A thread started by Knight Shift about more tickets being available kind of veered OT after a comment about the RU fanbase and started some debate about where RU's fanbase stands in the B1G. A lot of comments about it being bad, some stating definitely in the middle, some with definite comments about being better than other teams, etc. Very difficult to judge as every fanbase probably views itself as fanatics and rabid, more so than teams of similar ilk. I would bet that the fanbases of other teams would have very similar comments on this topic. Got me wondering, and since there really is not objective standard of "rabidness" I took what numbers I had at hand and set up a very simplistic comparison based on some stats I could pull up for the B1G. The numbers I compared were from 2014 (with some comments):
Total Stadium Capacity - may seem unfair to some, but the fact of the matter is they don't build the seats unless they can fill them and a team's stadium is a good metric of the popularity of a team over a long period of time. Also, you don't have a Pitt/Temple situation in the B1G where you have a team playing in a stadium built for an NFL team.
Attendance as percentage of capacity - a pretty standard number here as most teams in the B1G are near capacity with slight fluctuations depending on recent success, but served mainly to penalize some teams like Purdue, Indiana and Illinois.
TV Viewers - a lot of things can be argued here as viewers are largely dependent on game selection, time slots, channels, opponents. Also, some bumps here for teams with ND on the schedule last year (Michigan, Purdue, Northwestern) and in the championship games, etc. But also reflective of the fandom in 2014, which is what we are discussing and the fluctuations are minimized as this is one of five categories. And the bottom line is - you get selected for good slots if you have a lot of fans that will watch.
Spring Game attendance - kind of an oddball stat, but one that can say a lot about a fan base. Interesting that Michigan kind of an outlier here (only 15K at spring game) compared to what you would expect, but they got a big bump in the next category so I guess it evens out. Besides Michigan and, maybe Wisconsin, spring game attendance closely mirrors overall performance of the fan base in this comparison.
Program Valuation - taken from a WSJ article in 2015, an attempt to put a value on college football teams if they could be bought and sold like professional franchises. The reviewers did add some subjectivity to these values, projecting future revenues and growth. They didn't fall right in line with a review of revenues, with tOSU and Michigan getting a big bump from WSJ, but they were close enough with the rest of the schools that I was pretty comfortable with them. Plus, it was the only one I could find that listed ALL of the B1G schools. Some may question this, but it's a good barometer of fandom - the ability to generate revenues and donations.
It was a pretty straightforward comparison by percentage - I basically took the median of each category, calculated the teams percentage of the median, and took the average percentage of the 5 categories for each team. So basically, if you are 100% you are the average B1G team. I could have gotten a little trickier comparing the stats for some of you statistic freaks, but at first glance it seemed as if the results were not going to change much if I drilled down more. There is a lot of data here.
Even considering some things that I would consider bumps in ratings - very successful seasons in 2014 (tOSU, Michigan State, Minnesota), entry into a new conference (Rutgers, Maryland) and some minuses like really poor seasons (Michigan), adverse revenue impact/sanctions (PSU) - the conference really broke down into 3 tiers - pretty much what you would expect:
tOSU - 207%
PSU - 161%
Nebraska - 155%
Michigan - 150%
The four you would expect, with the most history and tradition in the B1G. tOSU at the head of the class with the most recent success, but if any of the four went on a similar run they would move to the head. tOSU with huge bumps from TV viewers and the WSJ valuation which was a little out of line with what you would expect from revenues.
Michigan State - 122%
Iowa - 100%
Wisconsin - 96%
Again, the next 3 you would expect. MSU with a bump given their recent success - huge viewership last year. Iowa may surprise, but they have been a very succesful team over a number of years and have built a very good foundation. Still a pretty monumental task for any of these to move into the top tier, it would probably take years more success for MSU to do this. Building a fan base doesn't happen overnight.
Minnesota - 74%
Rutgers - 60%
Maryland - 60%
Purdue - 58%
Indiana - 54%
Northwestern - 51%
Illinois - 51%
Minnesota with a very successful season last year bumps them to the top and they probably would be at the head of this class anyway most years - they generate a surprising amount of revenue. The rest of the group pretty similar in comparison to the league as a whole although Northwestern and Illinois stand out as the worst. Again, all these programs are years of success away from generating the fanbase of those in the next tier.
Overall, the B1G has four of the top fanbases in all of college football in tOSU, Michigan, Nebraska & PSU. Beyond that there are 3 programs who have built rather large and loyal followings over the years in MSU, Wisconsin and Iowa. The top half of the conference is pretty much set. The bottom of the conference probably varies with 5 squads probably vying to be 8th on a yearly basis in terms of fanbase (Minnesota, RU, Maryland, Purdue & Indiana) with Minnesota currently showing the best because of recent success. Illinois & Northwestern trail the pack.
