OT: COVID Science - Pfizer/Moderna vaccines >90% effective; Regeneron antibody cocktail looks very promising in phase II/III trial and more

[RU848789]

Agree with you and I will get it as well soon I expect.
Lol. She's a bit wacky but very bright and began rambling when I called to discuss a melanoma case. So, Iike you i went through paper she referenced and pondered your exact question. assumed she was referring to t cell responses in older and vulnerable since humoral immunity in older farts greatly wanes and concern about enhancement and cross reactive responses, and geographic and phenotype concerns - virus causes varied pathological and sometimes contradictory immune responses in different individuals.
but, think she's more concerned about the rush and sceptical about the industrial complex.

here is her abridged email response in that regard:

"Informed consent disclosure to vaccine trial subjects of risk of covid-19 vaccines worsening clinical disease:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ijcp.13795

"Nowhere near ready to be given to our most important people. Nottaking it as a cytologist, especially at this early stage, and after having followed all the research and studies from the beginning, plus having written and illustrated about viruses and other pathogens found in this cytopathology lab.
good summary of why:
ICAN, a vaccine safety watchdog group, wrote to CDC threatening to sue if they did not agree to a totally benign placebo instead of another vaccine, meningococcal vaccine. They agreed but Astra-Zenica's trial using the vaccine as a placebo was not changed.

Rushing too fast too quickly. By allowing this to skip animal trials and the failed SARS vaccine trials of 2005, there is valid concern about this vaccine. A member of a colleagues state pharmacy board noted two deaths from Astra-Zeneca vaccine early on raised their concern. Risk of death from this disease in health care workers is low, and more maximum isolation post-symptom occurrence should help decrease the need to rush this.
long term studies on animals should be first no matter what."

Ok, good to hear I read that right and that you're reasonably ok with the vaccine (despite questions I'm sure most of us have with a new vaccine). Also, I haven't heard anything about 2 deaths from the Oxford/AZ vaccine at all (there was the one in Brazil, but the DSMB didn't stop the trial there, so presumably it was ruled to not be vaccine related, plus there are going to be people who die when there's 30-60K people involved in anything) - that would've been big news. And recommending isolation over vaccines for high risk health care workers seems nutty to me.

 

[RUfubar]

Ok, good to hear I read that right and that you're reasonably ok with the vaccine (despite questions I'm sure most of us have with a new vaccine). Also, I haven't heard anything about 2 deaths from the Oxford/AZ vaccine at all (there was the one in Brazil, but the DSMB didn't stop the trial there, so presumably it was ruled to not be vaccine related, plus there are going to be people who die when there's 30-60K people involved in anything) - that would've been big news. And recommending isolation over vaccines for high risk health care workers seems nutty to me.

Supposedly the deaths (I think one a Brazilian doctor) were real with this AZ trial and the reason the trial continued was because this was deemed in the placebo group and this is why she was upset as well as others allegedly. They were not supposed to continue giving meningococcal vaccine as the placebo but something more benign like saline. So if I'm to believe her - they created a skewed study effect by giving a non benign placebo which I do agree seems illogical & sloppy. You might argue that it's not a big deal because it was not Sars vaccine induced. There's a general sense of things being rushed and played up. And I can tell you early in the pandemic, I had a hissy fit in ICU when we're throwing all this s*** at people that I felt wasn't working, (no matter how much in your heart and mind you want it to work and believe it to work) and maybe hurting. we were doing it just so that we need to feel active, and not inadequate and helpless. and I can tell you that we made people worse especially with the vent settings. when you hear on the news that we got better at treating people - that is code for we stopped doing things to hurt them. I tell the younger docs sometimes "benign neglect" , tlc, supportive therapy is the best therapy when you don't know what the hell you're doing. Viral infections always are and always will be difficult to treat. Primum non nocere.

