KenPom Only Has Us Favored in 3 of Our Remaining 18 Big Ten Games

[KK1827]

With a projected big ten record of 7-13.

With our NET, Kenpom projections and eye test, the staff has their hands full and has gotta figure out alot of things fast.

I know some here are all hype after yesterday but we have to recognize SHU is abysmal. They were 197 in NET coming into yesterday and one of the worst offensive teams in America.

Finishing 7-13 in big ten play and below .500 on the season overall (KenPom projects 15-16) with this roster would be a failure of biblical proportions.

What must the coaching staff do to turn this around?

 

[dfr1966]

They must ignore kenpom and play the games.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

That need to build on the growth, and engage the stamina of the team. We are losing the fourth quarter

 

[Scangg]

With a projected big ten record of 7-13.

With our NET, Kenpom projections and eye test, the staff has their hands full and has gotta figure out alot of things fast.

I know some here are all hype after yesterday but we have to recognize SHU is abysmal. They were 197 in NET coming into yesterday and one of the worst offensive teams in America.

Finishing 7-13 in big ten play and below .500 on the season overall (KenPom projects 15-16) with this roster would be a failure of biblical proportions.

What must the coaching staff do to turn this around?

The team has one bad loss

 

[RUBlackout]

Who was hype with the win yesterday? Thankfully for Harper’s great shot but we played bad against a terrible team. That said rivalry games you have to throw everything out of the window but it was bad.

I think this team will look much different in January and similar to what we saw in the first half of PSU. The potential is there

 

[Knight Shift]

 

[KK1827]

The team has one bad loss

Not all wins/losses are created equal. Getting into rock fights vs awful teams and getting your doors blown off vs a pretty bad OSU team, whos game before us and after us they trailed by 40+ at times is concerning, no?

 

[letitrip2]

Not all wins/losses are created equal. Getting into rock fights vs awful teams and getting your doors blown off vs a pretty bad OSU team, whos game before us and after us they trailed by 40+ at times is concerning, no?

Very common to have rock fights in rivalry games.

 

[KK1827]

Very common to have rock fights in rivalry games.

I wouldnt consider st peters a rival personally. We were down with under 4 mins left in that game

 

[winfield102]

It seemed like we wanted it to be a rock fight against SHU. I didn't understand why we were so happy to slow it down against an offensively- challenged team.

 

[NickRU714]

Is there any numbers on how accurate KenPom is regarding predicting matchups?

Assuming it gets more accurate as the year progresses and more data points.
What about this early in the year?

 

[ru66]

We should ignore pseudo experts.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Is there any numbers on how accurate KenPom is regarding predicting matchups?

Assuming it gets more accurate as the year progresses and more data points.
What about this early in the year?

All ken pom and bart is doing is analyzing how much we score and give up per possession given the strength of opponent we play.

Early in the season there is predictive info baked in but as the season progressees the predicted info slowly goes away.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We should ignore pseudo experts.

Its a computer. Not someone predicting. It doesnt fancy as an expert

 

[fluoxetine]

Finishing 7-13 in big ten play and below .500 on the season overall (KenPom projects 15-16) with this roster would be a failure of biblical proportions.

What must the coaching staff do to turn this around?

The roster is the problem.

We need:
- Dylan to keep playing like one of the best players if not the best player in the country
- Ace to develop in the 2nd half of the season
- Jeremiah Williams to get it together
- improvement on defense

 

[ru66]

Its a computer. Not someone predicting. It doesnt fancy as an expert

I'm referring to the poster who started this bs.

 

[fluoxetine]

Not all wins/losses are created equal. Getting into rock fights vs awful teams and getting your doors blown off vs a pretty bad OSU team, whos game before us and after us they trailed by 40+ at times is concerning, no?

Outside of Kennesaw none of our games would particularly concern me on their own but it’s the ongoing pattern. There is a lot of reason for concern. That said, we’ve only played 11 games and only 5 against Q1/2 teams. It’s a small sample.

 

[fluoxetine]

Is there any numbers on how accurate KenPom is regarding predicting matchups?

Assuming it gets more accurate as the year progresses and more data points.
What about this early in the year?

I have some very detailed analysis on Bart (not Kenpom because I don’t have a subscription) because I was comparing it to something I made. I will see if I can dig it up.

 

[Salvi's Headband]

That need to build on the growth, and engage the stamina of the team. We are losing the fourth quarter

There are no quarters

 

[ru66]

And by the way anyone who puts absolute stock in statistics to predict the future.Ever hear--past experience is no indicator of future experience.

