GAME 15 INDIANA: Hoosier Soup for the Soul

[mildone]

Some reasons to be positive...

- Rutgers is getting back to it's identity of playing hard
- Rebounding has turned around drastically
- Cliff rebounding and blocking shots
- Williams giving size strength toughness etc
- Davis energy and spark
- Mag doing a bit of everything
- Team getting healthier
- Rotation improved with Noah and Gavin playing less

If we gave Derek's minutes to Gavin last night we probably lose. I don't want to give up on Gavin but we can't sacrifice the season. He needs to work through this stuff in practice.

I think Simpson is contributing a lot more than some, in this thread, apparently think. Yes, he's missing layups and 3 pointers. And he has defensive lapses.

But he's getting better and better at finding and making those mid-range jumpers. And his defense is improving by leaps and bounds. Of everyone on this team, he's the closest to showing the type of quietly disruptive defensive play we had from Caleb. Not nearly as good, of course. But still, the closest of any current player. And it's helping us win games by forcing turnovers.

Gavin's shooting problem is entirely in Gavin's head. He's almost entirely inwardly focused right now due to lack of confidence.

I'd be doing exactly what Pike's doing with GG. Find ways to inject him into the game and, when possible, do so for longer stretches (like at the end of games that are out of reach, one way or another). And give him lots of positive support and lots of encouragement. Because the only way GG gets his mojo back is to start hitting shots in games with some consistency. And giving him crap or benching him for entire games will have the opposite of the desired effect.

IMO, GG has huge upside. Pike just needs to get GG's head right; unlock the potential. I think he will.

 

[kcg88]

Edit: nevermind

 

[goru7]

Agree to disagree. I think over emphasizing JMikes contribution and under estimating Simpsons. Simpson is a true Sophomore and last year as a true freshman basically took over and won the Indiana game and one of the PSU games.

Simpson is basically playing point guard and shooting guard and he’s not getting much love.

It’s the negativity to Simpson I find perplexing.

Simpson literally won the Stonehill game for us. His all around numbers were great. He gets ripped for poor shooting for a team in which nobody shoots well. Carino sadly as it pains me was right.

OSU numbers were very impressive. Great all around game. Crickets.

Even last night with a bad shooting he made almost half court shot that basically won the game. Simpson still managed 10 points and his foul shooting saved the game at the end. Crickets. BAC raves about a random Davis three. There was no more important shot than Simpson’s at the half Luck or not. Even getting to the point to take that shot was impressive.

Davis’ foul shooting is the worst on the team. It’s a problem. Simpson will probably be the best. He stymied any comeback with nice 5-7 shooting from the line and that wasn’t even his best effort.

Davis 4-9 isn’t all that great when the missed shots are layups. Missing three games and then playing 21 minutes with no assists and four turnovers is a problem. Shooting 50% from the line is a problem. He hasn’t improved on the line.

Simpson shoots 2-13 and gets ripped. Simpson also gets fair share of steals and rebounds and even last night added three assists. His complete games are overlooked.

But back to back games in which Davis shoots 4-12 and then no assists and four turnovers in 21 minutes means he’s improving? What am I missing?

Isn’t Davis also a high volume shooter too. 9 shots in 21 minutes? 4-12 against Iowa? He almost lead the team in shots taken. So can live with Simpson for shots taken seems like subtle criticism but Davis shooting at similar rate is perfectly fine?

I don’t like the double standards. Don’t think Simpson getting enough credit. He’s only a sophomore. Can’t teach speed.

You are not being rational or you fail to believe what you see. Derek has been out of control in almost every game except for Ohio State. He sucked incredibly bad against Stonehill , a team that should have been dominated , and he hit the game winning 3 which is about the only good thing he did in 30 minutes per game.
He was terrible last night and decided to go to the rim 4 times and get swatted and not 1 time did he consider that the guy who swatted his shot left Cliff for a slam on an easy pass. Derek has been putrid at running PNR and lobbing it to Cliff or passing to other teammates in the corner , at the 3 point line or anyone occasionally cutting as he makes his mind up to shoot and will not pass.
I was one of his biggest defenders in the early season arguing the 2 vs. 3 debate with the data nerds saying Derek can get and make his 2 point jumper from 10-15 feet often enough for 12-16 points a game along with his foul shooting , which we need despearately. But the reality now is 2-13 , 3-14 , 1-10 , plus a total dericliction of duty of a guard in failing to get the ball to his teammates to make them better or to get them to score. .
Your trying to compare JMike who has been steady , but also sometimes drives recklessly , but last night made a great move , made a jump stop , let the defender fly by , then hit a sweet bank shot . The time Derek does that will be his first. Both guards have to pass much much better and stop the excessive dribbling and get the other 4 players on the court with them engaged by passing them the ball . Your trying to compare is useless when you see terrible play from Derek for the minutes he is out there

