Football Kirk Herbstreit on Rutgers as a CFP Dark Horse....
- Thread starter Tango Two
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It’s exciting to finally not be an automatic win on everyone else’s schedule. I have no idea what our ceiling is but it’s definitely a lot higher than it’s ever been since we’ve been in the BIG which is what’s most exciting - the newness of being in this situation. Most Rutgers fans are thrilled to finally have a preseason where the odds for a nice 7-8 win season are not remote.
That said - I think most folks other than Al realize /acknowledge that the probability of a 5 or 6 win season is still a whole lot greater than a 10 win season. This includes the media shops projecting us as a dark horse. Being a dark horse - means a run isn’t impossible. It doesn’t mean it’s likely and it certainly doesn’t mean anything close to 10 wins is our floor.
We should be getting noticed It is long overdue for RU to have good teams. This year is the start of big time FB for RU. beaced has spoken
we had two games we lost last year that took two bad things to happen at the same exact time for us to lose- Those INT for TD calls lost both games and in both cases- it took a horrendous play call and horrendous execution in both.
We our negative posters love to post how we beat no one- they tend to forget just how well we played in some losses. Even in a blowout to Mich- we most likely gave them one of their top 3 hardest games all year. I put our 2 losses to OSU and Wisc up against any win that VaTech had all year.
I agree on the ceiling though. The floor could be 5 but my floor is 6 next year.
Outside of a few Shelbys there’s nobody who isn’t acknowledging the strides that we made - both against better teams last season and in general from the time Greg took over.
That doesn’t mean we should act like any of the wins we collected have been anything close to signature. Thats a box we still haven’t checked. It’s a build. Things happen over time. We’re in a good place.
But that doesn’t make it negative to recognize that we’ve yet to beat a bowl eligible team on the road since joining the BIG (as an example). Most of the teams we’re playing away from home next year look like bowl teams. Those are going to be more difficult games than the ones we’ve won to this point. That doesn’t mean we can’t win them - but it’s unrealistic to act like it should be a cake walk.
Agree with everything you said
Re ceiling 9, talent & schedule there to win more, but based on our weaknesses, I don’t think we get higher than that
I hate being realistic before the season starts. I much rather look at reasons why RU will go undefeated , untied and National Champions .
But 9 wins is probably the ceiling .
VT isn't an assured win and playing at their house is a factor making me leery of that game.
There are predicting VT is a ACC title contender this year.
VT quarterback Kyron Drones. is considered a very good gual threat QB who took the starting position in week 3 and ended the season with around 2,100 yrds , 17 touchdowns to just three picks while rushing for a little over 800 yards with 5 TDs
Washington coming to play at SHI gives RU an edge, but respite the changes to that program
it is one to fear and not fall for the they lost to much to win.
The Husky program is still a good one and their new HC proved himself at the UofA and though they lost a great College QB, the portal brought them Will Rogers from Mississippi State who had a great career there
Those are two games that worry me a lot
There nothing wrong with dreaming big and choosing to focus on that rather than think about things that might happen to spoil those dreams. Dreaming is very different from “expecting” though and that’s my issue with Al’s posts. Is he going to be bummed and screaming for Schiano to be on the chopping block if we only go 8-4? I’d hope nobody would (and I certainly doubt Al would). In which case - 10 wins isn’t close to the floor to avoid a disappointing season. So why say that?
#1, Shelby #1 does acknowledge Schiano has elevated the program since he took over. Elevated from rock-bottom to average. Hallelujah.
#2 Re: 01's comment, for every game when 'things happened and we should have won' there was a game fortuitous 'things happened and we should have lost.' Michigan State made several awful blunders in blowing the big 4th quarter lead.
Let's be real. One year doesn't make a trend. And besides, we were 3-6 in the conference. Replacing three auto-losses with probable losses or 50/50s isn't going to dramatically change Schiano's long term results.
One thing that is a real trend is poor QB play. Replacing the worst QB in CFB with someone nearly as bad doesn't change things. "Game manager" is positive spin on a poor QB.
Your last point - is unfair. You have no proof to date that a game manager at QB couldn’t translate into much more success on offense - no evidence whatsoever. Under Schiano 2.0 - we have not yet once experienced a game manager who had an opportunity to navigate the offense behind a servicable OL. Vedral started to show glimpses of what this might look like in the game we went toe to toe with Michigan in 2021 losing on the last possession. Then we lost Reggie Sutton for the season and O’Neal got hurt and was never the same. The 2 deep on the line was horrendous back then so it was all down hill from there. Look - all you have to do is lPacheco’s numbers to understand how just bad our line was.
