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OT: Consequences of Corona - Americans leave large cities for suburban areas and rural towns

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I'm sure it will take a bit of a hit (already has, I think), but 3-4, 10 years from now? Don't know. The future is hard to predict and if I was any good at it I'd have bought in JC 15 years before I did (as would have all the people who are now so very, very certain of what the future holds).

The SALT cap was definitely doing damage and this won't be helpful. I think it probably depends on if/when workplaces in NYC reopen and what that looks like. If I didn't have to return to my office I might consider selling and splitting between a cheaper place here and one at the Shore.
 
Remember when we all said after 9/11 we'd never fly again?


The cities will make a comeback. They always do. People want to be together, share ideas, cultures. Seriously, to hook up and procreate. It's what we do.
Moz I think you are going to be surprised that what some suspect at a regrouping or revitalization if cities... unless a “ new “ government rebuilds all those cities with other people’s money ( taxes) it will be difficult ... I remember NYC during David Dinkins and Ed ( How ‘ m I Doing? ) Koch... dirty , filthy , unsafe and it did keep people away for it’s seediness... It took Newark and Detroit 35-40 years to begin the transitions back... today with the things going on ... it will be much different.
 
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No, you talking about NJ specifically and mentioning COAH was an attempt to drag the conversation into an area we were not previously discussing, so I ignored it and stayed on topic.

It's also baloney as plenty of other states have similar mandates to NJ in terms of affordable housing.
 
See you got caught... all YOU need to do is google it... tells you exactly through 2019 the cost.., to me 60-80 is not worth it unless you are in a field such as perhaps engineering, finance/ banking, medical /science and even those will not be an assured thing in the near future...
caught in what? 45k is more affordable than 60k.

you still haven't answered the question about where's your proof that foreign nationals are buying up ALLL the property.
 
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Moz I think you are going to be surprised that what some suspect at a regrouping or revitalization if cities... unless a “ new “ government rebuilds all those cities with other people’s money ( taxes) it will be difficult ... I remember NYC during David Dinkins and Ed ( How ‘ m I Doing? ) Koch... dirty , filthy , unsafe and it did keep people away for it’s seediness... It took Newark and Detroit 35-40 years to begin the transitions back... today with the things going on ... it will be much different.

If places like NYC and LA need to be rebuilt with 'other people's money' it will be fair payback for making the rural living everyone seems to love so much possible, as rural areas are net takers.

Everything is connected, and if some area need helps at one point in time there should be little talk about 'other people's money' as it leads to things like NJ not getting money for a tunnel from the feds despite massively subsidizing the rest of the country for decades. The worm always turns.
 
To switch the subject for a moment, I mentioned in another thread that I have a close friend in the Minneapolis/St Paul area who is very active in business and civic affairs. She has stated that not only are people fleeing, or planning to flee that metro area, but, more importantly, major businesses are drawing up plans to relocate. This, IMO, could be extremely significant.
 
Yes NJ cities are so terrible

Average Home Price in the past month:

Hoboken 868K
Jersey City 07302 749K
Asbury Park 475K
Long Branch 530K
Harrison 737K

For people who profess a love for capitalism they sure have a lot of disagreement with the results of it.
 
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To switch the subject for a moment, I mentioned in another thread that I have a close friend in the Minneapolis/St Paul area who is very active in business and civic affairs. She has stated that not only are people fleeing, or planning to flee that metro area, but, more importantly, major businesses are drawing up plans to relocate. This, IMO, could be extremely significant.
+1
Get ready for the mass exodus (people and businesses), which is the point of the original article that I posted.
 
4 of my friends (who happen to be parents of newborns) have left NYC in the last 2 months... for other cities. They moved to Austin, TX, Portland, OR, Richmond, VA and Jacksonville, FL. Many leaving NYC are moving to more affordable cities, not the sticks. They’re doing it because the actual benefits and conveniences of living in a $3K a month apartment in NYC have been closed by Covid. They will continue to make a NYC salary in these places, might I add, by working remotely. The non-existent threats listed in this thread had nothing to do with it.
And when their office opens back up how will they continue to live in those cities while making NYC salary?
 