 

[PhillyRU]

Median pace and high efficiency maximize tournament success, so we did need to get faster with the talent coming in next year, but faster ≠ better — the opposite honestly in many cases.

 

[Degaz-RU]

This thread is something to behold. Multiple posters proving THROUGH OBJECTIVE STATS that Rutgers' offense is worse this year than last year, but Hawk just keeps insisting that we're better because (1) we play at a faster pace (a notion refuted by the fact-based stat guys); and (2) we get to the free throw line more this year because our quicker guards are forcing the action and getting fouled more... all apparently to the tune of a whopping total of 22 more foul shots over 15 games -- so, like, 1.5 more FTs per game.

I mean, holy cow.

If there's anybody else who has watched this team who thinks our offense is better this year than last year, please raise your hand.

 

[PhillyRU]

This thread is something to behold. Multiple posters proving THROUGH OBJECTIVE STATS that Rutgers' offense is worse this year than last year, but Hawk just keeps insisting that we're better because (1) we play at a faster pace (a notion refuted by the fact-based stat guys); and (2) we get to the free throw line more this year because our quicker guards are forcing the action and getting fouled more... all apparently to the tune of a whopping total of 22 more foul shots over 15 games -- so, like, 1.5 more FTs per game.

I mean, holy cow.

If there's anybody else who has watched this team who thinks our offense is better this year than last year, please raise your hand.

In fairness, we are playing much faster (33rd fastest adj. possession length on O) but otherwise yes this the worse offensive team since the early Pike years.

 

[RUChoppin]

This thread is something to behold. Multiple posters proving THROUGH OBJECTIVE STATS that Rutgers' offense is worse this year than last year, but Hawk just keeps insisting that we're better because (1) we play at a faster pace (a notion refuted by the fact-based stat guys); and (2) we get to the free throw line more this year because our quicker guards are forcing the action and getting fouled more... all apparently to the tune of a whopping total of 22 more foul shots over 15 games -- so, like, 1.5 more FTs per game.

I mean, holy cow.

If there's anybody else who has watched this team who thinks our offense is better this year than last year, please raise your hand.

22 made FTs over 15 games, but with the increased pace we're sending our opponents to the line more often too.... For 26 additional made free throws over 15 games versus last year.

 

[Degaz-RU]

Agree to disagree. I think over emphasizing JMikes contribution and under estimating Simpsons. Simpson is a true Sophomore and last year as a true freshman basically took over and won the Indiana game and one of the PSU games.

Simpson is basically playing point guard and shooting guard and he’s not getting much love.

It’s the negativity to Simpson I find perplexing.

Simpson literally won the Stonehill game for us. His all around numbers were great. He gets ripped for poor shooting for a team in which nobody shoots well. Carino sadly as it pains me was right.

OSU numbers were very impressive. Great all around game. Crickets.

Even last night with a bad shooting he made almost half court shot that basically won the game. Simpson still managed 10 points and his foul shooting saved the game at the end. Crickets. BAC raves about a random Davis three. There was no more important shot than Simpson’s at the half Luck or not. Even getting to the point to take that shot was impressive.

Davis’ foul shooting is the worst on the team. It’s a problem. Simpson will probably be the best. He stymied any comeback with nice 5-7 shooting from the line and that wasn’t even his best effort.

Davis 4-9 isn’t all that great when the missed shots are layups. Missing three games and then playing 21 minutes with no assists and four turnovers is a problem. Shooting 50% from the line is a problem. He hasn’t improved on the line.

