OT: Cold and Potentially Snowy Pattern Likely for Most of January
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Well, we're now within range of having some modest accuracy at predicting a potential winter storm for next weekend, which is 6-7 days out - not specific amounts of precip (snow/rain/mix) for specific locations, but the increased probability that there will be a winter storm affecting our area, with potentials ranging from a complete miss to a modest winter storm to a major winter storm (with potential for snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain).
Last night the 0Z Euro and this morning the 6Z GFS both showed major to historic snowstorms next Saturday into Sunday for large parts of the area (Philly-NJ-NYC) and the NE US, in general and tonight the 18Z GFS shows a monster snowstorm (1-2+ feet) for our entire area, while the 18Z Euro, which only goes out 144 hours, shows a major snowstorm forming off the coast, but doesn't go out far enough to show the outcome, but it certainly looked like it would be a major snowstorm.
That certainly sounds intriguing, but the 0Z GFS last night and the 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro today showed weak storms (due to lack of "phasing" of different pieces of energy, which is usually needed for a major storm) giving an inch or two of snow to our area next weekend and the CMC hasn't shown any major winter storms for us the past several runs (but has shown a winter storm or two that affects the deep south).
The setup is simply too volatile to have confidence in predicting any specific outcome, but it's clear that this storm has a much higher ceiling for us than tomorrow's ever did (it never showed more than 6-10" iirc), should all the ingredients come together as shown on occasional recent runs of some models. According to several pros (and my own recollection from 30+ years of tracking major snowstorms in this area), every major snowstorm we've ever had has always shown up, on occasion in the 6-9 day timeframe, but not consistently, like we're seeing now - it's not like any of these didn't show up at all until 2-3 days before coming out of the blue to bomb us.
All that truly says is that the odds of a significant to maybe major snowstorm next weekend are significantly greater than normal (which is probably <1% 7days out, normally), but probably still less than a 1 in 5 probability (that's a WAG; not going to give odds on something historic, which is always such a low probability, but not zero here). So, we track and if we start to see more consistency by day 4-5, we'll start a thread for it and by the way, every major snowstorm over the past 20 years has had a thread on it by day 4-5, fwiw; of course there have been many threads started on day 4-5 that failed to deliver much wintry precip, so no guarantees, obviously.
A thread on this threat has already been started on AmericanWx, linked below, where there are lots of pretty pictures and there's a nice discussion on the potential by John Homenuk, below. But just for giggles since others have done this and maybe folks are ok with it, I'm including the snowfall map for next weekend from the 18Z GFS. Please just keep in mind that many other runs are showing very little, so a big grain of salt is needed.
One more thing about the pattern: it still looks like we probably won't go over 40F from 1/4 through 1/25, with temps looking like they'll average 5-10F below normal, so there's almost no doubt the pattern will verify for being colder than normal, but the jury is still obviously way out on whether it'll be snowier than normal.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61463-jan-11th-12th-super-bomb-or-super-bummed/
Still seeing potential wintry weather from last night's 0Z models, with the GFS showing a major snowstorm from 95 and SE with moderate snowfall NW of 95, the Euro showing a complete miss, with a weak storm suppressed well to our south, and the CMC finally showing something with a minor to moderate snowfall (with the most at the coast, like the GFS). Obviously, with the huge spread in modeling, it's way too early for a forecast (or a thread, IMO), but it's worth watching...
The GFS model has shown this potential since Xmas. Certainly been pretty good.
The euro also shows the potential but takes the storm out to sea.
You can’t live and die on one model run..think the models have been pretty good..
So much has to go right to get the big one here. Everything goes right on the GFS.
The UK model which just came out shows nothing going right and absolutely no storm.
It’s so hard to forecast northeast storms because of this. But the potential is certainly there, will be interesting to see the euro this afternoon
The UK model which just came out shows nothing going right and absolutely no storm.