 

[RU848789]

Supposedly the deaths (I think one a Brazilian doctor) were real with this AZ trial and the reason the trial continued was because this was deemed in the placebo group and this is why she was upset as well as others allegedly. They were not supposed to continue giving meningococcal vaccine as the placebo but something more benign like saline. So if I'm to believe her - they created a skewed study effect by giving a non benign placebo which I do agree seems illogical & sloppy. You might argue that it's not a big deal because it was not Sars vaccine induced. There's a general sense of things being rushed and played up. And I can tell you early in the pandemic, I had a hissy fit in ICU when we're throwing all this s*** at people that I felt wasn't working, (no matter how much in your heart and mind you want it to work and believe it to work) and maybe hurting. we were doing it just so that we need to feel active, and not inadequate and helpless. and I can tell you that we made people worse especially with the vent settings. when you hear on the news that we got better at treating people - that is code for we stopped doing things to hurt them. I tell the younger docs sometimes "benign neglect" , tlc, supportive therapy is the best therapy when you don't know what the hell you're doing. Viral infections always are and always will be difficult to treat. Primum non nocere.

Yeah, there was a lot of debate over the placebo with the pro of using another vaccine being that it would make it far harder for recipients to know if they got the vaccine or placebo (saline won't give fevers/chills, wheras the meningococcal could) and it's supposed to be very safe, so significant side effects should have been low - the con would obviously be if there were more side effects from the placebo than expected.

I can appreciate, conceptually, the frustration of not knowing what to do, but not having been in your shoes, I'm sure I can't truly understand the depth of frustration. As I've said before folks like yourself have my utmost respect for doing the best you could for months on end without the support you should have had.

 

[RU848789]

Two good articles in the Times on antibodies and T-cells. The first one provides further evidence (from cited papers) that waning antibody responses in infected/recovered patients are not a major concern as this kind of reduction is seen for many infectious/viral diseases, as the body has no need to keep a large "standing army" of antibodies, when it can simply make more if threatened again by a virus that it has fought off before.

The second one is about some major advances in the US and UK on developing faster, more useful blood tests to check for T-cells, the types of white blood cells that can recognize and attack/kill viruses with specific antigens/proteins, like the coronavirus and its spike protein epitopes. These tests are now becoming more sensitive than the antibody tests we've been hearing a lot about for months, which are used to identify if someone has been exposed to the virus and recovered, plus in recovered patients, T-cell levels don't seem to drop off as much as antibody levels, so it could be a better test to reveal if one had been infected and fought it off (even if asymptomatic).

There are also some people who have T-cells which confer some "cross-immunity" from previous common cold coronaviruses to SARS-CoV-2, probably lessening the impact (but not preventing the infection) on people who have never been infected by SARS-CoV-2 before, although there is still much to figure out on that count. Have talked about both of these a ton in the old COVID threads, but these updates are both good news.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/...tion=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/...s-immunity.html#click=https://t.co/rGeGE2FE0t

As usual, Derek Lowe has chimed in with another excellent blog entry, this time on the findings above. He seemed equally as impressed with the work done to show durable T-cell immune responses in infected/recovered COVID patients, in addition to the diagnostic work being done to develop faster/better T-cell tests by a couple of companies, as per below. Looking into the future and thinking about the next pandemic - because there will be one - I think his last paragraph below is spot on. We're going to need better tools, vaccines and overall scientific understanding for the next one.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/11/good-news-on-t-cell-response

That suggests that there may indeed be some protective T-cell immunity out there that is being missed by a focus on antibody levels (as has been suspected), but it also says that you can’t just extrapolate this to the whole population by any means: we don’t all have T-cells ready to go. But if you do, you may have a substantial amount of protection, and this might be detectable by a relatively simple assay.

That last point has been the holdup in this area: the story has been all about antibodies because the assays for those are far, far easier to set up. T cell assays are very labor intensive indeed, and the sample sizes in the papers on them tend to be in the dozens. But as you can see, the Oxford Immunotec people are trying to improve that, and so is a company called Adapative Technologies here in the US (and there are others). They have a big write-up in the New York Times this week, and it’s a good article. A quote from an immunologist in it sums things up well: “There has. . .never been great demand for wading into the intricacies of T cell tests.” Adaptive’s recent work on a population in Italy suggests that its test is definitely better at determining whether a person has had a previous coronavirus infection (as opposed to antibody measurements), and if we put that together with the other papers mentioned, it could be that this extends to saying how much protection these people retain.

So the story is coming together. And just as vaccine work is never going to be the same after the huge amounts of work during this pandemic, it looks like T-cell research is never going to be the same, either. They’re both going to be better, faster, and more detailed, and that’s good. Because we’re going to need all this again some day.

