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My hoops prediction of 17-19 wins, this season!

bowlgoal

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Jul 20, 2004
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Not sure how the media has us last but we will need to earn respect so who cares!

Many may say too optimistic or some not happy with 17 wins but if we finish anywhere with the above number of wins we should be in the NIT which is fine by my standards for year two of the Pikiell era. Included in my prediction is 7 wins in the Big 10 which is also a nice increase and I think very attainable.

Caveat: staying healthy is clearly essential for us to reach 17 plus wins.

Reasoning:

Comparing this years team to last years gives me my optimism. We lost Getty’s up front and he gave us some leadership and solid minutes, points and rebounds. I think the scoring and rebounding will be more than made up for with a combination of Doucoure, Shaq and Johnson. I think Doucoure is going to be a monster for us in the next few years but if he can give us the offensive rebounding we need, he will get his points. I also watched him closely at the FT line in the open practice and he’s very solid.

Speaking of FT shooting. We were horrendous last year and lost several games at the FT line. I think and hope we will make a big improvement and that will be a difference maker this season leading to the additional wins. That has to improve to achieve my win total.

The only other player we lost who makes a difference is Nigel. Geo Baker is going to be a special player and I think he will be on the all freshman team this year. Mike Williams, Corey and Thiam will more than make up for Nigel’s points and then some. Remember that mike is now a senior and he knows exactly what the expect and I’m guessing this is Corey’s last season so he needs to shine. Add Soufs speed and maturity, he’s like 22-23 years old and Rutgers has quite a backcourt. Still not sure how to classify Thiam but let’s just say he has the ability to put up 20 points on any given night if he’s open.

The guys who will add the grit and power on defense are Freeman and Omuyuri. Omuyuri is built now like tank and goes after every ball as hard as anyone in the Big 10. You don’t want to be guarded by Eugene as you are going to ache after each And every game. I think the key with Freeman is not trying to do too much. He tends to shoot a lot when there are more options on the court and his real talent is rebounding. Clean the glass and pop in your points that way. When you are double teamed, kick the ball out instead of trying to force a shot. Issue with Feeeman is his size. As long as he stays within his game, his contributions are amazing. He’s not a 3 point shooter although he hit a big one last year.

Surprise player- watch Candido Sa this season. He struggled in Big 10 play but this is year 2 and he worked in the off season. I hope he can make his free throws because he’s all over the court grabbing rebounds and loose balls. Another guy who needs to play within himself and not waste possessions. Possessions are like gold and you have be smart.


Hopefully we pack the RAC and get our fans back this season. I know some of you are back from a few years of not coming. Bring a friend when you come this year and they will want to come back. We should be sold out for every conference game this year. I know we won’t be but I’m saying we should. You will see an offense, multiple looks on defense and hustle like you’ve never seen before from Rutgers!
 
Look it's Bowlgo Al ... related to Rutgers?
Funny but I thought provided some legit reasoning as to why I think this is how we could possibly finish. I haven’t been overly optimistic about football and beyond negative about basketball under Eddie.

I became convinced on Pikiell pretty quickly but had no way of knowing how we would do last year.
 
Not sure how the media has us last but we will need to earn respect so who cares!

Many may say too optimistic or some not happy with 17 wins but if we finish anywhere with the above number of wins we should be in the NIT which is fine by my standards for year two of the Pikiell era. Included in my prediction is 7 wins in the Big 10 which is also a nice increase and I think very attainable.

Caveat: staying healthy is clearly essential for us to reach 17 plus wins.

Reasoning:

Comparing this years team to last years gives me my optimism. We lost Getty’s up front and he gave us some leadership and solid minutes, points and rebounds. I think the scoring and rebounding will be more than made up for with a combination of Doucoure, Shaq and Johnson. I think Doucoure is going to be a monster for us in the next few years but if he can give us the offensive rebounding we need, he will get his points. I also watched him closely at the FT line in the open practice and he’s very solid.

Speaking of FT shooting. We were horrendous last year and lost several games at the FT line. I think and hope we will make a big improvement and that will be a difference maker this season leading to the additional wins. That has to improve to achieve my win total.

