If Rutgers goes 19-15, I think we get a bid.

[RidgewoodKnight13]

If Rutgers wins the next 3 they end the season on a 5 game win streak with two more Q1A wins.

Win two more in the b1g tourney and factor in a weak bubble, Harper not at full strength for 7 games and I think we go to Dayton.

 

[kt124]

unfortunately I still don’t think the committee cares about the conference tournament

 

[lion1983]

If Rutgers wins the next 3 they end the season on a 5 game win streak with two more Q1A wins.

Win two more in the b1g tourney and factor in a weak bubble, Harper not at full strength for 7 games and I think we go to Dayton.

Probably not even at 21-15 (4 wins in the Big 10 tourney, to the finals - if RU finishes 10th or 11th and needs 4 wins to get to the finals). Those 2 bad losses ... and 15 losses ... and Purdue now struggling ...

Though at 21-15, RU would have at least 7 Quad 1 wins and a 12-13 or 13-13 Quad 1 and Quad 2 record.

 

[mjjoyce51]

In my 10 minutes of research, no team has ever received an at large bid with 15 losses. I think only 3 teams have ever received one with 14 losses and they all had no bad losses and a brutal OOC schedule.

 

[bac2therac]

There were 3 schools who received at large bids with 15 losses...Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Florida. I think all in the 2015- 2019 time period. I don't recall their specific cases

I believe NET took over as the ranking system around 2019

 

[RUich]

Win the BIG tourney is the only path left open to them.
I have no idea if they have any interest in any other post season tournament.

 

[bac2therac]

Oklahoma State was 18-15 a couple years back and was in the last 4 out

 

[bac2therac]

Texas A&M was hot late and reached the SECTitle game and lost to finish 23-12 and 9-9 in Quad 1/2 games and a net about 30 spots better than a Rutgers team that made it

 

[T2Kplus20]

If Rutgers wins the next 3 they end the season on a 5 game win streak with two more Q1A wins.

Win two more in the b1g tourney and factor in a weak bubble, Harper not at full strength for 7 games and I think we go to Dayton.

Only way to get in is to win the B1G tourney. That's it, end of story.

 

[rutgershoopsinsider]

If Rutgers wins the next 3 they end the season on a 5 game win streak with two more Q1A wins.

Win two more in the b1g tourney and factor in a weak bubble, Harper not at full strength for 7 games and I think we go to Dayton.

Nope

Body of work more important than stringing a few B1G Tourney games together

Should've proved you belong early in the year when you lost to both Princeton and Kennesaw State as well as shitty losses at home to Iowa and Michigan. Yes, I said Michigan. They should've won that game.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Look it’s not going to happen. 45%+ three point shooting is not sustainable. At some point that’s going to normalize back to our 33% season average and the D isn’t showing tangible signs of drastic enough improvement to compensate. We’re still terrible at D which is not a likely recipe for consistent winning against good teams.

But if we actually did close out the regular season by winning 5 straight including a pair of road wins against #12 and #13 and then also proceeded to win 3+ games in the tournament for an 8 game win streak before falling - yeah, sure, I guess maybe we might be in the conversation. We start 4 frosh and have a 5th one coming on now in Bryce and there were also injuries to stars that might hypothetically be considered.

But so what? You guys do realize that it’s statistically more likely that we win 4 or 5 straight neutral games games for the auto-bid than it is for us to win 6 straight games including 2 road wins against ranked teams, 3 neutral games (at least one of which would be against a ranked team) only 1 home game. And to be clear, both scenerios are extremely low odds.

 

[rutgershoopsinsider]

Win the BIG tourney is the only path left open to them.
I have no idea if they have any interest in any other post season tournament.

College Crown probably I think you earn NIL money for the event so that's a good incentive

 

[brucelaw8]

Only way to get in is to win the B1G tourney. That's it, end of story.