 

[UMRU]

When you say the "approach" are you talking about the application to cancer/tumors and, if so, can you explain how it works? Are you saying this is a diagnostic approach to finding which people have the right T-cell-receptors to direct the T-cells to destroy cancer cells? And could it go beyond that to trying to figure out how to either supply or turn on such receptors (via pharmaceuticals presumably) as part of a cancer therapy? Almost sounds like the opposite of the PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors, which allow the immune system to kill cancer cells, i.e., the approach would be more like a way to activate ordinarily inactive TCRs to attack cancer cells. Is that even close? Sorry, my immunology knowledge is weak.

This would not be a treatment in any way - it would purely be diagnostic to easily determine if people have developed good T cell responses, which would indicate that they should be protected from infection.

As you know, there are billions of possible TCRs. The trick is to uncover the TCRs that come from T cells that have responded to the infection or tumor. Once you know what those TCRs are, PCR and high throughput DNA sequencing can be done to determine if a person has the TCRs that work. The premise is pretty simple, but the reality of doing this is actually very hard. However, the alternative to this is what Crotty does - isolate the living T cells and try to activate them with peptides coming from the virus. This is even harder, especially since it the work has to be done in BSL3 rooms (space suits).

 

[UMRU]

Agree with you and I will get it as well soon I expect.
Lol. She's a bit wacky but very bright and began rambling when I called to discuss a melanoma case. So, Iike you i went through paper she referenced and pondered your exact question. assumed she was referring to t cell responses in older and vulnerable since humoral immunity in older farts greatly wanes and concern about enhancement and cross reactive responses, and geographic and phenotype concerns - virus causes varied pathological and sometimes contradictory immune responses in different individuals.
but, think she's more concerned about the rush and sceptical about the industrial complex.

here is her abridged email response in that regard:

"Informed consent disclosure to vaccine trial subjects of risk of covid-19 vaccines worsening clinical disease:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ijcp.13795

"Nowhere near ready to be given to our most important people. Nottaking it as a cytologist, especially at this early stage, and after having followed all the research and studies from the beginning, plus having written and illustrated about viruses and other pathogens found in this cytopathology lab.
good summary of why:
ICAN, a vaccine safety watchdog group, wrote to CDC threatening to sue if they did not agree to a totally benign placebo instead of another vaccine, meningococcal vaccine. They agreed but Astra-Zenica's trial using the vaccine as a placebo was not changed.

Rushing too fast too quickly. By allowing this to skip animal trials and the failed SARS vaccine trials of 2005, there is valid concern about this vaccine. A member of a colleagues state pharmacy board noted two deaths from Astra-Zeneca vaccine early on raised their concern. Risk of death from this disease in health care workers is low, and more maximum isolation post-symptom occurrence should help decrease the need to rush this.
long term studies on animals should be first no matter what."

Did the 2005 SARS vaccine actually fail? I thought that SARS was contained pretty rapidly and therefore it was not possible to tell if the vaccine was effective. We certainly don't have that problem this time.

 

[RU848789]

Did the 2005 SARS vaccine actually fail? I thought that SARS was contained pretty rapidly and therefore it was not possible to tell if the vaccine was effective. We certainly don't have that problem this time.

No, the SARS vaccines never even made it into humans, as the disease petered out by summer of 2003, although there were problems with "immunopathology suggesting hypersensitivity to SARS-CoV components" in some of the animals tested - despite the vaccines raising protective immune responses. The biggest reason for SARS-CoV-1 disappearing were that it was significantly less transmissible, primarily due to infectiousness being greatest after significant symptoms were present, as opposed to SARS-CoV-2, which is fairly transmissible in mildly or even asymptomatic people. Given those differences, masking and tracing/isolating positive cases were very effective.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/

 

[RUfubar]

Did the 2005 SARS vaccine actually fail? I thought that SARS was contained pretty rapidly and therefore it was not possible to tell if the vaccine was effective. We certainly don't have that problem this time.

We don't/won't know without the animal studies which she was referencing which initially did not work out well regarding inducing immunopathology. Oh well... sometimes you got to put your nickel down, roll the dice and pray. Adverse events in the sarscov2 vax trials' underrepresented vulnerable population would be a real bad look.