The only other player we lost who makes a difference is Nigel. Geo Baker is going to be a special player and I think he will be on the all freshman team this year. Mike Williams, Corey and Thiam will more than make up for Nigel’s points and then some. Remember that mike is now a senior and he knows exactly what the expect and I’m guessing this is Corey’s last season so he needs to shine. Add Soufs speed and maturity, he’s like 22-23 years old and Rutgers has quite a backcourt. Still not sure how to classify Thiam but let’s just say he has the ability to put up 20 points on any given night if he’s open.

The guys who will add the grit and power on defense are Freeman and Omuyuri. Omuyuri is built now like tank and goes after every ball as hard as anyone in the Big 10. You don’t want to be guarded by Eugene as you are going to ache after each And every game. I think the key with Freeman is not trying to do too much. He tends to shoot a lot when there are more options on the court and his real talent is rebounding. Clean the glass and pop in your points that way. When you are double teamed, kick the ball out instead of trying to force a shot. Issue with Feeeman is his size. As long as he stays within his game, his contributions are amazing. He’s not a 3 point shooter although he hit a big one last year.

Surprise player- watch Candido Sa this season. He struggled in Big 10 play but this is year 2 and he worked in the off season. I hope he can make his free throws because he’s all over the court grabbing rebounds and loose balls. Another guy who needs to play within himself and not waste possessions. Possessions are like gold and you have be smart.


Hopefully we pack the RAC and get our fans back this season. I know some of you are back from a few years of not coming. Bring a friend when you come this year and they will want to come back. We should be sold out for every conference game this year. I know we won’t be but I’m saying we should. You will see an offense, multiple looks on defense and hustle like you’ve never seen before from Rutgers!

First of all, I love the optimum! Thank you!
I just renewed my season tickets after a ten year absence. The reason- "In Pikiell I trust"
To me, it's all about the staff. Not just the head coach, which is obviously the MVP, but the whole staff! They sell the program. Pike has the plan, he has the staff, he is getting the players. He will get it done! NIT, NCAA, top ten, and beyond.
 
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We haven’t won in a very long time. When I went to school here, I had bob Wenzel in my freshman year and we went; NCAA, nit, NCAA, nit in my four years. I thought that was normal and would happen very frequently. Little did I know that getting to the NIT would be such a bear in the coming years.

I’ve said Pikiell was the best coach we’ve had here since I’ve been watching and this is just my opinion but it’s not even close. I’m not a player, coach or guru so if you want to disagree with my thoughts, that’s fine. It seems like a bold prediction but actually it’s not too far from where we were last year. If you watched all of our games and looked at the scores and then looked at our free throw misses, you would see how close we were to winning another 3,4 or 5 games.

Bottom line is this. If we improve the free throw shooting, play as intense on defense and rebound like we did last year and we stay very healthy throughout the year, this could be an NIT year and that’s the next step. I wish we had Peter Kiss playing this year because he is going to be outstanding. Add Mathis and Carter next year along with Kiss and that’s another big piece to the puzzle.

I’m pumped and I hope I’m right. One thing for sure is that we are finally on a path upwards.
 
Not sure how the media has us last but we will need to earn respect so who cares!

Many may say too optimistic or some not happy with 17 wins but if we finish anywhere with the above number of wins we should be in the NIT which is fine by my standards for year two of the Pikiell era. Included in my prediction is 7 wins in the Big 10 which is also a nice increase and I think very attainable.

Caveat: staying healthy is clearly essential for us to reach 17 plus wins.

Reasoning:

Comparing this years team to last years gives me my optimism. We lost Getty’s up front and he gave us some leadership and solid minutes, points and rebounds. I think the scoring and rebounding will be more than made up for with a combination of Doucoure, Shaq and Johnson. I think Doucoure is going to be a monster for us in the next few years but if he can give us the offensive rebounding we need, he will get his points. I also watched him closely at the FT line in the open practice and he’s very solid.

Speaking of FT shooting. We were horrendous last year and lost several games at the FT line. I think and hope we will make a big improvement and that will be a difference maker this season leading to the additional wins. That has to improve to achieve my win total.

The only other player we lost who makes a difference is Nigel. Geo Baker is going to be a special player and I think he will be on the all freshman team this year. Mike Williams, Corey and Thiam will more than make up for Nigel’s points and then some. Remember that mike is now a senior and he knows exactly what the expect and I’m guessing this is Corey’s last season so he needs to shine. Add Soufs speed and maturity, he’s like 22-23 years old and Rutgers has quite a backcourt. Still not sure how to classify Thiam but let’s just say he has the ability to put up 20 points on any given night if he’s open.