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No , I didn’t say that but I know first hand this tidbit....foreign born families purchase homes in the Bay Area. As for not being high priced? Cal Berkeley tuition /Room and Board runs around 40 + k . .. Most kids can’t afford that price ....to me that is a high priced university... many in state and even out of state get a discount. Show my work? ... take it or leave it...It’s happening and is actually quite common in many states...
Cal Berkeley tuition and board is $69k a year. With foreign students being pushed out of the United State, the universities will need to come up with some real scheme to keep school affordable for US students. The loss of revenue will be from $200-400 million per school since many school have 12-18% of international students. College will not be the same in the near future. This can all change with the November election. It might be easier to get into the school with 12% more opening but the price might be $100k a year.

Foreigners, especially Asians, have always been buying US properties in SF, LA and NY and probably near schools where their kids are attending to give them access to visas, citizenship and green cards. This has also changed the last few years and they are no longer buying in the US because they have been chased away. NY, SF and LA properties were already dropping because foreigners have lost their interest. Real estate will not be the same in the near future. This can all change with the November election.

A sales manager at my last radio station purchased a home near where her kid went to school but she already owned other rental property. She could afford it with 200k+ income not including her husband.
 
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I was talking the NYC area and cities in general, not just NJ cities (honestly NJ has no real cities of it's own outside of Newark, JC anyway and even those are barely cities.)

My post makes no sense, but your point is basically no one wants to live in cities in general, not just Paterson, yet cities are both crowded and expensive in many areas, which would seem to indicate that people do want to live there.

Edit: if your point is there are some crappy cities no one wants to live in, I agree, but that doesn't generalize any more than pointing out there are crappy suburbs and rural areas where no one wants to live as well.
By the way look at median home values of NJ cities:

Newark = $250k
JC = $362k
Trenton = $95k
Camden = $82k
Paterson = $238k

None of these come close to a nice NJ suburban town. Based on 2019 American Community Survey census data:
https://www.towncharts.com/New-Jersey/New-Jersey-city-index-Housing-data.html
 
By the way look at median home values of NJ cities:

Newark = $250k
JC = $362k
Trenton = $95k
Camden = $82k
Paterson = $238k

None of these come close to a nice NJ suburban town. Based on 2019 American Community Survey census data:
https://www.towncharts.com/New-Jersey/New-Jersey-city-index-Housing-data.html
No matter how many times you want to talk about certain small NJ vs the NYC area and large cities (the topic of the thread) I am going to continue to ignore you.

Still, a couple of points:

Median home value, when a large percentage of cities are small condos is perhaps not the correct measure of comparison.
Also nice how you also compared to 'nice suburban towns.'
 
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By the way look at median home values of NJ cities:

Newark = $250k
JC = $362k
Trenton = $95k
Camden = $82k
Paterson = $238k

None of these come close to a nice NJ suburban town. Based on 2019 American Community Survey census data:
https://www.towncharts.com/New-Jersey/New-Jersey-city-index-Housing-data.html
JC and Newark are huge Areas and there are nice areas and not so nice. When you compare with towns, the majority of houses in town are in the same price range.
 
No matter how many times you want to talk about certain small NJ vs the NYC area and large cities (the topic of the thread) I am going to continue to ignore you.

Still, a couple of points:

Median home value, when a large percentage of cities are small condos is perhaps not the correct measure of comparison.
Also nice how you also compared to 'nice suburban towns.'
I know why you refuse to talk about NJ (since it's a no win conversation for you). So let's end this with.....let's see what happens. There is a lot of signs that people and companies will be leaving urban centers in NJ and the entire country for the reasons previously discussed. Time will tell.
 
JC and Newark are huge Areas and there are nice areas and not so nice. When you compare with towns, the majority of houses in town are in the same price range.
The data shows that there are many more "not so nice" areas compared to "nice" areas in NJ cities. Agreed?
 
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I know why you refuse to talk about NJ (since it's a no win conversation for you). So let's end this with.....let's see what happens. There is a lot of signs that people and companies will be leaving urban centers in NJ and the entire country for the reasons previously discussed. Time will tell.

I refuse to talk about it because it has nothing to do with the original topic or any point I have made on this thread. That you keep steering the conversation there in the face of my making no statement about NJ small cities says a hell of a lot more about you than me.
 
The data shows that there are many more "not so nice" areas compared to "nice" areas in NJ cities. Agreed?
True, but I drove thru Newark recently and I’m amazed at the residential construction going up around downtown and around Rutgers Newark. However, they didn’t anticipate the coronavirus when they started construction. I hope they survive the virus.
 
