was so wrapped up with work stuff, forgot about the Wisconsin game. Good thing. If only the blizzard of 1996 repeated . . . .
OT: Minor to Moderate Snow Possible on Monday, 1/6 (uncertainty high); also 1-2" Fri, 1/3 Philly to AC and SW of there
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That's actually a good graphic, but it likely won't stop yahoos from posting premature accumulation maps all over the internet.
One could make the case that forecasting has become worse over time. But perhaps weather patterns are more unpredictable than in the past, or with social media and rapid reactions, people are more hyperfocused on any snow event and react badly when the forecast is inaccurate. Or a combination of both.
I think there is more early information available through various models and people misinterpret or misuse it.
Yes. The science is *much* better than it used to be. But that doesn't let us know days in advance exactly what is going to happen.
Yes, and I think as long as people understand and accept that, it's fine to put that stuff out there. It's good to have the info, you just can't overreact or prematurely react to it. There's also a segment of society (as Knight Shift pointed out) that becomes angry if things don't pan out exactly as predicted, which is nuts.
This is completely wrong. Forecasting and models have improved tremendously over the last 25 years as I've posted about many times (including in response to you saying the same thing above elsewhere). To reiterate though, 4 day forecasts now are as accurate as 1 day forecasts were 30 years ago (for 500 mbar pressure fields, which are a key component for predicting the weather), and forecast track errors for tropical cyclones have improved tremendously over the last 50 and 25 years, as per below.
https://ourworldindata.org/weather-forecasts
And yesterday's storm was also a good example, as we knew there was going to be a significant snowstorm from the midwest through the east coast 6-7 days in advance and while there was clearly some uncertainty on where the heaviest snow would be, in the big picture the forecast was pretty good from the midwest to the east coast. In contrast we're nowhere near that level of certainty for the 1/11 event, but there are reasons for that: below is an excellent analysis by Tomer Burg, including why the system for 1/11 is much more complex and unpredictable 5 days out than yesterday's storm was.
Hey man, not completely wrong on this part:This is completely wrong. Forecasting and models have improved tremendously over the last 25 years as I've posted about many times (including in response to you saying the same thing above elsewhere). To reiterate though, 4 day forecasts now are as accurate as 1 day forecasts were 30 years ago (for 500 mbar pressure fields, which are a key component for predicting the weather), and forecast track errors for tropical cyclones have improved tremendously over the last 50 and 25 years, as per below.
https://ourworldindata.org/weather-forecasts
And yesterday's storm was also a good example, as we knew there was going to be a significant snowstorm from the midwest through the east coast 6-7 days in advance and while there was clearly some uncertainty on where the heaviest snow would be, in the big picture the forecast was pretty good from the midwest to the east coast. In contrast we're nowhere near that level of certainty for the 1/11 event, but there are reasons for that: below is an excellent analysis by Tomer Burg, including why the system for 1/11 is much more complex and unpredictable 5 days out than yesterday's storm was.
"or with social media and rapid reactions, people are more hyperfocused on any snow event and react badly when the forecast is inaccurate."
Maybe that could be refined to "when the forecast is perceived to be inaccurate."
Yesterday was a good example with me. I use this board and weather threads as a mental microbreak from work, and I do breeze through some of the posts, not fully appreciating/interpreting the particularly long posts--who are these people with the very long posts? 😉 Maybe I should stay focused on my work but:
Well you know I was only replying to the first part, as I don't care that much about the 2nd part, per se - there's certainly truth to what you said about social media and overreactions to forecast inaccuracy, but while it's annoying, it has zero to do with the science. People also have completely unrealistic expectations of the capability of forecasting, saying models suck or the NWS or forecaster X sucks when forecasts 3+ days out are changing and don't end up being that accurate.Hey man, not completely wrong on this part:
"or with social media and rapid reactions, people are more hyperfocused on any snow event and react badly when the forecast is inaccurate."
Maybe that could be refined to "when the forecast is perceived to be inaccurate."