The guys who will add the grit and power on defense are Freeman and Omuyuri. Omuyuri is built now like tank and goes after every ball as hard as anyone in the Big 10. You don’t want to be guarded by Eugene as you are going to ache after each And every game. I think the key with Freeman is not trying to do too much. He tends to shoot a lot when there are more options on the court and his real talent is rebounding. Clean the glass and pop in your points that way. When you are double teamed, kick the ball out instead of trying to force a shot. Issue with Feeeman is his size. As long as he stays within his game, his contributions are amazing. He’s not a 3 point shooter although he hit a big one last year.

Surprise player- watch Candido Sa this season. He struggled in Big 10 play but this is year 2 and he worked in the off season. I hope he can make his free throws because he’s all over the court grabbing rebounds and loose balls. Another guy who needs to play within himself and not waste possessions. Possessions are like gold and you have be smart.


Hopefully we pack the RAC and get our fans back this season. I know some of you are back from a few years of not coming. Bring a friend when you come this year and they will want to come back. We should be sold out for every conference game this year. I know we won’t be but I’m saying we should. You will see an offense, multiple looks on defense and hustle like you’ve never seen before from Rutgers!
Spot on in my opinion. Great job!
 
bowlgoal,

Not even going through your analysis - maybe another day - your expectation for the NIT is overly optimistic.

The NIT is MUCH tougher to get into than back when you were in college - or even than in the early 2000's. Since the NCAA bought the NIT, they have decreased the number of teams invited to the NIT, and changed the criteria. In particular, there are TWO changes that make it much tougher:

1) All teams that WIN their regular season leagues, lose in those league's post-season tourneys, but do NOT get invited to the NCAA are automatically in the NIT.

2) Home court ability to stuff fans into the seats, and ability to draw in the Semis at MSG, are no longer a material criteria. Rather, RPI becomes a major factor.

So, for example, if RU were to finish 17-14 (does RU play 31 or 30 games this year?) regular season, even if they were to go 1-1 in the Big Ten tourney, it would be unlikely RU would make the NIT at 18-15. RU's OOC is pretty weak, and RU's RPI would seem to be not that strong, even with an 18-15 record. Even if RU was 18-13 regular season, it is not even a gimmie to make the NIT ... I suppose if RU was 18-13 regular season, and won 2 games in the Big Ten tourney to finish 20-14, there might be an okay chance ... but even that is not a gimmie.

That said, I would be totally JAZZED if RU could even go 17-14 regular season. That would be a great coaching job, and a great job by the players, in my opinion. I think RU has 13 OOC games (or is it 12?), of which ALL are at home. Two are against High Major Conference teams (Florida State - an outstanding team last year, and Seton Hall). I suspect RU would be favored in ALL the other games. To get to 17-14, RU would have to win 11 of 13 OOC games (presume a loss to Fla St. and SHU, let's say - though SHU might be beatable), and then go 6-12 in the Big Ten. That would double the Big Ten wins from last season, and be really fun as an RU fan. OR ... if RU went 5-13 in the Big Ten, to finish 17-14 RU would have to beat either Florida State or SHU. I would be okay with that also.

RU's double Big Ten games are against MSU (pre-season the top team in the Big Ten), Purdue (possibly the #2 Big Ten team this year), Nebraska (who beat RU twice last year I think), Ohio State and Illinois. The other teams RU plays 1 time each - and have to play Minny, Michigan, Penn State and Maryland on the road. RU gets NW, Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin at home. Tough slate having to play the top 2 pre-season teams twice each.
 
bowlgoal,

Not even going through your analysis - maybe another day - your expectation for the NIT is overly optimistic.

The NIT is MUCH tougher to get into than back when you were in college - or even than in the early 2000's. Since the NCAA bought the NIT, they have decreased the number of teams invited to the NIT, and changed the criteria. In particular, there are TWO changes that make it much tougher:

1) All teams that WIN their regular season leagues, lose in those league's post-season tourneys, but do NOT get invited to the NCAA are automatically in the NIT.

2) Home court ability to stuff fans into the seats, and ability to draw in the Semis at MSG, are no longer a material criteria. Rather, RPI becomes a major factor.