True, but I drove thru Newark recently and I’m amazed at the residential construction going up around downtown and around Rutgers Newark. However, they didn’t anticipate the coronavirus when they started construction. I hope they survive the virus.
There will be a ton of delayed/abandoned construction throughout the state. I bet NJ cities will be hit the hardest.
 
Depends how you look at that. Rural areas provide much of the outdoor recreation in America. Wildlife and Fish habitat. Watershed value. Carbon sinks. Food. Wood. Minerals. Etc.
No doubt, but for the people who live in those areas... The infrastructure taken to support their living there is not nearly paid for by the people or activities in those areas.

I have absolutely no problem with those subsidies, that's how a society/country should function. It just irks me when people talk about having to bail out cities, or deny construction projects/disaster relief to areas that have made the entire existence of rural America sustainable.
 
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No doubt, but for the people who live in those areas... The infrastructure taken to support their living there is not nearly paid for by the people or activities in those areas.

I have absolutely no problem with those subsidies, that's how a society/country should function. It just irks me when people talk about having to bail out cities, or deny construction projects/disaster relief to areas that have made the entire existence of rural America sustainable.
farm subsidies anyone?
 
The SALT cap was definitely doing damage and this won't be helpful. I think it probably depends on if/when workplaces in NYC reopen and what that looks like. If I didn't have to return to my office I might consider selling and splitting between a cheaper place here and one at the Shore.
Ease of commute is one of my major factors so I've always stayed in or as close as possible to big city. Thats the life i know and the work i do/daily life is all based in those major spots and not available in suburbs.
I agree with you. There might be a trend on people selling/getting out of town to bigger spaces but until all the big companies start officially giving up their offices, i dont think it will be catastrophic RE market-wise.
I def see more listings with price drops and less going for over-asking but havent seen anything price wise that would seem to throw someones life off course. Unfortunately per my note below if I need to move to LA EOY/early 2021, I'm hoping to not lose too much if i need to sell my hob. apt within the next few months. I dont want to be a landlord but also curious if the rental costs will stick as is better than for-sale costs.

We have an income property in Beverly Hills we are looking to sell now, though I'd rent it out too. My agent said it's getting a ton of interest from people in NY, which would normally be very odd. Not sure why you'd move here from NYC at this point. Probably work reasons I guess outside of wanting more space and to not be on top of each other.
My boss just moved to LA from NYC (for work reasons) and so now I'm in this exact boat-----i can move to LA or stay here and switch jobs within the office. Oddly the WFH situation thankfully has given me til the end of the year/early next to figure out if i want to live out there (looking at MarinaDelRey or something Westside since new office would be Ivy Station/Culver City).
Interestingly enough I have been drawn to Glacier NP for a few yrs now (hopefully going soon) so always looking at what life would be like living over there in MT----but in the whitefish/columbia falls/bigfork/kalispell areas (although I've never personally been there to have specific info).
 
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Suburbs don't build up, they build out and not necessarily in concentric circles. Those woods and fields become less and less as the roads and buildings become more and more. In those areas schools can't keep up with the growth and turn into trailer parks.

For those moving from the cities, be careful what you wish for.
 
Depends how you look at that. Rural areas provide much of the outdoor recreation in America. Wildlife and Fish habitat. Watershed value. Carbon sinks. Food. Wood. Minerals. Etc.
He better not be saying "rural" and meaning every non-urban situation. The rural communities will not be paying enough to rebuild cities.. it will be up to the taxpayers in the 'burbs.. just like they have been taxed to support the failed cities they fled 50 years ago.

They built the cities.. the rioters and looters and criminals destroyed the cities.. they fled the cities and now they have to pay to rebuild them?

How about stopping all the crime and rioting and looting?

A city sees a guy killed by cops a thousand miles away.. they riot and loot and attack police making their city MORE dangerous and suburban taxpayers must pay for that? That's insanity.
 
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He better not be saying "rural" and meaning every non-urban situation. The rural communities will not be paying enough to rebuild cities.. it will be up to the taxpayers in the 'burbs.. juts like they have been taxed to support the cities they fled 50 years ago.

They built the cities.. the rioters and looters and criminals destroyed the cities.. they fled the cities and now they have to pay to rebuild them?

How about stopping all the crime and rioting and looting?

