I think Williams can become the on court leader. He's tough and a vet who plays smart and under control. The leadership this season has been clearly lacking
Davis looks to be a future leader
GAME 15 INDIANA: Hoosier Soup for the Soul
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Davis looks to be a future leader
It is meaningless in a predictive sense but it still describes what happened. Replace “clutch” with “did a good thing in a high leverage situation” if you want to be a nerd like me.
If they had shot 10/15, it would have been a one possession difference late and the game would have had a completely different complexion. They also lost Xavier Johnson with 13 min left... and he's their 2nd best FT shooter, and tied for best in drawing fouls and getting to the line.
Galloway looked wrung out, too, because he had to take over primary point responsibilities after Johnson got tossed.
Granted I'll take it - but this game didn't exactly give me warm and fuzzy feelings.
Agree on both points. Austin looked completely healthy, maybe for the first time this season. He gave so much energy and looked like he was really having some fun out there. Very uplifting to the team and to us fans.
JMike just looks like he has something, just a winner’s attitude that says, “I don’t care if we’re not at our best yet, I’m gonna give you everything I’ve got.” He mostly takes good shots and I’m glad he doesn’t hesitate when he’s open (unlike Noah, for example).
A starting lineup of JMike, Austin, Hyatt, Mag, and Cliff would be ideal, imo.
So it is not an actual PPG difference from 1 year to the next, you're saying it is a style of play OR that the guards aren't forcing the passes to a player who has not shown any real indication of progress on the offensive end of the floor.....?? And because that player has not improved on his overall offensive game, we are now saying it is the guards fault this year, for not properly setting up alley-oop lob plays like last year??
Maybe we are or were better at passing or forcing those passes, because the guards were more experienced and used to playing a lot of basketball minutes together.....I can't argue with that, it logically makes sense.
What I am struggling to confirm is if you are saying we should not push the tempo to try and score more points, knowing we are changing a style towards that type of play........AND if you are saying our PPG this year is LOWER??
Maybe the PPG is actually the same or better than last year, because that is how you offset not having slower, bigger guards.
Maybe the PPG is actually better this year because "the offense is worse because they're not passing", but the roster is drawing more contact or fouls.....maybe they're shooting more FTs....
I am not locked into metrics as my only guide for basketball....it can help make some determinations, but all I saw last year was a team that didn't get to the line enough, to set up their defense.
I also see a team trying to make up for the loss of Caleb McConnell and it's using guards that are smaller, quicker and can be bullied by bigger guards we are against. I also sat courtside last night and saw how quickly Davis and Simpson created shot opportunities last year and took away opportunities, with their quickness vs Indiana (and Ohio State last week), without a lot of individual talent at the other spots OR players who are expanding their roles (Mag).
AND If RU is struggling as much as you claim they are AND they're averaging around the same PPG in confidence games this year vs last year, wouldn't logic tell you that RU is likely to get better this year, because the guards will gain more experience and confidence??
The point is to outscore opponents and win, not create efficiency metrics.
Tell me the difference in PPG against B1G opponents last year to this year......I'll wait......
All true, but a one possession game with us in the lead still means we were outplaying them despite their futility at the line.
And regarding Johnson, you have to take the bad with the good when it comes to him. He may be a good FT shooter and point guard, but he is a head case that screwed up and deserved to be tossed. Not our fault that Galloway was asked to do too much.
Maybe. I just look at that game and think that there aren't a lot of teams that we will beat shooting 23% from 3 and 32% overall. And there aren't many teams we will play that will shoot 27% from 3 against us. They had a putrid shooting night in every regard, played low energy, molested one of our players at center court and was ejected...and it was still a fairly close game.
Just to be clear, I'm not worried long term. All season this team has generated decent looks and shots, and just missed too many of them. They just aren't good enough shooters/scorers as a team to compete. That will change.
Guard combo on/off numbers... some of these overlap because we do play three guards occasionally.
(vs. top 200 teams, no garbage time)
BASELINE:
Offense: .931 points per possession
Defense: .988 points per possession
Fernandes + Simpson (213 possessions)
Offense: .887 points per possession
Defense: 1.131 points per possession
Fernandes + Davis (180 possessions)
Offense: 1.022 points per possession
Defense: .928 points per possession
Fernandes + Williams (93 possessions)
Offense: .957 points per possession
Defense: 1.032 points per possession
Simpson + Davis (128 possessions)
Offense: .953 points per possession
Defense: .744 points per possession
Simpson + Williams (102 possessions)
Offense: .912 points per possession
Defense: 1.031 points per possession
Davis + Williams (107 possessions)
Offense: .981 points per possession
Defense: 1.035 points per possession
So...
