Expect at least another year of COVID-19. Politicize it all you want or need to. But science wins out.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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Science, like Fauci saying we can vote in person!
I expect Covid19 to be around for many years along with a few others ...I’m sure some of our constituents are happily working on them as we speak... and maybe in our own country as we really have some sick diabolical actors...learn to live with it or shrivel up and die ... it’s your choice.
Call out whatever you want - was asking you to at least provide clear, coherent sentences when you do so, which you struggle with. Also, are you saying my estimate of 310K deaths by the end of the year vs. IHME's estimate of 410K deaths by the end of the year is doom and gloom? What about my prediction, since March, that we'd have an approved vaccine by the end of the year, which most thought was not doable, but is now looking likely? And that convalescent plasma would work pretty well and that engineered antibodies will work even better, soon? Or my prediction that deaths in wave 2 would be in the range of 1/3-2/3 what they were in wave 1 (per capita), which has been mostly correct?
These same experts were predicting 3MM deaths. The must really love working from home.
No and neither do you - maybe try looking things up for a change to avoid making more foolish posts. The first IHME model predicted 81K deaths (with a range of 38-162K, given very high uncertainties, plus we only had about 1000 deaths at that point) through June back in late March (I was at 85K); we ended up with 130K through the end of June, so seems like it was a pretty decent projection to me.
There were plenty of other modelers sharing "worst case" models of 1-3MM deaths in the US, which were not out of line with what could happen, if there were no interventions/cures/vaccines and with 50-80% infected and 0.5-1.0% of the infected dying (830K-2640K dead). Fortunately, we've had somewhat effective interventions and our procedures/treatments are making a big difference in wave 2 and hopefully we'll have a vaccine in a few months, although we could have done so much better. But those numbers were not "wrong" given the assumptions.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
Just read this beauty from an article in today's Washington Post. "Japan says inaccurate tests can do more harm than good. Last week, Spain stopped using test kits imported from China after finding they had an accuracy rate of only 30 percent."...rutgers.forums.rivals.com
Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June -Washington University analysis
HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/USA-FORECAST (TV):Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June -Washington University analysisnews.trust.org
Obviously, Cali is as stupid as Proud. Do people just not read or do they really enjoy making shit up this much?
Someone didn’t learn their lesson last banning.
+1
Reported his unprovoked personal attack.
It depends upon what the meaning of the word 'is' is.
😀
This nation needs to battle the most dangerous health problem we have.....obesity:
One man’s battle shows why covid-19 and obesity are a toxic mix
Eight months into the pandemic, obesity has turned out to be one of the clearest predictors of a difficult battle against covid-19, for reasons that may vary from person to person. Some experts say they consider obesity to have contributed to the stunning coronavirus death and morbidity rate in the United States, which has one of the highest obesity rates in the world. And there is some evidence it is particularly harmful for people under 60, who generally fare better than the elderly against the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
A constellation of factors can influence a patient’s outcome: Fat can physically compress parts of the lungs, impeding respiration. In the hospital, it can make calculating medication doses, inserting intravenous tubes and moving patients more difficult. It can stimulate parts of the body’s hormonal system, worsening covid-19, a disease that often provokes a powerful inflammatory response itself. And it is associated with a wide range of comorbidities, from heart disease to diabetes, that increase vulnerability to the worst impacts of the infection.
One man’s battle shows why covid-19 and obesity are a toxic mix
Eight months into the pandemic, obesity has turned out to be one of the clearest predictors of a difficult battle against covid-19, for reasons that may vary from person to person. Some experts say they consider obesity to have contributed to the stunning coronavirus death and morbidity rate in the United States, which has one of the highest obesity rates in the world. And there is some evidence it is particularly harmful for people under 60, who generally fare better than the elderly against the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
A constellation of factors can influence a patient’s outcome: Fat can physically compress parts of the lungs, impeding respiration. In the hospital, it can make calculating medication doses, inserting intravenous tubes and moving patients more difficult. It can stimulate parts of the body’s hormonal system, worsening covid-19, a disease that often provokes a powerful inflammatory response itself. And it is associated with a wide range of comorbidities, from heart disease to diabetes, that increase vulnerability to the worst impacts of the infection.
lol. So you’re dishonest too. Man, what a gem.
