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Latest Lunardi bracketology....

The amount i'd bet couldn't be hi enough. Not happening. 10 maybe.
Agreed. I'd say 8 is probably the minimum with 9 being very likely and maybe 10 at best, though, which is still pretty damn good and why I think 20-11/11-9 is a lock and 19-12/10-10 is likely in, but not a lock - depends on the wins vs. the losses and the "quality" of the losses, i.e., blowouts or not, if we finish 4-7, plus, of course how the rest of the landscape in other conferences shakes out, especially tourney upsets of locked teams that get extra teams in.
 
Agreed. Until we steal another game on the road or at MSG, our home record will likely be an albatross with the selection committee.
We have lost 2 games on the road in the big and they were to two of the top teams in the league at this point so I believe we can win at least 1 on the road and win at MSG on Saturday
 
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In 2011, 11 (of 16) Big East teams qualified for the dance. With the way things are currently shaping up this season, I can't see the 2020 NCAA tournament without 10 (of 14) B1G teams.

Of course, this has been a crazy college basketball season, and things can turn on a dime. Still a lot of hoops to play before March 15.
 
i like your reasoning.Parity in the B1G will cause more than half the teams to have more than 10 losses and teams with the most road wins will be rewarded .

Then you also don't know what you're talking about.

Lunardi isn't going to try and predict what happens so the conference #s are skewed...

Big Ten 12
SEC 5
Pac-12 5
Big 12 5
Big East 5
American 4
ACC 4
West Coast 3
Atlantic 10 2

ACC will not get only 4.
SEC will get 6 (we have no idea who it will be, games dont end in ties)
There will be between 0 and 5 bid stealers. They will eat in to B1G totals.

The ACC can definitely end up with four. Only Duke, Louisville, and Florida State are looking good currently, and while 1-2 of Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina State likely get in, it's certainly very possible for it to be only 1. It's even possible they only end up with three, though 4-5 is definitely more likely.

I agree the SEC will get 6 or even 7. Kentucky, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Florida for sure, Alabama likely, and then Tennessee and Mississippi State have some shot.

However, I think the Big 12 is likely to fall to 4 (Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Texas Tech). There are some scenarios where they get 5, but it's almost as likely they get only 3.

The Big East could go up to 6 as Georgetown and St. John's both have outside shots in addition to the 5 locks (Seton Hall, Villanova, Butler, Marquette, Creighton).

The American is almost certainly not getting in 4. Only Houston and Wichita St have a good shot, and then more likely than not one of Cincinnati and Memphis gets in, but the American as a 2 bid league is very possible.

West Coast at 3 is a virtual lock.

A10 could go up to 3; Rhode Island has a decent shot.

At the end of the day, before bid stealers, you are most likely looking at:
A10 2 or 3 (2 most likely)
ACC 4 or 5 (4 most likely)
Amer 2 or 3 (3 most likely)
B12 4
BE 5 or 6 (5 most likely)
MWC 1 or 2 (2 most likely)
P12 5
SC 1 or 2 (1 most likely)
SEC 6 or 7 (6 most likely)
WCC 3
Everyone else 1 each = 21 total
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If you take the high end of literally every other conference, you would have 7 spots for the B1G.

If you take the low end, you have, well, 14 spots for the B1G.

I think we can agree those are both unrealistic. If you take the midpoint, you have 10.5 spots. If you take the most likely, you have 12.
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As for bid stealers, where could it happen:

A10, to get to 4, ~5% chance (needs both a tourney upset AND 3 at large bids, neither of which is particularly likely)

ACC, to get to 6, <10% chance (the 7th best or worse team would have to win that tournament without also knocking more than one of the very precarious Syracuse, Virginia, VTech out of an at-large bid)

American, to get to 4, ~10% chance. Houston and Wichita St will get in at large even if they lose the tourney. Cincinnati or Memphis could as well. Cincinnati, Memphis, SMU, and Tulsa all have at least some shot to win the conference tourney; you could get a scenario where one of them does so, and one of Cincinnati/Memphis gets an at large bid.

Big 12. Almost no chance of a "traditional" bid steal (no one outside of Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia is likely to win that tourney, and the next most likely candidates Texas Tech / Oklahoma would probably have the resume to get an at-large bid if they were winning the tourney). However, there is probably a 20-25% chance for them to get to 5 at large bids where TTech and Oklahoma both make it.

Big East, maybe a 10% chance to get up to 7.

Ivy, maybe a 1% chance Yale could manage to get a bid with a loss in the conference tourney, but realistically almost no shot.

MVC 10-15% chance to get to 2. If Northern Iowa loses in the final of the conference tourney they might be able to get a bid.

MWC 5-10% chance of getting to 3. San Diego St is in no matter what. Would need someone worse than USU to win the tourney AND USU to get an at-large bid. It's tough for both to happen.

P12 15-20% chance of getting to 6 where Washington gets in (outside shot at either an at-large bid or winning the tourney).

SEC ~5% chance to get 8 in, either by both Tennessee and Mississippi St getting in at large or one of them winning the tourney.

WCC ~5% chance of getting 4. Gonzaga, BYU, Saint Mary's are all in without winning the conference tournament, so if San Francisco pulls out a miracle they could steal a bid.