Yesterday was a good example with me. I use this board and weather threads as a mental microbreak from work, and I do breeze through some of the posts, not fully appreciating/interpreting the particularly long posts--who are these people with the very long posts? 😉 Maybe I should stay focused on my work but:
Just look at this storm. The first NWS map, almost 3 days before the event, below, was pretty good for what occurred (first graphic showing actual accumulations) for areas N of 80 and for areas S of Wilmington to AC, but was definitely off a bit to a fair amount between those two lines, and especially between 276/195 and Philly to Toms River, but it's not like nothing was predicted and folks got 6" or vice- versa - sure, many were thinking 3-5" for lots of locations S of 276/195 and only got about 2", but that's not worth screaming about. And the Sunday afternoon map was pretty good for those N of 276/195 and S of Wilmington-AC and was closer to what happened between those lines than the 3-day forecast was, but the day before forecast was clearly a fair amount off for Philly-Toms River to Wilmington-AC (but was closer).
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Forecasts are a lot more accurate but social media gives ignorant people a podium. 25 years back if there was an 80% chance of precipitation and we had a dry day it was no big deal. Because that would happen 20% of the time. Today thousands of ignorant people run around social media calling the forecasters idiots for getting it wrong.
Agreed. Perhaps we also have to keep in mind that the difference between 2 and 5 inches of snow is a difference of the equivalent of 0.3 inches of rain. No one would ever expect a rain forecast to be that precise.Well you know I was only replying to the first part, as I don't care that much about the 2nd part, per se - there's certainly truth to what you said about social media and overreactions to forecast inaccuracy, but while it's annoying, it has zero to do with the science. People also have completely unrealistic expectations of the capability of forecasting, saying models suck or the NWS or forecaster X sucks when forecasts 3+ days out are changing and don't end up being that accurate.
Just look at this storm. The first NWS map, almost 3 days before the event, below, was pretty good for what occurred for areas N of 80 and for areas S of Wilmington to AC, but was definitely off a bit to a fair amount between those two lines, and especially between 276/195 and Philly to Toms River, but it's not like nothing was predicted and folks got 6" or vice- versa - sure, many were thinking 3-5" for lots of locations S of 276/195 and only got about 2", but that's not worth screaming about. And the Sunday afternoon map was pretty good for those N of 276/195 and S of Wilmington-AC and was closer to what happened between those lines than the 3-day forecast was, but the day before forecast was clearly a fair amount off for Philly-Toms River to Wilmington-AC (but was closer).
Of course social media also gives us a podium as Rutgers fans. I'll leave it to others to decide if we are "ignorant people."
Yes! You've been reading me whining about that for years, lol. Biggest example is summertime t-storms. Imagine the hue and cry if one town got 18" of snow and 2 towns over got 4" of snow and 2 more towns over got nada - that's what we see the equivalent of in the summer, but nobody really complains much, since it's just rain.
Reminds me of what I heard a TV weatherman say when my family moved to Orlando -- "'a 30% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon' means that 30% of the area will get thunderstorms!"
On this forum, a handful of idiots make thousands of posts mocking forecasts that are not 100% precise, making weather threads less pleasant.
True, but why so much anger and vitriol aimed at the NWS/mets and me? I don't get angry at you or mock you when I disagree with a hoops game summary or when you get predictions/bracketology wrong (in fact I give you props regularly), so why don't I get the same consideration with weather posts? And I'm not saying you have to agree with me, just to disagree amicably. I just don't get it.
Not specific to any single poster, but having seen this in person enough, generally unhappy people take their anger out on random things and people, particularly people who project happiness with their own lives. In bac's case, he seems to have decent weather chops, and I think he just enjoys going back and forth with you. Maybe I don't read closely enough, I don't see it as vitriol, just intense debate?
omg please why do you to defend the nws honor, this isnt the weather board you dont have to protect them, are you their press secretary, you remind me of someone, who is it @Knight Shift whats er name.....they have a job to get things right, if they cant they should be replaced by those who can.
But what you don't understand and may never understand is that it's impossible to "get things right" with winter storms in these parts more than some of the time. Impossible. It's not like others get them right and the NWS doesn't. Your inability to understand the limitations of the science, despite how far that science has actually come is why you regularly get booted from the weather boards for badgering and trolling.
These fires probably could use a thread - terrible tragedy out in LA and winds won't die down until tomorrow night. 30,000 evacuated so far, hundreds of homes/buildings and one school burned and with 80 mph winds, all of the fire team aircraft are grounded. Saw one estimate of the fire consuming 5 football fields per minute.
https://www.latimes.com/california/live/pacific-palisades-fire-updates-los-angeles
I tell all of my new guys one of the first thing to do when you get out of the car at the firehouse is to look at the Flagpole: what is it doing, what direction is the Flag moving, etc.