Simpson shoots 2-13 and gets ripped. Simpson also gets fair share of steals and rebounds and even last night added three assists. His complete games are overlooked.

But back to back games in which Davis shoots 4-12 and then no assists and four turnovers in 21 minutes means he’s improving? What am I missing?

Isn’t Davis also a high volume shooter too. 9 shots in 21 minutes? 4-12 against Iowa? He almost lead the team in shots taken. So can live with Simpson for shots taken seems like subtle criticism but Davis shooting at similar rate is perfectly fine?

I don’t like the double standards. Don’t think Simpson getting enough credit. He’s only a sophomore. Can’t teach speed.

My point was not to under-emphasize Simpson's contributions, but really to point out that I think that, in advocating for Simpson, you were unfairly minimizing JMike's contributions.

I like Simpson. I just wish he could shoot at a higher percentage as a sophomore who has a year more experience than JMike. And I wish he would look to dish a bit more when he gets into the lane (which he does better than any of our guards). I think he has improved his on-ball defense this year too. I think your beef regarding Simpson is with other posters, not with me.

But I think your post above proves my point that you're going out of your way to bash JMike. You keep citing last night's game when he had 0 assists and 4 TOs, but you ignored my summary of his recent game play in which he was much better in Assist-to-TO ratio. Last night was an outlier for him in that regard, a single game sample size. And criticizing him for going 4-9, which is 44% (very good for a guard), and further ignoring the four recent non-injury games in which he has shot 42.5% (which is probably better than anyone on the team), makes it seem like you're putting him down in order to build up Simpson.

I think after the last two games just about everybody would agree that Austin Williams should start over Noah. I'm guessing there's a split on whether Simpson or JMike should be the other starter. But I don't think it matters as long as they both get 20-30 minutes (depending on matchups and in-game performance).

 

[Degaz-RU]

In fairness, we are playing much faster (33rd fastest adj. possession length on O) but otherwise yes this the worse offensive team since the early Pike years.

I didn't mean that the assertion that we were playing at a faster pace was refuted. We are obviously playing at a faster pace. I meant that the notion that our offense was "better" BECAUSE we play at a faster pace was refuted.

Otherwise stated, I think RUChoppin, KCG, and Fluoxetine have all proven that the mere fact that we play at a faster pace does not mean that our offense is better. It's clearly worse.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Kenpom offensive efficiency (AdjO) last season: #151 in the nation 106.3

Kenpom offensive efficienct (AdjO) this season: #251 in the nation 101.3

I have no idea what is in the Kenpom formula, and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. But a 100 position drop in the AdjO standings has to mean our offense is much worse to date than it was last season. That's before we even play the remaining 16 regular season B1G games, which on average will be much tougher competition than our non-conference slate was.

 

[mildone]

If there's anybody else who has watched this team who thinks our offense is better this year than last year, please raise your hand.

I think we're worse this season and it's kinda unarguable. But...

I think there's a way to get a lot better. Interior passing. I created a thread about it earlier today. It's a way that a bad shooting team (or a team in a massive shooting slump) can self-correct, to an extent.

So, the hopeful question is... If this team can start hitting more from the field, would it stop being such a bad offense? And, IMO, our guards this season are agile enough to break down the D and open up interior passing. Faster than last season.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Sorry. I just don’t get it. Everything Simpson has done and he is not a leader but Davis “looks” like a leader? Simpson took the proverbial bull by the horns at Ohio State and Stonehill and shot at buzzer at half time last nigh. Nobody else on Rutgers even gets that shot off in that time frame. He hit fouI shots to ice the game. Cool as a cucumber. I call that leadership and ideal by citing specific examples rather than saying he looks like a leader. I’m of the lead by example school. Guess just a difference of opinion I suppose. Go RU!

Banking a 3 as time expires in the 1st half means notbing

 

[G- RUnit]

Banking a 3 as time expires in the 1st half means notbing

I think just getting that shot off was impressive.
I think that shot clinched the win yesterday.

 

[Scangg]

I think just getting that shot off was impressive.
I think that shot clinched the win yesterday.

Listen it was a big shot and a great momentum boost going into the half but you keep posting over and over that it was one of the biggest shots of the season and won the game etc... that's over the top

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I think just getting that shot off was impressive.
I think that shot clinched the win yesterday.

