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How close/far are we from being a bubble team THIS YEAR

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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy

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it’s crazy to think about but if our team couldve simply not blown fordham, iowa doesnt hit a miracle shot at the buzzer and we actually showed up for the seton hall game we’re probably being talked about as a bubble team right now at 16-11 (7-10) with how weak the bubble is this year.

Yeah i know shoulda, coulda, woulda but it truly makes you think that is where we belong next year. Squarely on the bubble
 
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Yup but we've already probably been lucky overall. As it is, we're 6-1 in games decided by 4 or fewer points. That's unsustainable over a long haul (and, I should add, rather surprising given our free throw woes). For evidence of this, I submit Minnesota:



I'm doing a bit of data-hacking here (we're 1-3 in games decided by 5 or 6 points and 8-6 in games decided by 8 or fewer) but there's less variance in those than in games with tiny margins of victory.
 
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Agree with kcg88 that we've won more than our expected share of close games, but just for sake of argument.... if we had wins over Fordham, Iowa, and SHU (or Illinois), I think we'd at least be talked about as being on the bubble right now, though I don't know how serious that discussion would be. Would be a likely NIT team.

But as has been noted in other threads - those early losses (Fordham/SHU) are part of the fabric of this team, and there's no telling what the team's development/toughness might have been without them.
 
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kyk1827 said:
it’s crazy to think about but if our team couldve simply not blown fordham, iowa doesnt hit a miracle shot at the buzzer and we actually showed up for the seton hall game we’re probably being talked about as a bubble team right now at 16-11 (7-10) with how weak the bubble is this year.

Yeah i know shoulda, coulda, woulda but it truly makes you think that is where we belong next year. Squarely on the bubble
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Unfortunately as much as I and this starved fan base desires it , we are not close. We have lost to the top 6 teams in the Big 10 and are 0-7. Iowa , which should have been a win , likely would have been our only win against a team going to the NCAA and it was a home game. Ohio State is on the bubble but we won at home and lost on the road. Our best out of conference win is against Miami , which is not a bad team , but they are going no where. Our Fordham loss hurts , but not getting winnable games against Wisconsin on the road , Michigan at home, and Michigan State twice and Iowa would have doomed us.

That doesn’t take away with how we are presently competing and finally playing 40 minutes the last 4-5 games. I truly believe we have a good chance to win at Iowa , home against Penn State and away against Indiana to go into the tourney on a 4 game winning streak playing like a confident team. We as fans I think are no longer petrified about road games and frankly at halftime last week at Michigan State I thought we would win and at 11 minutes left in the game I thought we would still win. That is the same team that just took out Michigan at their place yesterday. That should explain how far we have come just in the last 10 games, maybe just the last 5 or so. If they keep playing 40 minutes hard , we are great shape this year and will springboard us into next year.
 
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If Ohio State gets back on track, that and Iowa would have been big wins....but Seton Hall would have another loss and is trending in the direction where we would be looking for them to win games to make that road gane look better.

Long way to go....sounds crazy with 3 games left but just have to win the next game first. If that happens, then depending on the final standings and NCAA bubble, RU could finish at .500, which would be more than enough for me.
 
kcg88 said:
Yup but we've already probably been lucky overall. As it is, we're 6-1 in games decided by 4 or fewer points. That's unsustainable over a long haul (and, I should add, rather surprising given our free throw woes). For evidence of this, I submit Minnesota:

View embedded media


I'm doing a bit of data-hacking here (we're 1-3 in games decided by 5 or 6 points and 8-6 in games decided by 8 or fewer) but there's less variance in those than in games with tiny margins of victory.
Click to expand...
but what if we hit foul shots? Then maybe those 4 point games are 8-10 point games.
 
kcg88 said:
Why stop there? What if we had Zion Williamson?

(I'm just busting your balls. We should all be very excited for a possible postseason next year.)
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haha i hear ya. But next season we should improve at the line with caleb playing more aggregate minutes being around an 80% free throw shooter, mulcahy despite not being a great 3-point shooter is a real good foul shooter. And have to imagine in the off-season a guy like montez will work on free throws to try to even improve from that 58.5% clip he's at now to even just 65%.
 
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we all know this board would be ape if we somehow won those 3 games, at Fordham, vs Iowa, and vs N'western...how different does 8-9 in B1G, best league in the country, and 16-11 overall look...NIT looks to be maybe at worst at that point...

shoe luckily won those close games early in the year...they are what we thought they are...a lot like RU when Douby was a junior here avg 25 ppg and we went to 2nd rd of NIT...they are a 6 seed in the NIT...Big East is on par with A-10, etc...it's a 2 bid league, maybe 3 with SJU...
 
scarletrat said:
we all know this board would be ape if we somehow won those 3 games, at Fordham, vs Iowa, and vs N'western...how different does 8-9 in B1G, best league in the country, and 16-11 overall look...NIT looks to be maybe at worst at that point...

