OT: Minor to Moderate Snowfall for Most Fri Night/Sat morning; then a frigid few days
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Glad we are GTFO of NJ, and looks like it will warm up a bit when we get back before the New Year.
The NWS (map below) did expand their 1-2" areas SE-ward to the 95 corridor (with the 1" line being along 95) in response to the increased snowfall from the model consensus last night (including the UK/Euro), plus this morning's 6Z models almost all are showing similar 1-2" output for just about all of CNJ/NNJ/NEPA (i.e., N of 276/195, except near the coast). For areas SE of 95 towards the coast, even up into NYC/LI, the models are all over the place from very little to 1-2", so those areas will be the most difficult part of the forecast, as warm air will likely hold on longer and keep accumulations down. The NBM (model blend) is below. Bust potential both high and low is pretty high, as there are models showing both more and less snow than forecast, plus it’s impossible to pinpoint where some of the heavier snow bands will set up (if at all).
But it at least looks like just about everyone in the Philly-NJ-NYC region (except probably SE of Philly in SNJ) is going to at least get 1/2", which is still noteworthy, as this will be the first accumulating snow for most, with the 95-corridor to the coast likely not getting much accumulating snow this afternoon and evening until after 10-11 pm with light intensity and temps above 32F until then. Areas N of 78 and NW of 287 look like they'll get 2" to maybe 3" in spots (as they'll get more accumulating snow in the afternoon/evening) and the Poconos might get up to 4"; the Poconos is the only place with winter weather advisories (for 3" or more) as of now.
And anything that's on the ground as of late Saturday afternoon will stick around for a bit, so shovel any paved surfaces before then, as it's going to get pretty damn cold from Saturday through Monday with highs Sunday/Monday below 32F and lows in the teens and windchills even lower. Could be some light snow for areas N of 78 on Christmas Eve, but light rain likely south of there, as temps warm up into the upper 30s/low 40s.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...area-periodic-minor-accumulative-snow/page/5/
Last edited:
Done! I actually needed milk yesterday...really I did.
Does that mean you have more time for making weather posts on the board? Would be great, as your knowledge and insights are always much appreciated. But stick to weather, not analysis of common sense in NJ - nobody can predict that, lol...
Omg don't say that. Your voice from North Plainfield is just as prescient as the one from Metuchen
what do you know, you leave yellow stains on the pristine white cotton landscape without a second thought
I think that dog has pulled that one before - look how he makes his getaway.Sounds like a training issue.
Most of us will see occasional light snow/mix through the afternoon, but little to no accumulation as it's just too warm except well NW. Unless we get unexpected higher intensity snow (only the NAM is showing that).
Yeah, loads of fun, currently on the LIE and thinking about retirement nonstop lol
Have had occasional very light snow/rain mix for a few hours with no accumulation at 36-37F, but we're under a light-to-moderate snow band right now and temps are down to 35F (more precip cools the column a bit) and we're getting some stickage on cars/grass, but my guess is this band will be short lived so would be surprised if we get more than 1/4" or so. I'm assuming this will continue without much accumulation until at least early evening when temps drop a bit more, plus there won't be any indirect sunlight impact (much less on the shortest day of the year, but not zero). Sticking with my 1.25" snowfall guesstimate for the event.
Most of the models at 12Z are still showing most of the accumulating snow (1-2" for most; less SE of 95 and maybe up to 3" well NW) happening after 9-10 pm. The coastal low off of Norfolk, VA is exploding, but while the track is looking further west than expected a day or two ago, it's still too far east for much snow in our area; far eastern LI and SE New England could get hammered though with 3-6" - but the track being further west might mean more chance of the inverted trough between the low and the approaching clipper from the west, which could mean some localized bands putting down 3" or more for a few folks in our area (not sure where yet).
