Caleb is the only player who plays with full effort every minute he’s on the floor. If everyone did this we’d have a better record.
Maryland Thoughts
- Thread starter fluoxetine
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You do not want 1/3 of your shots from mid range that’s a recipe for disaster especially with a bad shooting team like ours. Right now 30% of our attempts are not at the rim or 3pt line which is 351st in the country.
Agreed. But unfortunately in this game nobody was getting to the rim. That was my point in saying it’s unfair to criticize Caleb’s 15 shot attempts. 6 of them were at the rim (lay ups or put backs) and 6 were from 3 (he made half of those). Going 1-3 from mid-range isn’t great, but it also doesn’t deserve a thread worth of criticism given how little offense the rest of the team provided outside of 3 guys.
We started 3/3 from the field. 8 of our next 19 shots over the next 14 minutes were from McConnell.... why is he taking 42% of our shot attempts during a 14 minute span?
Crazy that our 2-point shooting was the only real negative in this game.
We shot decent from the arc at 33%, and well from the foul line at 80%. And even though we missed 13 more shots than MD we outrebounded them by 2 (39-37) including a 14-8 advantage on offensive boards.
We had more assists (17-12), more steals (7-1), more blocked shots (5-4), and fewer turnovers (7-10). So, even though they outshot us from three, we could have won with better 2-point shooting.
We shot decent from the arc at 33%, and well from the foul line at 80%. And even though we missed 13 more shots than MD we outrebounded them by 2 (39-37) including a 14-8 advantage on offensive boards.
We had more assists (17-12), more steals (7-1), more blocked shots (5-4), and fewer turnovers (7-10). So, even though they outshot us from three, we could have won with better 2-point shooting.
According to rankings we are shooting 34.3% from 3, which is good for 134th out of 358, 46.4% from 2pt for 284th out of 358.
Geo is our best mid range 26-58 44.8%
21-22 Rim 228-380 60%, Mid 126-383 32.9%, 124-362 34.3%
Average 11.7-20, 6.6-20.2, 6.5-19.1
We are taking way too many mid range shots, causing us to revert back to Pike's first 3 years but we shoot the 3 much better now, to keep us afloat above .500.
As a comparison to what good team do,
Gonzaga 15-2
21-22 Rim 336-465 72.3%, Mid 96-220 43.6%, 3pt 141-388 36.3%
Arizona 16-2
21-22 Rim 321-439 73.1%, Mid 86-250 34.4%, 3pt 149-435 34.3%
Baylor 18-2
21-22 Rim 277-384 72.1%, Mid 144-373 38.6%, 3pt 175-479 36.5
Kansas 17-2
21-22 Rim 302-448 67.4%, Mid 123-311 39.5%, 3pt 147-402 36.6%
Houston 17-2
21-22 Rim 261-387 67.4%, Mid 120-322 38.1%, 3pt 161-454 35.5%
Villanova 15-5
21-22 Rim 225-383 58.7%, Mid 87-241 36.1%, 3pt 188-520 36.2%
Mid range game is to keep the defense honest on shots at the rim and 3pt attempts than actually scoring points, if you hit them bonus, but it is used to open the lane and the 3 point arc, the higher %, more efficient shots. We are shooting.at.a high clip from up close but we aren't getting to the rim enough the way we need to win consistently like the last 2 years, 24 to 21 to 20, while mid.range 15.6, 17.6 to 20.2, the least efficient shot in basketball.
20-21 Rim 359-600 59.8% Mid 209-493 42.4% 3pt 172-550 31.3% 28gm(16-12)
Average 12.8-21.4, 7.5-17.6, 6.1-19.6
Mid- Geo 41-79 52%, *JY 46-112 41%*, Myles 19-42 42%, Ron 39-90 43%, *Mathis 20-54 37%*, Caleb 19-58 33%, Cliff 9-16, Paul 9-23
Rim- Ron 62-98 65%, **JY 75-128 59%**, Myles 79-110 71.8%, Geo 22-42 52%, **Mathis 42-93 45.2%**, Caleb 15-32, Cliff 26-39, Paul 27-42
JY improved last season, but Mathis 45% was whoafully inefficient, at least Geo and Caleb know at the rim isn't their game unless it is on a fast break.