 

[RU848789]

We don't/won't know without the animal studies which she was referencing which initially did not work out well regarding inducing immunopathology. Oh well... sometimes you got to put your nickel down, roll the dice and pray. Adverse events in the sarscov2 vax trials' underrepresented vulnerable population would be a real bad look.

There have been animal studies (usually mice and macaques, as far as I recall) for every SARS-CoV2 vaccine and none of them showed any serious issues with immunopathology or antibody dependent enhancement and they all showed strong immune system (antibodies and T-cells) responses, with some variability, as expected, and showed prevention of transmission of disease in the high majority of animals (but not all). Are you saying there weren't enough animal studies?

 

[RU848789]

The latest IHME (U of Washington) model forecast is pretty bleak, predicting 440K US deaths by the end of February, which includes 383K by the end of January and 318K by the end of the year, from our starting point of about 240K now. The model run shows an acceleration in deaths from the current rate of 1000-1500 deaths per day to about 2000-2200 deaths per day from December through February, given the huge current rise in cases ongoing, which has 2-4 week lag before deaths start climbing quickly.

This should not be a surprise to anyone who has read what most of the experts have been talking about with regard to cases rising this fall as people went back to school/universities, as well as the return of colder weather driving people back indoors much more, leading to more infections, which is part of what sends flu cases up every year. The model run also shows a "best case" of 370K deaths by the end of February, if we see far more masking/distancing than we're seeing now, and a worst case of 586K deaths if there is a significant decline in vigilance by the public.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

While things are certainly bleak, I think the death estimates are a bit overestimated, as I believe that the new antibody treatments will start to make a difference in December, as they get emergency approvals, plus I think vaccines will start to make a difference by late January, given expected rollout in early December, at least for health care/front line workers, who are most at risk - I think most of these people should have immunity by mid-January, reducing deaths significantly.

I'd guess more like 400K deaths by the end of February (vs. 440K), although either number is horrible and largely a function of us not really having great interventions in place, with masking/distancing nowhere near universal and mediocre testing, tracing and isolating efforts. For what it's worth, back in early September, IHME was predicting 410K deaths by the end of the year, while I was predicting 310K deaths, given expected improvements in procedures/treatments and accounting for people already infected (see the linked post, below) - and we're very likely to have about 310-315K deaths by the end of the year. Let's hope I'm right on my new prediction (vs. IHME's higher numbers).

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...es-interventions-and-more.198855/post-4686684

The other somewhat good news for this area is that deaths in NY/NJ are not expected to rise nearly as much as the rest of the country. NY is projected to rise from about 34K current deaths to 45.5K, a ~34% increase vs. the US's ~85% increase from now through Feb and NJ is expected to rise from about 16.5K to 20.1K by the end of Feb, a 22% increase. Keep in mind, however, that some of lower expected increase is because our deaths are much higher per capita than elsewhere to date, given how early we were hit before we had testing or any plans to control the virus - everywhere else is playing catch-up, unfortunately.

 

[RUfubar]

There have been animal studies (usually mice and macaques, as far as I recall) for every SARS-CoV2 vaccine and none of them showed any serious issues with immunopathology or antibody dependent enhancement and they all showed strong immune system (antibodies and T-cells) responses, with some variability, as expected, and showed prevention of transmission of disease in the high majority of animals (but not all). Are you saying there weren't enough animal studies?

As far as I'm superficially aware, no induced mouse model or animal model phenotypically reproduces all aspects of COVID-19 in humans, especially the unusual features such as the pulmonary vascular disease and hyperinflammatory syndromes observed in adults and children, respectively.
This novel virus is a b**** to try to study given the time frame constraints and phenotypic diverse presentations it causes. It's not as simple as let's induce these mice with human type AE2 receptors and study their responses to viral challenge both positive and negative and project that
they are human phenotypic equivalents. one size does not fit all with this virus. Patho Immunological chaos and we are not sure of the determinants of immunity and what that looks like. We're taking educated guesses based on common sense scientific reasoning. Everybody was so sure about convalescent plasma since it made sense, but in my opinion I swear that some patients were getting immediately worse after infusion. A china study you read where the high IGG producers we're having bad outcomes and I thought that was an interesting find and maybe we were adding fuel to the Immunological fire.

 

[Yeah Baby]

Redfield now saying Vaccines will help but is still pushing masks. Said we need the under 35 year old crowd needs to wear masks all of the time. He thinks this will get worse and then better and will be gone by mid December.

