Minor to Moderate Snow Tues Night (2/11)/Weds Morning, especially south of 80 (all snow)
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true dat homie, i may even crash the Melody Reunion
Was in a rush before and missed that the NWS had put SE Bucks, Mercer and Monmouth under advisories for 3-5", along with Ocean Burlington, Gloucester and Camden. That means if the storm overperforms a bit, 3+" could get up to 78 for Middlesex (3" is right along the SE border now) and maybe Somerset; Hunterdon might be too far west in that scenario.
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Do it!! And @WhiteBus should attend also and a few others I'm sure...
🌭Was in a rush before and missed that the NWS had put SE Bucks, Mercer and Monmouth under advisories for 3-5", along with Ocean Burlington, Gloucester and Camden. That means if the storm overperforms a bit, 3+" could get up to 78 for Middlesex (3" is right along the SE border now) and maybe Somerset; Hunterdon might be too far west in that scenario.
NWS updated map is below and it increases snowfall just a tad for most vs. this morning, moving the 3" line further north to about Trenton to Sandy Hook and moving the 2" line north to about Frenchtown to Central Park and increased amounts decently for SEPA/SNJ and put warnings up for 4-6" for Cumberland, Atlantic and Cape May counties, and advisories for 2-4" for Philly/SEPA and all of SNJ south of Mercer/Monmouth. Should be a nice dry, fluffy snow for a change for everyone and will accumulate immediately with temps below 32F everywhere; the Weds am rush hour could be difficult (and conditions will likely be slippery starting Tuesday evening).
No significant modeling or forecast change for wave 1, this evening through Thursday sunrise, as per the updated snowfall map below; the 1" and 2" lines were nudged northward maybe 5 miles each vs. yesterday, while the 4" and 6" lines were nudged a few miles south. No change in the advisories (2-5" for Mercer/Monmouth and south of there in NJ and for 2-4" for SE PA from Lower Bucks SE to DE) or warnings (4-7" for Cumberland, Atlantic and Cape May). This will be all snow (and a dry, fluffy snow with likely somewhat high snow ratios of 1.2-1.3" snow per inch of liquid) for the event for everyone with temps <32F (and the snow falling at night) so every flake will accumulate on all untreated surfaces and slippery driving conditions will result through the Weds am rush hour even for areas that only get 1" or so.
This is a difficult forecast for northern areas especially for areas along/N of 78 as this area is the battleground between dry/cold air to the north and the moisture/snow from the storm well off the coast and is the area most prone to busting low or high - we're between the HRRR which shows very little snow north of 276/195 and the NAM/NAM3K which show a bit more snow than the NWS maps, with most recent 6Z and 0Z models showing snowfall amounts similar or maybe a bit less than the NWS maps. Will definitely be a radar-watching event there and even south of there to a line from Philly to Trenton to Sandy Hook (the 3" line), which is where the heavier snows start with 3" or more. The excerpt below from the NWS discussion is why they're on the slightly bullish side even for northern areas:
Plenty of large scale forcing will result in an expanding precipitation shield late Wednesday and especially during Wednesday night. A strengthening low-level jet will also enhance the lift for a time Wednesday night.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ads-for-each-will-be-added-as-needed/page/22/
The risk of a major bust low just went down as the HRRR model, which was way less snowy than the other models, finally moved significantly further north with the the 1” line now being from about New Hope to Somerville to NYC, which is still a bit on the low side of the model suite, but it was as far south as a Wilmington to Pt. Pleasant line.
The storm is staying south for now - Tyler didn't start getting snow until 9-10 in C-ville, but my friend who lives SE of Richmond has been getting snow since 8:30. Radar shows the storm stretches all the way past the VA coast. Tyler said once it started they got 2+ inches very quickly.
Fretting over small increases and decreases over a minor event
the hrrr has cut back on the last few runs, the euro and ukie and HrwFV3 and rap are around an inch or so for central jersey north of princeton
the nam really is the only model amped up 3-4 inch amounts that far north and it has a tendency to do that.
the hrrr has cut back on the last few runs, the euro and ukie and HrwFV3 and rap are around an inch or so for central jersey north of princeton
the nam really is the only model amped up 3-4 inch amounts that far north and it has a tendency to do that.