19-20 Rim 444-761 58.3% Mid 183-485 37.7% 3pt 162-526 30.8% 31gm(20-11)
Average 14.3-24.5, 5.9-15.6, 5.2-17.0
Mid- RHJ 28-82 34.1%, Geo 37-83 44.6%, AY 16-49 32.7%, Myles 9-32, Caleb 38-89, **Mathis 15-48 31.3%**, Paul 10-17, **JY 14-47 29.8%**, Carter 13-29 44.8%
Rim- RHJ 68-105 65%, Geo 39-72 54%, AY 50-79 63%, Myles 95-137 69.3%, Caleb 26-49 53%, **Mathis 49-110 44.5%**, Paul 25-41, **JY 61-121 50.4%**
JY 50 and MM 45% least efficient near the rim
18-19 Rim 417-716 58.2% Mid 163-512 31.8% 3pt 191-612 31.2% 31gm(14-17)
17-18 Rim 384-700 54.3% *Mid 265-794 33.4%* 3pt 143-482 29.7% 34gm(15-19)
16-17 Rim 467-861 54.2% Mid 168-563 29.8% 3pt 144-477 30.2% 33gm(15-18)
Jordan era
15-16 Rim 426-783 54.4% Mid 173-550 31.5% 3pt 156-485 32.2%
It took Pikiell 2-3 years to cut down on the low %, mid range game, JY and Mathis transferred off this team because they didn't buy into analytics and efficiency that helps top teams win games and stay at the top.
JY 19-20 61-121, 14-47, 15-59
JY 20-21 75-128, 46-112, 31-84
JY 21-22 49-86, 18-51, 13-47
MM 19-20 49-110, 15-48, 19-62
MM 20-21 42-93, 20-54, 22-74
MM 21-22 43-83, 10-30, 9-32
Analytics, break down of shots selection by players and the whole nine are on all P6 teams. It's not going away because these tools are so effective to making all players on the roster more efficient than they ever knew they could be, buy in or find somewhere else to play. Pikiell will eventually.get us to.that 65-70% rim shooting and 35-38% 3pt shooting if you trust the process he's coaching.
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Good data digging supporting the what I said but the new conclusion you made at the end here is terribly off. This years team is 351st in the country in rim/3pt rate. That’s the process Pike is coaching, building it to 8th worst in the country.
Well his first shot at the 17:36 mark was a 3 taken with 2 seconds left on the shot clock. Can’t really blame him for taking that one. The next two were part of the same possession - off his own steal. He misses and then misses again on the put back. When you have numbers you have to attempt those.
The next 5 shots were misses - but not him. I think he came out briefly for Miller? At 13:09 he misses another one with the shot clock expiring - 2 seconds to go (this time a jumper). At 12:18 he makes a lay up. That’s 5 shots so far. He misses a lay up at 11:24 (this time 6 seconds on the shot clock) Cliff tips the rebound to him and Caleb goes immediately back up with it (misses). Maybe he should’ve reset there but keep in mind, this is when we had a weird line up out there with him including Miller, Hyatt and Mag. Wasn’t exactly a scorer friendly bunch. The last of the 8 shots you are referring to was at the 8:37 mark - another missed fast break layup off his own steal.
Now I’m not saying he had a good game or anything, but when you look at this shot selection comprehensively, it’s not like the kid was just chucking up shots. He rarely does that. I just didn’t think the comparison to Tez who would drive into double teams regularly was fair
We need to take more threes, and we need to stop taking so many damn mid-range shots.
LOL, not sure what the issue is exactly.
I did not know who the announcer was at the time but I will say that I looked up Len Elmore and he seems like quite an impressive guy so maybe I should give him another chance. Preferably in a game where my team doesn't miss 15 of 16 shots on the way to torpedoing their (admittedly already pretty slim) NCAA chances.
There are so many posts asking why Caleb took so many shots. Did you watch the game? It's bc they were leaving him open. He had a lot of good looks just missed and then confidence was shot so they left him even more open.
Caleb ideally shouldn't be shooting so much. I think everyone agrees, but if you can't take wide open looks you really shouldn't be on the court. It had to do with their defensive game plan not that we were forcing Caleb the ball
Caleb ideally shouldn't be shooting so much. I think everyone agrees, but if you can't take wide open looks you really shouldn't be on the court. It had to do with their defensive game plan not that we were forcing Caleb the ball
What is even more alarming is how often this team misses from close range. I've seen 8th grade AAU teams with better scoring ability around the rim. Completely baffling.
