I think you're giving the average college offense too much credit. Also we tend to get blitzed early which skews perception. If you want to say that teams eased off the throttle and that makes our numbers look better... that is possible.
GAME 15 INDIANA: Hoosier Soup for the Soul
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Say what? If you really believe than then what about the other end of the spectrum.
We scored 59 points against Stonehill. Didn’t break 70 against Boston U or Bryant either. Meanwhile last year, we broke 70 against every midmajor we played except Temple (which is closer to Princeton honestly than to any of the other midmajors). We broke 70 against UMass Lowell too and they are better than this year’s cupcakes too.
More accurately, what is our defensive efficiency versus pulse teams, compared to everyone else the pulse teams played.
I think it’s the rebounding that holds it back. The D has otherwise been very solid. We give up killer second chances.
RU84, this is going to blow your mind here, but people have quantified the impact of schedule differences. That's where the "adjusted" part of "adjusted offensive officiency" comes from.
Princeton vs. top 150 teams: 1.14 points per possession
Princeton vs. Rutgers: 1.10
Illinois vs. top 100 teams: 1.16
Illinois vs. Rutgers: 1.09
Wake Forest vs. top 100 teams: 1.10
Wake Forest vs. Rutgers: 1.15
Seton Hall vs. top 100 teams: 0.98
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers: .097
Mississippi State vs. top 100 teams: 1.06
Mississippi State vs. Rutgers: 1.03
Ohio State vs. top 100 teams: 1.11
Ohio State vs. Rutgers: 1.07
Iowa vs. top 100 teams: 1.04
Iowa vs. Rutgers: 1.09
Indiana vs. top 100 teams: 0.97
Indiana vs. Rutgers: 0.76
We've outperformed against everyone except Wake Forest and Iowa (two road games, not surprisingly).
First off, fluox is right that this is already accounted for in the adjusted efficiency stats.
Second, it's not that different. The bottom isn't quite as bad, but the top isn't quite as good.
Last year's first 15 games, bart rankings (bolded <50 and >250 teams)
7, 27, 31, 35, 45, 58, 85, 105, 120, 222, 289, 335, 338, 340, 344
This year's first 15 games, bart rankings (bolded <50 and >250 teams)
11, 20, 28, 57, 60, 62, 85, 99, 175, 176, 221, 250, 270, 345, 351
D against MSU was very good.
D against SHU was very good. Can’t just say they merely missed shots.
D second half OSU stellar.
MSU scored more against Tennessee than they did against RU.
Princeton averages 79 per game. 68 against RU.
Illinois averages 83 per game. With their best player on the team only scored 76 against RU.
Wake averages 81 per game. 76 against us.
Indiana averages 74 per game. 57 against us.
SHU averages 73 per game. 63 against us.
Plus with our offense so awful it’s hard to set up any kind of press or to switch defenses.
Stats don’t lie. It’s okay to admit we have an elite defense. We could also not be as good defensively as in past years and still be elite.
However to be fair you must also acknowledge our defense does not do our offense any favors. So we might actually be playing better D.
It is okay to acknowledge that RU is an elite defensive team.
Ken Pom agrees.
D against SHU was very good. Can’t just say they merely missed shots.
D second half OSU stellar.
MSU scored more against Tennessee than they did against RU.
Princeton averages 79 per game. 68 against RU.
Illinois averages 83 per game. With their best player on the team only scored 76 against RU.
Wake averages 81 per game. 76 against us.
Indiana averages 74 per game. 57 against us.
SHU averages 73 per game. 63 against us.
Plus with our offense so awful it’s hard to set up any kind of press or to switch defenses.
Stats don’t lie. It’s okay to admit we have an elite defense. We could also not be as good defensively as in past years and still be elite.
However to be fair you must also acknowledge our defense does not do our offense any favors. So we might actually be playing better D.
It is okay to acknowledge that RU is an elite defensive team.
Ken Pom agrees.
Per bart, our first 15 games, sorted by AdjD
74.6 - St. Peter's
76.8 - Indiana
79.6 - Boston U
83.2 - Georgetown
87.3 - Bryant
87.4 - SHU
93.2 - Stonehill
93.8 - Howard
94.9 - Miss St
96.2 - LIU
96.3 - Princeton
97.0 - OSU
97.2 - Illinois
101.0 - Iowa
102.6 - Wake
Last year's first 15, sorted by AdjD:
60.7 - Columbia
70.3 - Indiana
71.3 - Rider
74.3 - SHU
75.8 - Maryland
78.9 - Bucknell
79.9 - Sacred Heart
80.4 - Wake
81.3 - Coppin
86.0 - UMass
87.9 - Purdue
88.1 - Miami
88.3 - CCSU
94.4 - OSU
99.4 - Temple
Our defense has been good, but last year's was much better in the early going until Mag went down.
kcg, this is good stuff, thank you for doing it.
Even more accurate would be to account for home/away differential. I notice that all the top defensive teams defend better at home (in the neighborhood of .75) versus away from home (around 1.00) which I found here:
NCAA Basketball Stats - NCAA BB Team Defensive Efficiency | TeamRankings.com
NCAA Basketball defensive efficiency, by team.
www.teamrankings.com
So for example, how did we fare against Wake Forest versus everyone else who played them at Wake Forest?
PS: We played 6 out of 7 “teams with a pulse” away from the RAC (all Quad1 games), which would naturally affect our defensive efficiency in those games.
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Playing at home is a big advantage in defensive efficiency.
Last year 12 of our first 15 were at the RAC, and Mag played in all 15 games.
This year only 10 of our first 15 were at the RAC, and Mag has only played in 7 of the 15.