Lying again. Never said nothing to worry about - in late Jan/early Feb I was saying it wouldn't be worse than the flu. That was wrong, as I've said several times, but for some reason you keep bringing it up. Petty.
@bac2therac @Caliknight @T2Kplus10 - it's funny how you guys all post in unison - guess the CE board troll signal must have gone up and y'all responded in lockstep. Congrats on getting the CE board shut down, the CE board experiment on the other site shut down, and countless threads on this board locked. And good luck with your efforts to get this thread locked. Part of me hopes you're successful, as it'll certainly free up some of my time, but I also know there are quite a few folks who seem to like this thread. You guys must be so proud of your accomplishments.
I was only working off your theory that they would count flu deaths as covid deaths.
I have no idea if they do that, would like to think they don't, but would not be shocked if there is some level of that.
But even if they did, it doesn't add to the total in a significant way.
We've been over this but I'll lay it out again. There was and continues to be a shortage of masks, especially N95 masks. People were hoarding PPE much like they were hoarding paper towels and toilet paper. As noted in another recent thread there are still paper towel (and lysol, and wipes) shortages. Likewise there are still N95 mask shortages.
Fauci noted very early on he was hedging his message in order to preserve the proper PPE for front line workers. He noted it again more recently before congress.
Some people can't come to grips with what he was doing. Given I know frontline workers who were treating covid patients while have to reuse their N95 masks, I am able to understand what he was doing.
What is the probability that we'll have a vaccine by the end of the year or is that absolutely certain? When we do get one, how effective is it going to be? 50%? Maybe you've already stated this, but forgive me, I haven't read every single post in the thread.
No problem, it's hard to keep up. Made a long vaccine overview post the other night, linked below. End of the year is not certain - unfortunately, nothing in clinical research is certain, which is why we do the studies - even though the vaccines all look good against animals and are prompting good immune responses in early human trials, we simply can't know safety and efficacy until we have results from the large phase III trials, ongoing. Having said that, I'd say it's a very high probability several to most of the vaccines will work well enough to be approved (>50% efficacy) and that a few of those will be approved by the end of the year.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
Interesting article on Oak Ridge National Lab's Bradykinin Storm Hypothesis, and possible new treatments based on their findings. https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
Edit: here's the short link - https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...es-interventions-and-more.198855/post-4686168
@DJ Spanky - any idea why the text that one sees in the "long" link is not from the actual post? It's actually the correct link.
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Cases in the US, after decreasing for a month after hitting 2nd wave peak in late July, have levelled off in the in 42-43K range over the last 2 weeks.
Deaths do continue it's downward trend, down to 856 7dma as of yesterday. 3 week rule of thumb says that could continue to drop for another week or so before it too levels off.
Don't see a clear concentration of new cases in any particular state. Whats more apparent is the levelling off has occured despite lowering cases in the big 3 states of FL TX and CA during that time. So looks like a wider, but slower spread, which is more preferable as it also spreads the weight it exerts on the respective hospitals over a wider range.
Deaths do continue it's downward trend, down to 856 7dma as of yesterday. 3 week rule of thumb says that could continue to drop for another week or so before it too levels off.
Don't see a clear concentration of new cases in any particular state. Whats more apparent is the levelling off has occured despite lowering cases in the big 3 states of FL TX and CA during that time. So looks like a wider, but slower spread, which is more preferable as it also spreads the weight it exerts on the respective hospitals over a wider range.
No problem, it's hard to keep up. Made a long vaccine overview post the other night, linked below. End of the year is not certain - unfortunately, nothing in clinical research is certain, which is why we do the studies - even though the vaccines all look good against animals and are prompting good immune responses in early human trials, we simply can't know safety and efficacy until we have results from the large phase III trials, ongoing. Having said that, I'd say it's a very high probability several to most of the vaccines will work well enough to be approved (>50% efficacy) and that a few of those will be approved by the end of the year.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
Interesting article on Oak Ridge National Lab's Bradykinin Storm Hypothesis, and possible new treatments based on their findings. https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63
Edit: here's the short link - https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...es-interventions-and-more.198855/post-4686168
@DJ Spanky - any idea why the text that one sees in the "long" link is not from the actual post? It's actually the correct link.