Sigh, you might as well have just told me Princeton in a neutral site game is on the MBB schedule again next year Bac
No significant modeling or forecast change for wave 1, this evening through Thursday sunrise, as per the updated snowfall map below; the 1" and 2" lines were nudged northward maybe 5 miles each vs. yesterday, while the 4" and 6" lines were nudged a few miles south. No change in the advisories (2-5" for Mercer/Monmouth and south of there in NJ and for 2-4" for SE PA from Lower Bucks SE to DE) or warnings (4-7" for Cumberland, Atlantic and Cape May). This will be all snow (and a dry, fluffy snow with likely somewhat high snow ratios of 1.2-1.3" snow per inch of liquid) for the event for everyone with temps <32F (and the snow falling at night) so every flake will accumulate on all untreated surfaces and slippery driving conditions will result through the Weds am rush hour even for areas that only get 1" or so.
This is a difficult forecast for northern areas especially for areas along/N of 78 as this area is the battleground between dry/cold air to the north and the moisture/snow from the storm well off the coast and is the area most prone to busting low or high - we're between the HRRR which shows very little snow north of 276/195 and the NAM/NAM3K which show a bit more snow than the NWS maps, with most recent 6Z and 0Z models showing snowfall amounts similar or maybe a bit less than the NWS maps. Will definitely be a radar-watching event there and even south of there to a line from Philly to Trenton to Sandy Hook (the 3" line), which is where the heavier snows start with 3" or more. The excerpt below from the NWS discussion is why they're on the slightly bullish side even for northern areas:
Plenty of large scale forcing will result in an expanding precipitation shield late Wednesday and especially during Wednesday night. A strengthening low-level jet will also enhance the lift for a time Wednesday night.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ads-for-each-will-be-added-as-needed/page/22/
Minor NWS-Philly update, although to be honest I can't see any differences in the new map vs the one from early today. The updated discussion finally said "2-4 inches for CNJ" (which they've been showing, but not saying) - obviously, per the maps, SE sections of CNJ are more likely to get 3-4" and NW sections are more likely to get 2-3", as per the swaths on the map. One thing I don't know but would like to is what snow/liquid ratios are they assuming? They use their own in-house tools for that as per previous conversations I've had with NWS mets (not Kuchera, which most mets don't take seriously), but they don't publish their estimates per location.
However, the NWS-NYC just updated and their snowfall map for their area, especially for LI, has been bumped up appreciably, as they now have advisories up for Nassau/Suffolk for ~3" of snow - that might bode well for increased NJ shore snowfall as they often are somewhat aligned. They also bumped up all of NYC to 2-3" of snow (was just the southern half of NYC at that level this morning.
Almost forgot - prediction time., I'll go with 2.8" for our house, as I think the storm will overperform a bit vs. the 2.4" forecast for Metuchen, due to good snow/liquid ratios and the jet streak dynamics the NWS has discussed, along with decent frontogenetics as per several models and almost all of the models increasing snowfall (a little bit) at 12Z (except the HRRR which is a major outlier and is obviously being ignored by the NWS and others). Would be a bit disappointed with <2".
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1259 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Overall, the near term forecast remains on track as low
pressure continues tracking east into the Deep South this
afternoon. As it does so, this low will transfer its energy to a
secondary low will form off the coast of North Carolina early
this evening. This secondary low will track off the coast of the
DelMarVa later on tonight. Overruning precipitation has begun to
develop out ahead of the low and move northward into DelMarVa.
Temperatures are now above freezing for most locations early
this afternoon. However, with dew points still in the teens,
wet-bulb temps remain at or below freezing across most of the
region. Therefore, as precipitation saturates the boundary
layer, surface temperatures will cool and snow is still
expected at the onset this afternoon. Light to moderate snow
will gradually progress northward through the the rest of the
afternoon and into the evening from southwest to northeast,
ultimately reaching the northern portions of the area by mid to
late evening. Periods of heavy snow will be possible over the
DelMarVa and portions of southern New Jersey this evening into
tonight as well. This is supported quite well in some of the hi-
res guidance which depicts a strong area of frontogenesis near
850 mb early this evening. This may pose a threat to some areas
across the central DelMarVa where some mixing issues may occur
later tonight. With this being said however, there likely will
be a localized snow band that develops with enhanced snowfall
rates. Where this occurs is still uncertain as we`ll likely need
to observe this in real time. However, the greatest likelihood
will be somewhere over the north-central Delmarva into south
Jersey.
Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through 7 AM Wednesday
where 4-7 inches are expected. Again, there will likely be a
localized maxima which receives greater than 7 inches, depending
on and if the heavier snow band develops. Snowfall totals
decrease further north with 2-4 inches expected over much of
northern DE, southeast PA, and central NJ. Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect until 7 AM Wednesday for these
areas. Across northeast PA and into northern NJ, snowfall totals
up to 2 inches are expected.
the nam is the highest outlier putting around 3 inches so I guess Numbers is rolling with that....all the other models including rap, hrv, and other 12z globals have less
the higher ratios could give the boost though so he could be right
the higher ratios could give the boost though so he could be right
If he’s right you have to be nice to him until the next storm.
Tis no longer global model watching time. Look at the meso models or look at the radar.
Our crack maintenance team threw down so much salt on Sunday we don't need to worry about snow & ice no more! I'm more concerned I may slip & fall on the new salt pavement we've installed.
Minor NWS-Philly update, although to be honest I can't see any differences in the new map vs the one from early today. The updated discussion finally said "2-4 inches for CNJ" (which they've been showing, but not saying) - obviously, per the maps, SE sections of CNJ are more likely to get 3-4" and NW sections are more likely to get 2-3", as per the swaths on the map. One thing I don't know but would like to is what snow/liquid ratios are they assuming? They use their own in-house tools for that as per previous conversations I've had with NWS mets (not Kuchera, which most mets don't take seriously), but they don't publish their estimates per location.
However, the NWS-NYC just updated and their snowfall map for their area, especially for LI, has been bumped up appreciably, as they now have advisories up for Nassau/Suffolk for ~3" of snow - that might bode well for increased NJ shore snowfall as they often are somewhat aligned. They also bumped up all of NYC to 2-3" of snow (was just the southern half of NYC at that level this morning.
Almost forgot - prediction time., I'll go with 2.8" for our house, as I think the storm will overperform a bit vs. the 2.4" forecast for Metuchen, due to good snow/liquid ratios and the jet streak dynamics the NWS has discussed, along with decent frontogenetics as per several models and almost all of the models increasing snowfall (a little bit) at 12Z (except the HRRR which is a major outlier and is obviously being ignored by the NWS and others). Would be a bit disappointed with <2".
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1259 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Overall, the near term forecast remains on track as low
pressure continues tracking east into the Deep South this
afternoon. As it does so, this low will transfer its energy to a
secondary low will form off the coast of North Carolina early
this evening. This secondary low will track off the coast of the
DelMarVa later on tonight. Overruning precipitation has begun to
develop out ahead of the low and move northward into DelMarVa.
Temperatures are now above freezing for most locations early
this afternoon. However, with dew points still in the teens,
wet-bulb temps remain at or below freezing across most of the
region. Therefore, as precipitation saturates the boundary
layer, surface temperatures will cool and snow is still
expected at the onset this afternoon. Light to moderate snow
will gradually progress northward through the the rest of the
afternoon and into the evening from southwest to northeast,
ultimately reaching the northern portions of the area by mid to
late evening. Periods of heavy snow will be possible over the
DelMarVa and portions of southern New Jersey this evening into
tonight as well. This is supported quite well in some of the hi-
res guidance which depicts a strong area of frontogenesis near
850 mb early this evening. This may pose a threat to some areas
across the central DelMarVa where some mixing issues may occur
later tonight. With this being said however, there likely will
be a localized snow band that develops with enhanced snowfall
rates. Where this occurs is still uncertain as we`ll likely need
to observe this in real time. However, the greatest likelihood
will be somewhere over the north-central Delmarva into south
Jersey.
Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through 7 AM Wednesday
where 4-7 inches are expected. Again, there will likely be a
localized maxima which receives greater than 7 inches, depending
on and if the heavier snow band develops. Snowfall totals
decrease further north with 2-4 inches expected over much of
northern DE, southeast PA, and central NJ. Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect until 7 AM Wednesday for these
areas. Across northeast PA and into northern NJ, snowfall totals
up to 2 inches are expected.