It’s so hard to forecast northeast storms because of this. But the potential is certainly there, will be interesting to see the euro this afternoon
Here's just Saturday's storm, non-Kuchera, since near the coast will be <10:1, while NW will be >10:1. Still somewhat of a fantasy until we see some consistency in the models, which I wouldn't expect for at least another day or two given how fragile the setup is.6z gfs went from this.....
to this (including todays snowfall)
It's not a "joke" - it's just the reality of chaotic, numerical weather prediction (models) where very small changes in initial/boundary conditions and the inaccuracy of the physics algorithms used for each calculation step in time over the entire globe, combine to make for highly uncertain solutions that will vary from run to run and even within a model, like when the ensembles are run 20-50 times with slight variations in conditions/assumptions. That's likely never going to change for setups like this 5-6 days out and certainly 7-10 days out.
it wont be interesting because its 6 days out and the models will literally change dozens of times, something to keep an eye on as we move within 3 days but anything else is just obsessing over models
Well said. However, the UK shows a decent snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic into the SE - it just doesn't make it up to here, so showing a storm is a step in the right direction.
step in the right direction for what...no one in the right mind would ever want what the GFS is showing
Have they incorporated the butterfly wing flap variable yet in the calculation of these models?
Yes, the Euro has a storm, but it's even further SE than the UK. But it has a storm. More importantly at this range is to look at the ensembles and the GFS and CMC ensembles are not that far apart, so there's some support for the GFS solution from the CMC ensembles and the Euro ensembles aren't terribly far off from an upper atmosphere perspective, but the evolution was just different at the surface over the last 2 days. So, a winter storm is very likely to occur somewhere between the deep south and our area and we're not going to know where it's truly headed for another day or two, at least.
Snow maps are useless at this stage
GFS still has a major storm. Which model will cave?
GFS still has a major storm. Which model will cave?
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It seems like you would outrun it. And in more important news, the Ron Jeremy avatar makes a cameo appearance.
Sharp cutoff for Central Jersey south. Latest run I believe. It's over lol
Its on its own...the Nimbers Model
The euro model is the one “on its own”. Most show a phased storm (which is what we need to get snow here). Though the euro shows no phase. Who will be right….
At 0Z, GFS is a significant snowstorm for most of our area, especially the coast, while the Euro gives an inch or two towards the coast, but is essentially out to sea again (similar to the past few runs) and the CMC and UK are also out to sea well to our SE, with all four models giving decent snowfalls to the deep south then some to SC/NC/SoVA before heading up the coast (GFS) or out to sea (Euro, CMC, UK); the ICON does give our area a few inches.
This system is on life support for being a major snowstorm for our area, kind of like RU's hoops season, although a minor to moderate snowfall (1-2"/2-4") is still a decent chance as even the Euro gave our area an inch or two. In both cases, it's not over yet, but if we don't see dramatic changes soon, they're toast. And the 6Z GFS is similar to 0Z with the Euro to come (UK/CMC at 6Z don't go out far enough to see). Great analysis of what's going on meteorologically by Tomer Burg, below, including why this system is much more complex and unpredictable 5 days out than today's storm was.
This system is on life support for being a major snowstorm for our area, kind of like RU's hoops season, although a minor to moderate snowfall (1-2"/2-4") is still a decent chance as even the Euro gave our area an inch or two. In both cases, it's not over yet, but if we don't see dramatic changes soon, they're toast. And the 6Z GFS is similar to 0Z with the Euro to come (UK/CMC at 6Z don't go out far enough to see). Great analysis of what's going on meteorologically by Tomer Burg, below, including why this system is much more complex and unpredictable 5 days out than today's storm was.
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At 6Z, the GFS gave 2-4" for CNJ/4-6" towards the coast and SNJ and looked pretty similar to 0Z, while the 6Z Euro made a significant move towards the GFS, going out to sea along the Carolinas rather than the FL/GA line and at least giving our area a 1-2" snowfall. If we see at least some snow for our area out of the 12Z models, even if we're not looking at a major storm, it'll be thread time, IMO.
Here's how I know we're getting hit with a big one on Saturday. It's a very complex, scientific model based on the fact that I still haven't taken my Christmas lights down yet and was planning on doing so on Saturday. A foot of snow that sticks around for weeks based on the cold conditions wouldn't surprise me at all.