Also said therapeutics are working well and 3-10% of over 75 yr olds who contract it are. dying now vs 25-30% back in April time frame. They think the Euro version which started in China has been way more infectious which is why the original west coast version direct from China didn’t do as much damage. This explains why some politicians wanted to party in Chinatown back in February. That version was not spreading so fast. Then the Euro version hit NYC and was a disaster. Italy got hit way worse than China and S Korea so this all adds up but I think there is still more to learn about this and the various versions of this disease.

The scientists including Fauci seem to be against lockdowns. Just be smart and stay safe.

 

[ScarletNut]

Will frontliners and others who have already contracted and recovered from COVID-19 get the vaccine also?

 

[mikemarc1]

Redfield now saying Vaccines will help but is still pushing masks. Said we need the under 35 year old crowd needs to wear masks all of the time. He thinks this will get worse and then better and will be gone by mid December.

Also said therapeutics are working well and 3-10% of over 75 yr olds who contract it are. dying now vs 25-30% back in April time frame. They think the Euro version which started in China has been way more infectious which is why the original west coast version direct from China didn’t do as much damage. This explains why some politicians wanted to party in Chinatown back in February. That version was not spreading so fast. Then the Euro version hit NYC and was a disaster. Italy got hit way worse than China and S Korea so this all adds up but I think there is still more to learn about this and the various versions of this disease.

The scientists including Fauci seem to be against lockdowns. Just be smart and stay safe.

He said the virus will be gone by Mid-December?

 

[mikebal9]

Will frontliners and others who have already contracted and recovered from COVID-19 get the vaccine also?

This is a slightly embarrassing question, but I don't think I ever heard a definitive answer. Are we seeing people contract the disease more than once? Or is it a chicken pox one-and-done situation?

 

[mikemarc1]

This is a slightly embarrassing question, but I don't think I ever heard a definitive answer. Are we seeing people contract the disease more than once? Or is it a chicken pox one-and-done situation?

People are testing positive twice..but it is likely due to the tests picking up dead viral fragments.

 

[Yeah Baby]

He said the virus will be gone by Mid-December?

Yeah it shocked me when he did. A few months ago he said masks would save more lives than a vaccine. He backed off of that a little today but still thinks if everyone wears a mask all of the time (he wasn’t wearing one when he said it) we would see a big reduction in cases.

He also said this is being spread at family gatherings. I call BS. When someone gets it their family all gets tested and that shows a link of family spreading. But none of the strangers they come in contact with get tested or can be traced back to that person so therein lies the rub. Not only do the scientists all disagree with each other but they tend to lack in common sense. The media just wants to spread fear and we have a lot of sheep in this country.

I am hoping he is at least right about this ending in December. This hopefully is based on all of the data we have gathered globally. Speaking of which Sweden is now #18 and soon to drop to around #22 in deaths per capita. No lockdowns.

 

[RU848789]

This is a slightly embarrassing question, but I don't think I ever heard a definitive answer. Are we seeing people contract the disease more than once? Or is it a chicken pox one-and-done situation?

Early on, the cases of reinfection were determined to be false positives, due to the PCR test picking up viral RNA shards (the test doesn't distinguish "active" viruses from "inactive" shards of viruses). However, more recently, in some rare cases (dozens, worldwide out of tens of millions infected), yes, people have been confirmed to be reinfected, but the vast majority of infected people should be immune for at least many months, although it's difficult to "know" how long immunity will last with a new virus - other coronaviruses (common cold) only have months of immunity and so, are seasonal. But people who had SARS still have antibodies 15+ years later (but we can't know if they're immune, since the virus isn't around anymore). My guess is high risk workers, even if previously infected, will likely get the vaccine to provide extra protection (I would, assuming the safety data prove to be very good).

https://www.cnet.com/health/can-you...e-what-we-do-and-dont-know-about-reinfection/

 

[RU848789]

He said the virus will be gone by Mid-December?

Yeah it shocked me when he did. A few months ago he said masks would save more lives than a vaccine. He backed off of that a little today but still thinks if everyone wears a mask all of the time (he wasn’t wearing one when he said it) we would see a big reduction in cases.

