By the way, I dislike these really long "links" - I like the old one-liners as they don't waste so much space. I assume it's some setting in the new board, as I've seen others posting single line links. Anyone? @DJ Spanky?
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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Science can be pretty cool sometimes. These are awesome pics of SARS-CoV-2 virions (the red active virus particles) all over the surfaces of human bronchial epithelial cells (with the blue cilia), which are hosting actively replicating viruses from lung tissue, in vitro.
news.unchealthcare.org
𝗜𝗻 𝗮 𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗼𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗔𝗥𝗦-𝗖𝗼-𝗩-𝟮 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝘂𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗯𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝟵𝟲 𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗽𝘆.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗲𝘀, 𝗿𝗲-𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗨𝗡𝗖 𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗻, 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝘂𝘀 (𝘆𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄) 𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗮 𝘁𝗶𝗽𝘀 (𝗯𝗹𝘂𝗲). 𝗖𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗮 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗿-𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗳𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗶𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝗲𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝘂𝘀 (𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗱 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝘂𝘀𝗲𝘀) 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝘂𝗻𝗴. 𝗔 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗻𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗔𝗥𝗦-𝗖𝗼𝗩-𝟮 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 (𝗿𝗲𝗱) 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗶𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝗲𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮. 𝗩𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗲, 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝘂𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗶𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗳𝗮𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀.
𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗽𝘀 𝗶𝗹𝗹𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗯𝗹𝘆 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗶𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝘂𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝗮 𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗢𝗩𝗜𝗗-𝟭𝟵 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀. 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗶𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗮 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝗮𝘀𝗸𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝘂𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘁 𝗦𝗔𝗥𝗦-𝗖𝗼𝗩-𝟮 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻.
UNC Researchers Publish Striking Images of SARS-CoV-2 Infected Cells | Newsroom
The UNC School of Medicine lab of Camille Ehre, PhD, generated high-powered microscopic images showing startlingly high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads on human respiratory surfaces, ready to spread infection in infected individuals and transmit infection to others.
news.unchealthcare.org
𝗜𝗻 𝗮 𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗼𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗔𝗥𝗦-𝗖𝗼-𝗩-𝟮 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝘂𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗯𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝟵𝟲 𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗽𝘆.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗲𝘀, 𝗿𝗲-𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗨𝗡𝗖 𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗻, 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝘂𝘀 (𝘆𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄) 𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗮 𝘁𝗶𝗽𝘀 (𝗯𝗹𝘂𝗲). 𝗖𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗮 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗿-𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗳𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗶𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝗲𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝘂𝘀 (𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗱 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝘂𝘀𝗲𝘀) 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝘂𝗻𝗴. 𝗔 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗻𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗔𝗥𝗦-𝗖𝗼𝗩-𝟮 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 (𝗿𝗲𝗱) 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗶𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝗲𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮. 𝗩𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗲, 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝘂𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗶𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗳𝗮𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀.
𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗽𝘀 𝗶𝗹𝗹𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗯𝗹𝘆 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗶𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝘂𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝗮 𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗢𝗩𝗜𝗗-𝟭𝟵 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀. 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗶𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗮 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝗮𝘀𝗸𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝘂𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘁 𝗦𝗔𝗥𝗦-𝗖𝗼𝗩-𝟮 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻.
Yes, that's part of Rivals recent "upgrade" to the board software.
Direct paste of link gives this:
Top Adviser To Operation Warp Speed Calls An October Vaccine 'Extremely Unlikely'
Dr. Moncef Slaoui, chief adviser to the administration's effort to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, said having a vaccine by next month was "not impossible." But a longer timetable appears more likely.
www.npr.org
Using the link button with text gives this:
NPR Article on Vaccines
Thanks - I had figured it out in last night's post, but it's still annoying to have to do extra steps to post one line links, just like it's annoying to have to do extra clicks to paste in images.Direct paste of link gives this:
Top Adviser To Operation Warp Speed Calls An October Vaccine 'Extremely Unlikely'
Dr. Moncef Slaoui, chief adviser to the administration's effort to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, said having a vaccine by next month was "not impossible." But a longer timetable appears more likely.
Using the link button with text gives this:
NPR Article on Vaccines
How soon before NJ shuts down again ? Several deaths reported from June what took 2 months to determine ? So if wearing masks , social distancing and washing hands is being done shouldn’t we have seen a bigger decline in cases per day ? Would be nice to learn when these people who passed became infected and their specific ages . With totals of 4-7 -9 it would appear to be of help to us uneducated in the general populous. We keep hearing the Govenor tell us about ...“we’re going by the science “ Whose science exactly CDC , WHO, DOH ? Also , the flipping on the AC casino smoking yes or smoking no inside. Hell you don’t need to use the “science when figuring out it isn’t smart.Just can’t figure why our state’s numbers aren’t showing up better in the positives per day column.