Elmore stinks. We had an awesome announcer for one of the recent games. Not sure who it was
Meanwhile - since getting over the damn Yips (missed his first 10 three pointers during that miserable stretch) Caleb is shooting 40% from 3. No, he’s not the greatest shooter but his overall season long range percentage is now better than Hyatt, Jones, Mag, Miller and catching up to Paul.
He didn’t even shoot that poorly on the outside shots he took - he was 4-10. He missed 4 out of 5 layup and putback attempts. Some were fast breaks where there was no way in the world he should’ve passed them up. He just missed them.
What’s your adjusted score for Illinois Purdue Penn St Iowa Minnesota Maryland part 1?
Yeah agree with you for sure. Caleb catching a lot of flack don’t think it’s all warranted.
But for those upset with him, at what point do you reconcile not wanting your starting guard to shoot more than 5 shots with thinking this is a tournament team?
A lot of fence sitters out there this year but I don’t think it’s ill-intentioned. Just a lot of people lost in trying to figure out what this team is especially because a lot of people started out thinking this was the best team ever.
I agree, but that’s not what I said, with all due respect. We missed too many 2-point shots (many at point-blank range). I will add that we missed those shots at the rim AND did not draw a foul on those shots, for the most part. We seem to avoid contact when we go up with the ball underneath.
The full context of my post is that we won almost every statistical category, and had we made just a few more bunnies (or drawn a foul on a few) we would still have won, despite being outshot from beyond the arc.
We sucked on offense in that game, but so did Iowa.
This past game Maryland hit over 50% of their threes and we had no offensive answer
Illinois / Penn St who cares, those games weren't close enough for it to matter.
Bearing in mind:
(1) This model is pretty arbitrary. I think the general idea is good but the parameters I just chose without any backtesting or anything
(2) I'm using current season-to-date stats to adjust, so I would've gotten a slightly different answer if I did them right after each game
Purdue 73.7, Rutgers 64.8
Iowa 54.5, Rutgers 51.7
Minnesota 58.41, Rutgers 58.36
Rutgers 65.1, Maryland #1 60.6
Thanks for playing along. I think it was worth doing Illinois, penn st, and Michigan. All in all everything shows we are fortunate to be where we’re at with our record with the easiest part of our schedule behind us. Appreciate the analysis as always but while we may say a more likely outcome v Maryland 2 would be a close Rutgers win, doing the same analysis on our prior wins and losses would show we were either lucky to win at all or shouldn’t have won by the margin we did.
It would also probably show we were unlucky to lose Lafayette, Umass.
This a general fan thing - the what if game assumes the positive results were the most likely outcome and people keep the result the same in a hypothetical of a different outcome of a game we lost.
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I’ll resolve it for you. There’s no reason he can’t take more than 5 shots now that he’s over the damn Yips. Think about if - if you replaced his offense from yesterday with his combined output in the DePaul and Lafayette games (0-11) those games would be wins and we would be squarely on the bubble right now.
We can’t have Paul scoring zero and then get only 6 points from our entire bench. That was the problem yesterday. Not Caleb.
Yeah I agree. I’m not the one killing Caleb for last night. Hard to cherry pick games like you’re doing though because we could still the opposite for Purdue etc. Caleb is what he is, just gotta work with it. Try to get him on the ball a bit more by taking Paul off it some.
Assuming you meant bigs don't not do
These are all major problems. All are categories that lead to high percentage shots and easy buckets. It's why if we aren't on shooting as a team scoring looks sooooo difficult
No I don’t think it’s quite the same. Guys get hot like Willis did the other night and RHJ vs Purdue but what happened with Caleb to start the season seemed different. It was literally like a QB with the mental Yips. Stretch of multiple games where Caleb just couldn’t get anything in the basket and wasn’t even close - that included FTs and he’s always been good from charity. He wasn’t “good” yesterday but he also wasn’t 0% on 11 attempts. As long as he’s not doing that this team is competitive and the answer isn’t that he should just never shoot. That was the point I was making.