He also said this is being spread at family gatherings. I call BS. When someone gets it their family all gets tested and that shows a link of family spreading. But none of the strangers they come in contact with get tested or can be traced back to that person so therein lies the rub. Not only do the scientists all disagree with each other but they tend to lack in common sense. The media just wants to spread fear and we have a lot of sheep in this country.

I am hoping he is at least right about this ending in December. This hopefully is based on all of the data we have gathered globally. Speaking of which Sweden is now #18 and soon to drop to around #22 in deaths per capita. No lockdowns.

Yeah Baby - please don't post highly inaccurate info like that. Redfield never said the virus would be gone by December. A few months ago he was warning about this fall/winter being very bad and vaccines starting to be available by the end of the year. In fact just yesterday he warned we might see a million cases per day this winter before we have widespread vaccines. There is no scenario where this even starts slowing down before about late January/February, when vaccines start becoming more widely available (presumably), unless we get universal masking or have severe lockdowns. That's why he's pushing universal masking and no indoor gatherings so hard.

https://www.wxyz.com/news/upfront/c...urge-across-the-nation-and-updated-guidelines

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...all-could-be-the-worst-ever-for-public-health

Also, stop with the Sweden misinformation. Their case rates are going through the roof, like much of Europe - just a bit later, as happens sometimes - and their death rates will start climbing rapidly too. Fortunately for most European countries that were hit hard in the spring, while the case rates are 3-5X higher now, that's a false comparison, as nobody had adequate testing in the spring, so those case rates are artificially low. This means that the death rates are likely to not be any worse in this wave than back in the spring - this is similar to what I've been predicting in the US, as they're seeing it first. Still sucks, but it would be much worse if we hadn't improved medical procedures and treatments (and need to ensure hospitals don't get overrun, which is a real risk and can significantly increase death rates as we saw in NY/NJ in the spring).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

 

[cohwx]

Everybody was so sure about convalescent plasma since it made sense, but in my opinion I swear that some patients were getting immediately worse after infusion. A china study you read where the high IGG producers we're having bad outcomes and I thought that was an interesting find and maybe we were adding fuel to the Immunological fire.

What stage of disease were these patients? I'm guessing they were pretty advanced/hospitalized? Probably already into the inflammatory stage?

Have always thought that antibody treatments (monoclonal and/or human plasma) would really only be effective (or most effective) early in the disease process and we're rapidly getting to the point in this country where early treatment is going to be impossible because hospitals are filling up with advanced cases. Same with other antiviral treatments that may or may not work (like remdesivir, HCQ, ivermectin) - patients can't get access to them early when they could possibly help. Very bad situation in my opinion.

 

[RUBOB72]

Please the misinformation given out by government, media , medical/B1G pharma ,WHO, CDC ,NIHI all helped to not only confuse but piss off people in many countries. Now with this anticipated release ( hopefully by April general public) we are getting misleading time lines and who or who won’t get the vaccines first. With this anticipated change in government soon I would anticipate after January this will only get worse not better. The larger the interference by government the more this will somehow fail the expectations we all have. They in D.C never cared and certainly don’t now... All Of Them...

 

[Greg2020]

Yeah it shocked me when he did. A few months ago he said masks would save more lives than a vaccine. He backed off of that a little today but still thinks if everyone wears a mask all of the time (he wasn’t wearing one when he said it) we would see a big reduction in cases.

He also said this is being spread at family gatherings. I call BS. When someone gets it their family all gets tested and that shows a link of family spreading. But none of the strangers they come in contact with get tested or can be traced back to that person so therein lies the rub. Not only do the scientists all disagree with each other but they tend to lack in common sense. The media just wants to spread fear and we have a lot of sheep in this country.

I am hoping he is at least right about this ending in December. This hopefully is based on all of the data we have gathered globally. Speaking of which Sweden is now #18 and soon to drop to around #22 in deaths per capita. No lockdowns.

Sweden just announced their highest amount of cases ever in a day, and hospitalization rates there are rising quickly.

 

[RUskoolie]

The latest IHME (U of Washington) model forecast is pretty bleak, predicting 440K US deaths by the end of February, which includes 383K by the end of January and 318K by the end of the year, from our starting point of about 240K now. The model run shows an acceleration in deaths from the current rate of 1000-1500 deaths per day to about 2000-2200 deaths per day from December through February, given the huge current rise in cases ongoing, which has 2-4 week lag before deaths start climbing quickly.