Another minor update by the NWS-Philly, where they decreased snowfall a little bit NW of 95 in CNJ/NNJ but did increase snowfall for the NJ coast and a bit inland from the coast in SNJ. Not big changes, but every little bit counts (they didn't change my 2.4" forecast though). Also included a few other local forecasts just as an fyi. News12 is the least bullish, with a 1" line south of 78 (vs. near or north of 80 for the others) maybe because they were way too high on Saturday. Channel 7 hasn't deviated their forecast at all really in 2 days and theirs is pretty close to the NWS (apart from their 3" line being 10-15 miles further SE), while Channel 2 is very close to the NWS. It's radar and nowcasting time. Snow is falling in Philly, Glassboro and Seaside, so it's not that far away and they're getting hammered in DC/Balt and VA/MD/DE/Cape May
One of the best NWS discussions (from the NYC office) I've read in awhile, as I thought they did a great job of explaining their rationale for rejecting the HRRR (better than I did, which is not a surprise) and for why they think the storm will overperform a bit: good jet streak, strong lift and frontogenesis with good snow growth in the DGZ, which should deliver 12-13:1 ratio snow (and some other things too). We'll see soon, as the NWS is generally predicting a bit more than most of the models, except the NAM.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
359 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure beginning to develop over the southeast this
afternoon and will push ENE off the southern Middle Atlantic
this evening into tonight. The region will continue to lie on
the northern periphery of the precip shield. The latest model
trends all support a bump up in liquid equivalent with around a
few hundredths well inland, around a tenth southern portions of
the Lower Hudson Valley and coastal CT, 0.15-0.20" in the NYC
metro, and around 0.25" across Long Island. The NAM still
appears to be the wettest of the guidance across the area,
especially across the southern half with as much as 0.3" in NYC
and near 0.4" across eastern Long Island. The 18z NAM has
lowered QPF just slightly, but overall remains consistent with
its last several cycles. Most of the 12z CAMs have come into
better agreement with the rest of the model consensus. The HRRR
is one of the drier models, but have noted it be to dry at times
in previous events when the region is on the northern
periphery.
There are also several key ingredients that support the trend
upward in liquid equivalent and resulting snow accumulation
including a stronger 700mb frontogenesis signal combining with
strong upper divergence from a 170-190 kt departing polar jet
streak to our north. Models do tend to struggle with the
combination of these features and have seen several past events
over perform with lift accompanying a strong upper jet. The
other factor is the majority of the model suite is indicating
enhancement of the precip shield from Southern NJ up into the
area at least the southeast portion of the area tonight as the
coastal low emerges off the coast. Thermal profiles are also
supporting an all snow event. Soundings indicate deep ice
saturation within the dendritic growth zone for several hours
tonight, especially across Long Island and portions of the NYC
metro. The strongest lift appears to occur between 10pm and 2am
with a decrease the rest of the night.
The snow will begin to overspread from the south tonight between
7-9pm, becoming steady and continuing through the early morning
hours. There is a period between about 10pm and 2am where
snowfall rates could run between 0.25-0.50" per hour. There is
even a low probability snowfall rates could briefly approach 1"
per hour across Long Island from around 11pm-1am as the
strongest forcing and deepest moisture combine. Snowfall rates
will drop off from west to east from 3am to 5am. Some flurries
may linger towards day break, but accumulating snow should end
before sunrise.
Snow to liquid ratios look higher with this event given we are
on the northern periphery of the low and soundings show more of
an ice saturation signal over one with deeper supercooled water
saturation signal. For these reasons have gone closer to a
12-13:1 ratio.
