i like your reasoning.Parity in the B1G will cause more than half the teams to have more than 10 losses and teams with the most road wins will be rewarded .
Then you also don't know what you're talking about.
Lunardi isn't going to try and predict what happens so the conference #s are skewed...
Big Ten 12
SEC 5
Pac-12 5
Big 12 5
Big East 5
American 4
ACC 4
West Coast 3
Atlantic 10 2
ACC will not get only 4.
SEC will get 6 (we have no idea who it will be, games dont end in ties)
There will be between 0 and 5 bid stealers. They will eat in to B1G totals.
The ACC can definitely end up with four. Only Duke, Louisville, and Florida State are looking good currently, and while 1-2 of Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina State likely get in, it's certainly very possible for it to be only 1. It's even possible they only end up with three, though 4-5 is definitely more likely.
I agree the SEC will get 6 or even 7. Kentucky, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Florida for sure, Alabama likely, and then Tennessee and Mississippi State have some shot.
However, I think the Big 12 is likely to fall to 4 (Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Texas Tech). There are some scenarios where they get 5, but it's almost as likely they get only 3.
The Big East could go up to 6 as Georgetown and St. John's both have outside shots in addition to the 5 locks (Seton Hall, Villanova, Butler, Marquette, Creighton).
The American is almost certainly not getting in 4. Only Houston and Wichita St have a good shot, and then more likely than not one of Cincinnati and Memphis gets in, but the American as a 2 bid league is very possible.
West Coast at 3 is a virtual lock.
A10 could go up to 3; Rhode Island has a decent shot.
At the end of the day, before bid stealers, you are most likely looking at:
A10 2 or 3 (2 most likely)
ACC 4 or 5 (4 most likely)
Amer 2 or 3 (3 most likely)
B12 4
BE 5 or 6 (5 most likely)
MWC 1 or 2 (2 most likely)
P12 5
SC 1 or 2 (1 most likely)
SEC 6 or 7 (6 most likely)
WCC 3
Everyone else 1 each = 21 total
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If you take the high end of literally every other conference, you would have 7 spots for the B1G.
If you take the low end, you have, well, 14 spots for the B1G.
I think we can agree those are both unrealistic. If you take the midpoint, you have 10.5 spots. If you take the most likely, you have 12.
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As for bid stealers, where could it happen:
A10, to get to 4, ~5% chance (needs both a tourney upset AND 3 at large bids, neither of which is particularly likely)
ACC, to get to 6, <10% chance (the 7th best or worse team would have to win that tournament without also knocking more than one of the very precarious Syracuse, Virginia, VTech out of an at-large bid)
American, to get to 4, ~10% chance. Houston and Wichita St will get in at large even if they lose the tourney. Cincinnati or Memphis
could as well. Cincinnati, Memphis, SMU, and Tulsa all have at least some shot to win the conference tourney; you could get a scenario where one of them does so, and one of Cincinnati/Memphis gets an at large bid.
Big 12. Almost no chance of a "traditional" bid steal (no one outside of Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia is likely to win that tourney, and the next most likely candidates Texas Tech / Oklahoma would probably have the resume to get an at-large bid if they were winning the tourney). However, there is probably a 20-25% chance for them to get to 5 at large bids where TTech and Oklahoma both make it.
Big East, maybe a 10% chance to get up to 7.
Ivy, maybe a 1% chance Yale could manage to get a bid with a loss in the conference tourney, but realistically almost no shot.
MVC 10-15% chance to get to 2. If Northern Iowa loses in the final of the conference tourney they might be able to get a bid.
MWC 5-10% chance of getting to 3. San Diego St is in no matter what. Would need someone worse than USU to win the tourney AND USU to get an at-large bid. It's tough for both to happen.
P12 15-20% chance of getting to 6 where Washington gets in (outside shot at either an at-large bid or winning the tourney).
SEC ~5% chance to get 8 in, either by both Tennessee and Mississippi St getting in at large or one of them winning the tourney.
WCC ~5% chance of getting 4. Gonzaga, BYU, Saint Mary's are all in without winning the conference tournament, so if San Francisco pulls out a miracle they could steal a bid.
Everyone else literally no chance. Overall, that's an expectation of ~1 bid stolen, maybe you could get 2.
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ON THE OTHER HAND, there are also "anti" bid stealers:
There is maybe ~10% chance that none of VCU, Rhode Island, and Richmond perform well enough down the stretch to get in and so Dayton is the only A10 team in.
There is a ~20% chance the ACC gets only THREE as Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and NC State all fail to make it.
There is a ~20% chance the B12 gets only THREE as neither Texas Tech nor Oklahoma manage to get in.
There is a ~20% chance the P12 gets only FOUR as one of Stanford or USC collapses.
There is a ~15% chance the SEC gets only FIVE as Alabama fades and neither Tennessee or Mississippi State manage to take their place.
This is ~1 bid "unstolen".
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So realistically you have 10.5-12 spots minus 0-1 "stolen" bids.