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OT: Cold and Potentially Snowy Pattern Likely for Most of January

Nice article, thanks. I've known David Robinson for over 20 years as I met him at an RU event and we started chatting about weather. We were just emailing the other day about some errors I found in their New Brunswick annual snowfall totals on their NJ Climatology page. Very nice guy and a huge RU sports fan who goes to a lot of games.
Ha, I figured you might know him. Cool that he's an RU sports fan!

I remember reading Mt. Baker's 1,140 in record years ago, which is also the world record afaik, thinking I'd never see anything remotely close. But two years ago when UT broke snowfall records all over, was looking like an outside chance for a bit. Topped out just over 900 inches at Alta.

Always wondered if there are mountains deep in the Himalayas, AK or somewhere that have gotten even more than the 1,140 but without anyone to record it.
 
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So, the cold and potentially snowy pattern has delivered on the cold for the eastern US and the snow, at least for the south and mid-Atlantic, but obviously not for most of our area (except far SNJ), but that might just change soon. With regard to the pattern, it looks to reload more cold weather for most of this week after seasonable days from now through Monday and then things look like they'll become more active with regard to storms with a few potential winter storms possibly coming next weekend through about 1/24. Beyond that it's looking like late January could also be fairly cold.

Nothing definitive yet on winter storms, but the Euro and GFS (and the AIFS - the AI version of the Euro, which has been quite accurate this winter) have occasionally been showing winter storms for our region (not necessarily all snow especially for 95 and the coast) and the ensembles all show elevated chances of snow for that the 1/19-1/24 period vs. normal. It's worth noting that all of those models have been showing nada after today's event through about 1/17 for 10+ days so it's not like they "always" show snow in the winter - far from it).

The CPC temperature outlook is for a bit below normal temps for 1/18-1/24 and the their precip outlook is for a bit above normal precip - that combo obviously makes wintry weather a bit more likely than usual, but it not a guarantee of seeing wintry weather. Also, it not being as cold as this past week or so likely means that we could see some mixed precip events (whereas the 1/6 and 1/11 storms ended up having so much cold air in place that the storm tracks were suppressed (and poor timing prevented phasing for today's storm, which could've brought a coastal storm closer).


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Summary: quiet this week, then some potential snow/wintry/mix events from about 1/19-1/23 and the polar vortex looks like it's coming around 1/20 for at least several days.

Details: So, after a quiet week this week (seasonable today and tomorrow, then well below normal through Friday with at most a few chances for flurries or a dusting), things could become active next weekend. We're now in the 7-10 day window, where patterns like this first show some winter storms on some model runs and we're definitely seeing that, as today's 12Z Euro shows a significant snowstorm (3-6" type event on the model) for the NEUS (including us) around 1/19 (day 7-8) and the 12Z CMC shows a significant snowstorm (also 3-6" event) for the NEUS (and us) around 1/21 (Day 9-10), while the 12Z GFS shows no storm in that timeframe, but the 6Z GFS showed a significant snowstorm (3-6" event) for the NEUS (and us) around 1/19 and we've also seen some runs with mostly rain, which can always happen with an inland track.

Operational models will often jump around from run to run at this juncture, which is why banking on a snowstorm this far out is foolish - this just shows there's potential. More importantly, the ensemble runs of these three models (Euro/CMC/GFS) have been consistently showing a few to several inches for the ensemble mean snowfall in the Day 7-10 timeframe (about 1/19-1/22) for a few days and continue to do so, which is a fairly strong signal for some snow. This is true even for the 12Z Operational run of the GFS which shows no actual storm (indicates many ensemble members and the mean show snow, while the Op doesn't, which implies the Op may be an outlier).

Beyond about 1/20, it's looking very likely that we're going to get a 4-5 day visit from the polar vortex, bringing very cold Arctic air into the eastern US (all the way down to Florida). For our area this will likely bring a string of days with highs below 32F (and likely in the 20s some days) and lows in the teens to single digits; very cool visualization of this in the first link below. Obviously, this is ridiculously far out for looking at snowfall potential, but clearly if there is cold air around, snow is very possible, especially when the cold starts to relent, as a fairly high percentage of our significant snowstorms occurs near the end of cold patterns with blocking, as per the 2nd link below and the accompanying graphic.





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Ha, I figured you might know him. Cool that he's an RU sports fan!

I remember reading Mt. Baker's 1,140 in record years ago, which is also the world record afaik, thinking I'd never see anything remotely close. But two years ago when UT broke snowfall records all over, was looking like an outside chance for a bit. Topped out just over 900 inches at Alta.

Always wondered if there are mountains deep in the Himalayas, AK or somewhere that have gotten even more than the 1,140 but without anyone to record it.
Ask and ye shall receive, lol. The Southern Patagonian Ice Field, where they get ~2000" per year, ftw!

 
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