There were other circumstances surrounding why Gavin had to be given the opportunity to try to work through his accuracy issues last season. Please don’t argue that game manager and bad QB are interchangeable terms when Gavin clearly failed to meet the requirements to earn the designation of suitable game manager. Having that would’ve helped us last year - we didn’t have it though. Game managers complete simple, uninspiring passes in the short and midrange with reasonable accuracy. Gavin wasn’t able to do this. If AK can there’s definite potential for a much better season.
Realistically, it’s hard to argue a floor of 6 or more with 10 potentially losable games on the schedules. I’d say 2-8 or worse is very unlikely and so is 8-2 or better - though not impossible. Anything from 3-7 to 7-3 feels possible.
At least you recognize the truth on the first several points.
Now about 'game managers'. By definition, and if we're being honest, that refers to QBs who aren't as productive as better QBs. Quarterback X isn't a strong passer or effective runner. He's a game manager.
The term was invented as spin to mask the truth. Just like Climate Change is slanted spin for Global Warming.
Don't let the terminology fool you. We have a game manager ? No thanks.
Can we win with a game manager ? Depends against who. Not often in this conference. Teams with better QBs win more, obviously. How many games will we have the better QB in ?
I’ll bite. I think (and with fairly high confidence) Vedral could’ve and would’ve beaten that Michigan team we lost to 20-13 in 2021 with last year’s OL. Even with Sutton, that line had holes that made establishing the run a big challenge. We had an NFL star caliber RB on the roster who barely managed pedestrian numbers. Think about that one. That’s 100% because of the line. Not every elite team has a star QB who makes acrobatic throws. OSU didn’t have one last year by the way.
Bob Uecker hit a home run off of Sandy Koufax. Could Vedral have beaten Michigan with last year's line ? And with Carroo ? And JJ Watt, Darrelle Revis and Troy Polamalu from the transfer portal ? If my dog could climb trees and shit in a litter box without training it would be a cat.
Every cat and dog has its day but if you're suggesting having a game manager is preferable or even passable instead of having a productive QB, you're in Fieldhouse Al territory. Being one-dimensional is a major weakness. It's why we won just 3 conference games, two of which were against teams in disarray with raging scandals and brand new coaches.
No Shelby. It’s not like that. I’m not saying we needed a Caroo or any other additional skill players. We had a now proven NBA star RB on the roster, but he only managed to pick up 647 yards because our OL was not close to BIG caliber. It actually didn’t matter who the QB was those early years of 2.0 because of how bad we were in the trenches on both run and pass protection. Last year was really the first time that wasn’t the case so it’s really the only year where the QB position truly held us back. This will probably sound harsh to Gavin, but pretty much any starting QB we’ve had in recent memory besides him would’ve been much better. I just can’t recall another starter for any team missing as many bunny passes as he did. It’s actually remarkable that we did as well as we did considering.
Dude- shelby doesnt really care to actually have a real discussion. The dope likes to refer to himself 3rd party and I put him on the opposite end of Al- except, I love Al and his positivity- even if misguided at times- but Al- let's you know who he is and does not hide up in Syracuse.
It frustrates me when the negative posters do not allow anyone to speculate or even make an "observation" like you did. We all know- in Vedral/IP years, we did not have the supporting team we have now- As a fan- we are allowed to wonder- "what if" - and I do not know if KM will have IP's NFL career but in college- the dude is a stud RB. Will AK be the same as Vedral and would NV have been more than a game manager if he had this OL, gameplan etc? How will AK do?
It is fund discussion fans have- and for these guys like shelby to just say everything ends up the negative- I would love to go back to see how many wins he thought we were going to have prior to the 2023 season. Where we surpassed everyone's expectations.
9-3 this season would be a dream season. With this schedule that’s a bigger accomplishment than 2006. Would be most successful season in program history. Is it possible…..
All QBs better than Gavin, correct. And isn't that Schiano's fault ? But, none of the recent QBs would have been any different in W-L, nor will AK.
To take your toe of stance- we don’t know- if AK is the QB- does he make those Int for TD? But then again- does he run for a 80 yd TD
True, we don’t know. He lost his job in Minnesota and if not for the Ciarrocca connection he wouldnt be here or an FBS starter anywhere else. He hasn’t shown he’s a good QB. My point is, we were 3-6 in conference last year and he seems unlikely to be a significant improvement. I’ve seen him predicted to be the worst QB in the conference.
I don’t think the easier schedule will result in a notably better record. Say we go 4-5 instead of 3-6, but lose to VT. We’re still a 6 win reg season team
I don’t think the easier schedule will result in a notably better record. Say we go 4-5 instead of 3-6, but lose to VT. We’re still a 6 win reg season team
No it’s not Schiano’s fault. I don’t think Urban Meyer could’ve made Gavin accurate. If UK’s staff turns Gavin into a star I will eat crow.
