As I see it, a lot hinges on the outcome of the BE and America East. Assuming Denver & Albany win respectively, I think we are in but it is not a lock. Worst case would be 4 ACC teams grab at large bids. OSU, JHU, PSU & UMD are all in (one AQ and 3 at-large. That leaves one at large. The bubble teams would be RU, the Princeton/Yale, Hofstra/Towson, Army and Villanova. We have the best resume of all of them. Working against us is that the committee may be hesitant to split all the at-large bids between only ACC & B1G. If they decide they don't want to do that, either us or one of the ACC team is getting left out.
If Nova or someone else wins the BE, our path becomes a lot harder because Denver is in regardless. Assuming ACC gets at least 3 at-large and B1G gets 4 (plus AQ), Denver takes one with one which will either go to RU, a 4th ACC or any of the bubble teams listed above less Nova, which would get the BE AQ. If Albany loses the AE you can add them to the mix of bubble teams.