Everyone else literally no chance. Overall, that's an expectation of ~1 bid stolen, maybe you could get 2.

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ON THE OTHER HAND, there are also "anti" bid stealers:

There is maybe ~10% chance that none of VCU, Rhode Island, and Richmond perform well enough down the stretch to get in and so Dayton is the only A10 team in.

There is a ~20% chance the ACC gets only THREE as Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and NC State all fail to make it.

There is a ~20% chance the B12 gets only THREE as neither Texas Tech nor Oklahoma manage to get in.

There is a ~20% chance the P12 gets only FOUR as one of Stanford or USC collapses.

There is a ~15% chance the SEC gets only FIVE as Alabama fades and neither Tennessee or Mississippi State manage to take their place.

This is ~1 bid "unstolen".

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So realistically you have 10.5-12 spots minus 0-1 "stolen" bids.
 
Lunardi isn't going to try and predict what happens so the conference #s are skewed...

Big Ten 12
SEC 5
Pac-12 5
Big 12 5
Big East 5
American 4
ACC 4
West Coast 3
Atlantic 10 2

ACC will not get only 4.
SEC will get 6 (we have no idea who it will be, games dont end in ties)
There will be between 0 and 5 bid stealers. They will eat in to B1G totals.
Green, except for Duke, Louisville and FSU, the rest of the league is very soft this year. I expect maybe one, maybe two more teams in like Sadexcuse and maybe V Tech. NC State had a terrible loss at home to UNC last night.
 
there is way too much overanalyzing given we have barely reached the midway point in the conference season
'
in the old days, there was no bracketology until February

Yeah this is stupid. Get to 8-3 this week and we'll talk seeding. Otherwise it's pointless, too much is going to change.
 
there is way too much overanalyzing given we have barely reached the midway point in the conference season
'
in the old days, there was no bracketology until February
Agreed given the huge amount of uncertainty in the evolution of a season which is less than half over in conferences, but for some reason people still like doing them. Kind of like the weather boards overanalyzing day 8 model runs, lol...
 
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On the one hand, sure its really early. On the other hand, people keep posting ridiculous takes like the Big Ten can't get in more than 8 teams, and those need refuting.
 
Michigan might fall off a cliff... If they lose without Simpson and Livers at Nebraska, which I wouldn't be surprised at, they then travel to MSG to play Rutgers and there is no guarantee either will be play. They would be 11-10 in that scenario
 
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Agreed given the huge amount of uncertainty in the evolution of a season which is less than half over in conferences, but for some reason people still like doing them. Kind of like the weather boards overanalyzing day 8 model runs, lol...
if you like weather or you are a RU fan that it is never too early
 
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Michigan might fall off a cliff... If they lose without Simpson and Livers at Nebraska, which I wouldn't be surprised at, they then travel to MSG to play Rutgers and there is no guarantee either will be play. They would be 11-10 in that scenario
some might argue they have been falling for some time.

Cue Mrs. Fletcher
 
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Yeah this is stupid. Get to 8-3 this week and we'll talk seeding. Otherwise it's pointless, too much is going to change.


and listen, I am going to break my own rules and start bracketology earlier this year..almost 3 weeks earlier when I do it next week. but even I have to wait until everyone has played more than half the league games
 
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Agreed. Until we steal another game on the road or at MSG, our home record will likely be an albatross with the selection committee.

Are you insane? Our home record is what gets us in. An albatross? If we end up 11-9 in conference, we are in. Assuming we protect home court, lose at MSG, and lose all of our remaining away games, we get in. Win out at home and beat Mich at MSG, 12-8 in conference, we are in. At the end of the day, we will probably slip up at home, almost did against Nebraska, and will win a close game on the road. Maybe more than one.
 
I hate to even write this.....we come this week with a staple gun. With Purdue and Michigan on the schedule....
 
Are you insane? Our home record is what gets us in. An albatross? If we end up 11-9 in conference, we are in. Assuming we protect home court, lose at MSG, and lose all of our remaining away games, we get in. Win out at home and beat Mich at MSG, 12-8 in conference, we are in. At the end of the day, we will probably slip up at home, almost did against Nebraska, and will win a close game on the road. Maybe more than one.
Sane last I checked, but what do I know. Anyways, its best not leave any question in the minds of the selection committee for them to think RU's record is only a product of our home court advantage.

Note that I fully expect us to win this w/e at MSG and possibly another road contest. I'm just saying we might just get snubbed until we win at least one more road game.
 
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Wow the mid major BE getting over seeded yet again on the projections.

I don't understand this post. The BE is easily a power conference, one of the top three. The Big East is as much better than the ACC as the ACC is compared to the American. The Big East is as much better than the SEC as the SEC is compared to the WCC.
 
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I don't understand this post. The BE is easily a power conference, one of the top three. The Big East is as much better than the ACC as the ACC is compared to the American. The Big East is as much better than the SEC as the SEC is compared to the WCC.

@scarletrat never misses a chance to take a shot at SHU and/or our old conference. I personally admire his commitment. This board needs a resident flame thrower. Especially now that we are good.

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Just watch the Big Least get blasted again in the tournament. Made some easy money betting against them last year. Especially nova to get spanked by Purdue
 
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