guess everyone on our team except Davis is short so Dercack doesnt look tall!
Look, we never know for sure each player's actual height since RU (like so many other teams) plays games with heights.

When I watched the multiple practice videos, the team pictures, clips, etc., this is how I sort of saw the various heights, in order from shortest to tallest:

Davis - a legit 6'2" ... yes, not huge, but not Fernandes height either.

Acuff - 6'3" - looks shorter than Williams but taller than Davis

Williams - 6'4" - and I think a legit 6'4"

Hayes - 6'5" - taller than Williams by just a bit, shorter than Martini

Martini - 6'6" - and not even guaranteed he is THAT tall, from various pictures and video clips showing him next to RU players.

Derkack - 6'6" - legit, I think.

Harper - 6'6" - legit ... maybe even a fraction taller - very long arm span helps make him look taller.

Grant - 6'7" - taller than Harper, shorter than Bailey and Sommerville.

Sommerville - 6'8" - ish ... pretty sure he is NOT 6'10" or even 6'9" ... strong body, but I suspect if taller than 6'8" just by a bit.

Bailey - 6'9" - he MIGHT be a fraction shorter - but he also might be a legit 6'9". In the McDonald's All American game he appeared distinctly shorter than Cooper Flagg (listed at 6'9") - but he also might still be growing.

Dortch - 6'9" to 6'10" - Pikiell says he is 6'10", and though you cannot believe any heights from RU or Pikiell, Dortch might actually be 6'10" - he looks really tall, to me, taller than Bailey ... also might still be growing.

Ogbole - 6'10" - or a little taller - definitely taller than Omoruyi, for example (and the NBA measured Omoruyi at 6'9" - though they do it without shoes, while many college teams measure WITH shoes) ... taller than Dortch and Bailey.

To me, Hayes and Martini are shorter than I expected - Martini by a material amount (reminds me of the Sellers and Rashod Kent mis-listed heights - Sellers listed at 6'5" but really was closer ot 6'3" - amazing even in that era how GREAT he was as a 6'3" to 6'3 1/2" POWER FORWARD ... and Kent listed at 6'6" and was no more than 6'4" - still an amazing athlete). Dortch taller than expected, Grant a fraction shorter ... Acuff shorter than expected also.

For what it worth, that is my take on heights.
 
While I generally agree, what do you do against Maryland and Indiana? Reese/Queen and Ballo/Reneau are really 2 "5"s starting... Each pair are 90% post players. Can Bailey guard either Queen, Reese, Reneau or Ballo in the low post? I don't think he is physically strong enough... And will get fouls or be worn down.

On the other hand, can Reneau or Queen/Reese cover Bailey

While I generally agree, what do you do against Maryland and Indiana? Reese/Queen and Ballo/Reneau are really 2 "5"s starting... Each pair are 90% post players. Can Bailey guard either Queen, Reese, Reneau or Ballo in the low post? I don't think he is physically strong enough... And will get fouls or be worn down.

On the other hand, can Reneau or Queen/Reese cover Bailey?

Now I am less concerned about Michigan and their 2 bigs because Goldin is more of a stretch 4 than a post up player.
Two thoughts:

1) Who can and cannot do what is entirely dependent on matchup. If the oposing 4 is a perimeter player and slasher, well that's not good for Lathan. If the four is not a 1-2-3 option and likes to play bully-ball, I think is okay. (Lathan looks 6'9" to me, has better hops than appearance might suggest.) Also, if LS is our four that does not necessarily guard the opponent's four. It will likely be a four, but it's "coach, find the best matchup";
2) A symmetrical matchups generally create both weaknesses and benefits, so if we have Ace at the 4 and we're getting hurt on the glass, we have to play our cards that Ace is a major problem (anf foul-shooting machine) away from the basket.Again, "coach, create posiyive matchups, make 'em pay>"

Just gotta add, we're all oversimplifying: foe's 4 can depend upon who our four is; other team could go with two 3s or two 5s; increase or decrease defensive help/trapping; go zone. Aka: Not checkers< chess.
 
If Grant could play defense, hed be in the game. RU is absolutely desperate for a guy his size that can defend.

At this point, I'm not sure how Martini gets minutes. He isn't shooting, not getting rebounds, not a foul enforcer and has struggled mightily on defense. There is so much opportunity to get his minutes and Davis's minutes indirectly.

What is the staff's message to Grant? In his limited minutes, he thought he was a main player on offense. It makes me scratch my head.

My message to him is "defense is your way to play 8 to 12 minutes a game. Do the job we need you to do and it's possible that could lead to more minutes." I'd then coach him up to put him in the best position.

There's a breakdown somewhere..... coaching, skill or desire.
 
RU closed the last 5-7 minutes of the Penn State game with a "small ball" 5: Bailey, Derkack, Harper, Williams and alternating Davis and Hayes for defense/offense.

Teams like Indiana and Maryland will be an interesting challenge: Those 2 (and a couple of others) START 2 bigs. Indiana starts Ballo at the 5 and Reneau at the 4; Maryland starts Reese at the 5 and Queen at the 4. I am not sure how Bailey can defend against Reneau or Queen - Bailey is not a "4" at all, not defensively - he is a pure WF, a "3". This is where Martini was SUPPOSED to come into play, as a "4." But he has so far shown himself to be almost completely useless defensively against any offensive post player of any skill.