 

[fluoxetine]

And by the way anyone who puts absolute stock in statistics to predict the future.Ever hear--past experience is no indicator of future experience.

No I’ve never heard that. I’ve heard “past performance is no guarantee of future performance” but guarantee is very different from indicator.

 

[fluoxetine]

Is there any numbers on how accurate KenPom is regarding predicting matchups?

Assuming it gets more accurate as the year progresses and more data points.
What about this early in the year?

I have some very detailed analysis on Bart (not Kenpom because I don’t have a subscription) because I was comparing it to something I made. I will see if I can dig it up.

Okay this covers the 2014-15 through 2022-23 seasons and is for T-Rank (i.e. bartorvik.com) not Kenpom.

Average error by month game is played:
November 9.23
December 9.01
Janurary 8.75
February 8.65
March 8.55
April (tiny sample) 9.06

 

[RU848789]

Its a computer. Not someone predicting. It doesnt fancy as an expert

To be fair, any computer algorithm's accuracy depends on dozens of variables, many of which are not well defined early in a season, and the weightings of those variables, which are assigned by fallible humans. So it may not be biased like a human, but it's predictions are also not necessarily going to be that accurate.

 

[fluoxetine]

DISCLAIMER: Detailed math/stats/sample size discussions that seem to trigger some people.

---

Digging further into the concept of error here, there are two sources of error in each game:
(1) Error in measuring how good the teams actually are and
(2) Error from the variation in how well the teams play from game to game

The sample standard deviation of our net efficiency margin (where each game is one observation) has been 11.0.
The sample size is also coincidentally 11.

This means the standard error on the average as an estimator would be 11/SQRT(11) ~= 3.3

Which means the 95% confidence interval for our kenpom rating would be 3.76 - 16.7

If you hold the other teams constant, that means we are 95% confident to be between the #41 and #121 teams.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

To be fair, any computer algorithm's accuracy depends on dozens of variables, many of which are not well defined early in a season, and the weightings of those variables, which are assigned by fallible humans. So it may not be biased like a human, but it's predictions are also not necessarily going to be that accurate.

I don't think there are dozens of variables. Point per possession scored and point per possession allowed. The adjustment for opponent is based on how their opponent does with those 2 things and I would think opponent's opponent.

It analyzes other numbers, but the entire ranking is just those 2 numbers

 

[Loyal_2RU]

There are no quarters

Really, one quarter of 40 minutes is not 10?

 

[mildone]

Really, one quarter of 40 minutes is not 10?

To your point, it has seemed, at times, that perhaps the team isn’t as fit as some of our opponents. We’ve looked pretty worn out in the final 10 minutes of several games.

Perhaps some of that is a consequence of the relative youth of our team this season, at least with the starting lineup. The more years in the program, the more years of strength and conditioning.

It’s a theory anyway. No good way to prove it out.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Ace and Dylan are both playing too many minutes. They have never had to play both ends of the floor like this in their lives. Both had injuries earlier in the season that may contribute to them not being top shape.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

To your point, it has seemed, at times, that perhaps the team isn’t as fit as some of our opponents. We’ve looked pretty worn out in the final 10 minutes of several games.

Perhaps some of that is a consequence of the relative youth of our team this season, at least with the starting lineup. The more years in the program, the more years of strength and conditioning.

It’s a theory anyway. No good way to prove it out.

Yes that is exactly my point. These guys are putting out at a high level that is required to be sustained in ways that have not experienced and in younger bodies than their also superbly athletic competition.

I think that contributes to FT woes late, loss of leads, and several losses to date.

Add to that that Tyson Acuff needs a month of foot speed work, skipping rope, and the like to help with his recovery and we are not fully with our competition in terms of fitness.

 

[Mbash93]

Gotta take who OP is into effect, he always shows up to be negative.

That being said, we have not taken care of business through 11 games.

If you were to add about 5 points to every win we had this season and turn KSU to a win, we are a top 40 kenpom team.

Unfortunately that's not the case, but just trying to point out how quickly the math can change with stuff like this.

 

[scarletrat]

Bailey and esp Harper are better than advertised, and the supporting cast brought in has me wanting last years. Supporting cast has been brutal. That has to improve a lot.

 

[Mr Magoo]

Ace and Dylan are both playing too many minutes. They have never had to play both ends of the floor like this in their lives. Both had injuries earlier in the season that may contribute to them not being top shape.

