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Latest Lunardi bracketology....

Agree with the notion that 21 wins gets them there. Remember the Caldwell College win is not considered, so 20 Division 1 wins.

1 road win still concerns me. Would like for them to pick up another, or the MSG one as a neutral court win.
 
flyrradio said:
Agree with the notion that 21 wins gets them there. Remember the Caldwell College win is not considered, so 20 Division 1 wins.

1 road win still concerns me. Would like for them to pick up another, or the MSG one as a neutral court win.
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Agreed. Until we steal another game on the road or at MSG, our home record will likely be an albatross with the selection committee.
 
The conference may not get 12 wins but it’s not like they’ll only get 8. With everybody beating each other up 11 teams is most likely, especially if a team like Michigan doesn’t recover, but the committee isn’t going to leave teams out just because there’s too many Big Ten teams.
 
more important to look at this tomorrow. A win vs loss tonight will have impact. Win tonight and we may move up a slot but a loss may knock us to a 10 or out entirely.
 
RUfinal4 said:
more important to look at this tomorrow. A win vs loss tonight will have impact. Win tonight and we may move up a slot but a loss may knock us to a 10 or out entirely.
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You have to find more deserving resumes in other Power 5/6 leagues. It's going to be less than 10 from the B1G, only if programs like NC State stop losing games at Georgia Tech and home games to UNC.

If Washington and Oregon State didn't just have a horrible 4 game stretch....I can browse the dish for an hour or two and simply watch a handful of teams at a time since the start of December....it's very difficult to say some of these teams are clearly better than what we are playing against, night in and out.

It's just the reality of a year that doesn't fit the model of what fans are used to seeing. No one here controls Jerry Palm, Joe Lunardi or these projections. There has to be significant improvement from about 5 to 6 other programs around the country that are outside the bubble. And until that happens, these projections are going to continue to be front and center.
 
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While double digits feels weird, we’re still in the relatively early years of the consolidated power conferences. It could become the norm to have 10+ teams from the B1G or ACC in years to come
 
kcg88 said:
I will bet real American money against 12 bids
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Good bet. There are several reasons why the conference will not get 12 bids: 1) Remember for every game played, someone loses. The top teams are starting to separate from the pack (Illinois 6 game winning streak, iowa 5 game and Maryland 3 game). As teams get hot, other teams will sbe losing and dropping down in the ratings. 2) The committee will get pressured to add 2nd teams from lesser conferences rather than give a bid to a .500 Big Ten team. 9 is the ceiling, 7 is the floor.
 
littlenis5 said:
While double digits feels weird, we’re still in the relatively early years of the consolidated power conferences. It could become the norm to have 10+ teams from the B1G or ACC in years to come
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We do have 14 teams in the conference. Doesn't seem outrageous or unreasonable any more. Still so much better than ridiculous football system.
 
BigLou said:
Good bet. There are several reasons why the conference will not get 12 bids: 1) Remember for every game played, someone loses. The top teams are starting to separate from the pack (Illinois 6 game winning streak, iowa 5 game and Maryland 3 game). As teams get hot, other teams will sbe losing and dropping down in the ratings. 2) The committee will get pressured to add 2nd teams from lesser conferences rather than give a bid to a .500 Big Ten team. 9 is the ceiling, 7 is the floor.
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The thing is that many of these lesser conferences don't have much of a chance at getting a 2nd team. Someone like Liberty might have been in play, but just had two awful losses in a row. Northern Iowa has a couple of bad losses in conference and can't afford to slip much more (and unless Loyola Chicago almost runs the table until the title game, they aren't getting in). Akron might have an outside shot, but they can't take more bad losses like that Toledo loss at home.

The committee never really gets "pressured" to do anything. They select who they feel are the best 36 at-large teams, irrespective of conference. The B1G's ceiling is definitely higher than 9. What we have going for us is that the teams at the bottom of the conference standings are the ones that had tremendous non-conference performances (Michigan and OSU). Those teams could slide in at 8-12 with the current landscape.

I still think that 10 is most likely, with 11 more likely than 9 (though those two are almost a toss-up). It would have to be a perfect storm for 12, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility if the parity continues in the league (and everyone keeps beating up on Nebraska and Northwestern).
 
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BigLou said:
Good bet. There are several reasons why the conference will not get 12 bids: 1) Remember for every game played, someone loses. The top teams are starting to separate from the pack (Illinois 6 game winning streak, iowa 5 game and Maryland 3 game). As teams get hot, other teams will sbe losing and dropping down in the ratings. 2) The committee will get pressured to add 2nd teams from lesser conferences rather than give a bid to a .500 Big Ten team. 9 is the ceiling, 7 is the floor.
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i like your reasoning.Parity in the B1G will cause more than half the teams to have more than 10 losses and teams with the most road wins will be rewarded .
 
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A lot can change until the regular season ends on March 7. Personally I think the BIG will get 10 teams in our maybe only 9 depending on how the rest of the league games play out. I just don't think the committee will take 12 and probably not even 11 teams. We just need to keep getting wins. There are a lot of tough games remaining on our schedule.
 
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I think we all agree there are 14 candidates as NEB and NW won't win 5 games.

Michigan Purdue Ohio State Wisconsin are 4 teams with either bad B1G records or are behind the 8 ball with OOC record. I'd think at best 2 of these 4 make it.

That leaves 10 max bids and it is probable that 1 of the remaining 8 falls apart and doesnt make it....RU? IU? even Iowa come to mind.
 
I honestly don’t think national commentators are willing or able to follow the nightly action of the Big Ten and keep up with the crazy results. Their opinions and hot takes are all either singularly focused or totally lagging (OSU and Purdue still receiving votes??).
 
Really is 11.5 B1G teams, as Minny is in an either/or slot with NC State for #11 in the West.

Had to laugh at the Kansas v Monmouth rematch, especially after the theatrics with KSU (stealing ball with game decided & brawl). KU will probably put the pedal down all the way to 0.00.
 
you know how much things can change

last year Penn State started 0-10 in league play and finished 7-13 and by seasons end no one wanted to play them

in a league where games are going down to the wire almost 95% of the time, how can anyone even take a guess on what the final records of any Big 10 schools besides maybe Nebraska and Northwestern will look like
 
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The same way I can make a reasonable guess at the results if I flip a coin 10 times :p
 
bac2therac said:
you know how much things can change

last year Penn State started 0-10 in league play and finished 7-13 and by seasons end no one wanted to play them

in a league where games are going down to the wire almost 95% of the time, how can anyone even take a guess on what the final records of any Big 10 schools besides maybe Nebraska and Northwestern will look like
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this times 1,000,000
 
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