February is arriving: Simply put, how much we score will determine our season

[Scarlet Shack]

It’s really that Simple

As much as I have been unhappy with some of the play of our defense over the season at times, it’s still been pretty good

The reality is we are 11-8 because

-We lost three games to teams below us in the standings in the big ten and then that awful Lafayette game holding teams to under 70 points because we didn’t score enough

-even in victory , we won our last two big ten games scoring less than 70, plus has to beat NJIT and Lehigh while scoring less than 70 (Lehigh web to OT to get over 70)

I know defense and rebounding is our identity from our head coach, but it’s really as simple as will we make enough shots to win enough games to make the NCAA . Out of 20 games, only four (Illinois, seton hall , DePaul and umass, all before January 1) did we lose a game with an opponent scoring 70 points

Got to find ways to manufacturer points and cheap points at times . Got to get to the line . Got to not waste fast break opportunities . Got to take guys out who aren’t getting it done on offense the same as on defense. Playing the bench so we don’t have dead legs in the last 8 playing

This isn’t earth shattering information ...it’s just as simple as will we do it...or not

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

My computers are saying what you are saying. Our offense has been bad despite Harper shooting 43% from 3. I just don’t know how we are going to be better other than to hope Baker and Harper make their shots and Paul hits wide open 3s.

 

[winfield102]

Then we are in trouble. We don't get to the line and we aren't good on the break (we also seem to do it a lot less this year).

 

[richthedentist]

Then we are in trouble. We don't get to the line and we aren't good on the break (we also seem to do it a lot less this year).

To add we have no inside game unless Cliff dunks the ball he can’t make a layup

 

[RUBigJ]

We have to improve our scoring around the rim and in 2 point range. Percentages there are too low.

 

[Yeah Baby]

Agree with all of the above. I think we need to average in the high 60’s and continue with our tough D. Cliff is making good moves. He just needs to finish and it’s really just a touch thing. He has improved everywhere else so why not here?

Greene is right about relying on RHJ and I do see the team making an effort to score without Ron and Geo early in games. Mag presents matchup problems when in the game as does RHJ. Maybe pull Cliff out a little and if they leave him open he does show a pretty nice touch on the 10-15 ft shots. It seems we have tried a lot of different looks and it comes down to everyone making shots or most guys. It making shots game to game. Somewhere in the middle for the rest of the season would be ideal.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Dn't know the meaning or accuracy of a bart close 2. Geo is 10 of 17 this year. Jacob was 75-128

 

[S_Janowski]

We need to make it a point to get Harper involved often and get him involved early. That’s the key to the rest of the season imo.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Does anyone have any good strategies for winning stratego when all you have is a 3,6,7,9 and no spy and your opponent still has his/her 1,2,5,6,8s, and 9?

 

[RUJMM78]

Scoring above Rutgers norm will be difficult because of the competition in February .Harper and Baker will need to score over 35 points a game to upset higher ranked league rivals.Opponents know that which puts added pressure on the rest of the team to score.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

This is the reality of this year's team. they are a young talented team overall learning on the job and inconsistent till this point. Very reminiscent of Purdue last year playing 4 Freshman in key roles, struggled to beat 10-18 Valparaiso at home and lost @ 10-17 Miami(Fla). Purdue blew a 17 pt lead, 44-27 like we did @UMass, lost 54-58, if there were more Non conference, Purdue might have had a Lafayette loss. There is nothing Pikiell can do to speed up the learning experience process.

First 4.years(contributed more than 1pt per game)
2016-17 14-17(1-1) 1 Sr, 4 Jr, 3 So, 2 Fr (5 up, 5 und)
2017-18 13-18(2-1) 3 Sr, 2 Jr, 3 So, 2.Fr (5 up, 5 und)
2018-19 14-16(0-1) 1 Sr, 3 Jr, 2 So, 4 Fr (4 up, 6 und)
2019-20 20-11(0-0) 2 Sr, 3 Jr, 4 So, 1 Fr (5 up, 5 und)
2020-21 14-10(1-1,1-1) 3 Sr, 4 Jr, 1 So, 5 Fr (7up, 6 und)1st time 13 ships