So far, the Martini "miss" by Pikiell is proving to be the most costly to the team, roster construction - and Martini was clearly Pikiell's 1st choice portal transfer. Not every portal transfer will work out in this era - some "miss" rate is to be expected. But if Martini does not improve what he contributes ASAP, that will be a huge miss ... and Grant will have to step up as a post defender in Big Ten play. Because RU WILL need a post defender besides Ogbole, and Sommerville - at times to play alongside one of those 2 ... or Sommerville may have to play some "4" with Ogbole.
Michigan also starts 2 seven footers!
 
Michigan also starts 2 seven footers!
True, Dat (as they say in New Orleans!).

But Wolf is more of a stretch 4 than the Indiana and Maryland "4"'s ... though he can also post up, I know.

Michigan can shoot the ball ... over 50% from the field overall, 36% from 3. An interesting team ... not sure what to make of them. Only 2 losses - and those by 2 points each to Wake Forest and Arkansas. Crushed some teams, and won some close games - notably close wins versus Wisconsin (beat by 3) and Iowa (beat by 2).

I have no idea how RU will fare - though RU HAS to keep getting better or winning becomes much more difficult ... but I would like to think RU is competitive with Wisconsin, Iowa and Wake Forest (I've seen all them play) ... which means RU can be competitive with Michigan also ... somehow. Each game is a chess match of match-ups ... how will RU match up ... but also, how will the other team match-up vs Harper and Bailey, in particular.

All along, RU's performance was going to be tied to the performance of Bailey and Harper. Those have to be our leading scorers pretty much every game. I do not think we have yet had a game where both Harper and Bailey have had their "A" game in the same game ... The closest games where they both had "A" games was maybe Alabama (Harper was unreal, Bailey was 9-18 FG and 22 points - but just 4 rebounds) and maybe Penn St (Harper was outstanding, and Bailey was great on the Boards but just 6-14 FG). Bailey had an "A" game vs Texas A&M - but Harper, though he scored 20, was just 6-20 FG. Against ND, Harper was also unreal, but Bailey had just 10 points on 4-10 FG. SHU ... well both were very good, I guess - both over 20 points, both over 50% FG, both outstanding.

The 3 games that were probably the 3 best games for the combo of Harper and Bailey (i.e. when both arguably had "A" games), were Alabama - a top 10 team where RU had the ball down 2 points with 45 seconds left, Penn State, which was at home and RU won, and SHU, also at home and a win. I am still not convinced we have seen Bailey's best game yet - hard to think Harper can be better than he was against ND, Alabama or even PSU or SHU. RU will need both to be at their "A" game level to beat teams in the Big Ten, I would think.
 
I was going to just “like” this post. But you deserve a comment. Great work. Now put this in power point. Add a graph or two. Give it catchy titles. Thanks. COB tomorrow.
 
True, Dat (as they say in New Orleans!).

But Wolf is more of a stretch 4 than the Indiana and Maryland "4"'s ... though he can also post up, I know.

Michigan can shoot the ball ... over 50% from the field overall, 36% from 3. An interesting team ... not sure what to make of them. Only 2 losses - and those by 2 points each to Wake Forest and Arkansas. Crushed some teams, and won some close games - notably close wins versus Wisconsin (beat by 3) and Iowa (beat by 2).

I have no idea how RU will fare - though RU HAS to keep getting better or winning becomes much more difficult ... but I would like to think RU is competitive with Wisconsin, Iowa and Wake Forest (I've seen all them play) ... which means RU can be competitive with Michigan also ... somehow. Each game is a chess match of match-ups ... how will RU match up ... but also, how will the other team match-up vs Harper and Bailey, in particular.

All along, RU's performance was going to be tied to the performance of Bailey and Harper. Those have to be our leading scorers pretty much every game. I do not think we have yet had a game where both Harper and Bailey have had their "A" game in the same game ... The closest games where they both had "A" games was maybe Alabama (Harper was unreal, Bailey was 9-18 FG and 22 points - but just 4 rebounds) and maybe Penn St (Harper was outstanding, and Bailey was great on the Boards but just 6-14 FG). Bailey had an "A" game vs Texas A&M - but Harper, though he scored 20, was just 6-20 FG. Against ND, Harper was also unreal, but Bailey had just 10 points on 4-10 FG. SHU ... well both were very good, I guess - both over 20 points, both over 50% FG, both outstanding.

The 3 games that were probably the 3 best games for the combo of Harper and Bailey (i.e. when both arguably had "A" games), were Alabama - a top 10 team where RU had the ball down 2 points with 45 seconds left, Penn State, which was at home and RU won, and SHU, also at home and a win. I am still not convinced we have seen Bailey's best game yet - hard to think Harper can be better than he was against ND, Alabama or even PSU or SHU. RU will need both to be at their "A" game level to beat teams in the Big Ten, I would think.
When the 2 seven footers repeatedly ran the high pick and roll together v. the Badgers it gave them fits. That part of Michigan’s game really scares me v RU. In fact, I edited this post to note that the Wolf to Goldin high pick and roll is also giving No. 14 Oklahoma fits, albeit in a game that’s tied right now.
 
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