Time for a thread. At 12Z, most models are now showing at least 1-2/2-4" for the DC-Boston megalopolis, i.e., the GFS/Euro/ICON and the GFS/Euro/CMC ensemble means show this, but the UK is still a miss to our SE and the CMC gives us <1" but has 2-4" only 50-75 miles SE of 95, which is much closer than the UK is. IMO and in the opinions of many pros on weather boards/twitter/etc., this means that a minor (1-2") to moderate (2-4") event is quite possible for the Philly-NJ-NYC area, even if a major snowstorm (8-12" or more) is still pretty unlikely.
More importantly, the Euro made a big jump towards the GFS at the upper levels and surface and is no longer tracking way out to sea, but not that far SE of us, like the GFS and the ensembles of the major models are all showing at least some snow for us, so the likelihood of a complete whiff has gone down significantly. However both a whiff and a major snowstorm are still possible if quite unlikely (and there are more than a few ensemble members - maybe 20-30% - showing 6"+ for our area, so a significant to major storm is still not dead yet).
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again your use of the word quite unlikely is wrong...its still a decent chance that its a whiff, we are still 4 days out and just getting to the point where we can start to figure things out. its a better chance of some snow but its not quite unlikely it whiffs
we went through this the last time when 4 days out you had posters thinking we were getting 3-5 inches in Mercer as the likely outcome
the GGEM and Ukie are not aboard and the Euro is an event similar to yesterday....The GFS has about 2 for Central Jersey and 1 for NJ and 3 south jersey. I disregard the Icon as a model....yes the cmc and gfs are the two models but thats not almost all
So, the cold and potentially snowy pattern has delivered on the cold for the eastern US and the snow, at least for the south and mid-Atlantic, but obviously not for most of our area (except far SNJ), but that might just change soon. With regard to the pattern, it looks to reload more cold weather for most of this week after seasonable days from now through Monday and then things look like they'll become more active with regard to storms with a few potential winter storms possibly coming next weekend through about 1/24. Beyond that it's looking like late January could also be fairly cold.
Nothing definitive yet on winter storms, but the Euro and GFS (and the AIFS - the AI version of the Euro, which has been quite accurate this winter) have occasionally been showing winter storms for our region (not necessarily all snow especially for 95 and the coast) and the ensembles all show elevated chances of snow for that the 1/19-1/24 period vs. normal. It's worth noting that all of those models have been showing nada after today's event through about 1/17 for 10+ days so it's not like they "always" show snow in the winter - far from it).
The CPC temperature outlook is for a bit below normal temps for 1/18-1/24 and the their precip outlook is for a bit above normal precip - that combo obviously makes wintry weather a bit more likely than usual, but it not a guarantee of seeing wintry weather. Also, it not being as cold as this past week or so likely means that we could see some mixed precip events (whereas the 1/6 and 1/11 storms ended up having so much cold air in place that the storm tracks were suppressed (and poor timing prevented phasing for today's storm, which could've brought a coastal storm closer).
Nothing definitive yet on winter storms, but the Euro and GFS (and the AIFS - the AI version of the Euro, which has been quite accurate this winter) have occasionally been showing winter storms for our region (not necessarily all snow especially for 95 and the coast) and the ensembles all show elevated chances of snow for that the 1/19-1/24 period vs. normal. It's worth noting that all of those models have been showing nada after today's event through about 1/17 for 10+ days so it's not like they "always" show snow in the winter - far from it).
The CPC temperature outlook is for a bit below normal temps for 1/18-1/24 and the their precip outlook is for a bit above normal precip - that combo obviously makes wintry weather a bit more likely than usual, but it not a guarantee of seeing wintry weather. Also, it not being as cold as this past week or so likely means that we could see some mixed precip events (whereas the 1/6 and 1/11 storms ended up having so much cold air in place that the storm tracks were suppressed (and poor timing prevented phasing for today's storm, which could've brought a coastal storm closer).
Sending positive thoughts to #s: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...s-in-usa-include-these-mountains/77259551007/
Article quotes an RU prof.
Article quotes an RU prof.
Nice article, thanks. I've known David Robinson for over 20 years as I met him at an RU event and we started chatting about weather. We were just emailing the other day about some errors I found in their New Brunswick annual snowfall totals on their NJ Climatology page. Very nice guy and a huge RU sports fan who goes to a lot of games.