OK

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Listen it was a big shot and a great momentum boost going into the half but you keep posting over and over that it was one of the biggest shots of the season and won the game etc... that's over the top

Imagine if he was a 49ers fan in the 80s after Dwight Clark made that catch.

 

[High Quality H2O]

Guard combo on/off numbers... some of these overlap because we do play three guards occasionally.

(vs. top 200 teams, no garbage time)

BASELINE:
Offense: .931 points per possession
Defense: .988 points per possession

Fernandes + Simpson (213 possessions)
Offense: .887 points per possession
Defense: 1.131 points per possession

Fernandes + Davis (180 possessions)
Offense: 1.022 points per possession
Defense: .928 points per possession

Fernandes + Williams (93 possessions)
Offense: .957 points per possession
Defense: 1.032 points per possession

Simpson + Davis (128 possessions)
Offense: .953 points per possession
Defense: .744 points per possession

Simpson + Williams (102 possessions)
Offense: .912 points per possession
Defense: 1.031 points per possession

Davis + Williams (107 possessions)
Offense: .981 points per possession
Defense: 1.035 points per possession

So...

Simpson + Davis 0.209
Fernandes + Davis 0.094
BASELINE -0.057
Davis + Williams -0.054
Fernandes + Williams -0.075
Simpson + Williams -0.119
Fernandes + Simpson -0.244

The three best combos involve JaMichael Davis. He's gotta play more.

 

[G- RUnit]

Banking a 3 as time expires in the 1st half means notbing

I think just getting that shot off was impressive.
I think that shot clinched the win yesterday.
I think it most certainly means something.

Imagine if he was a 49ers fan in the 80s after Dwight Clark made that catch.

It was a meaningless random three! ;-) I’m on board!

 

[RU84]

This thread is something to behold. Multiple posters proving THROUGH OBJECTIVE STATS that Rutgers' offense is worse this year than last year, but Hawk just keeps insisting that we're better because (1) we play at a faster pace (a notion refuted by the fact-based stat guys); and (2) we get to the free throw line more this year because our quicker guards are forcing the action and getting fouled more... all apparently to the tune of a whopping total of 22 more foul shots over 15 games -- so, like, 1.5 more FTs per game.

I mean, holy cow.

If there's anybody else who has watched this team who thinks our offense is better this year than last year, please raise your hand.

I’ll raise my hand. How can anyone say our offense was meaningfully better last year? The lowest point total we have so far this year is 57. Do you forget the 45 and 43 point horror shows vs SH and Michigan?
All these stats are the classic case of “not seeing the forest through the trees”. Who cares about how many assists we are or aren’t generating in a vacuum? Last I checked the bottom line is how many points you score and do you win games.
Do posters here have such a short memory? Down the stretch last year in Big 10 play from the Michigan state game at MSG on, RU went 4-7 and the offense struggled averaging only 60.8 PPG. The goal is to continue to improve so that down the stretch this season our offense has more production and hopefully a better record. In addition, high level recruits want to play in a faster paced offense with more freedom, not a grind it out half court offense with too much structure that limits freedom. We needed to adjust our offensive philosophy to what attracts a higher level of talent.

 

[bac2therac]

I’ll raise my hand. How can anyone say our offense was meaningfully better last year? The lowest point total we have so far this year is 57. Do you forget the 45 and 43 point horror shows vs SH and Michigan?
All these stats are the classic case of “not seeing the forest through the trees”. Who cares about how many assists we are or aren’t generating in a vacuum? Last I checked the bottom line is how many points you score and do you win games.
Do posters here have such a short memory? Down the stretch last year in Big 10 play from the Michigan state game at MSG on, RU went 4-7 and the offense struggled averaging only 60.8 PPG. The goal is to continue to improve so that down the stretch this season our offense has more production and hopefully a better record. In addition, high level recruits want to play in a faster paced offense with more freedom, not a grind it out half court offense with too much structure that limits freedom. We needed to adjust our offensive philosophy to what attracts a higher level of talent.