With the extra year & transfers
2021-22 12-8(?-?)
Technically 2 5th, 2 Sr, 2 Jr, 5 So, 1 Fr(6up/6und)
Actual 2 5th, 1 Sr, 2 Jr, 2 So, 5 Fr. (4up(*5)/7und)
(Geo,*Ralph*),(Ron),(Caleb,Paul),(Cliff,Hyatt)

Jalen 112 career minutes, Oskar 136, Dean 191, Mawot 280, Jaden 186
(905 total minutes between 5 players)
Cliff 343 Fr(885 career), feels like the only legit sophomore.
Geo 1044 Freshman(4218) Ron 690 Fr(3090)
Caleb 481 Fr(2158), Paul 563 Fr(1937), Hyatt 700 min/LSU(1003)
Hyatt is closer to a Sophomore than Jr., even though 3rd year.
Ralph is the new Doucoure, great locker room guy.

That's 7 of 11 players that are more underclassmen than upper, Good with the bad this year, 21-22, but it will pay off next year, 22-23, like Purdue in 2020-21 to 2021-22. They started 7-5(2-3), won 11 of their last 14 B1G games(11-3), before losing first B1G tourny vs more experienced tOSU and 1st round NCAAs vs more experienced North Texas(0-2), finished 18-10, 21-22, 18-3. They have won 29 of their last 37 games. That is the reality of our situation.

 

[richthedentist]

Agree with all of the above. I think we need to average in the high 60’s and continue with our tough D. Cliff is making good moves. He just needs to finish and it’s really just a touch thing. He has improved everywhere else so why not here?

Greene is right about relying on RHJ and I do see the team making an effort to score without Ron and Geo early in games. Mag presents matchup problems when in the game as does RHJ. Maybe pull Cliff out a little and if they leave him open he does show a pretty nice touch on the 10-15 ft shots. It seems we have tried a lot of different looks and it comes down to everyone making shots or most guys. It making shots game to game. Somewhere in the middle for the rest of the season would be ideal.

Cliff has a way better touch on the 10-15 footers than on 1 footers that isn't even up for debate; he can't make a layup unless its a dunk

 

[RedTeam1994]

I dont think its as simple as scoring.

I agree that scoring is the most important matter - i.e., no way we are beating any of those teams if we dont score effectively and often

defense will be key too. we play D like we did against Iowa and obviously that will give us a chance to win ANY of these games. but we play defense like we have the first 10 minutes of the last few games and we have virtually zero chance

 

[goru7]

It’s really that Simple

As much as I have been unhappy with some of the play of our defense over the season at times, it’s still been pretty good

The reality is we are 11-8 because

-We lost three games to teams below us in the standings in the big ten and then that awful Lafayette game holding teams to under 70 points because we didn’t score enough

-even in victory , we won our last two big ten games scoring less than 70, plus has to beat NJIT and Lehigh while scoring less than 70 (Lehigh web to OT to get over 70)

I know defense and rebounding is our identity from our head coach, but it’s really as simple as will we make enough shots to win enough games to make the NCAA . Out of 20 games, only four (Illinois, seton hall , DePaul and umass, all before January 1) did we lose a game with an opponent scoring 70 points

Got to find ways to manufacturer points and cheap points at times . Got to get to the line . Got to not waste fast break opportunities . Got to take guys out who aren’t getting it done on offense the same as on defense. Playing the bench so we don’t have dead legs in the last 8 playing

This isn’t earth shattering information ...it’s just as simple as will we do it...or not

Shack , you want our chances of winning to increase a lot and blow away the Kenpom predictions , do 2 simple things.
1) score 70 points , we have discussed in other threads how to;
2) Do not give up more than 7 three point makes a game; we have discussed the wins when we hold teams to 7 or less . Pike has said he has not done a good job of making our defense travel , and now it is time to insure it does.
We have 4 of the 8 straight Quad 1 games at home , which should help immensely . It would be nice to get consistent down the stretch here.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Shack , you want our chances of winning to increase a lot and blow away the Kenpom predictions , do 2 simple things.
1) score 70 points , we have discussed in other threads how to;
2) Do not give up more than 7 three point makes a game; we have discussed the wins when we hold teams to 7 or less . Pike has said he has not done a good job of making our defense travel , and now it is time to insure it does.
We have 4 of the 8 straight Quad 1 games at home , which should help immensely . It would be nice to get consistent down the stretch here.