Updated snow totals are around 3 inches with potential of a few
spots approaching 4 inches across Long Island. Elsewhere across
the NYC metro and much of NE NJ and coastal CT, generally 1-2
inches are forecast. Locations closer to the south shore in
Staten Island and southern Brooklyn and southern Queens could
see up to 3 inches. More locations could see closer to 3 inches
in the NYC metro and NE NJ if a wetter and further north trend
continues. Amounts across the interior will be lower and
generally less than an inch as this area is closer to subsidence
from the high building in from the north.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
359 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure beginning to develop over the southeast this
afternoon and will push ENE off the southern Middle Atlantic
this evening into tonight. The region will continue to lie on
the northern periphery of the precip shield. The latest model
trends all support a bump up in liquid equivalent with around a
few hundredths well inland, around a tenth southern portions of
the Lower Hudson Valley and coastal CT, 0.15-0.20" in the NYC
metro, and around 0.25" across Long Island. The NAM still
appears to be the wettest of the guidance across the area,
especially across the southern half with as much as 0.3" in NYC
and near 0.4" across eastern Long Island. The 18z NAM has
lowered QPF just slightly, but overall remains consistent with
its last several cycles. Most of the 12z CAMs have come into
better agreement with the rest of the model consensus. The HRRR
is one of the drier models, but have noted it be to dry at times
in previous events when the region is on the northern
periphery.
There are also several key ingredients that support the trend
upward in liquid equivalent and resulting snow accumulation
including a stronger 700mb frontogenesis signal combining with
strong upper divergence from a 170-190 kt departing polar jet
streak to our north. Models do tend to struggle with the
combination of these features and have seen several past events
over perform with lift accompanying a strong upper jet. The
other factor is the majority of the model suite is indicating
enhancement of the precip shield from Southern NJ up into the
area at least the southeast portion of the area tonight as the
coastal low emerges off the coast. Thermal profiles are also
supporting an all snow event. Soundings indicate deep ice
saturation within the dendritic growth zone for several hours
tonight, especially across Long Island and portions of the NYC
metro. The strongest lift appears to occur between 10pm and 2am
with a decrease the rest of the night.
The snow will begin to overspread from the south tonight between
7-9pm, becoming steady and continuing through the early morning
hours. There is a period between about 10pm and 2am where
snowfall rates could run between 0.25-0.50" per hour. There is
even a low probability snowfall rates could briefly approach 1"
per hour across Long Island from around 11pm-1am as the
strongest forcing and deepest moisture combine. Snowfall rates
will drop off from west to east from 3am to 5am. Some flurries
may linger towards day break, but accumulating snow should end
before sunrise.
Snow to liquid ratios look higher with this event given we are
on the northern periphery of the low and soundings show more of
an ice saturation signal over one with deeper supercooled water
saturation signal. For these reasons have gone closer to a
12-13:1 ratio.
Updated snow totals are around 3 inches with potential of a few
spots approaching 4 inches across Long Island. Elsewhere across
the NYC metro and much of NE NJ and coastal CT, generally 1-2
inches are forecast. Locations closer to the south shore in
Staten Island and southern Brooklyn and southern Queens could
see up to 3 inches. More locations could see closer to 3 inches
in the NYC metro and NE NJ if a wetter and further north trend
continues. Amounts across the interior will be lower and
generally less than an inch as this area is closer to subsidence
from the high building in from the north.
Started snowing within the last half hour here in SE Monmouth
Very wet snow, Not sticking on streets or sidewalks yet.
Very wet snow, Not sticking on streets or sidewalks yet.
The best radar match right now (from a met) is the 18Z NAM3Km, the snowiest model for our area. Doesn't guarantee anything, but the storm is off to a very good start in VA/MD/DE/SNJ and it just started snowing lightly here, which is well ahead of schedule. And the HRRR (least snowy model) predicted radar at this time is way off.
Snowing in Hamilton, sticking to cars only so far. The snow looks very wet.
Snow started lightly here around 7:25 pm and we now have an official dusting as of 7:45 pm, but more importantly, intensity has picked up to moderate - this looks like 1/4" per hour snowfall and we hopefully have 6-8 hours of snow, so 2-3" is definitely possible, especially if we get some heavier rates by 9-10 pm as expected. We'll see...
Been snowing here in SE Monmoth for a about 1 3/4 hours. Still not sticking on the street. As Postman said said, wet snow.
As of 8 pm, we have 0.1" otg (just about 1/4"/hr rate) at 31F and snowing lightly to moderately - nice dendrites. The radar shows the decent snowfall rates falling off quickly about 10 miles NW of here, so this could be a close call all night unless the radar follows the NAMs and some other models and fills in towards Sussex/Warren counties for awhile.