Most of the models at 12Z are still showing most of the accumulating snow (1-2" for most; less SE of 95 and maybe up to 3" well NW) happening after 9-10 pm. The coastal low off of Norfolk, VA is exploding, but while the track is looking further west than expected a day or two ago, it's still too far east for much snow in our area; far eastern LI and SE New England could get hammered though with 3-6" - but the track being further west might mean more chance of the inverted trough between the low and the approaching clipper from the west, which could mean some localized bands putting down 3" or more for a few folks in our area (not sure where yet).
Last edited:
Temp is down to 34F and we're getting some stickage on cars/grass and I was even able to make a snowball, lol. Maybe 1/8" so far. I'm still assuming this will continue without much accumulation until at least early evening when temps drop a bit more, plus there won't be any indirect sunlight impact (much less on the shortest day of the year, but not zero, especially with temps above 32F and lighter intensity). NWS still expecting most of the accumulating snow (a whole inch or so) to occur after 10 pm near/along 95.
It is certainly looking pretty outside, been coming down since early this morning.
The NWS (map below) did expand their 1-2" areas SE-ward to the 95 corridor (with the 1" line being along 95) in response to the increased snowfall from the model consensus last night (including the UK/Euro), plus this morning's 6Z models almost all are showing similar 1-2" output for just about all of CNJ/NNJ/NEPA (i.e., N of 276/195, except near the coast). For areas SE of 95 towards the coast, even up into NYC/LI, the models are all over the place from very little to 1-2", so those areas will be the most difficult part of the forecast, as warm air will likely hold on longer and keep accumulations down. The NBM (model blend) is below. Bust potential both high and low is pretty high, as there are models showing both more and less snow than forecast, plus it’s impossible to pinpoint where some of the heavier snow bands will set up (if at all).
But it at least looks like just about everyone in the Philly-NJ-NYC region (except probably SE of Philly in SNJ) is going to at least get 1/2", which is still noteworthy, as this will be the first accumulating snow for most, with the 95-corridor to the coast likely not getting much accumulating snow this afternoon and evening until after 10-11 pm with light intensity and temps above 32F until then. Areas N of 78 and NW of 287 look like they'll get 2" to maybe 3" in spots (as they'll get more accumulating snow in the afternoon/evening) and the Poconos might get up to 4"; the Poconos is the only place with winter weather advisories (for 3" or more) as of now.
And anything that's on the ground as of late Saturday afternoon will stick around for a bit, so shovel any paved surfaces before then, as it's going to get pretty damn cold from Saturday through Monday with highs Sunday/Monday below 32F and lows in the teens and windchills even lower. Could be some light snow for areas N of 78 on Christmas Eve, but light rain likely south of there, as temps warm up into the upper 30s/low 40s.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...area-periodic-minor-accumulative-snow/page/5/
NWS updated their snowfall map for the region, extending the 1-2" swath through all of CNJ and NENJ and into NYC, with 2-3" still forecast along/N of 78 (and NW of 287). This is because the interaction between the clipper from the west and the bombing low well off the DelMarVa is expected to give us a little bit more precip from this evening through about sunrise, with most of that being snow as temps drop to around 32F for most, allowing accumulations, probably even on untreated roads in most locations.
Lee Goldberg also expanded his 1-3" swath to include all of CNJ (mostly 1-2" really), except areas east of the Parkway in Monmouth/Ocean and east of the NJTPK from about Carteret to the GWB, where he has about 1" or so and less for NYC/LI (due to less precip). Not a major snowstorm, but people should certainly be careful on the roads tonight and tomorrow morning, should we get forecasted snowfall amounts.
Stiil snowing mostly lightly here with no more accumulation, as temps are still 34F, but the sun is setting, so temps should drop towards 32F for the 95 corridor by 9-11 pm, allowing any snow to fall to accumulate after that, whereas accumulation will be more intensity dependent from now until then (and with light intensity, probably not much accumulation along/near 95 and SE of there until mid-evening).