A city sees a guy killed by cops a thousand miles away.. they riot and loot and attack police making their city MORE dangerous and suburban taxpayers must pay for that? That's insanity.
You do realize a place like NYC subsidizes the rest of the state, and not the other way around. And NY state as whole subsidizes other states so, in no way are suburbs paying for NYC, at any level.
 
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out west is a different animal. the cities there seem to be built around expansion of borders. first it was to capture water rights.. and later for expanding tax base. if those cities aren't growing their borders then they are dying. They used the Phoenix area as an example because that expansions thing was a big issue there.. none of the municipalities wanted to get hemmed in by another. They agreed. reluctantly, on some weird thin corridor-type borders to allow further expansion. None of them wanted to be a "Metuchen" to Phoenix's "Edison".
 
If places like NYC and LA need to be rebuilt with 'other people's money' it will be fair payback for making the rural living everyone seems to love so much possible, as rural areas are net takers.

Everything is connected, and if some area need helps at one point in time there should be little talk about 'other people's money' as it leads to things like NJ not getting money for a tunnel from the feds despite massively subsidizing the rest of the country for decades. The worm always turns.
Theres so much food produced in cities I forgot
 
Remember when we all said after 9/11 we'd never fly again?


The cities will make a comeback. They always do. People want to be together, share ideas, cultures. Seriously, to hook up and procreate. It's what we do.

SHHH it does not fit there narrative of dark lawless cities teemimg with immigrants and criminals. Wait till they get to Montana and Texas and want to go see a play or some music etc or any other cultural happening and they find out its a rodeo or a fried oreo at the county fair....
 
As a broker in the north jersey burbs, i can tell you that this is the most insane market ive seen since i got in the game in 2010. My colleagues who were around for 25-35 years say the same. Theyve never seen anything like this. People fleeing the city in troves. Anarchy isnt cool
 
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SHHH it does not fit there narrative of dark lawless cities teemimg with immigrants and criminals. Wait till they get to Montana and Texas and want to go see a play or some music etc or any other cultural happening and they find out its a rodeo or a fried oreo at the county fair....
You should look at cities around the country that have grown as people moved there. Highly suggest doing such.
 
As a broker in the north jersey burbs, i can tell you that this is the most insane market ive seen since i got in the game in 2010. My colleagues who were around for 25-35 years say the same. Theyve never seen anything like this. People fleeing the city in troves. Anarchy isnt cool
From the folks I've talked to, it's not the protesting. It's the being in lockdown in a 650sq ft apartment that made them realize that having space is nice.
 
From the folks I've talked to, it's not the protesting. It's the being in lockdown in a 650sq ft apartment that made them realize that having space is nice.
Thats part of it but the riots are what broke the camels back. Trust me im talking to these people daily. Nyc is a toxic wasteland right now and people are letting their wallets speak
 
You do realize a place like NYC subsidizes the rest of the state, and not the other way around. And NY state as whole subsidizes other states so, in no way are suburbs paying for NYC, at any level.
Like NYC is about the ONLY example you could use... and if you took away the commuter tax.. what would it then be? I bet they are working out language to tax telecommuters right now.

And if the burbs are not supporting NYC.. why didn't THEY build the ARC tunnel for the commuters who pay them taxes?

I bet someone once said the same thing about Detroit.. how it supported rural Michigan.
 
How are the suburbs surrounding NYC going to be a good bet if everyone is betting on NYC collapsing?

All the rich suburbs in Northern NJ are rich because of proximity to NYC. If the city is f'd because all the jobs and people leave the suburbs are f'd as well.
 
And when their office opens back up how will they continue to live in those cities while making NYC salary?

Do you work in NYC?

My company has already said maybe by end of year reopening and only 20% capacity at that.
Post-Sandy the company was already reducing floors in the building and consolidating staff with new open floor plan designs.
Encouraging remote working to reduce the need to rent extra floors.

There has been zero dropoff in workflow with everyone mandatory WFH since 3/12.

Alot of these offices are not going to ever be at 100% Pre-Covid capacity.
 
Do you work in NYC?

My company has already said maybe by end of year reopening and only 20% capacity at that.
Post-Sandy the company was already reducing floors in the building and consolidating staff with new open floor plan designs.
Encouraging remote working to reduce the need to rent extra floors.

There has been zero dropoff in workflow with everyone mandatory WFH since 3/12.

Alot of these offices are not going to ever be at 100% Pre-Covid capacity.
Offices can reconfigure, apartments can't. That's why people will still be willing to work in the city, but won't want to live there.
 
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