Now you have no nuance or depth to your analysis. Trying to just cite a stat and not evaluate everything you see is lazy analysis. I sit third row center court every home game and go to games at Prudential and MSG and I see things up close that might be missed on TV. The stuff that Caleb did that never showed up on a stat sheet could only be seen if you are at the arena watching all the moving parts. To appreciate the size and length of our team over the years , watching them from up close gives you the best perspective.
You want to argue we are still a good defensive team and we are most times but don’t argue elite or total shut down defense because that is not what we are playing this year.
That doesn't explain our Home AdjD vs. LIU, Howard, and Stonehil being worse than all but one team we faced last year.
And yes, we had Mag for all of those games last year... but we were missing McConnell for the first 5 games and Mulcahy for 4 games, too (and both of them were out together in 2 games).
It's all tiny sample sizes - but so far this year, we haven't been as good as we were last year - which both the eye test and numbers support. Really hoping it clicks for this group soon.
And you’d be wrong. Don’t lecture anybody on lazy analysis. Depth or analysis? Mind blown I’ve probably watched more RU games than your smugness. I too sit center court every home court and go the games at the PRU and MSG. In fact with college I am approaching being a season ticket holder for 40 years. Having watched up close, although we aren’t a great rebounding team, Cliff is as an intimidating presence on defense as any player in the country. Very much Hinson like on D. You can argue he’s not elite on D but third in the country in blocked shot plus amount of shots altered suggests he is indeed elite. I’ve seen many quick players at RU, Worthy, Jacob Young, Mack and Darius. Simpson is in that elite speed and steals category. You can argue he’s not but you’d be wrong. Mag is one of the best defensive players we have ever had. Some on this board think he was was even better than Caleb. So to say he isn’t elite, I think you’re wrong. JMike has shown toughness and a nose for rebounds. B1G announcers has noted his in your chest D. I think Hyatt is underrated defensively and quietly had a very nice defensive game against Indy. There is elite defensive talent on this team.
Our offense has been horrendous. The only reason we were even in games like MSU was because elite D. All astute hoops fans know that a good offense helps D. Our D has had no help, making our D played this year even that much better.
SHU had their worse game of the year against RU. You don’t think elite defense had anything to do with it? Cliff was so in their heads. Indiana had their worst game of the year against us. You don’t think our elite D had anything to do with it.
Miss State scores more against the gold standard bearer of defense, Tennessee(and Houston) and you shrug it off. That’s some brilliant depth!! Who is the lazy analyst?
Ken Pom stats don’t lie. You can be in denial but we have been elite defensively. It’s what keeps us in games. It’s certainly not our offense. And the comparing years is silly. We can be elite on defense two years in a row. We have been on D for many years in a row.
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No doubt, a bit conveniently this cuts off before the Iowa game, but us, Houston and Tennessee had absolutely historic defenses at this point last year
Just because not as good last year doesn’t mean we aren’t elite this year. I’ll tell you that I do know offensively we are a helluva lot worst this year meaning our reliance on our defense this year is far more important. Elite both years.
Ken Pom proves we are still elite.
Iowa was the 16th game last year, and we've only played 15 so far this year. We had an AdjD of 99.6 last year vs. Iowa at home and 101.9 on the road a bit later in the season.
Last year we had an AdjD of 91.0 for the entire season, including the B1G games after Mag went out. So far this year we're at 92.0
There's a MUCH bigger gap between this season's offense and last year, than there is a gap between this season's defense and last year.
Smugness. You are full of it and get a new set of glasses. You trying to compare Hinson to Cliff is fair but Hinson was elite shot blocking without always leaving his position. You trying to put Simpson and Derek in a conversation about elite defense , man that is too rich for me.
There might not be a better defensive player than Caleb ever on the banks again. Mag before he was hurt was especially elite at the head of the press and when doubling with Cliff the opposing center like what they did to TJD. We do not have that Mag yet this year. We can end this discussion because you and I have different definitions of elite which is fine because that is where we disagree
well in our last 3 I believe we are not in the top 25 defensive efficiency teams
2nd Half against OSU was elite.
Most RU games against Iowa have not been good any year.
Indiana averages 74 points per game.
They scored 57 against us.
All the naysayers have to take it out on Ken Pom.
No sound argument has been put forth.
And our Offense is significantly worst this year.
Most RU games against Iowa have not been good any year.
Indiana averages 74 points per game.
They scored 57 against us.
All the naysayers have to take it out on Ken Pom.
No sound argument has been put forth.
And our Offense is significantly worst this year.
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You have to account for home versus away and also the opponent. We played 1 at home and 2 on the road.
Our last game, at home against Indiana we had the best defensive efficiency in the nation at .736.
Our previous two games were on the road against the #30 team (Iowa) and the #42 team (OSU) in offensive efficiency.
We look very good on defense at times, but we don't sustain it as consistently as we did last season
Williams has seemed to solve the big guard bully problem and the rebounding has made a massive improvement. A lot of new players as well so the defense hopefully will continue to improve
Williams has seemed to solve the big guard bully problem and the rebounding has made a massive improvement. A lot of new players as well so the defense hopefully will continue to improve
Correct. And this year we’re missing McConnell and Mulcahy for all 15 games so far. 😉
At this point last year we had an adj DE of 83.2 per Bart and we were #3 in defense and #13 overall.. I think people are just spoiled lol
If we had that adj DE currently we would have the #2 defense on Bart. JUST below Houston and way ahead of what would be #3 Arizona at 90.3
If we had that adj DE currently we would have the #2 defense on Bart. JUST below Houston and way ahead of what would be #3 Arizona at 90.3
So both Ken Pom and BART have us in Top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency.
That fellow RU fans is elite! Or should I say, ELITE?
Just hoping it stays there, and it's not like having a great passing defense because we've played Army and Navy.
Probably right. We may never see a team as good defensively at Rutgers ever again