Simpson + Davis 0.209
Fernandes + Davis 0.094
BASELINE -0.057
Davis + Williams -0.054
Fernandes + Williams -0.075
Simpson + Williams -0.119
Fernandes + Simpson -0.244
The three best combos involve JaMichael Davis. He's gotta play more.
(vs. top 200 teams, no garbage time)
BASELINE:
Offense: .931 points per possession
Defense: .988 points per possession
Fernandes + Simpson (213 possessions)
Offense: .887 points per possession
Defense: 1.131 points per possession
Fernandes + Davis (180 possessions)
Offense: 1.022 points per possession
Defense: .928 points per possession
Fernandes + Williams (93 possessions)
Offense: .957 points per possession
Defense: 1.032 points per possession
Simpson + Davis (128 possessions)
Offense: .953 points per possession
Defense: .744 points per possession
Simpson + Williams (102 possessions)
Offense: .912 points per possession
Defense: 1.031 points per possession
Davis + Williams (107 possessions)
Offense: .981 points per possession
Defense: 1.035 points per possession
So...
Simpson + Davis 0.209
Fernandes + Davis 0.094
BASELINE -0.057
Davis + Williams -0.054
Fernandes + Williams -0.075
Simpson + Williams -0.119
Fernandes + Simpson -0.244
The three best combos involve JaMichael Davis. He's gotta play more.
This is what drives me nuts Degas and BAC.
Such a slap in the face to Derick who is playing his guts out.
Last year through 15 games: RU 71.9, Opp 54.9
This included Ranked Opponent games vs. #10 Indiana, @ #25 Ohio St, and @ #1 Purdue. We had 5 games at 80+ points.
This year through 15 games: RU 68.3, Opp 63.7
This includes Ranked Opponent games vs. #24 Illinois. We've had 2 games at 80+ points.
Please, tell me again how well our PPG compares so well to last year.
Just looking at the B1G games in that bunch:
Last year: (3-1) RU 64.5, Opp 57.3 (this included 3 Top 25 opponents, 2 on the road, and the loss was on an out-of-bounds shot at OSU)
This year: (1-3) RU 68.3, Opp 73.8 (this included 1 Top 25 opponent at home)
We played faster and had more possessions... but since we were less efficient than our opponent, their additional possessions resulted in more points.
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Like I said, I'll take it - but run this game with our same performance 10 times, and we probably lose 8 of them. It's not replicable to say the opponent is going to have a player ejected and shoot sub .300 from the FT line.
I don't go into future B1G matchups with a ton of optimism coming off this win.
Hawk....stop it with PPG. It isn't a metric that should be used. It's like comparing point from college to NBA (40 minutes vs 48 minutes PLUS a different shot clock)
Right, nothing has changed regarding our shooting woes. I was just responding to the idea that we should somehow feel bad about this win because Indy shot poorly from the FT line.
All 4 of our B1G games have had 70 or more possessions. Last year only the IOwa game had more than 70 possessions in a non OT game
I don't feel bad about the win because Indy shot poorly from the FT line. I'm happy for the win - I just don't think it translates to optimism for the rest of the season, because we played poorly overall and happened to be against a team that played even worse.
NJH,
In your way of looking at things the easiest way to improve offense is be bad on D and let them score faster
In your way of looking at things the easiest way to improve offense is be bad on D and let them score faster
Again, I am not interested in Q4 games last year or this year....the team is measured by Power 5 opponents or teams like Seton Hall.
We also play 65% of our season, against B1G competition, once you factor in B1G tournament games. I wouldn't count Central Connecticut State in November 2022 vs Indiana or Ohio State in 2024, but that's me.
B1G vs B1G year over year is the starting point.....I've already done the comparison, it is not there.
Conversely, I think Fernandes has been given a lot of rope and, in a +/- , output, and defensive sense, has been the fourth best guard. Sucks too because his FT shooting is huge late game.
Did you stop reading half way through that post?
Here, I'll quote the salient part for you:
"Just looking at the B1G games in that bunch:
Last year: (3-1) RU 64.5, Opp 57.3 (this included 3 Top 25 opponents, 2 on the road)
This year: (1-3) RU 68.3, Opp 73.8 (this included 1 Top 25 opponent at home)
We played faster and had more possessions... but since we were less efficient than our opponent, their additional possessions resulted in more points."