If there is ever a year that we get the benefit it is this one.Ace & Dylan provide a different dimension.Win out & two in the tournament & we are in.
One at a time.Late wins over two top 12 teams will not be ignored
Really tough task ,but why not.
BTW Oregon is big time sleeper

 

[NJHoops17]

There were 3 schools who received at large bids with 15 losses...Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Florida. I think all in the 2015- 2019 time period. I don't recall their specific cases

I believe NET took over as the ranking system around 2019

Michigan also made it in 2021-2022 at 19-15 but yes its very rare

 

[newell138]

If there is ever a year that we get the benefit it is this one.Ace & Dylan provide a different dimension.Win out & two in the tournament & we are in.
One at a time.Late wins over two top 12 teams will not be ignored
Really tough task ,but why not.
BTW Oregon is big time sleeper

Nope. You’re just setting yourself up for disappointment if you think we are in any other way besides winning the BTT

 

[bac2therac]

if Rutgers is making the Big 10 finals and did all that work to get there...go out and win that game and get the AQ

 

[bac2therac]

Michigan also made it in 2021-2022 at 19-15 but yes its very rare

They were actually 17-14 but good catch. So here is an example of a bulky loss total with not a great record. I believe they lost to Indiana in their first B10 tourney game so they entered at 17-13. My contention is that they were selected BEFORE tourney play began....even at 17-14 they were an 11 seed I believe but not even in the first 4

Michigan was 5-9 in Q1 regular season and 8-12 in Q1/2 but 14-13 in Q1/2/3. A big thing with them was they played the #2 sos in the country and #11 OOC....thats the kind of thing that stands out.

Indiana would be in the first four. Indiana ended the regular season 18-12. They finished 2-1 in the B10 tourney to finish 20-13 yet I think they were already in like Michigan. Yet Indiana was very debatable

Ditto for Rutgers who got in at 18-13 and was 18-12 heading into the B10 tourney losing to Iowa in their first round game.

 

[RUJMM78]

The notion that Rutgers will win five straight games when the defense can't even stop opponents from making layups is truly wishful thinking.

 

[rutgersal]

19 wins puts us squarely on the bubble. Will depend on the other available schools. Just win, and we’ll worry about this when it’s time.

 

[PhillyRU]

Also, I mean the odds of just winning the final 3 games of the year is, funnily, 1.23 percent. If you give Rutgers (generously) a 50 percent chance at winning each of the four requisite conference tournament games to reach the championship, the combined odds of those two feats is .07 percent, a 1/~1500 chance.

Just winning the AQ is vastly more likely

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

If there is ever a year that we get the benefit it is this one.Ace & Dylan provide a different dimension.Win out & two in the tournament & we are in.
One at a time.Late wins over two top 12 teams will not be ignored
Really tough task ,but why not.
BTW Oregon is big time sleeper

Nah no way at two. It’d need to be 3 minimum and 20 wins to even get interesting. The opponents in the tournament wouldn’t much matter but there would def be a lot of buzz surrounding 8 straight wins to close out the season from a team that starts 4 frosh and now a 5th one coming on.

BAC is right that A&M got snubbed with something similar - I think it was 7 straight wins. That team won 22 D1 games but they also played 2 fewer conference games, a soft non-conference and drew an extremely weak unbalanced conf schedule en route to 9-9 (only played top 3 teams once - played worst two teams twice). Their only wins over teams in the field prior to the conf tournaments were @ Alabama (9 seed), Arkansas (6 seed home) and ND (neutral 11 seed). In the hypothetical situation proposed Rutgers would have a bigger and better collection of wins @ Purdue (4ish seed), @ Michigan (4ish seed), UCLA (5ish seed), Illinois (7ish seed), @ Nebraska (11ish seed). Granted, they’d have the Kennesaw and Princeton losses, but that’s not entirely fair to focus on comparatively as that A&M team didn’t play games like that away from home. They played mostly really bad cupcakes at home.

 

[toby83]

There were 3 schools who received at large bids with 15 losses...Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Florida. I think all in the 2015- 2019 time period. I don't recall their specific cases

Nudes. Lots of comittee nudes.

 

[Salvi's Headband]

We have a better chance of actually winning the Big Ten Tournament outright than we do of winning the next three, including on the road against two of the better teams in the conference, plus 3 more in the BTT.

 

[mjjoyce51]

They were actually 17-14 but good catch. So here is an example of a bulky loss total with not a great record. I believe they lost to Indiana in their first B10 tourney game so they entered at 17-13. My contention is that they were selected BEFORE tourney play began....even at 17-14 they were an 11 seed I believe but not even in the first 4

Michigan was 5-9 in Q1 regular season and 8-12 in Q1/2 but 14-13 in Q1/2/3. A big thing with them was they played the #2 sos in the country and #11 OOC....thats the kind of thing that stands out.