Assuming a cold weather spike, not a crazy concept. Hope they are wrong and it’s closer to 250k.
Not if SlowJoe wins 11/3, expect that growth forecast to be cut in half, at least.
For all those folks interested in eating inside or outside this weekend. The line around to the back of Jose Tejas in Woodbridge Rt 1 was amazing ... they have had outdoor tents ( huge ) for weeks ... so the line of around 70 -100 people was quite shocking. There food is ok by Texas Mex standards but it ain’t worth waiting several hours . Stay well.
The models predicting 1+mil was if no restrictions were put in place, which makes those numbers very possible. Of course measures were put in place and we are no where near that.
The latest IHME (U of Washington) model forecast is even bleaker than the last one, predicting 310K US deaths by 12/1/20 vs. 295K deaths 2 weeks ago. That's 135K more in the next ~100 days, which is an average of about 1350 per day, with the increase vs. current rates due to people going back to school, leading to more infections, as well as the return of colder weather driving people back indoors much more, which is part of what sends flu deaths up every year.
The current model assumes maintaining the current level of masking/distancing (about 50% are wearing masks), but the graphic also shows a "worst case" of 421K US deaths if masking/distancing and other controls (allowing large crowds and indoor activities) are relaxed and also shows a "best case" of only 241K US deaths if ~95% masking is adopted, resulting in saving about 69K lives. Honestly, it's depressing we don't have such a mask mandate in place now.
They generally don't take into account lowering death rates through further improvements in procedures/treatments, since the models use the data we have to date, which already factors improvements in. If some new treatments come along (engineered antibodies?) that significantly reduce death rates, that would make their projections too high, but we don't have those in hand yet and enrollment has reportedly been slow, so we might not have them deployed until Oct/Nov (had been hoping Sept).
NY is projected to reach 32.7K deaths (down from 34K deaths in the last model run) and NJ is projected to reach 16.3K deaths (down from 16.5K deaths in the last model run), given low rates and high mask/distancing compliance in this area. The graphics don't add any additional info so aren't included here. There are a ton of details and interesting graphics in the 2nd link.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
COVID-19 policy briefings | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Read summaries of the latest results for 230+ locations, including WHO regions, national, and subnational locations.www.healthdata.org
The latest IHME (U of Washington) model forecast is even bleaker than the last one, predicting 410K US deaths by the end of the year, which includes 323K by the end of November vs. the 310K predicted by the end of November in the model run from about 12/31/20 vs. 295K deaths 2 weeks ago. This model run shows an acceleration in deaths from now through the end of the year (from the current ~1000/day to ~2000/day in Nov and to ~3000/day in Dec), due to people going back to school, leading to more infections, as well as the return of colder weather driving people back indoors much more, which is part of what sends flu deaths up every year. The model run also includes an even more significant acceleration in deaths from about mid-Nov on, due to an assumed decline in vigilance of the public.
IHME's general assumptions for this model are included below, in italics. Personally, I think they're overstating the increase in death rates, since we've had improved treatments/procedures and I also expect to have even better treatments soon (antibodies), although I don't think vaccines will factor into lowering death rates until January, as I don't think we'll have approval on vaccines until late Nov/Dec (and once we do, rollout will be slow at first). I also think the decline in vigilance is likely overstated. I also don't think they're accounting for the fact that we now likely have 15-25% infected in most major metropolitan areas, which should slow transmissions/deaths down vs. what we've seen.
I thought their estimates from two weeks ago were on the high side, but reasonable (~310K deaths by end of Nov and likely 350K deaths by the end of the year). However, I would think we're more likely to balance out increases due to school/indoor activities and possibly declining vigilance with decreases due to improved treatments and having a decent percentage already infected/immune, so I'd guess we're more likely to continue averaging 1000 deaths/day to bring us to maybe 310K by the end of the year (190K now). When IHME was "low" back in late March, I predicted higher numbers and "hoped" theirs were right; (they weren't, although I was too low also); now that I'm predicting lower numbers than they are, I hope I'm right.