Which part of my post is a slap in the face to Derek? If it’s because I said, “imo” starting JMike and Austin would be ideal, that is my opinion and does not mean I don’t appreciate how hard Derek plays.
Playing faster but scoring on a lower percentage of your possessions is like the Drew Mehringer offense.
Sure, but that’s who we are. I’m not any more optimistic about the season than I was before. I just think, for this one night, we earned the win, despite how poorly Indy shot from the FT line (which is what I was responding to).
Did you see bad defense last night....??
Did you see bad defense in 2H vs Ohio State??
I'm curious on what the goal should be....should I prepare myself for this next year, if Dylan and Ace average 15PPG each and RU goes up by 5 to 7 PPG yet the metrics say we are worse???
It is the equivalent of saying I want a 3rd and 4th quality defensive tackle in football instead of finding a true #1 WR and TE who can run, block and catch passes in football on offense.
The goal has to be to expand on ways to defeat an opponent....you are locked in and married to trying and secure the #1 defense at the expense of scoring points and winning. There's a large number of CBB games on TV each and every night, beyond RU basketball......we need to compete nationally, not locally.
What's also fascinating are the same people who talk out of both sides of their mouth.....they're the 1st ones ready to say "The B1G hasn't won a National Title since 2000, or the league is down"...
And as soon as RU recruits real players to pick up the pace and expand how we play, so we can compete with others on a national scale, the same fans are kicking and screaming the whole way, crying about "how we are playing and pushing the tempo"....
What has JMike done that justifying him starting over Simpson?
Why is JMike and Austin ideal?
Why isn’t Simpson and Austin ideal?
Simpson is carrying this team and JMike is this great leader? Playing 21 minutes with no assists and four turnovers trends toward black hole rather than leadership. 4-12 ? When JMike shoots too much= Leadership.
Simpson shoots too much = Not leadership.
SMH.
Simpson carrying this team as a sophomore qualifies as leadership and has earned the starting role.
Last year .993 points per possession against Big 10 teams.
This year .928 points per possession against Big 10 teams.
To get to 70 points, last year's team needed 70.4 possessions. This year's team needs 75.4 possessions.
By the way we've also only played one good defense. Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana all have defenses rated 65th or worse. Wait until numbers from matchups against Purdue (#17), Wisconsin (#33), Maryland (#28), and Michigan State (#22) get worked into the data.
You win games by scoring more than your opponent. Having more/less possessions in a game really doesn't matter to winning - how many of those possessions you score on, and how many your opponent scores on, is all that matters.
Let's say we play faster and average 5 more possessions per game... that means our opponent also gets 5 more possessions per game. If we're less efficient scoring on our possessions, we lose - even if we scored more points than prior years.
I hope next year's team scores 80 per game.... as long as the opponent scores less than we do in each game. At the end of the day, I'd rather get 22 wins scoring 65/game than get 17 wins scoring 80 per game - it's not about scoring more than we have in previous years, it's about scoring more than our opponents.
I will end the topic by saying about a year ago, a team from Nebraska came into the RAC, after we defeated Michigan State in MSG......and that night, Nebraska, pretty much unheralded Nebraska, came into the RAC and shot the lights out of the gym......they pushed the tempo, pushed it every time down the floor.....and got to 80+ points....
If I look at games from that point forward and RU from that game forward, Nebraska has blown past RU in B1G games and overall scoring and performance......it shows up when they won more games in February and March last year.....and carried over to this year, after tweaking the roster even further.
Was the Nebraska game last December 2022, when they hosted Purdue a sign of progress, when they lost in OT.....??
Fast forward and when they're pushing the tempo, they got Edey in foul trouble and off they went and ran Purdue out of the gym.
Can they play a rock fight game at Nebraska?? Maybe....
But you have ZERO chance thinking RU is going to stop teams averaging 75 to 80PPG and pull them down into a game in the high 50s or 60s in scoring.
RU needs to evolve as a program, so Iowa and Nebraska games, don't feel helpless or games where we can't keep up.
Look at Nebraska from February 2023 to today and tell me what you see.....RU has to move forward in how we play and it won't mean we're sacrificing defense to do it (like Nebraska or Iowa).....there has to be a balance IMO......
If I look at games from that point forward and RU from that game forward, Nebraska has blown past RU in B1G games and overall scoring and performance......it shows up when they won more games in February and March last year.....and carried over to this year, after tweaking the roster even further.
Was the Nebraska game last December 2022, when they hosted Purdue a sign of progress, when they lost in OT.....??
Fast forward and when they're pushing the tempo, they got Edey in foul trouble and off they went and ran Purdue out of the gym.