So, for example, if RU were to finish 17-14 (does RU play 31 or 30 games this year?) regular season, even if they were to go 1-1 in the Big Ten tourney, it would be unlikely RU would make the NIT at 18-15. RU's OOC is pretty weak, and RU's RPI would seem to be not that strong, even with an 18-15 record. Even if RU was 18-13 regular season, it is not even a gimmie to make the NIT ... I suppose if RU was 18-13 regular season, and won 2 games in the Big Ten tourney to finish 20-14, there might be an okay chance ... but even that is not a gimmie.

That said, I would be totally JAZZED if RU could even go 17-14 regular season. That would be a great coaching job, and a great job by the players, in my opinion. I think RU has 13 OOC games (or is it 12?), of which ALL are at home. Two are against High Major Conference teams (Florida State - an outstanding team last year, and Seton Hall). I suspect RU would be favored in ALL the other games. To get to 17-14, RU would have to win 11 of 13 OOC games (presume a loss to Fla St. and SHU, let's say - though SHU might be beatable), and then go 6-12 in the Big Ten. That would double the Big Ten wins from last season, and be really fun as an RU fan. OR ... if RU went 5-13 in the Big Ten, to finish 17-14 RU would have to beat either Florida State or SHU. I would be okay with that also.

RU's double Big Ten games are against MSU (pre-season the top team in the Big Ten), Purdue (possibly the #2 Big Ten team this year), Nebraska (who beat RU twice last year I think), Ohio State and Illinois. The other teams RU plays 1 time each - and have to play Minny, Michigan, Penn State and Maryland on the road. RU gets NW, Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin at home. Tough slate having to play the top 2 pre-season teams twice each.
I respect and read all of your posts. I agree the NIT is harder and 17 wins might not be enough. I guess I was thinking more about when we did qualify with an above .500 record. It’s been such a long drought that I think 17-14 would still be an accomplishment. I guess it depends on the comparison to other available teams? Even though our OOC schedule is pretty weak, I still think a 17 win Rutgers team with our big 10 schedule is a stronger team than most of the teams I’ve watched over the years. The Quincy Douby team that went to the NIT finals played all of the games at the RAC and WVU was the most difficult challenge. That was when the NIT chose Rutgers and gave us a path to MSG.
 
Hawk, I always love your analysis. I must mention though we only played Nebraska once last year and we beat them 65-64. We also beat Illinois the only time we played them and split 2 games with Penn State. This season we play Nebraska and Illinois twice and Penn State once on the road. I think there is a chance we can win 3 of those 5 games. We also play Ohio State twice and we beat them in the BTT in Wash DC last year. If we get a split there we have 4 wins. I think we will get at least one other win as I believe we will get at least one unexpected win at home. That could get us to 5 wins in conference and who knows maybe we could get six. I think we can go 11-2 in the OOC and I honestly believe we can steal a game from either FSU or SHU. Even if we don't we could be 11-2 and 5-13 to get us to 16-15. A winning season would be nice but with a bit of luck we could even do better.
I think Bowlgoal just might be correct. I have followed this team since 1971 when I attended my first RU game. I even watched us with Lloyd and Valvano on TV in the NIT in March of 1967. I think we have an outstanding staff and one I really trust. I hope we can get above the .500 mark and we can make any post season event this season.
 
We were in the basement last year by a lot. On paper we are marginally better in a year where B1G is much better

Good thing games are not played on paper. Something as basic as better foul shooting and we may have had 3 more conference wins last year.

I never make predictions on wins or losses, but, I think we will do well at home this year.
 
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I'm half-in with you. I was beaten to the punch on the NIT, as there's no way in hell a 17-win, or even an 18-win Rutgers with that nonconference slate gets a sniff at the NIT. Just not as many open slots, and they don't hand-deliver trips to the Garden any more.

BUT although I think 17 is a bit high, as the Big Ten looks better this year, it's attainable and would be a wonderful accomplishment for a program in this stage of its development. And it would psychologically be a huge boost not just for the players but for the fan base to see us over .500, because as much as I like Pikiell, most people only look at scores and records.

They will notice 17.
 
How many more season tickets have we sold (or will we sell) this season?
(From this board, sounds like some fans are back on board attending games.)