Um no Mag torpedoed alot

 

[fluoxetine]

I’ll raise my hand. How can anyone say our offense was meaningfully better last year? The lowest point total we have so far this year is 57. Do you forget the 45 and 43 point horror shows vs SH and Michigan?
All these stats are the classic case of “not seeing the forest through the trees”. Who cares about how many assists we are or aren’t generating in a vacuum? Last I checked the bottom line is how many points you score and do you win games.
Do posters here have such a short memory? Down the stretch last year in Big 10 play from the Michigan state game at MSG on, RU went 4-7 and the offense struggled averaging only 60.8 PPG. The goal is to continue to improve so that down the stretch this season our offense has more production and hopefully a better record. In addition, high level recruits want to play in a faster paced offense with more freedom, not a grind it out half court offense with too much structure that limits freedom. We needed to adjust our offensive philosophy to what attracts a higher level of talent.

you don’t have to reason your way into deciding which offense was better, you can just look at the adjusted efficiency. Last year was better.

 

[RUChoppin]

you don’t have to reason your way into deciding which offense was better, you can just look at the adjusted efficiency. Last year was better.

He's not trying to compare to last year, he's trying to compare to a subset of games at the very end of last year that bear next to no resemblance to the first 15 games of this season.

 

[fluoxetine]

He's not trying to compare to last year, he's trying to compare to a subset of games at the very end of last year that bear next to no resemblance to the first 15 games of this season.

Even if you look at the adjusted efficiency for the last 10 games of last year it’s much higher than this year (106 vs 98.8)

 

[PhillyRU]

Even if you look at the adjusted efficiency for the last 10 games of last year it’s much higher than this year (106 vs 98.8)

For all the talk about the offense in that stretch, during those 10 games we were better than our season average in Adj O, it was more so the defense going from historic to pretty good

 

[RU84]

Um no Mag torpedoed alot

Mag missed 8 games this season and last years version had leading scorer, and everyone’s favorite UConn Husky, Cam Spencer.

 

[RU84]

you don’t have to reason your way into deciding which offense was better, you can just look at the adjusted efficiency. Last year was better

“… can’t see the forest through the trees”

 

[fluoxetine]

“… can’t see the forest through the trees”

okay, fine, our offense is better this year despite, you know, scoring less efficiently. Good talk.

 

[fluoxetine]

“… can’t see the forest through the trees”

Also you are pointing out trees (performances from specific games) and I am pointing at the forest (the efficiency over the entire season) so unless you’re talking about yourself this post makes absolutely no sense.

 

[bac2therac]

Mag missed 8 games this season and last years version had leading scorer, and everyone’s favorite UConn Husky, Cam Spencer.

Mag missed games vs trash. Last year Mag missed games vs big 10

 

[RUChoppin]

Mag missed games vs trash. Last year Mag missed games vs big 10

He also missed our losses vs Princeton, Illinois, and Wake. Not saying we would have won those with him, but we were also out rebounded 118-82 in those games.

 

[bac2therac]

He also missed our losses vs Princeton, Illinois, and Wake. Not saying we would have won those with him, but we were also out rebounded 118-82 in those games.

Im just addressing that poster is downplaying the last 8-9 games of last seasons offensive output not being partially Mag driven

We have statistically evidence and eye test evidence yet somehow our offense is better without the leading scorer on the defending national champs who are likely to move to #1 next week

 

[RUChoppin]

...the leading scorer on the defending national champs who are likely to move to #1 next week

You mean their 5th option? lol

 

[BillyC80]

This team sucks offensively but is near elite defensively. So we will win on nights when we shoot the ball equal to, or even slightly worse than, our opponents.

Also, I see 5 changes, since the start of the season, that have us trending more positively:

1) Return (and return to form) of Mag
2) Emergence of (a healthy) Austin
3) Emergence of JMike
4) Rebounding improvement (see 1-3, above)
5) Reduced PT for Noah and Gavin (for now)

At this late stage of their careers, I don’t think we can expect anything new or different from Cliff or Hyatt, other than an occasional breakout game.

Regarding our two sophomores, Woolf will be steady but unremarkable in limited minutes, but Simpson to me is an X-factor.