Can they play a rock fight game at Nebraska?? Maybe....
But you have ZERO chance thinking RU is going to stop teams averaging 75 to 80PPG and pull them down into a game in the high 50s or 60s in scoring.
RU needs to evolve as a program, so Iowa and Nebraska games, don't feel helpless or games where we can't keep up.
Look at Nebraska from February 2023 to today and tell me what you see.....RU has to move forward in how we play and it won't mean we're sacrificing defense to do it (like Nebraska or Iowa).....there has to be a balance IMO......
I think the Pike model has been be elite or close to elite offensively and be average offensively.
I have been saying our best chance with this team is to win slow low scoring games. The game was anything but slow, but we defended and gave up only 57 points in 75 possessions. Yes we were helped by bad Indiana shooting, but i think we defended the 3 point line pretty good.
Scoring 66 points in 75 possessions is NOT good, especially considering we were enhanced by end game foulery.
Going to questions about next year....I am assuming (could be a bad assumption) we will struggles as a Pike defensive team. I'd think in the B1G the goal has to be somewhere north of 1.01 PPP in B1G play. Based on the pace we have played in the 1st 4 B1G games you are looking at 74.5.
This team will not be scoring 1.0 PPP in B1G play unless guard play is improved. If par is 1.00 we are -22 so far this B1G season or 5.5 PPG.
On defense we were +18 going in to the game and were -18 vs Indiana so we are now at 1.00 PPP defensively.
Man you know Nebraska got better once they started playing slower right? (AdjT is adjusted tempo)
That's not the only reason or even the main reason -- like us, it's the personnel -- but citing Nebraska doesn't really help your case. Virginia won a championship playing the 353rd tempo. If you need a Big Ten example Wisconsin is famously one of the slowest teams in the country.
This has been our MO for years, what do you mean we have zero chance doing this?
Just last year:
Indiana averaged 75 and we held them to 48.
Purdue averaged 73 and we held them to 64.
Michigan averaged 73 and we held them to 58.
OSU averaged 73 and we held them to 64 in OT (57 in regulation)
PSU averaged 72 and we held them to 45 and 56.
Not saying I don't want to score more points per game (I do), but the goal is to have more points than your opponent - which comes down to both offense and defense.
Countless metrics proving Hawk wrong. He just refuses to accept it. Even his obsession with PPG... then says only B1G play... well B1G shows we are a massive net negative this year in PPG against worse competition than our B1G schedule last year
I will say the B1G sample size right now is small. Maybe the offense turns it around, but it is significantly worse in basically every metric except FT attempts
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and jaMike skipped what should have been stats day.....game vs StoneHill
First of all, it’s my opinion. My opinion is based on what I’ve seen all season, not just last night.
In 2 1/2 more minutes per game, Simpson takes 3 more shots per game than JMike who’s hitting 34% versus Derek’s 33%. JMike has an Assist to Turnover ratio of 2.1 versus Derek’s 1.6. They both average 3 rebounds per game but JMike does it in fewer minutes. Derek is a slightly better shooter from the arc, and a far better shooter from the FT line.
Regarding leadership, I agreed with Scangg that JMike looks like a FUTURE leader.
So that’s it. My opinion that I’d like to see JMike start does not mean that Simpson shouldn’t play more minutes or be there in the end game. In fact I’d lean toward Simpson to finish games due to his excellence at the foul line.
Hawk trying to set a record for bad takes in a single thread
Except nobody had a stats day against Stonehill.
But Simpson hit a clutch three to save us an embarrassment for the ages. 🦗🦗🦗
Sorry. I just don’t get it. Everything Simpson has done and he is not a leader but Davis “looks” like a leader? Simpson took the proverbial bull by the horns at Ohio State and Stonehill and shot at buzzer at half time last nigh. Nobody else on Rutgers even gets that shot off in that time frame. He hit fouI shots to ice the game. Cool as a cucumber. I call that leadership and ideal by citing specific examples rather than saying he looks like a leader. I’m of the lead by example school. Guess just a difference of opinion I suppose. Go RU!
Is this supposed to be a parody or what? Do you not understand the concept of a possession (hint: if you play faster, all else equal, your PPG will go up but so will your opponent's)?
We've had an adjusted offensive efficiency of 95.8 vs conference opponents this season vs 104.8 last season. Protip, higher is better.
Like maintain some dignity and argue that while the offense hasn't performed so far, it will in the future because of factor x,y,z or whatever instead of this "the sky is green" thing you're currently doing. The sky is not green, full stop.
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