Last edited:
Nice - looks like maybe 1" or so? Quite a difference temp makes, as it's been around 32F up by you in Wayne vs. 34-36F this afternoon in Metuchen and most of CNJ.It is certainly looking pretty outside, been coming down since early this morning.
meh...not impressed and neither is the 18z gfs or nam for that matter
the HRRR is the most bullish model producing in the wee hours of the morning but they are already off on snowfall totals currently
the HRRR is the most bullish model producing in the wee hours of the morning but they are already off on snowfall totals currently
We're up in the hills in Wayne, so usually were 3-4 degrees colder than the reported temperature. Currently sitting at 29° up here, been hovering around that all day.
You know how ridiculously bad the NAM has been all day, so why would you even cite that source? The short-term, mesoscale, convection-allowing models are usually the way to go for a 12-18 hour forecast and every hourly run of the HRRR and RAP (and the 18Z NAM3K) is showing 1-2" for almost all of NNJ/CNJ. Doesn't guarantee they're right, but it's better than going with 3 hour old runs of the GFS and the crappy NAM. We'll see of course.
My guess is anyone who gets more than 2" will have snow in shaded areas and maybe some residual in unshaded areas (but not paved surfaces) through Tuesday night and into Weds am given it won't go above 32F again until Tuesday afternoon and even that is just mid-30s for most in CNJ (and below 32F Tues night; could also be another dusting/coatingTues morning for folks along/N of 78). For folks who get <1", most or all will likely be gone. For the 1-2" folks, probably some left, but not a lot.
Dave Curran says he will up his totals for Middlesex Mercer Somerset Hunterdon going towards 2-4
well the hrrr at 18z said there would be an inch already near nyc..how did that turn out
now it has 2-3 inches by tomorrow morning from my area to trenton
He didn't say that, even though I wish he had for selfish reasons. He upped totals out towards the Delaware River to 2-4" as per the map (which is very similar to Lee Goldberg's which I posted above) and while they don't forecast for PA, this would obviously include Philly and its nearby PA burbs. They still barely have 1" for the 95 corridor from NB to NYC. We'll see...
Radar starting to fill in again towards 95 - we just need a few hours of moderate snow (1/4-1/2" per hour rates) to get 1-2". It's not really that much snow. Already have 1-2" in the Lehigh Valley and NW Philly suburbs and it's accumulating in Philly and nearby SNJ.
NWS updated discussion sounds like the inverted trough feature will be from SENJ to Philly and up to the Lehigh Valley, where they've had 1-2", although they're not changing snowfall forecasts yet - they might need to...
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
639 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2024
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 PM, an upper air analysis showed a trough axis nearly
over our area with strong vorticity advection moving through.
This is helping to provide ample forcing for ascent and
widespread precipitation across most of the area. It has been
drier down in Delmarva but some radar returns continue to
develop there. Much of the precipitation is in the form of snow
as cooling continues to arrived from the west, although some
lingering rain closest to the coast which should mix with and
change to some snow at times. Snowfall amounts have been as high
as 1 to nearly 2 inches in parts of the Lehigh Valley area so
far. There is a weak surface trough from southeast New Jersey
northwestward to near Philadelphia then into the Lehigh Valley.
It is roughly in this zone where additional snow may become
more focused through the overnight. Overall, no significant
changes made to the forecast with this update.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
639 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2024
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 PM, an upper air analysis showed a trough axis nearly
over our area with strong vorticity advection moving through.
This is helping to provide ample forcing for ascent and
widespread precipitation across most of the area. It has been
drier down in Delmarva but some radar returns continue to
develop there. Much of the precipitation is in the form of snow
as cooling continues to arrived from the west, although some
lingering rain closest to the coast which should mix with and
change to some snow at times. Snowfall amounts have been as high
as 1 to nearly 2 inches in parts of the Lehigh Valley area so
far. There is a weak surface trough from southeast New Jersey
northwestward to near Philadelphia then into the Lehigh Valley.
It is roughly in this zone where additional snow may become
more focused through the overnight. Overall, no significant
changes made to the forecast with this update.
I'd drink some scotch to celebrate the first snowfall of the season!It is certainly looking pretty outside, been coming down since early this morning.
Similar threads