This all sounds very promising. I pray (meaning I really, really hope) it happens.
No praying is ok and good even for those who tell us it’s bogus.
The other thing to keep in mind is that even if vaccines aren’t broadly available by Year end, there will likely be new treatments available via engineered antibodies and antivirals in pill form. That will also help put people’s minds at ease.
No , I understand the semantics and why he said it but it caused a tremendous conflict and confusion amongst 335 million Americans... Did not Dr .Jerome Adams unfortunately do similar? It was a serious error in judgement by two highly regarded medical authorities. They get paid NOT to make statements which in reality were false and confusing . To excuse Anthony Fauci is wrong since people placed him on a pedestal of power. Not so much today. Anthony Fauci was unable to keep his own political views and controversial opinions under control . Highly intelligent but sometimes aloof and coy in his demeanor . Shall we say , “ sly as fox” ? , and it doesn’t mean he’s evil in this at all .
I don't know if people were truly confused by Fauci or if they have just seized on his tactical decision as a reason to not wear masks(or another reason to bitch about them).
The idea that some people were going to happily wear masks for the next 5 months(and counting) if Fauci had only said so in February is pretty comical.
Not really... though I agree some will always be anti mask in their thinking manyothers may have said maybe we should listen... we’ll never know now ...funny I took my grandchild to Johnson Park to see the animals yesterday...still quite nice... there were also many people and still some were not wearing masks though they bunched into others feeding the Deer, goats and her favorites the horses... some older some younger and some kids... outside and most did space But some could have cared less to ” socially separate themselves”.
And social distancing is something the experts have been very strong on since day 1. So the public is going to bristle against and not fully comply to restrictions. I understand the why, and I even think there is good in that.
But I will argue against the idea that Fauci should be forever discredited because of an admitted tactical move from very early on in the timeline.
Who is giving Fauci a lifetime discredit? Just saying he made an error when we least could afford it.
It's only an error if you thought it was more important for the public, and not the medical professionals, to get the masks.
And not to be petty but:
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Don’t twist words... he could have said that... succinctly and with control... I have never and most on this board have never questioned those people working in hospitals and testing or denied them proper equipment... you realize your attempt at changing the conversation back to my inability to understand their needs... having worked as a combat medic and in hospitals, medi vac and surgical rooms I get it... what’s your qualifications if I may ask ?
I work retail, saw hoarding at its peak, and we are still unable to get N95 masks.
When you say Fauci could have said this succinctly and with control I think you are discounting how irrational the public can be. The rush was already on. Hospitals were already short.
No , I have said previously there is and always will be those who are against certain protocols. That is what our nation was based upon contrary to some in their basements and living with mom n dad... in some instances it’s nice but for most parents it better be a good reason why . Going to college was for 4 years or maybe more to get a masters but now the common is 5-6 in many cases.How many on here would have been embarrassed or their parents would have told them if you are not going to school“ get a job” or join the military... now it’s because things are not the same.. actually I believe my generation and those 42- 55 had more options... however the comfortability is too easy to turn down... sleep in, eat, workout and party is not a bad way when your 18-27 years old.
I have been able to if I wish get N95 masks over several months... I use other masks recommended for most daily things and keep the others for more congested or high risk areas.It is an excuse to label all the public as irrational that in itself is a falsehood used to give pardon to where the real fault came from... both past and current state and federal authorities... now we see people making claims they have instituted bills to make sure this doesn’t happen in our state... Did this clown just wake up from his 25 year sleep?
Problem is that wasn't the only "error" by St Anthony:
Now he (and Dr. Birx) have publicly stated that they underestimated chicomvirus early on because of the lack of vital information either covered-up or fumbled by the WHO and China. Somehow the big lib media gives St Anthony--and even the CHICOMS!!!!!-- a pass but not POTUS who was being guided by the top scientists and health officials in the US government.
Maybe we should stop holding people to things they said in the midst of a global pandemic where things change on a daily basis.
Like a battle in war or a football game, actions on the ground dictate adjustments.
How about some of you stop attacking Numbers because you don't like his politics?
Like a battle in war or a football game, actions on the ground dictate adjustments.
How about some of you stop attacking Numbers because you don't like his politics?
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