In terms of W-L your making a blanket statement without any support, of course, just as I would be doing if I argued otherwise. There’s obviously no way to know. Let’s see how things go this season. Every offense looks a lot better with a competent OL which we never had until last season.
I think the point is you can't really speculate any one specific play.
On the other hand, there were many balls that fell incomplete last year or did not allow for yards after catch because of how poorly the ball was thrown. The ones in the flat were so bad that most high school QBs could’ve been more accurate so it’s safe to say we’ll be picking up years we didn’t get in this regard next season without going out much on a limb. It won’t take that much.
I meant Schiano’s fault in the sense that he didn’t have a better QB1 and didn’t even bother to recruit a QB a year after Gavin.
Even you will admit Schiano’s track record with QBs stinks like a football sized pocket of pus on a fly-covered skunk rotting on a south Texas highway on an August afternoon.
He’s a good defensive coach, but the polar opposite on the other side of the ball.
Honestly, no, not really. Yes - Wimsatt turned out to be a bust, but I’m not sure where another QB would’ve fit the mold to come in behind him in that year. We had Vedral who by all counts would’ve gotten us to a bowl game in 2022 if not for his injury. Greg entered that season hoping Gavin would make a big jump during the season but with Noah as his security blanket and the expected starter.
We’ve discussed the reasons why Schiano had to go through the kid glove motions with Gavin. The family culture is a real thing and a big reason why recruiting is trending so well. It’s the same reason Greg let Gavin transfer and didn’t string him along.
As for Greg’s offensive coaching - he deserves big props for the work he’s done to improve the OL. He’s produced more than his share of NFL skill players too with Kyle the next in line so I’m not buying it. Let’s see how the season comes together.
I’m very positive about our chances this year. We are hopefully getting an even slightly improved pass game which could be huge.
But let’s not forget what we lose / what we need to overcome. While GW was not a very accurate passer, defenses had to Account for him as a runner. A QB running threat is sometimes like a 12th man on the field, and we are giving that up in the hopes of more short pass completions and a better probability of yards after catch. That’s the reality.
I have high hopes but there are no guarantees in this move.
But let’s not forget what we lose / what we need to overcome. While GW was not a very accurate passer, defenses had to Account for him as a runner. A QB running threat is sometimes like a 12th man on the field, and we are giving that up in the hopes of more short pass completions and a better probability of yards after catch. That’s the reality.
I have high hopes but there are no guarantees in this move.
You always recruit a QB every year. Period. another QB thing he bungled.
Now, I’m sure Typhoid Mary had an easier time finding romantic partners than GS can attract good QBs (or Fieldhouse Al can attract dates) but his QB coaching and reputation is his own fault.
He did well with Teel, but in the 15 years he’s been here he’s done a poor job overall. Who have been Rutgers’ best QBs ? Lucas, Erney, Fortay, McMahon. Maybe Teel. Who’s Schiano’s next best ?
Now, I’m sure Typhoid Mary had an easier time finding romantic partners than GS can attract good QBs (or Fieldhouse Al can attract dates) but his QB coaching and reputation is his own fault.
He did well with Teel, but in the 15 years he’s been here he’s done a poor job overall. Who have been Rutgers’ best QBs ? Lucas, Erney, Fortay, McMahon. Maybe Teel. Who’s Schiano’s next best ?
The 2.0 era has had 2 QBs. Vedral was as good as we were going to get in 2020 and 2021. And it didn’t really matter because the line was so bad that nobody would’ve been good just as Pacheco couldn’t do anything special because of the crap run blocking. Vedral was also a good returning complement to break in Wimsatt in 2022. The only real issue so far in the 2.0 era is that Gavin didn’t pan out. It’s a big miss and it stinks being how big a recruit Gavin was. But it’s still only one guy. Let’s see how AK does before ripping the coaches. I mean geez - literally every other position group is vastly improved. Nobody has a 100% hit rate.
While I agree that skipping a year recruiting a QB should be a durable offense- your latter statement- I do agree he is a defensive guy but…over a 10 year period- he did recruit 2 QB’s tgat put on NFL uniforms - just saying
Recruited, yes. But he bungled Savage, didn’t recognize or utilize the talent and used him mostly to pass on third and long, favoring the Wild Knight dumpster fire offense instead. Teel was the only good QB. None of the others were any good here. Game managers at best, Jabu and Jefferson at worst.
QB isn’t the only position on offense. What we’ve done to incrementally improve the OL from the time Greg got here is a huge feather in his cap. Shelby really underestimates the importance of an OL. Probably because of the success Kansas has had and he’s attributing that (on one team in a conference that’s less defense oriented) with only needing a QB. Let’s see what happens with Kansas over the next couple years when their next QB rolls in. Improving the OL is program building. Landing a QB that ends up being a stud tends to be more one hit wonder oriented. Let’s see what happens.