This should not be a surprise to anyone who has read what most of the experts have been talking about with regard to cases rising this fall as people went back to school/universities, as well as the return of colder weather driving people back indoors much more, leading to more infections, which is part of what sends flu cases up every year. The model run also shows a "best case" of 370K deaths by the end of February, if we see far more masking/distancing than we're seeing now, and a worst case of 586K deaths if there is a significant decline in vigilance by the public.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

While things are certainly bleak, I think the death estimates are a bit overestimated, as I believe that the new antibody treatments will start to make a difference in December, as they get emergency approvals, plus I think vaccines will start to make a difference by late January, given expected rollout in early December, at least for health care/front line workers, who are most at risk - I think most of these people should have immunity by mid-January, reducing deaths significantly.

I'd guess more like 400K deaths by the end of February (vs. 440K), although either number is horrible and largely a function of us not really having great interventions in place, with masking/distancing nowhere near universal and mediocre testing, tracing and isolating efforts. For what it's worth, back in early September, IHME was predicting 410K deaths by the end of the year, while I was predicting 310K deaths, given expected improvements in procedures/treatments and accounting for people already infected (see the linked post, below) - and we're very likely to have about 310-315K deaths by the end of the year. Let's hope I'm right on my new prediction (vs. IHME's higher numbers).

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...es-interventions-and-more.198855/post-4686684

The other somewhat good news for this area is that deaths in NY/NJ are not expected to rise nearly as much as the rest of the country. NY is projected to rise from about 34K current deaths to 45.5K, a ~34% increase vs. the US's ~85% increase from now through Feb and NJ is expected to rise from about 16.5K to 20.1K by the end of Feb, a 22% increase. Keep in mind, however, that some of lower expected increase is because our deaths are much higher per capita than elsewhere to date, given how early we were hit before we had testing or any plans to control the virus - everywhere else is playing catch-up, unfortunately.

IHME has been constantly wrong all year...

 

[bac2therac]

Masks are rquired in all businesses in Nj and cases are spiking. The idea that people arent complying mask is largely false. True in some parts of the country but not in the northeast. Yet people are getting it mask or no mask

 

[RUskoolie]

Masks are rquired in all businesses in Nj and cases are spiking. The idea that people arent complying mask is largely false. True in some parts of the country but not in the northeast. Yet people are getting it mask or no mask

Masks don't work but we'll keep pounding that narrative anyway because it's easier to sell than the alternative. The whole thing is a joke. Everyone everywhere is wearing masks and cases are going straight up anyway.

 

[WhiteBus]

Masks are rquired in all businesses in Nj and cases are spiking. The idea that people arent complying mask is largely false. True in some parts of the country but not in the northeast. Yet people are getting it mask or no mask

It's a way for the government to put the blame on the public. "You didn't where a mask 24/7, it's your fault for catching the virus!" Their effectiveness is far lower than the so called online experts claim.

 

[Joey Bags]

The current dominant strain has evolved to become more infectious (albeit not more lethal) hence the smaller impact masking has. Stuff is in preprint regarding the new strain and you will probably be hearing more on this shortly. Shouldn’t have an impact on the vaccines in development.

 

[e5fdny]

I’ll pass.

 

[RUskoolie]

The current dominant strain has evolved to become more infectious (albeit not more lethal) hence the smaller impact masking has. Stuff is in preprint regarding the new strain and you will probably be hearing more on this shortly. Shouldn’t have an impact on the vaccines in development.

Or maybe it's flu season...like every flu season in history, people get more sick during said season.

 

[tom1944]

For the limited amount of time I need to wear a mask I will.

I wear it at work but not in my office when I have the door closed and I wear it when I go to stores.

It really is not that big a deal and even if it is not perfect it provides some protection. Same as my seatbelt not perfect but better than not wearing it.

I do see too many people with the mask below their nose which I read renders the mask useless

 

[Joey Bags]

Or maybe it's flu season...like every flu season in history, people get more sick during said season.

It’s not. All the restrictions in place for covid have suppressed the flu to almost nonexistent levels compared to typical years.

