But I do see 5 kickoff returns for 105 yards for SUNY and 6 kickoff returns for 136 yards for North Central. That would be too much return activity for our fans to watch.The box score says…
Crazy..
Yes
Horrible take
Horrible take my ass. If they think they are more likely to convert than not, then why did they not go for two on any of their other touchdowns? Because it wasn't worth the risk? Well then if it's too risky, why would you go for it when (and ONLY when) failure to convert loses you the game?
I'll admit I have not, and I normally don't pretend to know more than the coaches like a lot of people do, but you don't gotta be Vince Lombardi to understand that most two-point conversions are unsuccessful. The conversion rate is about 40%, so going for it only increased the likelihood of them losing, and that is exactly what happened.
Yet these coaches at every level do it over and over again. Because at that point they feel they have the momentum. Same thing happened last Weekend in FCS quarterfinals. Furman scored with a few seconds left. Went for two but went offsides. Kicked the XP and then lost in OT.
Yes. Sometimes teams are gassed and maybe NC coaches thought that they had to win it right then and there.
Until recently it was very rare to go for it on 4th and 1 despite the data showing that you should, so something being conventional doesn't mean it is correct. That Furman play is a terrible example, sure the play didn't fully pan out because of the flag, but that play appeared to be going nowhere. It if wasn't for the false start, they would have been another example of a team losing by going for 2 at the riskiest possible time. However, I will say that at least in that game, there was such little time left that converting does at least seemingly clinch a win. Cortland going for 2 didn't even have the upside of sealing a victory, they still had to stop North Central with 1:20 either way. The downside of sealing a loss far outweighed the upside.
I suspect even with only 40% odds there are times when going for 2 might outweigh taking it to overtime. And some teams probably have better than 40% odds. But that's with like 5 seconds left. In this case, as you say, with 1:20 on the clock, you are just shooting yourself in the foot. I imagine it's similar to playing poker....sometimes you just really want to go all in and get it over with. But as a professional coach, you have to know better.
Cortland scored 35 points in the second half, but North Central scored 30 (most likely would have been 31 with the XP). Each team scored on five of six drives in the second half and the only difference was one of North Central's was a field goal instead of a touchdown, and even that drive made it to the 7 yard line, so those numbers are pretty even. Now before you make the argument that since you've scored on your last five drives, it makes sense to go for two, I'd argue that this is even more of a case to take it to overtime because stopping a drive is more difficult than stopping one play.
It closer to 50%. Actually 48.2%. It was a great move by the head coach. He had a chance to win the game when the other team did not. In OT everyone gets a chance. And after a few rounds you are forced to go for 2point conversion only.
Where did you find that statistic? When I looked it up I found an article from a couple months ago that says NCAA 2-point conversion success rates range from 40.5% to 42.7%, but it didn't cite any sources so if you have something more credible I'd like to see it.
Fine then ignore the analogy. The point is they created a situation where the only team that could win the game on that play was their opponent, and it was at least a 50% chance of that happening.
And with that much time left you would hope the other team would need a TD instead of only a FG to beat you.