Well I'm a glutton for punishment so I did all the games:
| Date | Game | Rutgers Score | Opponent Score | RU Adj | Opp Adj |
10-Nov | Lehigh | 73 | 70 | 78.9 | 72.1 |
13-Nov | Merrimack | 48 | 35 | 50.5 | 45.2 |
16-Nov | NJIT | 75 | 61 | 78.2 | 57.6 |
18-Nov | at DePaul | 70 | 73 | 68.4 | 75.6 |
22-Nov | Lafayette | 51 | 53 | 61.4 | 50.8 |
27-Nov | at Massachusetts | 83 | 85 | 84.1 | 75.6 |
30-Nov | Clemson | 74 | 64 | 75.7 | 68.5 |
3-Dec | at Illinois | 51 | 86 | 49.3 | 83.3 |
9-Dec | Purdue | 70 | 68 | 64.8 | 73.7 |
12-Dec | at Seton Hall | 63 | 77 | 65.8 | 79.3 |
30-Dec | Maine | 80 | 64 | 73.3 | 58.0 |
1-Jan | Central Connecticut | 79 | 48 | 83.7 | 46.9 |
4-Jan | Michigan | 75 | 67 | 70.2 | 70.2 |
8-Jan | Nebraska | 93 | 65 | 81.8 | 65.9 |
11-Jan | at Penn State | 49 | 66 | 54.1 | 65.4 |
15-Jan | at Maryland | 70 | 59 | 65.1 | 60.6 |
19-Jan | Iowa | 48 | 46 | 51.7 | 54.5 |
22-Jan | at Minnesota | 65 | 68 | 58.4 | 58.4 |
25-Jan | Maryland | 60 | 68 | 59.1 | 62.9 |
| Total | 1277 | 1223 | 1274.4 | 1224.5 | |
54 | 49.9 |
The games where the adjusted "winner" is different than the actual winner:
Lafayette - L actual, W adj
at UMass - L actual, W adj
Purdue - W actual, L adj
Michigan - W actual, L adj (note the diff in adj scores is only 0.016 points. But theirs is higher)
Iowa - W actual, L adj
This suggests that we were supposedly lucky overall, but if you are going to count Michigan going from a W to basically a T, I kind of think you need to give credit for Minnesota which goes from a 3 point loss to a 0.054 point loss.
Overall the adjustments bring our scoring margin for the season down from +54 to adj +49.9, which is not much. We've had 1268 possessions this year, so this would change our kenpom rating from +7.31 to +6.99 which would drop us 3 spots from #96 to #99.
Further, our kenpom luck rating is basically 0 (+.005), suggesting that our record is basically what you would expect given our efficiency.
Given we have our expected record given our efficiency, and basically our expected efficiency given the adjustments above, I think it's fair to conclude we have not been lucky or unlucky OVERALL this season.
It's water under the bridge now but I am fairly certain the defensive game plan for Maryland was to have someone other than Ron or Geo beat them. That's why Caleb was seemingly left unguarded on numerous occasions irrespective of the shot clock. And, when they leave you open you should shoot a few times. If you make them you will force the other side to adjust the defense. But, when you don't have the touch, even if you're open, you don't shoot. Unfortunately, Caleb didn't make many and he kept shooting.
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He took the shots the defense was giving him, and the defense was giving him the shots for a reason.
Among players with 10+ min/g, looking at shooting %, McConnell should be the fourth option from 3P range and 8th option from 2P range. Scouting report should be to give him shots and to hope he takes them.
Still, that wasn't the reason we lost (though several of his missed shots contributed to that first half cold streak). Mulcahy only got up 3 shots all game (all from the arc), Baker went 1/6 from 2P range, and Hyatt/Reiber/Mag went 0/6 from inside the arc.... that's not a recipe for success.
Correct - and that was the point I was trying to make. He missed 2 put backs on run outs where he had numbers and missed (one his own rebound and the other a tip from Cliff). If he made the first of each of those he’s instead 6 for 13 with 15 points - nobody would be saying a word about his shots - certainly not shot selection. And we still lose this game. You can blame the first of these sequences for “starting the drought” that set the tone for the game, but that seems like overkill. It was still only one empty possession (with 2 Caleb misses). He checked out of the game after that and we came up empty again on the next 5 possessions.
And their plan worked to perfection. Unfortunately Caleb never passes up an open look, even when his shots haven't been on target all night.
TV announcers having an impact on how a team plays? Or am I not understanding what you posted?