 

[bac2therac]

Wait..i thought people arent following protocols .how could flu disappear but Covid going strong then

 

[RUBOB72]

Legality of closing off interstate borders during Thanksgiving through New Years. These same
governors who were diametrically opposed to a southern border now thinking of possibly stopping interstate travels... Really ?

 

[RUBOB72]

Legality of closing off interstate borders during Thanksgiving through New Years. These same
governors who were diametrically opposed to a southern border now thinking of possibly stopping interstate travels... Really ?

Masks have been told to forget Covid and concentrate on the flu. Another reason flu numbers are down? Maybe it’s the number of people who received the flu shot since August? It was a “hot” topic and emphasized by the medical gurus. I know of a number of people who for years were adverse to getting the influenza vaccine who went and got it. Curious to see how many went for the flu vaccine in 2020.

 

[ScarletNut]

Wait..i thought people arent following protocols .how could flu disappear but Covid going strong then

Because people have gotten the flu shot and the flu isn’t as contagious as COVID. Did you really just ask that question??

 

[Greg2020]

Bac, skoolie, and bob are potatoes.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

In NC, we've been seeing 3,900 new cases daily of late. Rural areas now represent much of the surge. Mask wearing is not popular in rural NC.

Out here in the Boone/Blowing Rock area, most town residents are wearing masks. Problem is many folks from outlying areas (and TN) come into "town" for shopping/supplies. While all stores have "masks required" signage, many chain stores do not enforce the mask requirement. Independent shops seem better at it, and don't seem to mind turning away non-mask wearers.

The anti-maskers crack me up. Bold.
Political. Defiant. Even proud of their "Don't tread on me" and my rights as an individual nonsense.

Wear a mask when you're in public places.

 

[Kbee3]

Bac, skoolie, and bob are potatoes.

So true.

 

[pmvon]

Yeah Baby - please don't post highly inaccurate info like that. Redfield never said the virus would be gone by December. A few months ago he was warning about this fall/winter being very bad and vaccines starting to be available by the end of the year. In fact just yesterday he warned we might see a million cases per day this winter before we have widespread vaccines. There is no scenario where this even starts slowing down before about late January/February, when vaccines start becoming more widely available (presumably), unless we get universal masking or have severe lockdowns. That's why he's pushing universal masking and no indoor gatherings so hard.

https://www.wxyz.com/news/upfront/c...urge-across-the-nation-and-updated-guidelines

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...all-could-be-the-worst-ever-for-public-health

Also, stop with the Sweden misinformation. Their case rates are going through the roof, like much of Europe - just a bit later, as happens sometimes - and their death rates will start climbing rapidly too. Fortunately for most European countries that were hit hard in the spring, while the case rates are 3-5X higher now, that's a false comparison, as nobody had adequate testing in the spring, so those case rates are artificially low. This means that the death rates are likely to not be any worse in this wave than back in the spring - this is similar to what I've been predicting in the US, as they're seeing it first. Still sucks, but it would be much worse if we hadn't improved medical procedures and treatments (and need to ensure hospitals don't get overrun, which is a real risk and can significantly increase death rates as we saw in NY/NJ in the spring).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Numbers and Rubar, appreciate your insights. Let’s see if we can get this thread back on track with some rationale discussion.

How big of a deal do you think this new test is? And how quickly would it take to role this out widely?

New cutting-edge rapid test detects both COVID-19 and flu

<p>A groundbreaking, rapid combined test for COVID-19 and flu viruses has been rolled out at UC Davis Health, which is among the first in the nation to use this highly accurate “gold-standard” screening that produces results in 20 minutes.</p>

health.ucdavis.edu

 

[RUBOB72]

In NC, we've been seeing 3,900 new cases daily of late. Rural areas now represent much of the surge. Mask wearing is not popular in rural NC.

Out here in the Boone/Blowing Rock area, most town residents are wearing masks. Problem is many folks from outlying areas (and TN) come into "town" for shopping/supplies. While all stores have "masks required" signage, many chain stores do not enforce the mask requirement. Independent shops seem better at it, and don't seem to mind turning away non-mask wearers.

The anti-maskers crack me up. Bold.
Political. Defiant. Even proud of their "Don't tread on me" and my rights as an individual nonsense.

Wear a mask when you're in public places.

Yeah , I like our RIGHTS ( masks don’t offend me) what bothers me and millions is the threat of some of the over reach which is directly around the corner.