Of course ...very much

 

[ClassOf02]

One of two things has to happen.

1) we figure out a way to improve our 2 pt FG percentage
2) we shoot above our heads from 3

IMO, both are low probability outcomes, but #2 is more likely. I think the formula is play tough D, rebound (this needs improvement too), and hope we should the 3 above our heads.

Of course, this means we will not be getting to the foul line all that often.

I don’t see a scenario as the team is currently put together where we’re going to all of a sudden get more production on 2 pt FG %.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Someone posted a stat site showing our low percentage of 3s and at the rim shots.

We start 2 guys that we don't want to take a wide open 3 and a 3rd only to shoot if he is wide open.
Our 2nd best offensive scorer is a guard who has taken only 17 shots near the rim all year

All these ideas are great, but nothing is changing why we are bad offensively. This is not Pike the X and Os coach guy's fault. Blame Pike's other responsibility.

We want to average 70? Look at Classof02 point #2

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I don’t see a scenario as the team is currently put together where we’re going to all of a sudden get more production on 2 pt FG %.

use the bench more....OREB a little better by being fresh and giving minutes to those that OREB....OREB putback opportunities will raise the 2 pt FG%.

All of this not enough to move the offensive needle all that much, but it could improve the 2 pt FG%

use the bench more is code for play Mag

 

[goru7]

One of two things has to happen.

1) we figure out a way to improve our 2 pt FG percentage
2) we shoot above our heads from 3

IMO, both are low probability outcomes, but #2 is more likely. I think the formula is play tough D, rebound (this needs improvement too), and hope we should the 3 above our heads.

Of course, this means we will not be getting to the foul line all that often.

I don’t see a scenario as the team is currently put together where we’re going to all of a sudden get more production on 2 pt FG %.

3 or even 4 of our starters should be able to improve from 2 point range. Geo can just elevate for a foul line jumper over almost every guard in the league and his % should be better. Now that is finally taking more shots 15 + a game compared to earlier taking 5-8 per game , he should cut down on his 3 point attempts and hit 5 from the foul line or foul line extended area or drive more to get fouled or fish when the big comes to help


Paul gets the ball in the middle against the zone and should hit the 13 foot jumper and then when he is doing his slow backing in , looking more to pass, he should be looking to shoot more since Cliff is already underneath for the offensive rebound . He like all our players should use the glass and bank shot a lot more.

Caleb used to be MR. midrange and had a sweet stroke from 10-14 feet. Do not know what has happened to him this year, from the early season yips, to the numerous air balls , but he has to stop thinking too much and make a move and let it go. His 2pt % should go up the most.

Lastly , Cliff has not mastered his short semi hook shot yet and missed a ton of makeable shots. His next step is to get the ball on the block and take a hard first step and dribble past his man for an easier shot. He can also turn and hit the 10-12 foot shot as he can make that shot. Both will improve his 2 point %.

On the other hand , we couldn’t continue to shoot like we did during the winning streak and some of our wins. Ron was not going to stay at 62.5% in conference games until this recent 3 game funk. We hit 5-9 we will be ok.

More importantly , we cannot give up more than 7 three pointers defensively as we have won 7 of our 12 games that way and even in the Seton Hall and Penn State games where we gave up 5 and 6 , we played like crap almost the whole game but with 6-7 minutes left we’re only down 6-8 points until we closed badly. Still had a chance despite the crappy play .

 

[Yeah Baby]

Cliff has a way better touch on the 10-15 footers than on 1 footers that isn't even up for debate; he can't make a layup unless its a dunk

He hasn’t which is different than can’t. Many said he couldn’t catch but that’s gotten much better. He’s made great strides as a shot blocker and rebounder and defender. This I think is the next step for him. I can’t wait.

 

[Scangg]

We need to crash the offensive boards hard. Whenever we do we look better and play with more energy overall. Get some second chance points off all these misses

More Cliff 10-15 footers. He's still being given that shot and has a much better chance of making it than his hook. This will also open up driving lanes for other players

Better ball and player movement. We saw it earlier when we were hot and have gotten away from it

Geo and Ron need to show up regularly

 

[Yeah Baby]

We need to make it a point to get Harper involved often and get him involved early. That’s the key to the rest of the season imo.

It seems like we are doing the opposite. We’re trying to get others involved because being one dimensional is too easy to defend.