Derek brings excellent defense and foul shooting, and a willingness to take the potential game-winner, from the field or at the FT line. He’s still early enough in his career that he can learn to take only high-percentage shots while looking to distribute more, versus plowing in among the trees hoping to get fouled.

All in all, I do see a path for this team to get to 18-13, 10-10 although there is very little margin for error.

 

[RU84]

Mag missed games vs trash. Last year Mag missed games vs big 10

1) I wouldn’t call Princeton, Wake and Illinois trash, 2) Mag’s first four games back Mag was ramping up offensively and averaged less than 7ppg, 3) you still are ignoring the fact last years team had Spencer down the stretch and 4) you’re still hanging you’re hat on efficiency when it’s all about production. This years team is still averaging a hair more PPG than last years team and hasn’t laid 43 and 45 point eggs that last years team did.

 

[Scangg]

4) you’re still hanging you’re hat on efficiency when it’s all about production. This years team is still averaging a hair more PPG than last years team

Hawk's burner account?

 

[MADHAT1]

Nice win

 

[RU84]

Hawk's burner account?

I guess it's surprising there can be multiple people that aren't buying into the fiction being spewed here that last years offensive production was superior based on stats other than PPG against similar competition like efficiency, assists, or whatever other arcane statistics that can be dug up. When the pillars fall on that argument then it's replaced by hypotheticals like "if we had Mag.." etc.

 

[RUChoppin]

I guess it's surprising there can be multiple people that aren't buying into the fiction being spewed here that last years offensive production was superior based on stats other than PPG against similar competition like efficiency, assists, or whatever other arcane statistics that can be dug up. When the pillars fall on that argument then it's replaced by hypotheticals like "if we had Mag.." etc.

It's not about buying in. PPG in a vacuum without considering pace or efficiency isn't especially meaningful.

If you score 80 points per game on 60 possessions, you have an insanely good offense. If you score 80 points per game on 100 possessions, you have a terrible offense. Simple as that.

Every extra possession in a game also gives an extra possession to your opponent. If they score more points in their possessions then you do on yours, you lose... whether you scored 65 or 85.

 

[bac2therac]

1) I wouldn’t call Princeton, Wake and Illinois trash, 2) Mag’s first four games back Mag was ramping up offensively and averaged less than 7ppg, 3) you still are ignoring the fact last years team had Spencer down the stretch and 4) you’re still hanging you’re hat on efficiency when it’s all about production. This years team is still averaging a hair more PPG than last years team and hasn’t laid 43 and 45 point eggs that last years team did.

yeah stonehill.....but rally around meaningless points late vs Iowa and a whole bunch of foul shots late vs Indiana

we havent even got into the MEAT of the schedule. i dont expect a 45 point egg to a big 10 team ...why? because our defense is several steps down....expect a 90-60 type loss, will that make you feel better that we scored 60

 

[bac2therac]

This team sucks offensively but is near elite defensively. So we will win on nights when we shoot the ball equal to, or even slightly worse than, our opponents.

Also, I see 5 changes, since the start of the season, that have us trending more positively:

1) Return (and return to form) of Mag
2) Emergence of (a healthy) Austin
3) Emergence of JMike
4) Rebounding improvement (see 1-3, above)
5) Reduced PT for Noah and Gavin (for now)

At this late stage of their careers, I don’t think we can expect anything new or different from Cliff or Hyatt, other than an occasional breakout game.

Regarding our two sophomores, Woolf will be steady but unremarkable in limited minutes, but Simpson to me is an X-factor.

Derek brings excellent defense and foul shooting, and a willingness to take the potential game-winner, from the field or at the FT line. He’s still early enough in his career that he can learn to take only high-percentage shots while looking to distribute more, versus plowing in among the trees hoping to get fouled.

All in all, I do see a path for this team to get to 18-13, 10-10 although there is very little margin for error.

sorry but this team IS NOT NEAR ELITE defensively..i just do not know how you can say that........the only time the defense impressed me was SHU, Indiana (who was quite awful in their play) and 2nd half of Ohio State. In other pulse games it simply was not there. Not vs Princeton, not vs Wake, not vs Miss, St, not vs Illinois, not vs Iowa. We give a plethora of wide open 3s night after night that didnt burn us vs sisters of the poor but against pulse teams it has