Obviously, there are many ways to look at these statistics and if there is another category out there that makes sense I would be happy to include it. One that came to mind to measure fandom was merchandising, but these statistics are pretty much impossible to get and measures basketball also, and this is just a look at football. As for RU's standing in each individual category
Stadium Capacity - 52,454/73% (B1G avg 71,714)
Attendance/Capacity - 96.5%/107% (B1G avg 90.5%)
TV Viewers - 1.26 million/54% (B1G avg 2.35)
Spring Game - 11,500/50% (B1G avg 23,055)
Program Value - 62,740,000/17% (B1G avg 376,621)
Total Stadium Capacity - may seem unfair to some, but the fact of the matter is they don't build the seats unless they can fill them and a team's stadium is a good metric of the popularity of a team over a long period of time. Also, you don't have a Pitt/Temple situation in the B1G where you have a team playing in a stadium built for an NFL team.
Attendance as percentage of capacity - a pretty standard number here as most teams in the B1G are near capacity with slight fluctuations depending on recent success, but served mainly to penalize some teams like Purdue, Indiana and Illinois.
TV Viewers - a lot of things can be argued here as viewers are largely dependent on game selection, time slots, channels, opponents. Also, some bumps here for teams with ND on the schedule last year (Michigan, Purdue, Northwestern) and in the championship games, etc. But also reflective of the fandom in 2014, which is what we are discussing and the fluctuations are minimized as this is one of five categories. And the bottom line is - you get selected for good slots if you have a lot of fans that will watch.
Spring Game attendance - kind of an oddball stat, but one that can say a lot about a fan base. Interesting that Michigan kind of an outlier here (only 15K at spring game) compared to what you would expect, but they got a big bump in the next category so I guess it evens out. Besides Michigan and, maybe Wisconsin, spring game attendance closely mirrors overall performance of the fan base in this comparison.
Program Valuation - taken from a WSJ article in 2015, an attempt to put a value on college football teams if they could be bought and sold like professional franchises. The reviewers did add some subjectivity to these values, projecting future revenues and growth. They didn't fall right in line with a review of revenues, with tOSU and Michigan getting a big bump from WSJ, but they were close enough with the rest of the schools that I was pretty comfortable with them. Plus, it was the only one I could find that listed ALL of the B1G schools. Some may question this, but it's a good barometer of fandom - the ability to generate revenues and donations.
It was a pretty straightforward comparison by percentage - I basically took the median of each category, calculated the teams percentage of the median, and took the average percentage of the 5 categories for each team. So basically, if you are 100% you are the average B1G team. I could have gotten a little trickier comparing the stats for some of you statistic freaks, but at first glance it seemed as if the results were not going to change much if I drilled down more. There is a lot of data here.
Even considering some things that I would consider bumps in ratings - very successful seasons in 2014 (tOSU, Michigan State, Minnesota), entry into a new conference (Rutgers, Maryland) and some minuses like really poor seasons (Michigan), adverse revenue impact/sanctions (PSU) - the conference really broke down into 3 tiers - pretty much what you would expect:
tOSU - 207%
PSU - 161%
Nebraska - 155%
Michigan - 150%
The four you would expect, with the most history and tradition in the B1G. tOSU at the head of the class with the most recent success, but if any of the four went on a similar run they would move to the head. tOSU with huge bumps from TV viewers and the WSJ valuation which was a little out of line with what you would expect from revenues.
Michigan State - 122%
Iowa - 100%
Wisconsin - 96%
Again, the next 3 you would expect. MSU with a bump given their recent success - huge viewership last year. Iowa may surprise, but they have been a very succesful team over a number of years and have built a very good foundation. Still a pretty monumental task for any of these to move into the top tier, it would probably take years more success for MSU to do this. Building a fan base doesn't happen overnight.
Minnesota - 74%
Rutgers - 60%
Maryland - 60%
Purdue - 58%
Indiana - 54%
Northwestern - 51%
Illinois - 51%
Minnesota with a very successful season last year bumps them to the top and they probably would be at the head of this class anyway most years - they generate a surprising amount of revenue. The rest of the group pretty similar in comparison to the league as a whole although Northwestern and Illinois stand out as the worst. Again, all these programs are years of success away from generating the fanbase of those in the next tier.
Overall, the B1G has four of the top fanbases in all of college football in tOSU, Michigan, Nebraska & PSU. Beyond that there are 3 programs who have built rather large and loyal followings over the years in MSU, Wisconsin and Iowa. The top half of the conference is pretty much set. The bottom of the conference probably varies with 5 squads probably vying to be 8th on a yearly basis in terms of fanbase (Minnesota, RU, Maryland, Purdue & Indiana) with Minnesota currently showing the best because of recent success. Illinois & Northwestern trail the pack.
Obviously, there are many ways to look at these statistics and if there is another category out there that makes sense I would be happy to include it. One that came to mind to measure fandom was merchandising, but these statistics are pretty much impossible to get and measures basketball also, and this is just a look at football. As for RU's standing in each individual category
Stadium Capacity - 52,454/73% (B1G avg 71,714)
Attendance/Capacity - 96.5%/107% (B1G avg 90.5%)
TV Viewers - 1.26 million/54% (B1G avg 2.35)
Spring Game - 11,500/50% (B1G avg 23,055)
Program Value - 62,740,000/17% (B1G avg 376,621)
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