Indiana would be in the first four. Indiana ended the regular season 18-12. They finished 2-1 in the B10 tourney to finish 20-13 yet I think they were already in like Michigan. Yet Indiana was very debatable

Ditto for Rutgers who got in at 18-13 and was 18-12 heading into the B10 tourney losing to Iowa in their first round game.

Definitely some differences but similar enough I would say IF Rutgers wins out. Rutgers would have more Quad 1 wins and a better Q1-Q2 record but Michigan would have the better overall and OOC SOS, 4 Q1a wins compared to 2 (maybe 3 if UCLA finishes strong), and a 27 NET ranking compared to Rutgers probably being in the 50s(?). Just looking at resume's alone it's still Michigan but it shows that getting in with 17 wins isn't unprecedented if the committee really wants to get Rutgers in.

 

[ru-baby]

Long way to go but the Kenyon Martin precedent will come into play. Cincy I believe was near number one when Martin was out. Body of work thrown out because it was a different team--just like RU without Mag.

December losses will be cast aside if it appears this team is a far different team that has transformed. BUT a long way to go for that.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

19 wins puts us squarely on the bubble. Will depend on the other available schools. Just win, and we’ll worry about this when it’s time.

Only if it was because we got the first round bye. We’d need to be in the semi-final game to even get in the conversation. Not so much because of the wins - just would need the buzz and spotlight involved to have a real chance. We’d have zero chance at 19 if one of the wins was from the first day of the tournament.

 

[Plum Street]

It’s been 27 years since we got to a conference semifinal.
If we get to the BIG semis and play a close game and lose , this season ends about as good as we can hope right now . Considering, Pike is an awful conference tournament coach.

 

[mjjoyce51]

Nah no way at two. It’d need to be 3 minimum and 20 wins to even get interesting. The opponents in the tournament wouldn’t much matter but there would def be a lot of buzz surrounding 8 straight wins to close out the season from a team that starts 4 frosh and now a 5th one coming on.

BAC is right that A&M got snubbed with something similar - I think it was 7 straight wins. That team won 22 D1 games but they also played 2 fewer conference games, a soft non-conference and drew an extremely weak unbalanced conf schedule en route to 9-9 (only played top 3 teams once - played worst two teams twice). Their only wins over teams in the field prior to the conf tournaments were @ Alabama (9 seed), Arkansas (6 seed home) and ND (neutral 11 seed). In the hypothetical situation proposed Rutgers would have a bigger and better collection of wins @ Purdue (4ish seed), @ Michigan (4ish seed), UCLA (5ish seed), Illinois (7ish seed), @ Nebraska (11ish seed). Granted, they’d have the Kennesaw and Princeton losses, but that’s not entirely fair to focus on comparatively as that A&M team didn’t play games like that away from home. They played mostly really bad cupcakes at home.

That's the main thing. How would they view not only a team that has 4 freshman starters but returned only 17% of the total minutes played from the 2023-2024 team? Do they place less emphasis on the beginning of the year? We're only on year two of a completely different college landscape.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Not saying there is a chance for at large but I do like the idea of a 9 man rotation of Dylan, Ace, JWill, Grant, and Sommerville, with JMike, Acuff, Dortch and Martini off the bench. It looked very functional last night.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Not saying there is a chance for at large but I do like the idea of a 9 man rotation of Dylan, Ace, JWill, Grant, and Sommerville, with JMike, Acuff, Dortch and Martini off the bench. It looked very functional last night.

It helps when you shoot 45% from 3…

 

[RUGiddy777]

I’m more interested in what it would take to get the 9 seed and a bye - then win 4 straight. An at large is over with - we don’t deserve one

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

That's the main thing. How would they view not only a team that has 4 freshman starters but returned only 17% of the total minutes played from the 2023-2024 team? Do they place less emphasis on the beginning of the year? We're only on year two of a completely different college landscape.

I’m not sure how it would be accounted for, but again, our chances of going on a streak and pulling off the unthinkable with the autobid are better than the odds of this scenario anyway so that’s what I’m mostly hoping for.