How much improved will student attendance be?

On average, how much improved will attendance be in general?

Will the RAC be on its way to getting back?


With all the positive buzz and confidence in the staff and the upward trend of the team, will more fans and a more energized RAC help the team get over the hump in some of our close games?

Could that help us squeeze out an extra win or 2?
 
Still not sure we can put up enough points to be optimistic about our chances.

Too many people not giving enough credit to Gettys and Johnson. I think the guys we "replaced" them with over the long term will be better players but I don't think they will be adequate replacments as true freshman.

And of course who is going to score points for us? Corey will get his--can we count on him to score more than 13/game?After that where are the points coming from? I see lots of possibilities but very little that we can, as of today, count on.

I look at basketball scoring the same way as I look at our FB offense--show me the money. I won't believe we can score enough until we start scoring enough

This is not to say we aren't on the way. It's hard not to be happy about where Pike has this program headed. I just think we are still digging out of the very deep hole we were left in
 
Still not sure we can put up enough points to be optimistic about our chances.

Too many people not giving enough credit to Gettys and Johnson. I think the guys we "replaced" them with over the long term will be better players but I don't think they will be adequate replacments as true freshman.

And of course who is going to score points for us? Corey will get his--can we count on him to score more than 13/game?After that where are the points coming from? I see lots of possibilities but very little that we can, as of today, count on.

I look at basketball scoring the same way as I look at our FB offense--show me the money. I won't believe we can score enough until we start scoring enough

This is not to say we aren't on the way. It's hard not to be happy about where Pike has this program headed. I just think we are still digging out of the very deep hole we were left in


Maybe I am nuts, but I am less concerned about the loss of Nigel Johnson than of Gettys. You never knew what you would get out of Johnson offensiveyly, from game to game. And as I have written about (and analyzed) he had about twice as many games where he was a negative contributor than where he was a positive contributor.

Gettys had real limitations, but was a very big positive for the team more often than not. In some ways he should not be difficult to replace because of his limitations, but replacing a 5th year Senior big man with 2 Frosh big men is sometimes difficult.

So I worry about front court depth more than replacing Nigel Johnson. I think improvement from Sanders, Williams, Thiam, Omoruyi, plus adding Mensah and Baker seems like a more easily replacement for losing Johnson, than Doucore and M. Johnson, plus improvement from Sa (and maybe Omoruyi) might be for replacing Gettys. If Doorson was fully healthy ... that might be different. But he is not.
 
Gettys jazzed up the crowd, and presumably the team. That will be missed. Tend to think this team is a year away--maybe two years away. If we show improvement, encouraging the guy that already signed up for 2018 not to renege, and encouraging recruiting targets to think they could be in near the start of a program on the rise--- We have to see what we have before making predictions. 16-15 would be fine. 16-15 and beating SHU would be finer.
TL
 
I see 22 wins this year. They will be a much better quicker team this year. I think VS averages 20 pts a game this year
 
I think Rutgers is in for a 16 win+ season.

Scoring will be lead by Sanders, Freeman, and Williams.

This roster got more versatile this year. I foresee more running, and Sanders getting more looks off the ball.
 
bowlgoal,

Not even going through your analysis - maybe another day - your expectation for the NIT is overly optimistic.

The NIT is MUCH tougher to get into than back when you were in college - or even than in the early 2000's. Since the NCAA bought the NIT, they have decreased the number of teams invited to the NIT, and changed the criteria. In particular, there are TWO changes that make it much tougher:

1) All teams that WIN their regular season leagues, lose in those league's post-season tourneys, but do NOT get invited to the NCAA are automatically in the NIT.

2) Home court ability to stuff fans into the seats, and ability to draw in the Semis at MSG, are no longer a material criteria. Rather, RPI becomes a major factor.

So, for example, if RU were to finish 17-14 (does RU play 31 or 30 games this year?) regular season, even if they were to go 1-1 in the Big Ten tourney, it would be unlikely RU would make the NIT at 18-15. RU's OOC is pretty weak, and RU's RPI would seem to be not that strong, even with an 18-15 record. Even if RU was 18-13 regular season, it is not even a gimmie to make the NIT ... I suppose if RU was 18-13 regular season, and won 2 games in the Big Ten tourney to finish 20-14, there might be an okay chance ... but even that is not a gimmie.