We have absolutely no choice but to play them at least as much as we are. Any less, and we lose vs. ND, PSU, and SHU, and possibly even St. Peter’s, putting us at 4-7 or even 3-8.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We have absolutely no choice but to play them at least as much as we are. Any less, and we lose vs. ND, PSU, and SHU, and possibly even St. Peter’s, putting us at 4-7 or even 3-8.

We have a choice. Do they miss FTs down the stretch if they plyed less?

Pike saved his TO to use as rest. We sont want to have Dylan and Ace playing 20 minutes every 2nd half.

 

[Salvi's Headband]

We also haven't had a single genuinely easy win except for Wagner and maybe Merrimack. 40 minutes of max effort every game needed.

 

[Salvi's Headband]

One of the reasons I've always believed our NIT team from a couple years ago was our best team talent wise of the Pike era is because of the way we absolutely destroyed our mid major competition. We had 30 and 40 pt. wins against Rider, Columbia, Sacred Heart, Coppin, Bucknell...not to mention 25 pt win against Wake.

For some reason we can't blow out anyone anymore even inferior teams.

 

[goru7]

Not all wins/losses are created equal. Getting into rock fights vs awful teams and getting your doors blown off vs a pretty bad OSU team, whos game before us and after us they trailed by 40+ at times is concerning, no?

This is where you get called out for your convenient look at the losses and ignore the good performances. Ohio State had been playing well. They then lost Bradshaw their impact transfer center. They were beating a really good PITT team by 12 with 4 minutes left and blew it and got beat on a buzzer beater at home 91-90.
They then went on the road and Williard coached and Maryland played probably the best half of the year offensively and defensively and would not let them get into their offense and they got demolished in a true road game.
They then played Rutgers who put up their worst performance of the year. Despite that it is a 63-56 game with 7 minutes left and they miss a shot and commit 3 turnovers. Instead of capatalizing we continue our miserable game and commit turnovers on the next 4 possessions. So instead of making it a 1 possession game , with 5 minutes left , they went on a 10-0 run and won going away. But it wasn’t us getting our doors blown off like you said.
Then they go to Atlanta and a neutral site and got buried by probably the best team in the country in Auburn.
So that is the accurate portrayal of what happened to Ohio State. We lost on the road in our first conference game and they got buried on the road and at a neutral site by a good Maryland team and maybe a great Auburn team # 2 in the country.
Now Ohio State is not that good but we were putrid that day. Every game is different.
Funny you didn’t mention the toe to toe with a top 10 Alabama and a 20th ranked Texas A&M where we had a 9 point second half lead and the lead with 3 minutes to go. And you didn’t mention Penn State either , another very good team. We did just fine , won 1 of the 3 but should have won all 3.

So if you are going to shit on the team for their bad performances try to balance it with the really good performances.
Our team needs some consistency from everyone else not named Dylan and ACE. We get that and more Penn State first halves occur.

 

[bethlehemfan]

OP says us but he puts a lot of energy into trashing the bball program. It’s because he was weened on blue milk. He’s a tiny Smurf!!!

 

[soundcrib]

Someone needs to step up to be a reliable 3rd 10+ points scorer. Make free throws. Get our 3 point threats more involved. Play 5 out more and stop having the bigs clog the middle when Dylan or Ace have the ball on the wing. Improve weak side defense. Improve pick and roll defense. Never have Dylan and Ace sit at the same time. Steve needs to stop with the mind boggling substitutions and floor personnel.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Soundcrib. You bring up a very interesting and debateable topic…….

Assuming Dylan and Ace need to rest 4 minutes per half…….

Do you play 16 minutes with them both on the court and roll the disce for 4 OR spread it iut and have 12 minutes of Ace and Dylan together.

Yesterday 1st game he did it AND he has to put them back in earlier than he wanted.

Obviously it didnt work this game. I am still not convinced it isnt the wrong way to go

Also doesnt have to be all or none…..you can always go only 2 minutes together out sandwiched around a media TO and have. So 2 minutes of overlap which gives you 14 minutes of then together

 

[SirPerceval]

The roster is the problem.

We need:
- Dylan to keep playing like one of the best players if not the best player in the country
- Ace to develop in the 2nd half of the season
- Jeremiah Williams to get it together
- improvement on defense

Need to use our 3 pt shooters more effectively (Acuff and Hayes)