Regardless, neither 410K nor 310K is acceptable to me, so I'd still argue strongly for universal masking and aggressive testing, tracing and isolating (especially if we can roll out 15-minute/frequent testing to catch infections in real time and isolate those folks) and continued slow reopenings (especially around here). I'd much rather not assume we're going to have cures/vaccines as soon as many think we might - including me - I'd rather plan for the downside and hope for the upside.
- We extended our forecasts to January 1. We expect the daily death rate in the United States, because of seasonality and declining vigilance of the public, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December. Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 410,000; this is 225,000 deaths from now until the end of the year.
- If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, namely no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1, then the death toll could increase to 620,000 by January 1. Compared to the reference scenario, this would be 210,000 more deaths from now to the end of the year.
- Increasing mask use remains an extraordinary opportunity for the US. Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 288,000, or 122,000 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 30% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org
COVID-19 estimation updates | United States
Read about IHME’s latest COVID-19 forecasts for the United States.
And that is with wearing masks , hand washing and social distancing in place so how does that lead us to double the deaths by January? Why bother with any of the protocols ...just let it rip .. . Survival of the fittest and the luck of the draw... China at 4795 deaths reported as of today. Really???
IME is full out bullsh!t
Sweden is basically done with this..did you see what their model did with their death totals...embarrassing for the IME
Sweden is basically done with this..did you see what their model did with their death totals...embarrassing for the IME
bizarre since they arent wearing masks as it is in Sweden and arent social distancing now
covid19.healthdata.org
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org
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So the Moderna gang wasn't in it for the money? Yeah right. PT Barnum would be proud.
www.npr.org
'Bad Optics' Or Something More? Moderna Executives' Stock Sales Raise Concerns
Moderna is currently developing a promising, yet still unproven, vaccine against the coronavirus. But Moderna executives have already sold tens of millions of dollars worth of stock in the company.
www.npr.org
The jury is still out. Scientists aren’t sure yet. Tough to gauge without going through the seasons outside the beginning of the initial pandemic. Some evidence exists though that it may be somewhat seasonal since it seems like warm/humid weather impacts the virus somewhat and similar viruses are seasonal. But that’s why I said “assumption”. Not everything is black and white.
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Explained: 'Mysterious' decline in Pakistan's Covid-19 cases - Times of India
Pakistan News: NEW DELHI: From a peak of over 6,000 daily Covid-19 cases in mid-June to just 300-odd daily fresh cases in September, Pakistan has witnessed a dramati.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Pakistan seeing a curious decline in cases.
How did the southern hemisphere do this winter? They are done with winter. Was Australia, Argentina, etc. (not near equator) higher or lower due to winter?
I thought I remember flu season in the southern hemisphere was much more mild due to Covid protocols.
The latest IHME (U of Washington) model forecast is even bleaker than the last one, predicting 410K US deaths by the end of the year, which includes 323K by the end of November vs. the 310K predicted by the end of November in the model run from about 12/31/20 vs. 295K deaths 2 weeks ago. This model run shows an acceleration in deaths from now through the end of the year (from the current ~1000/day to ~2000/day in Nov and to ~3000/day in Dec), due to people going back to school, leading to more infections, as well as the return of colder weather driving people back indoors much more, which is part of what sends flu deaths up every year. The model run also includes an even more significant acceleration in deaths from about mid-Nov on, due to an assumed decline in vigilance of the public.
IHME's general assumptions for this model are included below, in italics. Personally, I think they're overstating the increase in death rates, since we've had improved treatments/procedures and I also expect to have even better treatments soon (antibodies), although I don't think vaccines will factor into lowering death rates until January, as I don't think we'll have approval on vaccines until late Nov/Dec (and once we do, rollout will be slow at first). I also think the decline in vigilance is likely overstated. I also don't think they're accounting for the fact that we now likely have 15-25% infected in most major metropolitan areas, which should slow transmissions/deaths down vs. what we've seen.
I thought their estimates from two weeks ago were on the high side, but reasonable (~310K deaths by end of Nov and likely 350K deaths by the end of the year). However, I would think we're more likely to balance out increases due to school/indoor activities and possibly declining vigilance with decreases due to improved treatments and having a decent percentage already infected/immune, so I'd guess we're more likely to continue averaging 1000 deaths/day to bring us to maybe 310K by the end of the year (190K now). When IHME was "low" back in late March, I predicted higher numbers and "hoped" theirs were right; (they weren't, although I was too low also); now that I'm predicting lower numbers than they are, I hope I'm right.