That said, I would be totally JAZZED if RU could even go 17-14 regular season. That would be a great coaching job, and a great job by the players, in my opinion. I think RU has 13 OOC games (or is it 12?), of which ALL are at home. Two are against High Major Conference teams (Florida State - an outstanding team last year, and Seton Hall). I suspect RU would be favored in ALL the other games. To get to 17-14, RU would have to win 11 of 13 OOC games (presume a loss to Fla St. and SHU, let's say - though SHU might be beatable), and then go 6-12 in the Big Ten. That would double the Big Ten wins from last season, and be really fun as an RU fan. OR ... if RU went 5-13 in the Big Ten, to finish 17-14 RU would have to beat either Florida State or SHU. I would be okay with that also.

RU's double Big Ten games are against MSU (pre-season the top team in the Big Ten), Purdue (possibly the #2 Big Ten team this year), Nebraska (who beat RU twice last year I think), Ohio State and Illinois. The other teams RU plays 1 time each - and have to play Minny, Michigan, Penn State and Maryland on the road. RU gets NW, Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin at home. Tough slate having to play the top 2 pre-season teams twice each.
Maybe we need to shoot for the NCAA’s if the NIT is so hard to get into.
 
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If Doucore makes 2 putbacks and 4 foul shots per game he replaces CJ's scoring.

If Baker makes 1 three-pointer, 2 layups and 3 foul shots per game, he replaces Nigel's scoring.
 
If Doucore makes 2 putbacks and 4 foul shots per game he replaces CJ's scoring.

If Baker makes 1 three-pointer, 2 layups and 3 foul shots per game, he replaces Nigel's scoring.

If you stretch it out over the year yes. Nigel had some not some great games but we may not have won the last 2 if not for him.

Gettys did a LOT for us that didn't show up in the statistics. He altered a TON of shots and deterred countless more.
 
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All true Patrick, just responded to where the points may come from. We may also get other intangibles from Mamadou and Geo as well.
 
Educate me. Rutgers has been at the bottom every year in the B10 and I don't pay attention to Rutgers a lot, but I like to stay informed when talking about programs. If you only won 7 games las year and lost one of your best players, how are you supposed to win more twice you won last year, with most of them being against cupcakes? That's why everybody has you guys as last again (from an outsiders perspective)
My prediction would be a 10-13 win season with you guys, and CIT bound
 
Educate me. Rutgers has been at the bottom every year in the B10 and I don't pay attention to Rutgers a lot, but I like to stay informed when talking about programs. If you only won 7 games las year and lost one of your best players, how are you supposed to win more twice you won last year, with most of them being against cupcakes? That's why everybody has you guys as last again (from an outsiders perspective)
My prediction would be a 10-13 win season with you guys, and CIT bound

As Duff said RU won 15 games last year (though only 3 in the regular season of the Big Ten play - plus a Big Ten tourney win) ... RU won just 7 games TWO years ago.

Plus, RU did NOT lose one of their best players from last year: RU returns its 2 best players (Sanders and Freeman). It IS true RU's 2nd leading scorer transferred as a grad transfer to UVA, but he was extremely inconsistent (twice as many games where he was actually performed poorly - not merely not great - as games where he was a positive impact) offensively, and was benched for large chunks of a number of games due to lack-luster defense.

While some are worried about that player's loss, a number of other fans on this Board think RU might be better off with the 2 new guards coming in replacing the guard who transferred.
 
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As Duff said RU won 15 games last year (though only 3 in the regular season of the Big Ten play - plus a Big Ten tourney win) ... RU won just 7 games TWO years ago.

Plus, RU did NOT lose one of their best players from last year: RU returns its 2 best players (Sanders and Freeman). It IS true RU's 2nd leading scorer transferred as a grad transfer to UVA, but he was extremely inconsistent (twice as many games where he was actually performed poorly - not merely not great - as games where he was a positive impact) offensively, and was benched for large chunks of a number of games due to lack-luster defense.

While some are worried about that player's loss, a number of other fans on this Board think RU might be better off with the 2 new guards coming in replacing the guard who transferred.
Alright. Do you think you'll make the NCAA tourney in 18'?
 
I doubt it but I think we will have a winning season. If so I would think we would play in the CBI with a very slight shot at the NIT.
 
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