The problem we have is that our selling point will be our tough schedule. We’re at KenPom 22 right now, so after the Purdue and Minny games we should be comfortably in the top 20. There are a collection of other teams ahead of us in SOS with less losses - WVU, OSU, Indiana, TCU, Arkansas etc.

 

[rutgershoopsinsider]

I’m more interested in what it would take to get the 9 seed and a bye - then win 4 straight. An at large is over with - we don’t deserve one

Agreed - Rutgers does NOT deserve an at-large bid

Only path to NCAAT is to win the B1G Tourney

Doesn't matter if they go on a streak and make it to the championship and lose

Body of work is what matters most not a winning streak this late in the year

I said earlier, losses to Kennesaw State, Princeton, Iowa, and mediocre wins against bad competition is what the NCAAT Committee will see

Also, let's not kid ourselves, Rutgers just beat two of the worst teams in the B1G in the past week. If you want to believe this team can go on a run they gotta steal a win at Michigan or Purdue to show they can be dangerous. They haven't put together more than a two-game winning streak against Big Ten competition this year.

Glad they beat Washington and USC, but let's also not forget the defense has been absolutely PUTRID. I believe last night's defensive performance in their win over USC was the 5th worst of the season.

 

[rufan19]

It would be amazing if we had some path to the big dance...,I just dont see it happening for us this year.
But as a casual fan i wouldn't be upset if somehow, we made the NIT and ended up having the same ticket lottery occur like it did a few years ago and some of us can get lucky with 100 level tickets for 300 level prices.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Agreed - Rutgers does NOT deserve an at-large bid

Only path to NCAAT is to win the B1G Tourney

Doesn't matter if they go on a streak and make it to the championship and lose

Body of work is what matters most not a winning streak this late in the year

I said earlier, losses to Kennesaw State, Princeton, Iowa, and mediocre wins against bad competition is what the NCAAT Committee will see

Also, let's not kid ourselves, Rutgers just beat two of the worst teams in the B1G in the past week. If you want to believe this team can go on a run they gotta steal a win at Michigan or Purdue to show they can be dangerous. They haven't put together more than a two-game winning streak against Big Ten competition this year.

Glad they beat Washington and USC, but let's also not forget the defense has been absolutely PUTRID. I believe last night's defensive performance in their win over USC was the 5th worst of the season.

Going 3-0 in the next 3 is a long shot beyond long shots so none of this discussion really much matters.

That said, I don’t care how little the conference tournament games matter for resume purposes. If we did what you suggested and finished 21-15 amongst one of the toughest schedules in the country. That’d be 6 games above 500 and a better winning percentage overall than the 19-14 teams.

We talk a lot about loss count, and not as much about win count because of all the gaudy mid-majors, but I’m curious how many 20+ win teams that played a top 20 overall SOS schedule have ever missed the tournament. My guess is not many - and 21+ probably none.

 

[RAC93]

The notion that Rutgers will win five straight games when the defense can't even stop opponents from making layups is truly wishful thinking.

It is pretty crazy that the layup line of a defense that we have, which has possibly gotten worse as the season has progressed (go figure that one out), is now going to help us rattle off 5 straight and then games in the conference tourney.

 

[Eagleton96]

I have no idea what the selection committee thinks. But college basketball is changing and I assume the selection committee's thinking, sooner or later, will change too. Given the turnover that is now standard in college, it makes sense to weight the end of the season higher. Probably means nothing for this year. But who knows.

 

[richthedentist]

Texas A&M was hot late and reached the SECTitle game and lost to finish 23-12 and 9-9 in Quad 1/2 games and a net about 30 spots better than a Rutgers team that made it

Bac is the tourney teams basically picked before the conference tournaments?

 

[Plum Street]

Bac is the tourney teams basically picked before the conference tournaments?

They have been recently

 

[bac2therac]

Also, I mean the odds of just winning the final 3 games of the year is, funnily, 1.23 percent. If you give Rutgers (generously) a 50 percent chance at winning each of the four requisite conference tournament games to reach the championship, the combined odds of those two feats is .07 percent, a 1/~1500 chance.

Just winning the AQ is vastly more likely

I don't know why some rutgers fans do this to themselves