shoe luckily won those close games early in the year...they are what we thought they are...a lot like RU when Douby was a junior here avg 25 ppg and we went to 2nd rd of NIT...they are a 6 seed in the NIT...Big East is on par with A-10, etc...it's a 2 bid league, maybe 3 with SJU...
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the little east doesn't deserve it but they're gonna get 3 teams in with a real possibility of 4 with how weak the bubble is
 
kcg88 said:
Yup but we've already probably been lucky overall. As it is, we're 6-1 in games decided by 4 or fewer points. That's unsustainable over a long haul (and, I should add, rather surprising given our free throw woes). For evidence of this, I submit Minnesota:

View embedded media


I'm doing a bit of data-hacking here (we're 1-3 in games decided by 5 or 6 points and 8-6 in games decided by 8 or fewer) but there's less variance in those than in games with tiny margins of victory.
Click to expand...
RUChoppin said:
Agree with kcg88 that we've won more than our expected share of close games, but just for sake of argument.... if we had wins over Fordham, Iowa, and SHU (or Illinois), I think we'd at least be talked about as being on the bubble right now, though I don't know how serious that discussion would be. Would be a likely NIT team.

But as has been noted in other threads - those early losses (Fordham/SHU) are part of the fabric of this team, and there's no telling what the team's development/toughness might have been without them.
Click to expand...

Luck comes into play once in a while, i.e. Iowa's impossible shot
Winning becomes a habit based on learned traits
Losing becomes a habit for the same reasons.
Winning close games is more of a habit than luck.
 
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kyk1827 said:
haha i hear ya. But next season we should improve at the line with caleb playing more aggregate minutes being around an 80% free throw shooter, mulcahy despite not being a great 3-point shooter is a real good foul shooter. And have to imagine in the off-season a guy like montez will work on free throws to try to even improve from that 58.5% clip he's at now to even just 65%.
Click to expand...
Also Young is a 72% FT shooter and should be able to get to the line and we lose Doorson who is really terrible at the line
 
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Our OOC schedule was way too weak. We would have had to have been lights out in the Big Ten. Probably would have needed a few wins over the likes of Michigan, Michigan St, Purdue
 
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We need to beat quality teams on the road....has yet to occur.

Wins against mediocre squads like NW; PSU and Miami are steps in right direction and for next year we need to beat squads like Minny; Wisky; Iowa; Ohio State on the road. Wins like the latter get the attention of the committee as well as beating top teams like Michigan; Sparty; Maryland;Purdue at home.
 
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Scarlet Shack said:
We are a year away ...I really think we have a shot next year
Click to expand...

The way they have played this year, I would say anything less than an NCAA tourney berth next year should be considered a disappointment. They need to take the next step!
 
kcg88 said:
Why stop there? What if we had Zion Williamson?

(I'm just busting your balls. We should all be very excited for a possible postseason next year.)
Click to expand...
We'd be whining about how only RU would have a freak injury like a guy blowing out his shoe 30 seconds into a huge game
 
Legit scenarios:

2020 - NIT
2021 - NCAA bubble team

Just keep working the recruiting trail Pike. We still need what Al McGuire use to call that "aircraft carrier" in the middle
 
colbert17 said:
Legit scenarios:

2020 - NIT
2021 - NCAA bubble team

Just keep working the recruiting trail Pike. We still need what Al McGuire use to call that "aircraft carrier" in the middle
Click to expand...
Such sadly low expectations. We must not be watching the same team. Raise the bar. 2 years to be a bubble team? That's such a sad goal. There's no reason to think we can't be a bubble caliber team next season
 
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Scangg said:
Such sadly low expectations. We must not be watching the same team. Raise the bar. 2 years to be a bubble team? That's such a sad goal. There's no reason to think we can't be a bubble caliber team next season
Click to expand...

Agreed. Hopefully I'm wrong. For the remainder of this year as I've said before, win 2 of the last 3 and win at least one game in the tournament to finish .500 for the year.
 
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Hmmmm a team that’s 13-14 right now?
giphy.gif
 
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Scangg said:
Such sadly low expectations. We must not be watching the same team. Raise the bar. 2 years to be a bubble team? That's such a sad goal. There's no reason to think we can't be a bubble caliber team next season
Click to expand...
Honestly these days an NIT team essentially is an NCAA bubble team with 5 or so games left in the year.
 
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My expectations for next year are to legitimately be in contention for the NIT, and have an outside shot at the NCAA bubble.

2020 recruiting needs to play out before I look any farther forward, specifically with regard to the frontcourt.
 
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bac2therac said:
Stop it
Click to expand...


Right now ...we have won 5 out of our last 10 games in the conferences after a 1-5 start

And of those five losses ...one was a buzzer beater, one was in overtime, one was a top five team to be on the road where we had a double digit lead, two were Michigan and Ohio state

Point is...you can make an argument that for the last ten games...we are playing like a legit solid NIT team and maybe not far from being a “bubble team”...or at least close to one for the last ten games.

Now...That certainly doesn’t make us a NIT team or a bubble team this year...that means doing it for 32-34 games until selection Sunday comes a ....bit it isn’t wild science to think that if we finish out the remainder of this season in similar form to the last ten games ...that if we sustained that level for the season that would have translated to a 10-10 /18-12 type season

So can we make this level next year for 32-35 games? Then .we should be NIt bound next hear

The question is can we take this current level over the last 10...and take it up a full notch..and sustain that improved level for 32-35 games?

If we can ...we dance next year

I think we do
 
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