Regardless, neither 410K nor 310K is acceptable to me, so I'd still argue strongly for universal masking and aggressive testing, tracing and isolating (especially if we can roll out 15-minute/frequent testing to catch infections in real time and isolate those folks) and continued slow reopenings (especially around here). I'd much rather not assume we're going to have cures/vaccines as soon as many think we might - including me - I'd rather plan for the downside and hope for the upside.
Finally NY is projected to reach 41.6K deaths by the end of the year and 35.5K deaths by the end of November (up from 32.7K deaths by the end of Nov in the last model run), while NJ is projected to reach 17.8K deaths by the end of the year and 16.6K deaths by the end of November (up from 16.3K deaths by the end of Nov in the last model run); the rates are fairly low until the end of Nov, given high mask/distancing compliance in this area, but those are fairly significant bumps up in Dec, so they must be assuming a decline in compliance. The graphics don't add any additional info so aren't included here. There are a ton of details and interesting graphics in the 2nd link.
- We extended our forecasts to January 1. We expect the daily death rate in the United States, because of seasonality and declining vigilance of the public, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December. Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 410,000; this is 225,000 deaths from now until the end of the year.
- If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, namely no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1, then the death toll could increase to 620,000 by January 1. Compared to the reference scenario, this would be 210,000 more deaths from now to the end of the year.
- Increasing mask use remains an extraordinary opportunity for the US. Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 288,000, or 122,000 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 30% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
COVID-19 estimation updates | United States
Read about IHME’s latest COVID-19 forecasts for the United States.www.healthdata.org
I concur. I think it is overstated. My guess would be the 300k range. And of course that number is hard to digest compared to even the worst FLU seasons.
I ‘m sure any flu related deaths this coming season will be categorized as covdid 19 suspected .Just seems strange how if we are doing all these suggested things that the next 2-3 months the deaths will be more than these 6-7 months... so how is that possible ?
Its not..its full out garbage they put this out...it really takes none of what is going on right now into consideration
Watching the Phillies Mets game and they just had a commercial about supporting local restaurants and local businesses. They used the closure of one of the great neighborhood restaurants in NYC that had to close permanently. Coogans in Washington Heights. One of my favorite places to visit. Legendary. Some of the clowns on here poo-poo local businesses losses and talk about how good the big box stores are killing it. Idiots everyone of them.
Current 7dma for deaths in the US is 898. And has dropped about 20% since the 2nd wave peak on August 3rd.
Nothing in September should cause a change in the current trend. Doubt we see much of an increase in Oct. So let's say we average 800 deaths per day through October. That would be 46K additional death on top of the 192K current deaths putting us as 238K on Nov 1st.
Getting back to 1000K deaths a day through Dec and Jan would get us to 300K We'd have to get over 2500 deaths per day to get to 400K. Would take one hell of a spike, and then continued ignoring of the situation to get to that level. Just don't see it happening.
Nothing in September should cause a change in the current trend. Doubt we see much of an increase in Oct. So let's say we average 800 deaths per day through October. That would be 46K additional death on top of the 192K current deaths putting us as 238K on Nov 1st.
Getting back to 1000K deaths a day through Dec and Jan would get us to 300K We'd have to get over 2500 deaths per day to get to 400K. Would take one hell of a spike, and then continued ignoring of the situation to get to that level. Just don't see it happening.
So why before we see a situation such as what happened in metro NY & NJ would someone release a BS report based upon no real factual proof of spread or a 2nd / 3rd wave especially with improved initial care even the treatment of cytokine in severely ill. Just another way to push an agenda of fear.
But but but...we’re wearing masks, socially spreading apart and washing our hands 25 times per day... didn’t you and others strongly suggest as well as other super science buffs that this would help stop the spread and deaths? Now nobody not even #’s has answered how would that occur other than transferring flu incidents into COVID 19 stats. And once again ...why wear a mask ?
Clear answer is that instead of 1 millions deaths we will have 300K.
It's true these measures do not wipe out covid entirely(especially when we don't strictly adhere to them), but they do limit deaths by a significant #.
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Don't know. Fauci told us very early on not to pay much attention to the models. Follow the data.
Your math is way off. No country will reach those numbers. Fear monger post like this means you buying into crap.
Well 200 + k deaths between now and Jan.1 2021 ( 3 months) sure could it happen yes but how was this number formulated.
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